|TJ| he/him Posted February 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 I - stop bringing up things that I cannot confirm or deny here smh >> And stop ganging up on me -.-' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis he/him Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 (edited) 9 hours ago, |TJ| said: I - stop bringing up things that I cannot confirm or deny here smh >> And stop ganging up on me -.-' You're right. This is beginning to look like an elim hammer. TJ. I'm watching you though >> Edited February 13, 2022 by Amanuensis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnatheon he/him Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 19 minutes ago, Kasimir said: Tani, Karn. Why would that be the natural train of thought? Why specifically consider the possibility of no Elims at all? Some conversion games begin with one converter - I know you know this as you and Maili played LG51. Do you think there are Elims now? Did this affect your approach to C1, and will this affect your approach to the prospect of a lynch today? Why? And why, instead of role madness? Going to suggest a Soothe instead, because another Rioter requires us to theorise yet another vote manipulator, and more interactions cancelling out, or them also trying to votejack you or me. It's not impossible but dear God would that be one hell of a mess. That game is why I suspected Conversion to begin with, because it was fun and I think Conversion is fun so I was hoping I guess, I even expressed disappointment you couldn't convert me when you pulled your gambit in the AG. And I suspected no elims because from a lore standpoint I felt it made more sense for us to all start good and become evil by using our powers. If this was a 1 elim conversion game I would assume all the village would be regulars until they were converted into auto evil Epics by Calamity. I think there is a minimum of 1 elim now if it is a conversion game, obvs more if it isn't. Yes somewhat. I didn't really suspect Mat or Stick or Archer but the Archer vote wasn't going anywhere so I switched to someone relevant at the time. And Mat had spent almost all of Cat defending himself so I went for Stick over Mat but voted Mat for anonymity in case I didn't want to claim later. If Mat flips elim then it's weird for it to be conversion cause he wasn't Epic or a convert role. A third rioter could have been voting on Mat or Stick and taken a vote off of me to put onto who they voted for case closed right? Since you moving my vote did nothing cause I cancelled it to move Sticks vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archer he/him Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 TJ please make PMs... this thread is six pages already (I'm kidding. This is great. Yaaay. I'm so happy.) 19 hours ago, Thaidakar the Ghostblood said: I forgot... also I am almost certain Mat was an elim. You're starting to develop a credibility problem with those naked accusations. If you do happen to remember, I'd love to hear your thought process. Helps us to read ya. 18 hours ago, _Stick_ said: Not really??? there’s been bunch of times when a village flip has given us enough info to incriminate others because there’s vote analysis etc. Right but the most helpful vote analysis is when you have an elim flip and can assume the elims tried to protect their teammate. Voting for elims is exclusively a villager activity*, whereas voting for villagers is something done by either side. Stick and Mat weren't diametrically opposed, so it's not a great info flip. Also I just realized that you're Stick. Hello! :D. 18 hours ago, Thaidakar the Ghostblood said: Jello eats squids. Skmurph ate squids too. He made it fun, turning it into a game. He hoped that one day, Netflix would shoot a show about the experience. 18 hours ago, Kasimir said: ... If you're telling me bloody TJ scammed me into signing up for a conversion game, we are going to have words. Conversion games can go to Braize! Sigh. Yes, yes, am Epic who forgot I was Epic because I filed my role mentally as Rioter. Have the feeling TJ won't let me live it down. Kas is an Epic whose weakness is conversion games. :P. That second sentence pings me. I think you did a lengthy look at whether Epics would be elim-specific C1. That's implies you aren't one, which can be a scummy thing to do, especially if they're unsure if Epics exist in the village or not. It can also be a villagery move to maintain an air of secrecy - but you claim you entirely forgot you were an Epic. But you also said you softed your name during C1. So you did remember you were an Epic. So that doesn't add up. 13 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said: Delightful. Appreciate you pointing this out, though, and will re-evaluate Matrim's posts I've skipped tomorrow. I'm very much not claiming a scan, sadly. I've played 60ish games and don't believe I've ever been given one, to my ongoing disappointment. This feels like a villagery mistake to make. 9 hours ago, Amanuensis said: Striker explicitly stated his role beat his weakness. Does yours too? Does @Archer's? wow that feels like a personal question, I barely know you bro My description mentions something I dislike, but I don't think it's a weakness. But I'm not going to get into that. To clarify what I've discussed, after someone whose alignment is not revealed dies, during the subsequent cycle, I submit three yes/no questions to the GM who returns a response during the next rollover. I think it makes sense that that's when alignments will be revealed as well, but that's just speculation. 9 hours ago, |TJ| said: It would take up an action slot yes. I noticed this thread doesn't have a 'please dont game break' tag', so now would be a fine time to mention that if items exist, we should be using Striker as an alignment scanner by handing him things and checking who ends up with them. If you think Striker might be a Thief whose playing us into that exact scenario, at least pass something directly to someone else and then we know you didn't submit the NK. That suggestion assumes an NK will at some point exist. My approach to conversion games is to act as normal and take out the original elims first, then hope you get more info later. So I'm hoping this round was a one-off. It's not unheard of for games to not have an elim kill C1 if the team is a little overpowered even. 5 hours ago, _Stick_ said: All I'll say is I haven't used it yet and probably shouldn't until I'm absolutely sure of my convictions xD It's got the potential to go horribly wrong or very right. 1 hour ago, Kasimir said: Given I joined you in the tunnel and then finally caved at Mat's last post, I'm not really sure I'm one to say anything. Annnd that's my problem with yesterday's exe. Besides the part where Mat almost didn't die, it felt a lot like the game where outed e!Thug me just spent like four IRL days arguing my innocence until people started doubting themselves enough to switch. Formatting aside, I appreciated the reads list, but I feel like if Mat knew his alignment would be hidden, he's capable of faking one. But here's where I get confused. Dying e!Mat would have for sure submitted the NK. He asked who was in the lead at one point, which I thought might have been him having some kind of vote manip, but his role flip disproved that. So he likely had a free action, unless it was a Soothe item or he passed an item. My gut doesn't think the fact that he died means it's possible for him to be evil, but I'm conflicted. And my gut about you, Kas, is that it'd be a mistake to so strongly push a mix C1 and use your vote manip you might have to claim and expose. But I believe your own argument that e!you would be forced into a slugfest because of your playstyle. :P. So if you could confirm your alignment with some vote manip on Striker, that'd be fabulous. 1 hour ago, Karnatheon said: I am also a Village Rioter *cough* Epic. guys you don't need to claim vote manip, we know it exists Speaking of vote manip, there was a weird exchange where Arman decided to 'keep their vote in reserve', faced with a split between Mat and Stick. Except they'd greened out Stick's name on their reads list so they should have wanted to protect them, so I was wondering if it was a ruse to hide the fact they're a Rioter. But they've claimed Regular. Why do you think Regs will be the first target of the elims, whoever said that? Wouldn't they hit the power roles? 53 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said: @Amanuensis To clarify something, I asked TJ about why I was not Evil even though I was an Epic. Because I was wondering how it would work story-wise for my character. And he basically said I have overcome my weakness. I do appreciate that you were willing to look at what I said in my claim and take it to its logical conclusions. I also have my own specific Epic name like Kas does. As far as I can tell, the name doesn’t relate to my powers, but it sure sounds like an Epic name. I've been meaning to ask, is your wincon compatible with ours? Will you be yeeted out of the game if you win? 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Kasimir he/him Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, Archer said: That second sentence pings me. I think you did a lengthy look at whether Epics would be elim-specific C1. That's implies you aren't one, which can be a scummy thing to do, especially if they're unsure if Epics exist in the village or not. It can also be a villagery move to maintain an air of secrecy - but you claim you entirely forgot you were an Epic. But you also said you softed your name during C1. So you did remember you were an Epic. So that doesn't add up. C1 was 48 hours, you know I made the Cobb memes in - probably the first couple hours, and I see I don't seem to have posted them in the thread, which tracks since I was softing Regular. And then by the time I was actually analysing what to make of you/Devo/TUA et al in my longpost, my head just went "Welp, I'm a Rioter so God only knows about the Epics." By about 1610hrs on Friday, according to my timestamp, it sank back in, probably due to some thread post or other, at which point I lampshaded it to TJ who proceeded to laugh at me. But I mean, if you want to get side-tracked and do another LG79 again... 14 minutes ago, Archer said: Why do you think Regs will be the first target of the elims, whoever said that? Wouldn't they hit the power roles? If this was me, to put it very simply - I wasn't referring to regulars. I was referring to Aman specifically. I've played in his heydays where the dominant Elim meta was predominantly threat kill and Aman and Orlok tended to either have very short lifespans or to have to do kayana things to stay alive/get people to stop sussing them. And then there was the IKYK/sussing angle of "You're a Village analytical powerhouse, so why are you still alive" that usually went down those games. I don't want this to go into the rep debacle again, so this is more me noting that as Aman and I are both aware of his typical in-game lifespan, outing himself as a Regular seems to only increase his vulnerability to the NK which seems - tactically odd from a Village perspective so why do that. 18 minutes ago, Archer said: Annnd that's my problem with yesterday's exe. Besides the part where Mat almost didn't die, it felt a lot like the game where outed e!Thug me just spent like four IRL days arguing my innocence until people started doubting themselves enough to switch. Formatting aside, I appreciated the reads list, but I feel like if Mat knew his alignment would be hidden, he's capable of faking one. But here's where I get confused. Dying e!Mat would have for sure submitted the NK. He asked who was in the lead at one point, which I thought might have been him having some kind of vote manip, but his role flip disproved that. So he likely had a free action, unless it was a Soothe item or he passed an item. My gut doesn't think the fact that he died means it's possible for him to be evil, but I'm conflicted. That's why I asked if the NK came after the lynch, because if it did, then maybe getting lynched blocked E!Mat from carrying it off. I do know Mat doesn't have the best history with checking with the GM (cf. MR49, MR53) but I feel like someone on that team should've asked it, seeing as the NK should be fairly important to them. It's not impossible but it's a tough pill to swallow IMO. 20 minutes ago, Archer said: And my gut about you, Kas, is that it'd be a mistake to so strongly push a mix C1 and use your vote manip you might have to claim and expose. But I believe your own argument that e!you would be forced into a slugfest because of your playstyle. :P. So if you could confirm your alignment with some vote manip on Striker, that'd be fabulous. So: I'm fundamentally willing to do vote manip this cycle, and I've mentioned I plan to, especially because that would mean I'm provably not putting in a NK But: A. You do realise, I hope, that as I've clarified, my vote manip doesn't work if a player doesn't first vote - hence Rioting. So if Striker isn't being cooperative (he currently has no existing vote), there's nothing I can do about it. B. If Striker is telling the truth about his ability, then I will get redirected to a random Villager. If the Villager did not vote, my Riot doesn't go through. If I get redirected to me, my Riot doesn't go through. Even if the Riot goes through, depending on what Karn and out other vote manips do, it may not be visible. I do think it's worth hitting Striker to try it out - but if you're talking in terms of alignment confirmation, there's a very high chance you won't get it. As far as I can tell, there are - three? Just three voting players right now. Even if Striker actually joins in and votes, it's more likely than not my Riot fails, in which case my vote isn't lost either. 47 minutes ago, Karnatheon said: A third rioter could have been voting on Mat or Stick and taken a vote off of me to put onto who they voted for case closed right? Since you moving my vote did nothing cause I cancelled it to move Sticks vote. Hmm, fair, yeah. 48 minutes ago, Karnatheon said: If Mat flips elim then it's weird for it to be conversion cause he wasn't Epic or a convert role. Fair, but I take it you then have low credences in a mixed team with one or two conversion slots? (This IMO is what Aman has been theorising.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Araris Valerian he/him Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, Archer said: Voting for elims is exclusively a villager activity* Yes. Only villagers ever vote for elims. 100% truth in this statement. Retracting from Karn, since I think he's kinda in the same mindset I was in the AG; village Rioter that is sort of confused trying to clear things up by claiming, especially in a situation where it doesn't make tons of sense for an elim!Rioter to claim. It's still weird to use your role for maximum vote swingyness I know there's lots of speculation about this being a conversion game, but I'm pretty sure that there was at least a single elim D1, since otherwise the village win condition would have been met and the game immediately ended. If this is a conversion game, then we can probably assume that the single(?) elim would have tried lying low last cycle. That doesn't mean that they wouldn't participate at all, since inactivity is a red flag of it's own. Of course, if STINK/Szeth/Dannex is the elim, I wouldn't expect them to vote (which I disapprove of, by the way). But for the sake of narrowing the pool, lets say we are in a conversion game with a single elim that voted last cycle, but didn't try and stir things up too much. That player probably would look for a conversion target in this pool as well. I'm going to exclude Kas and Aman for now, more comfortable with Aman, but I feel like they made more waves than elim!them would have. Similarly, I don't think elim!Tani would have followed onto Karn last-minute. Karn is out like I said above. My gut says that solo elim!Orlok would have tried to vote last cycle, but I'm not sure if that's actually accurate. Of the voters on Stick, that leaves Striker, Devotary, and Illwei. Solo elim!Illwei I could easily see doing the kinds of posts she had last cycle. Striker gave IRL reasons for his participation levels, though that doesn't entirely excuse him. Devotary was playing what I come to expect, but like I said before, I'm not a fan of the vote on Stick. This is my greatest current suspicion from the Stick voters. I've already passed up all the voters on Karn, which I think is reasonable for now. Of the voters on Mat, I'm not a fan of Exp for multiple reasons. I think his behavior fits nicely with a single elim, both this cycle and last. He's sort of tunneling on me while also making sure to be on one of the main trains come end of cycle. And I honestly need to go reread for the other ones: Ash, JNV, Thaidakar, and Archer. I'd hesitate to pose JNV or Thaidakar as elims in a conversion game because they are relatively new and TJ probably wanted someone that he could rely on to kick things off based on past activity. This isn't a great line of reasoning, since I think we've had new players be the starting elim in conversion games before, but I'm trying to cross people off my list and it seems good enough for now. So I'm left with Devotary, Illwei, Exp, Ash, and Archer. Need to take a closer look at the last two, but my vote's going on Experience for now. Devotary is my second choice. I'll also say that even if there are more than one starting elim this game, I'd say it reasonable to guess that one of them would have the activity profile I've suggested, and that my elimination here is thus not entirely useless. Oh yeah, @Kasimir, somewhere you had Devotary as a "do not vote" player, can you explain that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Szeth_Pancakes he/him Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 Oh Harmony. Can someone please give me a tl;dr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir he/him Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said: Yes. Only villagers ever vote for elims. 100% truth in this statement. :eyes: Uh-oh. 5 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said: Oh yeah, @Kasimir, somewhere you had Devotary as a "do not vote" player, can you explain that? If you're referring to my C1, I had two pools - will vote/won't vote, so it was very coarse-grained. She basically went into my "not voting for them" pool on the Archer C1 exchange on V!Epics - I felt she and Archer had crossed wires as she seemed to be making a RP point, but Archer was reading it as a roleclaim point. Which...tracks for Archer. Boiled down to me liking her point that Archer claiming V!Epic was a bold move (with the seeming implication that it's less likely for an Elim to want to do it.) Felt it was a nice reasonable take. I don't get any strong negative reads off her posts, but as of C2, she's back in null because of Stick train stability issues, which means I'm functionally indifferent to a lynch on her, with a commitment to re-assess once we actually have a Mat flip (and I have the bandwidth to do proper, focused vote analysis rather than sporadic thread stuff ) My question to you in turn would be: what's pinging you on Devo? Because she's never been the easiest player to read without vote analysis for me, minus one or two kayana games - and I think most of the times we found her, she was actually the mechanically-outed last Elim. So I think it's reasonable to assign more suspicion, but I just wonder what people are finding in her posts that I'm not, though I'm admittedly bad with pure post reads (as has been apparent enough times.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrikerEZ he/him Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Archer said: I've been meaning to ask, is your wincon compatible with ours? Will you be yeeted out of the game if you win? I can definitely win with the village. I actually won’t be yeeted out of the game. Part of my wincon is surviving to the end as well. 44 minutes ago, Kasimir said: A. You do realise, I hope, that as I've clarified, my vote manip doesn't work if a player doesn't first vote - hence Rioting. So if Striker isn't being cooperative (he currently has no existing vote), there's nothing I can do about it. B. If Striker is telling the truth about his ability, then I will get redirected to a random Villager. If the Villager did not vote, my Riot doesn't go through. If I get redirected to me, my Riot doesn't go through. Even if the Riot goes through, depending on what Karn and out other vote manips do, it may not be visible. I do think it's worth hitting Striker to try it out - but if you're talking in terms of alignment confirmation, there's a very high chance you won't get it. As far as I can tell, there are - three? Just three voting players right now. Even if Striker actually joins in and votes, it's more likely than not my Riot fails, in which case my vote isn't lost either. I would be willing to vote to help y’all out. I do worry about making things too mechanically solvable for either side, though. I do need time to complete my wincon. I’ll go ahead and plop a vote on Karnatheon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 4 hours ago, Kasimir said: Low key still tempted to hit Striker with a vote manip since per his claim, it should hit another Villager (well, not helpful to anyone with a low Village credence in me, but good enough for me from my perspective.) If enough people are voting, it might be indicative enough and visible in the result - my expectation is it should change my primary target rather than secondary, and TJ has confirmed this. Might not be singularly useful but might be nice to collect some datapoints and see if it's possible to narrow down a pool/patterns. Do you get told who you ended up rioting or would everybody just have to guess? 2 hours ago, Amanuensis said: To quote Archer from his reveal post: So like, Mat's role but not alignment was confirmed, right? Which means what's the point of a Medium role? To determine alignment? But Archer says that he can't do that, and that the person he talks to can lie, so what info is there really to gain that can't be left in a sayonara post like Mat did? Which leaves me thinking he's got something he can do to the recently dead player, but if someone lies about something important, it would end bad. Hence the Reviver conclusion, and a neat little explanation for why the delayed flip might exist. TBF Archer invited speculation when he claimed ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ if I can do it, the elims can certainly do it, and they're privy to more info than us so. Worth considering either way. Archer's role would still be useful for getting information from someone who was elim killed, although a villager with useful information still has to decide whether to trust Archer and then any information learned gets filtered through him. @Archer can you ask questions of everyone who died in the previous cycle or do you have to pick one? Karnatheon being a Rioter gives a reason to switch off from Archer since a lone vote that gets removed with evidence of Rioter activity puts them on a Rioter shortlist. Just that one vote manipulation would bring it from 7-4-4 to 5-5-4, which is dangerous for e/e Karnatheon/Stick. We should learn something about e/e Karnatheon/Mat soon since both Mat and Archer's claimed roles appear to only work for one cycle. 28 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said: Of the voters on Stick, that leaves Striker, Devotary, and Illwei. Solo elim!Illwei I could easily see doing the kinds of posts she had last cycle. Striker gave IRL reasons for his participation levels, though that doesn't entirely excuse him. Devotary was playing what I come to expect, but like I said before, I'm not a fan of the vote on Stick. This is my greatest current suspicion from the Stick voters. I've already passed up all the voters on Karn, which I think is reasonable for now. Of the voters on Mat, I'm not a fan of Exp for multiple reasons. I think his behavior fits nicely with a single elim, both this cycle and last. He's sort of tunneling on me while also making sure to be on one of the main trains come end of cycle. And I honestly need to go reread for the other ones: Ash, JNV, Thaidakar, and Archer. I'd hesitate to pose JNV or Thaidakar as elims in a conversion game because they are relatively new and TJ probably wanted someone that he could rely on to kick things off based on past activity. This isn't a great line of reasoning, since I think we've had new players be the starting elim in conversion games before, but I'm trying to cross people off my list and it seems good enough for now. Why don't you like the votes on Stick? Is it just your gut village read of her from last cycle? Is that also why you removed her from the pool of voters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnatheon he/him Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said: Why don't you like the votes on Stick? Is it just your gut village read of her from last cycle? Is that also why you removed her from the pool of voters? If I recall they said it was the fact no one seemed to really take votes off of them for most of the cycle which makes it seem like Stick wasn't an elim in danger. Edit: Quote I know there's lots of speculation about this being a conversion game, but I'm pretty sure that there was at least a single elim D1, since otherwise the village win condition would have been met and the game immediately ended. -Araris The village win con is to eliminate the elims. If elims don't exist yet they can't be eliminated so village wouldn't auto win. Semantics I know Edited February 13, 2022 by Karnatheon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 13 minutes ago, Karnatheon said: If I recall they said it was the fact no one seemed to really take votes off of them for most of the cycle which makes it seem like Stick wasn't an elim in danger. That only applies if the people voting for Stick were elims, since a villager's level of vote volatility doesn't say anything about the alignment of the people they vote for. Matrim we should find out about. Striker could be lying about being a neutral. Illwei I'm not currently thinking is evil, but would reevaluate with v!Stick. Aman and Tani did unvote Stick towards the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashbringer he/him Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 (edited) 4 hours ago, Karnatheon said: On Conversion. I didn't turn, Kas says he didn't turn. So that eliminates(assuming we're being truthful) the possibility that any Epic using their powers is auto converted. It's possible 1 epic who uses their powers each cycle is randomly converted, each Epic who uses their power has a chance to be converted, a certain frequency of use causes conversion I.e. using power multiple turns in a row, or the lone Elim is Calamity and they convert 1/turn. Generally people lie about being converted to the Elim team But you raise a fair point. Village Epics can use their powers. However, I think a guarunteed conversion, even after X turns, is quite unbalanced, considering there’s at least 4 Epics and there’s apparently no warning about power usage. Plus there’s the traditional mindgame about Conversion games, which is that sometimes converting gives you the best win chance. Given a choice between being essentially a vanilla villager or a roled Elim, that’s an… interesting choice. Of course, that’s assuming Epics corrupt in the usual way, which I doubt. If I had to guess, the “main” Elim uses an ability that Converts Epics and kills Regulars. Or has a Convert that only works on Epics that takes up an action slot. And we just had two Epic Rioters claim. Fun. Edit because new page and no one’s posted (Kas): I was the one concerned about the Stick train, because up to that point no one had gotten off Stick when some people had been on for a while. Seemed like a counter-train and I didn’t like it. Honestly at this point I think Mat was a Neutral. Knighthawk was almost always neutral, and it’s the only non-Epic role claim out of… what, 6 now? But idk. Could go either way. Edited February 13, 2022 by Ashbringer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir he/him Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 46 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: Honestly at this point I think Mat was a Neutral. Knighthawk was almost always neutral, and it’s the only non-Epic role claim out of… what, 6 now? But idk. Could go either way. If he was a neutral, why not just claim neutral? Meta is currently anti-killing the neutrals (hi AG7), and STINK's ISO gave him a good platform from which to just say "Actually, yeah, TBH, I'm neutral." Especially since Mat had also previously asked in thread about neutrals so he could anchor on his post and claim to be putting out feelers. Feel like saying "Yeah I don't seem Village because I'm neutral" especially after half a cycle of slogging and since he'd committed to dropping his role would go a longer way to keeping him alive than insisting he was a Villager. (Interesting though - E!Mat didn't take that option.) 2 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said: Do you get told who you ended up rioting or would everybody just have to guess? Yes So last cycle, I was just told my Riot was successful, with no targeting information. I've put in an official rule clarification request with TJ but from the looks of it, I don't get told so we would indeed have to guess - which is why I cautioned that this approach won't be a panacea, but more about gathering datapoints. Just gonna edit here: @Archer @Devotary of Spontaneity - I asked both cases anyway, and TJ just got back to me. The problems with mechanically clearing still occur with regard to B since as we've seen, it's written up as a traditional Riot. I apparently do not need Striker's cooperation after all (sorry Striker!) as TJ ruled that what matters is whether the redirected Riot hits a target that is valid (i.e. the target player has voted.) He told me PAFO on whether I'd be told if I got redirected, so I feel that the only way to find out is to put in a Riot order on Striker ( @StrikerEZ - my Riot order will be to Riot you on someone else, not yourself. I don't want to get you killed) for Science! 2 hours ago, StrikerEZ said: I would be willing to vote to help y’all out. I do worry about making things too mechanically solvable for either side, though. I do need time to complete my wincon. From my current point of view, I feel like the odds we're going to solve this anytime soon are very low But also, take this from the guy who thought Ash would 1v13 the Village, I guess. And if it's conversion, our odds of solving this fast drop - partly because of the delayed lynch info, still no sign of info roles, and the fact that as long as we don't know that a conversion has gone off, or how many there are/left, and I don't see us consolidating and getting things in the bag soon. And that's not even to mention Aman's thoughts on events causing conversion or other effects! As I think Aman, myself, and Archer said - I'm open to the idea of working together, if, as you point out, the Elims can't kill you, then there's very little they can do except be uncooperative (obviously can't help you there), and the idea of going for a mutual win even if it means finagling things a bit more carefully like we had to in AG7 is appealing to me. Would like to hear everyone else's thoughts on this. Also RIP, I forgot Thaid and STINK still have votes on you -.- My AG8 votecount curse continues. 56 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: Of course, that’s assuming Epics corrupt in the usual way, which I doubt. If I had to guess, the “main” Elim uses an ability that Converts Epics and kills Regulars. Or has a Convert that only works on Epics that takes up an action slot. And we just had two Epic Rioters claim. Fun. I feel like it's an assumption that only Epics corrupt anyway. If we have a Calamity-type conversion, Regulars, too, could be easily converted/corrupted and given a power-set. You also forgot that we have claims from Stick and Archer, with Stick mentioning interesting things about her power-set. Could be like your Sja game, where the choice is between converting or killing C1, which means someone has been converted anyway. Though I am not fully sold on the idea we are up against a conversion team partly because this would mean TJ scammed me into playing his conversion game Though low-key tempted to suggest they convert Karn since he actually wants to be converted, though it's better for the Village if I get converted Dear conversion Elim: Spoiler Dear Conversion Elim, if you exist: I'm rather flattered that you might've shortlisted me out of all the applicants to join the pool of suitably passionate and fun-loving candidates under consideration for the position of your convert. I mean, who wouldn't want to end up having to betray Team Village and become some maniacal, unethical mass murderer? However, I must respectfully decline. As I understand it, I am currently engaged in a most rewarding job, with the duty of expanding minds and introducing people to new ideas and a very high job satisfaction level. I have no desire to change my current occupation. I understand you must be in a very difficult position, what with about eighteen odd people trying to slaughter you. To make your decision easier, I've attached my resume to this letter. Kas's Resume: Spoiler Personal Information: Spoiler 100% transparent Village boi Executive Summary: Spoiler -Intense and driven Team Village player; does poorly and is unmotivated on Team Evil. -Loathes betrayal; is a poor liar. In particular, easily detected by Wyrm, Ren, Meta, and Wilson. Probably Orlok, Aman, Araris, Illwei, and TJ as well. -Poor history of play as a third party conversion faction: died early in the game. -Proactive attitude: fully believes in proactively sabotaging self before self can be converted. A student of the school of Awes and Alv. -Demonstrated organisational acumen coupled with poor problem-solving abilities under pressure. -Skilled communicator, with excellent summarising skills, but slipshod and shoddy analytic skills. -Master of sophistry but impractical at Sanderson Elimination. -Has not been Evil in at least six to seven years and therefore has no practical job experience whatsoever! Key Skills: Spoiler -Trolling -Sophistry -Summarising and communicating information -Multiple language fluency -Sarcasm -Strong sense of honour and fairness -Dying -Sacrificing self -TK/Friendly Fire Professional Experience: Spoiler 1. LG20 -Weak link in the 'Golden Team' -Gutted D1 Significant achievements: Checked out of the game after C2 and never came back 2. MR3 -Played as a Forgotten -Managed to survive to the end of the game due to Wyrm's incessant arse-saving Significant achievements: Forgot I existed 3. LG6: -Played as Padan Fain, a conversion Eliminator. -Was killed within three cycles, due to personal own-goaling. -Failed at manipulation and never betrayed Village. Significant achievements: Earned title of 'Good Guy Fain'. 4. LG5: -Played as an Eliminator (Ghostblood) -Spent most of the game doing nothing and listening to Awes and Alv. -No sense of initiative. Significant achievements: Peed self when talking to Wyrm and Meta and gave away own allegiances. All in all, thank you for your consideration. But you must now see why I am, overall, a very poor fit for your organisation. In addition, I'm extremely irreverent, which is likely a strict 'no-no' for the Evil villain vibe your organisation undoubtedly favours and directly contravenes your core values. I also deal extremely badly with the killing of innocent life, and I doubt you have a great mental health plan. Finally, I am exceptionally talkative in thread, so any shift in my views should be fairly easy to detect, resulting in an execution of your convert and a waste of your investment. Good luck with your ongoing job search, and I respectfully wish you a pleasant stay in Antarctica! Kind regards, Kasimir. What? I laughed when Awes first did this in LG6, and I sometimes like to make SE callbacks Devo's and Araris's exchange on Stick is making me relook at my pool of candidates. My vote is chilling on Karn but I'll go ahead and pressure Szeth - @Szeth_Pancakes. Thoughts on Mat or the lack of a NK? The tldr; you requested for is there's no NK, the write-up shows you the vote trains, and there was a last minute near-CFD onto Karn. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archer he/him Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 (edited) 4 hours ago, Kasimir said: [1]C1 was 48 hours, you know I made the Cobb memes in - probably the first couple hours, and I see I don't seem to have posted them in the thread, which tracks since I was softing Regular. And then by the time I was actually analysing what to make of you/Devo/TUA et al in my longpost, my head just went "Welp, I'm a Rioter so God only knows about the Epics." By about 1610hrs on Friday, according to my timestamp, it sank back in, probably due to some thread post or other, at which point I lampshaded it to TJ who proceeded to laugh at me. But I mean, if you want to get side-tracked and do another LG79 again... [2]If this was me, to put it very simply - I wasn't referring to regulars. I was referring to Aman specifically. I've played in his heydays where the dominant Elim meta was predominantly threat kill and Aman and Orlok tended to either have very short lifespans or to have to do kayana things to stay alive/get people to stop sussing them. And then there was the IKYK/sussing angle of "You're a Village analytical powerhouse, so why are you still alive" that usually went down those games. I don't want this to go into the rep debacle again, so this is more me noting that as Aman and I are both aware of his typical in-game lifespan, outing himself as a Regular seems to only increase his vulnerability to the NK which seems - tactically odd from a Village perspective so why do that. [3]That's why I asked if the NK came after the lynch, because if it did, then maybe getting lynched blocked E!Mat from carrying it off. I do know Mat doesn't have the best history with checking with the GM (cf. MR49, MR53) but I feel like someone on that team should've asked it, seeing as the NK should be fairly important to them. It's not impossible but it's a tough pill to swallow IMO. So: I'm fundamentally willing to do vote manip this cycle, and I've mentioned I plan to, especially because that would mean I'm provably not putting in a NK But: [4] A. You do realise, I hope, that as I've clarified, my vote manip doesn't work if a player doesn't first vote - hence Rioting. So if Striker isn't being cooperative (he currently has no existing vote), there's nothing I can do about it. B. If Striker is telling the truth about his ability, then I will get redirected to a random Villager. If the Villager did not vote, my Riot doesn't go through. If I get redirected to me, my Riot doesn't go through. Even if the Riot goes through, depending on what Karn and out other vote manips do, it may not be visible. I do think it's worth hitting Striker to try it out - but if you're talking in terms of alignment confirmation, there's a very high chance you won't get it. As far as I can tell, there are - three? Just three voting players right now. Even if Striker actually joins in and votes, it's more likely than not my Riot fails, in which case my vote isn't lost either. 1. I think I remember you trusting me fairly vocally C1. so I'm going to slide my theory that you tried to sus the Epics to set up a mix of me into the corner for now. 2. Items are a thing, and Regulars are more likely to get them, so it's possible he's got protection. Checkmate, elims! 3. Yeah, they had enough time to plan for Mat dying to figure stuff out. But part of me wonders if I'd have thought to check that... 4. That is indeed more complicated than I'd assumed 3 hours ago, Kasimir said: My question to you in turn would be: what's pinging you on Devo? Because she's never been the easiest player to read without vote analysis for me, minus one or two kayana games - and I think most of the times we found her, she was actually the mechanically-outed last Elim. So I think it's reasonable to assign more suspicion, but I just wonder what people are finding in her posts that I'm not, though I'm admittedly bad with pure post reads (as has been apparent enough times.) A lot of my suspicion centers around this post: Quote What has Stick said? I will flag her seeming to have a role (asking questions, although it also seems she was asking questions that she knew wouldn't get answered, e.g. are there neutrals so is potentially roleless) + instinctively assuming all elims are Epics. That's not really provable unless Stick dies though. She believes Archer's claim makes him likely village which does make sense but will be reexamined if he's evil. Much less concerned about the prospect of being exed than Mat is. Let's see if that applies when she's in the lead. Ashbringer, _Stick_. _Stick_ (5): Illwei, Matrim's Dice, Tani, Striker, Devotary Matrim (4): Ashbringer, Amanuensis, Thaidakar the Ghostblood, Kasimir Experience (2): _Stick_, Araris Illwei (1): Archer Ash (1): Experience Archer (1): Karnatheon I kind of want Mat to claim but that probably not a good idea since it would make v!Mat a target but likely couldn't clear him and E!Mat could just make something up or even be truthful. @Experience, what about looking at Ash's posts made you vote for him? The timing of it was fairly early for Devo, which makes me wonder if it's a reflection of the two main wagons being large enough that they felt comfortable committing their vote while taking advantage of the opportunity to not look like they're holding it in reserve suspiciously. Or they wanted to make sure their distancing on Ashbringer didn't turn into anything serious, hence the last line. The 'what has Stick said' opener presents it like they're drawing in a peripheral candidate to add pressure, except they were the subject of four votes by then so that doesn't make sense. The stated desire to see how they react to being in the lead is in a similar vein. I dislike when votes like that stick, which Devo's did, ignoring the baiting and other fun that went on near EoD. They checked in near the end and said "Enough push for Matrim that I'm still going to keep my vote on Stick," which is a weird way of saying they don't want Mat to die. Overall, my impression was that this is how elims park votes, either on v/v wagons, or in defense of Mat. 3 hours ago, StrikerEZ said: I would be willing to vote to help y’all out. I do worry about making things too mechanically solvable for either side, though. I do need time to complete my wincon. Do you have anyway of self-targeting to see if other neutrals exist? Would that even work 3 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said: @Archer can you ask questions of everyone who died in the previous cycle or do you have to pick one? It only works on one person. 3 hours ago, Karnatheon said: The village win con is to eliminate the elims. If elims don't exist yet they can't be eliminated so village wouldn't auto win. Semantics I know That would be an usual enough setup that I don't think it would have been approved. 1 hour ago, Ashbringer said: ...and there’s apparently no warning about power usage. Honestly at this point I think Mat was a Neutral. Knighthawk was almost always neutral, and it’s the only non-Epic role claim out of… what, 6 now? But idk. Could go either way. bold of you to assume we didn't all ignore obvious warnings in our excitement to use our newfound power :P. Based on the source material, I really like this guess. But Striker got a pass for claiming neutral, so I believe n!Mat would have followed his lead and made a similar claim near the end of the day to save himself. EDIT: ninja'd by Kas. Let us know how it goes! Go Riots, woooo Edited February 13, 2022 by Archer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashbringer he/him Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, Kasimir said: If he was a neutral, why not just claim neutral? Meta is currently anti-killing the neutrals (hi AG7), and STINK's ISO gave him a good platform from which to just say "Actually, yeah, TBH, I'm neutral." Especially since Mat had also previously asked in thread about neutrals so he could anchor on his post and claim to be putting out feelers. Feel like saying "Yeah I don't seem Village because I'm neutral" especially after half a cycle of slogging and since he'd committed to dropping his role would go a longer way to keeping him alive than insisting he was a Villager. (Interesting though - E!Mat didn't take that option.) ... Mat claimed before Striker, didn't he. Well, both times I've seen Mat play Neutral (where I can remember) he had a vested interest not to claim Neutral. Although that was 1) a Kandra SK and 2) Battar, who would get killed by Vyre if claimed, so who knows. Also the content of that role is innocuous on its own, but he left out the flavor of Knighthawk, which is interesting in the context of all the non-Reckoners-verse Epics. Really I don't have a reason besides that. It's just a gut feeling. Because this is weird / something is weird. I do think Mat had a better chance of being Elim than a random target (despite being a mostly random target at the start) because of the weirdities of the three trains, but this game is weird. 14 minutes ago, Kasimir said: I feel like it's an assumption that only Epics corrupt anyway. If we have a Calamity-type conversion, Regulars, too, could be easily converted/corrupted and given a power-set. You also forgot that we have claims from Stick and Archer, with Stick mentioning interesting things about her power-set. Could be like your Sja game, where the choice is between converting or killing C1, which means someone has been converted anyway. Though I am not fully sold on the idea we are up against a conversion team partly because this would mean TJ scammed me into playing his conversion game Though low-key tempted to suggest they convert Karn since he actually wants to be converted, though it's better for the Village if I get converted ... you know, I'm now realizing that I meant "Epics corrupt the usual way" as in Epics corrupting like in the books (power usage). I think it is like my Sja game, although I feel like it would be limited... depends how much TJ's sticking to flavor. But from what I've heard, I don't think he is. As for Stick and Archer... did Stick claim Epic C1, or just role? Archer is a possibility. But his ability that's claimed isn't all that dangerous, it just takes a little more info away from Villagers, info that in a normal game we wouldn't be getting in the first place. Also Converters going for the first possible target is risky... although good to know. 19 minutes ago, Archer said: bold of you to assume we didn't all ignore obvious warnings in our excitement to use our newfound power :P. Based on the source material, I really like this guess. But Striker got a pass for claiming neutral, so I believe n!Mat would have followed his lead and made a similar claim near the end of the day to save himself. Yeah, Kas would definitely do that More it circles back to if 4+ players all can choose to convert, and could theoretically convert all at once, something that would immediately break many many things. I said what I thought about Mat earlier, but it's a hunch. Also does anyone have a vote count? You're all doing a good job not tunneling and switching all the time but I've also completely lost track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir he/him Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, Archer said: 1. I think I remember you trusting me fairly vocally C1. so I'm going to slide my theory that you tried to sus the Epics to set up a mix of me into the corner for now. Kas: Probably not reassuring but in the interests of accuracy, even if it changes your theory, it took me a while to get there. Agreed with Devo (hence the reason I leaned Village on you, just noted I had a tactical disagreement and moved on) that it would be bold for an Elim, but hesitated because of paranoia over your history of bold Elim plays. By around mid-cycle (or a bit before that, can't recall immediately), had a long-post in which I talked myself into deciding you were Village, and then Aman's strong defense of you sealed it for me because his logic checked out and I went onto the V!Archer train and moved on to look for Elims elsewhere. 2. Items are a thing, and Regulars are more likely to get them, so it's possible he's got protection. Checkmate, elims! Kas: Would prefer V!Aman alive, yes. Where does the info on regulars being more likely to get items come from? Mat's role is very specific about creating motivators. Not to say there aren't items but I feel like there's a distinction between a role that creates one-shots and the idea of a stable pool of items. 3. Yeah, they had enough time to plan for Mat dying to figure stuff out. But part of me wonders if I'd have thought to check that... Kas: It's the obvious thing to check IMO and if I were Evil and the GM PAFOed my freakin' kill OoA clarification (he did PAFO for me, but I feel like PAFOing for an Elim would be rough), Mat's not carrying out the kill, full stop. But I grant that this might be a me thing as Steel was traumatised by the volume of rule clarifications I sent him. 4. That is indeed more complicated than I'd assumed Kas: Yeah. I'm still sending in the order because I think it's worth checking but I think you may need to moderate your expectations Yellow by Coldplay. 18 minutes ago, Archer said: Do you have anyway of self-targeting to see if other neutrals exist? Would that even work I like this thought. 18 minutes ago, Archer said: It only works on one person. That's interesting. I don't think we have a vig kill but you never know - @|TJ| are vig kills and NKs distinguished? - but otherwise, unless they actually actively sacrifice a teammate, feels like the person you talk to is almost necessarily confirmed V if you go with the NK victim. 20 minutes ago, Archer said: That would be an usual enough setup that I don't think it would have been approved. Wyrm ran something like that and I co-GMed it but the win con was a bit more complicated. Generally agree with this take. 20 minutes ago, Archer said: The 'what has Stick said' opener presents it like they're drawing in a peripheral candidate to add pressure, except they were the subject of four votes by then so that doesn't make sense. The stated desire to see how they react to being in the lead is in a similar vein. I dislike when votes like that stick (Kas: I see what you did there), which Devo's did, ignoring the baiting and other fun that went on near EoD. They checked in near the end and said "Enough push for Matrim that I'm still going to keep my vote on Stick," which is a weird way of saying they don't want Mat to die. Okay, fair. I'll agree with this evaluation - the vote stuck, and as I recall, Devo played it out as: On 2/13/2022 at 4:47 AM, Devotary of Spontaneity said: that doesn't mean I should immediately unvote when I get a response. Stick did eventually indicate a strong desire to live, but I also wanted to see how other people would react to Stick having votes and it turns out that some people voted for Mat while others created an entirely new train on Karnatheon while net votes on Stick decreased, which reads as people not wanting Stick dead. The vote manips tell a different story, with a bunch of votes being removed from Mat and Karnatheon while one was added to Stick which suggests did want to save the former two and were okay with the latter dying so I don't know what's going on. But I assume this has to be minimally a preference for Stick over Mat or disinterest in the trains, and the latter is mildly scary given pretty much everyone baiting (even Aman) had an interest. So alright, guess I'm due a re-read of Devo's C2. If we're committed to V/V Mat/Stick, then I assume this becomes weirder for E!Devo, but I'm not sure I'm committed to V/V Mat/Stick. But my train stability issue is different from the Karn-Devo interaction there - Ash flagged it out, but my train stability issue is that stable trains seem to indicate people aren't especially concerned or committed to rethinking, which is hella scary given the number of people pointing out there wasn't strong reasoning for the Stick train (sure, you could argue the Mat train was a tunnel, but I re-evaluated the reasons myself and the asymmetry was obvious, which makes a number of the votes seem opportunistic.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashbringer he/him Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 Hey @Illwei (or another Mafia expert) - are there ever MU or other games that have Arsonist Converters? Ie they tag a bunch of people and then convert them to their faction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir he/him Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 (edited) 34 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: ... Mat claimed before Striker, didn't he. Well, both times I've seen Mat play Neutral (where I can remember) he had a vested interest not to claim Neutral. Although that was 1) a Kandra SK and 2) Battar, who would get killed by Vyre if claimed, so who knows. Also the content of that role is innocuous on its own, but he left out the flavor of Knighthawk, which is interesting in the context of all the non-Reckoners-verse Epics. Possible he thought that this was leaning too much into GM PM info? Because I really didn't dare to go into Cobb territory for fear of breaking rules, and DMing Elan indicated that this has to be handled carefully for reasons. Either way: 5 hours ago, Archer said: To clarify what I've discussed, after someone whose alignment is not revealed dies, during the subsequent cycle, I submit three yes/no questions to the GM who returns a response during the next rollover. Not to say he can't still be neutral tomorrow, but I think minimally, we're committed to the claim we can't know right now, so I'd agree it could go either way. Otherwise, Archer can't play twenty questions with Mat. 34 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: As for Stick and Archer... did Stick claim Epic C1, or just role? Archer is a possibility. But his ability that's claimed isn't all that dangerous, it just takes a little more info away from Villagers, info that in a normal game we wouldn't be getting in the first place. Also Converters going for the first possible target is risky... although good to know. I would not lean too hard on them being the immediate converts, no. I think the 'only Epics can convert' assumption is dangerous (and then watch Mat flip E tomorrow and a decent chunk of the conversion talk ends up wasted ) and I'd agree it'll probably functionally work like your Sja game if so. Though speaking of your Sja game... Spoiler Obviously a lot of it is at the mercy of a converter Elim's strategic picture. I could see what happened in your Sja game again, where they go for a low profile convert first in order to get a person to put in the kills (with the actions economy, roles might even be unattractive for an initial convert) and leave the chatty people to side-eye and ML each other first. A more inexperienced Sja isn't impossible, as Araris noted, but might favour a different convert profile to hold down the fort. And so on. I'm going to repeat what Awes told me in the MR1 dead doc, which is that sometimes you just have to accept you don't have enough information at the moment to constructively make an informed assessment. I think the solo converter issue really matters only insofar as we're choosing between two worlds: A. E!Mat put in the kill; the lynch came first, and he was blocked. (Or the kill went in on Striker, or the kill went in on Mat but not because he was V Mat, but because there was last minute panic over the swing to Karn...) This world entails there's a team we can find. We just have to treat it like a straight-up SE game. In this world, my reads list straightforwardly applies, though I'm rethinking some people at the moment. Trying to work out how I feel about Tani, Karn, and Devo, since I agree with what Archer flagged. B. Corrupter converted someone. This world entails we have to look more carefully because there's a smaller footprint. In particular, I do think the Corrupter would steer clear of the last minute Karn mess C1 so I am agreed with Araris's analysis on that front - too much volatility, and they would by definition be aware that any late movement involving V/V/V trains would be poorly-received, so they would choose to steer clear. We have to look at people who were disengaged or had stable votes. In this world, I would put as my pool the entire set of semi-actives who weren't involved in volatility: <Mint, TUA, Danex, JNV, Szeth, Orlok>, technically, you too, and I feel that some of the EoC stable voters could apply too, e.g. Devo, Stick (but then this is a bit odd because it makes our three trains all Village-on-Village action which is not impossible but possibly not the most appealing pill to swallow.) [Edited to add: Illwei would work too.] Disagree with Araris about Experience, though I worry I'm overanchoring on Experience's stated willingness to die for Mat, so I guess I need to relook Experience. Due to actions economy, it can't be Karn or myself, and there's no Rioting counterclaim anyway. In theory could be Archer and/or Striker but that's easily disproven. Feels like the best way to split the difference is to vote on someone suspicious in both worlds. This is a brief analysis, again, need a relook. 34 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: Also does anyone have a vote count? You're all doing a good job not tunneling and switching all the time but I've also completely lost track. Who you gonna call? Someone else Edited February 13, 2022 by Kasimir 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashbringer he/him Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 14 minutes ago, Kasimir said: Possible he thought that this was leaning too much into GM PM info? Because I really didn't dare to go into Cobb territory for fear of breaking rules, and DMing Elan indicated that this has to be handled carefully for reasons. Pretty sure his role was technically "Scientist of the Knighthawk", so that's probably fine to say. Mat didn't. Fair point on the rules thing though. (Cobb / whatever his full name is is your role name, right? Idk if that's important.) 16 minutes ago, Kasimir said: I would not lean too hard on them being the immediate converts, no. I think the 'only Epics can convert' assumption is dangerous (and then watch Mat flip E tomorrow and a decent chunk of the conversion talk ends up wasted ) and I'd agree it'll probably functionally work like your Sja game if so. Though speaking of your Sja game... Thing is it goes back to flavor choices again. If conversion is making an E!Epic out of a V!Vanilla, then that's directly Calamity or someone channeling Calamity a la... what's her name? Regalia. ... wait a minute, the whole origin writeup was about flooding. Whatever. Anyway, that's canon accurate but also limiting on what's actually going on. Making E!Epics out of V!Epics would assumedly be using powers too much causing corruption, which I've ruled out because of how widespread panic that would cause. Or it's a normal Sja-esque (or normal, Sja technically wasn't normal) conversion game, with an Epic that can just do that. 22 minutes ago, Kasimir said: In this world, I would put as my pool the entire set of semi-actives who weren't involved in volatility: <Mint, TUA, Danex, JNV, Szeth, Orlok>, technically, you too Let's be honest, my vote stayed on the same person for 48 hours. That's the definition of not volatile (I was asleep during the Karn mess, though. Doubt I would have moved after already panicking about counter-Stick but still.) I guess of that pool, TUA is the most interesting because of a Vanilla claim. Means they'd be both a decent first convert and a decent Converter... but I know I tend to tunnel on TUA so I'll discount that. Plus, again, too obvious. Orlok was definitely reading the thread a few times C1, just never posted until 5 hours before rollover. Also my Archer paranoia is acting up again. aaaah 28 minutes ago, Kasimir said: Who you gonna call? Ghost-busters! ... I'll see myself out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Archer said: The 'what has Stick said' opener presents it like they're drawing in a peripheral candidate to add pressure, except they were the subject of four votes by then so that doesn't make sense. The stated desire to see how they react to being in the lead is in a similar vein. I dislike when votes like that stick, which Devo's did, ignoring the baiting and other fun that went on near EoD. They checked in near the end and said "Enough push for Matrim that I'm still going to keep my vote on Stick," which is a weird way of saying they don't want Mat to die. Overall, my impression was that this is how elims park votes, either on v/v wagons, or in defense of Mat. There were a bunch of votes on Stick, and I wanted to see if there was anything she'd said that was provoking those votes. I kept my vote on Stick because the thread response to her being in the lead was to add more votes to Mat, and the counter to that push was on an entirely different person. I am defending Mat because when two people are in danger and significantly more effort is put into protecting one of them, that one is more likely to be elim. If Mat/Stick were v/e, I'd expect elims to have been perfectly happy voting on Stick instead. Karnatheon voting for Mat while intending all along to swing votes onto Stick does complicate things but e/e Mat/Karnatheon would still be a tie at best without more votes for Stick. I'd prefer to see Mat's alignment before voting for Stick again, but the more people pop up to say the votes on Stick were wrong the more I feel like that's a good vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrikerEZ he/him Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Kasimir said: Just gonna edit here: @Archer @Devotary of Spontaneity - I asked both cases anyway, and TJ just got back to me. The problems with mechanically clearing still occur with regard to B since as we've seen, it's written up as a traditional Riot. I apparently do not need Striker's cooperation after all (sorry Striker!) as TJ ruled that what matters is whether the redirected Riot hits a target that is valid (i.e. the target player has voted.) He told me PAFO on whether I'd be told if I got redirected, so I feel that the only way to find out is to put in a Riot order on Striker ( @StrikerEZ - my Riot order will be to Riot you on someone else, not yourself. I don't want to get you killed) for Science! I appreciate you not wanting to get me killed. 1 hour ago, Kasimir said: From my current point of view, I feel like the odds we're going to solve this anytime soon are very low But also, take this from the guy who thought Ash would 1v13 the Village, I guess. And if it's conversion, our odds of solving this fast drop - partly because of the delayed lynch info, still no sign of info roles, and the fact that as long as we don't know that a conversion has gone off, or how many there are/left, and I don't see us consolidating and getting things in the bag soon. And that's not even to mention Aman's thoughts on events causing conversion or other effects! As I think Aman, myself, and Archer said - I'm open to the idea of working together, if, as you point out, the Elims can't kill you, then there's very little they can do except be uncooperative (obviously can't help you there), and the idea of going for a mutual win even if it means finagling things a bit more carefully like we had to in AG7 is appealing to me. Would like to hear everyone else's thoughts on this. Also RIP, I forgot Thaid and STINK still have votes on you -.- My AG8 votecount curse continues. Hmm, you’re right that it’s probably not going to be super easy to mechanically solve this if there’s conversion shenanigans going on. Technically the elims could help me if PMs became open, though that would only be useful if they could gather knowledge for me. I would appreciate the effort at trying to work to achieve a mutual wincon with myself and as many people as possible. 1 hour ago, Archer said: Do you have anyway of self-targeting to see if other neutrals exist? Would that even work My power is, sadly, a passive ability. That is an interesting idea though. But if another neutral existed, I don’t think we would be on the same team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Experience he/him Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 I believe these are all the posts that have my name in them, sorry if I missed any. I've read the entire thread, but am just responding to these at the moment cause time. I'm going to highlight the parts of orlok's table that I respond to in pink so that it's easier to refind. Spoiler 22 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said: I've apparently forgotten how to play this game without putting in more effort than I wanted to, and more than I enjoy. In the interests of looking after myself, I'll post what I've got now, and will carry on tomorrow. Cycle Post Player Summary Vote Retractions Thoughts AI (perceived) Notable connections One 1 TJ Writeup GM GM GM GM GM One 2 Experience Asks if PMs are open N/A N/A Trivial to check in rules. Performative? Mild evil None One 3 TJ Clarifies that PMs are closed GM GM GM GM GM One 4 Kasimir Answers Experience, says PMs default closed, but may open. N/A N/A Has read rules NAI None One 5 Ashbringer Poke vote on Matrim's Dice, no content Matrim's Dice N/A Prepared to vote early Unsure Votes on Matrim's Dice One 6 Archer Suggests wording of TJ's PM clarification makes a PM role less likely, but that they had been assuming one. Votes on Kas. RP Kasimir N/A Blackout game - interesting to assume anything. Reason for making speculation public? Vote on Kas - who has engaged. Value? Not putting pressure as not given reason, so why Kas? Ask. Very mild evil Votes on Kasimir One 7 Thaidakar the Ghostblood Asks how this works, says first game, needs to know ehther we vote each post N/A N/A Consider giving benefit of doubt. However, reading even one page of one game would give answer to this, feels very much like playing up being new Moderate evil None One 8 Kasimir RP, poke vote on Devotary. Asks TJ to get IM to give Thaidakar information on how to play. Tells Thaidakar how to vote. Devotary N/A Feels genuine re Thaidakar - might be prepared to rule out Thaidakar/Kasimir e/e. Doesn't address Archer, but nothing to address If Thaidakar evil, moderate village Helpful/genuine to Thaidakar, poke votes Devotary One 9 Experience Quotes Archer RP, thinks they've found "the krrok", votes on Archer. RPs Archer N/A Presume vote is RP related, not sure I follow. Archer not unreasonable vote given vote on Kas Likely NAI Votes on Archer One 10 Illwei Votes on Dannnex Dannnex N/A Poke vote NAI Votes on Dannnex One 11 Experience Makes bad joke about Illwei's post N/A N/A None NAI None One 12 Illwei Suggests Experience's joke is a dad joke N/A N/A None NAI None One 13 Ashbringer Answers Thaidakar about whether they have to vote in every post N/A N/A None NAI Helpful to Thaidakar One 14 Dannnex Votes on TJ, suggests it's a joke TJ N/A Has worked in some games, doesn't contribute to thread NAI None One 15 Matrim's Dice Votes on Thaidakar, says "hi", doesn't want to kill them, asks if they've read the rules/etiquette thread. Will RP, is glad that there won't be D1 distro discussion Thaidakar N/A Friendly post. Agree that distribution discussion often of limited value. NAI Friendly vote on Thaidakar One 16 Stick Multiquotes a number of posts. Agrees with Archer that PMs might come from an event. Explains how game works to Thaidakar. N/A N/A None NAI None One 17 TJ Unimpressed meme in response to Dannnex's vote GM GM GM GM GM One 18 Kasimir Makes joke in response to TJ meme N/A N/A None NAI None One 19 Thaidakar the Ghostblood Votes on Dannnex, clarifies they do not want to kill them Dannnex N/A Unsure. Could be eliminator overworrying about poke vote, or could be villager not understanding meta. Why Dannnex? Unsure Votes on Dannnex One 20 Archer Says last game e!JNV was asking questions like that (like what? Presume like one asked by Thaidakar?). Suggests non-partisan assistance the way to go. Asks if anyone else got a weirdly specific role TJ is PAFOing questions about. Asks Thaidakar what their plan is given their clarification about Dannnex N/A N/A Making role claim of game material consequence. Baiting a kill/pretending to to justify not being attacked later on? More likely latter, could equally be baiting roles investigating to discover targets? Very mild village None One 21 Stick Comments on TJ's meme N/A N/A None NAI None One 22 Matrim's Dice Asks for clarification from Archer on e!JNV N/A N/A Fair question None Less likely e!Matrim/e!Archer One 23 Kasimir Comments on Archer's thoughts on Thaidakar/JNV parallels. Questions whether Thaidakar playing up new player image, considers it currently NAI N/A N/A Agree worth acknowledging possibility. NAI Acknowledges possibility of e!Thaidakar One 24 Archer Says they didn't mean JNV but meant JungleFiend N/A N/A Verifiable NAI None One 25 Stick Quotes aArcher, notes their role claim. Also claims to have been bombarding TJ with questions, and to have recieved PAFOs in response. N/A N/A Also, therefore, claiming a role. Question whether gained any information more widely useful from questions. If claiming early possession of role, then potential target regardless - value in claiming specifics of role? Unless knows game role madness (TMI?) and therefore feels safe claiming? Mild evil Questions Archer One 26 TJ Clarifies meme GM GM GM GM GM One 27 Szeth Pancakes Explicit poke vote on StrikerEZ StrikerEZ N/A None NAI Poke votes on StrikerEZ One 28 Matrim's Dice Has asked GM question that wasn't PAFO'd. N/A N/A What was question about? NAI None One 29 Kasimir Expresses incredulity at questions being asked N/A N/A Attempting to suggest no role? NAI None One 30 Ashbringer Comments on Fog/Frog confusion N/A N/A None NAI None One 31 Thaidakar the Ghostblood Responds to Archer, says they said they didn't want to kill Dannnex when voting on them because Dannnex said the same to them N/A N/A Feels genuine, mistaken about who voted on them Mild village None One 32 Stick Says asking questions knowing they'll receive PAFOs, asking anyway N/A N/A Reinforcing roleclaim? Unsure None One 33 TJ Comments on title confusion GM GM GM GM GM One 34 Devotary RP, votes on Ashbringer for RP reasons Ashbringer N/A Reasonable poke vote target NAI Poke/RP vote on Ashbringer One 35 Kasimir Makes comments on title puns N/A N/A None NAI None One 36 Tani Questions TJ about his meme N/A N/A None NAI None One 37 Dannnex Tells Thaidakar it was Matrim's Dice who voted on them N/A N/A None NAI None One 38 Matrim's Dice Corrects Thaidakar about having voted on them. Suggests Szeth's poke vote might be a Szeth elim tell, but could just be normal behaviour N/A N/A Gut dislike of equivocation on Szeth Very mild evil None One 39 Kasimir Quotes Matrim's Dice about Szeth, retracts on Devotary, votes on Matrim. Matrim's Dice Devotary If vote is from quote, understandable Very mild good Votes on Matrim's Dice One 40 Illwei Doesn't believe Thaidakar e/e with Dannnex or Matrim's Dice. Thinks Matrim probably village for not voting on Szeth N/A N/A I disliked the equivocation on Szeth, but can see how it could be seen as uncertain villager. Agree re Thaidakar. Attempt to solve game Mild good Matrim more likely village One 41 Thaidakar the Ghostblood Apologises for getting Matrim and Dannnex confused, says their head exploded from amount they're keeping track of N/A N/A Not sure too much to keep track of at this point? Mild evil None One 42 Matrim's Dice RP. Replies to Kasimir about a "shuffle squat" N/A N/A Unsure what they're referring to NAI None One 43 Kasimir Questions Matrim about his Szeth equivocation N/A N/A Agree worth probing Unsure Interrogating Matrim One 44 Archer Quotes Devotary's RP, asks them whether they're claiming not to be an epic. Says Matrim's take is interesting N/A N/A Reinforces claim to be an Epic. Question why insistent on role claiming Unsure None One 45 Thaidakar the Ghostblood Votes on Archer Archer Dannnex Archer definitely up to something, unsure whether villager gambit or elim. Absence of justification makes me suspect less likely elim jumping on this Moderate village Votes on Archer One 46 Matrim's Dice Meant that they thought Szeth's poke vote was just something Szeth does. Asks Thaidakar why they voted on Archer N/A N/A Unclear therefore why they posted it Mild evil None One 47 Devotary Responds to Archer, says that Reckoners are famously not Epics. N/A N/A Not a village aligned Epic, isn't aware of them Very marginally more likely evil None One 48 Tani Votes on TJ TJ N/A Not useful NAI None One 49 Thaidakar the Ghostblood Says vote on Archer due to gut N/A N/A Feels good from new player - I think an elim more likely to justify themselves Mild village None One 50 Araris RP. Suggests Thaidakar be responsible with vote placing. Assists Kas with "shuffle thing" votes on Mat Matrim's Dice N/A Equally, voting gives more information to consider. What is meant by shuffle thing? Unsure Votes on Matrim's Dice One 51 Stick Votes on Tani, makes joke about them wanting a train on TJ Tani N/A Not a serious vote NAI Joke vote on Tani One 52 Experience Asks whether Archer has an Epic role they want to tell us about N/A N/A Archer has been hinting at a role - worth questioning it. Think questioning it is NAI. Also unaware of village aligned Epics - marginally more likely to be evil NAI Questions Archer One 53 Thaidakar the Ghostblood Reacts to Araris with alarm, says did not realise vote is tool meant to kill someone N/A N/A Respectfully, fairly basic part of game that vote to lynch. Feels like performative overreaction Moderate evil None One 54 Matrim's Dice Replies to Araris, suggests voting also a tool to gauge reactions to being voted on, takes Thaidakar's misunderstanding at face value. Says only they and Kas can shuffle. N/A N/A Agree re voting as tool for information NAI None One 55 Ashbringer Points out that Matrim has three votes on them N/A N/A Themself included as a poke vote. Why leaving vote on given build up of votes? Unsure. Not sure Matrim feels under pressure, why leave vote on? None One 56 Araris Says they can also shuffle with Kas. Asks Ashbringer who the third vote is N/A N/A Keep the flirting out of thread, gentlemen. NAI None One 57 Ashbringer Says they were first vote on Matrim N/A N/A Continued absence of justification for prolonged poke vote Very mild evil None One 58 Stick Says they were ninja'd by Araris, and missed Ashbringer's vote N/A N/A Fair enough NAI None One 59 Araris Suggests thread should put more votes on other players N/A N/A None NAI None One 60 Experience Votes on Araris Araris N/A Feels like vote purely responsive NAI None One 61 Matrim's Dice Says they've been the leading train two hours into in D1 six times, has been lynched D1 once N/A N/A Feels unconcerned by pressure, think NAI - vote lead two hours into D1 unlikely to hold as they point out NAI None One 62 Araris Insists on being voted on, isn't often voted out D1, is in LG N/A N/A Nonchalance about being voted out Probably NAI None One 63 Stick Wary of Experience and Thaidakar, attributes it to gut N/A N/A Agree re both Mild village Wary of Thaidakar and Experience One 64 Experience Offers Stick a cookie to assuage their gut N/A N/A Not worried about it Very mild village None One 65 Thaidakar the Ghostblood Is also beginning to think Experience is suspicious N/A N/A Agree, want to see reasoning. Reactive to Stick's suspicion? Mild evil Suspicious of Experience One 66 Ashbringer Asks whether people mind mind games. N/A N/A Point of asking? Unsure None One 67 Experience RP N/A N/A NAI NAI None One 68 Matrim's Dice Gut village of Stick, Ashbringer, TJ. Null on Thaidakar and Araris, thinks Kas and Experience feel normal, but that that's not necessarily village, might be in Kas' case N/A N/A Would question gut takes, now seen Matrim's alignment. Known non-village See post One 69 Experience Notes Matrim included GM in village reads N/A N/A NAI NAI None One 70 Araris Matrim putting GM in village reads makes them want to leave their vote on them N/A N/A Not sure I see it as anything more than a joke Very mild evil None One 71 Ashbringer Says hello to Striker N/A N/A Presume Striker was viewing the thread NAI None One 72 Striker RP. Votes on Matrim's Dice as one of the times they vote on them early in D1 exe has to be right. Has bad gut read on them. Says will disappear for a while after post. Asks for vote count Matrim's Dice N/A Obviously (and probably deliberately) poor logic for vote on Matrim's Dice. Why ask for vote count if disappearing? Gut mild evil Votes on Matrim's Dice One 73 Tani "VC: Numbers" N/A N/A Joke NAI None One 74 TUA RP. Says they should add game comments, but don't have any. Might just RP and chill N/A N/A If not going to make comments, not contributing as village, impossible to solve. Should policy lynch at appropriate point Functionally not village None One 75 Matrim's Dice Says they're aware that TJ is the GM, and putting them as village was taking an active stance against people voting for him. Points out that Striker's logic on voting for him based on past games is flawed. Says amazing that can get village read in one game and elim read in another without changing playstyle. Says Striker objectively wrong to claim they're not talking to anyone N/A N/A Unlikely that eliminators woudl actively seek to change their playstyle. Feels slightly performative, moot point, known non village. Think Striker's point was RP only? Known non-village None One 76 Illwei Thinks Experience and Araris village. Thinks Thaidakar not e/e with Matrim, Dannnex, or Stick, Experience not e/e with Araris or Archer, Ashbringer not e/e with Striker. Leaning village on Ashbringer for poking Striker when Striker was viewing the thread, thinks NAI in reality. Suspicious of Kasimir for attempt to appear normal N/A N/A Would like to see justifications for team exclusions. Need to check notes, agree with at least some, but would be helpful to have called out what they're reliant on. Like being clear with reads. Mild village See post One 77 Archer Says they are an epic, wants to figure out if everyone is an Epic. Claims their role is that they can ask dead people questions if their alignment hasn't been confirmed. Asks if anyone is not an epic N/A N/A Bold to assume everyone an Epic from their own role. Unsure where additional information from. If role true, feels more likely village aligned than elim aligned. Odd role to make up, easily verifiable. Don't think an eliminator would know immediately that village aligned epics exist pre-D1 lynch. Moderately hard clear village? Sceptical of Devotary One 78 Illwei Tells people not to answer Archer asking if anyone isn't an Epic N/A N/A Agree generally with wisdom of not roleclaiming, dislike Illwei asserting it as wisdom - both useful to see who makes claims, and potentially claiming cred for saying village-like things Mild evil None One 79 TUA Claims to be a regular N/A N/A Don't think AI. Could be villager seeking to make themselves less of a target (not sure villagers actually should do so), or elim seeking to avoid havign to explain actions down the road NAI None One 80 Archer Votes on Illwei, as thinks they have said previously that secrecy of blackout distributions favours eliminators. Illwei Kasimir Actions consistent with stated beliefs. Feels genuine. Moderate village Votes on Illwei One 81 STINK Asks whether it's worth them reading the last four pages N/A N/A Always, but not inconsistent with historic playstyle NAI None One 82 Matrim's Dice Doesn't know how Archer could confirm no vanilla roles without access to the player list. N/A N/A Known non-village Known non-village None One 83 Striker Responds to Matrim, says not talking to anyone was RP reason for vote. Retracts from Matrim, votes on Stink STINK Matrim's Dice Why retract vote? One substantive Matrim post in interim - what in it made them retract? Stink being consistent - easy vote? Mild evil Votes on Stink One 84 Matrim's Dice Acknowledges Striker's RP N/A N/A None NAI None One 85 STINK Quotes Striker's vote, "Truly great to be back" N/A N/A None NAI None One 86 Devotary Replies to Archer, says it is their RP character who isn't an Epic. Says bold move for Archer to claim Epic in game where elim team are corrupted Epics N/A N/A Actively isn't claiming vanilla. Not sure Epic claim if elims listed as corrupted Epics is so bold - question what Devotary meant by this. Gut moderate evil Sus of Archer? One 87 Experience Elims being "corrupted" epics leads them to think there are some villager epics N/A N/A Very fair assumption. Reassess alignment indicativeness of Archer claim. Read rules in greater depth myself next game. NAI None One 88 Matrim's Dice Elims being corrupted epics not just epics, villagers being Reckoner Allies not Reckoners implies village epics, ninja'd by Experience N/A N/A Very fair assumption. Reassess alignment indicativeness of Archer claim. Read rules in greater depth myself next game. Known non-village None One 89 Striker Trivial reply to STINK N/A N/A None NAI None One 90 TUA Is claiming regular N/A N/A None new NAI None One 91 Devotary Expects a higher percentage of epics than regulars to be eliminators. Non-epics on corrupted epics team would be funny N/A N/A Possibly, but more villagers than elims, so epic not necessarily more likely to be elim than village. Don't think it justifies assessment of Archer's claim as bold Mild evil None One 92 Stick Expresses incredulity at Archer's claim, suggests they might be setting themself up for the night kill. Says we shouldn't be mass claiming N/A N/A Gut read as performative Mild evil None One 93 Ashbringer Says we need Elims to claim Reckoners, or what Devotary said N/A N/A Not quite sure I follow Unsure None One 94 Archer Isn't sure whether Devotary elim or vanilla villager. Thinks some level of claiming necessary in blackout gain to understand the game. Had initially assumed everyone was an Epic, thinks TUA's defence of Devotary so indirect it felt genuine. N/A N/A Agree re interrogation of Devotary. Why assume everyone an Epic based on their own role - feels odd. But again, odder to assume as an eliminator. Mild village Suspicious of Devotary One 95 Illwei Blackout of all information favours eliminators, but this does not mean total openness favours village. Village claims narrow NK possibilities for eliminators. Will treat further elim claims as elim. N/A N/A Very odd to say vanilla claims will be read as evil. Feels llike threat to make people not claim, as not reliable alignment-discerning tool, which Illwei must know. Plausible to want to dissuade village claims regardless of alignment Mild evil from coercion None One 96 TJ Vote count GM GM GM GM GM One 97 Ashbringer Says we should be cautious nitpicking GM PMs, and thinks doing so might be against the rules N/A N/A Not sure spirit of the rules precludes questioning GM in blackout game, if so, poorly written rule. NAI None One 98 TUA Says they may have stepped over the line of not nitpicking GM PMs N/A N/A Not sure they did NAI None One 99 STINK Thought game would have PMs N/A N/A Indirectly implying no doc to chat in? Plausibly performative Unsure None One 100 Matrim's Dice Asks whether there are neutral roles, as factions section of rules is definitive. Doesn't see a reason not to vote for Dannnex, votes for them Dannnex Thaidakar Why would GM give clarity in blackout game. Known non-village, suggests thought of themselves as neutral Known non-village None One 101 Thaidakar the Ghostblood Asks how much RP this game involves, and whether they should RP N/A N/A Can read thread and see not everyone RPing - performative? Unsure Unsure None One 102 Matrim's Dice Tells Thaidakar that RP is optional, encourages them to introduce their character N/A N/A NAI Known non-village None 1. I am offend. That was a very good joke. 2. 3 & 4. Umm am I missing something? Do we know that mat isn't village? Anyone please answer this because I did not notice this if it was confirmed. 22 hours ago, Araris Valerian said: Also, @Experience, if you are village (or even if you're elim, I suppose), you should probably put some thought in about the other players. Nothing wrong with voting/ISOing me, but you left your vote on me most of last cycle as well, so be wary of tunnel vision. Yeah, ik i might be tunelling...and I don't really have a good reason to vote on you other than off whats and ifs that we don't know yet. But my gut is not feeling right about you. And I've learned to never ignore my gut when it comes to you, because my actual reads of you are terrible 99% of the time. So I'll make you a deal. I'll keep my vote on you for now, and then go through other player's stuff to see if I have any bad feelings about other players I'll vote on them. 20 hours ago, Dannnex said: man i wish i was elim this game i'm like absolutely and completely flying under the radar rn and it's completely by accident how is nobody finding me sus for...anything yet Umm. You've kind of only posted like four or five times. Not sure why you are suprised...and not suprising your flying under the radar... 17 hours ago, Amanuensis said: For another, Experience actively resisted the Karn exe, which could mean they're E/E. *shrug* I wasn't defending karn, but there isn't really a way to prove that because it does look like that while I was just pushing for a more informative lynch. Which backfired lol. 6 hours ago, Archer said: Skmurph ate squids too. He made it fun, turning it into a game. He hoped that one day, Netflix would shoot a show about the experience. 6 hours ago, Araris Valerian said: Yes. Only villagers ever vote for elims. 100% truth in this statement. Retracting from Karn, since I think he's kinda in the same mindset I was in the AG; village Rioter that is sort of confused trying to clear things up by claiming, especially in a situation where it doesn't make tons of sense for an elim!Rioter to claim. It's still weird to use your role for maximum vote swingyness I know there's lots of speculation about this being a conversion game, but I'm pretty sure that there was at least a single elim D1, since otherwise the village win condition would have been met and the game immediately ended. If this is a conversion game, then we can probably assume that the single(?) elim would have tried lying low last cycle. That doesn't mean that they wouldn't participate at all, since inactivity is a red flag of it's own. Of course, if STINK/Szeth/Dannex is the elim, I wouldn't expect them to vote (which I disapprove of, by the way). But for the sake of narrowing the pool, lets say we are in a conversion game with a single elim that voted last cycle, but didn't try and stir things up too much. That player probably would look for a conversion target in this pool as well. I'm going to exclude Kas and Aman for now, more comfortable with Aman, but I feel like they made more waves than elim!them would have. Similarly, I don't think elim!Tani would have followed onto Karn last-minute. Karn is out like I said above. My gut says that solo elim!Orlok would have tried to vote last cycle, but I'm not sure if that's actually accurate. Of the voters on Stick, that leaves Striker, Devotary, and Illwei. Solo elim!Illwei I could easily see doing the kinds of posts she had last cycle. Striker gave IRL reasons for his participation levels, though that doesn't entirely excuse him. Devotary was playing what I come to expect, but like I said before, I'm not a fan of the vote on Stick. This is my greatest current suspicion from the Stick voters. I've already passed up all the voters on Karn, which I think is reasonable for now. Of the voters on Mat, I'm not a fan of Exp for multiple reasons. I think his behavior fits nicely with a single elim, both this cycle and last. He's sort of tunneling on me while also making sure to be on one of the main trains come end of cycle. And I honestly need to go reread for the other ones: Ash, JNV, Thaidakar, and Archer. I'd hesitate to pose JNV or Thaidakar as elims in a conversion game because they are relatively new and TJ probably wanted someone that he could rely on to kick things off based on past activity. This isn't a great line of reasoning, since I think we've had new players be the starting elim in conversion games before, but I'm trying to cross people off my list and it seems good enough for now. So I'm left with Devotary, Illwei, Exp, Ash, and Archer. Need to take a closer look at the last two, but my vote's going on Experience for now. Devotary is my second choice. I'll also say that even if there are more than one starting elim this game, I'd say it reasonable to guess that one of them would have the activity profile I've suggested, and that my elimination here is thus not entirely useless. Oh yeah, @Kasimir, somewhere you had Devotary as a "do not vote" player, can you explain that? Nothing really to add here. Other than claiming not elim, but that doesn't really mean anything. 1 hour ago, Kasimir said: [Edited to add: Illwei would work too.] Disagree with Araris about Experience, though I worry I'm overanchoring on Experience's stated willingness to die for Mat, so I guess I need to relook Experience. Gotta admit, I'm kinda suprised that you got such hard village vibes from me for that. That's all for now, sunday's are def less time shardwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir he/him Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Ashbringer said: Pretty sure his role was technically "Scientist of the Knighthawk", so that's probably fine to say. Mat didn't. Fair point on the rules thing though. (Cobb / whatever his full name is is your role name, right? Idk if that's important.) I don't want to get too into the weeds, but here's the thing. Look at the TUA / Aman case, where they 'confirmed' each other via the Vanilla/Regular distinction and context. For a role that you can reasonably expect to be repeated (even if it isn't actually repeated in the distro), e.g. Scientist, Demolitionist (AFAIK not in this game, just the first example that came to mind), allowing the player to give the actual role name or further GM flavour text pretty much confirms to any Demolitionist out there that you are in fact that role, especially since this is a blackout game. This is less exacerbated for Epics due to (as you've seen in Karn's case and mine) proper names being uniquely identifying - and the fact that Karn or myself could be lying since you really just have to take our word for it. IMO, Scientist of the Knighthawk falls towards the 'could reasonably expect duplication' side - I don't think every player would necessarily place emphasis on the GM flavour text saying the scientist - I certainly wouldn't as I know not all GMs pay the same amount of close attention to flavour text when writing it up. Wyrm is very precise in his writing but not everyone is Wyrm. 1 hour ago, Ashbringer said: Anyway, that's canon accurate but also limiting on what's actually going on. Making E!Epics out of V!Epics would assumedly be using powers too much causing corruption, which I've ruled out because of how widespread panic that would cause. Or it's a normal Sja-esque (or normal, Sja technically wasn't normal) conversion game, with an Epic that can just do that. Yes, and I don't want to really subordinate game mechanics too much to flavour since it's clear that I don't have a weakness and no claimed Epic has contradicted me so far, and when I asked TJ on it, he swore at me and told me I didn't have one, then finally asked me if it was that important to me that I have one (I said no FYI ) so I feel like it's clear there are limits to how much this game is pulling on flavour. I'd rather look at what mechanically makes sense from a balance perspective than expect maximal faithfulness. 1 hour ago, Ashbringer said: I guess of that pool, TUA is the most interesting because of a Vanilla claim. Means they'd be both a decent first convert and a decent Converter... but I know I tend to tunnel on TUA so I'll discount that. Plus, again, too obvious. Orlok was definitely reading the thread a few times C1, just never posted until 5 hours before rollover. Also my Archer paranoia is acting up again. aaaah I'm leaving out first convert guesses because I think that's too meta dependent. I think we have a slightly higher chance of catching Sja compared to the first convert because first convert would by definition be Village C1 and therefore we can't look for a first convert by looking for Elim behaviour C1 - for that, we'd have to do a C1/C2 comparison analysis. In [Convert World], TUA is absolutely of interest to me because of the vanilla claim. I went into LG6 knowing I scanned as a regular so I immediately claimed regular, and Gamma was willing to tell me the contents of the regular GM PM. FWIW, while setting up the fake Seeker scan, I actually asked El and Fifth for input on what a Seeker would scan for a Regular Spiked, so as much as the players were disagreeing and saying it had to be vanilla, they confirmed they had no real nomenclature and that Regular Spiked would do. It's not unusual for players to ask for GM PM contents. Now, I say this only to undercut it because I think the casualness/speed of the exchange means that TUA didn't ask and it's a weird sort of thing to ask about and try to set up. So the only way in [Convert World] TUA is Sja is if we assume the Sja role PM says something specifically about regulars, and something about Epics. Same deal for Archer in [Convert World] - TJ was aggressively PAFOing all questions about write-up informativeness with regard to alignment, and ex hypothesi, Sja starts as a lone Elim. The fact Archer essentially predicted that there would be no alignment flip should more or less clear him of being Sja in [Convert World.] In [Regular SE World], I take Aman's point about the phrasing probably being different, and I do think it means currently a lower credence on E!TUA, but Beagle happens, so I'd just say that on my part, I'm prepared to re-evaluate later on if the situation demands it. In [Regular SE World], the main issue isn't with regard to role but that Archer unhesitatingly and fairly early on simply called that Village Epics exist. I do agree with Aman's logic that's one hell of a risk unless the Elim team has some role that interacts with Village Epics, so there's some way to predict that there are Village Epics, but without full sight of the distro, I think I'm happy to put Archer in my upper (but not highest) Village tier for now, subject to revision where necessary, because Beagle happens 1 hour ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said: There were a bunch of votes on Stick, and I wanted to see if there was anything she'd said that was provoking those votes. I kept my vote on Stick because the thread response to her being in the lead was to add more votes to Mat, and the counter to that push was on an entirely different person. I am defending Mat because when two people are in danger and significantly more effort is put into protecting one of them, that one is more likely to be elim. The more I look at this, the more the context is what confuses me. Because I agree, and I think there was commentary late cycle, about what was provoking the votes on Stick. But why would voting Stick help make sense of what was provoking the already-existing votes on Stick? Because the opposite construal is the train on Mat was refusing to die, and then you tied things off, and to Mat voters, that also looks like a vacuous train coming forward again (and surely you agree it at least seemed vacuous then, since even Stick voter Illwei flagged it, and you yourself wanted to see why the votes were happening), so from their point/our point of view, there's effort to save Mat by advancing a train that...no one knows why Striker and Tani got onto. So I guess just to get things straight, and if I missed something you said earlier, my apologies as I'm functioning at 30% this game/cycle and I'd just like everything in one place: Do you currently think Mat/Stick was V/V? Let's bracket Karn for now. What do you think of the Karn voters? Do you specifically think I'm E/E with: Archer, Aman, or Araris? (Wow so many As and just one K. LG83 foreshadowing much?) Do you still think Stick said anything to provoke the votes she accumulated? What do you think of the motivations/grounding behind the votes on Stick? @Araris Valerian - I know you keep saying to think about whether something makes sense from an Elim perspective. Do you currently think Mat/Stick was V/V? Let's bracket Karn for now. What specifically do you dislike about Experience? I've glanced at your posts but I'd appreciate a tldr; for my tired brain. The real question that prompted this: if you're at least lightly committed to E!Devo, how would you say that E!Devo's behaviour makes sense for E!Devo in terms of the D1 Stick vote? I'm getting flashbacks to wrangling Araris in the game that cannot be mentioned and I'm grumpy about it, while I'm also aware the flashbacks are probably because I'm tired, stressed, and unable to think well >> Edited to add: 6 minutes ago, Experience said: Spoiler Gotta admit, I'm kinda suprised that you got such hard village vibes from me for that. I myself am surprised. But it's just one of those irrational things that sticks so hard with me because I'm 100% aware I have a tendency to do that as a Villager. I don't do it all the time and I haven't in recent memory though at one point when Mat sold me on him being V (during my swinging to and fro on 'is Mat Evil', you'll note in C1 I directly asked him if he would be cool with trading for a train on me.) It's probably a partial mindmeld thing where I know I do it as Village and therefore just can't really see it as coming from an Evil perspective. As I said, I should probably rethink you at any rate, because anchoring on just one piece of evidence is bad and I'm not sure it's that strong. Edited to add 2: 6 minutes ago, Experience said: 3 & 4. Umm am I missing something? Do we know that mat isn't village? Anyone please answer this because I did not notice this if it was confirmed. No, Orlok is suffering from the thread length and missed that we don't get an alignment flip. He thought black text meant Mat was of non-Village alignment. Edited February 14, 2022 by Kasimir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashbringer he/him Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 ... don't think I'm going to quote all of that, because I think I agree with most of it. I haven't done a full blackout in a while (since LG68, I think - and that one definitely had some issues with knowing named roles, although the 8 village scans also had something to do with that), so I'm fuzzy on the exact rules around role-naming, but I could see Mat not claiming that part for a reason or I could see him not claiming because. TUA in non-convert-world should be fine, I haven't pinged anything specific. Archer is more... if he's the only interaction with the delayed-cycle-alignment flip we all assume exists, then he's either much more important than he seems or he's hiding something. Could be Reviver, could be something else. I might hunt for a Sja. Easier than trying to track down a convert... or a Malibu. Although some individuals have been quiet today. Archer's claim is... risky, but Archer. He claimed the confirmed villager two games (LG73 Non-Rithmatist and LG76 Professor Anders) very quickly. And I feel like there's some tricksyness there. It might be less accurate for Archer to assume there's Village Epics than, say, a Rioter clone: but, if that is assumed, it would be strange if a large amount of Village Epics decide to vote out a claimed Village Epic because they're a Village Epic. Of course, E!Archer might think of that. Especially if the Elims can convert Village Epics... and I'm going in circles again. 27 minutes ago, Kasimir said: Do you specifically think I'm E/E with: Archer, Aman, or Araris? (Wow so many As and just one K. LG83 foreshadowing much?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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