Mid-Range Game 60: Overexposure

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

I can see Mat and Shining as teammates (Shining keeping his vote on JNV to make sure Mat didn't die). @Shining Silhouette, who would you have voted for had JNV responded?

If Wizard is an elim, interesting that he didn't try to start a new train or vote me after unvoting Mat given that Wizard's one of two candidates. I can't see an unrestricted vote doubler being an elim unless it's a team of two so that's likely not why.

[Conquestor he/him]

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(Illwei) Low info kills are generally made when an Elim is widely village read/is very present in the game, and either those village reading them are widely village read, or they have teammates that are the same @Conquestor.

Okay, that makes sense given my experience. I would assume that the elims are some of the more active ones this game. Given how helpful you've been and how much you are playing like your vil games, I'm going to v-lean you. Since you are way better at reading Mat than I am, I'm gonna trust you on this one and put Mat in my V-lean camp.

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

The worst part about this is that neither Devo vote means anything

Ouch! What do you mean you my vote doesn't mean anything? I agree that my reasoning wasn't perfect, but I was going based on my hunch and what I saw as potential elim activity.

Speaking of which I agree that Wiz is acting very elimmy. He just seems very sensitive to being labeled as an elim.

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That is a amazing writeup.

I'm not going to make the same mistake as last time Mat..

Also, this is an interesting post by Wizard...

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I needed a refresh as well but I think I understand now. PM's? Send a few. I will have variable activity as well as lower activity.

The only problem I'm running into is that it is really hard to see who would be teamed with Wiz...

[---]

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

The worst part about this is that neither Devo vote means anything

It probably means something about wiz, tbh.

[Mat he/him]

30 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

Ouch! What do you mean you my vote doesn't mean anything? I agree that my reasoning wasn't perfect, but I was going based on my hunch and what I saw as potential elim activity.

Not a comment on you, I just meant that your reasoning was disproved almost immediately and xino himself said he had none.

 

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

Well, change of plans. I no longer have time to make a longer post this cycle. I might try later if we have a later rollover by the time I get back.

2 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I can see Mat and Shining as teammates (Shining keeping his vote on JNV to make sure Mat didn't die). @Shining Silhouette, who would you have voted for had JNV responded?

I didn't feel good about them being the elim, so I probably would have actually moved my vote, and the only other one up for lynch was Mat, who I don't have strong suspicions towards at the moment. Honestly, I'd probably have moved mine to Mat to let RNG decide.

47 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

Speaking of which I agree that Wiz is acting very elimmy.

I agree with your agreement.

Wiz, cause I don't have as much time as I thought to analyse

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

12 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

I didn't feel good about them being the elim, so I probably would have actually moved my vote, and the only other one up for lynch was Mat, who I don't have strong suspicions towards at the moment. Honestly, I'd probably have moved mine to Mat to let RNG decide.

Did you have suspicions about Mat at the time? What changed your mind if so?

Elim Wizard likely is with at least one of Conq or Xino. Neither of them can be the vote doubler so e!Wizard not voting in self-defense is strange. I dislike Shining saying he would have voted for Mat to "tie" it but now doesn't suspect him. That seems like a way to avoid voting for a teammate.

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

I've got a concert I have to go to in a few minutes so.

Spoiler

 

[Conquestor he/him]

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Not a comment on you, I just meant that your reasoning was disproved almost immediately and xino himself said he had none.

 

Oh no, I was being dramatic, don't worry, I wasn't hurt by the comment!  I was also curious as to why you did say that though. Also, I went back and looked, apparently she voted 3 hours before the cycle ended and I believe and hour or so before the cycle could've ended. It just felt soon, because there were a bunch of posts after she voted...

Vote Count:

Wizard: Danex, Mat, Shining

Devo: Conq, Xino

Shining: Devo

1 hour ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Did you have suspicions about Mat at the time? What changed your mind if so?

Elim Wizard likely is with at least one of Conq or Xino. Neither of them can be the vote doubler so e!Wizard not voting in self-defense is strange. I dislike Shining saying he would have voted for Mat to "tie" it but now doesn't suspect him. That seems like a way to avoid voting for a teammate.

Wait... Elim wizard means that me or Xino are teamed with wizard... Why? Wizard also seems suspicious because his playstyle has changed up, yes? (Among other things) Would we really expect wizard not to save himself both cycles??? If he's an elim, his teammates either don't like him, or they were planning something tricky. 

@Mark IV Mark, you seem rather quiet and your vote on JNV last cycle is both very analytical, but also backtracked on itself a lot, as though you wanted to make sure you could back out of your assumptions if they became dangerous to have. The biggest one is JNV where you talk about how his post isn't elim but change your mind for info gathering, which isn't an inherently bad reason, but who are you vil and elim reading currently? You also said that Mat and Devo would be good to look into if JNV flipped elim, but that because you hadn't read them as elim yet, you wouldn't feel comfortable analysing them. Did you mean deeply or at all? 

@Matrim's Dice I just want to clarify, why did you see the vote count 1,1,1, say that was pitiful and then vote Tani to make it 1,1,1,1?

[danex he/him]

I no longer like a Wiz exe

also we are deep into danger time, cycle could end at any moment.

[Archer he/him]

Uh oh! This round is over. Did you make the right decisions? 

[Archer he/him]

Cycle Three: Shoot

"A letter came for you, Chief. I think it might be a confession from one of the Gang members."
"Splendid! But you know my entire family is illiterate, please read it out for me."

"When I was a lad I ate one dozen eggs,
And worked on my writing, dear Sarge.
And now that I'm grown I eat eighteen eggs,
And build houses the size of a barge!

No one writes like Anon,
And crime fights like Anon.
Need to light a match, nobody lights like Anon!
I'm especially good at unexculpating...
Here's more points on Anon!"

"Skip to the end."
"Blah, blah, blah, oh. This is not a confession, but an anonymous tip. I was working on a story near the City's Dental Appliance Armory when I overheard two people shouting at each other. I think it was Jimmie Hessler and Peter Parker, who I've since learned was murdered last night. You should check that out."
"Ah ha! A wonderful lead! Bring them in, Sargent. Then help me get that song out of my head!"

***

Odd Influential member of The Press Dannnnnex was killed by the Polaroid Gang. The Wandering Wizard was followed in the Snapshot under suspicion of murder, but they were an honest Odd Influential member of The Press.

The votes were:

Wiz (2): Mat, Shining

Mark (1): Conq

Shining (1): Devo

Devo (1): Xino

Additional notes:

-Please welcome _Stick_ to the game! They're replacing Tani

-Please remember to green out unvotes

Players remaining:

Spoiler

 

1. Matrim's Dice as Marty Meeker, who holds a top column job despite having never lurnd to spel

2. The Wandering Wizard, as Jimmie Hesler, a journalist who ends up writing about cats instead of important events  Odd Influential 

3. The Unknown Novel as Ethan "Echo" Elmer, a reporter with the Epic power to project his mind to hear and see anywhere he wishes Full Investigative 

4. Illwei as an uncredited ghostwriter. (No relation to Wilim)

5. Shining Silhouette as Sil, the illiterate exec who's really good at getting people to do their jobs. (Likely Marty's employer)

6. Stick/Tani as Wilim, the actual ghost who lives in the printer

7. Conquestor as Tommy, Son of Gun!

8. Xinoehp512 as Gun

9. JNV as Jenny Wise a new reporter trying to get a big score Full Informed

10. Dannnex as Peter Parker  Odd Influential 

11. Mark IV as Mark

12. Devotary of Spontaneity as as investigative journalist Earring, hoping to quell the wave of spurious arrests that the simulator encourages

 

This Cycle will run until between 4pm and 8pm EST on October 15th.

Edited October 14, 2022 by Archer

[Mat he/him]

Sorry, the cycle end window is directly during the one time of day I can’t be in the thread. Dunno what I would have done though.

Much more sympathetic to Conq and Devo’s votes than before, I’ll give it another look.

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

Hmm. Sorry, Wiz. Hoping you find your strategy

2 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Did you have suspicions about Mat at the time? What changed your mind if so?

Elim Wizard likely is with at least one of Conq or Xino. Neither of them can be the vote doubler so e!Wizard not voting in self-defense is strange. I dislike Shining saying he would have voted for Mat to "tie" it but now doesn't suspect him. That seems like a way to avoid voting for a teammate.

Well, I saw JNV as comparatively less suspicious than Mat and the only thing that I could do to stop JNV from being lynched would be to tie the vote. If I voted anywhere else, my vote would've been killed by the JNV train. It didn't end up happening, but I think a tie with one (comparatively) more suspicious player and one less suspicious is better than a lynch of the less suspicious player.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

@Conquestor e!Wizard would have implied you or Xino as elims since you were the only people voting for someone other than Wizard.

17 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

Well, I saw JNV as comparatively less suspicious than Mat and the only thing that I could do to stop JNV from being lynched would be to tie the vote. If I voted anywhere else, my vote would've been killed by the JNV train.

Yes, but why was Mat more suspicious and why has that changed since cycle 1 that Mat went from 'willing to vote' to 'not willing to vote'?

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

Just now, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Yes, but why was Mat more suspicious and why has that changed since cycle 1 that Mat went from 'willing to vote' to 'not willing to vote'?

I'm not sure I understand what you mean, but for me, it wasn't so much that Mat was more suspicious but that JNV was more villagerly.

Being "not suspicious" is not the same as vil lean in my book and is thus comparatively "more suspicious" on the spectrum.

I.e.

Vil

(slight) Vil lean

Not suspicious / not villagerly

(slight) Elim lean

Elim

 

[---]

Devo not flipping onto wiz when they were tied is a good look unless devo and wiz are teamed.

I think the moving rollover time isn't as fun to play as i thought it'd be lfmao

[Conquestor he/him]

I'm just going to quote myself because I have questions that I posted EoD...

Quote

@Mark IV Mark, you seem rather quiet and your vote on JNV last cycle is both very analytical, but also backtracked on itself a lot, as though you wanted to make sure you could back out of your assumptions if they became dangerous to have. The biggest one is JNV where you talk about how his post isn't elim but change your mind for info gathering, which isn't an inherently bad reason, but who are you vil and elim reading currently? You also said that Mat and Devo would be good to look into if JNV flipped elim, but that because you hadn't read them as elim yet, you wouldn't feel comfortable analysing them. Did you mean deeply or at all? 

@Matrim's Dice I just want to clarify, why did you see the vote count 1,1,1, say that was pitiful and then vote Tani to make it 1,1,1,1?

Okay, we are down to two-thirds of the players that we started with. I guess I'll start with Mark for now, but we'll see what happens.

[Stick. she/her]

Hi guys!!

I need to go read the rules plus read the first two cycles to see what’s up but be warned - I have exams and am also currently in Singapore sooo

Will try not to replace inactivity with inactivity  

[Mat he/him]

14 hours ago, Conquestor said:

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@Matrim's Dice I just want to clarify, why did you see the vote count 1,1,1, say that was pitiful and then vote Tani to make it 1,1,1,1?

 

Lol. When you put it like that it makes it obvious I wasn't thinking about it at all, doesn't it

I voted Tani as an inactivity poke in response to a less than productive VC but you're right that those don't really correlate together.

[Conquestor he/him]

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Lol. When you put it like that it makes it obvious I wasn't thinking about it at all, doesn't it

I voted Tani as an inactivity poke in response to a less than productive VC but you're right that those don't really correlate together.

I figured that's why you voted Tani, it was just kind of funny! 

Also, @_Stick_welcome! Appreciate you stepping in, even though your busy!

Also, are we just going to let Mark die? So far my vote is the only vote out this cycle which might mean that he's not an elim because no one seems to care that he'll die... @Mark IVI,  are you around? 

[Mark IV he/him]

I'm writing a post! Give me some time! XD

I keep getting distracted and start doing other things and then come back and forget my line of thought. 

[Mark IV he/him]

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Lol. When you put it like that it makes it obvious I wasn't thinking about it at all, doesn't it

I voted Tani as an inactivity poke in response to a less than productive VC but you're right that those don't really correlate together.

It still makes sense to me? 3 single votes == less activity == poke vote inactive players == poke vote Tani. While it is true that it seems counterproductive to increase 3x1 votes to 4x1, if it had had the intended effect and Tani had replied, you would have (likely) removed the vote anyway. *shrug*

17 hours ago, Conquestor said:

I'm just going to quote myself because I have questions that I posted EoD...

Quote

@Mark IV Mark, you seem rather quiet and your vote on JNV last cycle is both very analytical, but also backtracked on itself a lot, as though you wanted to make sure you could back out of your assumptions if they became dangerous to have. The biggest one is JNV where you talk about how his post isn't elim but change your mind for info gathering, which isn't an inherently bad reason, but who are you vil and elim reading currently? You also said that Mat and Devo would be good to look into if JNV flipped elim, but that because you hadn't read them as elim yet, you wouldn't feel comfortable analysing them. Did you mean deeply or at all? 

Okay, we are down to two-thirds of the players that we started with. I guess I'll start with Mark for now, but we'll see what happens.

Sorry I didn't reply earlier. EoD is really in the middle of the night for me, so I can't respond to those posts in time. While I can read the thread during my daytime, right now is really the only time I can properly reply. 

Coming to your post last cycle, yes, I did try to analyse the JNV-Shining situation as I saw it and yes, I was very hesitant about my vote on JNV. Truth be told, I don't like voting D1 because I don't really have any solid reads on anyone, which is why I was as hesitant as my post made me out to be. I did also mention, as you point out, that I was voting for JNV mostly for information purposes and that I didn't exactly have a solid read on them and would have possibly changed my vote if they had replied and made new points. However, to be fair, I don't see how anyone is supposed to be sure of their C1 votes. The only difference here is that I expressed my hesitation the way I did.

As for my silence last cycle, I was somewhat against the votes on Wiz last cycle. But to me, it looked like the reasoning behind those votes was primarily Wiz's change in behaviour from his past games, which I had no way to evaluate, which is why I didn't say much towards the end of last cycle; I felt it would be better to observe instead. I did wonder if I should make a post before signing off for the day saying I don't want to vote for this reason, but decided against it. I don't have much more to say in this regard. 

At the moment, I have a gut feeling about Shining and Mat. Mat's early defend for Shining and subsequent crosshairs on Wiz still seem somewhat off to me, but I'll have to reread C1/2 for that. Sure, while it may not exactly have been tunneling, it still rung some bells at the time. Again, I'll have to reread C1/2 to find out/remember why. 

As for Devo, idr my reasoning at the time. Though, yes, it has been 2 cycles now, I think I can get onto doing bad analysis now. I think my earlier reluctance was mostly because everyone felt like a blank slate at the time and I didn't want to read into things just for the sake of finding something.

While I have a gut elim read on Shining, his C1/2 actions still make me think he's village when I think about it. His flip from danex to JNV, knowing now that both are village, and his later questioning of 

Change of mind - rereading the last cycle still makes me think Shining could be evil? Shining's last quarter vote broke the tie between Devo and Wiz. This was followed by Devo voting for Shining saying she didn't like his response to voting/not voting for Mat. Idk right now, really. I feel like I've forgotten most of C1/2 already. 

I think I'll reread C1/2 and then post an analysis. 

@Conquestor Anything else you'd like me to answer? I know my answers are mostly "I don't remember" and "I wasn't sure", which is not very informative and an easy out for an elim. There's not much I can do about not having been sure about stuff at the time, but I intend to post again once I've reread C1/2 with special focus on Mat, Shining and Devo. 

Also, what was Xino's vote on Devo last cycle? Conq also mentioned it. It felt much more like a C1 thing to do. @xinoehp512 was there really no reason for your vote Devo?

 

E: Oh, also, welcome, Stick! Long time! 

Edited October 14, 2022 by Mark IV

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

The best part about being suspected is that I live much longer.

At least until I don't.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

19 hours ago, Shining Silhouette said:

I'm not sure I understand what you mean, but for me, it wasn't so much that Mat was more suspicious but that JNV was more villagerly.

Being "not suspicious" is not the same as vil lean in my book and is thus comparatively "more suspicious" on the spectrum.

Hmm okay, so Mat didn't jump up to village lean in the second cycle. What do you think of him now?

[Mark IV he/him]

Welp, having read from C1 to now, Devo certainly wins the award for most interesting posts in my book. She got 3/6 star marks!! 

First, just a little overview of my reads after rereading the game - I'm heavily leaning village on Conq. Their posts seem like their just genuinely pursuing whatever leads they find and it just feels vill in general. I can't put it into words well.

I'm leaning somewhat village on Devo as well, though it does waver a little at times. But, overall, they tend to make points I agree with (on reread, at least) and some good observations as well.

Illwei is just confusing . Their normal posts don't have much info or analysis. Their Wiz vote on C2 is mirrored by their Wiz vote on C1 as well. So, while it is still odd, it's not as unexpected as I initially thought. Conq apparently trusts Xino and Xino trusts Mat and Shining so Conq trusts Mat (to an extent). Xino made a cryptic post C2 about the "meaningless votes on Devo" meaning something about Wiz. My initial reaction was to think they meant that the Devo votes were elim votes to save an e!Wiz. But then I realised one of the Devo votes was Xino themself, which just confused me even more. *shrug*

What I had initially called as Mat tunnelling on Wiz between cycles was, as Mat later pointed out, not Mat tunnelling on Wiz between cycles.

Interesting Posts:

C1:

Spoiler

On 11/10/2022 at 10:45 AM, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I don't see e!Danex actually wanting Mat dead, since he gets exed early fairly frequently. An easy place to put a vote without having to explain reasoning possibly, but I don't remember e!Danex games.

Conq hits Mat hits Wizard hits Shining hits JNV hits Danex hits Mat. Surely there's something here. JNV defends Mat while Mat attacks the person who defended JNV. Lean Mat/JNV not e/e. Less strong on Mat/Conq not e/e. Mat and Shining are allied, JNV and Wizard are allied.

Since I'm not thinking e!Danex, the latter pair is more likely to have at least one elim, especially since Shining voting JNV is inefficient if the goal was to protect e!Danex. JNV voting Danex doesn't not make sense even if it's early but is more strategic if they're on a team with Mat or Tani, more likely Tani. Makes more sense to vote JNV than Wizard at least.

@Devotary of Spontaneity If JNV defends Mat and Mat attacks JNV's defender, why does that make Mat/JNV simultaneous elims less likely? Would it not be a typical elim distancing tactic? You'd achieve distance without having actually attacked your teammate? We know now that JNV is village, so it doesn't matter as much, but I was just curious.

Both JNV & Wiz turned out to be village tho >.<

On 11/10/2022 at 10:27 PM, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Depends on how in danger they are/how much the individual players are willing to risk. JNV just came from a game where they strictly opposed one of their teammates (Stick(, so it's far from a guarantee. Wiz but more Mat and Conq's votes are interesting because they aren't on the person they thought was elim with the most votes(any votee not JNV/JNV/Mat or JNV), which makes me think it's less likely those three are motivated by making sure a teammate is safe.

Again, I don't see how the conclusion follows unless you mean if they were elims they would've just voted on the most notorious villager at the time, regardless of identity or obviousness of elim vote activity?

C2:

Spoiler

On 13/10/2022 at 11:14 PM, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I can see Mat and Shining as teammates (Shining keeping his vote on JNV to make sure Mat didn't die). @Shining Silhouette, who would you have voted for had JNV responded?

If Wizard is an elim, interesting that he didn't try to start a new train or vote me after unvoting Mat given that Wizard's one of two candidates. I can't see an unrestricted vote doubler being an elim unless it's a team of two so that's likely not why.

Now that you mention it, I kinda see how Shining and Mat could possibly be teammates. However, Mat's blatant defense of Shining on C1 seems too strong an association between elims, no?

 

On 14/10/2022 at 0:33 AM, Conquestor said:

Ouch! What do you mean you my vote doesn't mean anything? I agree that my reasoning wasn't perfect, but I was going based on my hunch and what I saw as potential elim activity.

Speaking of which I agree that Wiz is acting very elimmy. He just seems very sensitive to being labeled as an elim.

Also, this is an interesting post by Wizard...

The only problem I'm running into is that it is really hard to see who would be teamed with Wiz...

Rereading C2, I didn't really see Wiz reacting to being labelled as elim at all. He was more concerned with how his playstyle was playing out, and possibly with a tinge of disappointment over it, but not really touchy about it. What gave you the impression, @Conquestor? 

The Wizard post you quote is his first C1 post, right as the cycle started. I'd expect it's really NAI, no?

 

On 14/10/2022 at 1:00 AM, Illwei said:

It probably means something about wiz, tbh.

What could it mean about Wiz, @Illwei?

 

20 hours ago, Shining Silhouette said:

Well, I saw JNV as comparatively less suspicious than Mat and the only thing that I could do to stop JNV from being lynched would be to tie the vote. If I voted anywhere else, my vote would've been killed by the JNV train. It didn't end up happening, but I think a tie with one (comparatively) more suspicious player and one less suspicious is better than a lynch of the less suspicious player.

I don't see why you couldn't have just not voted if you felt neither target was suspicious enough to vote for? I might be misunderstanding here, but if JNV was less suspicious than Mat to you, then shouldn't your vote have been either on Mat, or on someone else or on no one, but not on JNV, even if it might not have made a difference to the vote? Maybe it was time pressure; you did mention you had no time to analyse that close to end of cycle. But I'd still like to ask this. 

 

My primary suspicion is still Shining, mostly due to his voting pattern on C1 and the Wiz vote on C2. I'm not going to vote right now as I've not typed out my reasoning yet and I'm not going to type out my reasoning right now because it is well past my bed time, and I might as well let Shining respond. Tomorrow is Saturday, so I should be able to post a little earlier than this.

Inb4 Elims are Xino and Illwei, the two people whom I have 0 reads on. >.<

Also, Dannex's last minute vote retraction was something. XD