Long Game 90: Undiluted Powers

[The Aspiring Archivist any]

Wow. People were really piling on him at the end there too. Was there a specific reason than people voted him?

[danex he/him]

Terrible Breath Dispensation did not have a good relationship with his parents.

* * *

Well, that certainly could have gone better. @Cinnamon, what was your reasoning for leaving your retaliation vote on Ash? You just said they "seemed a little suspicious."
Wanna shed some more light on that? 

[shadow1 she/her]

Shadowblob the mistwraith pops her head up from digesting the tasty new assemblage of limbs and flesh that just arrived in the thread (thank you Ashbringer for your sacrifice).

Mistwraiths aren't supposed to be smart. They're not supposed to be particularly sentient. It's not like Shadowblob is a kandra. She's just a mistwraith.

 

But all the same... well, why IS this delicious corpse here? Who exactly executed the poor (delicious) fella, and why? Shadowblob realizes she can read, but she's also busy eating body parts and other things and doesn't particularly have the stamina for it. But also, like.... anyone want to provide a recap? You don't have to, I could figure it out, but it might help a lot of us barely sentient mistwraiths understand what is going on.

 

Edited October 25, 2022 by shadow1

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

2 hours ago, Conquestor said:

Ummmmm, I'm lost for words. What happened last cycle??? I'll probably go look through it myself, but a quick update would be nice! I was super busy yesterday and then forgot about the game this morning, but I should be here and active for the rest of the time.

Also, only half of the players in the game voted... what's up with that?

Honestly I don't really know what happened last cycle. Haven't completely processed it.  Kas gave a nice summary (ish) thing towards EoD that you can check out.

Yeah, everyone should vote! Even if you don't have a good reason, vote! Helps the village a ton! Everyone has their own playstyle, now is your time to find it!

[Cinnamon]

I felt sick. I closed my eyes, bile rising in my throat. 

An innocent was dead. And it was my fault.

--

I was walking again, walking through the streets and alleyways of Tyrian Falls. This time I wasn't walking idly, I was walking with purpose. Scanning every person that I saw, noticing the way they moved, how they were acting, analysing each twitch and quirk, trying to determine if anyone I passed was Spiked. It might seem paranoid, but there was no being too careful with these Spiked. I noticed someone covertly tailing me, they seemed suspicious of me. I gathered from their conversations, that they were called Derrick. He seemed a strange person, everyone knew him but no one knew anything about him. He seemed to talk to himself at times, suspicious.

The next stop on my investigations was the tavern, everyone was talking about the strange events, who they suspected, how scared they were. That Derrick seemed suspicious of me, I made a decision, I would return the favour. I threw their name out into the fray, waiting to see what happened. At first nothing, I left before I could see the ramifications of my actions.

I weaved my way through the streets, until I ran into a dead end. "Lord Ruler's undergarments" I swore under my breath, turning back the way I came. I heard a commotion to my left. I jogged over to see what it was. A group of people surrounded one figure, hunched up in a fetal position. It was him, Derrick. the group was yelling about how he was Spiked. I filled with rage thinking of my brother Casper. "Get him!" I yelled stirring the group into further frenzy.

He died.

They were innocent. And a Mistborn even, he could have been a great ally and friend. No more. 

I ran the entire way back to my shack, shell shocked. I hadn't been the one to deliver the killing blow, but I still effectively had killed him. Perhaps I had been too eager to find these Spiked. I hadn't even considered that I might have a hand in causing an innocent's death.

--

Next time I would be more careful with voicing my suspicions. Next time I would think. If I kept going on like this, I was as bad as those monsters.

I would remember Derrick, he would be a lesson to me.

---

Very sorry about the poor quality RP- I am very tired.

 

6 hours ago, dannnnnnex said:

Well, that certainly could have gone better. @Cinnamon, what was your reasoning for leaving your retaliation vote on Ash? You just said they "seemed a little suspicious."
Wanna shed some more light on that? 

@dannnnnnex

Yes, indeed I would. A little context before we start. Rollover time in my timezone is 8 am.

I originally voted Ash because he voted me. I was quite confused as to why he would do that and thought it elim like behavior.

I have since learned that he was voting me to gauge my reaction, not out of spite or careful planning. 

My plan was to wait until there were more posts and I could get a more accurate read on everyone and choose the person I thought was most deserving of my vote.(at the time I still thought Ash's behavior strange) I was planning to wait until and hour before rollover to try and get the most accurate read I could (7am for me).

This part is embarassing, but I slept in and was running late for school because I stayed up late revising for a Chem test. So... when I finally got on the shard, it was too late and I had missed it. 

edit: (I think I did well on my test though)

Edited October 25, 2022 by Cinnamon
update

[Mat he/him]

15 minutes ago, Cinnamon said:

I originally voted Ash because he voted me. I was quite confused as to why he would do that and thought it elim like behavior.

Casting a vote isn’t elim behavior, it’s normal behavior  

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

5 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Ora'd had some sort of theory that Disaster and Dwarf were both Spiked, and I at least was minded to hear her out.

I no longer think that Shining and Xino are both elims. Xino fought hard enough for survival that I can't see him agreeing to a last-second bus so soon after Shining voted for Ash. The main thing I got out of the ending is that Shining didn't care whether Ash or Xino died.

[JNV]

...well I guess I didnt get the chance to vote huh sorry about that I couldnt get on yesterday night and rollover happens while Im at school 

Let me just take a quick look at the votes see if my complaitn from middlish last turn holds true

Kasimir votes Devotary as a pooke

Silhouette votes Novel as what Im kinda assuming is a joke 

Novel votes Novel as a joke

Ashbringer votes Cinnamon as a poke 

Matrim votes Silvereye as a poke

Wizard votes Bookwyrm as a joke

Bookwyrm votes Ashbringer out of what Im assuming is culture shock 

Matrim votes Wizard no reasaon given

Devotary votes Conquestor as a poke

Stick votes Alvron as a poke

Conquestor votes xinoehp for being more chatty and also kind of as a joke I guess I just missed the joke last read through

Cinnamon votes Ashbringer as retaliation

Silvereye votes Matrim as retaliation

Kasimir votes Ashbringeer no reason given at the time later justified as seeing what the newbies would do when their vote option became the leading train

Stick votes Novel no reason given

Wizard votes Turtle as a poke

Silhoutte votes Illwei for not making sense which kind of doesnt make sense and like unrelated but I just noticed I cant see that really dark red on my computer like I pulled it up on my phone and its fine but on my computer it just doesnt Im assuming its my moniter but wow

Danex votes Matrim as what I think is a joke 

Kasimir votes Bookwrym for staying on Ashbringer which is counter to standard enw player meta apparently

Silvereye unvotes Matrim 

Bookwyrm votes Kasimir as retaliation and for weird constant vote changing which I want to read the best of and assume culture shock but also like not really no

Silhouette unvotes Illwei cause they didnt really know why they did it in the first place which fair

Stick votes Silvereye no reason given

Ashbringer votes Bookwyrm for what Im assuming is the dislike of changing your vote around

Silhouette votes Ashbringer to break the very big tie that wasnt actually tied cause of some missed votes

Matrim votes xinoehp cause apparently xinoehp has like a format or something that Illwei pointed out

xinoehp votes Ashbringer to live

Silhouette unvotes Ashbringer and like given what they say its cause they started to suspect xinoehp but then like why not vote xinoehp to lock it in and why apologize ok maybe theyre that sorta person but like theres nothing wrong with changing your mind it doesnt need a whole big breakup speech

Wizard unvotes Turtle

Bookwyrm votes Ashbringer which I feel ilke has an implied reason that Im just not getting here

Ashbringer votes xniioehp to live

Kasimir votes xinoehp cause they didnt argue against Illweis argument abou the format thing which they do acknowledge is a weak argument and true but like why wouldnt evil xinoehp be even more motivated to argue against something like this you know like just cause youd expect people to do the logical things doesnt mean the illogical thing is the evil thing 

Kasimir unvotes xinoehp 

Silhouette tries to vote xinoehp but failsc ause you gotta have new votes in a new post I think for chronology 

Devotary unvotes Ashbringer

Ok like I get it was D1 but this is kinda... like the so called case against Ashbringer was a retalation vote that stuck around a vote that I just dont understand at all like they say its gut and I dont like that like I dont consider gut a strong enough reason to kill someone but that might just be my crippling selfdoubt talking and theres a vote for self pres and an unintentional reasonless vote like I dont know about you but as far as I remember cases on D1 are usually weak not nonexistent

Plus the 'case' against xinoehp that had like the semblence of reasoning behind it was an incorrect assumption about xinoehps playstyle a half joke half early D1 fun times vote and a self pres and the thing I really dont get that bugs me a tiny bit is Matrim was interacting with Kasimirs argument about how the xinoehp case was dependent on a blatantly wrong assumption while voting on xinoehp for that blatantly wrong assumption and then just didnt retract or mention this or justify their continued vote like whats going on there

So conclusions off of the vote Silhouette looks kind of ok off that cause theres no real reason whyd evil them would value xinoehp dead over Ashbringer if Ashbringers village honestly Bookwyrms arguments and stuff are kind of hitting wrong a bit but Im leaning towards benefit fo the doubt with new player and culture shock and such like Im not negating the raised eyebrow just setting it aside for now I talked about Matrim abovve like that sorta hits wrong too and like what I kinda think was weird about this D1 was how sticky the votes were like a lot of early votes just stuck around a lot of retaliation votes just lingered a lot of joke votes that just hung around its kinda weird

I think Im going to sleep early today if you want to catch me ping me in the next like fifteen minutes or Ill be asleep good night sleep tight bye bye

[Cinnamon]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Casting a vote isn’t elim behavior, it’s normal behavior  

Yeah, that seems overwhelming obvious in hindsight. 

Edited October 25, 2022 by Cinnamon

[Mat he/him]

58 minutes ago, JNV said:

the thing I really dont get that bugs me a tiny bit is Matrim was interacting with Kasimirs argument about how the xinoehp case was dependent on a blatantly wrong assumption while voting on xinoehp for that blatantly wrong assumption and then just didnt retract or mention this or justify their continued vote like whats going on there

I did, or at least I alluded to it:

Quote

I guess my question now is was the mischaracterization really that bad. Because I didn’t think it was— hence my vote— and we’ve discussed my memory with regards to things like this enough already, but if it really was that bad then I’m not sure if I want to be voting here at all

The bolded there I think is something you missed; the fact that yes, I was interacting with Kas about the assumption but I didn't know how wrong it was (and still really don't! Though I guess the consensus is that it is wrong?). That more than anything else is my fault for not fact checking Illwei. Kas had stated the assumption was wrong but that was the first time that notion had reached me and I didn't know what to believe since there were like five minutes left and I didn't see any reason for Ash to die :P.

And then also here

Quote

RNG is fine with me since there’s no reason for me to condemn Ash and definitely not enough time to figure out how valid Illwei’s e!xino take actually is

I'd already justified it based on agreeing with Illwei on something that I remembered to vaguely be true (and at the very least, xino'd already posted more than he had almost the entirety of last game) but I guess it turns out that not only was it not true at all, but Illwei didn't think it was true either and she was the one who said it. In retrospect voting someone for 'something someone else said that's probably true I think' is kinda bad but whatever, that reason is better than no reason for Ash :P.

This is how rumors get started, people  

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Verdure and Arene worked together with the practiced efficiency of two decades of training, but having to wait until Derrick's innocence was confirmed made it far too late to save him. Ora could only watch from a distance, unable to associate with the apothecary and her apprentice in public (she'd have to stop thinking of Arene that way, they'd finished their apprenticeship years ago and was prepared to take over the apothecary whenever Verdure decided to retire). In the end, she hadn't helped kill Derrick, but hadn't tried to save him either.  Not that she thought Dwarf deserved to die either. In the mines, at least everyone understood that failure to live together would lead to death for everyone, but these Spiked lacked that understanding. Perhaps they were merely willing to die so long as they destroyed Tyrian Falls first. Ora had no love for the town, but she would prepare an evacuation through the mines for its inhabitants. Many wouldn't run until the situation was well past hopeless, but every bit of preparation would be important.

[Kasimir he/him]

[OOC: I'll spell it out once. I'm still very insistent on RP style but given there's maybe three different variants of Illwei's argument, I don't think that RP style can do an already-confusing issue much justice. (Also, given how much everyone processes RP style  Which is why I used to try to signpost with OOC notes when not so tired.) If I OOC grey this, I don't know if people can read this or will just go kayana so here goes I guess.

I am going to name each iteration of the argument, because I believe they make rather different claims.

[I1]: If Xino shifts the structure of his usual playstyle, he is more likely to be an Elim.

Here's the original claim from Illwei:

Quote

I actually think I don't believe it at all

Xino typically has his standard posting style, which is almost always formatted like

[Votecount]
thoughts

---

RP

Maybe not always in that order, but usually those components.
Almost every time that he doesn't post like this- starts posting one liners and whatnot, he's an elim

Referenced here.

Here's the thing. Mat specifically references [I1] as a reason for his Xino vote. @Conquestor, why did your Xino vote stick? But [I1] was also referenced by @Devotary of Spontaneity as reason Conq's vote didn't seem as kayana anymore. So to me, whether the conditional in [I1] is true or not is significant, because it anchors at least Mat's vote, and makes Conq's seem significant.

Another reason it matters to me is I woke up to find Xino and Ash tied 3:3. They were both on my 'Ok With Voting Today' list, but as both trains had picked up a lot of momentum and energy since I went to sleep, I wanted to see if there was anything odd or suspicious about it, and if I should break the tie or let RNGesus take the wheel due to indifference.

Mat, Ash, et al had handled some of the obvious "Why did you vote X/Y" questions. I was evaluating each move onto the Xino train, so this had to be something I looked at.

A final reason this matters to me is I'd rather not pre-flip Xino tonight. And if more time and space means resolving Xino without lynching Xino tomorrow, I'm fine with it. If Xino gets vigkilled or scanned, I'm also fine with it. And if the best decision tomorrow is to flip Xino, cool, I'm down for it, if that's where the lynch discussion takes us.

I was also extremely motivated to check this out because, quite simply put, I was dubious. Illwei had run on a mischaracterisation of my recent playstyle in a recent game. As such, I wasn't sure if the Xino argument bore water either.

To be clear, this conditional is actually a bit hard to disprove because 'more likely' is more resistant to being disproved, due to how slippery the likelihood judgement is. I'll spell this out later in the section entitled 'Likelihood Judgements.'

But my judgement call is that I still don't see much substantive support for this in Xino's historical playdata.

With regard to the evidence, check my Annex below. Since I'm tired of relitigating this repeatedly to everyone I can PM, I'm going to put this in a single place. You all can read it, and make your own judgements. Or don't, if you don't want to. I will clearly demarcate the actual data and my own thoughts on this. My view is that it is a blatant mischaracterisation, and the argument only survives by going on to [I2] and [I3]. Given that Illwei herself is uncertain about how much she wants to commit to it literally, I don't know how dominant that argument should be regarded to be.

Quote

Honestly I'm not sure how I feel on the xino train. Despite calling him town and then calling him an elim in 2/3 of my posts I don't have a strong read on that, and don't find a strong reason to develop one at this point, with how day has gone. 

Here's the next iteration, which is a response from Illwei:

[I2]: At least earlier on in the game, when Xino is inactive, he is more likely to be an Elim.

So we shift from a claim that Xino breaks his usual playstyle structure, to the claim that early game inactivity (I believe Illwei doesn't mean earlier in Xino's playhistory, as we should be concerned about earlier games being poorly representative of Xino's current playstyle) is more likely indicative of E!Xino. 

But in the same response, we have a third iteration of the argument:

[I3]: The more one-liners and responses and reactions instead of being proactive the more likely the person is to be an Elim just generally and xino is an example of that.

I am going to cite the relevant post here, and the link can be found here.

Quote

lol you kept reading to see that I don't like actually believe in what i said there either and I'm not saying it's exactly that every game because there are also a number of games he slanks. If you look though the times (at least earlier on) where he is inactive in the game he's more likely to be an Elim. The more one-liners and responses and reactions instead of being proactive the more likely the person is to be an Elim just generally and xino is an example of that.

I am going to emphasise, just once, that [I1], [I2], and [I3] give us three different measures of how likely Xino is to be Evil. [I1] argues in terms of structural playstyle deviation. [I2] argues in terms of inactivity. [I3] argues in terms of reactivity, or how passive a player is. (To be clear, a player can be passive instead of being inactive. Mat posted quite a bit in QF62 but he was also very passive.)

Likelihood Judgements:

As I promised, a brief section of likelihood judgements.

I don't normally litigate this because it doesn't functionally matter. We have some intuitive judgement of likelihood, where we presumably imagine 'more likely' to be substantive enough to justify a vote, on the grounds we want to find Elims and this is a good yardstick. We're not interested in likelihood judgements if 'more likely' is so small - here's an extreme case - p=0.0000001, in which case, it's just not worth trifling with.

Clearly, we expect the likelihood captured to be better than random, to be somewhat evidentially robust. Or, to put it another way, 'to be worth the trouble.'

I think it's very important to keep holding on to this notion of likelihood. This is because if Xino's playhistory winds up showing this isn't true, then we shouldn't retreat to a general and weaker notion of likelihood in order to preserve [I1], [I2], or [I3]. The argument is only useful insofar as the likelihood judgement that is captured is robust enough to be worth bothering with. So instead, if not borne out, we should give up the argument and look to other means of ascertaining Xino's alignment or our willingness to vote on Xino (e.g. pragmatic or informational arguments.)

Illwei alludes to this when she says:

Quote

This is why we don't create patterns from 1 data point :P.

We don't, sure.

But if repeated datapoints don't justify your pattern, you have two responses. You can weaken the pattern, but which also weakens the argument it is based on, since the pattern justifies the argument. Weaker pattern, weaker evidential basis, weaker argument. Or you can jettison the pattern and move on.

Annex:

Spoiler

These are the games I went through, in the time I had. You are welcome to cite more games if you feel I am biased or cherrypicking. I ran off memory in selecting games due to time pressure.

• MR43
• MR53
• BT1
• BT2
• MR57
• MR60
• LG89

Now, you could argue, and I am going to preface this, that BT1 and BT2 shouldn't be in there at all because time pressures are distortive of Xino's playstyle by removing an incentive to RP. But given Xino had not been RP-heavy in recent games such as MR57, I think they should remain. Morever, MR53 and BT2 capture E!Xino games, which are just as important to all three variants, [I1], [I2], and [I3]. As such, I don't take too much issue with the dataset as is. I think having waded through seven Xino games as it is is in the...hour and a half? Maybe two hours? to rollover is already pretty decent, considering no one else actually did that.

MR43:

I GMed V!Xino this game. This was a somewhat RP heavy game, where I encouraged the players to RP and created a mechanic to do so. Unclear if this affected how much players actually RPed. MR43 may be argued to be a bit farther back, but it is one of the games that was crucial in establishing my personal impression of Xino's playstyle and so was my first port of call.

My general take on this game is that this was a fairly RP heavy game for Xino, though post volume was low. But this was true of the entire game. 

Deviation (I1): LOW - RP-heavy, with one or two isolated posts.
Inactivity (I2): MODERATE - Given the context of the game, he did show up as low activity, and a bit worse than the other players.
Reactivity (I3): MODERATE - Xino volunteered some rules analysis, RP interacted a little, and saved Striker. 

Spoiler

This is Xino's first post. Rules analysis with RP. That's all for the first cycle, but this game was a non-voting first cycle.

This is Xino's second post, which came in the second cycle. This is a RP response to other players RPing.

This is Xino's third post. More RP, and a location indicator. (Not relevant, not gonna explain.)

This is Xino's fourth post. A single line reason and vote.

This is Xino's fifth post, in the following cycle. RP, and a single line comment asking why he's getting voted on.

This is Xino's final post, two cycles later. A few short lines and a countervote on E!Drake, who was making Xino the last CW.

MR53:

This was a conversion Elimination game, and one in which RL or other factors made Xino go inactive, though he was reasonably present in the Elim doc. He was converted C1, and Mat was Evil as well in this game. Worth noting that all of Xino's C1 posts come from V!Xino.

Deviation (I1): HIGH - Many isolated posts (due to inactivity), with no RP, low rules analysis. This is true both as V!Xino and E!Xino.
Inactivity (I2): HIGH - Encountered an inactivity warning, with the counterpoint being that unless you claim it was deliberate, RL seems to have pushed him into inactivity.
Reactivity (I3): HIGH - V!Xino offered some posts and thoughts, E!Xino was highly reactive.

Spoiler

This is Xino's first post. No RP, and a couple of lines/thoughts about the game, and a vote on Araris due to pre-game bets on E!Araris. (Note: Araris was Village.)

Xino's second post. Votecount, vote, thought, response to me.

Single post from Xino about RL. Note that Xino is Evil by this post, and Xino had not posted for the rest of the previous cycle.

Xino shows up with two quick lines after a two cycles of inactivity and being put on the inactivity warning list. This is C4, as the Village is at lylo.

Xino's next post comes at C5, where he claims a Soothe, but crucially, didn't vote at lylo, which raised my suspicions of him.

Claimed no real time for anything else, and expresses surprise we're still at lylo.

Self-votes.

Final post in the game: swaps from self-voting to Az to try to survive. This gets him killed.

BT1:

This was a V!Xino game. Because it was tightly compressed, RP was missing from basically everyone. Xino spent all of this game dedicated to a playstyle that saw him auctioning off his votes. You could argue that the compression of the game meant this was a game where you saw light, bantery, short posts from Xino. But I think the takeaway as well is that Xino is open to playing with playstyle. The bucket use in this game was something new he developed this year, I think in MR57.

Deviation (I1): HIGH - Structure of the game lent itself to rapid posts.
Inactivity (I2): LOW - Kept stirring the pot every cycle with bids.
Reactivity (I3): LOW - Offered thoughts, actively solicited bids, proactively went onto Len.

Spoiler

This is Xino's first post, announcing his playstyle. Short.

Searching for another bidder, cheating on Araris.

Reminding Araris to place a vote order with him.

Takes a bid from Experience, searching for new bidders.

Tells Araris that Experience outbid him.

Claims bidding is now closed.

Next cycle, opens bidding again.

Accepts Len's bid, looks for more. I shouldn't be this entertained by it but I am, now that I'm not dying E!Kas in this game.

Xino's appetite for bids does not stop, even as he accepts Mat's bid.

Xino spontaneously offers a Village and Elim bucket reads.

Next cycle, Xino opens bidding again.

States he will vote Len if there is no bid.

Accepts Ash's bid.

Votes Striker, opens for more bids, realises time is out.

Next cycle. Votes Len, opens bidding.

Rejects Len's bid as reason not good.

Asks what is CC. Sets up the triple ninja.

Seeks to buy Mat's vote fast, realises this ain't gonna work. Xino was a CW.

BT2:

This is worth looking at as this is an E!Xino game, albeit a faction game (two Village factions, one Evil. Xino is Evil.)

Deviation (I1): HIGH - Hard to make a judgement call given content, but no appearance of RP, and substantive single analysis post, and more minimal response post.
Inactivity (I2): HIGH - Markedly less thread activity than cohort.
Reactivity (I3): MODERATE - Offers substantive content of own accord in C1, highly reactive in C2.

Spoiler

Longpost with buckets, interaction with other players, and analysis.

Two line reply/response to my making a Xino push.

MR57:

I GMed this as well. Xino was a Villager and (relatively speaking) a role that was of moderate importance until E!Araris died C1.

Deviation (I1): HIGH - Some substantive posts C1 that peter out into low activity commentary interspersed with rebuckets.
Inactivity (I2): MODERATE - Good C1, ok other Cs.
Reactivity (I3): MODERATE - Proactive C1, becomes a bit more reactive as game carries on.

Spoiler

Xino opens with short rule thoughts. The Fang is a new mechanic and ends up sucking up a bit of opening thoughts.

Moderate length response to a question from Archer about Fang thoughts.

Xino is bored and so offers a bucket reads list.

More thoughts on Bort and TJ in response to an Archer question.

Responds to questions, offers thoughts.

Adds Araris to Bad Bucket, more response to Stick.

Single liner swap from Thaid to Stick.

Next cycle, Xino updates his buckets.

Responds and rebuckets.

Goes for TJ over Thaid.

Replies that he suses TJ more than Striker in response to Stick's question.

Next cycle, rebuckets again, votes, and claims Elder role.

Short post, no change in opinions. Asks about no Thug presence.

Replies JNV that he knows how the rules work.

Votes TJ again.

Single line response to Mat.

Self-votes.

Unvotes at Mat's request.

MR60:

Didn't play, took a look anyway. V!Xino game, extremely recent. If anything, I'd argue this shows Xino's playstyle is at the mercy of RL and the platform he has access to. No real reason for V!Xino to lie about this, and mobile seems to have a direct impact on activity and post length, i.e. in part, playstyle.

Deviation (I1): HIGH - All short posts, little substantiation.
Inactivity (I2): HIGH - Minimal activity.
Reactivity (I3): HIGH - Votes Devo, otherwise not exactly proactive.

Spoiler

Short post dropping in, explains sword vote, drops vote on Devo.

Votes Devo again, no computer access so can't do much.

Replies to Mat saying no reason for Devo vote.

Shows I think a cycle or two later to say mobile is a pain and votes Stick.

One liner the next cycle over Conq's death.

Very short analysis, votes Stick.

LG89:

Another recent game, with E!Xino being a Coinshot who died C1.

Deviation (I1): HIGH - All short posts, little substantiation.
Inactivity (I2): HIGH - Minimal activity.
Reactivity (I3): MODERATE - Responds briefly to Araris, makes own post, inactive for second half of cycle.

Spoiler

Short post, brief rule thoughts, vote, laments mobile.

Corrects Araris.

Votes Mat, edits to me, says he doesn't want to die. Dies.

As an extra/freebie, worth noting Xino kept a low profile in LG87 @_Stick_, @JNV, correct me if I'm wrong, as his non-Elim factionmates wanted him to lie low as their secret weapon.

Thoughts/Comments:

• RP hasn't been a facet of Xino's playstyle for a very long time, and DEVIATION ([I1])from the template is a very imprecise and not very useful way of gauging Xino's playstyle.
• Xino is moderately flexible in terms of playstyle changes as a player, with external reasons, e.g. mobile and RL partly and markedly affecting how he engages with the game (cf. LG89, MR60.)
• I believe LG89 and MR60 should be given a bit more evidential weight, because they're recent. Judging by earlier playstyles always runs the risk of playstyle drift throwing you off.
• INACTIVITY and REACTIVITY ([I2] and [I3]) are moderate measures for Xino. He's had a distribution but generally skews MODERATE to HIGH reactivity and has difficulty maintaining activity levels. I don't judge there is a clear pattern across being Elim, in part because I do not question when players have RL influences. It is possible to argue that some players are less motivated to fight RL if they are Evil. I don't want to make that argument here.
  
  To be clear:
   
  MR43:
  Deviation (I1): LOW - RP-heavy, with one or two isolated posts.
  Inactivity (I2): MODERATE - Given the context of the game, he did show up as low activity, and a bit worse than the other players.
  Reactivity (I3): MODERATE - Xino volunteered some rules analysis, RP interacted a little, and saved Striker. 
  
  MR53:
  Deviation (I1): HIGH - Many isolated posts (due to inactivity), with no RP, low rules analysis. This is true both as V!Xino and E!Xino.
  Inactivity (I2): HIGH - Encountered an inactivity warning, with the counterpoint being that unless you claim it was deliberate, RL seems to have pushed him into inactivity.
  Reactivity (I3): HIGH - V!Xino offered some posts and thoughts, E!Xino was highly reactive.
  
  BT1:
  Deviation (I1): HIGH - Structure of the game lent itself to rapid posts.
  Inactivity (I2): LOW - Kept stirring the pot every cycle with bids.
  Reactivity (I3): LOW - Offered thoughts, actively solicited bids, proactively went onto Len.
  
  BT2:
  Deviation (I1): HIGH - Hard to make a judgement call given content, but no appearance of RP, and substantive single analysis post, and more minimal response post.
  Inactivity (I2): HIGH - Markedly less thread activity than cohort.
  Reactivity (I3): MODERATE - Offers substantive content of own accord in C1, highly reactive in C2.
  
  MR57:
  Deviation (I1): HIGH - Some substantive posts C1 that peter out into low activity commentary interspersed with rebuckets.
  Inactivity (I2): MODERATE - Good C1, ok other Cs.
  Reactivity (I3): MODERATE - Proactive C1, becomes a bit more reactive as game carries on.
  
  MR60:
  Deviation (I1): HIGH - All short posts, little substantiation.
  Inactivity (I2): HIGH - Minimal activity.
  Reactivity (I3): HIGH - Votes Devo, otherwise not exactly proactive.
  
  LG89:
  Deviation (I1): HIGH - All short posts, little substantiation.
  Inactivity (I2): HIGH - Minimal activity.
  Reactivity (I3): MODERATE - Responds briefly to Araris, makes own post, inactive for second half of cycle.
   
• In Summation:

Spoiler

Sorry, had to display it some other way as 17S keeps breaking on me. Skews high on inactivity when Evil, low reactivity occurs only when Village but otherwise, even Village-Evil split. If you like, you can expand the datapoints. Deviation has an even split and is concentrated in HIGH. Blue is Village, orange Elim. I considered converted Xino to be Evil even though strictly speaking he was Village in C1 for the purposes of a simple visualisation. Myself, I did feel Xino was reactive this game, but I don't feel there's an overwhelming trend from his playdata that supports or detracts from this. I will be looking elsewhere and seeking to keep my suspicions broad for the time being.

FWIW, I think like Mat, I'd like some clarity about Illwei going all over the place, but I do not quite see her post about being Village read coming from E!Illwei. I feel E!Illwei tends to be more careful about how she phrases these things. Further thoughts in a different post.

Free to draw your own conclusions. This is the end of the Xino rabbithole for me as I have better things to do with my life.]

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

8 hours ago, JNV said:

Silhouette unvotes Ashbringer and like given what they say its cause they started to suspect xinoehp but then like why not vote xinoehp to lock it in and why apologize ok maybe theyre that sorta person but like theres nothing wrong with changing your mind it doesnt need a whole big breakup speech

Hey! I thought it was funny! Who can say it doesn't need a big breakup speech? okay literally every person who's commented on it but whatever

Word of wisdom if I say something that seems weird like that just take it as a joke cause that's how it's meant :P.

[Kasimir he/him]

So, one way or another, I figured there were some questions I'd wanted to ask.

Atelos [ @JNV] was keeping to themselves, quite a bit. We'd talked a little, but for all Atelos'd said about potentially coming back to vote, maybe someone like Edvan Tyrian, they hadn't done so either. Couldn't remember if a fellow like Atelos had a tendency to slip up this much when they'd turned bad, figured it was maybe worth a look. This mattered to me, 'cause Adam [ @Matrim's Dice] was one of them as calling for Dwarf's [ @xinoehp512] head, and little of it made sense to me.

[OOC: JNV has gone on the record as wanting to come back and vote, particularly to vote TUN. They promised to come back and vote later, but did not. One thing I seem to have an impression of is that E!JNV always votes, I don't recall if V!JNV is as good about engagement. This is not something I am sure of, so I am willing to check it later on. Still, this is interesting to me because Mat has TUN as a null-, but votes Xino and sort of ignores TUN as a potential train.

 

This is kinda ? because JNV had already indicated willingness to return and suspicion of TUN, and in my view, if Mat was offering a rundown of the existing trains, it's odd to ignore TUN even if the main vote on TUN was TUN, especially since he's a null- read and you have a reason for why you think he might be Evil.

 

So my questions are: @JNV, why didn't you vote? And who would you have voted for? @Matrim's Dice, given your read of TUN, why was TUN not an early option for you?]

See, thing was, I'd figured that Edvan Tyrian [ @The Unknown Novel] was a bit out of it. Maybe a bit mist-touched. Certainly were rumours to that effect. Point was, I figured a Spiked would be more careful-like, what with us all flippin' every stone we could find for 'em. Edvan seemed a bit too relaxed. I figured it wasn't the sorta thing I'd expect from a Spiked Edvan, though mists only knew what that'd be like. Founder's heir turned bad, and all.

[OOC: I think TUN is engaging a bit too freely for E!TUN but I am not so certain that I would defend it under challenge at this point. Subject to potential revision.]

'Course, my opinion of the lad wasn't shared, and maybe it was better that way. Sometimes I figured maybe I was just several flavours of drunk. Didn't know if I could make sense of my own thoughts, sometimes.

Things got messier, though. Always did, in Tyrian Falls. Sometimes I thought the village was cursed. Ain't that a pleasant thought!

'Cause, suppose there was some ill intent in Adam. S'pose Adam'd intended to go for Dwarf. Thing was, you'd've to ask, what'd he gain from it? He stayed on Dwarf, despite Dwarf being endangered. Didn't seem like the sorta play them as in cahoots might make. But Adam tryin' to save Derrick made no sense neither. Derrick was one of us, through and through. Maybe you could figure Adam wanted to lay a false trail, keep fingers pointin' at Derrick after we'd found him. If we found him. But I didn't know if that was his game.

No, it just seemed strange to me Adam'd druther go for someone he figured he had no real opinion on, had an uneasy relationship with the arguments about Dwarf, and had overlooked Edvan Tyrian, despite Edvan drawin' some attention of his own. Made me wonder if that was insincere, or Adam pushin' someone as he'd no real view on. Maybe they wanted some distance between them, made 'em seem more unlikely conspirators.

[OOC: Generally I just find it a bit ? that in the linked post, Mat is null on Ash and would rather go for Ash than pushing TUN despite having a reasoned null- on TUN, and JNV indicating willingness to return and vote TUN. He's also slightly Elim on Xino, which is a fair bit stronger than his other reads, and on the basis of Illwei's argument, which is where the Xino thing kind of ends up mattering. It does make me wonder if Mat's suspicion of TUN is more distancing, which would incline me to Mat-TUN E/E.]

Problem for me was, I figured Edvan's heart was maybe in the right place. Wasn't sure if that was true if Edvan was Spiked.

Reckoned I'd need to look more into Edvan Tyrian, if I lived to see the dawning of the day.

'Course, I had other sorts of questions. I'd seen Thoughtful Book Dude [ @The Aspiring Archivist] a couple of times, lingering around the edges of the discussion. He'd said little enough, but it was clear he was watching what was goin' on. I wondered about what he was thinking. Easy enough for 'em Spiked to stay at the edges, where no one was lookin', no one was pokin', no one was askin' questions. Coulda said the same about Felix [ @Just a Silvereye]. Peeled back off Adam, and went to the back. ;eyes;'d [ @_Stick_] left suspicion on Felix, and I wondered if that was worth followin' up with both of them on.

[OOC: Stick, as stated. You knew you were heading off for the Night, given your timezone. Why final vote Silvereye? For Archivist and Silvereye, I'm wondering about your thoughts right now.]

Then there were others that'd stood out. Riven [ @Alvron] was lingerin', but I knew better if anyone felt they could scare an answer from him. Riven was made of sterner stuff, and wont to watch. Best to keep a careful eye out on him. Then there was Ora [ @Devotary of Spontaneity] - I figured her loyalties maybe lay with Tyrian Falls, but the more I thought of it, the more I still had questions. She was one of the last to accuse Derrick. She'd retracted it quickly enough, but I still wondered why.

[OOC: I can't see E!Devo unvoting Ash, especially since Ash flipped Village. Easier to just leave your vote where it is. IDK. I just can't make sense of the late vote movements with E!Devo. Unvoting Ash would only endanger Xino more, so... Devo/Xino not E/E? Lmao. So helpful. But seriously, Devo, why suddenly vote Ash and unvote?]

I wondered, too, why Destroyer [ @Illwei] was wont to preach the merits of callin' out suspicions, and then back none of hers at all. Really, I just wondered where she stood, in the end, on the matter of Dwarf, at the very least, if not the Spiked that seemed to be infestin' us like a criminal gang in the underbelly of Luthadel.

[OOC: Basically just - why argue about the importance of voting then not vote? Views on Xino or the Spiked?]

Wasn't sure how I felt about Tortoise [ @Turtle] showin' up after all the shoutin' and fuss had been done. Wasn't anything solid I could put my finger on, but I'd trudge home in the mists feelin' better tonight if I'd some aquavit in my belly and more thoughts from Tortoise. Really, could say the same as for Simeon Venture [ @Conquestor], seein' as his voice'd stayed so bloody long on Derrick! 

I wasn't certain how I felt about Disaster [ @Shining Silhouette] now, neither. Part of me didn't feel great about him. Couldn't rightly point to it, other than the fact he didn't feel like his heart was into finding them Spiked. But part of me didn't quite want to go for him, if he was for Tyrian. Lord Ruler knew there wasn't enough going for us right now.

Evenlyn Royale [ @Cinnamon] stood out to me, too. Figured that digging her heels in about Derrick was a pretty bad place for her to be, given her suspicions'd been as thin as the mists. Kinda figured that any fellow Spiked should've told her otherwise. And I wasn't sure there was much to be gained by it, since she'd been pretty early on Derrick too. No real reason to go that route. No real person she was protectin', not that I could make out. But I dunno. I didn't like the feel of it, maybe. Sure, Derrick was suspicious of her, but half this bloody village was turnin' on each other. If that were suspicious, we'd all be danglin' from the nearest post. But then again, I didn't know: what were the odds one of 'em Spiked would hide behind something so flimsy? My current estimation was that it was unlikely. But maybe I was overthinkin' things. Sometimes you just had to flip 'em rocks and see what came out of 'em.

I'd similar questions about Rylim Libran [ @The Bookwyrm] too. I hadn't liked the seeming contrast between his professed greenness and the way he handled suspicion. No, I was thinking, if you ain't bein' coached, my lad, I'll eat my best hat. Wuhrn had given that to me and I liked that hat, damnit. Thing was, Rylim'd come down with a big case of the nerves near the end, when he figured one too many people were being suspicious of him.

See, thing with greenhorns is, they're a bit more sensitive to the threat of death than you'd expect, 'specially if they've turned bad. So maybe there was something in it.

But this was known, and I didn't know if Rylim's team, even when coaching him to play the greenhorn card, would let him pull off such an obvious tell. 'Course, they couldn't control how he phrased these things. Maybe it was worth relooking Rylim. But I kinda couldn't really see this sorta play comin' if Rylim were bein' coached, and that was the whole reason I was squintin' at him to begin with!

[OOC: As I mentioned, you can only play the new player card once. I'm sensitive to this because that's what I played blatantly in my first Evil game, LG5. Alv would remember, as he babysat me through most of it  Bookwyrm is playing this blatantly, Cinnamon isn't and I wouldn't buy it from Cin anyway - Cin's opening is a bit too unhesitant to seem new, which is why I'm squinting at the fact that Cin's reasons are classic new player. Might be reason to subject Cin to more scrutiny tomorrow. Cf. my thoughts on flipping rocks and just trying, because I feel I'm hitting too many layers of IKYK for Cin and Bookwyrm. In Bookwyrm's case, it has to do with the fact that new players who are genuinely new tend to display new player responses, and hints of experienced player responses suggest potential coaching. My issue is that in the later thread I linked...that sort of sensitivity is considered an obvious tell for new players. Also, Bookwyrm is new to SE, which means that his team would've pointed out he would have been in no danger of death C1, due to etiquette. It's possible Bookwyrm made a mistake but I'm currently leaning no that if he were being coached, this would have happened in the first place.]

I'd ask my questions, I figured. Someone had to.

I didn't want it, though. I wanted the quiet of my aquavit, the comforting darkness as Dyring shuffled about administering to his flock. I wanted to stagger home, too worn to feel the mists, too worn to think of anything but the mists calling me home, drowning out that hole that'd been put into me by the years and the years and the way I felt only empty, only comfortably numb.

I wanted this place, my place. Hell's waiting room.

I wanted to drown.

Edited October 25, 2022 by Kasimir

[Turtle]

3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Wasn't sure how I felt about Tortoise [ @Turtle] showin' up after all the shoutin' and fuss had been done. Wasn't anything solid I could put my finger on, but I'd trudge home in the mists feelin' better tonight if I'd some aquavit in my belly and more thoughts from Tortoise.

lmao I literally just forgot this game was happening and then realized it was happening 12 minutes after it ended. I really wish I’d been there earlier cos figuring stuff out after the fact when I wasn’t an active participant can be really hard for me. 

Oh um also random little thing in defense of poke votes (I came across jnv’s take on them): 

-rng poke votes are bad. Period. I know some sites have a genuine rng function that lets you check to make sure someone really rng’d it, and that’s bad. Gives, like, no meaningful interaction whatsoever and just votes a person. 
-however, poke votes themselves are really useful imo. They let you see who has interacted with who, and give something to advance the game. Some sites have a meme posting early game, which we don’t really have, and poke votes kind of do the same thing where you try to get something meaningful out of random discussion. I like poke votes better than meme posting, cos meme posting has nothing to do with the game and it’s just kind of trying to catch someone based on their meta. In this essay, I will

(I wrote this before kas Ninja’d me)

also I think I’ll have a reads list up by 12:15 my time so that’s fun

[Stick. she/her]

Sucks that Ash was Mistborn RIP Ash

@Kasimir to answer your question from last turn (and this turn) - I left my vote on Silvereye because I knew I wouldn't be on till after rollover and my vote seemed most productive on Silvereye cuz that created an 11-way tie close to rollover and I thought that'd make for some interesting EoD vote switches. And it did.  My vote on TUN had nothing to do with whether I suspected TUN and I didn't want to have that be the leading train in any case.

I don't think xino is elim and their posts near EoD read village enough to me. I agree with people saying Shining seemed indifferent to which one of Ash/xino died so side-eyeing Shining. Also suspecting Bookwyrm a little bit despite me reading them village last turn - I'll go ahead and say that Kas/Bookwyrm are not e/e. I don't know how I feel about Kas just yet but the vibes in my gut are slightly off. Don't want him out just yet, but I'll be keeping a close eye (geddit?? eyes haha) on him.  He's been putting a lot of effort into his analysis which is good (still marvelling at that xino break-down) but I wonder if it has a deeper implication.

[Kasimir he/him]

26 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

He's been putting a lot of effort into his analysis which is good (still marvelling at that xino break-down) but I wonder if it has a deeper implication.

Thing was, that seemed kinda weird to me. And I was the one who was starting to slur my words just a bit.

Dyring was keeping the drinks comin' tonight. Figgered I owed him one. But figgered I wasn't the only one who needed a drink at what'd happened, at the news one of us was dead, and a Mistborn at that.

'Cause if you think 'bout it, if ya think I'm one of 'em Spiked, then what do I really gain by doin' a massive breakdown of Dwarf [OOC: Xino] lad? 'Course ya could figger mebbe I'm there as tryin' to defend Dwarf, but then it'd make sense if I went an' said, yeah, in summ'ation, Derrick's [OOC: Ash] one of 'em Spiked, get 'im. Problem is, I never did that. I went an' said, look ye, I can't right make sense o' this one, but mebbe there's something off about how Dwarf ain't pickin' the most like defense, aye, and it ain't sittin' right with me. Mebbe them Spiked are a bit more prone to bein' taken aback, or mebbe he worked out t'was folly to defend himself too early, an' that sorta cold evaluation's more common from a criminal mindset, if ye get what I ken.

Point was, I picked Dwarf. Either way ye slice it, it ain't right. Mebbe you say I'm Evil, and Dwarf's Evil. But then I'd've no reason to half-heartedly defend 'im on a single point and turn and vote on 'im anyway. Ye know Derrick's Village now, which means I'd might as well've picked Derrick. Mebbe you say I'm Evil, and Dwarf's Village. But then you ain't got no theory on why I'd go to that lengths to poke about Dwarf. If I was one of 'em Spiked and Dwarf's Village, I know Dwarf's Village anyway. Wouldn't take that much to turn that diggin' and pokin' into a thunderin' denunciation of them as suspectin' Dwarf on the basis of them fancy arguments, an' I'd be vindicated iffen Dwarf flipped, ye ken? 

'Course, you could make another reply. Figger you could say, yeah, he's doin' that to distract ye. Pretendin' he be all interested in findin' the Spiked, when he really ain't. But then, since when cain't we do all the things? Since when we be so scairt of doin' them all? 'Cause from th' looks of it, if there's one o' the two of us that's going a-diggin' through posts and votes, it sure ain't ye, ;eyes;. [OOC: Stick] Iffen I was only talkin' about Dwarf, then aye. But I ain't. I'm just as interested in lookin' elsewhere, and said as much. But Adam [OOC: Mat], he be hanging' onto that argument, aye. And I don't wanna hafta deal with that drek again. So I figger, let's see it through, settle it once and for all, and move on. And them as continuing t' litigate this Dwarf affair, wi' hardly an interest in anythin' else...aye, maybe ye looks at 'em.

Point is, don't think you ain't got no theory of why I'd be behavin' the way I do if I were Evil. Ye can prognosticatin' all sorts of fancy situs, no doubt, but point is, ain't anythin' in me for that, 'cept a whole lot of pain, and the bottom of a bottle.

Edited October 25, 2022 by Kasimir
Added and coloured OOC tags for clarity.

[danex he/him]

53 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

He's been putting a lot of effort into his analysis which is good (still marvelling at that xino break-down) but I wonder if it has a deeper implication.

Kas himself has previously been an advocate against effort-clearing, i wouldn't be surprised if e!Kas is intentionally being high-effort this game just to teach us all that lesson

like he literally made graphs

that's an amount of effort that is just

ridiculous.

...graphs

Edited October 25, 2022 by dannnnnnex

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

59 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I agree with people saying Shining seemed indifferent to which one of Ash/xino died so side-eyeing Shining.

Well, it's true :P.

I didn't really care and if it showed well then that's whatever, right?

Don't have much time today, I'll probably think things through tomorrow.

Edit:

6 minutes ago, dannnnnnex said:

Kas himself has previously been an advocate against effort-clearing, i wouldn't be surprised if e!Kas is intentionally being high-effort this game just to teach us all that lesson

like he literally made graphs

that's an amount of effort that is just

ridiculous.

...graphs

Just saw this XD

I actually agree with this on some level.

Edited October 25, 2022 by Shining Silhouette

[Mat he/him]

11 minutes ago, dannnnnnex said:

Kas himself has previously been an advocate against effort-clearing, i wouldn't be surprised if e!Kas is intentionally being high-effort this game just to teach us all that lesson

like he literally made graphs

that's an amount of effort that is just

ridiculous.

...graphs

Kas is always that high effort :P.

[danex he/him]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

Kas is always that high effort :P.

has he made graphs before though

also, to clarify, i'm not saying that this is evidence for e!Kas, just pointing out that when it comes to Kas, effort clearing should definitely be avoided

[Stick. she/her]

2 minutes ago, dannnnnnex said:

just pointing out that when it comes to Kas, effort clearing should definitely be avoided

^ This is what I was getting at, more-or-less.

[Turtle]

 

Spoiler

 

Another world, another pseudonym. 

Tortoise was slightly unsure of what they were doing. They’d heard of Scadrial before, they’d even visited it in the cognitive realm. It was a dreary, desolate world that was the textbook example of what Shards fighting did to a planet. They missed watching Arda from afar. There was hardly any green at all on Scadrial. 

The group they were with was the largest Tortoise had ever been in while in the Cosmere. Many, many moving parts that they had trouble getting a handle on, especially as they’d entered the group during sundown. Especially without knowing the numbers of the infiltrators, with hardly any information to go off of and a myriad of new people. Tortoise remembered their first time worldhopping, on First of the Sun, when being new made infiltrating the group far easier. And yet yeeting a new member was not something they wanted to do.

 

^^RP

https://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/112409-lg-90-day-1-old-friends-and-new-threats/?do=findComment&comment=1396658

wow illwei ur so cool

https://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/112409-lg-90-day-1-old-friends-and-new-threats/?do=findComment&comment=1396700

This is gambler’s fallacy, it means nothing because there is not correlation between the independent runs. You are just as likely to be elim this game as anyone else. 

———

uhm ik I said I’d have a reads list in less than an hour from now but honestly I’m having a lot of trouble getting a worldview rn but here’s what I have so far

Illwei: gut read v for tone, don’t rlly get the whole xino thing 

JNV: better vibes than last game, null+

Shadow1: first post gives bad vibes but I’ve never played w them before so idk

Xino: alternate yeet Canadian, unsure

Cinnamon: lots of RP, vote on ash the whole cycle, null-

Dannex’s opening post seems good, so does the talk abt the ash train

The votes on ash all seem iffy to me but given the size of the game the elims could just be hiding off the wagons altogether 

and eod1 is so weird cos I have no frame of reference for what time all of that was happening except 18 hrs ago so it’s hard to understand 

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

I'm here, I've been busy, still catching up. I'll be more active though...

...

Probably.

I also agree on the effort clearing Kas, because I once did it with e!Kas and it wasn't good.

Would I lynch him?

Probably not as v!Kas is a usefull village asset.

But the possibility

No, I most likely wouldn't, unless substanial evidence comes up.

[JNV]

Hi Ive borrowed a hotsopt to get on dont expect long thoughts Im kinda writing this at school so

10 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I did, or at least I alluded to it:

The bolded there I think is something you missed; the fact that yes, I was interacting with Kas about the assumption but I didn't know how wrong it was (and still really don't! Though I guess the consensus is that it is wrong?). That more than anything else is my fault for not fact checking Illwei. Kas had stated the assumption was wrong but that was the first time that notion had reached me and I didn't know what to believe since there were like five minutes left and I didn't see any reason for Ash to die :P.

And then also here

I'd already justified it based on agreeing with Illwei on something that I remembered to vaguely be true (and at the very least, xino'd already posted more than he had almost the entirety of last game) but I guess it turns out that not only was it not true at all, but Illwei didn't think it was true either and she was the one who said it. In retrospect voting someone for 'something someone else said that's probably true I think' is kinda bad but whatever, that reason is better than no reason for Ash :P.

This is how rumors get started, people  

Oh ok my bad for missing that um it doesnt really make you look too much better honestly at least in my head maybe objectively it helps but I dont know if it makes me feel better about you if that makes sense

3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

So my questions are: @JNV, why didn't you vote? And who would you have voted for?

I forgot rollover happens while Im at school sorry and I couldnt get on the night before probably would have ended up voting one of my always suspicions like Danex or Novel while protesting the cotton candy nothingness of the vote trains going on and being like 'well its a useless vote but its a vote with actual stuff behind it' but oh well didnt happen

35 minutes ago, dannnnnnex said:

Kas himself has previously been an advocate against effort-clearing, i wouldn't be surprised if e!Kas is intentionally being high-effort this game just to teach us all that lesson

like he literally made graphs

that's an amount of effort that is just

ridiculous.

...graphs

Look you dont clear Kasimir for putting in effort you clear Kasimir for being Kasimir and just having the nice vibes and stuff like Im going to trust Kasimir in every game just cause thats how my brain thinks kinda like how Ill suspect Novel and Danex in every game and eighty percent of the time Ill be vindicated on Kasimir and the other twenty Ill vow to adjust my thought processes but wont cause next game Ill just end up trusting them agian besides like the thought of effort clearing someone is just kinda weird inherently like I know the ideal villager puts in effort and tries and stuff but just look at a normal villager that doesnt really happen effort is a way of life not an alignment indicator and strongly deviating from normal amounts of effort is the indicator not the effort in and of itself

Im going to go now I just wanted to respond to stuff peole were saying cause theres a high chance I wont be able to get on again before rollover if you ask me something in the the next hourish I might be able to respond beyond that probably not class exists you know bye now good luck