The Wandering Wizard he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 17 minutes ago, Kasimir said: Well, I guess it could be done, but the question is really what you expect to do with it. Not stabbing a marked player does matter to us, but the real, direct/immediate wincon is stabbing a TD so I guess that's where the interest is. Knowing that none of the stabbed people were Marked C2 doesn't really help us in terms of trying to work out who the TDs might be. It's true that if you are Marked, you are not a TD, but again, we don't gain points from confirming Villagers - it's true it's good to know not to stab there, but it just seems a lot of work for little pay-off. I see your point and yeah, it would probably be more work than it's worth. Don't think that'll stop me from trying to repeatedly bang my head into a wall when I get bored in a class though. 18 minutes ago, Kasimir said: A Bayesian model is just a model that employs Bayes' Theorem. Bayes' Theorem is considered quite useful because it tells us how to update our priors (initial probability assignments) given new evidence. Fascinating. I'll look into it a bit more, but this has me curious. Probably won't help too much with solving, but I'm still going to look into it more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 29 minutes ago, Kasimir said: I do have a guess, yeah, but I've decided it's better not to mention it. Why? There's no reason not to know who killed Turtle. I notice my brother's fiancée and her family in the audience, no doubt watching me to ensure I don't skip out on my debt. My family has refused to repay the dowry this entire time, blaming my brother's death on Merani's corruptive influences. I've tried to explain that she didn't coerce me to do anything, but my family isn't interested in listening, not least because they wanted to keep the money. Now, Merani's family who've always blamed me for the engagement's failure are here to reclaim the wealth they hadn't been prepared to spend. So long as I win, that won't be a problem. If I lose, they might resort to drastic measures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said: Why? There's no reason not to know who killed Turtle. I notice my brother's fiancée and her family in the audience, no doubt watching me to ensure I don't skip out on my debt. My family has refused to repay the dowry this entire time, blaming my brother's death on Merani's corruptive influences. I've tried to explain that she didn't coerce me to do anything, but my family isn't interested in listening, not least because they wanted to keep the money. Now, Merani's family who've always blamed me for the engagement's failure are here to reclaim the wealth they hadn't been prepared to spend. So long as I win, that won't be a problem. If I lose, they might resort to drastic measures. I don't know if I feel sure enough, and I think some of the players in the pool seem suspicious enough to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 Fifty minutes! On mobile so I’m not able to provide a VC. Sorry. I think it’s 2-1-1 with Kas as the 2 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: Fifty minutes! On mobile so I’m not able to provide a VC. Sorry. I think it’s 2-1-1 with Kas as the 2 though. Likely Xino I think. I'll do the vc >> Edited to add: Smh @Matrim's Dice what sort of votecount was that. Totally Unofficial and Not GM-Approved Vote Count: Quote JNV (1): Kas Xino (2): Nerdy, Whysper Wiz (1): Bookwyrm Whysper (1): Chantara Kas (1): Wiz You missed so many people! >> Edited November 17, 2022 by Kasimir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, Kasimir said: Smh @Matrim's Dice what sort of votecount was that. Totally Unofficial and Not GM-Approved Vote Count: Quote JNV (1): Kas Xino (2): Nerdy, Whysper Wiz (1): Bookwyrm Whysper (1): Chantara Kas (1): Wiz You missed so many people! >> Much thanks. I’ll affirm this once I get home in like twenty minutes. Oh, and you don’t even wanna know what the VC I have in my spreadsheet is >> My memory was better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: Oh, and you don’t even wanna know what the VC I have in my spreadsheet is >> My memory was better. :eyes: Now you gotta tell me after the game. Or after I've ascended into Zen stabvana. We are thinking positive thoughts today, death and failure is not an option >> @Devotary of Spontaneity - Think it is clear Nerdy and Misting are making conscious decisions to lurk. Misting is theoretically in the Turtle pool, but so are Cinnamon, Xino, and Danex based off the assumption you're using. I don't see Danex not claiming - the idea of a conf vil read is always red meat to V!Danex and it's one reason I side-eyed him in LG90. Given Xino's history of accuracy, this is theoretically possible. He also didn't claim publicly until much later into QF63. I lean Xino for now. I don't really like rewarding lurkers, and I feel that the fact the small circumscribed set of stabs have been failing suggests the need to broaden the pool. Believe Cinnamon to also be a possibility, though Cinnamon hasn't returned either. JNV. Edited to add: Tbf you could argue accuracy is hitting a TD but I feel you have got to have some kind of luck at any rate to hit a player in the same cycle they're marked. Edited November 17, 2022 by Kasimir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 New and GM Approved VC! xinoehp512 (3): NerdyAarakocra, Whysper, Kasimir The Wandering Wizard (1): The Bookwyrm Whysper (1): Chantara Kasimir (1): The Wandering Wizard Thirty-eight minutes left! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 Time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 (edited) Cycle Four: Sensational Double Backflip “It’s that time of day again! Get excited for our next special guest: Brrrrrridge boy!” “…” “That’s what I like to call Kaladin Stormblessed, if you don’t know. He’s doing his sulky thing again, but he agreed to be here so that's something!” “That was all Syl. I’d rather not be in front of a crowd, if I’m being honest.” “Nonsense. But did I hear the name of my favorite Honorspren?” *slight whooshing noise* “Hi, everyone!! Wow, there’s a lot of people here. They sure are noisy.” “Kind of gives the impression they’re not listening to any of you, doesn’t it?” “Shush, Kal. I’m sure they’re hanging on Adolin and I’s every word.” “Exactly! The Dueling Championship wouldn’t be the same without an interactive announcer.” "Not like much is happening." "Just you wait, Bridge boy. These kinds of things always-- OOOOH!" "Ouch!!! That's gotta hurt!" "You're welcome, for jinxing it." "Yes, thank you. But for anyone who somehow missed it, Tara made an excellent play! Indeed, I've never seen anything like it. Quite the double backflip." "The part where she whacked Whysper was spectacular." "I'd agree, Syl. And she got one of the dummies pretty good too! What a turn of events." "So... did she win?" "Bridge boy, your ignorance regarding the rules is enjoyable, but our time together is at an end. Stay tuned for... what happens next!" Whysper was smacked upside the head! She was a member of Sadeas' Slayers! Elkanah was stabbed! He was a Training Dummy! Chantara has won, and left the arena in honor! She was a member of Sadeas' Slayers! Vote Count: xinoehp512 (3): NerdyAarakocra, Whysper, Kasimir The Wandering Wizard (1): The Bookwyrm Whysper (1): Chantara Kasimir (1): The Wandering Wizard Cycle Four has begun! It will end in about 12 hours, on Thursday, November 17th at 9am PST. For a refresher, here's the rules doc. There will be a majority vote today, with no vote minimum. The winner of this vote will receive immunity from being killed during this cycle. This does not save from being removed if your opponent wins. Self-votes will not be counted. A tied vote results in no one receiving immunity. Don't forget to submit an action! The cycle moves quick. There is no inactivity filter in play, but do your best to post every turn. PMs are closed. If you did not receive a PM and you submitted an action, it failed. For further questions, refer to the aforementioned rules doc or contact me or Araris in your GM PM. Player List: Spoiler @Shining Silhouette @The Wandering Wizard - Lehaz @xinoehp512 @Mr. Misting @The Unknown Novel @The Bookwyrm Turtle - Zlaya Cherepaha - Aladar Attacker @NerdyAarakocra - Khora @dannnnnnex @Cinnamon - Miguel Elkanah - Laelk - Training Dummy Chantara - Tara - Sadeas Slayer @Devotary of Spontaneity - Kionara @Kasimir - Keredin @JNV - Jeleni Whysper - Sadeas Slayer Edited November 17, 2022 by Matrim's Dice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Unknown Order he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 I killed Whysper btw, and unfortunately, I actually reminded Mat about the Mark from a comment I made. So Chant was paired with Turtle as well, that's good, right? Means they wasted a Mark? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Misting he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 Sorry I was at Dragonsteel yesterday and couldn't post and was stupidly busy today. But dang, this is complicated. Hmmm. I just might be in over my head. I'm just going to vote for Kasimir because if I read enough of his comments I might understand what's going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 (edited) Put in that Elk stab due to bad gut, but I'm in the game, so I guess I lost the coin flip to Chantara Ffs RNGesus. Seriously?! I have to keep on doing this? Why? Why are you like this -.- Edited to add: I'm going to vote TUN unless there's a counterclaim and then scream in frustration for a while. Edited November 17, 2022 by Kasimir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xinoehp512 he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 K so my primary device is having some internet troubles. So mobile only for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 Current State of the Stab Tracker: C1 C2 C3 Player Target Success/Fail Player Target Success/Fail Player Target Success/Fail Kas Whysper X Kas Chantara X Kas Elk X Wiz Bookwyrm X Wiz Bookwyrm X Chantara Elk O Bookwyrm Wiz X JNV X X TUN Whysper O Whysper Devo X Silho JNV X Silho X X Devo Bookwyrm X JNV Wiz X Whysper Devo X Devo TUN X Turtle O Hopefully we can get more stab data. Turtle and Chantara definitely appear to be paired. Whysper probably has a lone Aladar partner now. @xinoehp512 You ok with sharing who you've stabbed so far? Same to anyone else basically. IMO, Elk flipping more or less agrees with my thoughts: they're not very fussed about survival if Elk feels free to tiebreak, which implies to me that they're currently slipping very well under the radar. That being said, I was tied with Xino and I find it weird that a TD would prioritise tiebreaking in favour of a Villager, even if it were to try to get me to flip under the sense that I wouldn't otherwise flip. So probably okay with continuing to somewhat V!read Xino. 2 hours ago, The Unknown Novel said: I killed Whysper btw, and unfortunately, I actually reminded Mat about the Mark from a comment I made. Didn't Turtle die C1 to the Mark already? So how are you responsible for the Mark coming back into operation? I take it that Whysper could either be the C2 or C3 Mark. Meaning we still have one unknown Mark in operation. Ngl from Elk's behaviour, suspect it's probably me or Wiz or something else noisy in thread. 2 hours ago, Mr. Misting said: Sorry I was at Dragonsteel yesterday and couldn't post and was stupidly busy today. Fair enough, it definitely happens to us all. 2 hours ago, The Unknown Novel said: So Chant was paired with Turtle as well, that's good, right? Means they wasted a Mark? Not really sure they did - a Mark that doesn't activate is a wasted Mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 22 minutes ago, Kasimir said: Not really sure they did - a Mark that doesn't activate is a wasted Mark. They wasted a mark by killing Turtle, who would have died anyway when Chantara won. This is why it's critically important for the TDs to find the partners of dead duelists as quickly as possible. I attacked Silhouette because he was the only one who claimed attacks without being targeted himself. I'll probably make a different decision this cycle, but won't be around to see it. Of Sadeas we have TUN who's probably village from claiming the Whysper kill. Not so sure about Xino, nobody gets immunity in a tie so Elkanah would have needed to vote for Xino in order to protect him and breaking a tie seven minutes before rollover is noticable if either dies. Better kill someone soon Kas. Cinnamon hasn't posted since C1. Aarakocra's just voted Xino a bunch of times, which indicates Sadeas probably more than TD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said: They wasted a mark by killing Turtle, who would have died anyway when Chantara won. This is why it's critically important for the TDs to find the partners of dead duelists as quickly as possible. Okay, in that sense, yeah. 8 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said: Not so sure about Xino, nobody gets immunity in a tie so Elkanah would have needed to vote for Xino in order to protect him and breaking a tie seven minutes before rollover is noticable if either dies So here's the thing. If we take V!me as a given, which, you might not want to, but I am not really interested in taking TD!me as a starting point here, then what you said wouldn't happen still happened anyway, which is Elk breaking the tie in favour of a Villager. You can disagree about accepting that, but then I hope you'll come back and revise that thought - if you are Village - when I flip Village. The fact I am Village inclines me towards thinking that V!Xino. It's what you said - it's sus either way, so why not actually score a benefit for your team by voting to protect a teammate? I suppose you could counter that Xino wasn't under threat, but really, neither was I. 8 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said: Better kill someone soon Kas. I did. RNGesus and whoever the hell thought the bloody RNGesus tie rule was a good idea disagreed I don't really care, if I die before I take out another TD, I'm still holding to this one, because I am actually pretty damned mad I got this right but don't get to get credit (and I don't mean Village credit, I mean wincon credit) for this anyway. Edited to add: Like again, I don't care if you think I'm lying. At the end of the game, when the spreadsheets are out: I made that stab. And RNGesus damned me to yet another cycle of hoping to get it right. Sure, I'm probably mad tilted by now, but wouldn't you be? You haven't made a single successful kill either, Devo. I did, and that doesn't get to count because of frickin' RNGesus. I'm pretty mad about it. Edited to add 2: 9 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said: Aarakocra's just voted Xino a bunch of times, which indicates Sadeas probably more than TD. If you claim you find SE really fun and your main engagement with the game comes from voting the same player a bunch of times in a game with no PMs, I begin to question whether you are involved in a doc or not. Edited November 17, 2022 by Kasimir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shining Silhouette he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 4 hours ago, Kasimir said: You ok with sharing who you've stabbed so far? Same to anyone else basically. Forgot to stab someone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 14 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said: Forgot to stab someone Oh, don't worry about it. Stabbing is a scam meant to sell RNGesus more hope 4 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said: This is why it's critically important for the TDs to find the partners of dead duelists as quickly as possible. So we either force them to take a blind shot, or we simply don't oblige with Aladar stabbing. Back to the same deal again. Only unknown partner is on Team Aladar now. Current State of the Stab Tracker: C1 C2 C3 Player Target Success/Fail Player Target Success/Fail Player Target Success/Fail Kas Whysper X Kas Chantara X Kas Elk X Wiz Bookwyrm X Wiz Bookwyrm X Chantara Elk O Bookwyrm Wiz X JNV X X TUN Whysper O Whysper Devo X Silho JNV X Devo Silho X Silho X X Devo Bookwyrm X Silho X X JNV Wiz X Whysper Devo X Devo TUN X Turtle O FWIW, light V on Silho for that, maybe. A forget claim seems unnecessary when E!Silho can just claim stabbing anyone he knows to be V. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Bookwyrm he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 I stabbed JNV C2, then Dannex C3. To add to the tables. I believe we also have some fake roleclaims. Kas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shining Silhouette he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 11 minutes ago, Kasimir said: Oh, don't worry about it. Stabbing is a scam meant to sell RNGesus more hope Do you think that not everyone should be stabbing someone each cycle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 (edited) 8 minutes ago, The Bookwyrm said: I stabbed JNV C2, then Dannex C3. To add to the tables. Current State of the Stab Tracker: C1 C2 C3 Player Target Success/Fail Player Target Success/Fail Player Target Success/Fail Kas Whysper X Kas Chantara X Kas Elk X Wiz Bookwyrm X Wiz Bookwyrm X Chantara Elk O Bookwyrm Wiz X JNV X X TUN Whysper O Whysper Devo X Silho JNV X Devo Silho X Silho X X Devo Bookwyrm X Silho X X JNV Wiz X Whysper Devo X Bookwyrn Danex X Devo TUN X Bookwyrm JNV X Turtle O Oh, thanks Bookwyrm. This one is actually extremely good to know, because this puts JNV in a position similar to you - they've survived two attempted stabs in the same cycle. It's entirely possible that there's some Ponzi scheme going on with TDs backing each other to the hilt, but given Elk never claimed, we just don't know, and Wiz-Devo-you is separate from Silho-you-JNV so that adds some credence to both you and JNV being V in my eyes, since you're the connection between the two clusters. So this means: Two Independent Hits: <Bookwyrm, JNV, Devo, Wiz> Single Hit: <TUN, Danex, Silho, Whysper, Chantara> I don't think it looks like an accident to me that we have Whysper and Chantara both in the single hit pool. I'm guessing that survivals may happen but it's good to see the data matching pre-data intuitions that single/independent hits should be some guide to Village status, even if imperfect. 3 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said: Do you think that not everyone should be stabbing someone each cycle? No. I'm just very bitter and angry that RNGesus screwed me over yet again, as usually happens when RNG is involved in a game. I'm never forgetting that goddamned three way redirect clusterchull with Joe -.- Players absolutely should be stabbing no matter what. Even if I kind of just feel like gambling on Elk having tried to set me up and stabbing myself to end it right now. I'll try to find my game attitude but quite frankly, not feeling it right now. Sorry about that. I'll try to tone it down. Edited November 17, 2022 by Kasimir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wandering Wizard he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 Ha! That's got to have gotten the TD's hackles up, a wasted mark on Turtle. A successful one on Whysper and one still floating in the void somewhere. 25 minutes ago, Kasimir said: So we either force them to take a blind shot, or we simply don't oblige with Aladar stabbing. That would work but I don't think all the Sadeas Slayers will go for it, considering they want to win. Wait...actually if we are assuming the TD's decided to equally distribute themselves between the SS and AA, a SS would have a better chance of finding a TD in the SS pool since Elkanah claimed AA, right? Oh, I took a stab at Aarakocra. Hope that helps, might model some stuff later, depends on how much I want to torture myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 (edited) What's interesting to me in the known data is the lack of dispersion. Like, there's a possibility of course that it's not dispersion, that it's just that there's a big slice of the data we're not looking at, but there's still a large skew in my view - first to the talky people, then to the known people, for lack of a better word. I still seriously feel that the <Xino, Mr Misting, Cinnamon, Nerdy> pool is off, if only because of how isolated it seems to be. I acknowledge this could be a lack of data. But I feel like you either have to believe that at least one TD is hiding there (TD comfort, recall) or that RNGesus has been extremely generous, such that all the TDs are in the talkative profile, and most everyone has been hit at least once. I haven't, but then again, I have the benefit of my GM PM. And probably the knowledge that E!me has better things to do than the frankly stupid if I were Evil move of trying to claim shooting Elk - smells too much like trying to ride Village credit, I'd just claim a Villager shot. To begin with, I'd just unvote Xino C2 if I felt it was so important to protect myself, rather than make Elk out me with a very suspicious late vote. One so suspicious that even Devo called it out. Xino...I'm two ways about. I don't feel Elk's move makes sense if Xino was his teammate. At the same time, I did do the Xino Study of LG90 and to link the results here, and quote myself: Quote INACTIVITY and REACTIVITY ([I2] and [I3]) are moderate measures for Xino. He's had a distribution but generally skews MODERATE to HIGH reactivity and has difficulty maintaining activity levels. I don't judge there is a clear pattern across being Elim, in part because I do not question when players have RL influences. It is possible to argue that some players are less motivated to fight RL if they are Evil. I don't want to make that argument here. So I do note he's more out of it than he's been in recent games, but with the mobile and device issues, potentially understandable. But IDK. Current State of the Stab Tracker: C1 C2 C3 Player Target Success/Fail Player Target Success/Fail Player Target Success/Fail Kas Whysper X Kas Chantara X Kas Elk X Wiz Bookwyrm X Wiz Bookwyrm X Chantara Elk O Bookwyrm Wiz X JNV X X TUN Whysper O Whysper Devo X Silho JNV X Devo Silho X Silho X X Devo Bookwyrm X Silho X X JNV Wiz X Whysper Devo X Bookwyrm Danex X Devo TUN X Bookwyrm JNV X Wiz Nerdy X Turtle O Thanks Wiz! Updated version: Two Independent Hits: <Bookwyrm, JNV, Devo, Wiz> Single Hit: <TUN, Danex, Silho, Nerdy, Whysper, Chantara> I feel like this might be one scenario where doing the network chart might make sense to try to ID connections, but I'm tired and not really in the mental state for it, so I won't. I will say this makes me revise a bit on Nerdy, but still a bit ? on Nerdy's engagement pattern and apparent fascination with voting Xino repeatedly It's not a part of SE I find very fun, so maybe that's what I struggle to wrap my head around. Edited November 17, 2022 by Kasimir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wandering Wizard he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, Kasimir said: Two Independent Hits: <Bookwyrm, JNV, Devo, Wiz> Wait, wouldn't Devo have only been hit once, since she had immunity C1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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