Long Game 89: Blessings of Metal

[Mat he/him]

4 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I keep circling back to possible e!vote-manip powers that could've been integrated into the elims D1 game-plan. Our inability to anticipate things like that is bound to lead us to big assumptions like how 'close' the votes ever really were. @Illwei @Matrim's Dice was anybody seen lurking during EoD apart from xino?

I don't think so, but I was on mobile and was paying attention to the posts so I might have missed something. No one posted at least, but you can see that for yourself :P.

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

What's interesting enough to note is that Wiz's retraction closely followed illwei's (2 minutes later, to be specific). @The Wandering Wizard did your retraction have anything to do with illwei's vote switch?

I had already decided to remove my vote from Araris before Illwei posted. And it was 32 minutes not 2 minutes, I checked :p.

[Kasimir he/him]

1 hour ago, Shining Silhouette said:

How do we know this?

The short answer: GMing experience.

The less cheeky answer: 20-25% is the normal proportion for an Elim team. Ordinarily, if Xino were a full Coinshot, I'd lean 'team of three', maybe two depending on balance considerations. But Xino gets a oneshot kill and that's it, so I don't really know it changes things all that much. There were no other kills last night and protects should've been written up. I'd expect the Elims to kill off the bat if they had any other oneshots, so it was probably just Xino. I'm aware some people at Night (CBA to reread not sorry) are leaning smaller than that, but I don't think so. It's too narrow a margin and a oneshot isn't strong enough to justify a team of two.

I'll revise my assessment if it turns out like half this game has protection powers, but in the absence of that, based on the roles we know so far, 3-4 in total, lean three.

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

Yeah no turns out I was using the the wrong (and erroneous) vote count as my main reference that didn't take illwei's switch into account. Below is the actual state of the vote count right before Wiz unvoted Araris:

Does E!Stick actually not know the vote count.

I feel like E!Stick should be more aware of the vote count given that cycle endangered at least Xino.

Why must you make me doubt my doubt of you >>

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

I would actually still put Wiz down as mild village because I agree with Kas that the whole thing with xino's vote on them seems a bit too risky to be a distancing tactic.

I would agree/emphasise mild in that Xino was on afterwards so clearly could have retracted if necessary, but circumstantially, does not feel like a good vote if E!Wiz, no.

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

I keep circling back to possible e!vote-manip powers that could've been integrated into the elims D1 game-plan. Our inability to anticipate things like that is bound to lead us to big assumptions like how 'close' the votes ever really were. @Illwei @Matrim's Dice was anybody seen lurking during EoD apart from xino?

Ok, but how so? Those powers are one-shot as well, meaning that the Elims would have had to decide whether it was worth employing or not. If we speculate team of three or four, how many vote manip powers are you postulating? I think the most Ash can give them is two - in a game of this size, vote manip accelerates the end quite a bit, if they save it up. Again, I accept it's weaker because it's a oneshot, but.

And ngl but if you save Xino by burning 2-3 vote manips, Xino does make the extra kill but more or less gets murdered the next day. Don't forget this is the only vote manip blessing:

On 9/13/2022 at 0:35 PM, Ashbringer said:

• Blessing of Stability: Your emotional stability lets you convince others of your honesty. Once per game, during the Day, you can change another player's vote to match your vote. 

Saving Private Xino becomes Killing The Elim Team. Using more than one vote manip risks unnecessary exposure. I wouldn't consider it a fair trade at all - it's team seppuku, and bloody expensive, even for an extra kill.

The end train was five votes. If you suppose one of Illwei and Mat is Evil, Xino voting on one of the side trains gets you 3-4 (the Villager in <Illwei, Mat> likely votes on the Xino train given concerted movement with Xino and someone else in a game without PMs.) To tie or kill someone else, the Villager in <Illwei, Mat> needs vote manip. Then you can get 4-3. Or I suppose, the main extant side-trains: if one of <me, JNV, Stick> had and used vote manip, then as long as Xino peels off Mat or Illwei (assuming V!Mat, V!Illwei in this case), then you get 4-3.

FWIW may or may not have been on but cannot recall. I would've just had it in a tab and forgotten about it. I'd basically checked out of the game after my last post and was preoccupied with other things.

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

I never got around to responding to that, but I no never said explaining things was bad, just that the explanation for the explanation was unnecessary.

To be charitable to JNV, you voting Araris for being overexplainy but also @ing him for not explaining his vote is basically blowing hot and cold at the same time. You could say you wanted a specific sort of explanation from him and felt the other sort was too much, but ehhh. I will say my gut regards you more favourably than JNV right now, but that's really not very much since I shouldn't be playing by raw gut but lolwhocares.

[Turtle]

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Ni su'cuyi, gar kyr'adyc, ni partayli, gar darasuum, Araris.

This is making me sad but also making me wonder why I actually know exactly what it means

first thoughts on the nk:

-interesting choice? It confuses me a bit tbh mat seemed like a better nk choice butttt if araris was protecting mat it might have made more sense? 

Also to shining’s “how do we know this”, a 3-4 player elim team makes sense for a game of this size, I think. I lean a bit more towards 3 but they both work. 

[Kasimir he/him]

12 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

To tie or kill someone else, the Villager in <Illwei, Mat> needs vote manip.

This should read Elim. I'm tired.

At this juncture, despite my multiple oranges, I am currently leaning towards going for Silho. Barring any further thoughts, I don't know if I fully believe that the Xino train is pure.

Edited to add:

Ok, but let's say E!Silho. Do you drop a distancing vote on your Coinshot teammate of all teammates though? What could possess you to do something so kayana as that? Lack of awareness of how volatile D1 can be?

Edited September 21, 2022 by Kasimir

[---]

@_Stick_ I don't remember who was on at rollover.

Also wrt JNV, posts like that I think are NAI for him as that's what he posts. I do want to pressure Turtle right now a little more, for their similar, yet not similar post. I know it's thier first game back in a bit, but still even in games before I've seen them say things that are more substantial...or not even that, but....

I've seen them be more curious or confused or anything other than this.

Edited September 21, 2022 by Illwei

[Turtle]

People I think are vil: 

-silho bc I can’t see them doing the xino poke if they’re elim, though I know I’ve done stuff like that in the past but

-kas bc he seems to be posting similar to the qf I specced and he was vil that game

those are my, like, stronger vil reads. Everyone else is vil- to null- with true nulls (not just null but no clue null) being:

-shqueeves: not a ton of info?

-illwei: they’re hard to read for me most of the time

-conq: also hard to read, I though they were elim (like convinced) in the qf and they weren’t and they feel elimmy to me now and I’m not sure what that means

[Turtle]

12 minutes ago, Illwei said:

@_Stick_ I don't remember who was on at rollover.

Also wrt JNV, posts like that I think are NAI for him as that's what he posts. I do want to pressure Turtle right now a little more, for her similar, yet not similar post. I know it's her first game back in a bit, but still even in games before I've seen her say things that are more substantial...or not even that, but....

I've seen her be more curious or confused or anything other than this.

(err, they/them pls?)

uhm, which post of mine are you referring to? If you mean the one where I quoted kas, I don’t really know how to defend that to you. It wasn’t really meant to be substantial or anything, I was mostly trying to get something in before I had an appointment. I’d also only skimmed through this thread by that point so it’s lacking in any sort of large quotes.

 

Edit: AAAA double post sorry will edit if I need to!

Edited September 21, 2022 by Turtle

[---]

1 hour ago, Turtle said:

(err, they/them pls?)

uhm, which post of mine are you referring to? If you mean the one where I quoted kas, I don’t really know how to defend that to you. It wasn’t really meant to be substantial or anything, I was mostly trying to get something in before I had an appointment. I’d also only skimmed through this thread by that point so it’s lacking in any sort of large quotes.

 

Edit: AAAA double post sorry will edit if I need to!

Sorry, editing, am on mobile didn't see your rank

[Conquestor he/him]

7 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Mat is a very curious pick to me. Illwei went off Mat and Mat would basically never vote Mat. Picking Mat is alienating one of the two players left. @Conquestor if you're smoking tinfoil, this is the one place I don't understand. You're a desperate dying Elim Coinshot at EoD. V!Mat would never self-vote, and has the potential to self-pres against you because he's actually on, sealing your death. Why for the love of all things holy do you pick Mat first?

I agree there are plenty of holes in Mat being elim, but to be fair, if there weren't any holes that would be more concerning. It's also why Iam trying to gather more information from people so I can see if there is a better lead. Speaking of which, if I was going to change my vote to someone right now,it would be to Silho. My problem with them though is that he seems pretty genuine this cycle and he isn't making any real attempts to save himself. An elim is going to be hyper focused on survival and fitting in right now because of the loss of a teammate.

7 hours ago, Kasimir said:

 

@Conquestor - Why still TUN at that point, if you were conditionally willing to think Stick was Evil?

I couldn't see any better options based off of the wagons that were happening at the time. I wasn't sold on TUN, but I wasn't sold on anyone else either. I was neutral about Stick and I'm still neutral about her. She just hasn't done a whole lot that sticks out to me. Although, I did like her call out on Shining this cycle.

6 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

And I've detailed quite well why you shouldn't be  The last two times of which you've brushed off without a comment on them. If you're not going to reconsider that's one thing I guess but I can't imagine what I'm saying doesn't make sense to you in some capacity.

--

Willing to move Kas further back in my PoE, he's progressively read more normal to me than his opening posts did and the xino weirdness is weird, not incriminating, so I'm looking at [JNV, Shining, Shqueeves] as my PoE with [Stick, Kas] as secondaries (at least until someone tells me why Stick isn't in anyone's PoE that I can tell) and [Turtle, Bookworm] as low/inactives. My reads have suddenly aligned with Kas' and I don't know how to feel about that  

I don't know Conq's elim play at all so what Kas said earlier gives me some pause but I'm still willing to v read him off this push. The way xino treated TUN and Wiz is enough to get them out of my PoE for now, and I do think Illwei's C1 play is decently clearing but I'm not dead set on it by any means (grumbles in LG74) (is this where she apologizes to Vapor?) and I guess that's everyone.

That's fair, but it mostly comes back down to two or three things and I really don't want to go on the merry go round argument. I never said that it doesn't and I've agreed with you on some points. That doesn't mean that my own points go away, however. I'm trying to go down other paths this cycle to see if there is someone more likely to be an elim. I know that you don't like votes on you, but I'm going to vote where my suspicions are. That being said, the amount of people that are saying they v lean you somewhat does make me pause. Still, I don't see a better option currently. If you don't like my vote, go and find someone else who would be a better exe! Just because I think you're a good exe right now doesn't mean it will stay that way. 

Edit:

@The Unknown Novel

Quote

I had votes on me? Other than you?

Because I was pretty busy with football, and I didn't get the feeling that anyone really even half agreed with you, which is kinda unusual. 

Honestly, I need to read it again, cause I skimmed a lot of the later stuff. 

Yes. Illwei had voted for you first and that's the vote you quoted and sighed at. I tied you with Mat with each of you having two votes.

Ouch, but fair. I think people that I'm not directly targeting are pretty much just ignoring me...

Edited September 22, 2022 by Conquestor

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

33 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

Speaking of which, if I was going to change my vote to someone right now,it would be to Silho. My problem with them though is that he seems pretty genuine this cycle and he isn't making any real attempts to save himself. An elim is going to be hyper focused on survival and fitting in right now because of the loss of a teammate.

Except last game I did the opposite

Though yeah I'm cool don't vote me

[The Unknown Order he/him]

19 hours ago, Kasimir said:

 CBA

What's this about the Chinese Basketball Association?

2 hours ago, Conquestor said:

I agree there are plenty of holes in Mat being elim, but to be fair, if there weren't any holes that would be more concerning. It's also why Iam trying to gather more information from people so I can see if there is a better lead. Speaking of which, if I was going to change my vote to someone right now,it would be to Silho. My problem with them though is that he seems pretty genuine this cycle and he isn't making any real attempts to save himself. An elim is going to be hyper focused on survival and fitting in right now because of the loss of a teammate.

I couldn't see any better options based off of the wagons that were happening at the time. I wasn't sold on TUN, but I wasn't sold on anyone else either. I was neutral about Stick and I'm still neutral about her. She just hasn't done a whole lot that sticks out to me. Although, I did like her call out on Shining this cycle.

That's fair, but it mostly comes back down to two or three things and I really don't want to go on the merry go round argument. I never said that it doesn't and I've agreed with you on some points. That doesn't mean that my own points go away, however. I'm trying to go down other paths this cycle to see if there is someone more likely to be an elim. I know that you don't like votes on you, but I'm going to vote where my suspicions are. That being said, the amount of people that are saying they v lean you somewhat does make me pause. Still, I don't see a better option currently. If you don't like my vote, go and find someone else who would be a better exe! Just because I think you're a good exe right now doesn't mean it will stay that way. 

Edit:

@The Unknown Novel

Yes. Illwei had voted for you first and that's the vote you quoted and sighed at. I tied you with Mat with each of you having two votes.

Ouch, but fair. I think people that I'm not directly targeting are pretty much just ignoring me...

Oh, I remember now. Not sure why I didn't care, probably down to lack of time mostly. 

Well, I'll say that my opinion on you basically stands at "really don't like tone + actions, but due to obviousness and vote reasons probably isn't elim."

Edit: Most specifically your Mat tunnel.

Edited September 22, 2022 by The Unknown Novel

[Kasimir he/him]

3 hours ago, Conquestor said:

I agree there are plenty of holes in Mat being elim, but to be fair, if there weren't any holes that would be more concerning. It's also why Iam trying to gather more information from people so I can see if there is a better lead. Speaking of which, if I was going to change my vote to someone right now,it would be to Silho. My problem with them though is that he seems pretty genuine this cycle and he isn't making any real attempts to save himself. An elim is going to be hyper focused on survival and fitting in right now because of the loss of a teammate.

Think there's a misunderstanding here

I'm saying I V read Mat but this is the one place that I don't understand: which is that if Mat is V, why does E!Xino vote V!Mat, knowing V!Mat is on at EoD and has just changed his vote? Isn't that seppuku? V!Mat would obviously self-pres, and if Mat self-preses, the only place to vote is on Xino. So Xino doesn't want to aggravate Mat - he wants Mat to stay voting on me. Or even better, for Mat to vote with him, which is where the me vote makes sense. In that light, it seems illogical to vote V!Mat and does make me wonder if the vote is performative.

So if you are on E!Mat tinfoil, this is the one place I'd sort of be sympathetic towards it. But I still feel like the kill meta point is more decisively against E!Mat. I do feel that the fact Xino did an oops and changed his vote within the post is suggestive of panic, so maybe he didn't think through the considerations properly. IDK.

My issue with Silho is basically that he doesn't do aggressive tonal "Don't kill me" - C5 of the QF, he was basically "oh okay I get it" and so pinged fairly genuine. He's definitely less aggressively giving reads and suspicions this time, though.

20 minutes ago, The Unknown Novel said:

What's this about the Chinese Basketball Association?

Don't make me swear on the Shard 

Edited to add:

21 minutes ago, The Unknown Novel said:

Edit: Most specifically your Mat tunnel.

In both senses of the word...

Edited September 22, 2022 by Kasimir

[JNV]

17 hours ago, Conquestor said:

@JNV Why did you end up voting for Stick out of everyone? 

Did you not read my post Stick argued Araris was overexplaining cause explaining is an inherent part of SE but also saying Illwei not explaining is theri MO and laso saying Araris wasnt explaining enough and it just felt disingenouous and I didnt really like any of the other vote options cause all of them felt like they were just existing instead of targeting strange behavior oh I think thats whats wrong with my evildar it detects weird behavior but weird isnt necessarily evil ok note to future self recalibrate that

6 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I'll tag and pressure @JNV JNV, where are you at? How've you been? Thoughts on the C1 voting and the flips?

Hi sorry I had like four tests this week and havent really had a ton of time to get on but anyway a lot of the votes for xinoehp just feel sorta there like they dont really have anything behind they they dont really have any support like Silhouette said it was just a why not sorta thing you wanted Araris to live Araris was trying to live Conquestor was trying to have a signifiicant vote instead of voting on an actual suspicion and I notice that Novel suspicion just dropped off hmmmmmmmm and Illwei well I never get Illwei and besides those last second votes felt really unnecessary honestly like the guy was already dead was there really no better place to put that vote no thinking about suspicions no substance just toss on a vote on a dead guy Conquestor feels slimy off that but they always feel slimy I dont know why and honestly my brain is just mush right now and everyone is a blob of confusion sorry I havent really been paying a ton of attention to the game

4 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Depending on when exactly JNV started typing up that post, Kas' vote might've still been on me at that time. I can definitely see how this vote looks opportunistic. @JNV was Kas' vote change a ninja?

Ummmm no? His vote change was like five hours before my post I dont know about you but five hours is a long time to be typing up a post and not checking on any replies in the meantime

 

Ok time to actually get a handle on the people in the game heres the living non me people

Matrim I mean my main sticking point with them is how they voted xinoehp out of 'save Araris' thoughts but didnt say why Stick or The uNknown Novel were lelss good cause of all the options xinoehp had actually no reasoning behind it and that bugs me and then willfully abandon their case against Kasimir which appeared to be founded in some level of reason for a useless vote on xinoehp again like they were already going to die what did that vote even do but tonally and thought process wise beyond xinoehp they feel pretty smooth I think Ive ended upw with my tpical default on them of vaguely positive feelings 

Novel I mean I always end up suspecting Novel its a bit of a thing but they havent done anything Id consider actually evil but also they havnt done anything Id consider actually good so I guess null but also just confused

Wizard just feels like cotton candy honestly lots of fluff but when you rinse it out its all gone a bit of presence a bit of comedy but like they havent done anything 

Stick honestly not over Sticks whole Araris case but most of their stuff has seemed decent

Shqueeeves is kinda like Wizard theyve existed but when you really look at it theyve done absoluely nothing 

Conquestor for some reason I always end up suspecting Conqeustor dont know why nothing against you youre a lovely person it just happens I feel like your Matrim case is a bit overstated but thats not really an evil thing 

Silhouette I think the way silhouette thinks about the game and the way I think about the game are kind of different and that dissonance is confusing me  

Symphonian honestly forgot they were playing this game um let me go look at what theyve been doing ok they havent done anything cool cool cool

Kasimir I kind of just always trust Kasimir and thatll probably come back to bite me some day but honestly cant see their actions as evil Kasimir cause theyd probably be at least a little more careful 

Turtle seems to have a weird idea of what distancing is and the way they said that the thing isnt alignment indicative or anything and is just info when its stuff anyone could have gotten its just cotton candy again and its probably my faulty evildar here giving me bad vibes but theres just some weird vibes

Illwei Ive actually been feeling pretty good about Illwei this game which is kinda weird honestly but oh well theyve been contributing theyve been helpful relatively content to just let it sit

On one hand Shinings tone and stuff pings my evildar like crazy on the other hand I thought that last time I played with them and they feel kinda the same and I can kinda understand their worldview if I squint maybe possible on the thirds ecret hand its Stick pointing it out and I dont think I can get over stick on the fourth hand I cant get on tomorrow I have a school thing on the fifth hand I am actually falling asleep case in point I fell asleep two hours ago in a chair and just woke up so Im just generally useless right now Ill see if I can get on tomorrow well see

[---]

2 hours ago, JNV said:

oh I think thats whats wrong with my evildar it detects weird behavior but weird isnt necessarily evil ok note to future self recalibrate that

Mrrrr....

2 hours ago, JNV said:

Illwei and besides those last second votes felt really unnecessary honestly like the guy was already dead was there really no better place to put that vote no thinking about suspicions no substance just toss on a vote on a dead guy

Do you think I'm an elim because of it? At the time I had no clue how vote manip would work, if you're an elim then it's always worth saving yourself even if you lose your one shot, one cycle is enough. With xino flipping coinshot especially, if I was an Elim vote manip (that exists right, I swear it did when I read the rules but I'm gonna look really stupid if it doesn’t) then I would, if the votecount was 3 on xino to 2 on Mat (which it was, like 2 hours before eod, when I took my vote off mat) then using vote manip, plus xino voting, would be worth it. 

[Turtle]

9 hours ago, The Unknown Novel said:

What's this about the Chinese Basketball Association?

Wait actually what does CBA mean?
 

I think so far I’m wish xino, like, interacted with people more? I’m a bit better at reading e/e interactions than I am but reading but here this is anyways

On 9/18/2022 at 1:52 PM, Shining Silhouette said:

I think I'm going to like a less mechanic-based game

Xino

Gonna read this as a poke vote but I suppose it gives them some points bc I don’t see e!silho doing this?

On 9/18/2022 at 4:27 PM, xinoehp512 said:

Hi everyone! Feels like it's been a bit.

I'm confined to mobile for the foreseeable future so I'm sure that will do great things to my already stellar activity levels. 

Standard reminder ties are of the eliminators yadda yadda yadda I'm sure this is nothing new. Maybe slight sus towards TUN for his attitude towards ties but it was the second post in the cycle he didn't exactly have much of a choice. :P.

Sadly I can't do vote counts on a phone. I can already tell keeping track is going to be a headache...

For now I will put pressure on Wizard.

-elimmy easy to take back TUN stuff which is nai to me (for tun), then votes wiz which gives wiz some ‘not elim’ points in my book

On 9/19/2022 at 6:42 PM, Ashbringer said:

Wha - I - I fixed that

Grrrr

• Araris Valerian (3): _Stick_, Illwei, The Wandering Wizard
• The Wandering Wizard (2): Matrim's Dice, xinoehp512
• Matrim's Dice (1): Kasimir
• _Stick_ (1): Araris Valerian
• The Unknown Novel (1): Conquestor
• xinoehp512 (1): Shining Silhouette

vote count by this point in time, xino doesn’t respond to silho’s post

On 9/19/2022 at 9:59 PM, Araris Valerian said:

Xino Stick

^example of why araris was a good nk, ig? This vote was probably just consolidating the votes and trying to get some info cos d1, but still

On 9/19/2022 at 10:59 PM, Illwei said:

Xino

See this as pretty v, I see e!illwei voting wiz or araris here rather than bussing a teammate 

On 9/19/2022 at 10:59 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

xino

Edit: Lol

edit 2: wait he changed to Kas 

nvm too late, no clue what to make of that anyway

edit 3: Hi, Ash  

From what I can tell the eod was rlly confusing for yall (and the fact that mat got in three edits is impressive :p), but I’m thinking that most of the xino wagon was vil because why would an elim bus their teammate who has a special power on d1? If the anyone there were to flip elim I might be a bit more inclined to think most players have blessings, and everyone in the elim team does, which would lead me towards a 3 player elim team? My biggest issue here is the only possible e/e interaction I’m seeing is xino mentioning tun but even that is far fetched cos it could just be filler like I’m assuming the stuff abt game mechanics were.

[Ashbringer he/him]

Vote Count (I hope):

• JNV (2): Kasimir, Matrim's Dice
• Shining Silhouette (1): _Stick_
• Matrim's Dice (1): Conquestor
• Turtle (1): Illwei

 

Also @SymphonianBookworm, you haven't posted in a while - I haven't really set up an inactivity filter but I probably will the end of this turn.

[Mat he/him]

13 hours ago, Kasimir said:

He's definitely less aggressively giving reads and suspicions this time, though.

If there's anything about Shining that's giving me pause right now, it's this-- he's playing noticeably different from his village game. He's also playing different from his elim game but if there's a sudden playstyle change I'd more likely read that as evil. I could understand Shining wanting to appear different from our QF loss and I'd have expected v!Shining to just be the same, there wasn't really a reason to change playstyle since a few weeks ago.

11 hours ago, JNV said:

and then willfully abandon their case against Kasimir which appeared to be founded in some level of reason for a useless vote on xinoehp again like they were already going to die what did that vote even do

I didn't know what the VC was, so when I saw xino's vote on me I retaliated :P. And like Illwei said, that vote was kinda outing to begin with. Or at least it loooked bad. My Kas case was only kind of a case and the real reason I unvoted xino was because I looked at how little resistance his exe had and thought that meant he was village.

4 hours ago, Turtle said:

(and the fact that mat got in three edits is impressive :p)

I mean, edit 2 was made at 8:00 and edit 3 was like 8:02 :P.

Also I kind of just thought that everyone had Blessings. Hope that doesn't get me NKd :D.

I think I feel better on Shining than JNV. Shining's play has been different enough that it's pinging me, but honestly this post might be enough for me to change my mind again. I don't really see why e!Shining sticks to their vote after being called out on it here, especially after calling for consolidation. They're voting xino in a 2-2-2 tie or something like that, the best move for e!them is to listen to JNV and their own advice and move elsewhere.

Actually no I've convinced myself again. JNV.

JNV/Shining not e/e
Stick/Shining not e/e
JNV/Stick not e/e

@Shqueeves, what do you think about all of this?

Edited September 22, 2022 by Matrim's Dice
Forgot to link the Shining post lol

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

If there's anything about Shining that's giving me pause right now, it's this-- he's playing noticeably different from his village game. He's also playing different from his elim game but if there's a sudden playstyle change I'd more likely read that as evil. I could understand Shining wanting to appear different from our QF loss and I'd have expected v!Shining to just be the same, there wasn't really a reason to change playstyle since a few weeks ago.

The thing is, as far as I can tell, in your QF Elim doc, Shining has mentioned wanting to change his Elim playstyle, and regretted going with the play he did in the QF, so I would not expect E!Shining to be playing consistently with that anyway. I do see some similarities in the vote stability issue so that's making me wonder about E!Shining. That, and again, my thoughts on how likely it is the Xino train was entirely pure. It could be, but coupled with my questions about Shining, it's one avenue I'm considering.

FWIW:

8 hours ago, Illwei said:

Do you think I'm an elim because of it? At the time I had no clue how vote manip would work, if you're an elim then it's always worth saving yourself even if you lose your one shot, one cycle is enough. With xino flipping coinshot especially, if I was an Elim vote manip (that exists right, I swear it did when I read the rules but I'm gonna look really stupid if it doesn’t) then I would, if the votecount was 3 on xino to 2 on Mat (which it was, like 2 hours before eod, when I took my vote off mat) then using vote manip, plus xino voting, would be worth it. 

Ok. Back to V on Illwei than tentative V. Part of me says that in this scenario, Illwei would've put away vote manip when it was clear that Xino can't be saved, part of me thinks that an extra Turn of life for the Coinshot isn't worth losing two Elims over, especially if it is a three person team. (To be clear, this is true because Elim vote manip only redirects a vote to be on the same train as you. So in that light, it is fairly suicidal to have 2/3 of a train being Elim because once Xino flips, 2/3 of the team goes down.) But I also struggle to see Illwei agreeing that the CW should be on Mat, because that is still a very ? play from Xino, and they would need coordination to save Xino.

Going JNV, Shqueeves. 

13 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I think I feel better on Shining than JNV. Shining's play has been different enough that it's pinging me, but honestly this post might be enough for me to change my mind again. I don't really see why e!Shining sticks to their vote after being called out on it here, especially after calling for consolidation. They're voting xino in a 2-2-2 tie or something like that, the best move for e!them is to listen to JNV and their own advice and move elsewhere.

Does moving look too placatory though? We commonly remark on Elim oversensitivity to challenge as well, though I will agree that Silho could've just voted someone like Shqueeves with little challenge, but voting elsewhere with no reason (given the first callout) just looks bad.

Since ties don't kill, and Xino could plausibly have self-pressed, I'm wondering if the calculus at that time is that Xino wasn't in that much danger.

My main issue with JNV and the reason for withdrawing is that we're maybe 3/4 into the cycle, and:

11 hours ago, JNV said:

Did you not read my post Stick argued Araris was overexplaining cause explaining is an inherent part of SE but also saying Illwei not explaining is theri MO and laso saying Araris wasnt explaining enough and it just felt disingenouous and I didnt really like any of the other vote options cause all of them felt like they were just existing instead of targeting strange behavior oh I think thats whats wrong with my evildar it detects weird behavior but weird isnt necessarily evil ok note to future self recalibrate that

Hi sorry I had like four tests this week and havent really had a ton of time to get on but anyway a lot of the votes for xinoehp just feel sorta there like they dont really have anything behind they they dont really have any support like Silhouette said it was just a why not sorta thing you wanted Araris to live Araris was trying to live Conquestor was trying to have a signifiicant vote instead of voting on an actual suspicion and I notice that Novel suspicion just dropped off hmmmmmmmm and Illwei well I never get Illwei and besides those last second votes felt really unnecessary honestly like the guy was already dead was there really no better place to put that vote no thinking about suspicions no substance just toss on a vote on a dead guy Conquestor feels slimy off that but they always feel slimy I dont know why and honestly my brain is just mush right now and everyone is a blob of confusion sorry I havent really been paying a ton of attention to the game

Ummmm no? His vote change was like five hours before my post I dont know about you but five hours is a long time to be typing up a post and not checking on any replies in the meantime

 

Ok time to actually get a handle on the people in the game heres the living non me people

Matrim I mean my main sticking point with them is how they voted xinoehp out of 'save Araris' thoughts but didnt say why Stick or The uNknown Novel were lelss good cause of all the options xinoehp had actually no reasoning behind it and that bugs me and then willfully abandon their case against Kasimir which appeared to be founded in some level of reason for a useless vote on xinoehp again like they were already going to die what did that vote even do but tonally and thought process wise beyond xinoehp they feel pretty smooth I think Ive ended upw with my tpical default on them of vaguely positive feelings 

Novel I mean I always end up suspecting Novel its a bit of a thing but they havent done anything Id consider actually evil but also they havnt done anything Id consider actually good so I guess null but also just confused

Wizard just feels like cotton candy honestly lots of fluff but when you rinse it out its all gone a bit of presence a bit of comedy but like they havent done anything 

Stick honestly not over Sticks whole Araris case but most of their stuff has seemed decent

Shqueeeves is kinda like Wizard theyve existed but when you really look at it theyve done absoluely nothing 

Conquestor for some reason I always end up suspecting Conqeustor dont know why nothing against you youre a lovely person it just happens I feel like your Matrim case is a bit overstated but thats not really an evil thing 

Silhouette I think the way silhouette thinks about the game and the way I think about the game are kind of different and that dissonance is confusing me  

Symphonian honestly forgot they were playing this game um let me go look at what theyve been doing ok they havent done anything cool cool cool

Kasimir I kind of just always trust Kasimir and thatll probably come back to bite me some day but honestly cant see their actions as evil Kasimir cause theyd probably be at least a little more careful 

Turtle seems to have a weird idea of what distancing is and the way they said that the thing isnt alignment indicative or anything and is just info when its stuff anyone could have gotten its just cotton candy again and its probably my faulty evildar here giving me bad vibes but theres just some weird vibes

Illwei Ive actually been feeling pretty good about Illwei this game which is kinda weird honestly but oh well theyve been contributing theyve been helpful relatively content to just let it sit

On one hand Shinings tone and stuff pings my evildar like crazy on the other hand I thought that last time I played with them and they feel kinda the same and I can kinda understand their worldview if I squint maybe possible on the thirds ecret hand its Stick pointing it out and I dont think I can get over stick on the fourth hand I cant get on tomorrow I have a school thing on the fifth hand I am actually falling asleep case in point I fell asleep two hours ago in a chair and just woke up so Im just generally useless right now Ill see if I can get on tomorrow well see

The one thing I do not see in that long block of text is a vote, or even any awareness at all that they're being voted on. I'm a bit concerned by that nonchalance, and sort of leaning Village on it. I guess they could (similar to Silho) feel a lot more blase about leading the votes because they can tie the votes and they might very well have vote manip, but even so. The fact there's just no reaction to or even acknowledgement of the votes is ??? to me, and making me hesitate on JNV.

19 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

JNV/Shining not e/e
Stick/Shining not e/e
JNV/Stick not e/e

?

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

19 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

If there's anything about Shining that's giving me pause right now, it's this-- he's playing noticeably different from his village game. He's also playing different from his elim game but if there's a sudden playstyle change I'd more likely read that as evil. I could understand Shining wanting to appear different from our QF loss and I'd have expected v!Shining to just be the same, there wasn't really a reason to change playstyle since a few weeks ago.

A couple thoughts:

• My V!Me game was actually my first game ever
• My last game was my first game being an elim
• So this is my first game seeing both sides as a player
• And I also don't have as much free time as I did my first game

Basically I'm still figuring out my playstyle and what I like as a player.

This game is interesting cause I have literally almost no reads on anybody- but I'm still having a good time. Before EoD I'll  go through and make a reads list. The beginning of the game is hard cause there's so many people- and it's even worse this game because there's supposedly more elims 

11 hours ago, JNV said:

On one hand Shinings tone and stuff pings my evildar like crazy

Why thank you!

[Mat he/him]

9 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

?

The first of those is probably the weakest but their sort of interaction in the post I linked earlier doesn't read e/e to me and also just like I kinda doubt the two leading-ish trains today are both right just out of principle :P.

Second of those because Stick has been gunning for Shining like the whole game

Third of those because JNV went for Stick instead of xino

[Conquestor he/him]

11 hours ago, JNV said:

Conquestor feels slimy off that but they always feel slimy I dont know why and honestly my brain is just mush right now and everyone is a blob of confusion sorry I havent really been paying a ton of attention to the game

Conquestor for some reason I always end up suspecting Conqeustor dont know why nothing against you youre a lovely person it just happens I feel like your Matrim case is a bit overstated but thats not really an evil thing 

Uhhh, what is it about me that feels slimy? Hmmmm. I feel like my play style tends to rub people the wrong way. I just feel like I need to explain myself (normal for me even before playing SE) and I like looking into possibilities. I did feel like it was helpful for the village, but I'm getting the feeling it isn't. Okay, I appreciate the feedback, I'm going to try and change my playstyle by being more... concise? That seems like a good idea.

Why didn't the elims help Xino out more??? I have come up with two possibilities. One is that multiple elims were on the chopping block and so they were all just trying to self save and so couldn't worry about another teammate who was up for the exe. The second possibility is that the team is made up of mostly less active posters. In fact these two possibilities could easily coincide.

Votes D1 with rollover times...

Spoiler

32 hours before rollover

• The Wandering Wizard (2): Matrim's Dice, xinoehp512
• _Stick_ (2): Kasimir, Araris Valerian
• Araris Valerian (1): Illwei
• Matrim's Dice (1): Araris
• The Unknown Novel (1): Conquestor
• xinoehp512 (1): Shining Silhouette

9 hours before rollover

• The Wandering Wizard (2): Matrim's Dice, xinoehp512
• _Stick_ (2): Kasimir, Araris Valerian
• Araris Valerian (2): Illwei, _Stick_
• Conquestor (1): Shqueeves
• The Unknown Novel (1): Conquestor
• xinoehp512 (1): Shining Silhouette

5 hours before rollover

• Araris Valerian (3): Illwei, _Stick_, The Wandering Wizard
• The Wandering Wizard (2): Matrim's Dice, xinoehp512
• Matrim's Dice (1): Kasimir
• _Stick_ (1): Araris Valerian
• The Unknown Novel (1): Conquestor
• xinoehp512 (1): Shining Silhouette

2 hours before rollover:

• Matrim's Dice (2): Kasimir, Illwei
• _Stick_ (2): Araris Valerian, JNV
• xinoehp512 (2): Shining Silhouette, Matrim's Dice
• The Wandering Wizard (1): xinoehp512
• Araris Valerian (1): _Stick_
• The Unknown Novel (1): Conquestor

Mat... Stick fits the "Why not save Xino" world. Stick experiences a lot of pressure early on in the cycle with Araris being their main antagonist. Xino comes in and makes wizard take the lead in the votes, but then Araris changes his vote to stick. Stick retaliate votes on Araris and then stays there. Why didn't Stick join the Wizard wagon if they were worried about being killed? Perhaps they didn't want to vote with a teammate. Stick's last post was at 10 hours to rollover. The kill would also make sense since Stick was consistently voted on by Araris right up until an hour before rollover. The wagon on Xino happened so smoothly because there wasn't an elim except Xino on at EoD. 

Given this new and more compelling argument, along with all the others given, I have to say that Mat looks not elim. I'll put you in neutral for now Mat, sorry I targeted you so hard during the night. Someone had to point it out, but definitely not as much as I had! 

Also, other elims? (Shqueeves, Turtle, Illwei, and a small possibility of Symphonian???)

[Mat he/him]

Just now, Conquestor said:

Given this new and more compelling argument, along with all the others given, I have to say that Mat looks not elim. I'll put you in neutral for now Mat, sorry I targeted you so hard during the night. Someone had to point it out, but definitely not as much as I had! 

You're good! What was it you said, "Mat doesn't like to be voted on"? xD No one does, right? :P. I expected pressure but I expected it less from multiple sources, not more from one source

Actually, I'm surprised at how many people village read me. One of those who's specifically said I'm village is probably elim.

The Stick case makes sense; xino's Wiz vote would then be in defense of Stick. Did he cast it when Stick was up 2-1, or was it before? Good eye, I'll think on that and reread Stick when I get the chance.

[Kasimir he/him]

5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Actually, I'm surprised at how many people village read me. One of those who's specifically said I'm village is probably elim.

Dunno though, isn't it fairly obvious? If you, Illwei, and Xino are all Evil together, there is no world in which Xino dies, period, barring some major gambit. I'm okay bracketing gambit-world and not looking at it immediately. The only E!you world that possibly makes sense entails E!you/E!Xino/V!Illwei and then there is no logical reason for Xino to vote on you in that world unless the hope was to split the vote, and then that doesn't matter because you went back to Xino at the last minute.

8 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

The Stick case makes sense; xino's Wiz vote would then be in defense of Stick. Did he cast it when Stick was up 2-1, or was it before? Good eye, I'll think on that and reread Stick when I get the chance.

This doesn't make sense to me. I'm not going to relook this again (ok maybe later) but I grit my teeth and did a vote progression analysis yesterday in the thread:

On 9/22/2022 at 0:51 AM, Kasimir said:

Wiz (1): Mat
Mat (2): TUN, Araris
Stick (1): Kas
TUN (2): Illwei, Conq
Xino (1): Silho

This is the state of the votes right before Xino votes. It's very, very early in the cycle - there's little reason to expect Xino was being protective of Stick, and you and TUN were tied. Araris doesn't vote Stick with me until much later in the cycle (okay, again, not checking right now, but based off my past analysis, I have three vote change-boxes between Xino voting on Wiz and Araris subsequently joining me on Stick. That's a significant amount of voting movement between the two votes. I don't buy it.)

18 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

Stick experiences a lot of pressure early on in the cycle with Araris being their main antagonist. Xino comes in and makes wizard take the lead in the votes

Ah, soddit, let me do it. Did we read the same cycle? Because:

This post is the only pressure Stick faces on p1. Stick gets queries, sure, but no expressions of suspicion at all. Attention is on Wiz and TUN. Stick's only two posts are not responses to challenge but commentary without pressure:

I don't understand where this argument is emerging from.

Then, Xino votes Wiz around five hours after rollover. That's incredibly early to start being reasonably protective of teammates.

I feel like the lynchpin of this argument hinges on the Wiz vote being protective of Stick - agree that the Araris kill would be possible from Stick, not sure the rest decisively points to Stick so much as constructs a narrative for E!Stick.

Anyway, I likely cannot be back before rollover, so I will need to do some thinking.

My current orange list: <Shqueeves, Silho, Stick, JNV> My main problem is Stick and JNV fit in the same bracket, but I'm quite stuck about which I'd rather vote for. 

Could reintroduce Symph, I suppose.

I'm currently on Shqueeves - pool issue, and just not fully fond of this post, though I'm not very sure why:

Probably need to make a better decision on where to likely-final-vote.

[Mat he/him]

Just now, Kasimir said:

This is the state of the votes right before Xino votes. It's very, very early in the cycle - there's little reason to expect Xino was being protective of Stick, and you and TUN were tied.

Ah ok, that was my question. I wasn't sure if xino had voted before Stick had two votes, or after. I agree that xino's motive wasn't to protect Stick.