Mid-Range Game 57: Helvegen

[Mat he/him]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

But what if E!Orlok tho think of the plot twist!

Idk how long your nap will be and if you'll be gone past rollover but I feel like you have the right to be warned that my vote is still after all that subject to change. Right now I'm not planning to but you probably know how plans go out the window as the clock ticks closer to EoD

See: Me and Araris D1, me and Bort D3. One went well, one did not. Now I need to tip the scale towards good or bad by choosing pocketed by Aman/not and I dunno but TUN for now.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Like I said, follow your heart. I won't hold it against you.

Wouldn't mind dying so I can stop being confused tbh, but lowkey hoping I'll have to be NK'd instead.

[Mat he/him]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

Like I said, follow your heart. I won't hold it against you.

Wouldn't mind dying so I can stop being confused tbh, but lowkey hoping I'll have to be NK'd instead.

Nah, I'll stay. As much as TJ/TUN doesn't really make sense here, Aman/JNV also doesn't make sense to me anymore. So therefore no team makes sense anymore, and I keep wanting the correct team to just pop in my head and make sense xD But the elims have played well enough so that's not happening. TUN/TJ makes more sense to me, slightly, so here I am.

I haven't considered 1p teams, I realize, but that's because if it's a 1p team the ratio rn isn't one we need to actively worry about. Yet.

[|TJ| he/him]

Okay, now I'm back to paranoiding e!Mat xD

27 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Aman/JNV also doesn't make sense to me anymore

Why not? 

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, |TJ| said:

Okay, now I'm back to paranoiding e!Mat xD

Why not? 

Mhm you go ahead and do that

I went back and backread (backskimmed) the thread again, and JNV and Aman have had multiple thread discussions between just the two of them that I really don't see as being e/e. JNV consistently is solving and giving extremely village vibes, and the reason I initially put them as evil was because I was working off of who could go with e!Aman, but in retrospect I think I was trying too hard. v!JNV makes much more sense, and Aman doesn't really work with anyone as a teammate at this point.

[|TJ| he/him]

Hmmm, that seems fair. I think my current hypothesis of most likely scenario is e!solo!Veteran!Aman, which is why I'm voting there. 

[Mat he/him]

43 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Hmmm, that seems fair. I think my current hypothesis of most likely scenario is e!solo!Veteran!Aman, which is why I'm voting there. 

Certainly possible, yeah, but I do think it's better to focus on the 2p possibility first.

If it is e!Veteran!Aman, we're at 5-1. After today we'll be at 3-1. Next turn with an Aman exe we'll get to 2-1 and then win it there with a 1-0 finish, and that's worse case scenario with no v!Veterans or the 1 survivor as a Veteran. It's certainly possible to still win without RNG in that scenario so I'm good staying on TUN as my most likely 2p elim scenario.

Final words in case I'm the NK, I guess, trust no one  Except maybe Orlok. I'd be wary of anyone who pushes Orlok as the next step if TUN flips green, I think that in a v!TUN scenario Aman is almost always the best next exe. Idk, we're all lost, good luck to everyone  o7

Edited April 4, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[Kasimir he/him]

One hour late, but auto-lock and El are goddesses <3 (Devo, you're amazing too, I just know that our timezones don't work so good  )

Please do not post here; cycle is coming up shortly.

[Kasimir he/him]

Cycle Six: The Hinge of Every Question

There was an art to asking questions.

Locke had been busy asking, even while Helgen turned on itself in a frenzy of death and blood, seeking to root out the Darkfriends among them, even as the Shadow itself seemed to have taken an interest in murdering the residents of Helgen.

Questions, Locke had learned, were the key to unlocking secrets; things people wanted to keep hidden. He had gotten very good at asking the right questions, clerking in Canluun. You looked at your rows of figures and asked questions of your data, and if you asked in just the right way, you found answers.

Or sometimes, even more questions.

It was the search for the answers that drove you, until you discovered that the point wasn’t the answers, but to have questions worth asking in the first place.

Such as why no one, in Helgen, at all, seemed to find Lin Mindrigurin suspicious.

Lin Mindrigurin, as far as Locke’s queries had established, was often regrettably mistaken for the uncrowned king of Malkier, al’Lan Mandragoran. Lin was another one who had grown up in Helgen, served years on the Blightborder, and then seemed content to return to a quiet life in Helgen, where he did what needed doing. Mayor Wilsa, Locke noted, seemed to rely on Lin significantly.

There was a web of connections, spidering through Helgen.

He made each mark on the ledger he was keeping, noted the connections and their direction and their strength.

So many of them ran through Lin Mindrigurin. So many of them, through him, to Mayor Wilsa.

He circled Lin Mindrigurin’s name in dark charcoal and frowned down at the page. No one. Not a single one was asking the right questions.

So it was down to Locke.

In Canluun, he’d made a name for himself, with how eeriely fast he’d tracked down falsified payments and bribes and corruption, simply by making inferences from the data. Simply by reading between the lines of ledgers and agreements and asking the right questions.

Now, Locke was on the hunt once again.

He didn’t intend to fail.

 

 

“Lan,” Rambler spat. “Who else can it be?”

Lin Mindrigurin barely looked up from the sword he was working on. He’d rebound the hilt with leather cord and now was removing the nicks from its edge with a whetstone. “Come on,” he said, reasonably. “I told you Xin was innocent. All of you chose to damn an innocent man to death, and you can’t blame me for your error.”

“You insisted it was Lorum,” Rambler continued. “Almost as though you knew.”

“It’s not the first time someone’s accused me of being right,” Lin said. He continued to scrape at the nicks on the sword. Something, perhaps it was that old veteran’s sense from his years on the Blightborder; perhaps it was something deeper, buried in his bones, told him that his old sword would soon see use again.

There was a fight coming. He could feel it.

Just not right now, if he handled things right.

“If you felt that Xin was of the Shadow, and against, I might add, my explicit advice, then you must take responsibility for your own judgements, Rambler. I definitely take responsibility for mine.”

“You knew,” Rambler said, yet again. He jabbed a finger at Lin, accusingly. “Only a Darkfriend would know.”

“And you think Jóhannsson walks in the Light?” Lin asked, sceptically. “When Jóhannsson was the loudest voice against Buffy? When Jóhannsson insisted that Buffy, Light grant her peace, was committing murders in the dark in Helgen?”

Rambler hesitated.

“Think about it,” Lin said, compellingly. He continued to whet the edge of his blade. “Way I see it, you’re probably of the Light, friend. I can’t see one such as you pursuing the Darkfriends among us with such dedication. And you did find Alain Stern, you and Stieg both. So I feel confident in trusting you. You know Locke?”

Rambler grunted. 

“Locke was especially adamant about Bortington,” Lin said. “Almost as if he knew.”

Rambler stiffened, eyes narrowing as he glared at Lin. “You lie,” he said. “Locke, of all people! Worked out Bortington was a Darkfriend. Accused Bortington every chance he got. You’re getting desperate.”

“Way I see it,” continued Lin, “There are maybe three of us in Helgen I can be sure of. You, me, and Kai. If we want to find the Shadow, we have to work together.”

“Can’t believe I’m listening to you,” Rambler spat. “You lie as easily as you breathe, Darkfriend.”

“Just think about it,” Lin said. The whetstone scraped against old steel. “I’ve fought against the Shadow for a good part of my life, Rambler. Why would I suddenly turn and swear service to the Dark One now?”

His voice dropped, so Rambler had to lean in to hear him.

“The Shadow can be defeated, Rambler. We pushed the Trollocs back enough times on the Blightborder. All will be well, as long as we walk in the Light. As long as we stay strong. As long as we refuse to let suspicion grow in our hearts and turn on each other.”

Rambler hesitated.

“No,” he said, shaking his head. “I’ve had enough from you, Darkfriend.”

He left, slamming the door of Lin’s house behind him.

Lin sat there, in the gathered shadows, scraping the whetstone along the edge of his sword. It was late afternoon, and the shadows grew only longer as the day crept inevitably onwards, giving way to dusk.

Such was the way of all things.

He could, at least, keep his sword sharp. There would be bloody work ahead to be done, if the Light was to prevail.

 

 

Locke strode into the Tree, urgency in every step. Wyden glanced up, frowning in worry. Locke wasn’t the sort to panic unnecessarily, and if Locke was radiating focused worry like the fireplace, then something was very wrong indeed.

“Wyden,” Locke said, crisply. “Have you by any chance seen Lin Mindrigurin?”

A ledger was tucked under his left arm.

Wyden shook his head. “No sight of him today. None of the regulars, either. Heard they were going for a meeting with the mayor. Everyone’s got Darkfriends on the mind, it seems.”

Locke’s frown deepened.

“What’s wrong?” Wyden wanted to know.

Locke pulled out an empty chair and sat down. “I,” he said, with a tired finality, “Have been a great fool.”

Wyden said, “I think most of us have been, at some point or other in our lives.”

“Perhaps,” said Locke. “But I spent too much time asking questions, and far too little time asking about when the right time to pursue those questions was.”

Wyden looked at him. He sat down at the same table, pulling out the chair opposite Locke. “I don’t understand,” he ventured.

“Lin Mindrigurin,” Locke said. “Is far too involved in these killings. And far too connected to the mayor, who mind, has apparently endorsed most of his activities.”

Wyden’s heart sank.

“No,” he said. Surely it was impossible. Surely—

“I think,” said Locke, “They have some explaining to do.”

Wyden eyed him warily. Remembered what Gaeta and Edler had said about a local Dreadlord. The Dreadlord had been a woman, apparently, because Gaeta could sense what was being done, and because Gaeta could detect what the channeller was doing through the One Power.

A woman. A Dreadlord.

He froze.

The pieces fell together, came together in just the right way to make a damning picture. 

Mayor Wilsa had been mayor of Helgen for a very, very long time.

Sometimes, you just knew.

Locke, talking about how the connections ran to the mayor, how he’d isolated and discovered the careful way Lin Mindrigurin had pushed for each of the killings.

Thorns, tearing through his skin. He thought he heard fell laughter on the wind. 

Gaeta and Edler had talked about going to see the mayor for help with the Dreadlord problem. Of course, if the mayor was the Dreadlord…

“Wyden,” and this was Locke shaking him, dragging him back to reality, and Wyden blinked, forced himself to remember he was in the Tree, gripping the edges of the table, white-knuckled. “What’s wrong?”

“We have to stop them,” he said.

Felt as though the words were coming from someone else, from some other man who hadn’t become a shadow of himself, the wreckage left behind by the Shadow.

Locke frowned. “A former clerk and an innkeeper?”

“Who else is there left?” Wyden asked, tiredly.

Locke regarded him for a long moment. “Very well,” he said, and Wyden thought he heard the same resignation in the other man’s voice. “Light knows we can’t let Lin murder them all. And I’ve always wanted to see if I could out-argue Lin when he’s working a room…I suppose if he kills us all, at least it will be fun.”

Wyden pinched the bridge of his nose and sighed. 

Light help them all.

 

 

Kai ran.

You were not meant for this world, Kaiya.

The words, like damnation.

You know what to do.

Sometimes, you did terrible, cruel things, and you hoped that a little Light would come from them. Or you hoped that the Light would not judge you too harshly, because you were afraid, and because people who are frightened, people who are fallible, and people who are all too human can do terrible, terrible things indeed.

A single, small crystal vial. A single choice.

There is a piece of the Shadow in each and every one of us. Festering within us.

And now Kai ran and kept on running, and perhaps one day, they wouldn’t have to run, perhaps one day the past wouldn’t reach out and wrap tenebrous arms around their heart, damning them and accusing them at once.

Kai ran.

There was a meeting, and it wouldn’t do to be late, even though they were, in fact, already quite late.

They turned the corner and jerked to an abrupt halt.

There was a smouldering hole in the earth, and the Cairhien scholar, Gaeta, was dead; badly blackened and burned, smoke still rising from her corpse.

There was a terrible, terrible noise.

A sound like a scream.

A sword swept through them.

Kai was dead before they even got to see who had killed them.

Edler, grief-stricken, still screaming, perhaps forever screaming, snapped his blade out in a sharp, instinctive Lotus Closes Its Blossom and ran on.

 

 

Wyden knelt by the chest in the small attic room. 

He swallowed hard. It was like there was a handful of broken glass in his throat and no matter what, breathing or trying to talk hurt. 

This was going to hurt, one way or another. He drew in a deep, shaky breath and undid the clasps on the chest, and then unlocked it. Odds and ends; all the detritus from a past life. There was an oddly-shaped bundle of wool, which he slowly unrolled to reveal a sword. He’d hid it there and wanted to forget about it, because memory was a knife; memory was a butcher who led you down a path of thorns to the slaughter.

The wrappings on the hilt disguised the distinctive mark. Wyden’d always wanted it that way. He’d felt so proud, the day he’d earned it. Commander Bralor’d been, too. Bralor’d been as a father to him, he’d bragged about it to the entire garrison.

He drew the sword, shakily. Should’ve taken an oilcloth to it, or a whetstone, but blades like this remained as sharp and true as the day they’d been forged. Worth a king’s ransom, and here he was hiding it and everything in a small attic in a small village that no one remembered in the Kandori hinterlands.

Sometimes you ran to the ends of the world and you found that your pain was still there, waiting for you.

What was the use? What good was steel or a swordsman’s skill against the One Power? 

He shut his eyes desperately and tried to think of the forms, tried to think of the tasks that needed doing, tried to think of anything except the damnfool thing he was maybe going to do, and that would probably get him killed.

Tried not to think of how Gamen had died, thorns sliding under his skin, wrapping about his throat. Maybe Wyden shouldn’t have lived.

He should have died for them. Should have.

But he’d broken, hard. 

The sword blade flashed, bright, perfect. He danced the forms; one after another, his body remembering what the mind did not. The Moon Rises Over The Lakes. Rain In High Wind. Striking the Spark. Shake Dew From The Branch.

He danced the forms, sword moving from one to the next, every cut and thrust perfect, unhurried, done just right, the way they were supposed to be.

Each form was whole, and perfect; everything that Wyden no longer was, and no longer could be.

But it was a kind of healing. He hadn’t realised how much he’d needed this, how much learning the sword had been a sort of comfort to him. They’d commented on how he’d been a fast learner, back at the garrison. Learning the forms had been as though he was coming home; as though his body was simply remembering what it already knew. He’d found solace in swordplay, and returning to the forms now, even with so much rust he could barely find his former edge, brought to him an echo of peace in the tumult of his own mind.

With Folding the Fan, he sheathed the sword, without even looking at the scabbard. 

He was breathing more heavily than he’d have liked. But he was on his feet, and ready to fight. Ready to die, maybe. 

Thorns sliding under his skin, wrapping around his wrists.

What good was steel against the One Power? But what else could he do?

Wyden belted on his sword.

You surrender when you’re dead, Edler had said. He didn’t know enough, but his heart was hammering in his chest. Dreadlord, Edler had said, and the idea of facing the one behind Gamen’s death, the woman unleashing the Embrace of Pain within Helgen…it terrified him.

But what else could he do?

Sometimes, you had to try. To win back even the smallest fragment of your soul. To find, however you could, however blindly in the shadows, a way to be good again.

A way back to the Light.

 

 

Mayor Wilsa walked into the meeting room.

For some reason, she brought with her the faintest hint of smoke, the sickly-sweet scent of charred flesh. Lorum Ipsum found himself gagging; he did his best to suppress the sound.

“The Shadow still walks among us,” she said. “Someone killed Daian.”

Light shelter him, Lorum Ipsum thought. And the last embrace of the mother welcome him home. It was the old saying, the one they said in Shienar proper, but in some parts of Kandor as well. 

“Lin did it,” Rambler spat.

“I’m certain it’s Jóhannsson,” Lin replied. “Or possibly Locke.” He hesitated. “Perhaps even you, Rambler.”

“I found Stern,” Rambler retorted. “You said it yourself. I’ve only worked for the Light.”

“Have you?” Lin asked.

“Of course,” Rambler spluttered. “I’ve only searched for Darkfriends!”

“As I was saying,” Lin said, and now Lorum noticed he was wearing a battered old sword at his side again, “I have every confidence that Kai walks in the Light. If I had to speculate, then Rambler is a Darkfriend. Far, far too quick to accuse, and he abused my trust. If not Rambler, then Jóhannsson or Lorum.”

Except that was a lie.

“You lie,” Lorum accused. “I’ve had no dealings with the Shadow. In fact, I do wonder at you, Lan. For all that they speak of your courage and your war on the Shadow, all I’ve seen is you twisting the words of good, honest villagers to get them killed!”

“Such accusations,” Lin said, shaking his head sadly. “I’ve fought the Shadow, Lorum. For years. And all you can do is to accused me of honeyed words and a forked tongue? All you can do is to try to accuse me in the hopes it will spare you? At least have the dignity to look death in the eye, friend.”

The arguments flew to and fro, and the surviving villagers of Helgen shouted accusations at each other.

But then the others were staring at him, and then Lorum Ipsum realised to his growing horror that they had turned on him, that they were suspecting him, and he didn’t even know why.

“Execute him,” Mayor Wilsa ordered.

“I know my duty,” Lin Mindrigurin said.

The sword swept out, in a clean, gleaming arc.

Blood splattered on the walls of the meeting room, and on those gathered there.

But it was not over.

It never was.

 

 

Locke was waiting, impatiently, in the common room of the Tree. He stood up as soon as he saw Wyden return with the sword.

“Let’s go, then. Before it’s too late.”

“Light grant that,” Wyden said. Meant every single word.

They ran.

 

 

 

The Unknown Novel/Lorum Ipsum was executed! He was a Villager!

JNV/Kai was killed! They were a Villager!

Quote

TUN (3): Mat, Aman, JNV
Aman (2): TJ, TUN

The cycle has begun, and will end on 7th April, 0100hrs SGT (GMT+8)! 

Please be reminded not to post in this thread until I've reserved the second post for the player list and rule clarifications, thank you!

Please be aware that a player in this game may be replaced by a pinch-hitter. I am working to resolve the situation as soon as possible so everyone can have clarity beneath the Light. Thank you.

Praise the Light!

Edited April 6, 2022 by Kasimir

[Kasimir he/him]

Rule Clarifications:

Spoiler

why does this even exist at this point

Player List:

Spoiler

1. Thaidakar the Ghostblood - Daian Villager
2. The Unknown Novel - Lorum Ipsum, actually Lorumis Ipsimir Villager
3. xinoehp512 - Xin Village Elder
4. @Matrim's Dice - Rambler, disturbed fellow
5. @Orlok Tsubodai - Locke
6. @Amanuensis - Lin Mindrigurin, elderly veteran sometimes mistaken for Lan
7. Araris Valerian - Alain Stern, hardy woodsman Darkfriend Elder
8. Illwei - Wei Villager
9. Archer - Buffy, who has an intense fear of fangs Villager
10. JNV - Kai Villager
11. StrikerEZ - Eaton Strikk, a guy with a headache and worryingly murderous tendencies Villager
12. _Stick_ - Stieg Village Elder
13. Bort - Bortington the Blind Darkfriend
14. @|TJ| - Jóhannsson, local composer

 

[Mat he/him]

Amanuensis

The end. Right?

Edit:

2-2 or 3-1 today. Either way we need to exe right today.
Praying we have a Veteran but I'm kind of doubting that at this point.

Edited April 4, 2022 by Matrim's Dice
Sigh

[|TJ| he/him]

Grrrrrr, Mattyyy >> 

I'm gonna vote here and not check this thread for the next 48 hours for my mental health >> Amanuensis

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

I keep neglecting this but Please PM me or ping me about any concerns or problems.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Amanuensis

GG TJ and/or Orlok o7

Edited April 4, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

Amanuensis

GG TJ and/or Orlok o7

No, that’s not how you play this >>

Try to convince me. Or, that’s a poor choice of words, who/which is it, why? 

[Amanuensis he/him]

6 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

No, that’s not how you play this >>

Try to convince me. Or, that’s a poor choice of words, who/which is it, why? 

Bro it could be both or it could only be one and I don't know how to tell the difference anymore

Whoever it is killed JNV who would have never voted me in this scenario so like

Someone is the evil mastermind and I don't have the energy right now to figure it out

I want to say TJ because I don't know how much Orlok was paying attention to kill JNV of all players

But if it's TJ/Orlok they are just going to vote together and the game comes to RNG anyway so =/

I'd have preferred v!Orlok dying to the filter and knowing I did my best yesterday but should have gone TJ over TUN, even if we lost, to this

And it very well could be E!Orlok which means we could have either won or voted TJ today since I've been wanting to vote Orlok since C3

I just don't know what to say anymore than GG
 

ED1T:

@Kasimir TJ This is my final vote, not changing it, nope.

I was doing some backreading @Matrim's Dice and I found this gem of mine

On 3/29/2022 at 6:04 PM, Amanuensis said:

Tbh I really don't know if TJ is elim after that NK and I was kinda leaning Town for him anyway. I actually thought Archer was the elim of the pair until now and I would have voted for him over Striker had I been able to get online yesterday 

Like, I'm waiting to see how TJ enters because healthy paranoia or whatever, but from what I've seen Archer and TJ have been going at it most of the game and it's so incredibly weird for TJ to kill Archer now when Archer was so close to getting voted out anyway. I'm having a lot of trouble grasping the elims path to victory, but if I had to guess, this was intended to frame TJ rather than exonerate him. Like, if TJ is elim, what's his game plan going into today after killing his tunnel? He would basically be forcing himself to start from the ground up and I don't get it? Unless he wanted to go back on Stick I guess, but what's the likelihood of anyone really joining him there? It's just so weird

Tbh I also felt Xino has been radiating Towny energy this game. I also feel like JNV is Town for similar feelz reasons, though I am slightly afraid he pocketed me yesterday

Idk mostly I'm just super lost but I'm HOPING PEOPLE WILL FIX THAT BY PMING ME

Anyway yeah that my stream of conscious rn hope everyone is well

Retrospect is 20/20 lmao

Idk why I bother with NK Analysis when I just get bogged down by the IKYKs

Gave TJ way too much of a pass when it was just an Archer suspected TJ and Bort fear kill, remove from game and hope for best

Orlok went into that exact same turn swinging for Bort when he could have gone after TJ, plus Orlok didn't even mention the NK as a point against Bort (Stick and I talked about this but I forgot, point in Orlok's favor) which means Orlok was just very likely on Bort's case from C2 and went inactive before he could follow the train of logic onto TJ

So yeah, either it's TJ/Orlok or just TJ. I refuse to believe anything else.

TJ TJ TJ TJ TJ TJ TJ TJ TJ TJ TJ TJ TJ TJ TJ TJ TJ 

Edited April 5, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Mat he/him]

Thinking about the kill- that alone suggests e!TJ.

• Why would Aman kill his biggest supporter and leave me alive? e!Aman kills me and has JNV kill TJ, whom JNV already suspected.
• TJ, on the other hand, knows that I’ve been in a tunnel on Aman for the whole game and can use that in today’s exe. He also can’t really kill anyone else- if TJ kills me, he won’t be able to convince JNV to vote Aman. If he kills Aman then he’d have to get either me or JNV to vote the other when we resolved at the end of last cycle to a mutual village read. Orlok’s a wild card, plus the chance of being TJ’s teammate (which I don’t really believe). So JNV is the optimal e!TJ kill along with TJ being like the only one who would kill JNV

TJ

I still don’t really elim read TJ. I don’t elim read anybody. TJ simply makes the most sense to me at this current state- Aman’s done enough to prove himself to even my tunneled eyes. If it’s Aman, he deserves to win just as much as if it’s TJ or Orlok.

[Orlok Tsubodai he/him]

Introduction:

Firstly, I want to apologise again for not being here for the last two cycles. I think this is probably too late, but a very large part of me wants to atone for my absence. If I wasn't here for the cycles, I want to be able to say that I've done the work I would have done had I been present. I'm doing this for me, more than for anyone else.

I'm starting this post without having properly read the end of cycle three, or much at all of cycles four and five. My starting point here is the following:

Distribution:

On distribution, I assign a very low credence to a three member, all regular elim team. On game mechanics alone, the eliminators were going to lose a member. I am taking as a prior that a vanilla three elim team is extremely unlikely. An obvious consequence of this is that we are now at either 2v2, or 3vV1.

If we have no village veterans, then a 2v2 gives us only a 25% chance of winning. The eliminators will hammer today, for a 50% chance of winning this cycle, and if unsuccessful, a further 50% chance of winning next cycle. If we're 3vV1, then a correct lynch today repeated tomorrow is a village victory - we go 2v1 tomorrow, and win C7. A village veteran reduces the probability of an eliminator victory in a 1R1Vv2 world. If the hammer is on the regular villager, then the eliminators have a 50% chance of winning outright this cycle (as they can outvote the veteran C7), but lose C7 if unsuccessful (2v1). If the hammer is on the veteran villager, then the kill is on the regular villager, and the eliminators have a 50% chance of victory this cycle, and if unsuccessful a 50% chance of victory C7 (1Vv1). Interesting, unintuitive conclusion here that if we have 1R1Vv2R, the eliminators ought to hammer the Veteran. In a 2R1Vv1V world, or even a 1R2Vv1V world, nothing changes from a 3Rv1V world - a correct lynch this cycle is game winning. Irrelevantly, given this conclusion, I think a 3Rv1V world is more likely than vilager veterans if there's an e!Veteran - I think an eliminator team guaranteed to go to two voting players is fairly weak, and is therefore less likely to face a village veteran than a 4 player starting elim team. I think that the fact that we haven't seen a village veteran yet is moderately evidence that we have no village veterans. I could probably prove this with probability theory (but am not going to unless I get very bored tomorrow) - the likelihood of not encountering one, across three lynched villagers and five killed villagers, is intuitively very low. Given the (admittedly unproven) lower likelihood of a village veteran, we can, through Bayesian updating, in turn increase (marginally) our belief in a 3v1 world, as no village veterans is more likely there than in a 2v2 world.

I don't know that any of the above is useful except as a thought exercise - but in conclusion, we're either at 2v2 in which case we have a 25% chance of winning, or are in a 3v1V world, which I think is slightly more likely, in which case a correct lynch today is game winning.

Alignment priors:

Matrim - as a starting point, I think Matrim is nearly confirmed village. My recollection is that my belief in this derives from a villager slip D1, and from his participation in the Araris lynch.

TJ - I have/had no real read on TJ - I couldn't tell you anything about his posts, except that he suspected (and was suspected by?) Archer.

Aman - Very limited recollection of Aman's C2 posts, except that he claimed not to have read C1 before engaging in C2.

I was going to just go from C3 onwards, but writing the above tells me I really do need to reread C1 and C2 as well. Fundamentally, need to freshly evaluate TJ and Aman, but any evaluation on Matrim is a re-evaluation from an existing strong v!Matrim credence.

---

---

Cycle Summaries:

Aiming here to summate the relevant posts from each cycle, and the cycle as a whole.

Cycle One:

1) Matrim opens the game suggesting an early fang use.
2) TJ is opposed to a D1 fang, as he feels there is more to gain from a fang done once connections exist to analyse.
3) Matrim suggests waiting until two eliminators are dead to use the fang.
4) TJ believes in a four elim team, and from concludes that using the fang C2 is optimal. TJ corrects Matrim's misunderstanding of the fang.
5) Stick questions wording of TJ's post.
6) TJ continues to focus on benefits of elim connections from a delayed fang.
7) Matrim argues for a D1 fang, on the grounds that it is wasted if we lynch an eliminator D1. (Kas swiftly enlightens us with the OOA).
8) TJ votes on Stick for nitpicking wording.
9) Bort proposes no D1 lynch, and a fang instead.
10) Araris votes on Matrim, for his views on when the fang should be used.
11) Archer suggests the Fang will only hurt the eliminators if lynch pressure forces them to use it on a player they were not planning to be fanged, then votes on Bort for his no lynch proposal.
12) Matrim argues that Bort was not proposing a no lynch C1, as the lynch comes before the fang in the OOA, and calls Archer's vote on Bort weird.
13) Striker votes on Bort.
14) Bort updates his view, arguing now for a C1 fang, and poke votes on Aman.
15) TJ argues a four elim team, and believes Archer's analysis includes too much elim strategising. He reiterates his argument that Stick's question in her first post looked performative.
16) Mat places Archer, Illwei, Striker, Orlok, Bort, TJ, and JNV in his "Good Bucket", and Thaid, Xino, Stick, and Araris in his "Bad Bucket", before voting on Thaidakar. Bort is v! read because Matrim sympathises with his takes, believes Bort is trying to figure things out, and is handling the votes on him well. Araris is e! read because he voted on Matrim without an explanation.
17) Matrim suggests Thaidakar is avoiding the thread, and that he gets bad vibes from their PM.
18) TJ continues to suspect Stick for her nitpicking, and her defence of it. TJ reads Matrim, Bort, and Orlok as village, Striker, JNV, Araris and Illwei as null, and Stick, Xino, Archer, and Thaidakar as evil.
19) Araris moves his vote from Matrim to Striker.
20) Matrim pushes Araris on his stance on using the Fang.
21) Archer does not like Bort's move from Matrim to Striker.
22) Aman thought the game started 24 hours into the cycle, and tongue-in-cheek claims Elder and Veteran.
23) Matrim thinks Thaidakar's opinions in PMs are odd, and doesn't think Stick should die C1.
24) Striker votes on Araris.
25) Matrim notes Araris' reason for the switch makes even less sense, as he also had more in his good pile than Xino.
26) Araris missed Matrim's list, raises being e/e with Striker or Matrim as the only reason why he'd have to reach to vote there.
27) Bort moves from Aman to Thaidakar in defence of Stick.
28) Araris votes on Stick, and notes he is not a fan of voting alongside Matrim.
29) TJ refuses to move from Stick onto Thaidakar, as his Stick vote is reasoned, and his TJ read is gut.
30) Matrim says he'd be fine voting on Araris, gives village points to TJ for not moving to Thaidakar, and is nervous as to people joining him on Thaidakar given his private reasoning for the vote.
31) Stick votes on Araris.
32) Archer votes on Araris.
33) Matrim votes on Araris.
34) TJ feels continues to feel iffy about Archer from his thought process on how the eliminators might suffer from the fang. He thinks that if there's a bus, it's on Araris. Maintains his vote on Stick.

Overall summary of C1:

Initial discussion of the use of the fang. Voting relatively fluid, consolidation at points on Stick and Thaid, late train on Araris.

C1 conclusions:

On re-evaluation feeling very safe in my strong v!read of Matrim. I've already factored #3, and Matrim's vote on Araris into my priors, and so they don't increase my credence of v!Matrim, and I see no reason to weaken how strongly I weight them. Matrim does defend Bort in #16, in what is a very charitable manner, given the posts themselves.

TJ spends a lot of the cycle focused on one line of one of Stick's posts, in what can only be described as a pretty severe tunnel. His thoughts on the use of the fang feel genuine, and he reevaluates on it.

Aman makes no game-relevant posts.

Notes:

Bort poke votes Aman
Araris pushes e!Matrim

Cycle Two:

1) Matrim wonders how shared the opposition to an early fang was amongst the eliminators, and is suspicious that Thaidakar held that view because Araris held it.
2) Bort asks what caused the Araris "bus".
3) Matrim wonders whether Bort's wording was an elim slip.
4) Archer thinks Araris was the designated fang sacrifice. He thinks the vote pattern is indicative of v!Stick, but gets e!vibes from TJ not moving after Araris' vote.
5) Matrim voted to use the fang, and challenges Archer's assumption that Araris was the designated fang target.
6) Archer says he discussed veterans in his PM with Araris, and therefore that the elims were considering veterans.
7) Aman says he's not backreading D1, and would rather interact with players in real time. He asks for players' accounts of D1, and congratulates the village on the elim flip.
8) Matrim expresses suspicion of Thaidakar for mirroring Araris' opinion and Araris moving the lynch from Thaidakar, but holds off on voting pending a full vote analysis.
9) Aman still hasn't read C1. He expresses confusion about Matrim prodding Bort. He assesses Stick as Araris' preferred mislynch. Aman expresses that he'd have liked a D3 fang, to get the most out of the mechanic from a game-solving perspective. He comments on Archer's belief that Araris was the fang target, and says if he was evil, he'd advocate being the fang target himself.
10) JNV responds to many of Aman's questions about C1.
11) Aman still hasn't read C1. Aman believes the Araris lynch wasn't necessarily a bus, and is apprehensive about anyone concuding that. Aman v!reads Orlok for retracting on Stick, rather than moving onto Araris. Aman commits to reading C1.
12) Archer reads Thaidakar as disconnected, not evil, and votes on TJ for not moving his vote during the end of D1.
13) Matrim responds to Aman's questions about Araris/Striker/Matrim. Matrim thinks if there was a bus, it most likely came from Striker. Matrim says his prod of Bort was a joke, and replies to other questions from Aman.
14) TJ asks why everyone is assuming Araris/Stick was v/e.
15) Matrim attempts a vote analysis of D1. He notes TJ's vote on Stick as shaky (although says he agreed with it at the time), Araris' vote on him, and Thaidakar's vote on TJ, which he questions as distancing. Matrim pushes Thaidakar's movement to Stick as further distancing from TJ. MAtrim concludes Araris' vote on Striker means v!Striker. Reevaluates, and believes the Araris train was pure. Clears Stick for her move to Araris. Clears Archer. Gives Orlok village points for unvoting Stick, notes this was critical to Araris lynch. Doesn't agree with Archer that TJ suspicious for not doing anything at the EoD. Votes on TJ for his Stick vote.
15) Bort claims to be confused about the meaning of the phrase "Bus".
16) Stick voted on Araris as she saw others were suspicious of him, and his poke vote on Matrim switching to Striker being atypical.
17) Matrim explains bus/bandwagon distinction to Bort.
18) JNV argues Stick's question that triggered TJ's vote didn't feel performative.
19) Orlok posts a long series of butchered quotes, asks questions, votes on Bort.
20) Matrim replies to Orlok, says his suspicion of Thaidakar wasn't from subverting expectations about his view on the fang, but the tone and way he argued it. Matrim now leaning towards disengaged v!Thaidakar. Thinks only one of Thaidakar/TJ evil, leaning TJ.
21) Bort attacks Archer, suggests Archer is twisting everything Bort said to the extreme.
22) TJ responds to Archer's vote. Argues he is static in playstyle on D1 voting, and that he left his vote on Stick because if he finds someone suspicious D1 it will take a lot to make him change his vote. Didn't vote on Araris because he had no memory of Araris' posts or the reasons for voting for him. Further explains why he was suspicious of Stick's C1 question. Notes Matrim's post voting on TJ was predicated on ties/interactions with Thaidakar. Votes on Archer for removing all Araris voters from elim pool, and for feeling malicious all game. Claims v!Elder.
23) Matrim moves his vote from TJ to Striker, because he likes TJ's exlanation for his static Stick vote, and TJ "sticking to [his] guns" even is he is "baffled by those guns". Is side eyeing TJ for voting on Archer.
24) TJ is deferring thinking about Striker until tomorrow. Striker is on his e! list from reads from other players.
25) Matrim considers moving back to TJ following PoE from JNV.
26) Striker votes on Archer.
27) Bort votes on Archer. v!reads Stick, Thaidakar, Matrim, JNV, TJ, Orlok. Is suspicious of Archer, wants to hear more from TUN and Aman. Thinks Archer and TUN, Striker are evil, suspects Striker least.
28) Xinoehp votes on TJ in preference over lynching Archer.
29) Matrim asks Archer voters why they're voting for Archer over Striker, as if it's a belief in a bus of Araris, Striker makes much more sense as the busser.
30) Bort argues Archer was twisting everything he said.
31) Matrim notes in response to Stick questioning v!Orlok that Orlok's retraction took the Araris/Stick trains from tied to Araris leading.
32) Stick raises possibility of Orlok retracting on Stick as bussing Araris.
33) TJ agrees with Stick that Orlok retracting could be bussing. Places Bort and maybe JNV as villagers, ?? Thaid, TUN, Matrim, Stick, Orlok in paranoia tier, Archer, Striker, Xino as evil.
34) Matrim challenges Stick on suspicion of Orlok, says speculation is of an accidental, not planned bus, with Striker not having room to retract.
35) TJ says if anyone moves to Striker, he'll move with them.

Overall summary of C2:

Votes split between TJ, Archer, Striker. Archer/TJ very opposed.

C2 notes/thoughts:

Interactions before Aman had read C1 with Matrim feel very natural - so decreasing the likelihood of e/e Aman/Matrim.
TJ's questioning of the clearing of Stick is odd - reading the end of C1 the Araris train was instigated by Stick, and her posts read as very natural.
#15 Matrim is indirectly pushing e!TJ through arguing Thaidakar was distancing from TJ. Possible distancing himself from TJ, but I think this is unlikely. Suspicion of TJ in this manner reduces my credence in a potential e/e Matrim/TJ world.
Consequence of this is a further reduction in likelihood of Matrim being evil - if not e/e with Aman or TJ, then not elim in a 2v2 world (allowing us to reduce the overall likelihood of e!Matrim). Matrim's vote on TJ for Stick vote reasonable, further reduces e/e Matrim/TJ.
Continued friendly Matrim/Bort interactions.
Not sure how Matrim progresses from #15 - distancing TJ/Thaidakar to #20 v/e Thaidakar
#22 - dislike reasoning for leaving vote on Stick. Mild v! from giving reason bluntly. Can empathise with reason for not voting on Araris - felt that way myself about TJ.
#27 is odd. Fundamentally two of Bort's three elim reads are on players with very little to analyse. Increases my assessed probability of Bort/Aman distancing.
#33 from TJ notable for Bort being his only firm v!read. Derived solely from e!Archer belief?

C2 conclusions:

Matrim - unlikely e/e with Aman or TJ. Nothing major to swing my read in either direction. Interaction with Bort.

TJ - Moderately strong village feel from how TJ is making his arguments. Very much do not like conclusions - v!read of Bort in #33 is notable, as is suspicion of Archer. 

Aman - strongly dislike not reading C1. Possible as a genuine style change, but very, very off in a cycle in which an eliminator was just lynched. Mildly increased suspicion of Bort/Aman distancing.

Cycle Three:

1) Stick suggests that Archer was a weird kill, as he was up for the lynch until the end of the cycle. Believes an elim therefore had to have submitted the kill in the last two minutes of the cycle. Notes Archer had said Orlok would vote with him on Striker in group PM.
2) Matrim relaxes v!Orlok read on Stick's argument. Is firm on v!Stick. Wants to lynch from Xino, Bort, TJ, Orlok.
3) Stick notes Bort and TJ both also online at the end of the cycle. Asks why people are v! reading JNV
4) Matrim suggests lynching through Bort, TJ, Orlok given online at end of cycle. Is tone reading JNV.
5) Stick votes on Orlok, believing Orlok the only one not in the group PM who knew Archer would be safe from the lynch.
6) Orlok votes on Bort
7) Matrim votes on Orlok, believes Bort case feels manufactured.
8) Aman asks for tl;dr on C2. Votes on Orlok for "what has already been said", and not responding to Stick's vote. Thinks v!Orlok would have PMd Aman, suggests Orlok did not to avoid Aman reading his alignment in an extended PM.
9) Aman doesn't think TJ is elim after Archer NK, was leaning town on him. Thought Archer was the elim of the pair, would have voted for him had he been able to get on. Thinks Kill might have been intended to frame TJ.
10) TJ thinks Archer's kill was to show more green on Araris' train. Asks Matrim why he dismisses e!Stick so easily. Asks Stick what the advantage is for Orlok of killing Archer, suggests Matrim or Stick have higher motive to do so. Thinks Matrim's post voting on Orlok feels like a defence of Bort. Votes on Matrim.
11) Aman says he might be misremembering C1, but on first read it didn't feel like a bus. Had forgotten Orlok's retraction on Stick. Thinks vote on Bort felt pre-planned. Stick and Matrim voting on Orlok felt good because it validated his feelings on Orlok. Concerned about Mat's post reading as a defence of Bort, as not town-reading Bort beyond suspicion of Orlok. Is concerned no one hs defended Orlok except TJ, suggests Orlok/TJ e/e.
12) Stick notes TJ was suspicious of Orlok in C2 but is now backing out of it.
13) Bort votes on Orlok.
14) Xinoehp votes on TJ, claims village elder.
15) TJ says backing out on Orok because of three back to back votes on Orlok, two from players he suspects. Says his own read progression has been flip-flopping all game. Asks Xinoehp why he suspects TJ.
16) Matrim wasn't dismissing e!Stick, is paranoid of her. Is trying to work out the end of D1. Doesn't think e!Stick works without e!Orlok or vice versa, but Orlok/Stick not e/e based on this turn. Doesn't like Bort's vote on Orlok, thinks Bort misrepresented what Orlok said. Getting a bad gut from Aman. Retracts from Orlok, leaning Aman, Bort or TJ.
17) TJ asks Stick why her argument why she wouldn't kill Archer doesn't apply to Orlok.
18) Aman is happy to vote for either Orlok or Bort, is leaning town on Matrim and TJ. Asks Orlok, Bort, TJ, Xino who they suspect other than who they're voting for.
19) Stick retracts Orlok, moves to Bort.
20) Stick retracts Bort, moves to Orlok.
21) Aman reads Stick and Matrim as top tier of trust, JNV, Xino, TJ below, Orlok, Bort lowest. Doesn't believe Araris was bussed, so won't doubt Stick/Matrim until LyLo. JNV, Xino, TJ town for microreads. Is trying to figure out which of Orlok/Bort is elim. Suggests possible e/e.
22) Bort also suspicious of Thaidakar, JNV, or Xino, or Aman or TUN.
23) Aman asks Bort to explain his reads on JNV and Xino.
24) Matrim moves his vote to Bort.
25) Aman asks Matrim for a tiered readslist.
26) Matrim reads Thaid/JNV as top trusts, Stick next, then Xino/TJ, then Aman, then Orlok/Bort.
27) TJ would vote for Bort or Xino next after Matrim.
28) Matrim considering Aman/Xino, would switch there if anyone else would.
29) Stick 90% certain the elims have to be Bort/TUN, retracts on Orlok, votes on Bort. If fourth, TJ.
30) Matrim retracts on Bort, votes on Aman.
31) TJ asks Matrim why Aman, and what the case on him is.
32) Matrim presents case on Aman. Gut, solving approach feels like Hyena, doesn't like how he's pushing Bort and Orlok, or how opinions manifested. Feels Aman's progression on TJ in their PM is odd. Thinks Archer kill explicable if submitted at the beginning not the end of the cycle. Aman assuming a 3 elim team. Ultimately gut.
33) TJ retracts on Matrim, votes on Xino. Wants to lynch Xino over Bort, but Bort over Orlok.
34) Matrim thinks Xino the next step if Aman flips elim.

C3 thoughts/notes:

Dislike Matrim's level of conviction in Stick's hypothesis of the Archer kill being placed last minute. TJ/Bort were both under pressure from Archer C2 - last minute kill not the only reachable conclusion.
#9 Hackles raised by Aman suggesting he'd have voted on NK target. Reads as saying something sus for v!cred, knowing it would be seen as suspicious. No explanation as to why he'd have voted for Archer over Striker. To vote Archer over Striker, town reading TJ suggests Aman did think C1 was a bus - yet in C2#11, Aman says he'd be suspicious of anyone arguing that. Aman didn't post after that in C2 - so where in C2 did he reevaluate this view? Strong suspicion that this post contains a view formed after Archer's death for cred.
#11, vote on Bort was preplanned - I'd agreed with Archer before the end of C2 that he'd vote with me on Bort, and I wanted to articulate my thoughts. Didn't respond to Stick's vote because I was trying to evaluate it - I had Stick and Matrim firmly in my village core, yet Stick's argument was both bizarre, and difficult to respond to beyond telling her to consider other possibilities.
#15 mild village from acknowledging his own read progression inconsistencies.
#21 Reinforces my suspicion of Aman re #9, suggesting he'd have voted on Archer had he been around D2. If he is (again) convinced Araris wasn't bussed, why would he have voted for Archer? Whole thing feels deeply out of line with genuine thought process.

C3 conclusions:

Aman - strong e!Aman. Predominately driven by him stating he would have voted on Archer, which feels fabricated. It's completely out of line with his stated views (both before and after) on the Araris lynch not being a bus, doesn't appear to have had time to be developed (no Aman posts between Araris lynch not being a bus and Archer's death), and firm view that the post was designed to get village cred for feeling suspicious.

Matrim - Dislike Matrim's early C3, but very much like his progression on Aman, and reevaluation of e!Orlok. Still committed to v!Matrim.

TJ - Less to evaluate. Less likely e/e with Aman from retraction on Matrim after he states Aman case?

---

I'd intended to get through C4 and C5 tonight as well, and will do so before the end of the cycle, but I've been at this now for 6 hours, and it's 5am, so will leave it here and resume tomorrow. I haven't read much at all of either cycle bar the writeups. With the warning that that might cause me to reevaluate, my present view is firmly:

Matrim
TJ
Aman

It would take a lot to shake me from v!Matrim at this point, and a very good explanation from Aman to have me prefer TJ as today's lynch. I think it's moderately more likely that we have one veteran eliminator - Aman, than this being Aman/TJ - but would vote TJ without hesitation over Matrim if it were the three of us.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Okay wow that's a big wall, you weren't kidding

Uhm okay let me unpack this, give me a few minutes...

26 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Firstly, I want to apologise again for not being here for the last two cycles. I think this is probably too late, but a very large part of me wants to atone for my absence. If I wasn't here for the cycles, I want to be able to say that I've done the work I would have done had I been present. I'm doing this for me, more than for anyone else.

Don't worry, seriously, it happens to us all. For what it's worth, I very much appreciate the effort since I doubt e!you would do all this work when you could just have plopped a vote on me or TJ and called it a day. I've pretty much already reached the conclusion you're not a solo elim and that TJ is your only possible partner / needs to go first, but I'll read this under the assumption you're Village.

26 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

TJ - Moderately strong village feel from how TJ is making his arguments. Very much do not like conclusions - v!read of Bort in #33 is notable, as is suspicion of Archer. 

Yeah TJ has given me town-feels but the conclusions and poor voting pattern / pushes is really what settles it for me. Too many side trains, too much spreading paranoia around the Araris voters. I'm basically convinced Archer was a fear kill to protect both Bort and TJ. Sorry I thought you were pulling a QF59 again =\

26 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Aman - strongly dislike not reading C1. Possible as a genuine style change, but very, very off in a cycle in which an eliminator was just lynched. Mildly increased suspicion of Bort/Aman distancing.

For context, I recently pinch hit for a 9 player MU game. I came into D2 knowing nothing and no one and I refused to backread until I had a really good reason. I did the same thing in that game that I did in here and it worked incredibly well - I shook up the game state enough with my pseudo-D1 that I managed to not only vote out an elim that day, but also find his deepwolf partner and get them coinshot that night, securing our victory in a single turn. It felt really good and I wondered if I could do something like that again in this game, but other than Bort (who you already began pushing) I've been following the wrong leads until now.

26 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

#9 Hackles raised by Aman suggesting he'd have voted on NK target. Reads as saying something sus for v!cred, knowing it would be seen as suspicious. No explanation as to why he'd have voted for Archer over Striker. To vote Archer over Striker, town reading TJ suggests Aman did think C1 was a bus - yet in C2#11, Aman says he'd be suspicious of anyone arguing that. Aman didn't post after that in C2 - so where in C2 did he reevaluate this view? Strong suspicion that this post contains a view formed after Archer's death for cred.
#11, vote on Bort was preplanned - I'd agreed with Archer before the end of C2 that he'd vote with me on Bort, and I wanted to articulate my thoughts. Didn't respond to Stick's vote because I was trying to evaluate it - I had Stick and Matrim firmly in my village core, yet Stick's argument was both bizarre, and difficult to respond to beyond telling her to consider other possibilities.
#15 mild village from acknowledging his own read progression inconsistencies.
#21 Reinforces my suspicion of Aman re #9, suggesting he'd have voted on Archer had he been around D2. If he is (again) convinced Araris wasn't bussed, why would he have voted for Archer? Whole thing feels deeply out of line with genuine thought process.

I'm trying to find these posts since I don't think the #s match up but, let me do some digging.

Found it!

Okay C2 I came into the game and I posted this boi boy right here. The most important bits are my response to Archer's post.

Quote

Oh god this is a lot of words and for some reason my brain is having trouble parsing it all, but I'll try anyway.

I could buy that Araris was the designated sacrifice for those reasons, but I hesitate to jump to that conclusion without knowing the rest of his team's composition. Like, if I rolled elim, I'd advocate that I get fanged instead - and that's ignoring the possibility where the elims decide to be more fluid with their fang choice based on village suspicions. So really I think it's too soon to say yes for certain. I'll admit, I'm slightly worried you're trying to control the narrative here, but the fact you voted for him means I'll give you the benefit of the doubt. Let's see what your conclusions end up being 

Hm. Agreed on Stick probably village. Good to know Araris tipped it that far against her. Another person town reading Xino is a good look for his slot; I see his vote ended up on Thaid, who might be partnered with Araris, so I understand why that looks good for him too. TJ remained on Stick, as did Thaid which... idk. Wagonomics instincts tell me it's very unlikely for elims to stack their votes together like that, but also the votes were really close so, hm. Is there a reason for people to think TJ is suspicious beyond that? 

That quote of Striker's is interesting (assuming that it's not paraphrased). I'll actually cackle if Kas made him elim again after the BT and QF xD but tbh idk how to read that without having been there myself or at least backreading with timestamps in mind. That said, I think it would be very unwise for e!Striker to post that in a world where e!Araris is about to get yeeted, if not unlikely. In the QF he talked a lot about wanting to survive a game, and I imagine he'd have the same mentality in this one; losing one teammate is bad enough and I expect he wouldn't want a repeat of AG8 either. So if anything, that's a Town point in Striker's favor from my (albeit limited) PoV.

Mat being the third vote on an elim is a good look IMO (for the same reason that being the 3rd/4th vote on a Town yeet is usually a bad look). I would expect bussing to happen after the fact, since 2 votes isn't exactly damning while 3rds give a wagon its steam. I guess the question I have comes back to is, why do people think Araris was bussed at all? Is it just because there wasn't more resistance or what?

Gah, if anything, this just tells me I need to read EoD myself >> I'm sure I'll get to it eventually but I really don't feel like it right now. I just want to vibe out more with whoever is around.

Yes, while I did adhere to the belief that the Araris wagon was pure, I had some tinfoil based on Archer controlling the narrative that Araris was the designated fang candidate. It crossed my mind that Archer was making too big leaps in logic and that it might have been indicative of elim agenda, probably to set up a Striker misyeet and an Orlok misyeet (he specifically sussed you for retracting your Stick vote and not voting Araris, which I found really weird and disagreed with at the time). Also, for the reasons stated in the bolded paragraph above, I was reading Striker as Village rather than elim based on AG8/QF59 experiences with e!him.

Me bringing up that I'd have voted Archer over Striker had nothing to do with the fact that Archer was NK'd. It had to do with the fact that Archer was very nearly voted out. I was just being transparent about my thoughts because it would be weird for me not to express them. Before those flips, Archer was the only player I really believed could have been the busser for the above reasons, but once he died, I realized that it wasn't the case and went full in on believing in a pure Araris wagon. (At least until Mat nearly death tunneled me C4/C5 and I cracked).

Sadly, even when I think I'm a very good villager, I do make mistakes every now and then xD like the fact I took TJ's side versus Archer at all.

Anyway, thank you for doing this again Orlok, because it just confirms my belief in an e!TJ world.

No more Orlok tinfoil. We got this boys.

TJ

Edited April 5, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Mat he/him]

My headspace regarding Aman and TJ at the end of C3 is reflected in Orlok’s analysis. Very interested to see if he agrees with my swap :P. Don’t know what to think if he doesn’t.

[Amanuensis he/him]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

My headspace regarding Aman and TJ at the end of C3 is reflected in Orlok’s analysis. Very interested to see if he agrees with my swap :P. Don’t know what to think if he doesn’t.

Yeah, somewhat inconvenienced by the fact he only managed to do the first half of the game where I was still not in my element yet, but I'm clearing him for effort right now.

Hopefully I won't regret that in the aftermath xD

[Kasimir he/him]

Just to clarify the situation: there will be no pinch-hitter replacement after all.

Please carry on with your daily scheduled execution.

Good to see you back, Orlok  

[|TJ| he/him]

9 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Retrospect is 20/20 lmao

Idk why I bother with NK Analysis when I just get bogged down by the IKYKs

Gave TJ way too much of a pass when it was just an Archer suspected TJ and Bort fear kill, remove from game and hope for best

Orlok went into that exact same turn swinging for Bort when he could have gone after TJ, plus Orlok didn't even mention the NK as a point against Bort (Stick and I talked about this but I forgot, point in Orlok's favor) which means Orlok was just very likely on Bort's case from C2 and went inactive before he could follow the train of logic onto TJ

So yeah, either it's TJ/Orlok or just TJ. I refuse to believe anything else.

I'm sorry, I didn't understand a single point of this part. 

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

• Why would Aman kill his biggest supporter and leave me alive? e!Aman kills me and has JNV kill TJ, whom JNV already suspected.

Who was the most villager-y of all the players? If e!Aman kills you, it would have set Orlok more firmly onto Aman, with JNV being firmly village read. 

3 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

• TJ, on the other hand, knows that I’ve been in a tunnel on Aman for the whole game and can use that in today’s exe. He also can’t really kill anyone else- if TJ kills me, he won’t be able to convince JNV to vote Aman. If he kills Aman then he’d have to get either me or JNV to vote the other when we resolved at the end of last cycle to a mutual village read. Orlok’s a wild card, plus the chance of being TJ’s teammate (which I don’t really believe). So JNV is the optimal e!TJ kill along with TJ being like the only one who would kill JNV

I - really can't argue with this, you're right this is the most optimal move for e!me. So either you or Aman is doing a very good job of framing me. 

3 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I still don’t really elim read TJ. I don’t elim read anybody. TJ simply makes the most sense to me at this current state- Aman’s done enough to prove himself to even my tunneled eyes. If it’s Aman, he deserves to win just as much as if it’s TJ or Orlok.

Okay this is important so listen up. If you think I'm solo elim, remember I revealed my role as Elder as early as C2. Also remember we're going by the hypothesis that last elim member in a 3-person team is a Veteran because distribution is not balanced for a normal 3p elim team with Fang system. There's zero reason for elim!me to fake-claim as Elder being a Veteran, especially when there was a chance I could be voted out. I'd be immediately caught in my lie when a lose my life, get voted out again. Zero-profit move it is for e!Veteran!me to make. 

And the bolded part just annoys me smh :P. No, he doesn't deserve to win, because we have him in our sights. Don't be afraid to vote for him smh.

2 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

I'm basically convinced Archer was a fear kill to protect both Bort and TJ.

As evident from both the content and the timestamp of this EoC2 post of mine - 

I did not see the two Striker votes nor did I have the knowledge that they were coming. I was typing up this post and there is no way I could have put the kill on Archer when I was rushing to finish this up for EoC.

2 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

We got this boys.

If by boys, you mean your elim-mates, then yes xD

Matty, c'mon. You caught in me LG83. Do you really think I could have so distinctly different elim games b2b? 

[Amanuensis he/him]

Gah >>

Okokok let me entertain this for a moment

Does solo!e!Orlok come into today with a mega post like this to make sure he doesn't get voted today? Theoretically, he shouldn't care which of us he votes out, so I'd have expected e!Orlok to just make up a reason to follow Mat onto me or onto TJ.

Possible there are no Veterans period, village or elim, and it's too risky for him to not put in some kind of analysis work to avoid further scrutiny? I do acknowledge this could be possible - and I'd be lying if I said I wouldn't love being right about Orlok pulling a QF59 repeat - but I really doubt it right now? That big analysis post felt genuine to me...

No. I'm sorry TJ, but Mat and Orlok both have more concrete Village evidence going for them. I think you played an excellent game tonally, but your votes and pushes just don't line up.

Personally, yes, I think you had to play a distinctly different game in order to not get caught like in LG83. Your team lost Araris suddenly on D1, and with just you and Bort, I think you had no choice but to play the long game. Bussing him would have made it weird if you didn't get NK'd by lylo, so you just sat by and let it happened to show indifference. You were failing to get the whole village on board with your Araris bus paranoia, so you had to start killing them one by one until just Mat was left, and by then he was already tunneling me. And it all nearly worked.

Unfortunately the only kill you could make was JNV to win, and even then, it was a gamble, and it just led back to e!you anyway.

Edited April 5, 2022 by Amanuensis

[|TJ| he/him]

2 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Personally, yes, I think you had to play a distinctly different game in order to not get caught like in LG83.

Aha! I was suspected by only Mat (and Stick) and merely stating that Mat can read e!me correctly, which is what I meant by 'caught'. Your 'caught' seems to imply that I was eliminated, which I was not. It feels like your making this point to falsely argue that me having a different game is not the result of change in alignment.

Also, you make me sound so smart here - 

2 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

our team lost Araris suddenly on D1, and with just you and Bort, I think you had no choice but to play the long game. Bussing him would have made it weird if you didn't get NK'd by lylo, so you just sat by and let it happened to show indifference. You were failing to get the whole village on board with your Araris bus paranoia, so you had to start killing them one by one until just Mat was left, and by then he was already tunneling me. And it all nearly worked.

- only to theorize that I made the stupid, obvious, one move that would get me caught, here - 

2 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Unfortunately the only kill you could make was JNV to win, and even then, it was a gamble, and it just led back to e!you anyway.

Sigh, listen everyone, NK analysis, it's possible to frame anyone. The only thing that is mine are my votes and my posts. Judge me on them. I feel good tonally, but votes are bad? Then compare them to Aman's posts and how they feel. If I'm being scrutinized for my votes, look at Aman's votes too because they aren't particularly better than mine.