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Quick Fix 64: Spies in Starsight


Szeth_Pancakes

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1 hour ago, Ookla the Myopic said:

Read through one: Aman is village

Read through two: Aman is village

Read through three: Aman is evil

Read through four: Aman is village

I am thoroughly confused on Aman, and perhaps it is partially last game and watching from the dead doc.

Aman

The math is not mathing 

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Sorry the Doctor Who joke was too good to miss :( Definitely scuffed your reaction test though, for which I'm sorry!

That would actually be my concern as well but less so on the whether Xino is changing front, more so on the Szeth front. Like - I guess I come from the perspective that it's probably not a deliberate play on Xino's part, just a fundamental discomfort or lack of interest in being Evil. He mentions a lot of times he has RL, which I absolutely think factors in. Which makes it more plausible to me E!him just gives up when there's friction. V!him keeps on showing up. So incentives/attractiveness issue. And I can relate because that is a problem I have when Evil which takes us back to that LG90 longpost and so on. What I'd say I guess is two things:

1. I don't know how much you can change your fundamental psychological incentives, barring an entire different approach. That is, if your inactivity is driven by the fact being Evil isn't appealing to you (and just guessing here) E!you lacks comfort with the thread and just sort of loses motivation to check in, can you really change that just by willing yourself to? It feels like a whole psychology/incentives issue. And yeah I can confirm I've thought a lot about that because of myself and my E problem.

2. I feel like as a GM I would be concerned for my game balance. But there's also the element where you don't want players to be able to meta-game your rands so I'm happy leaving that aside.

3. I guess we come back to how pure you think the trains are, too.

Hoo boy.

FWIW if Aman is Evil he is cheering inside for you now :P 

Edited to add: @_Stick_ Sorry, forgot:

#4: - 

This happens, too. I think rushing to vote is odd when you haven't even read the cycle and are endangered, but the trend shouldn't blind us to the fact that this does happen with V!Xino as well because RL. I just think we see more positive engagement from him when he's V even with RL but there's a lot of give in that read.

So in short I don't disagree with you and given more data, could be incentivised to stop regarding him as a train I'd be happy to back today.

(The math is not mathing :ph34r:)
Hard to break the quote down since I’m on mobile right now but while I agree that it’s not easy to change one’s entire attitude towards an alignment they dislike, but I would still expect at least some level of effort being made to address the tell.

That V!Xino post from MR60 you’ve linked was very late-game, during the last cycle in fact where I was more or less elim confirmed from PoE so I think that level of engagement is fine there. 
 

43 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

If I'm evil, Kas is my partner :ph34r: just saying

@Ookla the Perpetual if you don't like the Xino train, then what train would you prefer?

If Aman is evil he is probably not lying here. :notlikethis:

32 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

What did we say about not open-wolfing in the bloody thread?!??!?!!

Thanks, TIL.

Question for you as I'm backreading right now: why the Mat unvote? @Ookla the Unknown

Edited to add:

@_Stick_ - Not sure if you missed this or I forgot to ask, but why did you read Nerdy as null+? I'm at their post right now and they're a solid null for me.

They are null + for me because I’d expect E!Nerdy’s teammates to advise them on their vote on you - like how it’s bound to attract suspicion towards Nerdy because of how it did kind of feed off Fifth’s comments iirc and because they didn’t present reasons of their own. TWTBAW but since I’m reconsidering my Xino read I’m more open to Nerdy being evil now.

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3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Sorry. This is what happens when

a) you don’t follow the VC and then rush it during rollover and

b) you go to sleep right after rollover and don’t wake up until 12 hours later.

Bookwyrm’s vote was not removed.

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1 minute ago, _Stick_ said:

That V!Xino post from MR60 you’ve linked was very late-game, during the last cycle in fact where I was more or less elim confirmed from PoE so I think that level of engagement is fine there. 

FYI I'm referring to the one from the penultimate cycle where he just shows up and votes you. You were Elim confirmed from the final cycle, no?

1 minute ago, _Stick_ said:

Hard to break the quote down since I’m on mobile right now but while I agree that it’s not easy to change one’s entire attitude towards an alignment they dislike, but I would still expect at least some level of effort being made to address the tell.

I mean...he voted when he didn't need to, didn't he?

Tbh I am re-reading and maybe talking myself into V!you, V!Mat, V!Devo, V!Fifth, V!Hael (very weakly), V!Bookwyrm (maaaaybe), but I also have a massive Mat question mark right now and potential ??? about Aman so something is wrong because if I am correct, where the hell do I go from here?

(Working forthcoming.)

3 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

If Aman is evil he is probably not lying here. :notlikethis:

Is this the one where we try to guess E!Aman again? >>

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2 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Devo's statement about e!Fifth pushing Dannex didn't make a lot of sense to me (since Fifth was not pushing Dannex, as he points out) and like personally if I wanted to distance myself from a teammate I would do it in a way that made more sense? xD It feels like a genuine misunderstanding on Devo's part which I don't expect happens in a Fifth/Devo E/E world.

Specifically the 'no traction on Dannex counterwagons' suggests elims were fine with him dead then opposing the main Dannex counterwagon. Though Kas can certainly be village too so this isn't really a 'wants Dannex dead' proof.

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12 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

They are null + for me because I’d expect E!Nerdy’s teammates to advise them on their vote on you - like how it’s bound to attract suspicion towards Nerdy because of how it did kind of feed off Fifth’s comments iirc and because they didn’t present reasons of their own. TWTBAW but since I’m reconsidering my Xino read I’m more open to Nerdy being evil now.

Actually no I have a question.

We argued a lot in LG90 about the right way to read Archivist - I felt Archivist's vote was TWTBAW and his team should've talked him out of it, you felt it was just straightforwardly Evil. We seem to have swapped positions here - partly as I'm more null on Nerdy than E reading him right now. 

Does this affect your read of the situation? I guess it's true Nerdy's vote was more naked and less gerrymandered than Archivist's.

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25 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Well, that killed the thread :o

Still working on the backread >> Can't get contemporary until I do. I don't think it's as bad as Orlok's timing though, I expect to be up to date fairly soon.

@Szeth_Pancakes Apologies to bother on a similar point again: did you miss Devo's vote on Fifth or is this votejacking action?

I don't see it in the count.

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3 hours ago, The Bookwyrm said:

I'm somewhat confused with the Xino train. As far as I see, he posted once in Cycle 1:

Which boils down to an excuse for inactivity and a vote on Kasimir.

The only thing that's incriminating here is the vote on Kasimir. Based on Stick's reasoning here:

I think Xino could be an Elim. But I don't see enough evidence to go off of that warrants a train on him.

With this further information, would you care to elaborate?

2 hours ago, The Bookwyrm said:

...I'm confused. There isn't an MR62 yet.

...Okay, I did a mistake.

I just spent like ten minutes going back and checking, and the only game I've played with Dannex is LG90, where he was Elim. The other one was BT3, which was broken anyway.

For some reason though, seem to have memories of Dannex playing in a very relaxed way, and his actions last cycle contrasted from that. So if that assumption was inaccurate...

I feel silly now.

I still stand on my Xino train confusion, though. 

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

If I'm evil, Kas is my partner :ph34r: just saying

@Ookla the Perpetual if you don't like the Xino train, then what train would you prefer?

1 hour ago, The Bookwyrm said:

Something I'm unsure of right now. I don't want to be hasty, considering how poorly my Dannex vote turned out.

I feel like this sequence is AI. Someone help me figure out which direction. I'm indecisive.

ED1T:

@The Bookwyrm if you don't want to be hasty with your next vote, what steps are you actively taking in finding a less-hasty vote?

Edited by Amanuensis
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10 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

@Szeth_Pancakes Apologies to bother on a similar point again: did you miss Devo's vote on Fifth or is this votejacking action?

aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

Here I'll just say this: there was no vote manip this turn. Your GM is just bad at VC's :P

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4 minutes ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

Here I'll just say this: there was no vote manip this turn. Your GM is just bad at VC's :P

I >>

Ok look I need some help here I'm sorry :P And it's not just you, if I'm right, it's everyone >>

It is fair that I might be very very tired but like, can I just check some vcs in my notes against yours.

Is there a reason we are asking repeatedly about ties?

Quote

Danex (5): JNV, Bookwyrm, Silver, Aman, Haelbarde
Kas (4): Danex, Nerdy, Kas, Xino
Mat (1): Fifth
Stick (1): Mat
Fifth (1): Devo

Because this looks to me like the vc pre-swap so there's...IDK, no reason to bother? With vote manip or anything?

IDK I just wonder about what we are all smoking because we kept saying there's a tie and there wasn't one even prior to my grumpy switch.

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Just now, Kasimir said:

I >>

Ok look I need some help here I'm sorry :P And it's not just you, if I'm right, it's everyone >>

It is fair that I might be very very tired but like, can I just check some vcs in my notes against yours.

Is there a reason we are asking repeatedly about ties?

Because this looks to me like the vc pre-swap so there's...IDK, no reason to bother? With vote manip or anything?

IDK I just wonder about what we are all smoking because we kept saying there's a tie and there wasn't one even prior to my grumpy switch.

Ok this I can answer.

Someone's in-thread VC missed Silvereye's vote on Dannex, and that VC became the basis of the rest of your VC's for the turn.

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Backreading:

Cycle One:

Spoiler

Early flurry of votes, nothing unusual.

Quote

Devo (1): Kas
Aman (1): Hael
Kas (1): Danex
Hael (1): TUN

TUN asks about Elim team size, about Inner Circle size theorising.

This is sort of what I mean by disinterest: the following four posts are all players responding to that prompt and to each other. TUN only interacts with Stick, in response to her question about how that isn't a veiled question about Inner Circle size.

I am of two minds about this. I don't know that an Elim opens conversation about Inner Circle size - they'd already know, just from looking at the doc. I don't know that asking about it seems Village either. But TUN's the sort of player whose conception of being Village doesn't map across well, and that being said, it can be good bait for IC identity. Not sure.

I switch from Devo to Danex because his thinking about lylo doesn't make sense to me.

Quote

Danex (1): Kas
Aman (1): Hael
Kas (1): Danex
Hael (1): TUN

@Haelbarde asked about the Hal point which I forgot to respond to - it's not related to you, it's related to a game I don't believe you played, but just has to do with a very specific situation I sort of doubt will come up, but dread if it does.

I know Stick was less free during the LG and has more time now but I sort of like the feel of her posts so far, if I'm honest. I just feel they seem more relaxed than they were during LG89 or LG91, both of which were E!Stick games. 

Sliiiiiight potential kayana from me here:

I kind of want to say I think Mat is V off this:

Claiming Winz is a big move, the sort of thing with the potential to explode in your face. An Elim is probably more cautious about this. I don't mean E!Mat doesn't do this, I mean I don't see E!Mat doing this without making sure his team is okay with the blowback because having a member not tell you and actively do something reckless C1 is a bit impolite. He was going to sleep and we know it's late for the NAs. This came nearly two to three hours after rollover, which I think guarantees that he can't really get team feedback / consent.

I'm not betting the farm on this, but it's just a thought that occurred to me when I look at the timestamps.

TUN votes Mat for this, which I feel ??? IDK, it's just an odd reflex move which I get and also don't get. I still am not certain E!TUN immediately makes that vote, but in retrospect, I suppose I'm just not sure.

Quote

Danex (1): Kas
Aman (1): Hael
Kas (1): Danex
Mat (1): TUN

This is going to be a sparser vote/post play-by-play than I did in LG91. The other one felt just a tad unwieldy so I'm now revising my criteria to anything that jumps out at me and vote movements.

As stated, I think this post is a good look for V!Stick:

I think she's using a lot more definitive language than how hedgy E!Stick was in LG91, with less of the 'keeping her options open' vibe to it.

Quote

Danex (2): Kas, Stick
Aman (1): Hael
Kas (1): Danex
Mat (1): TUN

Stick joins on Danex, which makes Danex the lead train. Worth noting here the Danex votes do accumulate rather quickly and unopposed.

Stick notes she V!reads TUN for the mech opening, and disagrees that disengagement from discussion is suspicious, which, fair enough. No stance on TUN's votes specifically.

I am....eh about Stick having V!read TUN for his posts prior to reading his past games. But I also sort of guess they have enough playhistory that Stick might have been running off a general impression. IDK. I flag this because if my read of Stick is wrong, then this is a moment to revise.

On 12/18/2022 at 9:21 PM, Haelbarde said:

Well, sure. But you've got to be careful, as just because something is already known to the eliminators, doesn't mean that they can't learn things from who/how/where that information is disclosed to the larger village. Always a good idea to think through any information you disclose, as to what information might be gleaned by others. I'm quite wary of the attempts to Spartacus for example, as those rarely work as intended and tend to be quite the treasure trove of information.

No disagreement but this is something Hael would say no matter his alignment.

On 12/18/2022 at 10:05 PM, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

The number of elims and inner circle members would have been balanced against each other. Probably within one of each other.

Wiz makes a disconnected comment about 'Village FUD.' On one hand, the tone of the comment is odd. On the other, it's early in the game so /shrug.

I kind of want to say his ease with the thread is a good look but don't know if I'm overdoing it. I feel E!Wiz tries too hard sometimes.

On 12/18/2022 at 11:10 PM, JNV said:

This is actually a pretty neat game cause like our numbers dont matter its not a numbers game its not a race against the clock the elims are also trying to find a hidden minority Id kinda assume slightly more Inner Circle than evils cause we can hit the Inner Circle the evils cant hit evil that information isnt really helpful is it oh well 

I don't disagree Elims already know IC numbers, so while JNV might've been padding this a little, I'm ok with taking this as confirmation it's sort of in that ballpark.

Stick asks JNV about Danex's defensiveness. Presumably because JNV just noted Danex's behaviour was off/odd.

Feels like Aman's opening post sort of has a Hael-Devo connection implied, explicitly says V!Stick, and votes for Danex. Later explained as feeling both Danex votes were pure. No real strong thoughts here: charging a train can be useful in the right circumstances.

Quote

Danex (3): Kas, Stick, Aman
Aman (1): Hael
Kas (1): Danex
Mat (1): TUN

JNV replies to Stick's question, and basically sort of suspects Danex and just commits to the Danex vote. So we get:

Quote

Danex (4): Kas, Stick, Aman, JNV
Aman (1): Hael
Kas (1): Danex
Mat (1): TUN

Four vote train materialising forty-nine minutes shy of the twelve hour mark. That's some fast accretion, especially since Bookwyrm hasn't yet appeared.

TUN unvotes Mat. Not really clear why or what he's doing.

Bookwyrm votes Danex. I...still am not too comfortable with this post. Finding out Bookwyrm had an impression of chill Danex and also isn't referencing LG90 and seeing Bookwyrm explicitly frame this as a sheep makes me feel uncomfortable. I've spelled out why with regard to past!Bookwyrm.

At the same time, IDK. Later Bookwyrm feels a bit pure in response to Stick. But this post, I am okay with E leaning.

Quote

Danex (5): Kas, Stick, Aman, JNV, Bookwyrm
Aman (1): Hael
Kas (1): Danex

This inflates the Danex train to five votes which almost guarantees suspicion on Bookwyrm for a fifth, suspicious vote. There's part of me that wonders if E!Bookwyrm would be advised against such a move by teammates, and also if Bookwyrm would actively learn that such behaviour has gotten him sussed in the past but I suppose not because if not we wouldn't be talking about this. But still.

TUN retracting from Mat or staying on Mat makes no difference IMO. I guess I can see why Stick has Mat/TUN E/E thoughts because this is usually the juncture one tries to make sure there are no Evil trains in sight in case Villagers try to CW.

Fifth posts - writing everything off as NAI, and distrusts TUN, paranoids on me, reads Devo V and is suspicious of that. Opens a new train on Mat. I don't think opening the train is AI - Village!Fifth would be expected to do it. A five vote train on Danex makes no sense, especially with the most recent accumulation, and the relative stability/contentment of the thread. It is also a very low cost place for E!Fifth to gain some Village credit, and E!me would absolutely have done it too.

In retrospect, it's interesting to me that TUN and Fifth are a revolving door of votes on Mat. Makes me wonder about Mat/Fifth E/E worlds. I say this despite V!reading Mat for now, sigh.

Nerdy more or less sheeps Fifth. I'm not a fan of the sheep, but have not been able to correctly read Nerdy in the past so I'm going to leave him as a solid null right now.

Quote

Danex (5): Kas, Stick, Aman, JNV, Bookwyrm
Aman (1): Hael
Kas (2): Danex, Nerdy
Mat (1): Fifth

Fifth more or less policy-votes Mat because I'm defending Mat, and wants to know why Mat claimed Winz. I just find this prima facie weird on several levels: as I keep on saying, if you vote Mat because you find his claim distracting, you obviously don't think Mat is Winz, since a Winz vote is counterproductive for us - we'd rather let the Elims kill Mat and just go for someone else. IDK. You can't separate out E!Mat v. V!Mat worlds, sure, but even engaging with the claim just feels like a net loss from the Village's perspective. As much as early me wanted to vote Mat for it, I also feel that voting Mat for it is a self-fulfilling prophecy: you are creating the very distraction you claim to want to avoid.

In other words:

Spoiler

latest.png

Aman joins on Mat. I vote myself. This ties myself and Danex.

Quote

Danex (3): Stick, JNV, Bookwyrm
Aman (1): Hael
Kas (3): Danex, Nerdy, Kas
Mat (2): Fifth, Aman

Mat explains he wanted to generate a IKYK (ehhhh, disagree but) and also that he found it weird the analysis people were going onto him with what was obviously a joke claim. But...you can't have it both ways. IDK I am honestly at a ESH place where it comes to Fifth and Mat. I think Fifth's vote on Mat still makes no sense and could see it coming from E!Fifth wanting to stash a vote somewhere not Danex. At the same time, I think Mat's "this is a jokey thing why are the analysis people @ing me for it" is weird because if it is obviously jokey, you are not going to bait the NK or generate a IKYK right? Unless you think all the analysis people are Village? In fact, like, if you want to bait a NK with it, I'd think the correct move is to double down, not half-take it back, because admitting it is jokey under pressure really weakens the IKYK force of the claim.

Maybe revising my Mat read I guess.

Aman subsequently unvotes Mat at the mention of the IKYK. Curiosity here: @Amanuensis, interested that you didn't consider a Winz/IC bluff. Unworkable, or?

Aman votes Wiz for lurking. I can see the reasons behind it: don't want to say too much else.

Quote

Danex (3): Stick, JNV, Bookwyrm
Aman (1): Hael
Kas (3): Danex, Nerdy, Kas
Mat (1): Fifth
Wiz (1): Aman

Aman read Nerdy's initial post as too disconnected to be Elim. Which...I can see where he's coming from,  maybe Stick as well, I suppose I'm looking at the vote in isolation.

A point against my thought might be the fact the Elim team is close-reading enough to ID and kill JNV.

Aman asks me if I'm proposing an E!Fifth/E!Danex world because E!Fifth's Mat vote doesn't really make sense otherwise, which I still find weird - as I mentioned, I think it's a low cost, nice PR place for an Elim of Fifth's style to go.

@Ookla the Tall - something I find curious. You keep saying you think the Danex train is bad but once again, you don't really seem interesting in finding alternatives. Your Stick vote was on personal gut, meaning it wasn't going to sell without more marketing. I find that weird because that committed you to the endgame you didn't want, with a choice of two players you didn't want to kill as tie trains. I'm curious why your reaction was to stay on Stick rather than to find a consensus train - there were at least three, if not four players on at EoC who expressed interest in a CW and I suppose I was weakly convincible.

Similar question for @Amanuensis I think, but to a lesser degree as you weren't defending Danex as V: the "how about a side-train?" feels a bit passive? Am curious why you didn't try to create or offer one. If you did in fact want to create/offer one, who would it have been?

I really hate this post but I hate it for reasons that have to do with the fact that Fifth and I have different risk appetites :P And it's so bloody reckless >>

This fundamentally makes sense to me though, and I give him Village points for coming up with it.

20 hours ago, Haelbarde said:

I don't think you were intending to refer to me here - think it was Devo responding to Stick?

This has become a comedy of errors. Anyway, Hael unvotes Aman, and wonderfully, Stick has to subsequently point out that it's actually Fifth rather than Stick or Hael. But I agree with Stick's not E/E reasoning, so I'll work with that, but the layers of identity errors in this particular thing are too damned high.

Quote

Danex (3): Stick, JNV, Bookwyrm
Kas (3): Danex, Nerdy, Kas
Mat (1): Fifth
Wiz (1): Aman

Good post from Stick, IMO. A fair response to Fifth, raising the threat of doc interception, which I partially agree with and partially disagree with. I also generally prefer Stick's view of the function of thread discussion, as much as the doc would be pure. Also nice, proactive prompting of Mat.

A back and forth between Stick and Mat, which I sort of feel highlights Mat's - I don't want to say reactiveness, just dgaf I suppose in light of the situation.

Silver posts and votes for Danex, breaking the tie. I've made my thoughts on Silver clear in response to Stick's post: agree citing me and then voting Danex anyway is odd, Fifth's position makes more sense in that light, voting alongside an E read is odd, even if slight, and if my alignment is in question, then voting Danex whom I sused is ???

I feel like Mat saying that he's opposed to the Wiz vote because he hasn't done anything is /shrug given the default should be willingness to vote. Need to check if Mat has that sort of view of D1 again.

Stick unvotes Danex in response to Silver, maintaining the tie.

Quote

Danex (3): JNV, Bookwyrm, Silver
Kas (3): Danex, Nerdy, Kas
Mat (1): Fifth
Wiz (1): Aman

@_Stick_, another question for you. If you were unsure about the Danex train because of Silver, wouldn't it be better to join Aman on Wiz or vote me? Because you ask Szeth about the consequences of a tie but it'd functionally be a no lynch or a 50-50 chance Danex dies, and that's sort of what you're trying to avoid.

18 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

We hadn’t posted at the time. Btw I’m curious how TUN and I look bad for the Wiznik claims.

To explain my votes a little bit, I supported the Danex train because I felt both Kas and Stick’s votes were pure. I then joined the Mat train to see if any Danex teammates would attempt to join. Then Mat posted something I liked and I decided to look for anyone not being discussed or participating, in case we’re looking at a V!Danex and V!Mat world. Hence Wizard.

Fair point from Aman and something I'd like to hear more from @Ookla Carried by the Wind about.

18 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Potentially willing to vote for Fifth even though last time he was a Jedi.

Still not clear why?

Mat votes for Stick to appease his gut. Which...okay, but I've outlined my eh about it above.

Quote

Danex (3): JNV, Bookwyrm, Silver
Kas (3): Danex, Nerdy, Kas
Mat (1): Fifth
Wiz (1): Aman
Stick (1): Mat

Xino says he had a flight all day. Rechecking his activity...sort of yes and no. I don't want to say too much more about it as I don't want to lean too heavily on it. Hasn't had time to reread the thread and just votes, which is ?

Quote

Danex (3): JNV, Bookwyrm, Silver
Kas (4): Danex, Nerdy, Kas, Xino
Mat (1): Fifth
Wiz (1): Aman
Stick (1): Mat

Mat toys with voting Danex to test things out but doesn't. Which, IDK, do you do that for a player you V read so strongly that you are objecting to voting on him?

14 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Basically, my theory is e!Wizard has more reason than v!Wizard to "get confused" by the FUD because they're actively engaged in finding the Inner Circle.

Question for you at this point: 1. Have your views on Wiz changed since? 2. Where does this place you on Fifth and TUN, who both also reacted vocally to Mat's move?

Also, what did you mean by Bookwyrm feeling chill?

Hael votes Dannex. A bit ? about why Dannex of the whole trains but remember something D2 on it - I suppose my question is, yes you N1ed TUN the last time, but did you really expect to kill TUN with a single vote? @Haelbarde

Side-train vote on Fifth from Devo. IDK, I get V!Devo vibes from her posts but also sort of agree that this is the exact sort of dgaf place an Elim could/would be in this context.

Aman votes Danex. Tie again. Alv is pleased.

Quote

Danex (5): JNV, Bookwyrm, Silver, Aman, Haelbarde
Kas (4): Danex, Nerdy, Kas, Xino
Mat (1): Fifth
Stick (1): Mat
Fifth (1): Devo

EoD, Aman asks about a Wiz flashwagon. No appetite. But this is what I feel gives bite to the question about Mat. Like...this is really chill for someone who really V!read Danex? You have minimally you, Aman, and Hael on board. I grant maybe you don't expect to convince me but there are four players online at EoD. That's fairly possible to make a viable CW...

...Unless, of course, you also think JNV was Winzik and doing Winzik VM on Danex.

I guess where I'm at is that if you're at the sort of nope stage it takes to not like the tie, then you have the numbers for a CW. That's not something I had when I watched the Bookwyrm train go through.

13 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

We're a bit late for pressure. 15 minutes left. Wizard CFD anyone? :P Or at least consolidate on Dannnnnnnnnnnnnnnnex so D1 isn't a total waste.

13 hours ago, Ookla the Tall said:

I mean my vote right now isn’t changing the current trains, I just wish the trains were different and would rather not help something I generally disagree with :P As I mentioned in an edit I ninja’d you with, I do like your reading of the Dannex train so idk.

A tie. Hmm. Well I’m not breaking it :P.

13 hours ago, Haelbarde said:

I've not had the chance to actually process this yet, so I hadn't adjusted anything on the reads/vibes.

I give up and swap.

Quote

Danex (6): JNV, Bookwyrm, Silver, Aman, Haelbarde, Kas
Kas (3): Danex, Nerdy, Xino
Mat (1): Fifth
Stick (1): Mat
Fifth (1): Devo

And that's about it.

I think I'm most comfortable with my V read of Stick. I don't feel so comfortable with a V read of Mat now that I've completed this - willing to agree with Stick on sus. Where Aman is concerned, I don't consider that sus, just ? Need to get a more solid read though. @Ookla the Myopic - Interested in where you swing E on him.

Shockingly, willing to maybe lightly V read Wiz for that opener. I like Bookwyrm's reply to Stick in this cycle, if I'm being honest. It feels sort of pure in a way I haven't yet seen from E!Bookwyrm, but team composition/advice could easily change that.

I am...maybe okay with my V read on Devo but I don't consider it strong. It has to do with the nature of her posts, mostly. They're more dgaf in a way I feel tends to emerge more naturally from V!Devo than E!Devo. That being said, Devo is one of the dgaf voters from last cycle so I'm not sure.

Huh, additional question: @Ookla the Tall You usually argue that we can't assume that V/V trains means Elims on the side-trains. Why are you proposing this here? I remember we usually argue about this!

I'm most willing to revise on Fifth and Hael as I am not sure my reasons are strong ones.

AFAICT non-voters: <Almond, Insanity, Stick, TUN, Wiz>

I am categorically unwilling to believe the Danex train is pure, at this size. 

2 minutes ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

Ok this I can answer.

Someone's in-thread VC missed Silvereye's vote on Dannex, and that VC became the basis of the rest of your VC's for the turn.

Ah, thank you GM Almighty...

This has interesting implications. A question is whether the Elims noticed, and were working off a different count/suggestion from us. Tempted to lean a little positive on Aman for missing this. I do wonder about Mat? It feels like Mat's dgaf makes more sense in this world, with a margin he wasn't going to be able to shift anyway. But at the same time, I feel like Mat genuinely didn't notice it either - easy to lay off Aman's sus on you by pointing out there just wasn't a tie in the first place.

The two places I feel are least likely to be pure are the Danex train, and the five vote pool.

Silver, I suppose. Hael is the other point of reconsideration but that doesn't feel quite right yet though IDK if I can be objective. Wiz and Stick are not players I want to vote on at this point within the non-voter pool. I could maybe be persuaded to Fifth but eh.

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52 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Backreading:

Cycle One:

...

1) Feels like Aman's opening post sort of has a Hael-Devo connection implied, explicitly says V!Stick, and votes for Danex. Later explained as feeling both Danex votes were pure. No real strong thoughts here: charging a train can be useful in the right circumstances.

...

2) Aman subsequently unvotes Mat at the mention of the IKYK. Curiosity here: @Amanuensis, interested that you didn't consider a Winz/IC bluff. Unworkable, or?

...

3) Aman asks me if I'm proposing an E!Fifth/E!Danex world because E!Fifth's Mat vote doesn't really make sense otherwise, which I still find weird - as I mentioned, I think it's a low cost, nice PR place for an Elim of Fifth's style to go.

...

4) Similar question for @Amanuensis I think, but to a lesser degree as you weren't defending Danex as V: the "how about a side-train?" feels a bit passive? Am curious why you didn't try to create or offer one. If you did in fact want to create/offer one, who would it have been?

...

5) Question for you at this point: 1. Have your views on Wiz changed since? 2. Where does this place you on Fifth and TUN, who both also reacted vocally to Mat's move?

...

6) Also, what did you mean by Bookwyrm feeling chill?

1) Yeah I've been thinking about Hael and Devo from the start. I do feel there's at least 1/3 elims between Hael, Devo, and Fifth, but that's mostly PoE / not getting powerful village feels from any of them. Fifth's D2 especially has been underwhelming.

2) I didn't consider any of Mat's posts until I unvoted him. I just voted to diversify train options + bait elims when the opportunity presented itself. TBH me losing faith in Fifth had a bigger impact on me retracting there too. IIRC you and him were going back and forth at the same time and I decided to stop being lazy following other votes and pursue my own ideas.

3) Yeah I only asked because I was trying to get a feel for what you were thinking. I didn't believe in an E!Danex/E!Fifth world specifically, more interpreted that's where you were heading.

4) I could have probably tried harder to get us to yeet side train, but then Danex went completely quiet after I pinged him to help us find a new candidate and I doubled down. Me no likey anti-village play cause then I confuse it for elim.

5) Oh absolutely. Unless you're on a team with Wiz (and thus he would know about my strat this game, which you've obviously caught onto) I doubt he would have engaged with me on the open-wolfing thing.

6) I'd need to reread Bookwyrm's early posts to remind myself why, but I do remember Mat calling them out for their vote on Dannnex, which I didn't find suspicious pre Dannnex flip. That said, I'm now re-evaluating Bookwyrm from our brief interaction I resurfaced. Basically I'm wondering if Bookwyrm ignored the "Kas is my teammate" part of that post and just addressed the direct question because of TMI. Didn't really feel like my alignment was factored into their response. Could have been appeasing? But at the same time, I think elims would attempt to invent a reason to vote there? Idk tbh. I feel like I'm better at generating data than drawing accurate conclusions from them, which is why I wanted to keep you around in the first place, Kas :P

Edited by Amanuensis
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This actually makes things a bit more confusing.

Devo posts the wrong votecount. This is the one missing Silver.

Aman works with that vote count.

Even after Hael comments that he's done his own votecount and fixed it:

15 hours ago, Haelbarde said:

I was about to post a vote tally based on an earlier Stick one, but then it doesn't line up with Devotary's at all, so gonna go back and do my own properly to confirm. 

The misinformation persists because:

15 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

RIP Dannnnnnnnnnnex.

Aman tie-breaks but:

14 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

We're a bit late for pressure. 15 minutes left. Wizard CFD anyone? :P Or at least consolidate on Dannnnnnnnnnnnnnnnex so D1 isn't a total waste.

I feel like Aman sort of has Winz tie in mind but this is just kind of weird because it already is 5-4, and presumably Aman is aware his vote brings it to 5-4. Unless he was still working off Devo's count and just added Hael to it. Which is possible I guess.

14 hours ago, Ookla the Tall said:

Okay I seriously laugh every time Hael spells my name ‘Matt’ please don’t stop

Idk if I want to move. Not to Dannex or Kas because I can’t bring myself to save one over the other and Wiz feels like a cop-out.

Edit: I like that Aman point though…..

Mat explicitly doesn't want a Wiz train here, so is comfortable rolling the dice, which is a position that doesn't really feel like it makes sense with the supposed strength of his Danex read. I say this and yet I still don't feel you open as kayana as he did without making sure the team is good with it >>

Either way, what's important is what I bolded: Mat is also under the impression that he would be tie-breaking.

Hael, having also done a vc that shows this isn't a tie, now asks if it is a tie and figures it is a tie:

14 hours ago, Haelbarde said:

It's a tie atm, right? Do we know what happens on a tie?

14 hours ago, Ookla the Tall said:

A tie. Hmm. Well I’m not breaking it :P.

And this sort of just perpetuates. Though again, IDK, how is this news to you if you were already considering and ruling out a move to me or Danex?

Low key tempted to theorise a Devo-Aman-Mat-Hael Elim team where all of them just share the same confusion/tainted vc in the doc.

Ok, conspiracy moment over. Let's get back to work.

Tbf it's certainly possible the Elim team might not have had a good vc either, if they'd been lazy so this isn't a knock down point.

32 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

1) Yeah I've been thinking about Hael and Devo from the start. I do feel there's at least 1/3 elims between Hael, Devo, and Fifth, but that's mostly PoE / not getting powerful village feels from any of them. Fifth's D2 especially has been underwhelming.

What D2? 

I wouldn't consider my Village feels in any of their case to be powerful, hence my willingness to revise those in particular, but am curious why in your case.

32 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

4) I could have probably tried harder to get us to yeet side train, but then Danex went completely quiet after I pinged him to help us find a new candidate and I doubled down. Me no likey anti-village play cause then I confuse it for elim.

Fair. If you did want to yeet sidetrain, who? Wiz?

32 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

5) Oh absolutely. Unless you're on a team with Wiz (and thus would know about my strat this game, which you've obviously caught onto) I doubt he would have engaged with me on the open-wolfing thing.

Why so? And where does that put you on TUN with regard to TUN having immediately voted Mat for the WInzik claim? Feels like both he and Fifth were vocal about disliking the FUD. To be fair, I was too, just in meme form.

32 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I think elims would attempt to invent a reason to vote there? Idk tbh.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Your guess is as good as mine tbh. My one look at E!Bookwyrm was both opportunism and that he doesn't like to vote off-train. Struggles to generate suspicions when Elim and more consciously blends his posts into site meta format:

 I admit I can't really spell it out but this is something that influenced my outlook on him in the game: his post here is very 'polished', for want of a better word. It's thought out, careful, and correct. He later actually posts a proper tiered reads list. He does struggle with generating suspicions, but a bit more so when Evil. Whereas V!Bookwyrm just has Einstein tongue out photobomb moments (I WISH I KNEW HOW TO DESCRIBE IT BETTER I'M SORRY):

I guess I just found them pure because they weren't really as 'crafted' or 'conventional.' 

Here, in the exchange you outlined, I struggle to form a coherent read. 

do think the fact his responses seem more unorthodox is a point in his favour, hence my comment on purity. I could see V!Bookwyrm declining to comment on the you-me Evil comment because he doesn't feel he has enough information for that. I take your point about not factoring in your alignment, but I guess I'm just not sure I see V!Bookwyrm having the confidence to engage with that either. Just look at how many times he feels the need to tell us he's not sure, or subject to revision...

Edited to add:

Odd question for everyone.

My voteswap was very last minute - suppose that's not clear to the Elims or they at least probably figured Danex was getting lynched, judging from Devo's and Fifth's comments.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Danex (5): JNV, Bookwyrm, Silver, Aman, Haelbarde

IDK. Part of me thinks that if they think JNV is Winz, they're just going to flip JNV anyway because why not, wincon right there. But if we believe the Danex train isn't pure, then this really narrows down the pool.

In a V!Aman and/or V!Hael world, both of them immediately have a way of narrowing a potential Elim to hiding among three people on the train (i.e. whoever isn't them and isn't JNV.)

Is this an acceptable outcome? Or do they withhold and figure they'll come back and finish JNV later or try to ML JNV?

I guess there's the possibility the Danex train is pure as well. I'm just not sure what to think right now.

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20 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I think I'm most comfortable with my V read of Stick. I don't feel so comfortable with a V read of Mat now that I've completed this - willing to agree with Stick on sus. Where Aman is concerned, I don't consider that sus, just ? Need to get a more solid read though. @Ookla the Myopic - Interested in where you swing E on him.

 

I...I can't quite remember exactly why and it is bugging me. AHAH! I remember it was me thinking that Aman and Bookwyrm are teamed, a post by Aman about Bookwyrm and someone else being chill? I seriously can't remember anything, I'm going a bit crazy and I think it's because I'm getting sick. Literally yesterday I set up a board game downstairs, went upstairs and had such a moment of disconnected reality that I didn't really remember setting it up.

I've been feeling better about Aman's more recent posts and I've talked myself into V-reading him for now. Aman.

43 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I kind of want to say his ease with the thread is a good look but don't know if I'm overdoing it. I feel E!Wiz tries too hard sometimes.

On 12/18/2022 at 9:10 AM, JNV said:

Yes, yes I do. I also try a bit too hard when I have too much free time. Hello there QF63 >>

Generally I think a distinction can be made from when I'm trying too hard. If I'm paranoiding my self to the moon and back, I'm likely village. If I'm not paranoiding but trying too hard, I'm evil. 

If I'm neither I'm some form of villager :P

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6 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Of the <Aman, Silvereye, Hael> group I want to look at Silvereye first - who said that they thought their one post was very villagery? >> I think it was Mat? Anywho I don't agree, in fact I think that post was extremely suspicious - it instigated my vote retraction and made me very stressed for a while. Here let me pull it up for reference:

I'd really like to hear more from @Ookla Carried by the Wind because I hesitate to vote on them based off just this post.

I felt that Silvereye's post felt villagery in its effort and that his Dannex vote was one of the better ones (that's a low bar, granted) but since all of his other games have been lower activity, under the radar iirc I'd expect a first time (?) elim to not post that and continue to do what he's been doing. That read has a lot of assumptions about it but I'm ok with it for now.

I'm trying to figure out what made you call the post "extremely suspicious", comment line by line on said post about why you thought so, and then reportedly "hesitate to vote them based off just this post". Like, you seemed to have convinced yourself pretty solidly, so what more do you want? :P Vote him if you think the post is that sus. (Which you do later, and your play this turn has seemed a lot better to me than yesterday so I probably won't case you today. I think you're catchable through VC analysis so I'll leave you to that if you're e)

5 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Bookwyrm. I am willing to vote Xino as well.

Part of me thinks this is a really kayana place for any E player to want to go. We're talking about at least four votes and deciding to be the fifth voter. As before, I'm not sure how a teammate doesn't go "Bruh maybe this is a really bad idea" when Bookwyrm wants to do it.

After reading your post I don't get why you voted Bookwyrm cause I mostly agree with this second paragraph here, and I didn't see you dispute it anywhere in your post. Ignoring all that, though, this turn I think Bookwyrm has been pretty villagery and I'm more than happy v reading him right now. I like his questioning of the xino train and his responses to questions.

5 hours ago, Ookla the Nerdy said:

Hmm... I'm going to go with Xino for now. The fact remains that I have no idea how play this, but Xino seems kinda suspicious after his posts in C1.

I don't know how much I want to ascribe this to new playerness... just the word "posts" is factually inaccurate, xino only had one. That makes me think Nerdy didn't actually ISO xino and just made up something to join the train.

3 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

If I'm evil, Kas is my partner :ph34r: just saying

I don't think that's necessarily true. These are the kind of statements that make me e!read you, it's the same thing with your whole "I'd be shocked if dannex was v!" "Oh I can't believe he was v :(" Like the stating something as a fact and then exaggerating when it wasn't, I don't like that. It allows e!you to solidify dannex's train.

I guess that's why you say e!you = e!Kas, but again, I don't think that's necessarily true. It's definitely within your e!meta to pull that in a v/v :P

1 hour ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

Here I'll just say this: there was no vote manip this turn. Your GM is just bad at VC's :P

Please try your very hardest not to incorrectly kill someone if the VC is close, thanks :P 

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

I'm not betting the farm on this, but it's just a thought that occurred to me when I look at the timestamps.

I know this doesn't mean anything coming from me, but yeah. It was... 11pm, I think? I'd just came home from work and was about to go to bed when I remembered the game had started, so I logged on just to check my alignment. It was a rash decision that I definitely would not have made rashly as elim :P No comment about whether IC!me would do that though. But I'll also say that IC me would not have logged into the doc right then, I'd have probably waited until after I posted again in the morning to try to muddle the timestamps.

...Or would I? :eyes:

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

At the same time, I think Mat's "this is a jokey thing why are the analysis people @ing me for it" is weird because if it is obviously jokey, you are not going to bait the NK or generate a IKYK right? Unless you think all the analysis people are Village? In fact, like, if you want to bait a NK with it, I'd think the correct move is to double down, not half-take it back, because admitting it is jokey under pressure really weakens the IKYK force of the claim.

I mean, in my opinion, an IKYK becomes stronger if it's 'obviously jokey' because that's the point, no? I guess this comes down to how I see IKYKs and if you see them differently I can't explain further. The point of me questioning why Fifth and Aman both were just fine voting me was to question if both were village or if either were cool taking an easy out. The thought on half-taking it back is fair I suppose, and it might make the elims write me off as Winzik, but that was the whole point :)

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

@Ookla the Tall - something I find curious. You keep saying you think the Danex train is bad but once again, you don't really seem interesting in finding alternatives. Your Stick vote was on personal gut, meaning it wasn't going to sell without more marketing. I find that weird because that committed you to the endgame you didn't want, with a choice of two players you didn't want to kill as tie trains. I'm curious why your reaction was to stay on Stick rather than to find a consensus train - there were at least three, if not four players on at EoC who expressed interest in a CW and I suppose I was weakly convincible.

None of those three/four players who expressed interest bothered to find one either, and just based on who had voted on the main trains and who was around and active I almost didn't see a point. Which is a bad mindset, but I knew that as my Stick read was gut I wouldn't be able to make a cohesive case without spending more time than I was willing to spend on a Sunday. And it was the same with finding another alternative. I got to the thread late and wasn't in a place where I could sit down and fully commit so I played it casual and lamented from the sidelines and the decisions of everyone else :P.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Mat toys with voting Danex to test things out but doesn't. Which, IDK, do you do that for a player you V read so strongly that you are objecting to voting on him?

I didn't switch, so that's a moot point.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Where Aman is concerned, I don't consider that sus, just ?

How are you comfortable with a ? Aman xD I guess you didn't say you were comfortable, to be fair. But Aman feels like a player where ? should become sus sooner rather than later.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Huh, additional question: @Ookla the Tall You usually argue that we can't assume that V/V trains means Elims on the side-trains. Why are you proposing this here? I remember we usually argue about this!

You're making my statement that I think there's probably an elim on the main trains exclusive to the thought that there are some on the side trains, which is obviously not the case as there is probably more than 1 elim in this game. I proposed an elim on the main train for the same reason Stick did earlier-- it makes sense. As does some on the side trains. Me saying that doesn't mean I don't think there aren't any elsewhere.

21 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Mat explicitly doesn't want a Wiz train here, so is comfortable rolling the dice, which is a position that doesn't really feel like it makes sense with the supposed strength of his Danex read. I say this and yet I still don't feel you open as kayana as he did without making sure the team is good with it >>

Like. What did you want me to do? In my mind, I had two choices-- either I could kill you over Dannex, vice versa, or I could do nothing. I definitely wasn't going to the former, so I had to be fine with the tie. In situations like that, in the back of my mind is always the phrase "maybe they know something I don't". In essence it's the fact that my reads are not law and there is a village for a reason-- one villager can't win the game by themselves :P So I hoped that dannex was e and that y'all were geniuses but I wasn't willing to jeopardize my own read because I did still read him village.

The people I'm fine calling village are Kas, Silvereye, Stick, Bookwyrm, and Devo. Stick and Devo in particular are kinda sheeping but Stick's D2 has been good for me so there's that. My two strongest e reads are probably Nerdy and Aman, and I vote Aman over Nerdy mostly because I'm far more likely to get a response one way or another. Of course this is where Wiz ninja's me with an unvote.

Anyone else is null for me. I could be convinced on Fifth, Wiz, and maybe TUN and Hael, but not onto xino.

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11 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I feel like Aman sort of has Winz tie in mind but this is just kind of weird because it already is 5-4, and presumably Aman is aware his vote brings it to 5-4. Unless he was still working off Devo's count and just added Hael to it. Which is possible I guess.

I was working off Hael's vc. Usually I make one myself to ensure accuracy but was too lazy / still am :P 

11 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

What D2? 

I wouldn't consider my Village feels in any of their case to be powerful, hence my willingness to revise those in particular, but am curious why in your case.

Exactly!

Why in my case? For Hael, I feel like he's the most overtly villagery, but now that I've come around to a v!Wizard world, I worry that he was keen to do the Flashwagon with me since the outcome wouldn't matter so much as whether or not he'd earn my trust. As for Devo, I never feel like I can read her accurately (or trend toward being suspicious of Devo 9 times out of 10, especially during the early game). TBH I haven't really even attempted to figure out Fifth's alignment because I kinda trust other people (aka you) to catch him first, but also the fact he's posted as many times as he did and nothing stood out to me one way or the other is not a great sign. That + v!me, v!Kas, maaaaaybe v!Mat? I'm thinking of this dataset in terms of who I expect would have figured out JNV being in the IC. I have been considering adding Mat into that grouping too.

18 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Fair. If you did want to yeet sidetrain, who? Wiz?

It would have been Wiz, yeah.

19 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Why so? And where does that put you on TUN with regard to TUN having immediately voted Mat for the WInzik claim? Feels like both he and Fifth were vocal about disliking the FUD. To be fair, I was too, just in meme form.

Basically, if I really did catch e!Wizard openly lamenting at the villager FUD, I don't think his approach today would be to vote me. I felt his reread Aman 4x post was pretty genuine. I don't expect an elim to reread that many times (which I believe he did) just to throw out a OMGUS vote.

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1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

Basically, if I really did catch e!Wizard openly lamenting at the villager FUD, I don't think his approach today would be to vote me. I felt his reread Aman 4x post was pretty genuine. I don't expect an elim to reread that many times (which I believe he did) just to throw out a OMGUS vote.

You don't want to know how much I control F'ed your name and just stared at your posts confused. I am still very confused.

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Just now, Ookla the Myopic said:

You don't want to know how much I control F'ed your name and just stared at your posts confused. I am still very confused.

Sorry :P I'm just trying to have fun while I low-effort solve. Also to generate data from how people treat fun, low-effort, trolly Aman

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