Long Game 89: Blessings of Metal

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

6 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

In response to Shining's post from last turn:

That's not what I meant - you said you were afraid that 'the village' would rip your post to pieces trying to find incriminating evidence if you unvoted xino. This is strange to me because elims also have equal motivation to rip V!Shining's post to pieces if they can use it as reason to misexe you. So speaking of only the village in that scenario as opposed to just 'everyone' rubs me the wrong way.

In the spirit of not tunnelling on Shining I'll go TUN for now but honestly I'm itching to just vote Shining again lol. 

Huh, hadn't thought of it that way. Good point. Now I understand why you see my posts as coming from an Elim perspective.

I guess I didn't have a conscious reason for it. Then again, it was N1 and the majority of players then and now are still collectively "the village". Yeah, I see how this could be seen as a slip.

Fwiw, I'm fine with anyone voting me if they really think that this catch ousts me as an elim, as I'd probably latch onto it as well myself. I will, however, ask those who are considering voting on me to look at my votes and my posts and the general direction of the game and see if they really think I'm the best candidate for the lynch at this point.

2 hours ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

I WAS RIGHT!

I had considered attacking shining, but after JNV's last post my sense for them as being evil just wouldn't go away. So there you have it I've claimed, come kill me now elims :P. 

LETS GO WIZ

Thanks for not killing me :P.

Don't worry, Blessing of Presences coming your way next night cycle 

[Archer he/him]

12 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

 

SymphonianBookworm has met the inactivity filter and has been replaced by @Archer! Please welcome them to the game!

 

2 hours ago, Turtle said:

oh shoot nvm archer replaced symph

that's the worst welcome I've ever received :P. 

It appears that I need to counter claim Wiz because according to my GM PM, I'm the one who attacked JNV. @The Wandering Wizard care to explain? 

Also, I'm not going to be in a position to post meaningfully until Sunday, but I'll do my best to contribute as soon as I can. 

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

5 minutes ago, Archer said:

 

that's the worst welcome I've ever received :P. 

It appears that I need to counter claim Wiz because according to my GM PM, I'm the one who attacked JNV. @The Wandering Wizard care to explain? 

Also, I'm not going to be in a position to post meaningfully until Sunday, but I'll do my best to contribute as soon as I can. 

Welcome, Archer!

Maybe you both attacked JNV?

[Stick. she/her]

6 minutes ago, Archer said:

 

that's the worst welcome I've ever received :P. 

It appears that I need to counter claim Wiz because according to my GM PM, I'm the one who attacked JNV. @The Wandering Wizard care to explain? 

Also, I'm not going to be in a position to post meaningfully until Sunday, but I'll do my best to contribute as soon as I can. 

Ah yes, because Symph has totally not been offline since D2 

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

5 minutes ago, Archer said:

It appears that I need to counter claim Wiz because according to my GM PM, I'm the one who attacked JNV. @The Wandering Wizard care to explain? 

My GM PM also says that I successfully attacked JNV.

Just now, Shining Silhouette said:

Maybe you both attacked JNV?

That could have happened, but I'm more of the mind that Symph was evil and so Archer is. Since Symph hasn't been on the shard since THURSDAY and so couldn't have put in an action to kill JNV. 

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

1 minute ago, _Stick_ said:

Ah yes, because Symph has totally not been offline since D2 

1 minute ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

That could have happened, but I'm more of the mind that Symph was evil and so Archer is. Since Symph hasn't been on the shard since THURSDAY and so couldn't have put in an action to kill JNV. 

Oh yeah

Edit: Archer

Edited September 24, 2022 by Shining Silhouette

[Mat he/him]

Fwiw I don’t think there’s any way e!Archer counterclaims that without checking to see that it’s impossible first, he’s a better player than that. I also don’t think there’s any way e!him counterclaims it at all since with a probable 1v8 (or even a 2v6) starting a 1v1 is suicide.

So I bet it’s a reaction test.

[Stick. she/her]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Fwiw I don’t think there’s any way e!Archer counterclaims that without checking to see that it’s impossible first, he’s a better player than that. I also don’t think there’s any way e!him counterclaims it at all since with a probable 1v8 (or even a 2v6) starting a 1v1 is suicide.

So I bet it’s a reaction test.

I mean, yeah. But that said, he’s boldly lied as an elim before when there was literally no actual need to do so (about his role in MR56 and a reaction test similar to this one also in MR56) so while I wouldn’t vote on him for this I don’t have any reason to be village-reading him at the moment. 

[Archer he/him]

20 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Fwiw I don’t think there’s any way e!Archer counterclaims that without checking to see that it’s impossible first, he’s a better player than that.... 

So I bet it’s a reaction test.

V!me should have thought about the fact I'm replacing an inactive too, that's unfortunate. Disregard that counterclaim, I just wanted to see how committed Wiz was. It is interesting that Wiz checked to see if my story was plausible. I'd assume someone outright lying about it all wouldn't take that step. So village points to them. 

15 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I mean, yeah. But that said, he’s boldly lied as an elim before when there was literally no actual need to do so (about his role in MR56 and a reaction test similar to this one also in MR56) so while I wouldn’t vote on him for this I don’t have any reason to be village-reading him at the moment. 

Interesting hedge. 

[Mat he/him]

16 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I don’t have any reason to be village-reading him at the moment. 

How bout the fact that there was an elim kill? :P.

[Stick. she/her]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

How bout the fact that there was an elim kill? :P.

Wait actually that's a good point now that you mention it

@Ashbringer which kill comes first? In the rules they're lumped together

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

7 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

How bout the fact that there was an elim kill? :P.

I had forgotten about that. The same reason Symph wouldn't have put in blessing action is also the same reason symph wouldn't have put the kill in. Archer.

[Ashbringer he/him]

37 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

 

@Ashbringer which kill comes first? In the rules they're lumped together

Uhhh… Elim and Potency kills should happen at the same time. Neither comes “first”.

[Kasimir he/him]

1 hour ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

My GM PM also says that I successfully attacked JNV.

That could have happened, but I'm more of the mind that Symph was evil and so Archer is. Since Symph hasn't been on the shard since THURSDAY and so couldn't have put in an action to kill JNV. 

Works for me, happy to stick with V!Wiz. Need to play catch-up and update vote analysis now that I'm back from classes and the wonderful world of having passed an exam by throwing out everything I knew about farming sims.

Let's see: off the top of my head, the two I'm then strongest committed to as V would have to be Mat and Wiz. In a four team world with E!Mat and E!Illwei, Xino doesn't die. (I am leaning hard three member now because I can't quite see a four man team so I think the initial balance thoughts from distro match.) Again, Araris kill doesn't really make sense with E!Mat. So moving on. Maybe JNV has D1 implications but I'll relook them later.

Wiz because no challenge plus challenged Archer. Plus, that D1 vote. Works for me.

59 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

How bout the fact that there was an elim kill? :P.

Can't JNV have put in the kill? No real read on Archer right now, but don't know if I'd see E!Archer as pulling that bluff. If there was one Elim left, sure, but all kills are simultaneous so it should not make a difference that JNV was killed.

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I’d be interested to hear your case.

Also, @The Wandering Wizard, well done! I knew I village read you  

I'm not terribly fussed. I think it's reasonable to assume one to two more Elims, so in the worst case I don't actually care if we need to flip me this cycle to get people to stop repeatedly obsessing about me. I think we more or less have a numbers advantage so if that's what it takes to get me out of people's systems, then go for it. Kas. Here, I'll help out with all three votes.

8-1
7-2

7-1 / 6 -2

There's a decent buffer so I don't especially care.

I should note that Conq is a bloody stupid kill for me to make, in the first place - in a game where I'm decently active in the thread, E!me kills Illwei because Illwei will always eventually go onto me and is a bother to wrangle. In fact, killing Illwei sets Conq free to paranoid on you and Stick, I exploit that fracture line in thread the next day because I need a divided Village, and Conq was fairly robustly-committed to V!me. In an E!me world, Shining is E and I can reasonably count on Stick pushing Shining again. [Edited to add: I'm tired - in an E!me world, Shining is V, so I would allow a Shining ML.] There's no strategic and sensible reason to go for Conq.

This on top of everything else I've said about how this makes no sense with my E play.

But sure, if we need to be getting this out of our systems, then I will do the necessary.

Going to look at the past two cycles now and rework my reads - I will be disappointed if no one bothers to engage with them at the very least after I flip.

Edited to add 2: Hell, I just realised. Why the hell would E!me sign off on a C1 kill of Araris either, knowing what Araris experienced in the previous QF, either? I consider playing with him a real pleasure and given his early death, and the fact he wasn't pushing me or my purported teammates and willing to sus Illwei should mean there's really no reason for E!me to be cool with killing him. Damn, y'all really like to think I'm bloody ruthless.

Let's just be clear - in an E!Xino, E!JNV team, there's no way E!Kas does not get to say "I don't like Araris as a kill."

Edited September 24, 2022 by Kasimir

[Mat he/him]

I agree, Kas. Unvote yourself please  

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Fwiw I don’t think there’s any way e!Archer counterclaims that without checking to see that it’s impossible first, he’s a better player than that. I also don’t think there’s any way e!him counterclaims it at all since with a probable 1v8 (or even a 2v6) starting a 1v1 is suicide.

So I bet it’s a reaction test.

Huh. Archer

Strongly leaning vil for Kas now, by the way. After his post last cycle I started to lean that way, but he seems so genuinely annoyed that we would even consider him as a candidate this games because of everything that's happened. Also because he completely tore apart my poke of a suspicion

13 hours ago, The Unknown Novel said:

Are we going to go ahead with Illwei's plan?

That's a really interesting thing to say. Also, about Illwei's plan in general, I feel like we need to discuss, and the "any objections" part threw me for a loop because just because there aren't any super strong objections doesn't mean that we should vote that way. We should collectively strategize to figure out which candidate makes most sense for the village.

[Turtle]

3 hours ago, Archer said:

that's the worst welcome I've ever received :P. 

lmao I could do worse

could multiple people have attacked JNV at once? There’s always a chance both of you could be telling the truth, or one of you got rbed

[Kasimir he/him]

Right. Apologies for the double-post: as this is long, I do not want to edit this into the previous post. Also because I'll probably get ninjaed before I'm done with this. Current state of my thoughts:

D1:

Spoiler

Partly cribbed from the D2 analysis because the vote movements won't change, only my commentary on them, and the fact we can now colour some things in with flips and my thoughts. I am going to stick with my two strongest reads at this point, but can do a soft version later with more reads coloured in. Greens/reds for definitive flips, otherwise, highlights for thoughts.

Quote

Wiz (1): Mat
Mat (2): TUN, Araris
Stick (1): Kas
TUN (1): Illwei
Xino (1): Silho

Unremarkable up to this point. Noted that on D2, my thought/question was if the Xino vote was a distancing vote because it was fairly naked.

Conq votes TUN for tying the votes and ties the votes in the process. Enough said. We now know by word of Ash that Conq is V, so this has been reflected accordingly.

Quote

Wiz (1): Mat
Mat (2): TUN, Araris
Stick (1): Kas
TUN (2): Illwei, Conq
Xino (1): Silho

Xino shows up to vote Wiz. Mentions slight sus of TUN but doesn't go deeper and sort of waters it down - potential distancing? Dunno. Again, I struggle with trying to read what an Elim is doing in a post.

Quote

Wiz (2): Mat, Xino
Mat (2): TUN, Araris
Stick (1): Kas
TUN (2): Illwei, Conq
Xino (1): Silho

Here's an interesting question. Mat is in the lead and Mat is currently one of the two V reads I have I am not inclined to revise. At the point of Xino's vote, TUN and Mat are tied in the lead. Then Xino goes onto Wiz. Is that opportunism? Or was Xino trying to shield TUN? I don't know - again, as I said to Conq, I feel it's kind of insanely early to theorise that a player needs protection this early in the cycle. But I bring it up anyway.

Side-note: very fractional Village points to Mat off this as well. I know Mat disagrees with this, but I dgaf - I don't consider it too likely for Xino to stack onto a teammate's vote. And he's not the kind of metamesser I'd be concerned is playing into this.

This ties Wiz, Mat, and TUN. So he kind of has a bit of a slight sus of TUN:

On 9/19/2022 at 4:27 AM, xinoehp512 said:

Standard reminder ties are of the eliminators yadda yadda yadda I'm sure this is nothing new. Maybe slight sus towards TUN for his attitude towards ties but it was the second post in the cycle he didn't exactly have much of a choice. :P.

Half takes it back, and then votes on another train other than TUN, further diluting the votes and making the tie even more stable. Slight ??? of TUN here from Xino's attitude - I don't consider it as damning as vote dilution but I think it's definitely a bit more friendly to TUN than I'd expect off his comments.

Quote

Wiz (2): Mat, Xino
Mat (1): Araris
Stick (1): Kas
TUN (2): Illwei, Conq
Xino (1): Silho

But here, I still struggle to see why E!TUN unvotes, given vote volatility. It's possible E!TUN doesn't feel in danger. But there's no real associated cost in staying on Mat, I don't think, so why do it?

Illwei goes for Araris:

Quote

Wiz (2): Mat, Xino
Mat (1): Araris
Stick (1): Kas
TUN (1): Conq
Xino (1): Silho
Araris (1): Illwei

This returns Wiz to being the lead train. Guess TUN would be comfortable with doing so if it were a TUN-Illwei team. But that requires a four-man team and I'm struggling to see a four-man team world which coincidentally also doesn't have the votes to save Xino D1. I guess there could be some extreme crack theory about Illwei bussing her Coinshot D1 to gain Village trust since they had a four man team but that is so insane I am not going to remotely consider this worthy of civilised discussion. Just no. Araris then swaps to Stick:

Quote

Wiz (2): Mat, Xino
Stick (2): Kas, Araris
TUN (1): Conq
Xino (1): Silho
Araris (1): Illwei

Which ties off Stick and Wiz. Stick then votes Araris for tonal reasons, so three-way tie. I note that JNV was pushing Stick for this later and it didn't really feel like a distancing vote, not with the way JNV kept pushing Stick, so I'm going to go ahead and retrospectively colour Stick in. Sigh. RIP this post being coherent.

Quote

Wiz (2): Mat, Xino
Stick (2): Kas, Araris
TUN (1): Conq
Xino (1): Silho
Araris (2): Illwei, Stick

Shqueeves votes for Conq. Presumably has vote fabrication in mind. We now know Shqueeves is Village, so I am colouring that in as well. The key movement there IMO is Wiz hopping to Araris, as Stick points out, putting a Villager in the lead. This doesn't fundamentally matter for Wiz, but it does matter in terms of the fact we need to look at the dynamics, IMO.

Quote

Wiz (2): Mat, Xino
Stick (2): Kas, Araris
TUN (1): Conq
Xino (1): Silho
Araris (3): Illwei, Stick, Wiz
Conq (1): Shqueeves

This breaks a three-way Wiz-Stick-Araris tie. I move off Stick and go onto Mat, so it becomes just Wiz in contention with Araris. I do want to note though that at this point, all three of our lead trains - Wiz, Stick, Araris are plausibly Village. This explains the fact it was so hard to ID Elim movement - there's just no real need for them to care while the Village is shooting ourselves in the foot.

Quote

Wiz (2): Mat, Xino
Stick (1): Araris
TUN (1): Conq
Xino (1): Silho
Araris (3): Illwei, Stick, Wiz
Conq (1): Shqueeves
Mat (1): Kas

Shqueeves then retracts from Conq. We know Shqueeves is Village now so I am just going to move on.

Note that Xino recognises there are two votes on Stick but doesn't recognise Araris is on Stick. When I look at this again, this is an odd mistake to make. For an Elim team who is closely tracking the votes, they shouldn't be so confused about who is on whom! I suspect that whoever it is, the team isn't very closely paying attention. Clearly, one reason is that no Evil player is currently heavily threatened. This would push me back potentially to looking at the low activity pool, unless Illwei just happened to not be online to track, IDK. This is something I want to make a pool for. [Note to future Kas: look at who was active around the time of Xino's post but also before. This could be an indicator of how the mistake could be made.]

Quote

Wiz (1): Xino
Stick (2): Araris, JNV
TUN (1): Conq
Xino (2): Silho, Mat
Araris (3): Illwei, Stick, Wiz
Mat (1): Kas

Mat joins the Xino train. I would argue that given vote volatility, it would be very bold for E!Mat to stick a vote on Xino like that, especially as Illwei pointed out, Xino is a oneshot Coinshot. So yes, sigh, all aboard Team V!Mat train, choo choo. -> Still on it.

I could maybe see the JNV vote as being a bit odd. Because if you're an Elim, it's late in the cycle, and you're mildly worried about Xino and volatility, then the best place to go is to pad a side-train and bring it into contention. -> This aged well  But also, this increases my confidence in V!Stick. Xino is already in play - the last thing any Elim should want to do is to bring another teammate into play.

Quote

Wiz (1): Xino
Stick (2): Araris, JNV
TUN (1): Conq
Xino (2): Silho, Mat
Araris (1): Stick
Mat (2): Kas, Illwei

Illwei goes off Araris and onto Mat because Mat jumping on Wiz. Not sure if Illwei read or if something fishy here - Mat said he was trying to bait jump-ons and it didn't work. Mild ? at this. We now have a four-way tie. Will say that this is moving off a Villager and it feels a bit off for E!Illwei to do this - could leave the padding vote to keep Xino safe without reproach. So that's V-ish to me, in a very backward sort of way. I think it's fair to assume Xino's role is valuable enough they'd like to try not to lose Xino in the first night. (Unless this is a deliberate bus which I really don't want to think about now, because who would bus the Coinshot to gain trust, amirite >> Paranoia sod off.) At the same time, I feel that Illwei could just as easily re-hop elsewhere, so I don't really know how strongly I feel about this.

Yay overthinking on scant evidence!

Illwei does in fact not read Mat's point and okay fine I have more respect for E!Illwei than to assume it was deliberate, so she probably missed it.

Quote

Wiz (1): Xino
Stick (2): Araris, JNV
TUN (1): Conq
Xino (2): Silho, Mat
Araris (1): Stick
Mat (1): Kas

Removes Mat from contention, so Stick and Xino are in the lead. Again, feels a bit more risk than reward though Illwei did vote elsewhere later. Still getting V!Illwei tbh.

Here is a really important point - Silho refuses to shift vote off Xino to JNV's challenge. I actually think that this is quite V. A teammate's prompt should've gotten Silho to budge - this is like, thirty minutes to rollover, and you'd expect that sort of contact to have been choreographed in the Elim doc. So my apologies to @Shining Silhouette  I don't know I'm certain enough to green, but it's good enough for me that Silho is out of my primary suspect pool. - @_Stick_, want to hear your thoughts on this score if possible.

Araris goes onto Xino and retracts off Stick. (!!!!)

Quote

Wiz (1): Xino
Stick (1): JNV
TUN (1): Conq
Xino (3): Silho, Mat, Araris
Araris (1): Stick
Mat (1): Kas

At 1028hrs, Conq unvotes TUN and votes Xino to secure the lynch. I guess that's okay, but one thing going off in my head is: save or bus? If Xino's role is that valuable, why is there no save? Was this the point at which there was a committed bus? I don't feel particularly strongly or badly I guess. I could see E!Conq stacking up elsewhere, but ehh. Also can see this being the bus point. Returning to this subsequently - I hesitate to say bus. It feels like a really momentous decision if Conq can't be on for EoD, given volatility. Leaving a fourth vote on TUN feels kind of irresponsible, and Xino would've been saveable potentially. Lean V on Conq? _>  I am not hopeless!

Illwei goes onto Shqueeves which is basically a Villager side-train.

Mat goes onto me. Also side-train.

This is where there's apparently shenanigans where Xino's vote was on Mat, and then on me.

Ok here's the thing. Here's the state of the votes when this happens:

Quote

Stick (1): JNV
Xino (3): Silho, Araris, Conq
Araris (1): Stick
Mat (2): Kas, Xino
Shqueeves (1): Illwei
Kas (1): Mat

At 2 minutes to rollover, Xino votes Mat (I'm guessing, original post timestamp is 1058hrs.)

Mat is a very curious pick to me. Illwei went off Mat and Mat would basically never vote Mat. Picking Mat is alienating one of the two players left. @Conquestor if you're smoking tinfoil, this is the one place I don't understand. You're a desperate dying Elim Coinshot at EoD. V!Mat would never self-vote, and has the potential to self-pres against you because he's actually on, sealing your death. Why for the love of all things holy do you pick Mat first? -> So this was my comment early on, but I think there's a somewhat different story to be told here now.

Xino avoids the Stick train, i.e. voting alongside JNV. This suggests that Xino was initially looking for a way to self-pres that didn't involve voting with teammates, and suggests that Xino is allergic to voting alongside teammates. This doesn't really help me that much as I already think Mat is V and I don't need to question my own alignment  

Now, the interesting thing is that Xino avoids the Araris and Shqueeves trains. I am fairly okay with my V!Stick read so I am not going to question it. But there's a question about Xino avoiding voting alongside Illwei - on one hand, it's quite possible that Xino felt there would be no appetite for Shqueeves because returning player. But there's also the teammate possibility.

But that being said, I'm not sure how much stock to put in it - E!Illwei and E!Xino IMO, as far as they know, should agree to vote on Stick or on Araris. I don't know if Illwei could plausibly join the Mat train. Part of me thinks that as far as they know, chunking onto JNV could save Xino, at the cost of one or two of the team (steep, though. Probably why Xino preferred to vote elsewhere.) Ignoring Shqueeves kind of stands out to me because Shqueeves is honestly a LHF lynch. I don't know if Xino would have had that on his mind, but that's something I don't quite understand as a choice.

Anyway, voting V!Mat when Mat is on and active is obviously a bad choice. Presume that motivates the panic switch to me.

At the one minute mark, both Illwei and Mat switch to Xino, so:

Quote

Stick (1): JNV
Xino (5): Silho, Araris, Conq, Illwei, Mat
Araris (1): Stick
Mat (1): Kas
Kas (1): Xino

Bus, or the team is just not on?

We now know JNV was inactive at the critical juncture. I don't think Mat and Illwei are E/E and have said as much. If E!Illwei, then Illwei has to know that Mat is active and on at EoD and able to vote elsewhere. Consolidation should be discussed in the Elim doc, so I don't really see Xino going onto Mat unless he's going/gone rogue. I don't see any train that could practicably save Xino unless Illwei has vote manip - suppose they vote on Araris, Stick, or Mat. The Mat vote would rile Mat up, and probably V!Mat is smart enough to scent foul play if there's a coordinated vote on another train with Xino and someone else. 4-3 still gets Xino killed and voting late with Xino just looks sus as all hell. So IDK.

Still okay with V reading Mat for kill meta, but I'm at a loss as to why Xino votes Mat. --> My theory now is both low activity and potentially poor tracking. Again, need to cull the pool. But that's later, after the first analysis. I don't really endorse a bus crack theory, no.

Here's the overview of the endgame for D1:

Strong Threshold:

Quote

Stick (1): JNV
Xino (5): Silho, Araris, Conq, Illwei, Mat
Araris (1): Stick
Mat (1): Kas
Kas (1): Xino
Nope (5): Turtle, Shqueeves, TUN, Symph, Wiz

Weak Threshold:

Quote

Stick (1): JNV
Xino (5): Silho, Araris, Conq, Illwei, Mat
Araris (1): Stick
Mat (1): Kas
Kas (1): Xino
Nope (5): Turtle, Shqueeves, TUN, Symph, Wiz

Coloured based on where my thoughts are at the moment. [Weak Threshold] means I include reads I subjectively do not feel as sure of myself in but am willing to put on the table. This more or less commits me to looking in the <TUN, Archer, Turtle> pool for [Weak Threshold]. For [Strong Threshold], the official pool is <Illwei, Silho, Turtle, TUN, Archer.> I expect to be able to narrow this down by looking at D2.

D2:

Spoiler

Vote analysis of D2 here as well.

Conq starts off by voting Mat. No real comment to be made here as Conq is V!Conq. Stick then votes on Silho, and I vote for JNV as Silho already has a vote on him. Mat also doubles up on JNV. So we have JNV taking an early lead.

Quote

Mat (1): Conq
Silho (1): Stick
JNV (2): Kas, Mat

Illwei adds a vote to Turtle. Potential dilution? But I think it's good Village play too.

Quote

Mat (1): Conq
Silho (1): Stick
JNV (2): Kas, Mat
Turtle (1): Illwei

Mat unvotes JNV and goes for Shining for one hot second (TM) and goes back into JNV before the vote was even warm  I'm not gonna bother to track that one.

Quote

Mat (1): Conq
Silho (1): Stick
JNV (2): Kas, Mat
Turtle (1): Illwei

I moved from JNV to Shqueeves - PoE deal, plus the fact I felt JNV's nonchalance about being voted on seemed more V than E. This is like 3/4 into the cycle. Note that this entails that JNV stayed stably as the lead train for 3/4 of the cycle with little perceptible Elim intervention - there just isn't that much movement early on, compared to later.

Conq also shifts from Mat to Stick.

Quote

Silho (1): Stick
JNV (1): Mat
Shqueeves (1): Kas
Stick (1): Conq

Wiz gut votes Stick, so the train comes into contention. I am not rethinking Wiz, period

Quote

Silho (1): Stick
JNV (1): Mat
Shqueeves (1): Kas
Stick (2): Conq, Wiz

At around 2.5 hours to rollover, JNV votes for Stick. I'm not entertaining E!Stick anymore. This is a lot of nonchalance if Stick is Village. This solidifies the Stick train. Stick is Village, end of.

Quote

Silho (1): Stick
JNV (1): Mat
Shqueeves (1): Kas
Stick (3): Conq, Wiz, JNV

In response, Illwei defends Stick and votes for Silho. I think the defense of Stick is a good look. It's true E!Illwei doesn't really care which of them dies, but I recall Illwei being more vehement on the need to save Stick, and I feel like that team would prefer Stick dead, unless the gamble was that Stick would take out Silho. Still, think it looks more V.

Silho votes for Shqueeves. Nothing much to say there - Mat's willingness to defect does help, and I appreciate he's not going onto Stick. Tbf, he would probably get sussed as hell and seem opportunistic for doing so, but all the same.

Quote

Silho (2): Stick, Illwei
JNV (1): Mat
Shqueeves (2): Kas, Silho
Stick (3): Conq, Wiz, JNV

Mat goes onto Shqueeves to have his vote do something. This puts us in a Shqueeves-Stick tie, but his priority is not to kill Stick. Not sure his vote does something on Shqueeves at that point, but

Quote

Silho (2): Stick, Illwei
Shqueeves (3): Kas, Silho, Mat
Stick (3): Conq, Wiz, JNV

Something of note: Turtle and TUN are on but do nothing and TUN self-votes. This makes sense because all active trains are V - in an E!Turtle or E!TUN world, there's just no real need to care or get involved with the lynch.

Wiz gives us our final result by swapping off Stick and onto Shqueeves, breaking the tie.

TUN does self-vote for no apparent reason.

Quote

Silho (2): Stick, Illwei
Shqueeves (4): Kas, Silho, Mat, Wiz
Stick (2): Conq, JNV
TUN (1): TUN

I'll summarise the main insights later.

Summary:

-On D2, main movements at the end came from my two strongest Village reads. I am inclined to think that apart from the train staying stable on JNV for 3/4 the cycle, no Elim really came under serious pressure. This explains why the cycle felt stable and low temperature. I think that this still inclines me, contra some of the thread, to look at the low activity bracket of <Turtle, TUN, Archer> for our Elims.

-From a vote movement perspective, Illwei going on Silho doesn't look that great. But I also feel that the timing of Illwei going on Silho happened when JNV put Stick in the lead. I don't really see it as train dilution. I also think Illwei vehemently underscoring V!Stick was crucial in changing the thread mood towards Stick. So I would if pressed to give my read on Illwei this instant lean V instead of E. On top of the D1 vote considerations already.

-I think Silho looks fairly V from D1 - you'd expect JNV-Silho contact to have been choreographed in the doc, and Silho's refusal to move a vote that left the Xino train viable in response to a teammate's prodding feels very V to me. Also worth noting I get a N2 Village vibe from engagement with Silho, though I'll be the first to note Silho always tonally fools me. Nonetheless, I am okay with V!Silho.

-I don't see how anyone can look at D1 and D2 and not accept V!Stick. JNV is happy to vote at 2.5 hours to rollover to kill Stick. D1 JNV voting on Stick would be bringing a teammate into contention with the other lead trains - a risky move in any game without consistent vote manip. (Cf. LG74.) I am okay with this read.

-At this juncture, I am going to read the posts of <TUN, Turtle, Archer/Symph> for more thoughts.

-I don't really know why Archer feels the need to challenge Wiz to test Wiz's conviction though. Like, suppose you're Village. The mere fact that no one else is contesting Wiz's claim and everyone has checked in or will check in (in my case) should be good enough. So what is the point of this challenge? It feels superfluous and like an easy climbdown from an attempt to bluff. Happy to hear thoughts on this as I'm not sold on my view, but I don't really see the whole 'could not have put in the kill' deal and tbf, while I have very, very thin and fallible grounds to V!read TUN and Turtle (mentioned previously; TUN's retraction and Turtle's unnecessary shade on Araris), I don't have anything on Archer at all. Since JNV could have put in the kill, I don't really consider it an exoneration. I agree Archer should've checked first, but Archer is hardly the only player who doesn't check first, hi Gnoandngdujeoindingdong @Matrim's Dice, @Devotary of Spontaneity, @Kasimir.

This is where I'm at. Thoughts, comments, questions?

[Ashbringer he/him]

Minor clarifications:

• Multiple kills targeting the same individual are not distinguished.
• The Protect from Blessing of Presence does block multiple kills.
• The Elim kill and Potency kill happen simultaneously, so neither disrupts the other.

[Kasimir he/him]

7 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Minor clarifications:

• Multiple kills targeting the same individual are not distinguished.
• The Protect from Blessing of Presence does block multiple kills.
• The Elim kill and Potency kill happen simultaneously, so neither disrupts the other.

@Turtle To be fair, Archer already clarified he was bluffing.

See, my main issue with the counterclaiming thing is - there's no reasonable world in which E!Wiz fakeclaims this anyway without committing suicide. A V!Coinshot active enough to shoot JNV is active enough to dispute the fakeclaim in thread. The best E!Wiz hopes for is a 1v1 with the actual Coinshot, and if we lynch the actual Coinshot, Wiz is dead. If not, then Wiz dies immediately. Ggwp. So where is the incentive to lie?

Why is this something that even 'needs' a test in the first place?

@The Unknown Novel Just to make sure, you did not shoot JNV, right?

Sure, it could be a reaction test. But in the bigger picture, why was there a need for a reaction test in the first place? What does it really, functionally achieve that wasn't already achieved by the lack of a challenge to Wiz?

Edited to add: I will accept that Archer is probably screwed if he challenges Wiz and Wiz is flipped, though I suppose Turtle isn't wrong that multiple kills might be the line played if Wiz hadn't pointed out the sign-in times. But I don't see the incentive for a reaction test either, and I'm wary of the polar bear.

Edited September 24, 2022 by Kasimir

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

Just wanted to point this out from yesterday:

19 hours ago, JNV said:

If anyone has potency blessing maybe take a shot at Novel or Wizard the complete black boxes or maybe dont so we can make them waste any protection they have or do it or dont confuse them make it hard to tell 

 

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Shining Silhouette said:

Just wanted to point this out from yesterday:

How would you interpret it?

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

Just now, Kasimir said:

How would you interpret it?

Not completely sure what "complete black boxes" means but I'm thinking it might be a point towards V!TUN

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Shining Silhouette said:

Not completely sure what "complete black boxes" means but I'm thinking it might be a point towards V!TUN

He's complaining that TUN and Wiz can't be read, i.e. 'black boxes', you can see their outputs and inputs but can't see their inner workings. Wouldn't disagree with your take - being willing to call an airstrike on your teammate does seem a bit out of it.

1 hour ago, Shining Silhouette said:

he seems so genuinely annoyed that we would even consider him as a candidate this games because of everything that's happened.

I will say part of me is resigned to V!Illwei always having a paranoia jerk onto me just as V!me and V!Mat usually paranoia shuffle squat each other. But I'm happy to be perfectly upfront that this is a bit of a gamble - from an optimisation perspective, it obviously doesn't help the Village if I agree to be lynched like this, knowing I am a Villager, since we really don't want to be lynching Villagers. My sense however is that we basically can afford this, a number of people have mentioned procrastinating on me or keeping me in neutral and then coming back to me, and I think it's a distraction and the actual pool we should be looking at is <Turtle, Archer, TUN.> Happy to throw in <Illwei> as well but I'm not really feeling E!Illwei right now.

So all I'm really doing is forcing the issue and saying - if you need me gone, I will self-vote and vote-manip to seal my lynch. I don't expect there to be a conclusive defense of my D1 or D2 because I agree my D1 was off and I voted JNV then unvoted, and led the Shqueeves pivot, so if the flip is necessary, sometimes that's the best thing you can do for your team. I can see that perspective. If so, I expect you all to focus after my flip and to please go refine your suspicions. Also hopefully relook at some of my thoughts with knowledge of my alignment. 

If you've decided not to, then let's please stop going back in this circle - the paint hasn't even dried on N2 - and get down to business. I don't want us to be repeatedly circulating this and missing where I feel the correct suspect pool is. I could be wrong, of course, but that's the point of thread discussion. So that's sort of my thought process rather than annoyance - impatience, I guess.

Obviously I don't propose this if I'm not fine with either outcome, but my current calculus is I don't want to be dealing with this repeatedly and we can afford this, so I'd rather force the issue and force a decision and then accept whatever decision is made and throw as much thoughts as I can in the process for everyone to bounce off.

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

34 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

but I don't really see the whole 'could not have put in the kill' deal and tbf,

Yeah, I most just unvoted him because he couldn't have been evil for putting in the kill. I'm gonna lean Archer.