Long Game 89: Blessings of Metal

[Conquestor he/him]

3 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

That's not entirely true, since given the way vote manip works in this game, we would have known exactly who did the manipulation. Elims can't use vote manip stealthily in this gam unless the alternative train has several people on it.

I also think Mat should be considered the most cleared player at this point. He, rather than I, was responsible for Xino being an option.

I was running under the worst case scenario assumption that Xino himself could vote manip. If that was the case, Xino could move one of the people that were voting on him onto Kas and the votes would've tied. In that sense, I stopped the vote manipulation. Of course, now we know that Xino couldn't do that, but we didn't know what his role was at the time.

Also, I wouldn't say that is necessarily true. Yes, Mat voted on Xino and thus brought him up to two votes, but you were in the lead with 3 at the time and even after everyone got off of you, Xino was tied with Stick until you moved onto Xino yourself. 

3 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

As this was the response I was expecting going into tonight, your views are refreshing  But I'd take a look at Illwei's signal boost about how xino wouldn't have voted me and then Kas if I were elim, instead going straight for Kas. Unless you think I'm elim with Kas, and you said you read Kas as village, there's no reason for xino to vote me first if we're teamed.

Edit: You also seem to think I'd vote directly alongside my elim teammate, which isn't true. You also argue that I'd be smart enough to not out myself by basically arguing that I outed myself, and seem to think I was a lot more put together at EoD than I was :P. I was on mobile, c/ping red text like a maniac and trying to figure out what the heck was going on-- definitely not in a place to be thinking about distancing or ties.

I agree that my switch to Kas looks bad (I just think it looks funny, but that's from my PoV) but you have to look at xino's actions as well, and he voted me when he thought it'd cause his survival. When he saw me and Illwei both vote him, he could have switched to Kas as distancing, but it's also possible that he switched before he saw our votes because he thought he might have a better chance voting with me rather than against me.

I don't see how Xino voting for you first clears you. Perhaps I'm missing something. Illwei had already changed her vote to Shqueeves and so if Xino's vote was an attempt to save himself, then it wasn't a very good one. I will admit that it could've been an attempt to put dirt on Mat by Xino, but I'm still leaning towards it being a distancing vote attempt.

Mat, you never really voted along side Xino. It was Xino who voted alongside you. You voted Wizard and when Xino jumped in, he voted wizard, which is where his vote stayed until he changed it to Mat/Kas. I wouldn't say at all that you outed yourself, but I think that it's not a stretch to say that a member of your team who can't be on as much might follow at least your first vote and then later follow your vote in an attempt to save themselves. Xino also claimed to be stuck to mobile and for me that would have him follow you at least a bit.

Why do you think your EoD vote on Kas looks funny? Also, do you still think that Kas is elim? I also think that it's really funny that you and Kas were so against each other. I'm actually rather curious about that as well...

I've been looking through the D1 posts and can't seem to pull anything else out... I'll keep looking though because I feel like I'm missing something.

[Mat he/him]

19 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

I don't see how Xino voting for you first clears you. Perhaps I'm missing something. Illwei had already changed her vote to Shqueeves and so if Xino's vote was an attempt to save himself, then it wasn't a very good one. I will admit that it could've been an attempt to put dirt on Mat by Xino, but I'm still leaning towards it being a distancing vote attempt.

xino’s only motive was clearly survival— otherwise, why switch the vote at all once he’s cast it? His vote on me at all, cast that close to EoD, doesn’t make sense if we’re e/e, since he would have just voted Kas from the beginning if we were.

So unless you think the team is me/Kas/xino, it doesn’t make sense. You weren’t online at EoD, and I can tell you that the assumption that everyone knew the VC and had time to think about anything is false. xino’s vote, Illwei’s vote, my vote, and xino’s edit all happened within literally a thirty second window. Probably less.

27 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

Why do you think your EoD vote on Kas looks funny? Also, do you still think that Kas is elim? I also think that it's really funny that you and Kas were so against each other. I'm actually rather curious about that as well...

That feels like a trick question xD I think it’s funny because it looks like I’m trying to save xino, it’s not Kas in particular, when I know I wasn’t. Like, to me, the line ‘No, this is too easy, the wagon here points to v!xino’ is a very funny line :P. Dunno if I think Kas is elim, I think there’s definitely grounds for a case there. Nothing I said last previously has really changed.

But again, I’m only evil with Kas and you said that you read Kas village.

Also, I switched to Kas at what, 20 minutes to EoD? e!me gets off that train wayyy before that. If I’m voting a teammate at 20 minutes to EoD I’m cutting my losses and staying there every time.

[Conquestor he/him]

Well, this was an edit  to my above post, but thankfully Mat posted so I can separate them!

Huzzzah!!! That's what has been driving me bonkers... Illwei! I would quote her where I think she is acting sus, but I'll just link the posts so that this post won't be massive. @Illwei

Here Illwei votes for TUN for absolutely no reason, but TUN has voted for Mat. Araris votes for Mat several hours later. Here Illwei votes for Araris immediately after TUN unvotes Mat. (It was exactly 23 minutes between the posts, but there are no other posts between.) I would also like to hear her reasoning for why TUN and Mat are never on the same team. It was such a random thing to say. Kas votes for Mat the next day on page two. (This is important for later.)

Here Illwei posts something about TUN now leaning Elim because of Araris. In fact she takes back thinking that TUN was village and states that:

Quote

I think that Mat and TUN being likely unaligned was enough for me to call TUN more likely village, but still that wasn't the whole of it and i don't like that read anymore, but moreso becuause I think that there's likely something fishy in Stick/TUN/Araris.

(Sorry, I had to quote that part!) Were you leaning Elim on Mat then? That's how I read this. If they were unaligned in your mind and TUN was vil, at least at the time, then you would've thought that Mat was elim, right? Of course, I could be misunderstanding your statement here, so please correct me if I am.

Illwei then moves to voting on Mat from Araris and this is to create distance in my mind. (It makes more sense in a second!)

Here Illwei unvotes Mat an hour after she had voted him because he posted about his current reads. Hence the distancing thing, there was no sting behind the vote. Also, in that post by Mat, he puts Illwei at the top for "vibe" and while I don't discourage reading someone's vibe, putting them at the top of your list because of that reason is pretty strong.

Here Illwei states that she could be moved to Kas or Shqueeves after Araris's vote change to Xino, putting him in the lead. Then, two posts later, after my vote change to Xino, Illwei posts about her reads with Mat and TUN on the top and Kas, Xino, and Shqueeves at the bottom. She also votes for Shqueeves in this same post. Mat then posts seconds later with a vote on Kas. Illwei responds to Mat by saying that she doesn't want to kill Kas because of a lack of interaction between Kas and her. She then edits and says that the same should probably apply to shqueeves. 

Xino votes for Mat then edits the post to vote for Kas, perhaps thinking that his teammates will save him by voting for Kas and getting some last minute voters to join as well. When that doesn't happen, Mat and Illwei switch over to Xino.

All I'm saying is that I'm seeing a lot of strange interactions between Mat and Illwei. My proposed team is Xino, Mat, and Illwei. I am very open to changing my mind as new evidence comes up, however.

23 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

xino’s only motive was clearly survival— otherwise, why switch the vote at all once he’s cast it? His vote on me at all, cast that close to EoD, doesn’t make sense if we’re e/e, since he would have just voted Kas from the beginning if we were.

So unless you think the team is me/Kas/xino, it doesn’t make sense. You weren’t online at EoD, and I can tell you that the assumption that everyone knew the VC and had time to think about anything is false. xino’s vote, Illwei’s vote, my vote, and xino’s edit all happened within literally a thirty second window. Probably less.

I've already stated that I believe it was a distancing tactic which would make sense if your e/e. Why would Xino and you voting for Kas put you on a team with him? That seems a little forced. Although, I do admit that there wasn't a lot of time between all of the posts. That could be due to an inability to communicate with the each other in the doc as you are trying to cover up the mess that happened at the EoD and stepping on each other's toes with your posts. 

23 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

That feels like a trick question xD I think it’s funny because it looks like I’m trying to save xino, it’s not Kas in particular, when I know I wasn’t. Like, to me, the line ‘No, this is too easy, the wagon here points to v!xino’ is a very funny line :P. Dunno if I think Kas is elim, I think there’s definitely grounds for a case there. Nothing I said last previously has really changed.

But again, I’m only evil with Kas and you said that you read Kas village.

Also, I switched to Kas at what, 20 minutes to EoD? e!me gets off that train wayyy before that. If I’m voting a teammate at 20 minutes to EoD I’m cutting my losses and staying there every time.

That's fair! xD I wouldn't have minded you pleading the fifth on that one... that is if the constitution works on Scadrial...  Again, super forced. You are only evil with Kas? I just don't see it that way. It's fair that you probably would've gotten off sooner, but Araris didn't vote change from Stick to Araris until an hour before rollover. Not giving you a lot of time to react and try to switch the wagon. 

 

Edit:

I completely forgot to mention Illwei's plan to keep Mat alive as long as possible as she has stated today. That is more of a stretch though because that ties them together pretty strongly. Still, I could see Illwei getting out of it if she wanted to. 

Edited September 21, 2022 by Conquestor
Clarification

[Mat he/him]

14 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

All I'm saying is that I'm seeing a lot of strange interactions between Mat and Illwei. My proposed team is Xino, Mat, and Illwei. I am very open to changing my mind as new evidence comes up, however.

So let me get this straight:

You think xino's teammates chose to bus him to heck while being the only ones online at EoD. You think, even though they likely had the vote power to save him (and reads that fit together enough to both vote Kas or both vote Shqueeves, or literally anyone else) they opted not to. And you think the double-ninja reaction votes towards xino's vote on me is somehow e/e/e?

Just making that clear. Because I can see how you can push one of us, but thinking it's both is kind of absurd :P. If the entire elim team are the only ones online at EoD with trains like that, uh, xino doesn't die :P.

18 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

Here Illwei votes for TUN for absolutely no reason, but TUN has voted for Mat. Araris votes for Mat several hours later. Here Illwei votes for Araris immediately after TUN unvotes Mat. (It was exactly 23 minutes between the posts, but there are no other posts between.) I would also like to hear her reasoning for why TUN and Mat are never on the same team. It was such a random thing to say.

1. Votes without a reason are NAI for Illwei, Stick mentioned as much last turn
2. e/e or v/v or e/v pairings are also Illwei's thing-- and the last time she made those on D1 they had like an 80% accuracy rate or something crazy like that, and trust me, there was a reason for it. 

21 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

Here Illwei unvotes Mat an hour after she had voted him because he posted about his current reads. Hence the distancing thing, there was no sting behind the vote. Also, in that post by Mat, he puts Illwei at the top for "vibe" and while I don't discourage reading someone's vibe, putting them at the top of your list because of that reason is pretty strong.

Idk what you want me to do on D1. No ability for VC analysis and there were at most 3-4 posts per person. Vibes is like, all I got.

23 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

I've already stated that I believe it was a distancing tactic which would make sense if your e/e. Why would Xino and you voting for Kas put you on a team with him? That seems a little forced. Although, I do admit that there wasn't a lot of time between all of the posts. That could be due to an inability to communicate with the each other in the doc as you are trying to cover up the mess that happened at the EoD and stepping on each other's toes with your posts. 

Also known as: zero time

Again, if the three elims are the only people in thread there'd be no toe stepping because there'd be no village pressure to do so.

As for the first lines of this, I think it's funny you think xino was thinking about distancing while he was voting with like ninety seconds left before he died. He was thinking of survival and nothing more, as evidenced by his switching to whoever he thought was the top train. I'm only evil with Kas because if xino is ending on v!Kas then he isn't going to vote e!me first, and I know you keep thinking this is distancing but again xino voted at 7:59. That'd be a weird time to start distancing. Real weird. He got online with the intention only to live.

29 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

It's fair that you probably would've gotten off sooner, but Araris didn't vote change from Stick to Araris until an hour before rollover. Not giving you a lot of time to react and try to switch the wagon. 

That leaves forty unaccounted for minutes, and I was aware of the thread during that time even if I didn't. And like. That's actually more evidence to my point, not less. Easier to abandon the train while it's slow, and yet I didn't.

31 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

I completely forgot to mention Illwei's plan to keep Mat alive as long as possible as she has stated today. That is more of a stretch though because that ties them together pretty strongly. Still, I could see Illwei getting out of it if she wanted to. 

You talk about how much Illwei/xino/me would have to be distancing yet almost all of your evidence points to us being terrible at it  Your whole case is tinfoiled and I understand that, but before you try kill the two people who hammered the elim at the end maybe look at the people who didn't.

One thing about this is I really don't think e!you tries to push this angle so I'm happy v reading you right now.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Yeah, the biggest thing from D1 seems to be that the elims have little to no thread control.

[Ashbringer he/him]

Turn ends in ~ half an hour!

[Conquestor he/him]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

So let me get this straight:

You think xino's teammates chose to bus him to heck while being the only ones online at EoD. You think, even though they likely had the vote power to save him (and reads that fit together enough to both vote Kas or both vote Shqueeves, or literally anyone else) they opted not to. And you think the double-ninja reaction votes towards xino's vote on me is somehow e/e/e?

Just making that clear. Because I can see how you can push one of us, but thinking it's both is kind of absurd :P. If the entire elim team are the only ones online at EoD with trains like that, uh, xino doesn't die :P.

1. Votes without a reason are NAI for Illwei, Stick mentioned as much last turn
2. e/e or v/v or e/v pairings are also Illwei's thing-- and the last time she made those on D1 they had like an 80% accuracy rate or something crazy like that, and trust me, there was a reason for it. 

Idk what you want me to do on D1. No ability for VC analysis and there were at most 3-4 posts per person. Vibes is like, all I got.

Also known as: zero time

Again, if the three elims are the only people in thread there'd be no toe stepping because there'd be no village pressure to do so.

As for the first lines of this, I think it's funny you think xino was thinking about distancing while he was voting with like ninety seconds left before he died. He was thinking of survival and nothing more, as evidenced by his switching to whoever he thought was the top train. I'm only evil with Kas because if xino is ending on v!Kas then he isn't going to vote e!me first, and I know you keep thinking this is distancing but again xino voted at 7:59. That'd be a weird time to start distancing. Real weird. He got online with the intention only to live.

That leaves forty unaccounted for minutes, and I was aware of the thread during that time even if I didn't. And like. That's actually more evidence to my point, not less. Easier to abandon the train while it's slow, and yet I didn't.

You talk about how much Illwei/xino/me would have to be distancing yet almost all of your evidence points to us being terrible at it  Your whole case is tinfoiled and I understand that, but before you try kill the two people who hammered the elim at the end maybe look at the people who didn't.

One thing about this is I really don't think e!you tries to push this angle so I'm happy v reading you right now.

Agree to disagree. One thing I think we can agree on is that I am probably tinfoiling... it's the best thing I've got going on right now though. I wasn't able to find anything else that really sticks out to me from D1. Like you said yourself, there wasn't a lot going on at the time. I'll be honest, I know it's a pretty out their theory and I could get more into it, but I've detailed it quite a bit already and so I'll be questioning you and Illwei in the coming cycles. I will be conducting other investigations, however.

[Ashbringer he/him]

That's the turn! Rollover shortly.

[Ashbringer he/him]

LG89 Day 2: Kandra's Blood

Kandra don't really bleed. They can, if they're usually doing it for show. Kandra can survive all kinds of mutilations, you see.

ArVaal, though... the Thirds had used acid. It could melt through their skin in a way that wouldn't regenerate. When the group had found him there wasn't much left. Just bones, two spikes, and the fragments that made up the real kandra's blood.

You couldn't accidentally kill a kandra that way. It just didn't happen.

This was war.

 

Araris Valerian was killed! They were a member of the Second Generation with a Blessing of Presence!

 

The turn will end at 8:00 PM PDT (or 10:00 PM CDT) on Thursday, September 22nd.

 

Player List:

Spoiler

1. @Matrim's Dice - MaTriim
2. @The Unknown Novel - NoVeel
3. @The Wandering Wizard - WiiZaad
4. @_Stick_ - Stiiik
5. @Shqueeves - WalDo
6. Araris Valerian - ArVaal - Second Generation, Blessing of Presence
7. xinoehp512 - NottIt - Third Generation, Blessing of Potency
8. @Conquestor - ConQuis
9. @Shining Silhouette - Taazzel
10. @SymphonianBookworm - Zanaria
11. @Kasimir - KeSaam
12. @Turtle - TurTaal
13. @JNV - JenVee
14. @Illwei - IllWei

 

[Mat he/him]

I’d have said that me or Illwei dying further clears Conq in my eyes, but since that didn’t happen idk if it should be reversed the other way. Probably not since this is a big IKYK anyway.

More analysis and things tomorrow but I’m not surprised about that kill or that flip.

[---]

Haha wow....the elims thought my reads have merit and influence 

[Conquestor he/him]

Mat. Man, they chose the worst person possible. I mean, Araris makes sense since most people vil read them, but I wish they chose someone else so I could get some new info.

@The Unknown Novel What do you think of what happened D1? You showed up and disappeared just as quickly. Also, why did you have no concern for the votes that were on you during the first part of day?

@Kasimir You had your vote on Mat based off of his attack on you. Is there a particular reason that you left your vote on him until the EoD? What's your read on people now?

@_Stick_ I honestly don't know what to think about you, so hearing about your current reads would be nice.

@The Wandering Wizard You made a self preservation vote last cycle, but I feel like you didn't do much else. Are you e leaning anyone currently and why?

@Shqueeves I don't know what to think about you either... Why didn't you have a vote in at the end of cycle and what are your thoughts on Illwei and Mat e leaning you at the EoD last cycle?

@JNV Why did you end up voting for Stick out of everyone? 

[The Unknown Order he/him]

1 minute ago, Conquestor said:

The Unknown Novel What do you think of what happened D1? You showed up and disappeared just as quickly. Also, why did you have no concern for the votes that were on you during the first part of day

I had votes on me? Other than you?

Because I was pretty busy with football, and I didn't get the feeling that anyone really even half agreed with you, which is kinda unusual. 

Honestly, I need to read it again, cause I skimmed a lot of the later stuff. 

[Kasimir he/him]

1 hour ago, Conquestor said:

Mat. Man, they chose the worst person possible. I mean, Araris makes sense since most people vil read them, but I wish they chose someone else so I could get some new info.

That's why they did it. Why give the Village new info?

But it's actually also an interesting kill choice, because:

1. Mat

2. Exhibit A

3 hours ago, Illwei said:

Haha wow....the elims thought my reads have merit and influence 

We know it's obviously a 3-4 player team, but I'm interested because Araris is not often an early kill, even I think when he does actually play well. CBA to actually go read the rest of D1/N1, so some things I picked off skimming:

-Expecting a slightly unusual Elim team -> players like to leave Araris alive to soak suspicion because he's got that sort of trustable face (?) -> why not in this case?
-Illwei's reads are not always widely shared. Illwei is not a very communicative player (nice that Mat considers it NAI for Illwei to vote without giving reasons but persistently expects everyone else to  ) -> Elims intimidated by Illwei or unfamiliar with Illwei meta?
-How globally shared is the Araris exoneration? (Nfc, CBA to check.)
-Araris kill is still odd in that it's a different sort of low info kill doctrine -> low info kills tend to go quiet players. Potential sparing of newer players? Someone who manages to consider Araris a threat?

It's not too useful but this is pointing me towards the different faces on the roster at the moment. The last time I recall (and I grant I don't play often enough to have a stronger recollection) an Araris early NK was in another Ash LG, and the Elim team was <Archer, JNV, Shadow, Illwei.> Both Archer and Illwei were dead by then so the kill decision was made by Shadow and JNV. I don't know JNV's kill doctrine by now, though I've GMed E!them once. But think Shadow made the kill call and it's telling.

1 hour ago, Conquestor said:

@Kasimir You had your vote on Mat based off of his attack on you. Is there a particular reason that you left your vote on him until the EoD? What's your read on people now?

I had my vote on Mat because I wanted to put a bit of pressure on him and I wanted to keep the vote slate broad. I felt his suspicions were generic test balloon sorts, and did not like them, and had a bit of a gut ping over them. (I'll admit there's a slightly meta reason too, and that has to do with Mat's comments about his reads accuracy on me, to the point I have now decided to test them everytime it's clear he's got an intuitively incorrect read, whether it is E!Mat pushing, or V!Mat is just overconfident about his ability to read me. FWIW, I think it's clearly not a bi-conditional.) 

I left my vote on him until EoD because I didn't get back to the game. I've said it once and I'll say it again: RL things came up and I don't really have the motivation to stay engaged with this game anymore. That's also why I went MIA near the later part of C1. I CBA to ask for a pinch-hitter. As Mourinho says, if I say more, I am in big trouble, because people will try to make meta reads from this about me so all I'm saying is: no mood/motivation, did not gaf, still dngaf. I am refusing to blue this because I have principled grounds for disliking blue, y'all can take it or leave it or lynch me, I honestly couldn't care less.

If I do get lynched, take a look within two groups after I flip:

A. Who is pushing it? Elims likely to nudge it - possibly raw opportunism after Xino's vote.
B. Who is deliberately standing clear? Elims know it is a bad train, and likely do not want to be deeply implicated, nor will they let the whole team go down the same hole.

As I said, I dgaf but go relook at these two profiles after I flip.

My current read on Mat is I am refusing to give a read on Mat because I cannot be neutral on Mat at this point in time, finding his arguments far too disingenuous. Ok, I'll be fair - I don't think a N1 Araris kill is in Mat's kill meta, even if Mat has learned a respect for Araris by now. Especially with Mat D2ing Araris because Araris was AFK - it just feels like an odd kill for E!Mat to gun for when there's a variety of targets, e.g. Illwei. Maybe not I guess since you could be off the table, but eehhhhh. There's also the bit where it's odd for Xino to want to self-pres on Mat before me. So yeah, no. Probably light V.

Slight V lean on Wiz - doubt Xino would opportunistically park second vote on a teammate just like that on volatile D1. Slight V lean on Illwei but this is from skimming rather than deep engagement and I'd never not be careful about reading Illwei. 

Slightly more conflicted about whether to read you V or not. I see where Mat is coming from, but I also recalled from the MR that some of your mentioned Elim doctrine seems rather perpendicular to mine, so I am just not sure "This is too ballsy for an Elim" is where I'd go for you. 

No real opinion on anyone not mentioned. 

Let's be real, I could do vote progression analysis to actually be helpful and develop suspicions. I don't care to. So I'm not going to. That's just how it's going to be.

Edited September 21, 2022 by Kasimir

[Mat he/him]

6 hours ago, Conquestor said:

Mat. Man, they chose the worst person possible. I mean, Araris makes sense since most people vil read them, but I wish they chose someone else so I could get some new info.

Araris is basically the worst person for me to have killed. He was one of my biggest supporters, saying I should be the top village read multiple times. That was his main D1 takeaway.

The only worse option for e!me is Illwei, and that might have actually been better than Araris for e!me since a green Illwei flip (I’m working under the assumption that Illwei is village) discredits your theory further and maybe gives me an easier time.

e!me doesn’t kill Araris, for any reason. And “So that you can say that” isn’t a viable reason, so don’t try to argue it  At that point, if it’s your first thought, you’re just tunnelling

Edit: Also, I’m not going to N1 Araris when my D1 stance was “not going to exe because I pushed so hard on him while elim”. You think I say that only to wipe him out in the Night? I have way more respect for him than that.

I also see now that I’m reading Kas’ post that he sorta got here before I did but let this be a more complete look at why, I guess :P.

Edited September 21, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

7 hours ago, Conquestor said:

@The Wandering Wizard You made a self preservation vote last cycle, but I feel like you didn't do much else. Are you e leaning anyone currently and why?

It was partially self preservation, but also to break the ties up, as I thought Araris was the best choice of not very good choices and I later retracted it to maybe put out another vote, but decided against voting again.

Currently leaning Elim on Stick.

Stick, partly her D1 votes and partly vibes. 

Edit: I'm only partially convinced of e!Stick as of right now.

Edited September 21, 2022 by The Wandering Wizard

[Stick. she/her]

Before Shining placed their vote on xino, the votes looked like this:

Wiz(1): Mat
Mat(1): TUN, Araris
Stick(1): Kas
TUN(1): illwei

I think it's possible that it their vote was originally meant to be a harmless distancing vote but as things escalated:

Quote

if I just took my vote off and didn't put it on someone than if E!Xino I'm dead cause I'm suspected of helping a teammate.

this reasoning assumes they knew xino's flip before the flip even happened. (quote from last turn)

On the other hand I do feel good about Wiz because of their Araris vote retraction. Pre-retraction, the leading exe was Araris with 3 votes (with xino and I following-up with 2 votes each). So if wiz had kept their vote on Araris, xino would've been safe but their retraction brought it down to 2-2-2.

 

Quote

 

• Matrim's Dice (2): Kasimir, Illwei
• _Stick_ (2): Araris Valerian, JNV
• xinoehp512 (2): Matrim's Dice, Shining Silhouette
• The Wandering Wizard (1): xinoehp512
• Araris Valerian (1): _Stick_
• The Unknown Novel (1): Conquestor

So leaning village there.

After this, illwei retracted off Mat and Araris switched to xino, turning it to 3-1-1-1-1-1. Araris was arguably the pivotal vote there - admittedly, if I were evil I'd probably try to push the 'Araris loves bussing teammates' narrative so I agree that the kill choice there is mildly surprising. Only mildly, because Araris' vote switch was kinda crucial there. I actually very much hate the fact that we don't get PMs cuz there clearly isn't much action coordination going on and I deliberately did not speak of Araris last turn so that the elims don't go after him with the kill for being 'cleared'.

[Conquestor he/him]

@Kasimir Oh! I don't want to kill you, I was just trying to get your point of view on Mat so I could diversify my view on him. I've already said I'm v reading you. I get that life can get busy, don't worry about that, I was just wondering if there was an in game reason for the vote staying on until EoD. 

@Matrim's Dice I could argue, but that would just be a waste of time. I've already detailed, quite well, why I am voting for you. To make sure that I don't tinfoil on you, I am trying to get some other reads. Of course, if I feel like you do something elimmy in the future, I'm not going to hesitate to point it out. Until I find someone I E lean more though, I'm leaving my vote on you.

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

Before Shining placed their vote on xino, the votes looked like this:

Wiz(1): Mat
Mat(1): TUN, Araris
Stick(1): Kas
TUN(1): illwei

I think it's possible that it their vote was originally meant to be a harmless distancing vote but as things escalated:

this reasoning assumes they knew xino's flip before the flip even happened. (quote from last turn)

On the other hand I do feel good about Wiz because of their Araris vote retraction. Pre-retraction, the leading exe was Araris with 3 votes (with xino and I following-up with 2 votes each). So if wiz had kept their vote on Araris, xino would've been safe but their retraction brought it down to 2-2-2.

Hmmmmm, now that is an interesting catch! I'm excited to see where that leads. It does seem strange that Shining implied they would immediately get exed for switching off of Xino. Although, it could be a hindsight thing, so I would like to hear a response from them.

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

admittedly, if I were evil I'd probably try to push the 'Araris loves bussing teammates' narrative so I agree that the kill choice there is mildly surprising

This is actually surprising to me, because you're one of the remaining few players I could definitively see pulling off an early Araris kill :eyes:

10 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I actually very much hate the fact that we don't get PMs

12 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

• Matrim's Dice (2): Kasimir, Illwei
• _Stick_ (2): Araris Valerian, JNV
• xinoehp512 (2): Matrim's Dice, Shining Silhouette
• The Wandering Wizard (1): xinoehp512
• Araris Valerian (1): _Stick_
• The Unknown Novel (1): Conquestor

I don't understand where the Wiz vote is here, and I don't bloody know if I want to go and look at it I don't want to I don't want to but it's bugging me.

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

The only worse option for e!me is Illwei, and that might have actually been better than Araris for e!me since a green Illwei flip (I’m working under the assumption that Illwei is village) discredits your theory further and maybe gives me an easier time.

The correct option for E!you is Illwei at some point anyway because she will re-eval, thank you.

E!you more or less secures thread control sans Illwei - Araris doesn't play aggressive thread control though I think he's doing that more this game, but would have less without Illwei to bounce off.

Ah ffs.

Quote

Wiz (1): Mat
Mat (2): TUN, Araris
Stick (1): Kas
TUN (1): Illwei
Xino (1): Silho

Unremarkable up to this point. Silho's naked vote on xino - poke vote? Potential distancing? Check - E!Silho tends to have low engagement, vote stability.

Conq votes TUN for tying the votes and ties the votes in the process. Enough said.

Quote

Wiz (1): Mat
Mat (2): TUN, Araris
Stick (1): Kas
TUN (2): Illwei, Conq
Xino (1): Silho

Xino shows up to vote Wiz. Mentions slight sus of TUN but doesn't go deeper and sort of waters it down - potential distancing? Dunno. TUN.

Quote

Wiz (2): Mat, Xino
Mat (2): TUN, Araris
Stick (1): Kas
TUN (2): Illwei, Conq
Xino (1): Silho

Side-note: very fractional Village points to Mat off this as well. I know Mat disagrees with this, but I dgaf - I don't consider it too likely for Xino to stack onto a teammate's vote. And he's not the kind of metamesser I'd be concerned is playing into this.

This ties Wiz, Mat, and TUN. So he kind of has a bit of a slight sus of TUN:

On 9/19/2022 at 4:27 AM, xinoehp512 said:

Standard reminder ties are of the eliminators yadda yadda yadda I'm sure this is nothing new. Maybe slight sus towards TUN for his attitude towards ties but it was the second post in the cycle he didn't exactly have much of a choice. :P.

Half takes it back, and then votes on another train other than TUN, further diluting the votes and making the tie even more stable. Slight ??? of TUN here from Xino's attitude - I don't consider it as damning as vote dilution but I think it's definitely a bit more friendly to TUN than I'd expect off his comments. TUN for now I guess I can change it or roll a die for it later on.

Quote

Wiz (2): Mat, Xino
Mat (1): Araris
Stick (1): Kas
TUN (2): Illwei, Conq
Xino (1): Silho

TUN unvotes. It's a tie between TUN and Wiz. Okay, you know what, TUN, sorry TUN. Struggling to see E!TUN take a vote back and then just not do anything when he's on the chopping block or in danger of it, given vote volatility.

Illwei goes for Araris:

Quote

Wiz (2): Mat, Xino
Mat (1): Araris
Stick (1): Kas
TUN (1): Conq
Xino (1): Silho
Araris (1): Illwei

This returns Wiz to being the lead train. Guess TUN would be comfortable with doing so if it were a TUN-Illwei team. But that feels a bit too paranoid right now. Araris then swaps to Stick:

Quote

Wiz (2): Mat, Xino
Stick (2): Kas, Araris
TUN (1): Conq
Xino (1): Silho
Araris (1): Illwei

Which ties off Stick and Wiz. Stick then votes Araris for tonal reasons, so three-way tie.

Quote

Wiz (2): Mat, Xino
Stick (2): Kas, Araris
TUN (1): Conq
Xino (1): Silho
Araris (2): Illwei, Stick

Shqueeves votes for Conq. Presumably has vote fabrication in mind. The key movement there IMO is Wiz hopping to Araris, as Stick points out, putting a Villager in the lead.

Quote

Wiz (2): Mat, Xino
Stick (2): Kas, Araris
TUN (1): Conq
Xino (1): Silho
Araris (3): Illwei, Stick, Wiz
Conq (1): Shqueeves

This breaks a three-way Wiz-Stick-Araris tie. I move off Stick and go onto Mat, so it becomes just Wiz in contention with Araris.

Quote

Wiz (2): Mat, Xino
Stick (1): Araris
TUN (1): Conq
Xino (1): Silho
Araris (3): Illwei, Stick, Wiz
Conq (1): Shqueeves
Mat (1): Kas

Shqueeves then retracts from Conq. I don't know - I feel like E!Shqueeves could still leave the vote there because Conq wasn't in danger of death. But retracting quickly to a challenge from Araris and Stick after having defended the necessity of the vote feels odd. Potential E!sensitivity?

Note that Xino recognises there are two votes on Stick but doesn't recognise Araris is on Stick. Not confident of making a read off this.

@Conquestor - Why still TUN at that point, if you were conditionally willing to think Stick was Evil?

Quote

Wiz (1): Xino
Stick (2): Araris, JNV
TUN (1): Conq
Xino (2): Silho, Mat
Araris (3): Illwei, Stick, Wiz
Mat (1): Kas

Mat joins the Xino train. I would argue that given vote volatility, it would be very bold for E!Mat to stick a vote on Xino like that, especially as Illwei pointed out, Xino is a oneshot Coinshot. So yes, sigh, all aboard Team V!Mat train, choo choo.

I could maybe see the JNV vote as being a bit odd. Because if you're an Elim, it's late in the cycle, and you're mildly worried about Xino and volatility, then the best place to go is to pad a side-train and bring it into contention.

Quote

Wiz (1): Xino
Stick (2): Araris, JNV
TUN (1): Conq
Xino (2): Silho, Mat
Araris (1): Stick
Mat (2): Kas, Illwei

Illwei goes off Araris and onto Mat because Mat jumping on Wiz. Not sure if Illwei read or if something fishy here - Mat said he was trying to bait jump-ons and it didn't work. Mild ? at this. We now have a four-way tie. Will say that this is moving off a Villager and it feels a bit off for E!Illwei to do this - could leave the padding vote to keep Xino safe without reproach. So that's V-ish to me, in a very backward sort of way. I think it's fair to assume Xino's role is valuable enough they'd like to try not to lose Xino in the first night. (Unless this is a deliberate bus which I really don't want to think about now, because who would bus the Coinshot to gain trust, amirite >> Paranoia sod off.)

I can sort of see Wiz withdrawing off Araris in both lights, here. Xino willing to park on Wiz makes me think unlikely distancing. At the same time, feel Wiz could also have left the vote without reproach. Doesn't seem like Wiz was particularly challenged over the vote, either. Think the side-train point is weaker here because there are already four side-trains at this point, though Wiz's willingness to not vote at all is maybe good.

Yay overthinking on scant evidence!

Illwei does in fact not read Mat's point and okay fine I have more respect for E!Illwei than to assume it was deliberate, so she probably missed it.

Quote

Wiz (1): Xino
Stick (2): Araris, JNV
TUN (1): Conq
Xino (2): Silho, Mat
Araris (1): Stick
Mat (1): Kas

Removes Mat from contention, so Stick and Xino are in the lead. Again, feels a bit more risk than reward though I presume Illwei will vote elsewhere later but I don't actually know right now because it's the first time I'm forcing myself to read this.

Araris goes onto Xino and retracts off Stick. (!!!!)

Quote

Wiz (1): Xino
Stick (1): JNV
TUN (1): Conq
Xino (3): Silho, Mat, Araris
Araris (1): Stick
Mat (1): Kas

At 1028hrs, Conq unvotes TUN and votes Xino to secure the lynch. I guess that's okay, but one thing going off in my head is: save or bus? If Xino's role is that valuable, why is there no save? Was this the point at which there was a committed bus? I don't feel particularly strongly or badly I guess. I could see E!Conq stacking up elsewhere, but ehh. Also can see this being the bus point. Returning to this subsequently - I hesitate to say bus. It feels like a really momentous decision if Conq can't be on for EoD, given volatility. Leaving a fourth vote on TUN feels kind of irresponsible, and Xino would've been saveable potentially. Lean V on Conq?

Illwei goes onto Shqueeves which is basically a side-train.

Mat goes onto me. Also side-train.

This is where there's apparently shenanigans where Xino's vote was on Mat, and then on me.

Ok here's the thing. Here's the state of the votes when this happens:

Quote

Stick (1): JNV
Xino (3): Silho, Araris, Conq
Araris (1): Stick
Mat (2): Kas, Xino
Shqueeves (1): Illwei
Kas (1): Mat

At 2 minutes to rollover, Xino votes Mat (I'm guessing, original post timestamp is 1058hrs.)

Mat is a very curious pick to me. Illwei went off Mat and Mat would basically never vote Mat. Picking Mat is alienating one of the two players left. @Conquestor if you're smoking tinfoil, this is the one place I don't understand. You're a desperate dying Elim Coinshot at EoD. V!Mat would never self-vote, and has the potential to self-pres against you because he's actually on, sealing your death. Why for the love of all things holy do you pick Mat first?

Presume that motivates the panic switch to me.

At the one minute mark, both Illwei and Mat switch to Xino, so:

Quote

Stick (1): JNV
Xino (5): Silho, Araris, Conq, Illwei, Mat
Araris (1): Stick
Mat (1): Kas
Kas (1): Xino

Bus, or the team is just not on? I feel like the bus calculus is not actually too unreasonable: unless Illwei and Mat are teamed (unlikely, lean V on Mat), then Illwei has to know that Mat is active and on at EoD and able to vote elsewhere. I don't see any train that could practicably save Xino unless Illwei has vote manip - suppose they vote on Araris, Stick, or Mat. The Mat vote would rile Mat up, and probably V!Mat is smart enough to scent foul play if there's a coordinated vote on another train with Xino and someone else. 4-3 still gets Xino killed and voting late with Xino just looks sus as all hell. So IDK.

Still okay with V reading Mat for kill meta, but I'm at a loss as to why Xino votes Mat. 

Note that I am not sure this deviates too far from distro wisdom, as it is a one-shot kill, and we already lost a one-shot protect as well. Not sure.

Ah, soddit. Never again. This game is like a bad relationship complete with rebound.

JNV, as Shining already has a vote for the moment. Currently do not have Mat or Wiz on the table. Unsure what to think of Illwei because of bus hypothesis. But ok let's try this:

Quote

Stick (1): JNV
Xino (5): Silho, Araris, Conq, Illwei, Mat
Araris (1): Stick
Mat (1): Kas
Kas (1): Xino
Nope (5): Turtle, Shqueeves, TUN, Symph, Wiz

I am becoming a bit uncomfortable with how Wiz and TUN and Shqueeves feel like apathy clears to me in my current line of thinking. Apathy clears don't feel very robust when we're either looking at a bus or a lack of thread control, therefore no ability to resist. 

Coloured based on where my thoughts are at the moment. Agree with assessments Silho feels like a potential distancing vote gone awry - at the time Silho last posted, it was still possible for Xino to self-pres. The question IMO is where Xino's teammates might be hiding. 

Option A: Xino Train

Where I'm at right now, it's down to Illwei or Silho. Lean Silho a bit more than Illwei.

Option B: Side Train

Stick, JNV, and myself. I'm not going to bother pushing for myself. Stick does have a vote on a confirmed Villager that more or less stayed there for - as JNV pointed out - a bit ?, which is both no reasoning and overexplaining at the same time. I guess between JNV and Stick, theoretically I'd go with Stick a bit over JNV because JNV actually pointed it out, but it feels like a cointoss in my head, and IDK but I don't really have any positive read on JNV whatsoever (or much of a read, simpliciter). Stick kind of feels like normal Stick but I can't remember playing E!Stick before, so ???. Anyway, it's early enough. So I guess my vote is staying on JNV for now.

Option C: Non-Voters

Symph - main reason I CBA over the pinch-hitter. Departure from how Symph played the QF, but Symph pointed out she's busy. No strong read on TUN, I guess. The vote withdrawal point stands but it was also early in the cycle. If I were forced to it, probably lean V at this juncture. Which means I'm left to look at <Turtle, Shqueeves.>

Between Turtle and Shqueeves, I'd probably go Shqueeves, but it feels a bit like a derp clear. Turtle's N1 post doesn't really seem to say anything concrete - but not actually recognising that Araris's vote strongly clears him is bold for an Elim (hi, Silho ) but also feels at odds with the Elim strategy - there's no real need to do that if you're going to shoot Araris anyway.

6 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

@Kasimir Oh! I don't want to kill you, I was just trying to get your point of view on Mat so I could diversify my view on him. I've already said I'm v reading you. I get that life can get busy, don't worry about that, I was just wondering if there was an in game reason for the vote staying on until EoD. 

Am aware, dwai. I just want to make my position clear before I keep getting asked to justify changes or otherwise in my playstyle, which is: ok, lynch me if you need to get it out of your system, just do the vote analysis after that because I CBA.

Ni su'cuyi, gar kyr'adyc, ni partayli, gar darasuum, Araris.

[Mat he/him]

16 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

@Matrim's Dice I could argue, but that would just be a waste of time. I've already detailed, quite well, why I am voting for you. To make sure that I don't tinfoil on you, I am trying to get some other reads. Of course, if I feel like you do something elimmy in the future, I'm not going to hesitate to point it out. Until I find someone I E lean more though, I'm leaving my vote on you.

And I've detailed quite well why you shouldn't be  The last two times of which you've brushed off without a comment on them. If you're not going to reconsider that's one thing I guess but I can't imagine what I'm saying doesn't make sense to you in some capacity.

--

Willing to move Kas further back in my PoE, he's progressively read more normal to me than his opening posts did and the xino weirdness is weird, not incriminating, so I'm looking at [JNV, Shining, Shqueeves] as my PoE with [Stick, Kas] as secondaries (at least until someone tells me why Stick isn't in anyone's PoE that I can tell) and [Turtle, Bookworm] as low/inactives. My reads have suddenly aligned with Kas' and I don't know how to feel about that  

I don't know Conq's elim play at all so what Kas said earlier gives me some pause but I'm still willing to v read him off this push. The way xino treated TUN and Wiz is enough to get them out of my PoE for now, and I do think Illwei's C1 play is decently clearing but I'm not dead set on it by any means (grumbles in LG74) (is this where she apologizes to Vapor?) and I guess that's everyone.

I'll tag and pressure @JNV JNV, where are you at? How've you been? Thoughts on the C1 voting and the flips?

Also:

9 hours ago, Kasimir said:

(nice that Mat considers it NAI for Illwei to vote without giving reasons but persistently expects everyone else to  )

I've learned that if I ask Illwei I probably won't get an answer. If I ask you I'm more likely to get one :P.

[---]

I don't even know what people think I haven't adressed about my suspicions

Ask about my reads and you shall recieve, because I thought I already put everything out there yesterday.

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

3 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Before Shining placed their vote on xino, the votes looked like this:

Wiz(1): Mat
Mat(1): TUN, Araris
Stick(1): Kas
TUN(1): illwei

I think it's possible that it their vote was originally meant to be a harmless distancing vote but as things escalated:

this reasoning assumes they knew xino's flip before the flip even happened. (quote from last turn)

1 hour ago, Conquestor said:

Hmmmmm, now that is an interesting catch! I'm excited to see where that leads. It does seem strange that Shining implied they would immediately get exed for switching off of Xino. Although, it could be a hindsight thing, so I would like to hear a response from them.

Yeah. I don't know.

When I first saw that Xino had flipped red, I just assumed that it was good that I kept my vote on him as I was considering changing it the turn before. And then I checked the thread later and it was a bad thing apparently? I just figured that E!Me would have changed my vote just to give my teammate a chance, so it might have been seen as suspicious. But I guess having my vote on the Xino train at any point in time makes me a candidate and I understand that.

Is that a JNV train I see starting?

[Mat he/him]

Just now, Shining Silhouette said:

Is that a JNV train I see starting?

What would that mean if it was?

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

9 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

What would that mean if it was?

It would mean that I've successfully skimmed the thread

Kinda wanted to say something but didn't have much to say :P.

11 hours ago, Kasimir said:

We know it's obviously a 3-4 player team

How do we know this?

[Stick. she/her]

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I don't understand where the Wiz vote is here, and I don't bloody know if I want to go and look at it I don't want to I don't want to but it's bugging me.

Yeah no turns out I was using the the wrong (and erroneous) vote count as my main reference that didn't take illwei's switch into account. Below is the actual state of the vote count right before Wiz unvoted Araris:

Quote

• Araris Valerian (2): _Stick_, The Wandering Wizard
• The Wandering Wizard (1): xinoehp512
• Matrim's Dice (2): Kasimir, illwei
• _Stick_ (2): Araris Valerian, JNV
• The Unknown Novel (1): Conquestor
• xinoehp512 (2): Shining Silhouette, Matrim's Dice

So Wiz unvoting did indeed bring it down to 2-2-2 between Mat, xino, and myself. But my village read of Wiz was based on Araris having three votes, not two. But now that's faulty reasoning, so that read doesn't hold anymore. What's interesting enough to note is that Wiz's retraction closely followed illwei's (2 minutes later, to be specific). @The Wandering Wizard did your retraction have anything to do with illwei's vote switch? Though all things considered, I would actually still put Wiz down as mild village because I agree with Kas that the whole thing with xino's vote on them seems a bit too risky to be a distancing tactic.

I keep circling back to possible e!vote-manip powers that could've been integrated into the elims D1 game-plan. Our inability to anticipate things like that is bound to lead us to big assumptions like how 'close' the votes ever really were. @Illwei @Matrim's Dice was anybody seen lurking during EoD apart from xino?

JNV's made a single post and it looks huge but reading it thrice tells me there's nothing really much substantial in it (note: Slight defence in Mat's favour). Also sidenote their interpretation of my reasoning for the Araris vote is just wrong lol. I never got around to responding to that, but I no never said explaining things was bad, just that the explanation for the explanation was unnecessary. Here's the vote count after JNV's vote:

Quote

• Araris Valerian (3): _Stick_, Illwei, The Wandering Wizard
• The Wandering Wizard (2): Matrim's Dice, xinoehp512
• Matrim's Dice (1): Kasimir
• _Stick_ (2): Araris Valerian, JNV
• The Unknown Novel (1): Conquestor
• xinoehp512 (2): Shining Silhouette, Matrim's Dice

Depending on when exactly JNV started typing up that post, Kas' vote might've still been on me at that time. I can definitely see how this vote looks opportunistic. @JNV was Kas' vote change a ninja?