Mid-Range Game 56: Day of Reckoning

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1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

Not calling you bad I'm just saying I'm better. Hyperconfidence ftw.

psh

as if

it's not like you actually ranked third in your qualifier but it's not like ahhaah votes mean anything anyways amirite it's all a lie jury picks are where it's at

I acknowledge your argument as what I just said was the only thing I would consider a point against archer among the non-points, just more fleshed out. And I will continue to defend him because I am stubborn and I simply don't like the fact that everyone seems to be on him right now, and none of it is for the "he is blatantly filled with TMI" point, but for the "I don't believe your role is real" point.

@|TJ| grumble grumble annoying name to type

@TJ Shade can we get a VC

[Amanuensis he/him]

9 hours ago, Illwei said:

I acknowledge your argument as what I just said was the only thing I would consider a point against archer among the non-points, just more fleshed out. And I will continue to defend him because I am stubborn and I simply don't like the fact that everyone seems to be on him right now, and none of it is for the "he is blatantly filled with TMI" point, but for the "I don't believe your role is real" point.

Gah, fair enough. I'm hella stubborn too, if that wasn't abundantly clear from this cycle

I guess if we can't agree on the points against him, then we can at least engage in a slightly different way.

10 hours ago, Illwei said:

I honestly believe that Archer definitely shouldn't die here.

Why shouldn't he die? What is the real loss? Archer has made no significant contributions to this game. It doesn't seem like he will have much time to do anything in the near future. It's basically D1 3.0 with no alignment flips. So who do we kill? You to confirm that your alignment will flip because of your one-of-a-kind role that none of the other 17 claimants have?

What does Illwei consider a "good" wagon today? Why aren't you making it?

[Ashbringer he/him]

21 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I don't know who started the theory that Elims could either NK or obscure the flip. If it was archer then I have more questions there, because he referenced it as if it wasn't him who first voiced the theory :P. but if it's the case then, well, I don't know, but that tells us something regardless.

Either way, again. my role PM implies that I flip with an alignment, and TJ has said that there are alignment flips in the game. If it's not a villager coming forward with a role then I have to assume it's something that either has to be roleblocked or something that is only applicable under certain circumstances.

Hmm. I doubt there would be a Village role to obscure exe alignment flips. Those are infinitely more useful to the Village than the Elim team, even with Neutrals.

IMO there are three options: it's an Elim or Neutral role that's blocking flips permanently, it's an Elim role blocking them temporarily, or it's a game condition not controlled by anyone.

A game condition should go away at some point, and it would fit the Events mentioned by TJ. But we as a thread don't know what would cause that. It's possible it's just a cycle progression thing, it's possible X amount of players need to die, anything's possible. It's out of our control.

A temporary Elim role, like a Janitor, usually can only "clean" a certain amount of players. It would be the only thing we've seen run on charges, but I don't know how else it would work. If that's the case, we either wait or go action hunting. Which then invariably turns into non-claim-and-inactive-hunting.

A permanent Elim role is mostly the same solution, action hunting. Except we can't afford to wait, because what we also don't know is if killing them will flip the alignments we already lost on Mat and Karn. Hence Archer, as the only person who knew alignment flips could be lost before Mat died.

I think it's entirely possible Archer's telling the truth. I just don't think its probable, and we're once again in a position where as long as Archer's alive this debate will keep circling. Janitors can be balanced with Mediums, but Mediums get a reputation for not being very helpful in the long run, and that's with full Doc power instead of three yes/no questions. Revivers are strong, but without alignment flips that's hard to swallow. (I do think it's noteworthy that an E!Archer hasn't revived E!Mat.) 

 

 

Actually, you know what, screw it.

Illwei, how confident are you that you'll actually flip? And how confident are you in Archer? I'm assuming you'll flip Village, of course.

Because we could exe you instead of Archer and let Archer revive you. If you're right, we get to learn a bit more about what causes this alignment flip problem, you get confirmed villager status, and Archer can walk free. If you're wrong... well, that would be a problem. Plus there's the problem of needing to keep Aman from killing Archer for two more cycles.

Okay, it's a terrible idea. But it is an idea.

 

One other thing - @StrikerEZ, does your wincon have to do with voting? 

[StrikerEZ he/him]

2 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

One other thing - @StrikerEZ, does your wincon have to do with voting? 

Tangentially

[Ashbringer he/him]

Just now, StrikerEZ said:

Tangentially

Does it have anything to do with stealing both living and dead people’s identities? 

[Amanuensis he/him]

16 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Hmm. I doubt there would be a Village role to obscure exe alignment flips. Those are infinitely more useful to the Village than the Elim team, even with Neutrals.

IMO there are three options: it's an Elim or Neutral role that's blocking flips permanently, it's an Elim role blocking them temporarily, or it's a game condition not controlled by anyone.

A game condition should go away at some point, and it would fit the Events mentioned by TJ. But we as a thread don't know what would cause that. It's possible it's just a cycle progression thing, it's possible X amount of players need to die, anything's possible. It's out of our control.

A temporary Elim role, like a Janitor, usually can only "clean" a certain amount of players. It would be the only thing we've seen run on charges, but I don't know how else it would work. If that's the case, we either wait or go action hunting. Which then invariably turns into non-claim-and-inactive-hunting.

A permanent Elim role is mostly the same solution, action hunting. Except we can't afford to wait, because what we also don't know is if killing them will flip the alignments we already lost on Mat and Karn. Hence Archer, as the only person who knew alignment flips could be lost before Mat died.

I think it's entirely possible Archer's telling the truth. I just don't think its probable, and we're once again in a position where as long as Archer's alive this debate will keep circling. Janitors can be balanced with Mediums, but Mediums get a reputation for not being very helpful in the long run, and that's with full Doc power instead of three yes/no questions. Revivers are strong, but without alignment flips that's hard to swallow. (I do think it's noteworthy that an E!Archer hasn't revived E!Mat.) 

 

 

Actually, you know what, screw it.

Illwei, how confident are you that you'll actually flip? And how confident are you in Archer? I'm assuming you'll flip Village, of course.

Because we could exe you instead of Archer and let Archer revive you. If you're right, we get to learn a bit more about what causes this alignment flip problem, you get confirmed villager status, and Archer can walk free. If you're wrong... well, that would be a problem. Plus there's the problem of needing to keep Aman from killing Archer for two more cycles.

Okay, it's a terrible idea. But it is an idea.

 

One other thing - @StrikerEZ, does your wincon have to do with voting? 

Thank you for being the voice of reason I need to chill out  #VillageBros

Edited February 16, 2022 by Amanuensis

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12 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Actually, you know what, screw it.

Illwei, how confident are you that you'll actually flip? And how confident are you in Archer? I'm assuming you'll flip Village, of course.

Because we could exe you instead of Archer and let Archer revive you. If you're right, we get to learn a bit more about what causes this alignment flip problem, you get confirmed villager status, and Archer can walk free. If you're wrong... well, that would be a problem. Plus there's the problem of needing to keep Aman from killing Archer for two more cycles.

Okay, it's a terrible idea. But it is an idea.

here's another reason why I think Ash is a villager this game.

[Amanuensis he/him]

9 hours ago, Illwei said:

here's another reason why I think Ash is a villager this game.

Didn't you vote him at the start of this turn for "reasons" you never explained?

Anyway...

Ultimately, I refuse to believe a Medium/Reviver is in a game with indefinite or infinite no flips. I can only see a role like that working if flips are delayed by a single turn. Note how Archer claimed his role only works if the player's alignment has not been revealed. Note how we've yet to see any alignments after 2 exes. Note how there have been zero elim night kills, assuming that Devo is truthfully a Neutral SK. The pieces just don't fit together.

Beyond that, I believe the elims have known about the no alignment flips and village epics from the start, and Archer's claim was always a ploy to prop one of them up in our good graces by warning us.

ED1T:

@Illwei so who do we exe today, if not Archer? Serious question. Who do you think needs to die the most, based on your reads? I'm always down for a side wagon to see who prefers what, so...

Edited February 16, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Stick. she/her]

2 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

^ I'll add Stick to this question as well, and also urge Tani to ask TJ what happens if you copy a one-use power.

yea, when Mat claimed I asked TJ what it would mean wtr my role cuz like, would he just straight up get a copy of my entire role?? since it's single-use 

TJ PAFO'd it, since answering would've been confirming/denying Mat's roleclaim. I didn't bother asking the same question for Tani's role cuz I can guess the answer  

I have no idea what the VC is like but I'll Archer anyway because there's vote manip and also mysterious gifts going around anything can happen esp if he is E

 

[Amanuensis he/him]

On 2/15/2022 at 0:38 AM, Amanuensis said:

Amanuensis	Regular Reckoner
Illwei	Claimed Epic ([Redirector])
Matrim’s Dice	Non-Epic Knighthawk Scientist
Experience	Claimed Epic (D-coy [Lurcher])
Kasimir	Claimed Epic (Inception [Rioter])
StrikerEZ	Claimed Neutral Epic (Mimic [Action Doubler)
The Unknown Aon	Regular Reckoner
Araris Valerian	Claimed Epic (WiMP [Action Swapper])
Ashbringer	Claimed Epic (Gifter [Free Powers!])
Tani	Claimed Epic (Robin Hood [Ability Steal])
Karnatheon	Epic (Pendulum [Rioter])
Devotary of Spontaneity	Claimed Neutral Non-Epic (Huntress [SK])
Archer	Claimed Epic (Medium)
STINK
_Stick_	Claimed Epic (Passive Survival + One Shot)
Szeth_Pancakes
MintSilverTea	INACTIVE
JNV	Claimed Regular Reckoner
Thaidakar the Ghostblood	Claimed Epic (Unknown)
Orlok Tsubodai	Claimed Epic (Lookout)
Dannnex	Claimed "Not Vanilla"

@Szeth_Pancakes you and Stink are the only players remaining who at least haven't mentioned if they have a role or are Regular. If neither of you is lying (and no one else is) this game has a whopping 3 Regulars (TUA, JNV, me) which is kinda insane. Or 4, I guess, if Mint ends up dying instead of getting replaced.

ED1T:

@Archer Look, friend. Benefit of the doubt. If you are Village, please use the remaining time today to help us figure out who the real elims are. It's not me or Kas - anyone who's kept up with the thread can tell you that. It could be Orlok maybe but tbh I doubt it and would not exe him until C5 the earliest, probably even later, depending on how the village performs in the future. So please don't bother wasting any of your votes there.

We're just lost, man. We need direction. No one else is aware of the thing you've been aware of from D1, and you have to admit it's kinda weird after getting all the claims we have since. If we see your role flip, then we can figure out the way forward. But if you really are Village, then we should be able to do it with you too.

So please, show me that you're trying to solve the game even a little bit. Maybe do some of that distro speculation you talked about today, even. Maybe help us figure out who could be lying among these role claims. It's the only chance of me being willing to give you a shot.

Edited February 16, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Ashbringer he/him]

2 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

@Szeth_Pancakes you and Stink are the only players remaining who at least haven't mentioned if they have a role or are Regular. If neither of you is lying (and no one else is) this game has a whopping 3 Regulars (TUA, JNV, me) which is kinda insane. Or 4, I guess, if Mint ends up dying instead of getting replaced.

... oh yeah.

In case giant spreadsheet didn't make it obvious, I'm the Gifter Epic. I grant a random ability to a player each cycle. Tried to give on to Aman C2, Araris ate it instead. 

Now, three interesting things.

One, I know some - but not all - of the abilities I can give. One is Protects - Experience's power. One is simply labeled "vote manipulation", which TJ PAFO'd and is apparently a Soothe and not a Riot unless Araris lied about that for some reason, but someone also apparently Soothed. And one is Redirects. Illwei's power.

Two, I gave Illwei my first Gift. And Illwei's only claimed to use Redirects C2. Which makes me wonder if she's even a Redirector Epic at all.

Three, I can hand out a few other powers. Notably, Roleblocks. Which makes me wonder if one of our two non-claims or three Regulars is actually a Roleblock Epic who either has gotten very lucky while being very silent, or hasn't been trying to stop kills.

(Four, TJ directly said no to me being able to give someone the ability to talk to the dead, but I don't think that means much. I haven't gone through every single role claim yet.)

[Amanuensis he/him]

15 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

... oh yeah.

In case giant spreadsheet didn't make it obvious, I'm the Gifter Epic. I grant a random ability to a player each cycle. Tried to give on to Aman C2, Araris ate it instead. 

Now, three interesting things.

One, I know some - but not all - of the abilities I can give. One is Protects - Experience's power. One is simply labeled "vote manipulation", which TJ PAFO'd and is apparently a Soothe and not a Riot unless Araris lied about that for some reason, but someone also apparently Soothed. And one is Redirects. Illwei's power.

Two, I gave Illwei my first Gift. And Illwei's only claimed to use Redirects C2. Which makes me wonder if she's even a Redirector Epic at all.

Three, I can hand out a few other powers. Notably, Roleblocks. Which makes me wonder if one of our two non-claims or three Regulars is actually a Roleblock Epic who either has gotten very lucky while being very silent, or hasn't been trying to stop kills.

(Four, TJ directly said no to me being able to give someone the ability to talk to the dead, but I don't think that means much. I haven't gone through every single role claim yet.)

TBH I thought it was you which is actually hella comforting, ty for the confirmation.

@Illwei are you a Regular too? Why the heck are you giving me any flack?

ED1T:

Likelihood of Team Village having both Knighthawk Scientist and Gifter Epic...

Evaluating...

Evaluating...

@Kasimir was Mat right?

Edited February 16, 2022 by Amanuensis

[---]

5 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

... oh yeah.

In case giant spreadsheet didn't make it obvious, I'm the Gifter Epic. I grant a random ability to a player each cycle. Tried to give on to Aman C2, Araris ate it instead. 

Now, three interesting things.

One, I know some - but not all - of the abilities I can give. One is Protects - Experience's power. One is simply labeled "vote manipulation", which TJ PAFO'd and is apparently a Soothe and not a Riot unless Araris lied about that for some reason, but someone also apparently Soothed. And one is Redirects. Illwei's power.

Two, I gave Illwei my first Gift. And Illwei's only claimed to use Redirects C2. Which makes me wonder if she's even a Redirector Epic at all.

Three, I can hand out a few other powers. Notably, Roleblocks. Which makes me wonder if one of our two non-claims or three Regulars is actually a Roleblock Epic who either has gotten very lucky while being very silent, or hasn't been trying to stop kills.

(Four, TJ directly said no to me being able to give someone the ability to talk to the dead, but I don't think that means much. I haven't gone through every single role claim yet.)

goddamit jim

[Kasimir he/him]

3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

TBH I thought it was you which is actually hella comforting, ty for the confirmation.

@Illwei are you a Regular too????????? Why the heck are you giving me any flack???????

ED1T:

Likelihood of Team Village having both Knighthawk Scientist and Gifter Epic...

Evaluating...

Evaluating...

@Kasimir was Mat right???

Mat right on? It being a role that makes more sense Village side?

(Sorry guys. Busy today so I haven't the bandwidth. Drowning in cases. Will try to get back on later, will be disappointed if y'all don't add at least three pages of analysis on my return.)

[Amanuensis he/him]

9 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Mat right on? It being a role that makes more sense Village side?

(Sorry guys. Busy today so I haven't the bandwidth. Drowning in cases. Will try to get back on later, will be disappointed if y'all don't add at least three pages of analysis on my return.)

I mean, were we right about Mat being an elim.

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

I mean, were we right about Mat being an elim.

I am legit torn. The Epic-Regular ratio is kayana...But making Epics forgo actions? Odd.

[Amanuensis he/him]

9 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I am legit torn. The Epic-Regular ratio is kayana...But making Epics forgo actions? Odd.

Exactly. And Archer's fake role claim fits Mat's very real role in how weird and specific and limited it is. That, plus him immediately proclaiming this game was an item game on Mat's flip when that was not my impression at all, even before all the role claims.

It really seems to me E!Mat and E!Archer were a team. That the elims are meant to be getting benefits from the dead Village epics they successfully killed.

It also fits the V!Stick narrative, and that people voting her D1 were elims trying to spare Mat.

ED1T:

@Kasimir I think Archer dug himself in a hole on D2 with that fake @ Mat stuff, and he has no choice but to double down this turn after the kayana info we've gotten. No one could have anticipated a mass role claim. I highly doubt the elims did.

Edited February 16, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Ashbringer he/him]

4 minutes ago, Illwei said:

goddamit jim

... well, we know you didn't try and kill anyone C2, I guess...

Just because I'm not as aggressive as Aman doesn't mean I trust you 

 

Idk about V!Me + V!Mat. Depends on Mat's specifics, and mine. I don't think I can grant the one-use abilities, assuming they exist. (TJ's said PAFO to some things and no to others.) E!Mat makes some sense, but not with E!Reviver!Archer...

Also, important note: I don't know if I'm redirected. Which is a potential issue, but one that I'd rather bring up now than discover it painfully later.

[Amanuensis he/him]

15 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

E!Reviver!Archer

Again, if we assume E!Archer, we must also assume everything he says about his role is a lie. Being on a team with Mat = knowing there were Village Epics from the start, thus enabling his claim.

I trust you more than I trusted Mat D1, and I'd really love that tunnel to not have been for nothing.

Edited February 16, 2022 by Amanuensis

[|TJ| he/him]

VC:

Archer (10): Kasimir, Araris Valerian, Ashbringer, Tani, Devotary of Spontaneity, _Stick_, JNV, Amanuensis, Thaidakar the Ghostblood, Orlok Tsubodai
Amanuensis (2): Illwei, Archer

Confirming that you will get alignment flips on death in this game. 

[---]

3 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Just because I'm not as aggressive as Aman doesn't mean I trust you 

By aggressive do you mean open with elaborating and explaining your suspicions?

Why would a flipped non epic be a "corrupted epic" guys are you hearing yourselves

[Amanuensis he/him]

9 hours ago, Illwei said:

By aggressive do you mean open with elaborating and explaining your suspicions?

Why would a flipped non epic be a "corrupted epic" guys are you hearing yourselves

Because TJ is a heckin troll.

[---]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

Because TJ is a heckin troll.

I don't buy it.

[Amanuensis he/him]

9 hours ago, Illwei said:

I don't buy it.

That's cool. LAFO.

[Ashbringer he/him]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

Again, if we assume E!Archer, we must also assume everything he says about his role is a lie. Being on a team with Mat = knowing there were Village Epics from the start, thus enabling his claim.

Fair enough. I don't know how much I believe in Archer's claim - Evil Medium is a possibility - but yeah.

1 minute ago, |TJ| said:

VC:

Archer (10): Kasimir, Araris Valerian, Ashbringer, Tani, Devotary of Spontaneity, _Stick_, JNV, Amanuensis, Thaidakar the Ghostblood, Orlok Tsubodai
Amanuensis (2): Illwei, Archer

Confirming that you will get alignment flips on death in this game. 

But wheeeeeeeeeeeen!!!

Wait a minute...

2 minutes ago, Illwei said:

By aggressive do you mean open with elaborating and explaining your suspicions?

Why would a flipped non epic be a "corrupted epic" guys are you hearing yourselves

Idk what I mean. But I have reason to suspect you lying about your role, which has the joint effect of making you suspect for lying and tainting my suspicions from Aman-Illwei interactions. But I also know both E! and V! Illwei does things like this sometimes, and I'll tunnel on it regardless.

Same, idk. But Village Epics exist. I'm one, you're one, someone's got to be telling the truth or the game would be over before it started.