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Mid-Range Game 60: Overexposure


Archer

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2 hours ago, Mark IV said:

Looking at individual posts though, JNV's post followed by Shining's switch stand out to me a little, but I can't seem to decide how to read it. On one hand, JNV's post is a little random and echoey without adding any substance to the discussion, really, but that's not saying much in itself. It is C1, and there really isn't much to be said (or wasn't at the time anyway). The vote seems a little bandwagon-ey to me as well but doesn't read e!JNV for the same reason danex doesn't read elim - it's too random and "loud". 

Well, since our discussion has been mostly uneventful and quiet, I thought I'd shake it up a bit :P.

I wanted to see what would happen, so I kept my vote on Danex even though he wasn't my strongest suspect. I voted JNV to shake things up because their post seemed didn't contribute- it seemed a little opportunistic to me after my vote and Mark's concerns. Though I also can see V!JNV being pressed for time and voting for an easy train.

All these votes on JNV make me a little nervous, though. I voted partially to set off a fringe vote, to encourage conversation, but now there have been several switches onto JNV without an opportunity for them to defend themselves. 

I've been thinking, and I think I'll unvote JNV for now. I know my vote has been especially volatile, but the past couple of games I've gone against my gut many times to lynch villagers. I'd prefer acting with my gut this MR. 

@JNV, I'd like to hear more of your thoughts. You're not entirely off the hook, though.

Edit: Ahhhh I've changed my mind again. I'll keep my vote, JNV, at least until you respond.

Edited by Shining Silhouette
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4 hours ago, Shining Silhouette said:

In the meta, how often do teammates frankly defend each other?

Depends on how in danger they are/how much the individual players are willing to risk. JNV just came from a game where they strictly opposed one of their teammates (Stick(, so it's far from a guarantee. Wiz but more Mat and Conq's votes are interesting because they aren't on the person they thought was elim with the most votes(any votee not JNV/JNV/Mat or JNV), which makes me think it's less likely those three are motivated by making sure a teammate is safe.

3 hours ago, Mark IV said:

What would "allied" mean here exactly?

Allied more 'having the same opinions' than 'on the same team'.

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Cycle Two: Focus

Image heavy writeup:

Spoiler

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Unrestricted Investigative member of The Press The Unknown Novel was killed by the Polaroid Gang. JNV was followed in the Snapshot under suspicion of murder, but they were an honest Unrestricted Informed member of The Press.

The votes were:

JNV (5): Devo, Shining, Wiz, Mark

Mat (2): Conq, Dannnex

Wiz (1): Mat

Danex (1): JNV

Devo (1): Xino

Additional notes:

Rules clarification: The exe and NK occur simultaneously.

Inactivity warning: @Tani, please come join us!

Players remaining:

Spoiler

1. Matrim's Dice as Marty Meeker, who holds a top column job despite having never lurnd to spel

2. The Wandering Wizard, as Jimmie Hesler, a journalist who ends up writing about cats instead of important events

3. The Unknown Novel as Ethan "Echo" Elmer, a reporter with the Epic power to project his mind to hear and see anywhere he wishes Full Investigative 

4. Illwei as an uncredited ghostwriter. (No relation to Wilim)

5. Shining Silhouette as Sil, the illiterate exec who's really good at getting people to do their jobs. (Likely Marty's employer)

6. Tani as Wilim, the actual ghost who lives in the printer

7. Conquestor as Tommy, Son of Gun!

8. Xinoehp512 as Gun

9. JNV as Jenny Wise a new reporter trying to get a big score Full Informed

10. Dannnex as Peter Parker

11. Mark IV as Mark

12. Devotary of Spontaneity as as investigative journalist Earring, hoping to quell the wave of spurious arrests that the simulator encourages

This Cycle will run until between 4pm and 8pm EST on October 13th, with the earliest closing time being around 47 hours from now. 

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Dang it! I got busier than I wanted to... I also didn't take into account the fact that I'm in the MST timezone... I'll do better this cycle! Anyways... 

I definitely agree that TUN was a weird kill. Did he even say anything last cycle? If not then I would chalk it up to a "low info kill". Who is more inclined to do that as an Elim? I remember that Kas, Fifth, and Devo did it in the last MR (evil Librarians) but I can't remember who else has done it. 

It's also unfortunate that we lost two information roles. They were both Unrestricted, which was also interesting. Also, I'm suspecting that whoever the vote doubler was, is likely to be vil. I do doubt that the whole train was pure, so I'll go back and look later. My biggest question is, was someone trying to protect people last cycle? 

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Very quick rollover we had there. I wonder if archer is taking into account activity levels. Like, if the thread is busy, he'll let it go longer, and if it's dead, he cuts it off asap. Maybe it's predetermined and random. hmmm. 

We got an extra vote on JNV. That's weird. Possibly concerning.

5 votes is a lot for a C1 vote. Everyone was that confident on a complete guess???

Makes me think there's at least one elim among those voters. Out of the 4 of them, I feel like TWW gave the least amount of justification for their vote. Any thoughts on how the JNV bandwagon turned out @The Wandering Wizard? Any idea where that extra vote came from?

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19 minutes ago, dannnnnnex said:

Very quick rollover we had there. I wonder if archer is taking into account activity levels. Like, if the thread is busy, he'll let it go longer, and if it's dead, he cuts it off asap. Maybe it's predetermined and random. hmmm. 

Rollover times are pre-determined and uninfluenced by player activity

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28 minutes ago, dannnnnnex said:

Makes me think there's at least one elim among those voters. Out of the 4 of them, I feel like TWW gave the least amount of justification for their vote. Any thoughts on how the JNV bandwagon turned out @The Wandering Wizard? Any idea where that extra vote came from?

Honestly I didn't really like my vote on Shining and I felt better about it on JNV. How wrong I was.. The train probably contains atleast one elim. Extra vote either came from elim's trying to cause chaos or a villager taking a chance. Should probably keep an eye on all four to see if they double their vote next round. Could also be someone else on the train doubling, this round, but might show if they are unrestricted, odd, or even. More thoughts later after dinner.

Edited by The Wandering Wizard
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2 hours ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

Train pure or not?

Don't have time to analyze right now, TUN is a strange kill.

Doubtful. I also disagree that TUN was a strange kill, it’s just a by the book low info kill.

Happy to add pressure to Wiz and I do want to reread C1, though something tells me that I won’t get much out of it due to how low temperature it was.

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10 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

How far ahead are they pre-determined?

They get posted in the dead doc when the Cycle begins. There's more that goes into it that has been discussed with the IM, but I'd prefer to keep those details vague. Discussion about this puts me in an awkward position because I'd like to reduce your ability to meta-game or appear to influence my decisions. So look over there! It's a vote count!

Very Important Vote Count:

Wiz (2): Danex, Mat

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2 hours ago, dannnnnnex said:

5 votes is a lot for a C1 vote. Everyone was that confident on a complete guess???

 

Not really, just, alright a little bit of confidence and caught off guard by the cycle closing so soon. 

 

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Doubtful. I also disagree that TUN was a strange kill, it’s just a by the book low info kill.

 

I don't know any elim doctrine as I was elim by myself once and haven't been evil since. 

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Happy to add pressure to Wiz and I do want to reread C1, though something tells me that I won’t get much out of it due to how low temperature it was.

 

Shining voted and stayed on JNV for reasons similar to my own. I tried to fight against my gut instinct, but I eventually went with it as I didn't really believe in e!shining, and was totally wrong, about JNV being evil. Better to trust my gut than to take a random stab in the dark, in my opinion. 

6 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

you still need to eat another 32 eggs though if you want to be like Gaston

That song is now stuck in my head

=================================

Jimmie starts humming a song to himself

No one's slick as Gaston

No one's quick as Gaston.

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Hmmm. There isn't a lot to go off of last cycle, but I did notice something that did peak my interest... Devo, you seem to be voting much earlier in the cycle than you usually do. Why is that? I know that multiple people have brought up something about Devo constantly changing her playstyle to make it hard to tell whether she is an elim or not. It was said though, that she especially switches things up when she is an elim. I don't really know if that applies here, but that's what I got. She also jumped on to JNV with Shining, after Wizard and Mat were voted for... Diluting the voting pool, protecting someone, or a random vote? Too many possibilities!

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Sorry I haven't been here, my Father found a little plot of land in seattle that is like 2000 sq ft and i have spent the past few days with trying to design a little house to fit on the land as a little hyperfixation

Also just got off one of the most exhausting Elim games of my life even though Idk if i can say that when i was only alive 3 days

Low info kills are generally made when an Elim is widely village read/is very present in the game, and either those village reading them are widely village read, or they have teammates that are the same @Conquestor.

I still like Mat and Shining,

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5 hours ago, Conquestor said:

Hmmm. There isn't a lot to go off of last cycle, but I did notice something that did peak my interest... Devo, you seem to be voting much earlier in the cycle than you usually do. Why is that? I know that multiple people have brought up something about Devo constantly changing her playstyle to make it hard to tell whether she is an elim or not. It was said though, that she especially switches things up when she is an elim. I don't really know if that applies here, but that's what I got. She also jumped on to JNV with Shining, after Wizard and Mat were voted for... Diluting the voting pool, protecting someone, or a random vote? Too many possibilities!

I assume Devo voted earlier because the cycle’s end is ambiguous, so she can’t safely vote close to the end of the cycle in this game.

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15 hours ago, Conquestor said:

I definitely agree that TUN was a weird kill. Did he even say anything last cycle? If not then I would chalk it up to a "low info kill". Who is more inclined to do that as an Elim? I remember that Kas, Fifth, and Devo did it in the last MR (evil Librarians) but I can't remember who else has done it. 

It's also unfortunate that we lost two information roles. They were both Unrestricted, which was also interesting. Also, I'm suspecting that whoever the vote doubler was, is likely to be vil. I do doubt that the whole train was pure, so I'll go back and look later. My biggest question is, was someone trying to protect people last cycle? 

Are C1 kills not always low-info kills? From when I was an elim, we'd usually not target active or vocal players on C1 cause it just leads to a less active mid and late game in general. Plus, I'd expect elims don't want to give away too many connections too quickly, unless it'es really worth the risk to silence someone (possibly for misdirection). At least, that's my take, and why I feel there's not much point reading into the low-info kill this early. Maybe it might tell more late game though, idk.

 

14 hours ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

Honestly I didn't really like my vote on Shining and I felt better about it on JNV. How wrong I was..

Might have been wrong either way. :/

Quote

The train probably contains atleast one elim. Extra vote either came from elim's trying to cause chaos or a villager taking a chance. Should probably keep an eye on all four to see if they double their vote next round. Could also be someone else on the train doubling, this round, but might show if they are unrestricted, odd, or even. More thoughts later after dinner.

I personally suspect the vote doubler was village. (Leaving aside the possibility of a very paranoid e!Mat for a moment) Elims have no reason to double their vote so early into the game and reveal their abilities. And besides, the vote was stacked 4 vs 2 vs 1 vs ..., which might make a village Influencer think it'd be a safe occasion to announce their presence, because strengthening their vote on a candidate already two in the lead is very likely not going to change the outcome.

One might, on the other hand, consider the possibility of a paranoid e!Mat, cause they were second in line with 2 votes on them, and an Influential on Mat and Slanderer on JNV could have possibly changed the outcome (though the scenario is unlikely, but I am assuming a paranoid elim team here). However, it's just too blatant and unlikely that this is indeed what happened here. I'd think there'd be better ways of counteracting this possibility for the elim team. And it's also unlikely that the elim team is this paranoid (at least, not yet?). So, I'm rather inclined to believe that the extra vote came from a village odd/unrestricted Influencer.  

 

12 hours ago, Illwei said:

i ate 18 eggs this week

Egg

Egg

I feel like I had something more to say, but eh, can't remember it now. 

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10 hours ago, Conquestor said:

you seem to be voting much earlier in the cycle than you usually do. Why is that?

I knew I wouldn't have much time before the earliest rollover could be and wanted to make sure I had a vote. Dilution had already occurred with single votes instead of doubling up on suspects (Mat voting Wiz instead of JNV, you voting Mat instead of Shining or JNV).

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Quote
  On 10/10/2022 at 0:53 AM, The Unknown Novel said:

Hi. PMs are a big no-no for me, any chance of failure is too much. 

@Archer,  will PM blocked kills show as attacked but survived, or what?

Surely, a small chance for primary role block is worth the risk of a few PMs (especially in "inactive role" cycles")? I assume this mechanic is balanced by the fact that roles can be even/odd and the only other primary action available is a coin search, which is a jackpot anyway. 

This might also hint at what (even/odd/unfiltered) type of role someone has, possibly?

Though, I guess, if you really value your role that much, who am I to say otherwise? :ph34r:

^This is me quoting myself, emphasis mine.

I just remembered I guessed at TUN having an important role. This might also be why the elims chose them for the elim kill; the kill could possibly have been based on similar  reasoning like this.

Not sure what this tells us really, but I thought I'd point it out now that I saw it. 

 

E: Oh, and I forgot to add - The writeup's really nice XD

Edited by Mark IV
Praise the writeup!
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