Mid-Range Game 57: Helvegen

[|TJ| he/him]

A bit busy rn to explain to all that so I'll get back to it, but why is everyone assuming Araris/Stick was v/e? @_Stick_, what do you think about your bus theory now?

[Mat he/him]

How does one vote analysis

Hmm

So if I mess up a VC anywhere just @ me because I'm making these as I go through the thread and probably missed something

K so the first VC that's maybe useful to look at is this one: (Up to here)

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• JNV (1): Matrim
• Stick (2): TJ, Orlok
• Matrim (1): Araris
• Bort (1): Archer
• TJ (1): Thaid

Which is basically just all of the enter-thread-go votes, at the beginning of C1. Things of potential note:

• TJ's vote, though I can't legally call it shaky reasoning since I half agreed with it at the time
• Araris' vote on me, come to your own conclusions. I greened myself, yes, but only because this is coming from my PoV. You're entitled to see it however you wish.
• Most interestingly, Thaid's vote on TJ- wondering if this is a situation where a 'random' vote is actually distancing in disguise. I know in my early elim days 'poking' a teammate was something I liked to do, but I don't know if it fits Thaid's profile. @Thaidakar the Ghostblood I know you said you didn't have any but try to explain it, please and thank you!

Moving on- (Up to here)

Quote

• JNV (1): Matrim
• Stick (3): TJ, Orlok, xino
• Matrim (1): Araris
• Bort (2): Archer, Striker
• TJ (1): Thaid
• Xino (1): Stick
• Aman (1): Bort

Striker's vote is interesting to me, since the only thing Bort had said at this point is that he wants to use the Fang ASAP, which is also one of the only things Striker has said. Not sure where this vote came from, seeing as their views were, on paper, pretty similar. @StrikerEZ

I don't really mind xino's vote, it makes sense with his progression imo

After some more posts we end up here:

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• Stick (3): TJ, Orlok, Thaid
• Bort (1): Archer
• Xino (2): Stick, Striker
• Aman (1): Bort
• Thaid (1): Matrim
• Striker (1): Araris

First, Thaid's movement from TJ to Stick is of obvious attention- I know some people (me included) just saw this as a ??? self pres but another way to look at it is a continuation of the Thaid-TJ distancing theory. Again, Thaid's playstyle lends itself to this not really being a conclusion that can be definitely made, but it's not not there.

Ngl I'm kind of a fan of Striker's abrupt switch from Bort to xino here, even if I didn't like his first vote. Reads village to me.

But Araris' vote I think just implies v!Striker, straight up, I know it's a movement off me and that could look weird to some people but I just don't read that as a bus, especially since Striker voted Araris in response to this vote and stuck with it. (Which isn't reflected in the above VC because of the large gap of posts between his and Araris', but his vote is here)

I also know that I mentioned Striker being the most likely bus candidate, but that was before I reread the thread and remembered exactly how it went down. The Araris train is likely just pure.

The next lightning rounds of votes take us to this

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• Stick (4): TJ, Orlok, Thaid, Araris
• Bort (1): Archer
• Thaid (4): Matrim, Stick, Bort, xino
• Araris (1): Striker

Kinda sorta reopens the e!Striker-bus possibility but eh

Gotta say I do not like the sudden Thaid train reading this back, I'm semi-indifferent to xino/Bort. And starting to favor Archer's read of Thaid :P. Also, I'm busting my TJ/Thaid/Araris theory since there's like no way they all end up on Stick here if they're all elims, right? There's been some crazy elim votes lately but surely not a bus to that extent...

Wait a minute

...Moving on...

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• Stick (3): TJ, Thaid, Araris
• Thaid (2): Bort, xino
• Araris (4): Striker, Stick, Archer, Matrim

There's basically no reason for e!Stick to move at this point, it's a dangerous move to make since she was tied with someone near EoD and went for someone- an elim no less!- with only 1 vote and not a ton of attention. Even if that bus post of hers totally fits with TJ/Thaid/Araris

Archer's vote is also just extremely villagery since there's no reason for him to touch that wagon unless one of Stick or Thaid are evil and Archer for some reason prefers Araris dead.

And that's our final VC. A few last notes:

• Orlok gets many village points for unvoting Stick, a move that was as critical as the Araris votes in getting him exed. There is absolutely no reason for e!Orlok to do this unless Stick is also evil, and preferred over Araris for some reason. I don't see it.
• I've seen people mention that TJ should be condemned for doing nothing at EoD, and I don't actually agree with this statement. I think e!TJ is smart enough to recognize that tying it with Stick is suspicious to begin with, so much more so if Araris loses the tie, so it makes sense for e!TJ not to have voted there.

CONCLUSIONS:

Village: Stick, Archer, Orlok

Sorta Village: Striker

Sorta Elim: Thaid

And no, I don't think anyone's votes were inherently elimmy. Elims typically know how to vote without looking super sus  I think the clears are the value we get from the C1 voting. There's probably something to be said about Bort and xino (both in their votes and the votes on them at various points in the cycle) but I don't have those words right now and this analysis took up more time that I thought it would (Kas, you're exceptional >>) but look I got it done tonight I'm so glad

Anyway

TJ Shade shhh yes I used your old name it's longer and more visible to GMs

To be crystal clear- not voting TJ because of his abstinence from voting at EoD last turn. I think his Stick vote is strange with the perspective of v!Stick, especially since it stuck for so long, and also because of the way he's fixating on the bus, and a little bit of his Archer suspicion which I just don't understand xD But here's the vote and I'm tired, good night.

If you read nothing in this post, read the spoiler box below, I c/pd the most important bits there which ended up being half the post anyway

Spoiler

• Most interestingly, Thaid's vote on TJ- wondering if this is a situation where a 'random' vote is actually distancing in disguise. I know in my early elim days 'poking' a teammate was something I liked to do, but I don't know if it fits Thaid's profile.

• But Araris' vote I think just implies v!Striker, straight up, I know it's a movement off me and that could look weird to some people but I just don't read that as a bus, especially since Striker voted Araris in response to this vote and stuck with it. (Which isn't reflected in the above VC because of the large gap of posts between his and Araris', but his vote is here)

• Archer's vote is also just extremely villagery since there's no reason for him to touch that wagon unless one of Stick or Thaid are evil and Archer for some reason prefers Araris dead

• Orlok gets many village points for unvoting Stick, a move that was as critical as the Araris votes in getting him exed. There is absolutely no reason for e!Orlok to do this unless Stick is also evil, and preferred over Araris for some reason. I don't see it.

• I've seen people mention that TJ should be condemned for doing nothing at EoD, and I don't actually agree with this statement. I think e!TJ is smart enough to recognize that tying it with Stick is suspicious to begin with, so much more so if Araris loses the tie, so it makes sense for e!TJ not to have voted there.

 

Edited March 28, 2022 by Matrim's Dice
Cleaning up the formatting

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Thaidakar

[Kasimir he/him]

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

(Kas, you're exceptional >>)

ilu too Shuffle Squat Bro <3

7 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Shhhh you can't be my ThreadPMBro while being my ThreadGMBro, maybe next game

Is it GM interference if I say nothing but radiate Supportive Bro Energy?

Asking for a bro.

Edited March 28, 2022 by Kasimir

[Bort he/him]

12 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Elim slip? :eyes:

So, if "bus" is an elim term, what do we call it when someone picks up a pile of votes at the end of a cycle? It used to be wagon, as in "jumping on the bandwagon," but it seems that bus is used a lot more these days. I assumed it was for "busload of votes" or something daft like that.

So, if bus is the elim term for this, what's the village term?

[Kasimir he/him]

6 hours ago, JNV said:

• Ok this isnt really evil but come on Kasimir's jokes were hilarious man like seriously

Thank you, I try, despite my Dulabro having left SE more-or-less for good. I soldier on bravely for his memory.

6 hours ago, JNV said:

Ok the popup at the bottom says thereve been like two new posts but Ive heard horror stories about refreshing and loosing everything so Im just going to post this and edit in replies to things if there are things to reply to if not last post of the night bye friends

K so I said this to Aman and Orlok and TJ in various contexts: if y'all working on a longpost, ctrl+a, ctrl+c before you hit post. Sometimes if you work too long on a post (not just even refresh), hitting post loses all your content. So it's good to work on it on a separate doc or build the habit of ctrl+a/ctrl+c right before you post. It reduces the chance of suffering when you hit post.

Source: LG83 Kas, screaming in frustration when he lost his D1-D2 vote analysis... :|

[Stick. she/her]

I've been v v busy at uni so I'm gonna try to make this quick 

14 hours ago, Archer said:

Rollcall question: what did everyone end up submitting as their Fang vote? I voted no.

I chose to use it - but also, what's the point of this question?  

14 hours ago, JNV said:

Ok this feels so wrong on like every level they were safe and fine and suddenly switch like what

I wasnt safe, I was up for the exe  And I'll be honest, I wasnt feeling the Thaid exe all that much. Yes, he had done some suspicious things, but as Orlok pointed out in our PM (and as many people said in thread), a Thaid exe would not have given us much info and he always seems suspicious so I thought it'd be better to switch to Araris, since I saw that many people were sussing him. Also, I don't think I ever explained this to the thread (brought it up to Orlok in PMs though) but what made me suspect Araris was the fact that he 'poke' voted Mat in the beginning and then switched to Striker (and later, me). This stood out to me because from what I've picked up, Araris tends to leave 'stab' votes on people during C1s and doesn't usually take his vote off form there. So switching over from Mat to Striker for a small and vague reason just felt off. And then of course, Araris' vote on me only made me more suspicious.

13 hours ago, Archer said:

I read it as them responding to viable pressure.

yeah, and I also didnt just wanna vote on anybody just to save my own skin. After a point it started to feel like I was exploiting Thaid's chaotic playstyle just to save myself, since everybody had some level of suspicion on him, so I tried to go for another viable exe  

10 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

If you're town reading Xino for his posts, why is that a thing you find significant, Stick?

A healthy amount of paranoia never hurt anyone  

10 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

What was the original case for Thaid?

They basically responded to Mat's vote on them in a weird way (immediate self-pres vote on me, even though Thaid had only one on them at that point). There were other things like them being hedgy about when to use the Fang etc but the former was the main reason for my suspicion.

9 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Wait why the heck did Stick bring up busing before the D1 yeet even went through? Now I'm even more confused xD

I was trying to get into dat elim mindset

7 hours ago, JNV said:

they feel so evil their aura is so menacing all the shivers down all the spines ya know

uh

>:)

6 hours ago, |TJ| said:

A bit busy rn to explain to all that so I'll get back to it, but why is everyone assuming Araris/Stick was v/e? @_Stick_, what do you think about your bus theory now?

Currently theorising that e!Archer might've voted on Araris there, but I'm looking more into it. If an elim was gonna die to the fang anyway, why not bus one who's on the chopping block.

[Mat he/him]

4 hours ago, Bort said:

So, if "bus" is an elim term, what do we call it when someone picks up a pile of votes at the end of a cycle? It used to be wagon, as in "jumping on the bandwagon," but it seems that bus is used a lot more these days. I assumed it was for "busload of votes" or something daft like that.

So, if bus is the elim term for this, what's the village term?

Ah, I see the confusion. A bus is when an elim final-votes on a fellow elim, especially when their exe goes through. The pile of votes you’re describing is called a bandwagon. I called your phrasing an elim slip (mostly as a joke) because as of now, with only one elim dead, we don’t know if there was a bus or not. Personally, I find it unlikely.

[JNV]

So the only question stick asked before TJ voted them was this (ok so copy quote box doesnt work sad)

Quote

  On 3/25/2022 at 0:39 PM, |TJ| said:

Oh, also, I'd be looking at deliberately fake confrontational interactions to throw us off the scent if we do Fang an elim later in the game.

why specifically later?

this doesnt feel performative it feels like a real question for actual elaboration on someones thoguht process also I asked in PMs and TJ didnt really say anything new there just repeated same old same old so like... hmm

8 hours ago, |TJ| said:

A bit busy rn to explain to all that so I'll get back to it, but why is everyone assuming Araris/Stick was v/e? @_Stick_, what do you think about your bus theory now?

If Stick was evil they could have just stayed on Thaidakar so theyre good unless Thaidakar is also evil which... i mean they always feel evil but Id be down next cycle cause right now I kinda want you dead (sorry youre very cool but also you feel a bit evil bad vibes you know)

8 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

• Most interestingly, Thaid's vote on TJ- wondering if this is a situation where a 'random' vote is actually distancing in disguise. I know in my early elim days 'poking' a teammate was something I liked to do, but I don't know if it fits Thaid's profile. @Thaidakar the Ghostblood I know you said you didn't have any but try to explain it, please and thank you!

 

8 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

First, Thaid's movement from TJ to Stick is of obvious attention- I know some people (me included) just saw this as a ??? self pres but another way to look at it is a continuation of the Thaid-TJ distancing theory. Again, Thaid's playstyle lends itself to this not really being a conclusion that can be definitely made, but it's not not there.

How is thsi continuing distancing if theyre voting together

 

8 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Gotta say I do not like the sudden Thaid train reading this back, I'm semi-indifferent to xino/Bort. And starting to favor Archer's read of Thaid :P. Also, I'm busting my TJ/Thaid/Araris theory since there's like no way they all end up on Stick here if they're all elims, right? There's been some crazy elim votes lately but surely not a bus to that extent...

Why are you saying 'bus' when youre takling about v Stick gtting dogpiled by a bunch of elims freudian slip much hmm (you mean crazy elim vote cause they would have voted together right)

8 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

There's basically no reason for e!Stick to move at this point, it's a dangerous move to make since she was tied with someone near EoD and went for someone- an elim no less!- with only 1 vote and not a ton of attention. Even if that bus post of hers totally fits with TJ/Thaid/Araris

Again how does that bus post fit if theyre all evil it wasnt a bus

7 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Thaidakar

Ok I get that youre sick but would appreciate reaoning when you feel better (even if its just "oh i agree with everyone else)

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

I wasnt safe, I was up for the exe  And I'll be honest, I wasnt feeling the Thaid exe all that much. Yes, he had done some suspicious things, but as Orlok pointed out in our PM (and as many people said in thread), a Thaid exe would not have given us much info and he always seems suspicious so I thought it'd be better to switch to Araris, since I saw that many people were sussing him. Also, I don't think I ever explained this to the thread (brought it up to Orlok in PMs though) but what made me suspect Araris was the fact that he 'poke' voted Mat in the beginning and then switched to Striker (and later, me). This stood out to me because from what I've picked up, Araris tends to leave 'stab' votes on people during C1s and doesn't usually take his vote off form there. So switching over from Mat to Striker for a small and vague reason just felt off. And then of course, Araris' vote on me only made me more suspicious.

I trust you but every word out of your motuh worsense the vibes ill be honest yeah the switch felt hmm but... didnt you want to live?

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

Currently theorising that e!Archer might've voted on Araris there, but I'm looking more into it. If an elim was gonna die to the fang anyway, why not bus one who's on the chopping block.

Ok like I dont think the way the fang opinion was going implied any sort of C1 fang I get we had like 4-5 but thats not 7 and I dont feel the bus Archer started the Araris suspicion with timing that felt natural and good thoughts maybe Archer pocketed me but I like archer and would actively say 'let em live'

 

Ok got to go for hours bye see you later have fun without me dont get too wild love you friendos

[StrikerEZ he/him]

I mean, I intentionally left my vote blank to see what would happen. A little surprised you're the only who said anything about it, JNV. I mostly made that vote because I feel like one of the other trains from D1 might also be an elim.

[Bort he/him]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Ah, I see the confusion. A bus is when an elim final-votes on a fellow elim, especially when their exe goes through. The pile of votes you’re describing is called a bandwagon. I called your phrasing an elim slip (mostly as a joke) because as of now, with only one elim dead, we don’t know if there was a bus or not. Personally, I find it unlikely.

Ah, I see. Thanks for explaining.

So... Bandwagon is still the same, and bus is last-minute-elim-jumping-on-elim-exe.

I got it now.

Sorry for the confusion, lol.

*******************************************

Bortington leaned down to examine the corpse of Stern, frowning as he looked it over. "This makes no sense, Luna. The Tashikki Brotherhood do not employ fake beards, so this one can't be part of the Brotherhood. So, why is everyone so sure they are? This looks to be a deeper conspiracy than I thought, Luna, and it's up to us to solve it."

"I don't think it's the Brotherhood, Bortington," Luna tried to explain, patiently. "I don't even think we're on the right world for the Tashikki Brotherhood."

"Nonsense, Luna!" Bortington rejected her comment. "You saw their pointed beard painted on that door. It MUST be them!"

He wandered off, looking for more suspicious bearded people to interview.

Luna gave a sigh and followed. Sometimes it was so painful to be the brains of an operation.

 

[Stick. she/her]

4 minutes ago, JNV said:

I trust you but every word out of your motuh worsense the vibes ill be honest yeah the switch felt hmm but... didnt you want to live?

To be fair, if the Araris train hadn’t taken off I would’ve definitely tried to find another exe target/switched back over to Thaid. I was online for the entirety of EoD which is the only reason I took that risk. 

Speaking of which, to everyone side eyeing Bort for having voted Thaid - I asked/convinced Bort to vote in that direction in PMs (Bort was in favour of an Archer exe more). I was very much scrambling to gather those votes  

8 minutes ago, JNV said:

Ok like I dont think the way the fang opinion was going implied any sort of C1 fang I get we had like 4-5 but thats not 7 and I dont feel the bus Archer started the Araris suspicion with timing that felt natural and good thoughts maybe Archer pocketed me but I like archer and would actively say 'let em live'

If the Fang hadn’t gone off last cycle and we hadn’t exe’d an elim, surely we would’ve used it C2, no? So the outcome would’ve been the same either way.

[Mat he/him]

40 minutes ago, JNV said:

How is thsi continuing distancing if theyre voting together

I was focusing less on where he ended up and more where he had left- if e!Thaid voted e!TJ, he'd want to get off eventually and it fits with mirrorAraris!Thaid to match TJ's vote in that scenario. Later though I ultimately decided those three being evil together doesn't really make sense because they entirely composed the Stick train.

42 minutes ago, JNV said:

Why are you saying 'bus' when youre takling about v Stick gtting dogpiled by a bunch of elims freudian slip much hmm (you mean crazy elim vote cause they would have voted together right)

What I was getting at there is that there's no way three elims voted Stick together unless Stick is also elim and her theory she posted late was, like, what was actually happening :P. That being a lot of elims piling on an elim to get credit. That 'Wait a minute' link is Stick's bus post, so that's what I was referring to when I said 'bus'. No, I don't believe this.

46 minutes ago, JNV said:

Again how does that bus post fit if theyre all evil it wasnt a bus

But it was if Stick is evil :eyes:

43 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

intentionally left my vote blank

Good podcast, would recommend.

42 minutes ago, Bort said:

 bus is last-minute-elim-jumping-on-elim-exe.

Doesn't have to be last minute, just elim-voting-elim, but yeah.

[Orlok Tsubodai he/him]

C1 Interrogative Readthrough:

Starting off by quoting my post of yesterday, as I don't think everything I asked there was answered:

Striker:

Quote

 

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I want to see the mechanic actually get used. And we have the most villagers alive right now compared to any later point in the game. So may as well use it.

 

Quote

 

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Illwei said:

I will say that now I'm thinking about it, using the fang now would be useful in the way that the elims wouldn't have to distance as hard, which would make them harder /easier to find depending. and they'd be down one. so that's something to think on as well.

 

 

this is basically what I have been thinking for doing the fang early

hmmm

Illwei and I agreeing at the start of a game? more likely than you would think. 

 

 

Quote

 

StrikerEZ said:

Not necessarily? I don't think that's guaranteed, but I think it's a possibility. I honestly hadn't thought of this as a reason. My reasoning was more focused on either losing the Elders before we can use it or losing the majority of active players willing to vote for the Fang and not being able to activate it.

Also, Bort.

 

 

@StrikerEZ, I don't see where in your twice stated logic you actually agree with Illwei - what about her argument for an early use of the fang did you actually support?

If you take whether or not the fang goes off as a given, when do you think it would actually be most useful to us?

Striker replied before the end of last cycle with the following:

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@StrikerEZ, I don't see where in your twice stated logic you actually agree with Illwei - what about her argument for an early use of the fang did you actually support?

If you take whether or not the fang goes off as a given, when do you think it would actually be most useful to us?

 

I don't understand how you got that I take the fang going off as a given. My argument has basically been this whole time that if we wait too long to use it, it won't go off at all. And I liked what Illwei said. Literally just that whole post I quoted.

@StrikerEZ, I think there was a clarity issue in my question, for which I apologise. My question was of two parts.

1) What of Illwei's argument did you actually agree with? Your own argument, as you've now restated, was that the fang might not go off at all, but I don't see that being the point she made at all?

2) This was perhaps poorly phrased. What I was trying to ask was "if we make the assumption that we can get the fang to go off whenever we want (If you take the fang going off as a given), when do you think we'd get most value from it? I think the thinking behind this is interesting, particularly given your position on the early use of the fang. Still interested in your now hypothetical answer.

---

Thaidakar:

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HEY! time to be randomly chaotic.

Squishy jello turtles!

 

@Thaidakar the Ghostblood, in what way does being randomly chaotic help the village at all? I know I fall at one end of the spectrum in how I tend to play SE, but how is being random and chaotic actually playing the game at all? It doesn't allow us to gain any information about you, it doesn't contribute in helping us read other players, and doesn't appear to involve you solving the game yourself.

In the interest of getting solvable information from you, who are the three players you're most suspicious of, and who are you the least suspicious of?

@Thaidakar the Ghostblood, although I note that you did later offer suspicions of Stick, Archer, and Bort, I'm interested in your updated answer to this, in light of the D1 lynch.

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I was kind of going on my gut with those reads. Though I do actually think Stick might actually be a little sus for some of the reasons people have said.

oh, lol. 

 

@Thaidakar the Ghostblood, which reasons, from which players?

Also still want this answered.

---

Xinoehp:

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It's eight hours in. It's late at night. I've got nothing better to do.

So... Bucket Reads time!

Good Bucket:

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Mat

Illwei

Orlok

Bort

JNV

 

 

@xinoehp512, what drove putting Bort and JNV into your Good Bucket?

@xinoehp512, same question.

TJ:

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Yeah, I take this more as an argument for 4-player elim team than to Fang D1. Elims do tend to freak out and overestimate the village's ability to catch them, and as you recall, you won the game following a D1 elim flip, so point in my favor? 

 

Quote

Archer said:

I think the only way the Fang mechanic will really hurt the elim team is if somehow someone they didn't expect to be exed gets pressured and they have to Fang that person instead, which leaves the originally planned target exposed for having had weird posts to that point. Otherwise, I'd pick a designated sacrifice and instruct them to be as confusing or low-info as possible, expecting them to flip within the first three cycles.

 

 

Something feels off about this, but I don't know what :P. I think there's too much elim strategizing here, that it looks like it's from an elim perspective?

 

 

I'm not sure I agree with you about this bit feeling off, @|TJ| - I think a significant part of the information we get from the fang is who is chosen, in addition to that flip itself, which requires us to model the eliminators' decision making process. 

What are your current views on Archer?

To which you responded:

Quote

Mmmrghhh, okay I see your point but... that post still reads off to me because it's not just predicting elim behaviour, he's taking about scenarios where elim team are hurt from Fang usage, and that line of thinking is more likely to have come from an elim. It follows a long chain of events - 

How does Fang hurt elims -> (on Negation) ->
How can you avoid Fang from hurting elims -> Pick a designated Fang victim and follow a certain play -> Confuse village ->(cases where this play doesn't work out) ->
Trusted elim gets a suddent train on them

I think it feels a lot more than predicting/anticipating elim moves.

My current views are Archer is that I still feel he's iffy :P. 

For clarity, this is all referencing this post from Archer:

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Archer said:

<2> I think the only way the Fang mechanic will really hurt the elim team is if somehow someone they didn't expect to be exed gets pressured and they have to Fang that person instead, which leaves the originally planned target exposed for having had weird posts to that point. <1> Otherwise, I'd pick a designated sacrifice and instruct them to be as confusing or low-info as possible, expecting them to flip within the first three cycles.

I think, reading Archer's post again, that you've picked a particularly uncharitable reading of it. My own reading of Archer's logic is: Elims aware fang will go off, so <1> they'll plan for it. As such, the fang will only hurt the elims if <2> something unexpected happens, and the fact they've planned for it leaves them exposed.

I don't think this is a particularly controversial read, nor too convoluted to arrive at, even if set out slightly backwards.

@|TJ|, the same question again - where are you now on Archer?

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19 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

What would your bus theory imply, do you think? Which candidate do you think is being bussed and who are the bussers?

 

 

I did not realize Araris had 4 votes. I don't remember anything he posted or any of the reasoning of votes on him. If there's a bus, I think this is likely.

Given Araris was an eliminator, do you think there was a bus?

---

Moving on to the posts I didn't get to last cycle. Fewer of these, because there's a lot on Araris, which I'll come to separately:

Xinoehp:

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_Stick_ said:

I would have assumed this was the case had your list been in the order of the playerlist or the order of posts this cycle. But it seems arbitrary so I assumed it was in order of strongest reads to weakest, hence Novel and Aman at the very end. And why did you omit Araris from the list when you've made sure to include everyone else, even the nonposters?

 

 

 I can't believe I've done this.

Araris goes in the Bad Bucket for now.

 

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_Stick_ said:

If this was your line of thought, why'd you include all three of us in the sus list? If you thought e!TJ was accusing me and Striker in order to make people not trust us, shouldn't this mean you're committing to TJ/Striker and TJ/me being not e/e?

 

 

Look, I only put about five seconds of thought into each of these.  If I tried to force myself to go any more in depth it never would have gotten done at all.

@xinoehp512, accepting that you didn't provide explanation for any other read, can you explain what your decision making process was on putting Araris in your "bad bucket"?

---

Matrim's Dice:

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Stick:

Yeahhh that honestly makes me pause too.

@Matrim's Dice you mentioned Thaid sounding off in PMs - could you elaborate on that?

 

 

There’s a lot of things we can give pause to because he’s done it before but they’re also just suspicious which makes it hard to read him :P. I think his activity has been less than ever before, which is potentially e indicative. Hard to say when he’s never been elim.

I asked about Thaid’s opinion on the Fang debate- his answer suggested to me that he didn’t want it to be used at all and was trying to cover that up with siding with later-rather-than-sooner, if that makes sense.

Like he said C2 would be good, and C3 would be good, and also C4, and when I pointed out that C4 would likely be too late he didn’t say anything. It was an answer to me that didn’t fit with what I expected based on his playstyle and seemed like he’d really just rather not use it.

I don’t think Stick should die today. v!Stick is definitely an asset to us and the reasons against her, while somewhat valid, I don’t think are enough. I’ve thought about this for awhile and think I’d rather wait for more evidence before voting her.

@Matrim's Dice, what did you expect based on Thaidakar's playstyle?

I'm not convinced that his answer does allow us to conclude that he didn't want the fang to go off - in my own first post I argued for a delayed fang:

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On the use of the fang, I think there are three options:

1) Using the fang on an early cycle (C1/2) guarantees that the fang will go off, but provides potentially very limited information as a result. 

2) A mid-cycle use gives us much more to analyse. Somewhat obviously, but it isn't just connections between the fanged elim we can look at - who is chosen gives us at least as much, both on implied activity of the team, and knowing what the eliminators want us to conclude.

3) Saving the fang for near LyLo, making elim coordination much more difficult/potentially game throwing. I don't think this is necessarily C3, although we can potentially reach 6-4 by then, given veterans.

Thaidakar's answer being reflective of the later-lynch arguments in thread doesn't contravene my own model of him. I think there are good reasons to pressure Thaidakar, but don't think him not backing a D1 fang is one of them.

On which:

---

Bort:

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Out of the two, I've got more of a village feel from Stick, so I'll switch my vote from Aman to Thaid.

Re this vote count:

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VC:
Stick(4): TJ, Orlok, Xino, Thaid
Thaid(2): Mat, Stick
Bort(1): Archer
Aman(1): Bort
Striker(1): Araris
Araris(1): Striker

@Bort, your previous posts focused on the fang (which I'll address in a moment). With nothing previously stated on voting intention or either Stick or Thaidakar, what abiut Stick and Thaidakar drove your read that Stick was more likely a villager than Thaidakar?

Your first post of the cycle was this one:

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I'm sat on a bus right now typing on my phone so rp will have to wait for now. I'll decide who I want to lynch later too. 

On the subject of the Dragon's Fang, out of the options presented, I'd rather see it used sooner rather than later, just so we don't lose it by accidentally lynching a darkfriend on day 1, like Striker in the last game.

Could it even be worth not lynching someone this cycle to make sure it works? Would that even work? @Kasimir? 

Reading back over this, it very much does look like you're suggesting that rather than the fang being additional to the lynch, we forgo the lynch to use the fang. This would:

1) Lose us any information from a D1 lynch, essentially putting us in D2 as a new D1, but with one fewer eliminator, and;

2) Minimise the information we got from the use of the fang itself.

Bort, why did you propose a strategy that would so heavily minimise our useable information?

---

---

The Araris Lynch:

This post from Araris (about 24 hours before the cycle ended) is the trigger point:

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Moving from Mat to Striker, I know he's sick and also got voted out D1 in the QF (which is why I voted Mat earlier), but there are too many names in that good list for my liking.  Both Mat and Striker have argued for a D1 Fang, which I firmly believe is in the elims' favor (it guarantees that they have an extra person to scheme with, versus us exing an elim, and we'll have 0-1 votes from the Fanged player to work with).

@Archer is the first player to express suspicion of Araris, here:

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Araris Valerian said:

Moving from Mat to Striker, I know he's sick and also got voted out D1 in the QF (which is why I voted Mat earlier), but there are too many names in that good list for my liking. Both Mat and Striker have argued for a D1 Fang, which I firmly believe is in the elims' favor (it guarantees that they have an extra person to scheme with, versus us exing an elim, and we'll have 0-1 votes from the Fanged player to work with).

 

 

I hadn't clocked that exing an elim means they don't get to stay in the elim doc, whereas fanging one does. Good point. That makes Bort's language look worse to me. Giving you a pass, Araris, on knowing the quirks of the elim rules well because you came up with the mechanic. 

But I don't like your switch from Mat to Striker here. Striker is has a reputation for being catchable by their reads lists, but it's weird that you talked about Mat and Striker being similarly suspicious while making the move from one to another. I also think the trade off of a guaranteed extra advisor vs extended thread control from having an extra vote/voice isn't all that significant. When evil, I usually dump by best ideas in the doc C1 and then it's mostly a matter of executing them, which doesn't require my continued presence. Having a strong opinion that one approach is better than the other seems odd. 

Araris pushes back, and Archer further articulates his suspicion of Araris:

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Araris Valerian said:

I'm not sure you've made an argument against me here. Maybe one in favor of consolidating votes a bit toward the end, given a likely larger elim team, but I would push for that anyway, to avoid a mess like the D1 and D2 of the last MR.

 

 

I was not, but I was making an argument that you're suspicious for the way you moved from Mat to Striker. Mostly because I was surprised you slid from stab vote you felt good about to person you felt slightly more good about, instead of sticking to the stab.  

@StrikerEZ, who was voted on by Araris, is the first vote on Araris:

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@Araris Valerian I am like 90% sure I actually had less people in my good pile than xino did. That post of yours reads like extreme reaching onto me. Araris.

Araris later moves on to Stick:

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I’m not going to be on for rollover, so I suppose I’ll vote Striker Stick. I know that’s not what Stick wants, I’m sort of ambivalent about the two but not a fan of voting alongside Mat. I also don’t like Mat’s defense of Stick, it seems too insistent for D1. I also agree with Thaid’s take on waiting to Fang for a bit, and actually that it would be ideal if we never needed to use it.

Which appears to drive Stick's immediate response expressing her own willingness to vote on Araris (now about two hours before the end of the cycle):

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You know what, I’m okay with an Araris exe too :] 

Guys you CANNOT exe me today.
I’m okay with any exe today tbh, apart from my village reads 

Matrim expresses his own willingness to lynch Araris:

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Araris Valerian said:

I’m not going to be on for rollover, so I suppose I’ll vote Striker Stick. I know that’s not what Stick wants, I’m sort of ambivalent about the two but not a fan of voting alongside Mat. I also don’t like Mat’s defense of Stick, it seems too insistent for D1. I also agree with Thaid’s take on waiting to Fang for a bit, and actually that it would be ideal if we never needed to use it.

 

 

It is ideal if we never need to use it, because that would mean we get an elim today, but that wasn’t what it seemed like Thaid was implying to me. It also isn’t a reason not to use it, it’s not as if using the Fang successfully harms us in any way. Not using the Fang can harm us if we are just misexeing.

About Stick, do note that I never said that I village read her :P. Though we’re mindmelding so much rn that I can’t decide if I should, or if it’s a pocket attempt >> I do think her exe shouldn’t happen today.

Also would be fine with Araris but it looks like Thaid’s picked up some votes which makes me nervous since the reason I’m voting him is something only I saw. I would have thought other people would be more hesitant to join me. Village points to TJ for not voting Thaid?

 To which Stick responds five minutes later with a vote on Araris:

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Should we try Araris?

Followed a minute later by Archer (and given the length of his post, I think that it must have been started before Stick's own vote):

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Maybe I'm misremembering Araris' village playstyle since I don't see it that often, but is 'I don't want to vote alongside a sus' an argument they use much? All their votes have pinged me this round. I have a sinking feeling that Thaid is a convenient mix and Araris is taking advantage of that by having overly strong opinions about how the fang should be deployed and how people should think about it. I mostly got disconnected vibes from Thaid, not evil. 

I got village vibes from Stick because in our PM they changed their mind about Mat on their own. So Araris  Bort

Matrim votes on Araris five minutes after Archer:

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There’s an hour and a half left in the cycle, right? Feel bad about this if Araris isn’t coming back xD

Araris

I do think we should try to use the Fang today

Striker's post is a minute later than Matrim's, and is quite interesting:

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Stick (4): TJ, Orlok, Thaid, Araris
Araris (4): Striker, Stick, Archer, Mat
Thaid (2): Bort, Xino

Okay, I think this is accurate now. I was going to potentially switch to Thaid, but now Araris is up for the exe as well and I'm half tempted to secure an exe on Stick. Or just find a way to tie it between Thaid and Stick 

EDIT: OH COME ON

Before his edit, the vote count would have been:

Stick (4): TJ, Orlok, Thaid, Araris
Araris (3): Striker, Stick, Archer
Thaid (3): Bort, Xino, Matrim

Which is the context in which we should read:

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Okay, I think this is accurate now. I was going to potentially switch to Thaid, but now Araris is up for the exe as well and I'm half tempted to secure an exe on Stick. Or just find a way to tie it between Thaid and Stick 

With pressure building on Araris, Striker suggests that he was going to switch to Thaidakar, but now wants to secure the exe on Stick.

@StrikerEZ, why were you looking for a way off voting for Araris at this point?

Why did Matrim's vote change your mind?

At this point I post my thoughts on the first half of the cycle, as part of which I'd reevaluated Stick, and retract on her, taking the vote count to:

Stick (3): TJ, Thaid, Araris
Araris (4): Striker, Stick, Archer, Mat
Thaid (2): Bort, Xino

Striker then gets the vote count wrong:

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It's currently a 3-way tie between Araris, Stick, and Thaid. I agree with Stick that the elims might be trying to bus one of their own to basically deny us the Fang, as it seems like a lot of people are voting for it. I can't decide who I think the bus is.

But keeps his vote on Araris.

@|TJ| keeps his vote on Stick, and suggests that Araris may be being bussed:

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I did not realize Araris had 4 votes. I don't remember anything he posted or any of the reasoning of votes on him. If there's a bus, I think this is likely.

I think overall, Archer, Stick, and Matrim come out of C1 hard-cleared for me. Striker is more interesting. He was voted on by Araris, and was the first vote for Araris, and left his vote on Araris despite a close lynch. This post:

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Okay, I think this is accurate now. I was going to potentially switch to Thaid, but now Araris is up for the exe as well and I'm half tempted to secure an exe on Stick. Or just find a way to tie it between Thaid and Stick 

Does make me worry that Striker's initial vote was distancing - this looks entirely like it could be seeking a way off Araris, but then finding his vote pinned by Matrim - even if Striker retracts after Matrim's post, Araris would have a 50% chance of being lynched, which would leave Striker looking very exposed.

On balance, I think his actions are more likely to come from a villager. Mild-moderate v!Striker, but much more open to reevaluation here than on Archer, Stick or Matrim.

---

I'll address C2 when I've had a break.

Edited March 28, 2022 by Orlok Tsubodai
Attempted to fix quotations

[Kasimir he/him]

For my own sanity:

Bort from Orlok - log this.

Edited March 28, 2022 by Kasimir

[Mat he/him]

3 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

@Matrim's Dice, what did you expect based on Thaidakar's playstyle?

I'm not convinced that his answer does allow us to conclude that he didn't want the fang to go off - in my own first post I argued for a delayed fang

I expected him to want to use the Fang :P. Subverting expectations isn't suspicious though, especially when those expectations were just me thinking.

It's not purely that he argued for a delayed Fang, but much more the tone and way he argued for that... it's hard to explain when I'm the only person who can see the PM :P. But I am now leaning towards Archer's view of Thaid, which is just village disengaged. I think it makes sense for one and only one of TJ/Thaid to be evil and right now I'm leaning TJ but we'll see I guess.

[Stick. she/her]

Actually you know what, Striker

I’ll explain in a bit  

Thaid

[Bort he/him]

7 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Bort:

Re this vote count:

@Bort, your previous posts focused on the fang (which I'll address in a moment). With nothing previously stated on voting intention or either Stick or Thaidakar, what abiut Stick and Thaidakar drove your read that Stick was more likely a villager than Thaidakar?

Your first post of the cycle was this one:

Reading back over this, it very much does look like you're suggesting that rather than the fang being additional to the lynch, we forgo the lynch to use the fang. This would:

1) Lose us any information from a D1 lynch, essentially putting us in D2 as a new D1, but with one fewer eliminator, and;

2) Minimise the information we got from the use of the fang itself.

Bort, why did you propose a strategy that would so heavily minimise our useable information?

Damn Orlok. That's one hell of a post! I didn't miss anything relevant to me, did I?

So, the first post thing, about the Dragon's Fang. I didn't "propose a strategy" so much as throw an idea out for discussion. At the time, I was sat on the bus (the public transport kind, not the elim kind  ), about 5 minutes before I was due to get off, and I wasn't going to be back for several hours at the earliest, so wasn't really thinking too much about strategy, just putting an idea out there.

As for my vote, why Thaid and not Stick? Because I felt that Stick's posts were more helpful. Thaid's posts had next to no information in them, where Stick did seem to be trying to solve things, even if that turned out only to be "How can I survive?"

[Archer he/him]

-The origins of bus are the phrase 'throw them under a bus', if that helps
-There's the possibility that e!Stick was a Thug and therefore more valuable to the team, or that Araris had better played a low info game to that point - but why put so much effort into the wagon change? Unless everyone on the CWs was evil and would be implicated. It's just such over engineering that it doesn't seem likely.
-I'm willing to read Orlok's vote as not evil for now. 
-Interesting to hear that Bort was influenced by Stick. I suppose you were hard committed to v!Stick then?
-Oh yeah, I was ninja'd by Stick's Araris vote. I think I knew it was a possibility though, since they were looking for anything that stuck, so I wasn't spooked by it.
-I do like Striker's initial Araris vote, but am held back from a strong village read by the reasons Orlok articulated.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

26 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

1) What of Illwei's argument did you actually agree with? Your own argument, as you've now restated, was that the fang might not go off at all, but I don't see that being the point she made at all?

I think I was more agreeing with her coming to the conclusion that it would be worth using it today. I do not remember the mindset I was in when I read the post and said I agreed with it and don't really know what exactly I was agreeing with, beyond the idea of using the Fang soon.

28 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

2) This was perhaps poorly phrased. What I was trying to ask was "if we make the assumption that we can get the fang to go off whenever we want (If you take the fang going off as a given), when do you think we'd get most value from it? I think the thinking behind this is interesting, particularly given your position on the early use of the fang. Still interested in your now hypothetical answer.

Ah okay. I understand the question now. It's not much use to think about now, but in a scenario where the Fang was guaranteed to go off whenever we wanted it to, I probably would've suggested using it a bit later. Probably on LyLo, to make sure that we don't lose, even if we misexe.

32 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

@StrikerEZ, why were you looking for a way off voting for Araris at this point?

Because my philosophy on voting is that my vote is best served if it is apart of an exe that kills someone. My thought process going into making that VC was seeing if the Araris exe was a viable exe. Before I realized that it was actually a viable exe (the last time I'd checked, it wasn't really), I was considering voting on Thaid or going for a tie, which is something I particularly enjoy setting up. Even if it might contradict my other desire to secure an exe with my vote. Also I was considering securing an exe on Stick because a small part of me was worried that the counter trains on Thaid/Araris were partially elim attempts to save Stick. I am glad that I stayed on Araris, though.

37 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Why did Matrim's vote change your mind?

It wasn't specifically Mat's vote, it was all of the votes that joined with me on Araris. Mat's just set me further down the path that Stick's and Archer's already had.

[Bort he/him]

21 minutes ago, Archer said:

-Interesting to hear that Bort was influenced by Stick. I suppose you were hard committed to v!Stick then?

You really are twisting everything I've said this game, taking everything I say to the extreme. Why?

As my last post explains, I was reading Stick as being more potentially village than Thaid.

Why, in your head, does that translate to "hard committed to v!Stick"?

[Archer he/him]

13 minutes ago, Bort said:

You really are twisting everything I've said this game, taking everything I say to the extreme. Why?

As my last post explains, I was reading Stick as being more potentially village than Thaid.

Why, in your head, does that translate to "hard committed to v!Stick"?

Unfortunately for v!you, I've got a bunch of solid village reads, so the pressure shifts to the remaining people. If you take out the Araris voters, JNV who had some good reads progression on Mat in our PM, TUN for inactivity, Orlok for the vote retraction, Aman who made a very confident request for everyone to summarize the thread for them that I assigned a light gut read, there really isn't many people left. So I apologize if I'm barking up the wrong tree. I'm down to you, TJ, and Thaid. Although I'd probably bring Aman, Striker, and TUN back into the net fairly easily. 

When someone's desperately trying to survive, as Stick was, that usually makes me more suspicious of them if they PM me. Because elims tend to care more about living. I would be suspicious that they plan on getting a mix off by using my vote, and would hesitate to shift my vote for them if asked directly unless there's a strong difference in how much I suspect them compared to someone else. It feels a little to cooperative unless you trusted them, which is different from not suspecting them. And it's convenient your vote ended up on a place that would have benefited the elims to keep Araris as a distant third option. 

[Bort he/him]

That doesn't explain why you are taking what I say and stretching it out to absurd levels.

[Stick. she/her]

Alright I've got time now so here.

Striker Posts

1. Agrees with Mat that there are 4 elims, let's use the fang now. (Very direct and succinct, albeit because of sickness. NAI.)

2. Explains why the fang must be used immediately - we have the largest number of villagers alive at this point after all. (Very strong opinion here, stands out in contrast to Araris' view. Could see the elim team deciding to offer both takes to the thread, perhaps a form of distancing.)

3. Agrees with illwei that using the fang now would prevent elims from not distancing too hard. (Nothing of much significance, except that Striker did not bring this point up in his previous post outlining why we must use the fang now)

4. Throws an unexplained vote on Bort (I dont know who it was that brought up that Striker and Bort shared opinions about the Fang, so this vote was weird - I agree), but prior to this, again explains why we should use the fang early (So far, all Striker's talked about is the fang mechanic) - says that he is concerned about losing the Elders before this happens, in addition to village numbers going down. (This statement is interesting, in light of Araris' role. There was an elim elder. The elims knew that delaying the Fang would not help them - there's nothing they can do to assuredly stop us from using it unless one of their own dies. Sure, they could be hoping that our numbers would dwindle down so much that we wont get half the players to vote for it, but I mean, they can never be sure of this. The village will always outnumber the elims, until we lose.)

5. Switches vote to Xino because of a gut feeling (Something that sticks out here is just the general oddness and casual fluidity of his vote - I can see e!Striker trying to channel his MR56 playstyle here, trying to appear village). But a reads list has been posted. Yay! 

Quote

Striker's reads list:

Good

Bort, Illwei, Mat, Orlok, TJ, JNV

Bad

xino, Archer, Thaid, TUN

Araris, Aman, and myself left out because apparently we had not left enough of an impression on Striker lol. (I have a feeling that if Striker is evil, he would throw in one teammate in each of those three tiers.)

6. Likes mlerp (NAI)

~~~~* Brief intermission here to address Araris' post where he votes on Striker. The interaction that takes place here is why I've voted on Striker - because I just can't make sense of why Araris would do this. Striker had zero votes on him at this point, and as Mat points out later, Mat had a greater number of people in his village reads list (same reason why Araris had found Striker suspicious). I was the leading vote at this point, so why did Araris go out of his way try to pursue a different target when no teammates were in danger? *~~~~~

7. Striker responds to Araris' vote with a vote on Araris, and accuses him of 'extreme reaching'. (I agree with this, it was reaching. But again, why. Araris later responds to this, asking Striker this very question - why would Araris bother with this vote? Well it makes perfect sense to do as e/e IMO. And Araris also says so himself. This is some weird IKYK, but I'm going to try and ignore that for now.)

8. Thanks Mat for helping his case. (NAI.)

9. Responds to Araris' post, arguing that an Araris/Striker e/e scenario isnt the only one that would make sense here. Says that he doesn't think Mat is evil. Actually lemme just c/p this part here:

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You wouldn't have to be e/e with me to vote on me as an elim if you're looking for a good reason to vote on me for some reason

I don't know how I glossed over this before, but everything about that bolded part screams elim to me. It just feels so...redundant? Especially after Striker had accused Araris of reaching, just moments ago, which implies that the reason was not sound nor good. And the 'vote on me for some reason' also just sounds very off. Like...like it's trying to sound innocent and confused? but also?? You get what I mean, right?

10. Responds to Mat admitting that maybe he'd reacted too hard to Araris' vote, maybe cuz of his sickness. (Yeah...or maybe cuz it was meant to be performative? )

11. Asks for VC (NAI.)

12. Posts vote count and says:

Quote

Okay, I think this is accurate now. I was going to potentially switch to Thaid, but now Araris is up for the exe as well and I'm half tempted to secure an exe on Stick. Or just find a way to tie it between Thaid and Stick 

Notably does not even consider voting Araris. Reminds me of when Stink had to choose between three people who were up for the exe, and he told the thread he was indifferent to voting on any of the two that weren't me. (We were e/e.)

13. Posts (erroneous) VC, brings up the possibility of a bus, says he cannot decide which one it could be.

14. Post elaborating on the fang thing again.

Okay yeah that's all

[Mat he/him]

13 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I dont know who it was that brought up that Striker and Bort shared opinions about the Fang, so this vote was weird - I agree

That was me, and I'd still like an answer to that, @Striker  

13 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

~~~~* Brief intermission here to address Araris' post where he votes on Striker. The interaction that takes place here is why I've voted on Striker - because I just can't make sense of why Araris would do this. Striker had zero votes on him at this point, and as Mat points out later, Mat had a greater number of people in his village reads list (same reason why Araris had found Striker suspicious). I was the leading vote at this point, so why did Araris go out of his way try to pursue a different target when no teammates were in danger? *~~~~~

Hmm, that was the interaction that made me mark Araris/Striker as not v/e so that's interesting :P. My view was, like- yes it's a weird move for Araris to make but it would be weird for anyone, not just Striker, and Striker's reaction felt over-the-top to be distancing. Reading this makes me reconsider, especially in light of this next point.

14 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Notably does not even consider voting Araris. Reminds me of when Stink had to choose between three people who were up for the exe, and he told the thread he was indifferent to voting on any of the two that weren't me. (We were e/e.)

Both you and Orlok have pointed this out and I agree, it's something I missed when rereading the thread purely looking at the timing of votes. It... really does look an awful lot like Araris and Striker tried to distance, and when Striker wanted to back out he was too late. I'm not really against voting Striker I suppose, but I think that it might be a good idea to vote off of the Araris train in general. We'll see, you make a pretty good case :P.