Mid-Range Game 56: Day of Reckoning

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Archer's claim is... risky, but Archer. He claimed the confirmed villager two games (LG73 Non-Rithmatist and LG76 Professor Anders) very quickly. And I feel like there's some tricksyness there. It might be less accurate for Archer to assume there's Village Epics than, say, a Rioter clone: but, if that is assumed, it would be strange if a large amount of Village Epics decide to vote out a claimed Village Epic because they're a Village Epic.

Of course, E!Archer might think of that. Especially if the Elims can convert Village Epics... and I'm going in circles again.

That's why I said revise if necessary. Even a deepwolf has to bite eventually. Elan had to choose between making strategically bad choices for her team, bad votes/framings, or... you know  My current view is that it's not impossible which is why I don't want to dismiss it out of hand, but it's C2, and no one has much of a voting track record yet. We'll see as things go along, IMO. Archer is too active a player not to be catchable when flips happen (sorry Archer, but you said the same of me and I agree  )

I fully agree with paranoia as the Last Son of House Urbain, just feel that unless we have compelling reason, operative trust isn't bad either since we will get more evidence as cycles go on. (And of course, though I say this, we don't see the world in which Beagle completely scammed me and Tyrian was cursed and I run into this game screaming about how you should never trust Ever because Trusting Gets You Shot In The Face (And You're To Blame.))

Note that the confirmed villager cases are exactly that - so less of concern. I think the part about the risk I find compelling from Aman's logic is that if he's wrong about the existence of Village Epics and MLs a bunch of Regulars, he immediately gets voted out. Agreed about risk appetite though so I think we are broadly in agreement that absolute trust/roleclearing should not happen  I should note I have applied this reasoning to Araris before, and I've not yet been bitten by it, so I fully expect to get stabbed in the back at some point because Araris and Archer are tricky that way  

4 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

33 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

• Do you specifically think I'm E/E with: Archer, Aman, or Araris? (Wow so many As and just one K. LG83 foreshadowing much?)

 

I asked this for a specific reason and that's that I feel there's a certain implication there if you have certain views about the votes from C1  

9 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Archer is more... if he's the only interaction with the delayed-cycle-alignment flip we all assume exists, then he's either much more important than he seems or he's hiding something. Could be Reviver, could be something else. I might hunt for a Sja. Easier than trying to track down a convert... or a Malibu. Although some individuals have been quiet today.

Agreed. Do think some parts of it will be wait and see.

Think it's important to interact with both worlds when trying to work out the exe, yeah. We don't have one reason to favour one over the other yet so acting as though one is true and the other not gets us in for (potentially) a world of hurt.

[---]

44 minutes ago, Experience said:

I believe these are all the posts that have my name in them, sorry if I missed any. I've read the entire thread, but am just responding to these at the moment cause time. I'm going to highlight the parts of orlok's table that I respond to in pink so that it's easier to refind.

  Reveal hidden contents

1. I am offend. That was a very good joke.  

2.

3 & 4. Umm am I missing something? Do we know that mat isn't village? Anyone please answer this because I did not notice this if it was confirmed.

Yeah, ik i might be tunelling...and I don't really have a good reason to vote on you other than off whats and ifs that we don't know yet. But my gut is not feeling right about you. And I've learned to never ignore my gut when it comes to you, because my actual reads of you are terrible 99% of the time. So I'll make you a deal. I'll keep my vote on you for now, and then go through other player's stuff to see if I have any bad feelings about other players I'll vote on them.

Umm. You've kind of only posted like four or five times. Not sure why you are suprised...and not suprising your flying under the radar...

*shrug* I wasn't defending karn, but there isn't really a way to prove that because it does look like that while I was just pushing for a more informative lynch. Which backfired lol. 

Nothing really to add here. Other than claiming not elim, but that doesn't really mean anything.

Gotta admit, I'm kinda suprised that you got such hard village vibes from me for that.

That's all for now, sunday's are def less time shardwise. 

I am hard shielding experience he does not die he is not evil

[Ashbringer he/him]

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I asked this for a specific reason and that's that I feel there's a certain implication there if you have certain views about the votes from C1  

Yeah. I don't want to be left out of the A-Train 

 

Waiting and seeing is probably my plan for now. I think I've managed to weasel out of playing more than a few games with E!Archer, though... except MR52, where I was too focused on taking down the other two Elims. I've got some more work to do, but I've got some time left to scour C1. I hope.

[Szeth_Pancakes he/him]

3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Devo's and Araris's exchange on Stick is making me relook at my pool of candidates. My vote is chilling on Karn but I'll go ahead and pressure Szeth - @Szeth_Pancakes. Thoughts on Mat or the lack of a NK? The tldr; you requested for is there's no NK, the write-up shows you the vote trains, and there wa

Umm

gimme a sec

[Experience he/him]

Wait so is mat confirmed non-evil, or was Araris just incorrect about that?

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

46 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

The more I look at this, the more the context is what confuses me. Because I agree, and I think there was commentary late cycle, about what was provoking the votes on Stick. But why would voting Stick help make sense of what was provoking the already-existing votes on Stick? Because the opposite construal is the train on Mat was refusing to die, and then you tied things off, and to Mat voters, that also looks like a vacuous train coming forward again (and surely you agree it at least seemed vacuous then, since even Stick voter Illwei flagged it, and you yourself wanted to see why the votes were happening), so from their point/our point of view, there's effort to save Mat by advancing a train that...no one knows why Striker and Tani got onto. 

So I guess just to get things straight, and if I missed something you said earlier, my apologies as I'm functioning at 30% this game/cycle and I'd just like everything in one place:

• Do you currently think Mat/Stick was V/V? Let's bracket Karn for now.
• What do you think of the Karn voters?
• Do you specifically think I'm E/E with: Archer, Aman, or Araris? (Wow so many As and just one K. LG83 foreshadowing much?)
• Do you still think Stick said anything to provoke the votes she accumulated?
• What do you think of the motivations/grounding behind the votes on Stick?

That's fair. I was thinking that with v/e Mat/Stick we would get extra votes on Mat to save Stick e/v my vote makes it easier for elims to take advantage of an opportunity to save Mat, v/v would be more scattershot, e/e someone might try an alternative. That does get confused with the votes on Stick not seeming to be based on anything.

I think there's a decent chance that it's not v/v with how much push there was to save honestly both of them but mostly Stick in terms of votes and then Mat just from Karnatheon's riot.

I think Karn voters should be mostly okay unless Mat/Stick are e/e. The Karn push I see mostly as an effort to avoid killing Mat, and it would be so much simpler to switch to Stick instead if it's e/v.

No.

I don't think most of those votes were about things Stick said. More in the 'note for later' category at least for me like thinking a belief that epics are elims is elim indicative, and a village read for Archer based on his role claim. I have no idea why Tani voted Stick. Striker's votes can't be counted as coming from a village mindset. Mat's vote happens 24 hours before rollover which is strange for what almost looks like a self-preservation vote.

 

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Experience said:

Wait so is mat confirmed non-evil, or was Araris just incorrect about that?

We don't know anything!

We likely have to wait one more cycle for a flip, Jon Snow!  

[Experience he/him]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

We don't know anything!

We likely have to wait one more cycle for a flip, Jon Snow!  

Okay, just needed to make sure xD

[Kasimir he/him]

5 minutes ago, Experience said:

Wait so is mat confirmed non-evil, or was Araris just incorrect about that?

Also I think you mean non-Village and Orlok, I don't see anywhere Araris said Mat was confirmed non-Evil, and if he did, appreciate if you flag it for me because this could be Interesting :eyes:

[JNV]

Hi! I skimmed through what I missed but I haven't looked too closely because I don't have that much time (test tomorrow) so I just wanted to stop by and say yes I am alive and also I have mildly negative vibes towards Devotary because the only point in their favor was the acknowledgement of Archer and that's viable as an elim because once there is a claim from a non-elim there is confirmation of non-elim Epics and also that Stick vote which still does not track for me even after their explanation. Bye for now! Probably last post of the night if I can't catch up and of the cycle because school so I hope I can help out more next cycle.

[Ashbringer he/him]

We don't even know if it's this next cycle - all we know is that we don't know what we're supposed to know!

Also that Mat's at the bottom of the ocean, and might be resuscitated by a polar bear. Don't really know that but it's fun to think about.

 

... what ocean is around Antarctica? Is it just Pacific/Atlantic/Indian based on where it happens to be?

[Experience he/him]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

Also I think you mean non-Village and Orlok, I don't see anywhere Araris said Mat was confirmed non-Evil, and if he did, appreciate if you flag it for me because this could be Interesting :eyes:

*facepalm* yes, it's orlok. And...also correct. Umm. Do we know he is confirmed non-village? Or is that just an opinion?

[Kasimir he/him]

5 minutes ago, JNV said:

Hi! I skimmed through what I missed but I haven't looked too closely because I don't have that much time (test tomorrow) so I just wanted to stop by and say yes I am alive and also I have mildly negative vibes towards Devotary because the only point in their favor was the acknowledgement of Archer and that's viable as an elim because once there is a claim from a non-elim there is confirmation of non-elim Epics and also that Stick vote which still does not track for me even after their explanation. Bye for now! Probably last post of the night if I can't catch up and of the cycle because school so I hope I can help out more next cycle.

Hi again JNV! Nice to hear from you! Given your thoughts, would you be willing to vote for Devotary?

5 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

We don't even know if it's this next cycle - all we know is that we don't know what we're supposed to know!

TJ @ us this whole game with his PAFO rampage:

Spoiler

5 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Also that Mat's at the bottom of the ocean, and might be resuscitated by a polar bear. Don't really know that but it's fun to think about.

ngl the idea of polar bear!Archer having to perform CPR for unresponsive Mat is a hilarious mental image, thank u

Edited to add:

2 minutes ago, Experience said:

*facepalm* yes, it's orlok. And...also correct. Umm. Do we know he is confirmed non-village? Or is that just an opinion?

I see you have Araris on the brain a lot

Yeah, Orlok was mistaken. Orlok and I had an exchange around p. 3 or so - shortly after his table - where I flagged to him that black text in the writeup (role flip bit) didn't mean Mat wasn't Village, just meant we weren't getting an alignment flip yet, and he acknowledged he'd just assumed.

AFAIK/Given our current info, assumption is still that this coming rollover will give us Mat's alignment flip. Until then, we still have an exe to wrangle  

Edited February 14, 2022 by Kasimir

[JNV]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

Hi again JNV! Nice to hear from you! Given your thoughts, would you be willing to vote for Devotary?

Um... probably? You know what? I'll put a vote down on them and revisit it if I find anything else in the proper readthrough. Devotary. Hopefully I manage to get a post up before cycle end but if not, I'll see you on the other side!

[Szeth_Pancakes he/him]

I probably shouldn’t have signed up for a Reckoners game when I haven’t read the Reckoners series.

I think Mat’s village, especially if there aren’t any village epics. It depends on what the Motivator does, of course — if it’s a powerup for Epics then it would be more uselful to an elim, or to a villager who has lots of village Epics to give it to. Again, I haven’t read the Reckoners; I don’t know what the Motivator did in the books.

tl;dr: If the Motivator is an Epic booster, Mat’s more likely to be elim/neutral, especially if there aren’t village epics. If the Motivator is independent of that, it’s more likely Mat’s village. Because usefulness.

[Kasimir he/him]

26 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I am hard shielding experience he does not die he is not evil

:eyes:

:EYES:

but also y tho

Spoiler

still have to commit to my experience re-eval but i would like 2 know ur thoughts

Edited to add:

2 minutes ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

I probably shouldn’t have signed up for a Reckoners game when I haven’t read the Reckoners series.

I think Mat’s village, especially if there aren’t any village epics. It depends on what the Motivator does, of course — if it’s a powerup for Epics then it would be more uselful to an elim, or to a villager who has lots of village Epics to give it to. Again, I haven’t read the Reckoners; I don’t know what the Motivator did in the books.

tl;dr: If the Motivator is an Epic booster, Mat’s more likely to be elim/neutral, especially if there aren’t village epics. If the Motivator is independent of that, it’s more likely Mat’s village. Because usefulness.

Would it change your thoughts if I told you:

• I'm claiming to be a Village Epic
• Mat claimed that Motivators are one-shot use items that allow someone else to use a dead Epic's powers once?

(I'm aware it's a long struggle given the thread slog; thank you for staying with us!)

Edited February 14, 2022 by Kasimir

[Experience he/him]

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

:eyes:

:EYES:

but also y tho

  Reveal hidden contents

still have to commit to my experience re-eval but i would like 2 know ur thoughts

I think you mean:

Spoiler

 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

27 minutes ago, JNV said:

and also that Stick vote which still does not track for me even after their explanation.

What about this doesn't make sense to you?

The people discrediting the _Stick_  vote can't all be evil, but it's so weird, especially when we don't have a Matrim flip yet.

Devotary (3): Aman (I think), Archer, JNV
Striker (2): STINK, Thaidakar
Araris (1): Experience
Dannex (1): _Stick_
Experience (1): Araris
Karnatheon (1): Striker
Szeth (1): Kasimir
_Stick_ (1): Devotary

[Kasimir he/him]

@|TJ| - Can we get an official VC? Recognise the ambiguity attached to Aman's vote.

 

[Amanuensis he/him]

I'll save TJ the trouble

Devotary.

TBH this vote is basically just PoE for me. There isn't anything inherently elim about Devo that I've seen, but also nothing inherently village. I'd be open to another exe if the argument is good enough. I don't see myself voting for Stick unless it's a particularly compelling argument, so I'd maybe recommend another candidate, Devo.

ED1T:

Oh and if someone did get converted, my money is on STINK. Btw did anyone ask if conversions would be announced? I don't remember if so.

Edited February 14, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

7 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

TBH this vote is basically just PoE for me. There isn't anything inherently elim about Devo that I've seen, but also nothing inherently village. I'd be open to another exe if the argument is good enough. I don't see myself voting for Stick unless it's q particularly compelling argument, so I'd maybe recommend another candidate, Devo.

You have no other elim suspicions? Is your hesitance to vote Stick because you want to see Mat's flip or do you have a reason to read her as village? I'm not feeling good about Araris but that's mostly related to suspicions of Stick (village gut read, leaves Stick out of his PoE) so I'm not going to vote for him right now.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

• Do you currently think Mat/Stick was V/V? Let's bracket Karn for now.
• What specifically do you dislike about Experience? I've glanced at your posts but I'd appreciate a tldr; for my tired brain.
• The real question that prompted this: if you're at least lightly committed to E!Devo, how would you say that E!Devo's behaviour makes sense for E!Devo in terms of the D1 Stick vote?

• Yeah, that's what I'm running with, though getting a flip from Stick wouldn't be the worst thing. And if we are in the conversion mindset, I don't think Stick fought very hard to live for a solo elim.
• So Experience has been tunneling on me, and strongly didn't want to vote Mat. Not wanting to vote someone that will flip village is elimmy. I know Exp said at some point that he would rather die than vote Mat, which is why you are cool with him. But (and I'm not sure how much credit to be giving Exp here) that's the sort of thing you could say mid-D1 before trains have solidified to gain trust. Also, I feel like putting suspicion on me and then not following up is a cheap way to look active while really just leaching off my rep to skate by easily. But... looking back, 
• Good question. But Devo's behavior D1 doesn't really stick out (which is a thing I've been flagging people for). I suppose if Stick flipped village and we never voted out Mat, then Devo's vote/timing might draw suspicion, but that's about it. The discussion about Archer's role and a potential lack of alignment flips on reread seemed a bit suspicious but could also be Devo just being perceptive.

I gotta get to bed but I'll try and reconsider my vote tomorrow. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

Just now, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

You have no other elim suspicions? Is your hesitance to vote Stick because you want to see Mat's flip or do you have a reason to read her as village? I'm not feeling good about Araris but that's mostly related to suspicions of Stick (village gut read, leaves Stick out of his PoE) so I'm not going to vote for him right now.

Don't really have any other leads or the desire to find one, my brain has kinda turned off since Mat's death (probably somewhat impacted by the lack of an alignment flip, but mostly because I didn't want to be writing walls and leading the village in the first place; I just had to with Mat because it was literally all I could think about).

I'm not exactly sold on Stick being a Villager. But I really did like their post where they said they had a role they looked forward to using, but if Mat lived then an item could be made out of it, so at least it could still be used. Since then they've been relatively open about clarifying it, and the nonchalance I felt during that exchange was pretty reassurring.

So like, yes, I think it's silly to kill the counter wagon when we don't even know the other's alignment, but there are few smol things that make me lean village.

That and like, I seriously haven't found a reason to village read a single person that voted Stick last turn, and I've found a reason to village lean nearly everyone on the Mat wagon, so...

Araris is kinda a nonstarter for me because I've never known how to read him and it seems a lot of the arguments against him are rep paranoia which by association annoys me and I'm wholly against.

I'm on mobile rn so cba to quote it over, but I posted a sort of readslist on page 18 or 17 of C1 in the form of a color coded vote count, which is still basically where I'm at until I know for sure Mat's V or E. I'd probably be okay with voting any black name but Araris/Orlok, but a lot of those players are also not super active so idk.

Fundamentally, I agree with something Kas pointed out during C1 I think where we do have a tendency to exe active players early for "max info" and how that inevitably punishes effort and rewards inactivity. So I *think* given the nature of these delayed alignment flips stifling discussion, it might not matter too much today?

So we exed a very active Mat C1 but don't get his alignment to act on until C3 right?

So then today we are all kinda lost and confused (more so because of the lack of elim kill) with no certain direction to go. So why not exe a lower active? Give the active people more room to work and breathe?

Then when we get the Mat alignment we can start delving into the nitty gritty of C1 and apply it to C2 reactions, and things can properly snowball from there.

[Kasimir he/him]

4 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

But... looking back, 

Think you missed something here, but also, get rest please  

4 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

So then today we are all kinda lost and confused (more so because of the lack of elim kill) with no certain direction to go. So why not exe a lower active? Give the active people more room to work and breathe?

Hesitant on a potential CC, but can see where that could be appealing. I think the bigger thing is I'd like to see robust discussion since we - admittedly took it easy for half the cycle, I suppose. With the usual caveat on how that is achieved.

6 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

That and like, I seriously haven't found a reason to village read a single person that voted Stick last turn, and I've found a reason to village lean nearly everyone on the Mat wagon, so...

Even Illwei?

[Amanuensis he/him]

Just now, Kasimir said:

Even Illwei?

Tbh forgot Illwei existed for a moment. She hasn't been very active today

She would be the one exception, but I feel kinda similar to her as I do Stick. A few things that make me lean village but nothing that outright confirms it for me.