Mid-Range Game 56: Day of Reckoning

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

10 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

how have you read/found E!Araris in the past? You mention that you're not feeling good about Araris via connections to Stick, but taking a step back, how have you done so successfully? (Don't think I've had to be on opposite teams dealing with E!Araris as often and presumably you've encountered him more in your playhistory.)

I can't remember the last time I found e!Araris. I think it's because I think of elims as trying to keep each other alive and that's not necessary how Araris plays. My current suspicion of Araris is based on him potentially trying to keep e!Stick alive, but e!Araris frequently doesn't remove teammates from his suspicions like that.

[Kasimir he/him]

16 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I can't remember the last time I found e!Araris. I think it's because I think of elims as trying to keep each other alive and that's not necessary how Araris plays. My current suspicion of Araris is based on him potentially trying to keep e!Stick alive, but e!Araris frequently doesn't remove teammates from his suspicions like that.

Ouch

What would be the state of your suspicions if - suppose - Stick really does flip Village? (Opposite of the question you asked Aman, I suppose.)

Edited to add: Devo, here's a question. Who would you be willing to join a train on, if not Stick today?

Edited February 14, 2022 by Kasimir

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

6 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Ouch

What would be the state of your suspicions if - suppose - Stick really does flip Village? (Opposite of the question you asked Aman, I suppose.)

You just need to have an elim alive to win, but I always lose solo unlike some people so I have to try and keep my teammates alive.

If Stick flips village ideally it's because Mat was evil. If they're both village, I would take another look at whatever was going on with the Karnatheon train. More in Karn lean elim and the people who voted there lean village. Also at the people who didn't vote, which are TUA, STINK, Szeth, MintSilverTea, Orlok, Dannnex. Most of those were largely inactive though, and I note mostly that TUA claims regular which is village, STINK said he was 50/50 Mat and Karn and then didn't vote, which would be suspicious regardless of in v/v or v/e!Stick weighed against STINK apparently rarely voting D1, Orlok could not catch up to 17 pages of content with every-post analysis which makes sense for anyone because that's way too many posts, Dannnex wishes he was elim which is strange.

[Stick. she/her]

Devotary:

1. RP with a pokevote on Ash, unremarkable except for “Either he was an Epic and should be taken out on principal” 

2. Confirms that Epics are evil

3. Reiterates the same, though adds that they wouldn’t “claim to be when she's part of an organization whose whole purpose is killing Epics” - which honestly feels like an elim mindset. The problems with claiming aside, why would a villager be afraid to claim epic when they KNOW their alignment, which automatically discards the idea that all epics are elims? Also ponders possible elim team distros - making a note to look back on these if e!Devo. 

4. Expects the elim team to have more roles than regulars - notably assumes Epic = role

5. More epics talk, says:

Quote

“elim Regular/village Regular ratio of 0”

which is an assumption in and of itself that, again, I find to be odd because it really does seem like a result of elim TMI. 

6. Says that being able to talk to the dead can be useful for both elims and village, and comments on how v!Mat reacted to getting exe’d D1:

Quote

“He was also willing to die to ensure that somebody got exed.”

Which implies that Mat’s adamant efforts to stay in the game last turn should theoretically point to e!Mat since it doesn’t line up with v!Mat if youre gonna use that meta logic, right? Except devo never voted for Mat regardless. Which is just odd behaviour, regardless of Mat’s alignment.

7. Starts the post off with

Quote

“What has Stick said?”

And ends it with putting my exe in the lead, which is a progression that, honestly, idk. But what stands out more is:

Quote

“I kind of want Mat to claim but that probably not a good idea since it would make v!Mat a target but likely couldn't clear him and E!Mat could just make something up or even be truthful.”

This sentence is…slippery. If v!Mat, this feels like an elim trying to phish for info without really directly doing so - if the claim ‘likely couldnt clear him’ then why would you want him to anyway? If Devo/Mat e/e, then I can easily see this as being an attempt to convince the thread to not hinge their votes on Mat claiming (subtely discouraging the idea of Mat roleclaiming) because ideally they would not want to give their role away if they didnt absolutely have to - cuz with a role like Mat’s being public knowledge, I feel like e!Mat wouldn’t be able to freely use it to give items to teammates without potentially exposing them. Doing ISOs is hard when you dont have a flip lmao too many possibilities my head do be hurting

8. Comments on Mat’s role, says it would be thematically village/neutral if elims are all epics. If e!Mat, then I see this as e!Devo.

9. Responds to my post, saying that their vote is mainly on me because I wasn’t too bothered about the tie and says “

Quote

If you are an Epic on an all-Epic team, it would be easy for you to assume that of course all the elims would be Epics”

which very much reads to me as elim because Devo assumed exactly this. 

10. They belatedly acknowledge the above in this post and says that they arent sure if they want to vote on mat if his claim is true. Again, don’t see how that role means v!Mat. IMO it could be either.

11, 12. Back and forth with Kas re: How Archer’s role fits with Mat’s. NAI, I think.

13. Last post of C1, 6 minutes before rollover, says they’re gonna keep their vote on me, adds

Quote

“I don't think Mat's claimed role confirms him as village since role recovery is plenty helpful for the elims even if all Epics were elims which does not seem to be the case.”

Contradicting post 10, which clearly implied Devo’s stance on Mat’s roleclaim to be otherwise.

I wanted to get a response from Dannex but they seem to have ghosted us and that exe isnt looking to be going anywhere. So I'm comfortable with going ahead and adding my vote to Devo as well.

1 hour ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Being okay with someone she didn't think was village being able to make an item from a role that could have 'bad, destructive outcomes' is something

Well first, I said 'if v!Mat', and also, I thought I'd come back to the dead doc, not C2, in which case my role would already be announced in the writeup and the if Mat was evil, he could easily use it to further the elim wincon anyway. If I didn't die, the elims NKing me would not only be bad play on their part (as I would keep me around for an easy misexe), but would also confirm e!Mat because the only way the elims NKing me would make sense with Mat alive is if e!Mat wanted to make an item out of my role. If v!Mat, the elims would never NK me because that would mean they give v!Mat the opportunity to make an item out of my role. Plus as the odds were when I left the thread, it was either Mat or Me, and if e!Mat got exe'd then I have no reason to worry about him making an item out of my role.

Also thank to this post I am eleven mins late to class ciao

Edited February 14, 2022 by _Stick_
'doesnt isnt' I cannnot english

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

14 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

3. Reiterates the same, though adds that they wouldn’t “claim to be when she's part of an organization whose whole purpose is killing Epics” - which honestly feels like anelim mindset. The problems with claiming aside, why would a villager be afraid to claim epic when they KNOW their alignment, which automatically discards the idea that all epics are elims? Also ponders possible elim team distros - making a note to look back on these if e!Devo. 
 

Quote

“elim Regular/village Regular ratio of 0”

which is an assumption in and of itself that, again, I find to be odd because it really does seem like a result of elim TMI. 

6. Says that being able to talk to the dead can be useful for both elims and village, and comments on how v!Mat reacted to getting exe’d D1:

Quote

“He was also willing to die to ensure that somebody got exed.”

Which implies that Mat’s adamant efforts to stay in the game last turn should theoretically point to e!Mat since it doesn’t line up with v!Mat if youre gonna use that meta logic, right? Except devo never voted for Mat regardless. Which is just odd behaviour, regardless of Mat’s alignment.

Quote

“I kind of want Mat to claim but that probably not a good idea since it would make v!Mat a target but likely couldn't clear him and E!Mat could just make something up or even be truthful.”

This sentence is…slippery. If v!Mat, this feels like an elim trying to phish for info without really directly doing so - if the claim ‘likely couldnt clear him’ then why would you want him to anyway? If Devo/Mat e/e, then I can easily see this as being an attempt to convince the thread to not hinge their votes on Mat claiming (subtely discouraging the idea of Mat roleclaiming) because ideally they would not want to give their role away if they didnt absolutely have to - cuz with a role like Mat’s being public knowledge, I feel like e!Mat wouldn’t be able to freely use it to give items to teammates without potentially exposing them. Doing ISOs is hard when you dont have a flip lmao too many possibilities my head do be hurting

9. Responds to my post, saying that their vote is mainly on me because I wasn’t too bothered about the tie and says “

Quote

If you are an Epic on an all-Epic team, it would be easy for you to assume that of course all the elims would be Epics”

which very much reads to me as elim because Devo assumed exactly this. 

10. They belatedly acknowledge the above in this post and says that they arent sure if they want to vote on mat if his claim is true. Again, don’t see how that role means v!Mat. IMO it could be either.

13. Last post of C1, 6 minutes before rollover, says they’re gonna keep their vote on me, adds

Quote

“I don't think Mat's claimed role confirms him as village since role recovery is plenty helpful for the elims even if all Epics were elims which does not seem to be the case.”

Contradicting post 10, which clearly implied Devo’s stance on Mat’s roleclaim to be otherwise.

1 hour ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Being okay with someone she didn't think was village being able to make an item from a role that could have 'bad, destructive outcomes' is something

Well first, I said 'if v!Mat'

This refers to Sonia and the book Reckoners, which are indeed devoted to killing Epics and have very few of their own.

This is the same assumption that you had, i.e. that all elims would be Epics. I don't know if that's true then or now.

This is from a game where Mat refused to tie since ties don't kill anyone, which is not the case in this game. I should have put more context for people who weren't going to look at that game. Mat could of course still be evil but I'm leaning more village by this point.

I'm interested in what kind of role would be so village aligned. That doesn't mean I think he should claim.

You did, and I do note that. Aman was the one who was interpreting a more positive view of that. I still assume that it would have been bad if e!Mat got one use of v!you's role.

It is what I thought, yes. Not a great piece of evidence, true, since it's meaningless for a villager whether they think all the elims are Epics.

There's a big difference between hesitating to vote for someone on the basis of their potentially helpful role and confirming them as village.

I'll be around an hour before rollover just in time to probably die if anyone else wants to ask me anything. I'll keep the vote on Stick for now with Araris as second choice if that's more viable.

[Amanuensis he/him]

11 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Being okay with someone she didn't think was village being able to make an item from a role that could have 'bad, destructive outcomes' is something.

How would your opinion of Araris change based on Mat, Stick, and Karnatheon's potential alignments alignments?

Presumably every death will have a delayed flip, and we can't afford to only have a suspicion exe every other cycle.

An elim knows whether the elim team is all Epics, but a villager doesn't regardless of whether or not they're an Epic.

I'm reading their role as something that's High Risk, High Reward which idk, could be village or elim I guess? But either way unless Mat/Stick are E/E, it'd be weird to like, be okay with the Village getting it in their hands. Presumably, the item would explain why it's High Risk High Reward too, as well as the role reveal in the write-up, so /shrug

TBH I don't really think I care to try figuring that out until I know their alignments? Feels like a waste of time / a distraction to me. I guess I could put in the work but, well, that's work, and after the anon game I'm strictly against doing things because I think I have to. Just following the vibes ya'know.

I'm not saying every other cycle, since from every turn on from here (assuming we get an alignment flip at all), we'll always have an alignment flip to work off of, even if it's from two cycles ago.

Ah, I misunderstood the context. I thought your argument was that Stick had doubted the existence of Village Epics, not that Stick believed all elims would be Epics. Which, imo, is a fair assumption for a villager to make based on the faction names alone / without knowing the elim distro. Reckoner Allies and Corrupted Epics have very different contexts, since Allies could literally mean anything while Epics is a lil more specific.

10 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Why leaning Village on Dannex? (Yes, sorry, know I'm saying that a lot but he's firmly a null for me so I'm curious.)

Combined with my D1 views of Dannnex ("blackouts are fun" = got a role, but then completely vanishes all turn) and their posts today:

On 2/12/2022 at 0:22 PM, Dannnex said:

hmmm

well

this is interesting

anything actually important happen D1 or is it mostly fluff? Really don't feel like reading all that. 

 

Any chance there is no elim team? Just Vil and Neutrals? The lack of a kill is throwing me off...

On 2/12/2022 at 7:52 PM, Dannnex said:

man

i wish i was elim this game

i'm like
absolutely and completely flying under the radar rn
and it's completely by accident

how is nobody finding me sus for...anything yet

Can't really see an elim being completely out of the loop and actively inviting suspicion. Almost think he's got some kind of Jester role but even then, he's not putting effort into getting exed. It's one thing to lurk and say nothing (elimmy), another thing to be completely detached. So basically the only reason I'd want to exe Dannnex is to see what his role is for greater context of the game, and even that comes with a risk so, not highest priority? But could be persuaded if people really think he could be an elim despite this?

 

Thinking now tho, I'd maybe be down for a Karn exe too. Could see an elim epic that almost got randomly exed seeing a few v epics claim and get well-received for it, then doing the same for transparency cred. Also wouldn't doubt the elims have vote manip and the fact that his is a mirror for yours + advocating the conversion topic could also be him taking advantage of the mistaken lack of NK and my speculation to further distract us.

 

Also JNV is a player I want to discuss more because the meme I posted after his unsolicited wall post wasn't me saying I believe he's village, which Striker immediately ran with. The source of the meme is the character saying "Is this a pigeon?" when to anyone who knows what butterflies/pigeons are, isn't. I posted it because I honestly had no dang idea how to read it at the time. Like one part of me was like, yeah okay Villager bye, while the rest was like, are you sure about that???

ED1T:

Noting that my quoting Dannnex apparently summoned him to the thread. Wondering if he'll leave before posting.

Edited February 14, 2022 by Amanuensis

[danex he/him]

5 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

So basically the only reason I'd want to exe Dannnex is to see what his role is for greater context of the game, and even that comes with a risk so, not highest priority?

I can claim if you'd like.

Sorry for not reading everything, I always sign up for blackout games like "oooooh secrets fun"
and then when I'm actually playing them i'm like "wait, this is boring, there's no mechanics to talk about"
if there were PMs it'd be a whole different matter.
I'll def be more active once we get a few more flips and have more solid evidence to analyze. 

might RP in a bit, idk.

[Amanuensis he/him]

9 hours ago, Dannnex said:

I can claim if you'd like.

Sorry for not reading everything, I always sign up for blackout games like "oooooh secrets fun"
and then when I'm actually playing them i'm like "wait, this is boring, there's no mechanics to talk about"
if there were PMs it'd be a whole different matter.
I'll def be more active once we get a few more flips and have more solid evidence to analyze. 

might RP in a bit, idk.

Uhh, tbh I might be okay with claims in blackout games because yes it makes the elims job easier but it also makes the village's job significantly easier cause like you said, we know pretty much nothing about mechanics, and there's always room for lying anyway... BUT you shouldn't claim just because I would like you to. Players should do whatever they think is best imo.

I feel you on the boring thing, which is why your blackouts are fun post stood out to me. I started only knowing that I was roleless (which is pretty much what I wanted anyway, lets me be chill and focus solely on exe discussion, which I do find fun within itself) so people with roles immediately became obvious for me (Mat, Archer, Stick, etc).

Glad to know you'll be active later, happy to give you time to put in work before I determine your alignment.

RP is very welcome. I should do some too.

Edited February 14, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir he/him]

28 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I guess I could put in the work but, well, that's work, and after the anon game I'm strictly against doing things because I think I have to. Just following the vibes ya'know.

A+, I need to learn from this guy  Glad it's working well for you.

But also thanks, turning the thread into PM space to vibe with everyone has been great too  Or at least a good point in a game where I have been not doing so well on overcommitment.

28 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Can't really see an elim being completely out of the loop and actively inviting suspicion. Almost think he's got some kind of Jester role but even then, he's not putting effort into getting exed. It's one thing to lurk and say nothing (elimmy), another thing to be completely detached. So basically the only reason I'd want to exe Dannnex is to see what his role is for greater context of the game, and even that comes with a risk so, not highest priority? But could be persuaded if people really think he could be an elim despite this?

Danex apparently is good at being dgaf/detached as an Elim, but I'd need to ask @Archer or @Illwei about that as I recall them mentioning it in passing during AG8 when people were trying to work Danex out? Maybe? IDK it's blurring in my head now. He's not at least on the top of my sus lists.

Oh hello there @Dannnex  Nice to see you too!

Totally down for more RP, this thread has not seen enough RP at all.

28 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Thinking now tho, I'd maybe be down for a Karn exe too. Could see an elim epic that almost got randomly exed seeing a few v epics claim and get well-received for it, then doing the same for transparency cred. Also wouldn't doubt the elims have vote manip and the fact that his is a mirror for yours + advocating the conversion topic could also be him taking advantage of the mistaken lack of NK and my speculation to further distract us.

Going to be honest that my main beef with Karn is just gut off our interaction this cycle, nothing especially solid or strong. But I think even getting Mat's flip would help with both Karn and Devo to some extent. I do share a high credence the Elims have vote manip - I get that AG8 was a troll distro but again, we don't have full sight of the distro, so I feel hesitant to rolelynch/rolesus too far. The fact TJ PAFOs all OoA questions from anyone does increase my credence that it's possible something went badly awry with the NK, but at the same time, why would an OoA put a lynch before a kill? (Unless it has to do with Striker's wincon, or something else, I guess.)

28 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Also JNV is a player I want to discuss more because the meme I posted after his unsolicited wall post wasn't me saying I believe he's village, which Striker immediately ran with. The source of the meme is the character saying "Is this a pigeon?" when to anyone who knows what butterflies/pigeons are, isn't. I posted it because I honestly had no dang idea how to read it at the time. Like one part of me was like, yeah okay Villager bye, while the rest was like, are you sure about that???

Tfw the meme got lost in translation apparently  

IDK, I like JNV's takes on a general level, though I need to take a closer look at the specifics, and I'm interested that JNV didn't want to vote Devo (the main sus he mentioned, even if a weak sus) but went to Devo after being asked about it. I sort of feel this ambivalence because this sort of happened to me in LG82: Mage (not the Mage you know) was lurking, Archer and I pressured Mage, and Mage swept in with a nice readslist, and then sort of just faded back into the background, and was Evil. I like that JNV did it without prompting, though, because it looks a bit better if you engage without having to be under threat of death, and I like that JNV is voting, because at least that's a track record that can be analysed.

Just saying this since my vote will be eaten up anyway, but - I still go to and fro on Devo over our interactions, and probably why I'd hoped to get a better sense for how we think via train negotiations, but it's the Stick context and that exchange that still confuses me, I guess. I get baiting a train, but I feel like if you want to understand what motivates a train, besides baiting, you should be interested in engaging with the people on the train. And I still think that even if you think you and myself were tunnelling on Mat, the contrast in the level of discussion and reasons given for both trains is visceral. I find it hard in light of that to just not engage with the content difference or the voters and to immediately read more activity on a train that had been pretty active for most of the cycle anyway as enemy action. It's not impossible, but feels like you have to skip a few steps to get to that level of inference, I suppose, which is why I am not absolutely certain but I am honestly okay with a LAFO in this context.

12 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

RP is very welcome. I should do some too.

Same... :/

Edited to add: I asked Araris the question I did because I think he's better at asking himself the What Would The Elim Do question than I seem to be, and I struggle here because to me, if you have V!Mat credences (which is one possibility I considered), then E!Devo tying off with a vote on Stick and refusing to move just seems...odd. I'm trying to understand what is gained by it, or why E!Devo would go for that. I suppose it could be a reaction to Karn coming up, but feels like you could just ignore Karn and not react, on the assumption that's V!Karn? 

I just don't really understand it.

Edited to add 2: I guess on the assumption that E!Karn, there's a sort of connection in target there due to E!Karn pulling from himself onto Stick...

Edited February 14, 2022 by Kasimir

[Amanuensis he/him]

9 hours ago, Kasimir said:

A+, I need to learn from this guy  Glad it's working well for you.

But also thanks, turning the thread into PM space to vibe with everyone has been great too  Or at least a good point in a game where I have been not doing so well on overcommitment.

NGL this turn has kind of been a breath of fresh air after D1? Like, it's undoubtedly been less productive since a lot of it has been centered on game mechanic speculation rather than actually trying to exe anybody, but I'm kinda glad for it. Especially since it's helping you too

9 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Going to be honest that my main beef with Karn is just gut off our interaction this cycle, nothing especially solid or strong. But I think even getting Mat's flip would help with both Karn and Devo to some extent. I do share a high credence the Elims have vote manip - I get that AG8 was a troll distro but again, we don't have full sight of the distro, so I feel hesitant to rolelynch/rolesus too far. The fact TJ PAFOs all OoA questions from anyone does increase my credence that it's possible something went badly awry with the NK, but at the same time, why would an OoA put a lynch before a kill? (Unless it has to do with Striker's wincon, or something else, I guess.)

TBH I'm pretty invested in D1 V/V trains right now. Idk if anyone cares but the reason why I mentioned tunneling re:Mat a lot is because of my nature. I'm a Pisces Sun and Capricorn Rising, so there's always this duality with me where I'm very Feeling-based (Pisces/Water) but also Logic-based (Cap/Earth). Mat gave me so many village feelings but a lot of logical failings as well. This is a reoccurring conflict I have IRL (especially when dealing with other people), which is mafia distilled, so I'm always torn in those scenarios (especially given my past history of people deliberately using feelings to dismiss logical inconsistencies I noticed in their behavior, which turned out to be right). Alas, those experiences have left me with a lot of self-doubt, hence me overcompensating by doubling down on Mat being elim until the very end.

I basically feel like, even while leaning most of the Mat voters as Village, a vast majority came in after I publicized said logical inconsistencies (hence the train meme) and given it was D1 and we almost never have good reasons to exe someone on D1, a Villager would feel more inclined to join a well-thought-out exe versus one that no one really pushed for. Which is also why I think most elims would prefer to stay away from it entirely and go for another Villager instead, to set up a future miss-exe / make themselves look better for not joining the Mat train.

9 hours ago, Kasimir said:

IDK, I like JNV's takes on a general level, though I need to take a closer look at the specifics, and I'm interested that JNV didn't want to vote Devo (the main sus he mentioned, even if a weak sus) but went to Devo after being asked about it. I sort of feel this ambivalence because this sort of happened to me in LG82: Mage (not the Mage you know) was lurking, Archer and I pressured Mage, and Mage swept in with a nice readslist, and then sort of just faded back into the background, and was Evil. I like that JNV did it without prompting, though, because it looks a bit better if you engage without having to be under threat of death, and I like that JNV is voting, because at least that's a track record that can be analysed.

It's definitely a good play from either side is where I'm at. As a whole it looks like a villager thing, which an elim could replicate (I did it in the anon game) and be encouraged by more experienced elims on the team, so that's why I want to look at the individual reads within and compare it to their votes (which I'll probably do soon). 

9 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Edited to add 2: I guess on the assumption that E!Karn, there's a sort of connection in target there due to E!Karn pulling from himself onto Stick...

This stands out to me too, mostly because he decided to claim today. Like, he went out of the way to obscure his role in the first place, only to claim today when it looked like people are receiving Epic claims well + discussing conversion mechanics over a traditional team. That and the fact that we still don't know why another vote is missing from the EoD Karn train.

This reminds me of something I wanted to do earlier but forgor.

On 2/12/2022 at 10:28 AM, |TJ| said:

Karnatheon (2): Kasimir, Araris Valerian, Tani, Amanuensis

Okay so, in a scenario where a Soother removed one of Araris, Tani, or my votes but wasn't there at EoD, where did we all sit originally?

Araris on Mat. Myself on Mat. Tani on Stick.

Karn moved a vote off of Mat and onto Stick, hence Stick gaining 1. Which means Karn/Stick can't be E/E, but Karn/Mat could be E/E,

You took a vote off of Mat, which accounts for the second lost vote on him.

So what's more likely? Elim!Soother trying to cancel Araris' vote/my vote on Mat, or Elim!Soother trying to cancel Tani's vote on Stick?

ED1T:

OR THE ALTERNATIVE, where the Soother was there at EoD and decided to remove a vote from Karn, rather than Mat or Stick.

Which again brings me to thinking Karn could very well be E, since I'm V-leaning Mat and Stick.

ED2T:

Oh yeah, @STINK. I currently think you're a Regular too (based on your response to Mat not understanding why anyone could be certain about Regulars in the game), but you're probably smart enough to draw the conclusion independent of your own role. Not exactly asking for a claim, but I'm inviting it if you think it's worthwhile.

Edited February 14, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Ashbringer he/him]

Oh yeah. The Weatherman. So much for RPing as not-Faleast. But analyzing's more important.

Please note this is very hodgepodge, based on just my memory and not actually rereading threads, and it's also 1 AM for me... I wish that number scared me more...

Let's try your guys' style.

Village+

Spoiler

• Trust no one 

Village

Spoiler

• Experience. Partially depends on Devotary's alignment, but everything they've been doing seems mostly village, particularly trying to dredge up leads in the midst of the great Mat-Stick shuffle. Even voting me. Less solidly village than some, but definitely a village read.
• Kasimir. What did you expect. But particularly the number of rabbit holes he's willing to go down in Conversion style. That, and his own points about Archer: the more he talks, the more chances to slip up. Plus, he's being helpful and he's claimed. No reason not to trust yet.
• Ashbringer. Pretty sure he's village. Pretty sure. 
• Amanuensis. Largely same reasons as Kas, plus I want to play with him as Aman and not just Hyena. Selfish, but that's not exactly out of character for me. Helping solve the game. Paranoia levels minimal.

Null+

Spoiler

• Illwei. I'm not sure where they've gone to, and they probably have a good reason, but they were pretty active last cycle and much less this cycle. Them being the first vote on Stick makes me trust them a little more than some of the other Stick voters, but that's not too much. Also from what I remember, it seemed mostly standard Illwei. 
• Karnatheon. For all the hubbub last cycle, they seem to be ready and willing to help this one. They've been interacting a lot more than the other new / almost new players. Not enough for me to really trust, because apparently four of you all didn't, but they seem like a good player and relatively shrewd.
• Archer. Sigh. I don't trust Archer. But if he's evil he took a big risk in claiming, and gave us a lot of info while he was at it. Hopefully that continues. I don't trust it, but it has promise. Also a polar bear.

Null

Spoiler

• StrikerEZ. As much as I'd love to put you somewhere else... I don't know if it would be higher or lower. Random neutral claim, could use investigating but Kas is on the case for that. Could be a gamebreaking scanner. Could do something else. Could literally blow up in our faces, Obliteration. I don't know.
• The Unknown Aon. I tunnel on TUA. A lot. Far too much. But if this turns into a conversion game, TUA's one I'm keeping an eye on. Not voting, not probably for a while, but... idk.
• STINK. hi stink. Some interactions, some questions, not a lot of info. Idk.
• _Stick_. Sort of the opposite boat as Archer. Or maybe the exact same boat as Archer, just with a few more holes in it. Stick stuck her neck out, and vote manip tried to stick it out further... well, that's a pun... anyway, has promise. Keeping an eye on. And making hypotheses, most of which end with things exploding.
• MintSilverTea. New, obviously watching but not interacting as much.
• JNV. New, interacting, all good things to see, but not enough to stick with me, apparently. Null but above Mint.
• Thaidikar_the_Ghostblood. New and around, but confused with rules. And thus confusing. Null but below Mint.
• Dannnex. Been a little more chaotic than usual, but other than that unassuming enough to be left off of the original reads list, so idk.

Null-

Spoiler

• Araris Valerian. If Mat flips Elim, that was textbook Araris. Unfortunately, pretty sure Araris's read the textbook. And memorized it. But aside from voting patterns... I don't know. Araris hasn't stood out to me, and that's worrying. A little.
• Devotary of Spontaneity. Positioning on the Stick train, and the posts that Stick brought up about seeming justification. Devo's in the same boat as Araris where I can't really pick out anything to read, so I read them lower... but I like Stick's points, and not being tied too directly to the Mat exe entirely means if we need to spend C4 talking about Devo's flip, that'll work.
• Szeth_Pancakes. I'm pretty sure they said they'd be highly inactive, and if that's the case I might move this to Null, but it's a converter hiding spot (hello, Dingo) and I don't remember any obvious Szeth posts. 

Elim

Spoiler

• Tani. Mostly the timing of the Stick vote (right before Mat self presed) and then not doing much until... I need to reread the Karn swing. But it's a candidate for an E!Mat teammate and a candidate for a solo converter, and right now that's good enough for me.
• Orlok Tsubodai. Catching up, like me, but they were looking at C1 a lot and not posting a lot... or more than once. I'm not really used to Orlok's spreadsheet style but that didn't seem to have any catching to it either. Not really a great vote target, especially from Vulture guit, but... it's a lead, and it's more personal than the Null- ones. (Edit: and as soon as I post this, Orlok's viewing the thread... not sure if that proves my point or is about to disprove it.)

Elim-

Spoiler

• ... trust everyone? Idk what this category is really. Anyone have an alignment scanner besides the Riot Striker Special? Don't answer that.

Memes

Spoiler

45 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

54 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

RP is very welcome. I should do some too.

Same... :/

... sigh

Spoiler

Well, for the complete lack of effort that took that went longer than expected. Any questions? No? Good. But if you do, I'll be awake for maaaaybe an hour, then good night and good groggy morning.

So I will toss a slightly selfish vote on Tani. If you need me to move to Devo for panick reasons, you'll know where to find me.

Edit: ... forgot Dannnex existed. Well, that's a reason to go into the Null pile if I've ever seen one. (Sorry Dannnex)

Edited February 14, 2022 by Ashbringer
oh hi orlok

[danex he/him]

3 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Village+

i'll just assume that i'm in this category since i don't seem to be anywhere else

unless i'm just blind and bad at reading

it is 3 am so i wouldnt be surprised

Edited February 14, 2022 by Dannnex

[Ashbringer he/him]

Just now, Dannnex said:

i'll just assume that i'm in this category since i don't seem to be anywhere else

unless i'm just blind and bad at reading

it is 3 am so i wouldnt be surprised

Nope... apparently I go blind an hour earlier...

[Amanuensis he/him]

@|TJ| do you have a vote count handy? Too lazy to make one myself rn

[|TJ| he/him]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

@|TJ| do you have a vote count handy? Too lazy to make one myself rn

Yeah, sure. Should be this - 

Devotary of Spontaneity (4): Archer, _Stick_, JNV, Amanuensis
StrikerEZ (2): STINK, Thaidakar the Ghostblood
Experience (1): Araris Valerian
Araris Valerian (1): Experience
Tani (1): Ashbringer
Karnatheon (1): StrikerEZ
_Stick_ (1): Devotary of Spontaneity
Szeth_Pancakes (1): Kasimir

[Amanuensis he/him]

9 hours ago, |TJ| said:

Yeah, sure. Should be this - 

Devotary of Spontaneity (4): Archer, _Stick_, JNV, Amanuensis
StrikerEZ (2): STINK, Thaidakar the Ghostblood
Experience (1): Araris Valerian
Araris Valerian (1): Experience
Tani (1): Ashbringer
Karnatheon (1): StrikerEZ
_Stick_ (1): Devotary of Spontaneity
Szeth_Pancakes (1): Kasimir

TYVM. For some reason I thought Tani had another vote, but that might've been Kas before voting Szeth.

What do I wanna doooo

Edited February 14, 2022 by Amanuensis
Moved edit to new post

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

TYVM. For some reason I thought Tani had another vote, but that might've been Kas before voting Szeth.

It was me, yeah.

Low key tempted to follow my views and shift to Devo even though it won't matter anyway.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Making my last edit a post since Kas brought us to a new page right after.

Devotary. Karnatheon.

Might as well see if this train can take off to save Devo.

9 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Devotary of Spontaneity (3): Archer, _Stick_, JNV,
StrikerEZ (2): STINK, Thaidakar the Ghostblood
Karnatheon (2): StrikerEZ, Amanuensis
Experience (1): Araris Valerian
Araris Valerian (1): Experience
Tani (1): Ashbringer
_Stick_ (1): Devotary of Spontaneity
Szeth_Pancakes (1): Kasimir

ED1T:

@Thaidakar the Ghostblood do you really want to vote a claimed neutral still, and not a potential elim?

Edited February 14, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Ashbringer he/him]

11 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

It was me, yeah.

Low key tempted to follow my views and shift to Devo even though it won't matter anyway.

TBH, you could get roleblocked. That would be fun. 

9 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Making my last edit a post since Kas brought us to a new page right after.

Devotary. Karnatheon.

Might as well see if this train can take off to save Devo.

Here we go agaaaaaaain

[Amanuensis he/him]

9 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Here we go agaaaaaaain

TBF I suspect both Devo and Karn and think they could be teammates, but also could not be, so it's a win-win in my book  if one of them is E at least the elims will surely feel compelled to do something. If both of them are E then it'll get even more interesting

ED1T:

Oh yeah, @Orlok Tsubodai, my buddy, my pal, my friend. I hope you're not killing yourself trying to do the spreadsheet thing because today is also up to 10 pages now and that's pretty kayana on top of D1's activity.

I know it's your thing and that at the very least you want to internalize everything before you properly get into the game, but I would love your insight in the here and now, so I kinda have a suggestion (which you can say no to or not).

At the start of this game I tried doing what you do (kinda), except I didn't make comments on every single post, just the ones that stood out to me. I gave up on Page 5 because that's when my tunnel on Mat formed and I couldn't do anything but want to vote him, but it might be a good call for you at this point in order to lighten the load.

Hope you're doing well

Edited February 14, 2022 by Amanuensis
Added two more lines

[Kasimir he/him]

32 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Okay so, in a scenario where a Soother removed one of Araris, Tani, or my votes but wasn't there at EoD, where did we all sit originally?

Araris on Mat. Myself on Mat. Tani on Stick.

Karn moved a vote off of Mat and onto Stick, hence Stick gaining 1. Which means Karn/Stick can't be E/E, but Karn/Mat could be E/E,

You took a vote off of Mat, which accounts for the second lost vote on him.

So what's more likely? Elim!Soother trying to cancel Araris' vote/my vote on Mat, or Elim!Soother trying to cancel Tani's vote on Stick?

ED1T:

OR THE ALTERNATIVE, where the Soother was there at EoD and decided to remove a vote from Karn, rather than Mat or Stick.

Which again brings me to thinking Karn could very well be E, since I'm V-leaning Mat and Stick.

Soother trying to save Stick is odd to me, in that it would give us a fractured picture of the vote manip that happened. Because Karn is responsible for a move towards Stick, I'm responsible for trying to save Mat by killing Karn, and my instinctive read of the situation is sort of opposite of Devo's - I don't really see it as trying to save Stick, I see it as trying to save Mat. I'm partly trying to work out why, but it's probably because so much of the discussion and energy was about Mat, and then Stick sort of just happened and Illwei herself lampshaded it, that we don't have full sight of why that train became a deal. (We now know Striker claimed neutral, and Tani claimed a bad gut, but.)

It's not impossible, it's just odd.

Soother trying to remove a vote from Karn is also interesting because that could imply E Karn (I suppose it could be an Elim messing around, but eh - sometimes you do have to commit and verify.) But I feel the first scenario is almost just a few shades away from E Mat and E Karn, and I don't like how the E Karn possibility looms up again in the second scenario.

37 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

This stands out to me too, mostly because he decided to claim today. Like, he went out of the way to obscure his role in the first place, only to claim today when it looked like people are receiving Epic claims well + discussing conversion mechanics over a traditional team. That and the fact that we still don't know why another vote is missing from the EoD Karn train.

I think that's where I struggled again with his claim that he asked about conversion mechanisms. I get it could be an Epic/Reckoners flavour thing, and I'm biased against conversion games, but even in the absence of information (i.e. blackout), that or a zero Elim C1 really isn't my intuitive read of the situation, and if you have some amount of zero Elim credence, then what are you doing voting on a main train when you don't have to? It's just a thought process that doesn't really make sense to me. And I also tend to feel suspicious of too much conversion discussion prior to - well, the weirdness with the NK, if he claimed to have it on the mind, because that's sort of the thing Elims would like Village to get distracted about, as you can't solidify your reads too much in a conversion game and the blackout nature makes it worse.

He did give a possible answer, I'm just still mulling over the number of questions I have.

41 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

It's definitely a good play from either side is where I'm at. As a whole it looks like a villager thing, which an elim could replicate (I did it in the anon game) and be encouraged by more experienced elims on the team, so that's why I want to look at the individual reads within and compare it to their votes (which I'll probably do soon). 

Overall agreed.

43 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

TBH I'm pretty invested in D1 V/V trains right now. Idk if anyone cares but the reason why I mentioned tunneling re:Mat a lot is because of my nature. I'm a Pisces Sun and Capricorn Rising, so there's always this duality with me where I'm very Feeling-based (Pisces/Water) but also Logic-based (Cap/Earth). Mat gave me so many village feelings but a lot of logical failings as well. This is a reoccurring conflict I have IRL (especially when dealing with other people), which is mafia distilled, so I'm always torn in those scenarios (especially given my past history of people deliberately using feelings to dismiss logical inconsistencies I noticed in their behavior, which turned out to be right). Alas, those experiences have left me with a lot of self-doubt, hence me overcompensating by doubling down on Mat being elim until the very end.

I sigh as I basically see my same failings and responses here  I over-tunnel on logic/argumentative flaws and disregard the feelings that tell me otherwise (hi LG12 Orlok, sorry), or just go full hog on the feelings and ignore the logic; spent most of C1 in a haze of self-doubt with my brain continuously going, "This could be Iguana round 2. Do you want to make it Iguana round 2? Are you sure?" which probably explains what Archer calls a playstyle but is just me doubting and overcompensating by going around in circles and rethinking things at least fifty times and overcommitting as a result.

Ideally I'd find a happy medium but what is moderation even  So instead, I go to and fro on Mat and the thread has the spectacle of extremely indecisive Kas >>

47 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I basically feel like, even while leaning most of the Mat voters as Village, a vast majority came in after I publicized said logical inconsistencies (hence the train meme) and given it was D1 and we almost never have good reasons to exe someone on D1, a Villager would feel more inclined to join a well-thought-out exe versus one that no one really pushed for. Which is also why I think most elims would prefer to stay away from it entirely and go for another Villager instead, to set up a future miss-exe / make themselves look better for not joining the Mat train.

Possible, but I would still expect an Elim or two on the train (insert Bane meme here) - but would agree that with the amount of attention drawn to what they know would be a bad train, I could see a desire to hide in the crowd but also to generally stay off the bad train. But I admit I am not as sure: I still keep hopping between the E/V and V/V/ possibilities and the flip will really help with that I suppose. Still the conflict where my head thinks there's some reason to think Mat Evil, and my heart disagrees strongly.

But I think even the thread is divided on this, given my discussion with Archer.

49 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

NGL this turn has kind of been a breath of fresh air after D1? Like, it's undoubtedly been less productive since a lot of it has been centered on game mechanic speculation rather than actually trying to exe anybody, but I'm kinda glad for it. Especially since it's helping you too

Chill cycle indeed, and yeah  I've not stayed away as much as I wanted to, but at least it's helping me push through the fog of guilt/overcompensation/stress/doubt, which will hopefully at least free me from analysis paralysis.

10 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

TBH, you could get roleblocked. That would be fun. 

Ah, but then we'd know they have roleblocks

9 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

TBF I suspect both Devo and Karn and think they could be teammates, but also could not be, so it's a win-win in my book  if one of them is E at least the elims will surely feel compelled to do something. If both of them are E then it'll get even more interesting

kel approves of this chaos >:D

[Amanuensis he/him]

Oh yeah, another problem I have reconciling with Karn that I dunno if it's been talked about before.

@Kasimir Karn originally voted Archer for claiming Village Epic, right? But now he's claiming Village Epic?

Like, what.

[Ashbringer he/him]

wait what.

[Amanuensis he/him]

9 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

wait what.

 

[Kasimir he/him]

10 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

@Kasimir Karn originally voted Archer for claiming Village Epic, right? But now he's claiming Village Epic?

 

Huh. Point. I'd categorised it in my head as an infolynch but you're right.