Quick Fix 63: Simple Rules

[Ashbringer he/him]

Huh. I was expecting a bloodbath. Guess there could have been.

Archer and Xino... interesting. Xino alive. Interesting. Xino vote Archer. Also interesting.

Gazelle?

Bookwyrm for now.

 

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

NK, exe, and knife, I suppose? Yikes.

 

[The Bookwyrm he/him]

Just now, Ashbringer said:

Bookwyrm for now.

Reasoning?

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

Just now, The Bookwyrm said:

Reasoning?

Bookwyrm

[Kasimir he/him]

Hang on guys, here's a question.

The Elims killed Archer, didn't they? (We don't actually know this, since kills aren't differentiated. I guess there's a world in which Xino had a knife but...no, that's not coherent. Elim kill makes more sense, unless the knife-user was lucky. If you are a knife-user who stabbed Archer, please claim since it's one-use anyway.)

But...Archer was slated to die until I did the last minute 'save Archer' swing.

Which means the Elim who put in the kill was around at EoC.

Xino, hello there :eyes:

[Ashbringer he/him]

Just now, The Bookwyrm said:

Reasoning?

Sus

 

You voted early, but no reason. Then came back once to vote Archer, slight reason. But you around for much. JNV also make few posts, but JNV was gone long time. 12 hours. Who you think be shady?

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

The Elims killed Archer, didn't they? (We don't actually know this, since kills aren't differentiated. I guess there's a world in which Xino had a knife but...no, that's not coherent. Elim kill makes more sense, unless the knife-user was lucky. If you are a knife-user who stabbed Archer, please claim since it's one-use anyway.)

I mean it is more likely that the elim kill was on Archer just because no one died, but we don't know, right?

I feel like it's totally possible that the elim kill was on Xino and then a Knifer person villager or whatever changed their target to Archer because they wanted Archer out no matter what.

Xino barely said anything and Archer said a lot, but I guess we don't really know at this point. 

What does distro say about a two person elim team with a knife?

[xinoehp512 he/him]

If a knife gets blocked, does it get used up?

23 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Which means the Elim who put in the kill was around at EoC.

Xino, hello there :eyes:

Half the playerlist was around at EoC.  Also I finished catching up on the thread literally the moment the cycle ended.

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, xinoehp512 said:

If a knife gets blocked, does it get used up?

No.

[Kasimir he/him]

22 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

I feel like it's totally possible that the elim kill was on Xino and then a Knifer person villager or whatever changed their target to Archer because they wanted Archer out no matter what.

Tbf, I guess the Archer kill as a NK makes more sense to me. Something I was thinking about but never mentioned was that I expected Archer to have a Tent, because there's no real point in pushing for a provisional Village read otherwise - the Elims NK you, you die. I figured maybe he was trying to kill bait, so I didn't mention that. Either way, the prospect of a fairly V!read Archer seems anathema enough I'd expect an Elim kill on Archer, which is another reason why I thought the strat was kayana. I'd expect the Elims to have a negative assessment of MLing Archer after C1. Perhaps it's my own biases speaking because I sure wasn't surprised by my own N1 death in LG90.

That's also why I think the knifer should claim if they're Village (well, an Elim wanting Village cred would have to claim too.) If they don't claim, we operate on the assumption they're Evil. This isn't a Coinshot game. The player has already lost the Silver Knife, see below:

On 10/29/2022 at 11:20 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

• Silver Knife: Attack one player. If a Crewmember is killed with a Silver Knife, there is a 50% chance of the attacker dying as well, due to Shades. Vanishes after a successful use.

There's no reasonable world in which you don't claim. But I also do feel pulling the Knife out this early isn't a very Village move so IDK really. Plus the 50% chance of death if you kill a Crewmember, i.e. if you don't hit an Elim. Your odds increase closer to lylo. But maybe if you have fear of death...

I don't presume Archer would've knifed Xino at least since he was V!reading Xino.

But look, timestamps-wise:

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

One hour, thirty-three minutes remaining! Make sure to finalize votes and actions!

• Archer (4): xinoehp512, Kasimir, The Wandering Wizard, The Bookwyrm
• Turtle (2): Ashbringer, Shining Silhouette
• Kasimir (1): The Unknown Novel
• The Unknown Order (1): JNV
• The Bookwyrm (1): Turtle

Then:

Let's skip my TUN hop since nothing major happens and Archer is still in the lead.

At forty-three minutes to rollover, I switch to Turtle, making it:

Quote

• Archer (3): xinoehp512, The Wandering Wizard, The Bookwyrm
• Turtle (3): Ashbringer, Shining Silhouette, Kasimir
• Kasimir (1): The Unknown Novel
• The Unknown Order (1): JNV
• The Bookwyrm (1): Turtle

TUN has swapped at some point, but IDK I find it as relevant and I'm not doing full vote analysis right now, so let's just ignore that.

At fifteen minutes to rollover:

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

• Archer (3): xinoehp512, The Wandering Wizard, The Bookwyrm
• Turtle (3): Ashbringer, Shining Silhouette, Kasimir
• The Unknown Order (1): JNV
• The Bookwyrm (1): Turtle
• The Wandering Wizard (1): The Unknown Novel

Still tie. Which means whoever killed Archer had to be on in this window. (Ok, accepted again it could be a vig kill but if you want to be strict that we can't make this assumption, then this is still a line of investigation we should follow.)

At nine minutes, Turtle self-preses by going onto Archer, breaking the tie.

I don't want to super-litigate this, again, vote analysis later. But this means the kill happened in the nine minutes window, in my view. Elims do not want to waste the kill, and with the 50% chance of death if you are wrong, and the fact it's one-use, I can't see a knife-user blowing it away on a player who would have flipped anyway.

Who was on in that window? Me, Shining, Turtle, Ash, Xino that I can think of. Archer is obvious. Ash mentioned seeing TUN at one point. Wiz was on as well. I suppose it's possible V!TUN decided to take out Archer?

Shining, Turtle, and me I'd rule unlikely. We were too busy screaming and hopping in the window. Tracking that and putting in an appropriate kill is hard. @xinoehp512 - my counterpoint. You were detached enough from the thread to fit the profile of someone both present but disengaged enough to be able to make the kill, if so.

22 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

What does distro say about a two person elim team with a knife?

Tbh, I'd consider it a bit of a troll distro. Because think about it - the 50% death chance can't be blocked ( @Matrim's Dice, I am correct about this, right?) and as an Elim, unless you have the numbers to WGG and hit a Shade, you are basically going to be hitting a Villager. You get a free kill at a 50% chance of losing a teammate in a game that is already kinda swingy due to volatility? It is...sorta possible, but also just weird because say you run a two man Elim team. You could go one man off the bat just from this stunt. Alternatively, three Elims plus a knife seems kind of OP because you get a free kill potentially if the protects fail.

Huh.

Wait.

There are no Thugs in this game. So either Xino was self-protecting, or Xino was protected. I don't find it likely someone trusted Xino enough to protect him. Maybe Archer, but Archer had to realise he was a target. 

And I got a notif, lemme guess, I'm ninjaed >>

@Matrim's Dice - One more question. Is the roleblock written as a protect? Or if the kill is roleblocked, it's not even mentioned?

Edited to add:

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

No.

NVM DO NOT CLAIM

DO NOT PASS GO

DO NOT COLLECT $200

EDITED TO ADD 2:

WAIT NO IF YOU SUCCESSFULLY KNIFED ARCHER PLS CLAIM TY

Edited November 8, 2022 by Kasimir

[Mat he/him]

Just now, Kasimir said:

( @Matrim's Dice, I am correct about this, right?)

Yes. The 50% RNG for killing a villager with a Silver Knife cannot be blocked and is not affected by Silver Dust.

Just now, Kasimir said:

@Matrim's Dice - One more question. Is the roleblock written as a protect? Or if the kill is roleblocked, it's not even mentioned?

If the kill is roleblocked, it doesn't show up in the writeup. 

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

All I have currently is a question.

@Matrim's Dice would the person who used a knife and survived, would that be written up as they were attacked, but survived?

[Mat he/him]

Just now, The Wandering Wizard said:

@Matrim's Dice would the person who used a knife and survived, would that be written up as they were attacked, but survived?

No.

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

No.

Good to know, and there goes my easy plan to figure out knife users. 

It makes me think Xino is more likely village, than elim, but there is the possibility that he is evil and his teammates attempted to knife and he self protected. That however is very low on my list of possibilities. 

[Turtle]

9 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

Good to know, and there goes my easy plan to figure out knife users. 

It makes me think Xino is more likely village, than elim, but there is the possibility that he is evil and his teammates attempted to knife and he self protected. That however is very low on my list of possibilities. 

wait couldn’t he also be elim and someone coulda knifed him and he had a tent? 

also holy heck that eod was insane

[Kasimir he/him]

@Ashbringer - Thoughts on kill profile analysis?

Point taken from @Shining Silhouette, let's pathwalk.

A. Archer was NKed, Xino Knife-Killed

Feels like a threat kill team. The big question is IDing someone who would Knife Xino, though I know Xino's not universally V!read.

I could see Shining doing this. Probably me, it's in my known Elim MO. Maaaaybe JNV. I'm not sure. I recall what JNV said about their NK doctrine, but JNV wasn't on for thirteen hours, so that doesn't seem to make sense.

<Shining, Kas>

IDK Ash's NK doctrine anymore. Maybe? Ash probably thinks I'm pocketable. Wiz was fine with a me NK so would probably be ok with Archer NK this game.

I'd more or less assume that this team isn't secure in thread control. Which...let's be real, is a broad pool. Probably...let's see. Turtle, maybe. Bookwyrm, Xino, with a side of Shining? Yeah got it, I can't do kill profile analysis. Among other things.

B. Archer was Knife-Killed, Xino NKed

Here's the same problem, in inverse. An Elim team who NKs Xino is almost certainly a team that doesn't particularly fear thread control players. That would push me towards me, but that's not my kill doctrine. Probably Shining, Ash, JNV.

Xino - realised it doesn't matter if Xino is or isn't V. WGG is risky in this game because you can't double protects, and there's only one way Xino could have survived a kill (either flavour), which means there is one player the Elims can kill without fear if he's Village. So this is a next cycle problem.

Let's go back to the votes. We're lucky enough that we do have, circumstantially, two flips on key trains so we can form a picture of the Day, though I'd really rather have Archer alive. The relative stability all the way through EoD, where Turtle finally self-presed and most players didn't intervene makes me think we're looking at a case where the Elims felt fairly secure. Archer mentioned that he expected the Elims to have voted early in order not to forget, and then just stuck it there. I think <Ash, me, Turtle, Wiz, TUN, Xino, Shining> (just off p1, RIP that's basically nearly everyone) fits that category.

Currently...

.........

.......................

I don't like this >>

It's sorta down to Turtle/Shining for me if I hold on to my Ash and Wiz credences, and leave Xino for some other time. But worth remembering that JNV parked their vote and went offline too, and didn't come back.

JNV for the moment.

I'll do more complete vote analysis for a V/V/V world later on. I need to finish my code.

1 minute ago, Turtle said:

wait couldn’t he also be elim and someone coulda knifed him and he had a tent? 

My main problem has been trying to identify someone who would feel so strongly about E!Xino that they'd use a oneshot on Xino on C1. And risk death. I am relooking D1 but I am not finding anyone who fits that category.

[xinoehp512 he/him]

At this point I don't think there's any way we have a 3 elim team. In a 3e world, if I'm not protected last night there's a 50% chance the game just ends right there.

Ahhh C1 is chaos. I think I sus Turtle slightly because they could easily be teamed with any of the people that swung the vote to TUN.

• Bookwyrm (2): Ashbringer, Shining
• JNV (1): Kas
• Turtle (1): Xino

Edited November 8, 2022 by xinoehp512

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

1 minute ago, xinoehp512 said:

• Bookwyrm (1): Ashbringer
•  

Shining is also voting for Bookwyrm.

[Ashbringer he/him]

12 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

 

@Ashbringer - Thoughts on kill profile analysis?

My thoughts are slightly disrupted by the need to eat food before class. They have ravioli.

I agree it’s interesting Xino had a tent with them. Don’t know if this would be a good WGG game but it is an interesting possibility, and the other items are in play.

I do feel I have to wonder that Xino was protected, and not the attacker RB’d, because that happened once in a Mat game but it was a long time ago.

I can look for who would attack Xino later

 

As for who would attack Archer:

Kas Wiz Ash Book JNV Shining Xino Turtle

Active during EoD:

Kas Wiz Ash Shining Xino Turtle

Reasonably wanted Archer dead:

Wiz Ash Xino Turtle

Likely has actions available:

Wiz Ash Turtle

Had a Knife they wanted to use D1 and lacks self-preservation and was nervous of Archer:

Ash

 

…Huh. Guess it was me.

[Kasimir he/him]

38 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

I agree it’s interesting Xino had a tent with them. Don’t know if this would be a good WGG game but it is an interesting possibility, and the other items are in play.

So my issue with WGG when I really think it through (hi sorry y'all 4:30AM brain be like that  ) is just this:

• I think in a three or two Elim game, the tent is likely to make an appearance one way or another. Too many potential kills in the game not to offer some protection. So either way, it's not prima facie surprising.
   
• WGG has always been off-meta. Which doesn't say anything about whether it can/can't happen, but the thing to keep in mind is that back when it was prevalent, Lurchers weren't restricted in targeting so there was an actual reason for Elims not re-targeting the WGG target. As Archer said in AG8, the issue with a WGG now is that you have to explain why the Elims didn't swing back to attack a target they know is vulnerable to attack. To me, that does place a bit more of a barrier in place of running one. You'd functionally have to turn it into a potential WBG instead and play on the uncertainty there instead. 

And according to @Matrim's Dice, we'd have known if TUN or Archer dropped with any items. Which means:

Sigh everything in me is screaming not to do this which means this is probably a bad decision but hey Archer you can yell at me for hypocrisy when I'm dead.

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

• Wiz 
• Archer - Gale - Crewmember
• Kas - Silas Keen - Crewmember
• Turtle - Old Ben
• The Unknown Novel - Mat Rims - Crewmember
• Bookwyrm - Wylir
• Ash - Not Sure Who - Knife 
• JNV - Jal
• Shining
• Xino - Onyx - Tent

I think this is relevant insofar as we now know 1/2 the distro. One one-shot kill, one protect, and three regulars. I don't know what we can draw too strong an inference but that looks fairly roleslite to me. (Watch the other half have another tent, silver dust, and fenweed sap...) 

But it gets weirder. Suppose I keep my V!Ash, V!Xino credences. I certainly am not going to believe E!me because I'm not delusional

If we're postulating Elims, then, by my credences, they're in the second half - the other five players. Where I'm still also postulating fenweed sap, silver dust, and another tent, along with a two or three man Elim team. Not impossible but it feels sort of crowded.

Two man team world? Not sure.

[Turtle]

-what’s a wbg?

-KAS IS THAT A QUOKKA HOW DID I NOT NOTICE THIS

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

3 minutes ago, Turtle said:

-KAS IS THAT A QUOKKA HOW DID I NOT NOTICE THIS

Spoiler

 

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Turtle said:

-what’s a wbg?

-KAS IS THAT A QUOKKA HOW DID I NOT NOTICE THIS

What do you mean a quokka

@Matrim's Dice Can you confirm if you put any quokKas in this game?

1 minute ago, Turtle said:

-what’s a wbg?

I...

I have answered this so many times this hour I'm laugh-crying but okay no, it's a fair question.

WBG = Wounded Buffalo Gambit.

Polar opposite of WGG - Elims protect a Villager and hit the Villager and hope to sus the Villager for survival and let them get MLed. 

To be clear, I don't really think the pre-requisites for WBG obtain in this case. And I don't want to completely rule out WGG but I don't think it is that likely, so that's the view of the game I'm going to be running with going forward for now. But in a game, e.g. Tyrian ruleset where you can't protect the same target twice in a row, and you're setting up a WGG, how do you explain why the Elims hit X on N1 and then didn't come back for the guaranteed kill? The logical way to play it off is to claim that the Elims are clearly trying to get X lynched in a WBG variant. 

[Ashbringer he/him]

Oh I thought WGG and WBG were the same thing.

Also do we know if items would show up in the writeup?

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Ashbringer said:

Oh I thought WGG and WBG were the same thing.

Also do we know if items would show up in the writeup?

I asked Mat, he said they would if you flip with them. I can @ him here again to get that ruling in thread instead of my GM PM

@Matrim's Dice