Kasimir he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 (edited) 19 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said: Wait, wouldn't Devo have only been hit once, since she had immunity C1? It's an assumption. That's why I italicise it. Because to be fair, C1 immunity is the logical move - biggest chance of stray shots, perhaps. But - what if the Elim team doesn't think that way? You know. Elims would definitely roleblock Xino the Village Lurcher, right? I tend to respond the most to the game I played right before, which is why I mentioned Mat FUD a lot. Right now, the game I'm responding to is the one where we (=Xino and I) built in too many assumptions about Elim play. If we relax the C1 assumption (which, to put in perspective, is still the most reasonable assumption), then Bookwyrm looks even more Village, and you and Devo both share some Village cred because you both took hits in C1 as well. Because it's the most reasonable assumption, I don't want to give that too much weight. But if later, for instance, we realise the Elims haven't actually used the immunity yet, then it's good to know what other things become viable off the C1-C3 data. EDITED TO ADD: SORRY GOT NINJAED, REPOSTING THIS IN A SECOND SORRY. Edited November 17, 2022 by Kasimir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wandering Wizard he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, Kasimir said: It's an assumption. That's why I italicise it. Because to be fair, C1 immunity is the logical move - biggest chance of stray shots, perhaps. I was talking about Devo having immunity from the vote, not TD immunity. 4 minutes ago, Kasimir said: You know. Elims would definitely roleblock Xino the Village Lurcher, right? Definitely Worked out better for them though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NerdyAarakocra They/Them Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 I went after Kas on C2 (When Kas had immunity) and C3. Either Kas is village or a TD who survived the 50% odds. I find it weird that Kas claimed to be AA but voted for Xino, who claimed to be SS. Wizard for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wandering Wizard he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, NerdyAarakocra said: I went after Kas on C2 (When Kas had immunity) and C3. Either Kas is village or a TD who survived the 50% odds. I find it weird that Kas claimed to be AA but voted for Xino, who claimed to be SS. Wizard for now. Yet you vote for me a claimed AA. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 Just now, The Wandering Wizard said: I was talking about Devo having immunity from the vote, not TD immunity. Yeah, but functionally that's not very different from TD immunity, is my thought. The TDs are hardly going to refuse (maybe?) to activate immunity on the basis of E!Devo getting voted, so even if she hadn't voted, she probably wouldn't have gotten hit. You can relax that and demote her if you want to though, I definitely would not hardclear her in an E!Nerdy world. Who I acknowledge I may be tunnelling on again, but - I wouldn't cast a SE is fun judgement in a game where all I got to do was make a line, slap a vote, and stab people without success. 1 minute ago, NerdyAarakocra said: I find it weird that Kas claimed to be AA but voted for Xino, who claimed to be SS. Why is this weird? We don't win by team. We win individually. Only TDs win by team. Is that a reason you are thinking on a team level, Nerdy? As Devo and Whysper and I have argued over repeatedly, once Turtle flipped as an AA, the TDs were going to try to get us to agree to kill a SS to hope to find Turtle's partner. Why would I want to do the TD's work for them? The more space I give myself by refusing to help them execute players they want to Mark, the better my chances are of eventually finding a TD, as long as RNGesus doesn't curse me. 5 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said: Worked out better for them though. Crying in Village PM bro 18 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said: That would work but I don't think all the Sadeas Slayers will go for it, considering they want to win. Wait...actually if we are assuming the TD's decided to equally distribute themselves between the SS and AA, a SS would have a better chance of finding a TD in the SS pool since Elkanah claimed AA, right? Right, sorry, didn't respond here. If we assume they divided themselves 2/2, then sort of but not really? To recap: In my view, Elk never made a formal claim. This is the table I had: Aladar Sadeas Kas Xino Devo (?) TUN Wiz (?) Silho Turtle Devo read Elk as making an RP soft, which okay, I consider fairly reasonable. This is the table she had: Aladar Sadeas Unknown Unknown 2 Kas Xino Misting Whysper Devo TUN Bookwyrm Wiz? Silho Dannex Turtle Cinnamon Chantara Elkanah? Aarakocra? JNV ? for Elk. It's certainly likely that Elk was comfortable with being thought to be of Aladar, but functionally, in a world without full claims, there's just no real way of knowing where the rest of the TDs are. Given the Aladar claims though, and that I don't really feel the immediate need to doubt them, my views on helping the Elims continue to apply: which is - no, thank you. My view also continues to be that to a significant extent, I'd rather exhaust the search grid before going back to stab but I really think that's a me choice and the best overall result will be achieved by each of us selecting different strategies to maximise our chances of success. CONTENT FROM ABOVE WENT HERE THANK YOU SORRY THIS HAS NOT BEEN MY DAY College lost my transcript, my files got lost, I dropped a knife on my foot, and this RNGesus deal, please don't murder me IM thank you I genuinely missed the triple ninja. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NerdyAarakocra They/Them Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 20 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said: Yet you vote for me a claimed AA. Why? ...How do you know my faction? I've never claimed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wandering Wizard he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 12 minutes ago, Kasimir said: Right, sorry, didn't respond here. If we assume they divided themselves 2/2, then sort of but not really? Seems plausibe, could have done a 3/1 but unlikely, would be easy to do though since most haven't claimed. But still highly implausible so Bayesian model says to leave it alone for now. 13 minutes ago, Kasimir said: My view also continues to be that to a significant extent, I'd rather exhaust the search grid before going back to stab but I really think that's a me choice and the best overall result will be achieved by each of us selecting different strategies to maximise our chances of success. Every swordsperson for themselves! Dovie'andi se tovya saigan! 7 minutes ago, Kasimir said: College lost my transcript, my files got lost, I dropped a knife on my foot, and this RNGesus deal, please don't murder me IM thank you I genuinely missed the triple ninja. That sucks! Hope it gets better! Just now, NerdyAarakocra said: ...How do you know my faction? I've never claimed. You've voted only Xino, basically every round. A claimed SS and it seems like you are protecting a teammate. Could be wrong, but most people have you pegged as a SS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said: Seems plausibe, could have done a 3/1 but unlikely, would be easy to do though since most haven't claimed. But still highly implausible so Bayesian model says to leave it alone for now. Oh, I agree, I just meant we don't have full claims so for all we know, they went for a similar strategy to Elk: hint, and let people make their own assumptions. In which case there is no division anyway, because they are just in the ??? area. 2 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said: Every swordsperson for themselves! Yeah. As I said to Whysper, I believe in playing pro-socially with other Village (regardless of faction) since we can help each other via info-sharing. And every TD flip is sort of helpful but even though it also reduces our chances: it does mean we get a chance to try to draw connections and work with that info to identify more TDs. Of course, the alternative could be to double up on those we think are TDs given chances of survival but I prefer diversification - I don't expect us to be able to ID the TDs precisely at this point so I'd rather have a more forgiving landscape for our mistakes than to double down. Diversification also does mean the TDs should be feeling a bit more threat than if they knew for sure we are looking at the same few people That's comforting, as they may act more overtly, which we can then try to pick up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Unknown Order he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 @Kasimir I hit you c1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 (edited) 11 minutes ago, The Unknown Novel said: @Kasimir I hit you c1 Thank you (wow without context this sounds so odd...) 1 hour ago, NerdyAarakocra said: I went after Kas on C2 (When Kas had immunity) and C3. Thank you (same as above) Current State of the Stab Tracker: C1 C2 C3 Player Target Success/Fail Player Target Success/Fail Player Target Success/Fail Kas Whysper X Kas Chantara X Kas Elk X Wiz Bookwyrm X Wiz Bookwyrm X Chantara Elk O Bookwyrm Wiz X JNV X X TUN Whysper O Whysper Devo X Silho JNV X Devo Silho X Silho X X Devo Bookwyrm X Silho X X JNV Wiz X Whysper Devo X Bookwyrm Dannex X Devo TUN X Bookwyrm JNV X Wiz Nerdy X TUN Kas X Nerdy Kas X Nerdy Kas X Turtle O TUN X X Two Independent Hits: <Bookwyrm, JNV, Devo, Wiz, Kas> Single Hit: <TUN, Danex, Silho, Nerdy, Whysper, Chantara> Italics for the C1 hypothesis flag, as mentioned with Wiz. Bookwyrm, JNV, and TUN still look pretty V to me. Still want to give credit to Silho for just saying outright he forgot, feels like it's easy for E!Silho to lie here. Admittedly a low bar given what the Forgotten did in LG73 but still. Edited to add: I suppose if no one will realistically kill TUN and really, no one should be doing it, then the smarter choice is for me to vote for someone I have V credences in. So... Silho I guess, on the strength of the derp, even if I don't know whether that's all that strong. Contemplating moving to Wiz. Edited November 17, 2022 by Kasimir Removing random space Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JNV Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 Hi cant be on long just want to let you know I stabbrd Novel ok bye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 (edited) 6 minutes ago, JNV said: Hi cant be on long just want to let you know I stabbrd Novel ok bye Many thanks Current State of the Stab Tracker: C1 C2 C3 Player Target Success/Fail Player Target Success/Fail Player Target Success/Fail Kas Whysper X Kas Chantara X Kas Elk X Wiz Bookwyrm X Wiz Bookwyrm X Chantara Elk O Bookwyrm Wiz X JNV X X TUN Whysper O Whysper Devo X Silho JNV X Devo Silho X Silho X X Devo Bookwyrm X Silho X X JNV Wiz X Whysper Devo X Bookwyrm Dannex X Devo TUN X Bookwyrm JNV X Wiz Nerdy X TUN Kas X Nerdy Kas X Nerdy Kas X Turtle O TUN X X JNV TUN X Two Independent Hits: <Bookwyrm, JNV, Devo, Wiz, Kas> Single Hit: <TUN, Danex, Silho, Nerdy, Whysper, Chantara> TUN looking more robustly Village with each second Edited to add: My bad, this puts TUN as: Two Independent Hits: <Bookwyrm, JNV, Devo, Wiz, Kas, TUN> Single Hit: <Danex, Silho, Nerdy, Whysper, Chantara> Edited November 17, 2022 by Kasimir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 One hour! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shining Silhouette he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 Kas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 Statement of the Problem for C1 (working on the other cycles because why not.) Spoiler A lot of this is likely because there are so many things we don't know yet. This is a sixteen player game. Four players can't stab (but will have to claim stabs, if pressed.) We have eight stab claims here. That's eight missing. We'll never know Turtle's because Turtle died. Same for Chantara. So drop that back to fourteen. But look at the ones known. We really did end up with a fairly circumscribed stabbing circle C1, from the known info. Going on to visualise C2 and C3. Stressing again this is just my analysis that I'm throwing out here for thoughts, objections. Ultimately I'd rather see a TD loss over a personal win so I have crossed from tilt to not caring anymore. Probably better routes to analysis, but I habitually think aloud into the thread anyway and GM PMs are for swearing into Silho is very isolated and I'm interested in whether anyone linked to Silho but also not surprising IMO - Silho mentioned being busy at Dragonsteel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shining Silhouette he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Kasimir said: Silho is very isolated and I'm interested in whether anyone linked to Silho but also not surprising IMO - Silho mentioned being busy at Dragonsteel. I'm on my on island. It's fine. I don't get murdered or murder people that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said: I'm on my on island. It's fine. I don't get murdered or murder people that way Well, I'm still leaning V!Silho for the moment, though I acknowledge derp clears are dangerous. But at this point, I'm just looking for relatively isolated places - I'll have to build in the empty nodes later on. My current working assumption is that the nodes with most traffic are Village but that's just another way of saying "if you've been stabbed the most times, you are either a very lucky Elim or probably not a good place to stab looking for an Elim." I'm interested in the places that have been undervisited with stabs, and then do analysis from there to ID a good target. But again, just me thinking aloud to the thread. Better if everyone else has their own strategy, or looks for the weaknesses in this one. If the TDs can predict what everyone is doing, then they have an easy time. I think they should suffer too Edited to add: Cycle Two: Spoiler See, the issue with isolation is that isolation can easily be lack of information as well - Chantara is relatively isolated but still was Village. Also a number of repeat stabber players. Turtle node continues to be the niggling unknown. Cycle Three: Spoiler That being said, Elims are unlikely to be high traffic. So C1 issue again. Which is why JNV and Bookwyrm still look very Village. I complicate it because immunity, Devo complicates it because immunity, and also C1. We don't have sight into the Danex side, and the <Xino, MM, Cin> side. If they only interacted with the main clusters (connected via Bookwyrm and JNV), then that's a bit ? Nerdy does have one hit, but he's not high traffic either. Which doesn't say too much either way. Edited November 17, 2022 by Kasimir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wandering Wizard he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 I don't have much time right now, cycle closes in two minutes. I would also prefer a TD loss over a faction win. Kas, gotta protect my analysis buddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 Time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 Cycle Five: New High Score! "It's been an exciting few minutes, dueling enthusiasts! Relatively low-action, to be fair, but exciting all the same. I'm on the edge of my seat, personally. The question is, can the competitors keep it up?" *intense silence as the crowd looks onward* *crashing noises* "OUCH!! Silhouette took quite the slam, there. I'm not sure how he didn't see it coming. Or... it appears his facemask is smeared with some clay. Did he run into a dummy when no one was looking? That's funny! Those are only there for decoration, really. And dismantling. But with that, I don't think Shining will be able to continue. And he's from Sadeas' team!" *slight pause* "...Which is very sad, very sad indeed." *coughing* "Aaaaanyway, we return our attention to-- woah! We return our attention to the three-way collision that just happened! Dannex cleverly used a dummy as a shield against- is that Keredin! I know Keredin!" *yelling* "HEY! KEREDIN! REMEMBER ME? *pause* "Oh, it appears that Keredin was knocked unconscious by Dannex's counterattack, giving Sadeas' Slayers another point. If I were the dueling judge, I'd call that move too aggressive, but I suppose those aren't the rules..." Shining Silhouette was blindsided! He was a member of Sadeas' Slayers! Cinnamon was stabbed! They were a Training Dummy! dannnnnnex has won, and left the arena in happiness! He was a member of Sadeas' Slayers! Kasimir was his opponent, and was a member of Aladar's Attackers. Vote Count: Kasimir (4): Mr. Misting, The Bookwyrm, Shining Silhouette, The Wandering Wizard The Wandering Wizard (1): NerdyAarakocra Shining Silhouette (1): Kasimir Cycle Five has begun! It will end in about 12 hours, on Thursday, November 17th at 9pm PST. For a refresher, here's the rules doc. There will be a majority vote today, with no vote minimum. The winner of this vote will receive immunity from being killed during this cycle. This does not save from being removed if your opponent wins. Self-votes will not be counted. A tied vote results in no one receiving immunity. Don't forget to submit an action! The cycle moves quick. There is no inactivity filter in play, but do your best to post every turn. PMs are closed. If you did not receive a PM and you submitted an action, it failed. For further questions, refer to the aforementioned rules doc or contact me or Araris in your GM PM. Player List: Spoiler Shining Silhouette - Sadeas Slayer @The Wandering Wizard - Lehaz @xinoehp512 @Mr. Misting @The Unknown Novel @The Bookwyrm Turtle - Zlaya Cherepaha - Aladar Attacker @NerdyAarakocra - Khora dannnnnnex - Sadeas Slayer Cinnamon - Miguel - Training Dummy Elkanah - Laelk - Training Dummy Chantara - Tara - Sadeas Slayer @Devotary of Spontaneity - Kionara Kasimir - Keredin - Aladar Attacker @JNV - Jeleni Whysper - Sadeas Slayer 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Unknown Order he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 Come on. I was the one who killed Sil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wandering Wizard he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 May you rest from this madness Kas and be sheltered in the creators palm. I stabbed Mr. Misting. I've got to go now, hopefully will be able to analyze more later. Tis a heavy burden you've left me with Kas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Unknown Order he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 (edited) Well, that's nice to know, he was one of my candidates this cycle. Super complicated and accurate list of trustibility: TUN (Yeah, duh, but also, there are good reasons to trust me, like my slaughter of several villagers) JNV (Slightly surprisingly) Devo (Attacked by Whysper) Bookwyrm (Attacked thrice) Wiz (Attacked by Bookwyrm and JNV) Nerdy/Mr. Misting (Attacked by Wiz) Xino Attacks should probably be among those bottom three, of which there are two TDs. Devo also wouldn’t be a bad hit either. Edited November 17, 2022 by The Unknown Novel 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Misting he/him Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 Ok, ok. This is getting interesting. Apparently I've been stabbed. Somehow I am in still alive and in the top half. I'm going to vote for Nerdy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 Here should be the claim table. C1 C2 C3 C4 Player Target S/F Player Target S/F Player Target S/F Player Target S/F Kas Whysper X Kas Chantara X Kas Elk X TUN Silho O Wiz Book X Wiz Book X Chantara Elk O Wiz Mist X Book Wiz X JNV X X TUN Whysper O Dannex Cinn O Whysper Devo X Silho JNV X Devo Silho X Devo Xino X Silho X X Devo Book X Silho X X JNV Wiz X Whysper Devo X Book Dannex X Devo TUN X Bookwyrm JNV X Wiz Nerdy X TUN Kas X Nerdy Kas X Nerdy Kas X Turtle O TUN X X JNV TUN X Cinnamon not posting C2 or C3 makes C1 immunity more likely. TUN killing two people uncontested makes him a probable villager. Neither elim made any claims. That doesn't mean none of them did but does indicate that claiming is an imposition to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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