Long Game 88: Blood and Bloody Ashes!

[---]

58 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

This was me for pretty much all of champs.

Yall can say you find it weird but in the end I have good accuracy so it's not like I'm pulling them out of thin air. 

Edited August 14, 2022 by Illwei

[Conquestor he/him]

2 hours ago, Luckspren said:

You're also being suspected by Illwei because 1) you said she wasn't contributing, bringing you up to a total of one post yourself, and 2) you suspected Araris but not Illwei for voting Wizard, when they gave the same lack of explanation for their votes. Those posts are highlighted in the spoiler box conversation, for reference. 

I think you already addressed everything here except why Illwei's one post with a vote in it was less of a contribution than your one post with no vote in it. 

Ah, this makes sense. Apparently, I'm denser than I thought because I didn't pick up on that last game or this one. I guess first of all I'll explain what I mean by contribution. For me contribution has less to do with quantity of posts (although that's never hurt anyone) and more to do with the quality of the posts themselves. Now, what do I mean by quality? To me a quality post includes at least a paragraph of decent reasoning and some assumptions. There's probably more to it than that, but that's all I could think of right now. I got onto Illwei first because they were a one sentence vote and so didn't include much thought (at least to me) or reasoning. I like clear explanations, which I might be bad at, but it makes sense to me when I write things out... 

Quote

Your point about thread control is relevant though. Do you think that players like Illwei, Mat, and myself are more suspicious because we’ve had relatively more influence on the thread, given that your analysis suggests the elims would be forced into that?

Ah, so that was you trying to make me be clearer about who I thought was elim and vil, etc. Yeah, I definitely didn't see it that way at the time, but it makes a lot of sense looking back. Again, maybe I'm denser than I thought. Well, I've never actually done the whole "this is how I feel about everyone" before. Mostly because my reads aren't the best and I dislike being wrong. I feel like I would put too many people in the "I dunno" bucket. I guess it's a good tool though and is something I should get more used to doing. Here we go I guess...

Vil: ?

Vil Lean: Luckspren, Mat, Vorros

No Man's Land: Araris, Devotary, Wizard

Elim Lean: Illwei, Sart, Xino, Shining

Elim: ?

 

If you have any questions about that list, I guess at me and I'll do my best to explain. At least this first cycle has been interesting! This is what the last game was missing... "You! No, you! Haha! I caught onto you! Haha, that was a trap!" sort of thing. I'm excited to see hoe the voting ends. Also, I don't know if I'll be on again before the cycle closes, but I'll try my best!

[---]

We can talk about quantity and quality and their difference with contribution, but saying "it's not quantity, it's just I expect a paragraph at least of reasoning for everything" is a little contradictory.

 

[Vorros]

12 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

Ah, this makes sense. Apparently, I'm denser than I thought because I didn't pick up on that last game or this one. I guess first of all I'll explain what I mean by contribution. For me contribution has less to do with quantity of posts (although that's never hurt anyone) and more to do with the quality of the posts themselves. Now, what do I mean by quality? To me a quality post includes at least a paragraph of decent reasoning and some assumptions. There's probably more to it than that, but that's all I could think of right now. I got onto Illwei first because they were a one sentence vote and so didn't include much thought (at least to me) or reasoning. I like clear explanations, which I might be bad at, but it makes sense to me when I write things out... 

Ah, so that was you trying to make me be clearer about who I thought was elim and vil, etc. Yeah, I definitely didn't see it that way at the time, but it makes a lot of sense looking back. Again, maybe I'm denser than I thought. Well, I've never actually done the whole "this is how I feel about everyone" before. Mostly because my reads aren't the best and I dislike being wrong. I feel like I would put too many people in the "I dunno" bucket. I guess it's a good tool though and is something I should get more used to doing. Here we go I guess...

Vil: ?

Vil Lean: Luckspren, Mat, Vorros

No Man's Land: Araris, Devotary, Wizard

Elim Lean: Illwei, Sart, Xino, Shining

Elim: ?

 

If you have any questions about that list, I guess at me and I'll do my best to explain. At least this first cycle has been interesting! This is what the last game was missing... "You! No, you! Haha! I caught onto you! Haha, that was a trap!" sort of thing. I'm excited to see hoe the voting ends. Also, I don't know if I'll be on again before the cycle closes, but I'll try my best!

Is it just me, or am I sensing two opposing groups forming adverse worldviews?

Heck, we may be unfortunate enough to have our own little divided Tower. 
 

Other than that, I totally relate to the not wanting to be wrong, but the fact of the matter is that there are only a select few god gamers in the world, so I think it would be better to guess and be wrong because it’ll help us talk it through and maybe make your guesses not be wrong anymore. 
 

Quote

We can talk about quantity and quality and their difference with contribution, but saying "it's not quantity, it's just I expect a paragraph at least of reasoning for everything" is a little contradictory.

^^^By Illwei

This also a very fair point. Quality is subjective too, and I think it is a little counter productive to try to force possible teammates to conform to your perception productive. That said, you gotta catch the wolves somehow. 

Edited August 14, 2022 by Vorros

[---]

Sart

I'll go back to this for now. 

If conq is an elim then it's [devo, wiz, shining] poe I believe. 

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

So I have the votes tallied as:

Illwei: Conq, Luckspren, Vorros

Sart: Illwei

Conq: Xino, Sart, Araris

Xino: Mat

I think that is right. 

[---]

Out of all the people who haven't posted a lot, i don't think Xino is the most likely to be an elim @Matrim's Dice. Why xino again? Asking because it sure seems like you're voting xino because you think I'm an elim and they're my likely partner. 

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

50 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

Elim Lean: Shining

Ok so I haven't had much time to read through and analyze yet; my apologies, it's been a crazy day (and I'll be more active in the future). As the only thing that I've posted was a general question that applies to most players, I'm curious why I'm you think I'm elim lean at this point in time.

To be honest, I'm not following the discussion very well- either I'm really tired or this is my first game and I'm over my head with tells from other games and such.

[Vorros]

Don’t worry you still got 25 minutes to sit down and think through it! Going back is a lot easier to do here than it is to do on MU, I’ll tell you that. Volume-wise at least. 

Edited August 14, 2022 by Vorros

[---]

25 minutes? The cycle was posted at 10:20 my time so I assumed we had another 3 hours left for the 48 hours. 

[Vorros]

Oh it said 10 pm mountain time in the Sign ups and I forgot I’m in central lol. It’s in a little over an hour I believe. But if it did start an hour late then it may go longer. 

Edited August 14, 2022 by Vorros

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

3 hours ago, Conquestor said:

You know what? Fair enough, I guess I wasn't making myself very clear. I would state it more like this:

1. The elim kill is less likely to succeed than normal

2. The elims will value thread control more than normal

3. Thread control lets the elims kill (via voting) more people to make up for (1)

4. Vote manip makes voting (and hence thread control) relatively less important

5. Players vying for thread control are not more or less likely to be elims (because hopefully villagers will be trying to get thread control too!) 

It feels like your number six is coming out of left field. The elims are going to be able to coordinate and use their actions in coordination with each other, meanwhile the village is going to be mostly shooting in the dark. This makes it easier for the Elims to mess with the vote and more random and thus harder for the village.

5 does require every villager, or every villager with lots of posts, to have independently come to the conclusion that thread control is more important this game than in other games.  Without that, people trying to control the thread more than they typically do are more likely to be elims. More than they typically do is important though, since Illwei is always a thread person, Mat tries to fill in gaps, and Araris votes to kill people.

@Illwei, you've village cleared a lot of people contingent on Conq being elim, but don't seem to think he's evil. That makes your PoE mostly low posters; me, Wizard, Silhouette, Vorros, Sart, xino? I guess that's more than half the players, but little thread control.

[Vorros]

I don’t think Illwei is paying any respect to thread control or presence. She’s doing her own thing.

While I had a late start, I’ve been pretty present since then I think. I certainly will be in later phases as I hope Sart and Xino and Shining will be too. 

[Mat he/him]

54 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Sart

I'll go back to this for now. 

If conq is an elim then it's [devo, wiz, shining] poe I believe. 

Why Sart again? When you inevitability don’t answer I’ll go back and check  

25 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Out of all the people who haven't posted a lot, i don't think Xino is the most likely to be an elim @Matrim's Dice. Why xino again? Asking because it sure seems like you're voting xino because you think I'm an elim and they're my likely partner. 

I’m voting xino because I think the Conq train is largely baseless and xino’s reasoning strikes me as vague and easy to claim. You being partnered is secondary.

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

4 hours ago, Conquestor said:

1. The elim kill is less likely to succeed than normal

2. The elims will value thread control more than normal

3. Thread control lets the elims kill (via voting) more people to make up for (1)

4. Vote manip makes voting (and hence thread control) relatively less important

5. Players vying for thread control are not more or less likely to be elims (because hopefully villagers will be trying to get thread control too!) 

1 hour ago, Conquestor said:

Elim Lean: Illwei, Sart, Xino, Shining

This doesn't add up for me. If thread control is all-important for the elims (and villagers too), then why have you put Sart (1 post), Xino (2 posts), and me (this is my third post) in elim lean instead of neutral? I might be reading this entirely backwards and the low post count is exactly the reason why you're suspicious of us, but it seems to me like you're saying that because the elim kill is less likely to succeed, the elims must vie for thread control themselves to influence the voting. I'm not sure I quite understand what you're saying about vote manipulation makes thread control less important, though...

It just seems to me that using that logic, the ones who haven't contributed as much to the thread shouldn't be put in one side or another at this point (unless you have other reasons, and if you do, I'd like to hear them) because I feel intuitively like your list of elim leans and village leans should be more based off of post count/thread control when I look at your explanation of thread control principles.

 

[Mat he/him]

Eh, Conq is fine. I don’t really have village points for him specifically. Illwei’s fine too.

I probably will stay off both trains because I’m a coward but I’m not opposed to one enough to vote the other.

[---]

Thread control being needed for elims != them currently having it. 

[The Unknown Order he/him]

Just under ten minutes remaining! Get your votes and actions in!

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

So it's tied 3-3 with less than ten minutes left. Illwei will either shift at the end, has teammates who will vote, has access to vote manip more reliable than 40%, or simply doesn't care about the risk of death. Some of those options lean elim but the last one is more village. Can't tell which it is. I can force it by voting for Illwei.

[The Unknown Order he/him]

Time!

[The Unknown Order he/him]

LG88 Cycle Two: Investigation and Observation 

Elith watched the investigation coldly. The coldness of a surgeon. They would never find out who did it, although they had figured out it was a Myrdraal. That had almost brought a smile to her lips. Almost. The Great Lord would rule this tower one day soon, no matter who needed to die to achieve that.

(%)

Illwei was executed! She was a Blademaster of the White Tower.

Vote Count:

Illwei(4): Devotary, Conquestor, Vorros, Luckspren 

Conquestor(2): Araris, Sart, Xinoehp512 

Xinoehp512(1): Matrim

Sart(1): Illwei 

Things to Note:

• This is a night turn, you may not vote. 

• PMs are an action! Do not send any, I will be sending them for you.

• This cycle will end on August 15th at 10:00 PM Mountain Time.

Rules doc:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1mrx-Nslg3G5WpPPOtz83V79PSAK-znQF5_LzUtTOHiA/edit?usp=drivesdk

Player List:

Spoiler

1. @xinoehp512
2. @Conquestor Anenti
3. @Araris Valerian Arenta
4. @The Wandering Wizard
5. @Devotary of Spontaneity Diesis
6. @Matrim's Dice Maytrim Sedai 
7. @Vorros Verin Sedai
8. Illwei Blademaster 
9. @Shining Silhouette
10. @Sart
11. @Luckspren Lelea Sedai

If I forgot something, yell at me, and I'll fix it tomorrow. 

Edited August 14, 2022 by The Unknown Novel

[Mat he/him]

I wish Devo had let that RNG but I guess it wouldn't have mattered. Conq's alignment (if evil) likely could reflect on Devo's, a v!Illwei is a good asset that the elims probably aren't sad about the village losing so I won't be forgetting about her numerous connections either.

I'll want to look at voting patterns and things more closely now that we have a flip, Illwei has lots of connections with lots of people so I should be able to find... something.

[Conquestor he/him]

I am both grateful and annoyed at Devo...  I hate super last minute voting like that, but I also know that it is kind of his thing. Although, @Devotary of Spontaneity, was trying to get vote manip to happen the only reason you voted for me? I'm curious to know.

Also, @Shining Silhouette, yeah, I wasn't completely logical when making that list, but it is kind of force of habit to be suspicious of low posters... Also, just because I think that it is more important doesn't mean that the elims themselves will think that.

Also, Sart, don't think I forgot about you posting once and voting on me. If I'm trying to blend in, I did a very poor job of it, of course I never really seem to be able to, but whatever. It's interesting though that it almost seems like you are trying to blend in. I mean voting so no one asks why you aren't and on someone who was already under heat. You then go on to lean village on wizard when others said so and then defend Araris. These were all things that others were doing and so you really didn't reveal anything about yourself. You also never came back and said anything. Why is that?

 

@Sart

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

18 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

I am both grateful and annoyed at Devo...  I hate super last minute voting like that, but I also know that it is kind of her thing. Although, @Devotary of Spontaneity, was trying to get vote manip to happen the only reason you voted for me? I'm curious to know.

The immediate reason was thinking it was strange that Illwei wasn't voting in self-preservation, yes. She easily could have assumed Blademaster would protect him from the exe, since that's what extra lives usually do. I also thought that clearing/village reading all the high-posters was premature.

A vote getting removed from you is notable since it was a tie right up until the end, but there's no way to tell the difference between Amyrlin Seat, Compulsion, and Forsaken missing vote just from the tally, much less determine why someone would want to save you/kill Illwei.

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

5 hours ago, Conquestor said:

Also, @Shining Silhouette, yeah, I wasn't completely logical when making that list, but it is kind of force of habit to be suspicious of low posters... Also, just because I think that it is more important doesn't mean that the elims themselves will think that.

Why is this? Is it elimy to low post in other games (or even this game )?

5 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

there's no way to tell the difference between Amyrlin Seat, Compulsion, and Forsaken missing vote just from the tally, much less determine why someone would want to save you/kill Illwei.

So if the Amyrlin voted Illwei, one of either Devo, Conq, Vorros, and Luckspren is the Amyrlin. If it was a Forsaken missing vote, the Forsaken is either Araris, Sart, or Xino. I feel like it wouldn't make sense for the villagers to use Compulsion this early when there's not too much to go off of, so I feel like for me this action would be done by an elim.

One of those possibilities is a genuine vote on Illwei, the next is that a forsaken struck against Conq in-thread to get others to vote them out or they voted trying to blend in with all the backlash against conq, and the final is (probably out of the two imo) an elim using compulsion to vote Illwei or save Conq or (not so probably imo) a vil using compulsion to add another vote on illwei or save conq because they're sure of their innocence/guilt (which I think is premature at this point). Tell me if I'm missing obvious scenarios; I'm just trying to make sense of what could be going on.