Long Game 92: Process of Elimination

[Araris Valerian he/him]

7 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

So let me get this straight. Elims roleblocked Fadran to cast doubt on the accuracy of an e!Steel scan without Trolling RandBy and their plan today was to… bus Steel anyway?

What's your most likely alternative explanation? I think we are living in a realm of implausible worlds, so just because e!Steel sounds weird doesn't prevent it from being the best explanation.

[Mat he/him]

25 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

So let me get this straight. Elims roleblocked Fadran to cast doubt on the accuracy of an e!Steel scan without Trolling RandBy and their plan today was to… bus Steel anyway?

Is it not possible Fadran is evil and actually just trolled Randby? I guess that makes Araris/Bip weird.

Also what’s the reason Fae is clear? Are they actually clear, or did they just clear Wiz?

[Amanuensis he/him]

15 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

What's your most likely alternative explanation? I think we are living in a realm of implausible worlds, so just because e!Steel sounds weird doesn't prevent it from being the best explanation.

I really don’t know, I personally don’t see e!Steel making sense and don’t love that it’s ~10 votes to 2 rn. This entire push came pretty much from nowhere because of a scan we can’t even trust.

I just feel like there are better leads, and the elims clearly benefit from casting doubt on the second tie scan if true, which I believe it is

ED1T:

@Matrim's Dice I have been considering e!Fadran tbh. He could have roleblocked me N2 and claimed to troll me as well. Plus his only role this game has been casting doubt on scans.

This is a blackout game, after all. Would Kas really put Trolls in a game with Millers too?

Edited February 9, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Mat he/him]

11 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Plus his only role this game has been casting doubt on scans.

This is a blackout game, after all. Would Kas really put Trolls in a game with Millers too?

That’s what I’ve been saying, yeah. imo he doesn’t deserve any credit for claiming that role when he did. Like, he said it was to let us know that scans might be wrong? Why didn’t he claim that role earlier game, then?

Tbh I think it’s possible they exist, it’d explain the high number of scans in a way. But there’s really no reason an e!Miller couldn’t be Fadran, and he could also be e!Troll, with the RBer still being Sart or whoever. That would make Steel village I think.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

So let me get this straight. Elims roleblocked Fadran to cast doubt on the accuracy of an e!Steel scan without Trolling RandBy and their plan today was to… bus Steel anyway?

I mean, with the number of Steel voters, it does seem likely that elims are in there, but I think it paints a very different picture depending on whether they were in the first few votes or the last few votes of the Steel train. One implies v!Steel, the other doesn't.

Also, there were a lot of people involved in scanning Steel. If the elims wanted to frame Steel, that would not actually be that easy.

 

...But alright. I'll entertain the assumption of village!Steel, for one post. See where it leads me, at least.

Everything after this point is analysis under the assumption that Steel is a villager. I do not think he is one, but these are things I think would follow from it if he were.

There are two sides of this.

Vote Analysis

If Steel is village, then this is a premeditated frame-up. Therefore, some of the early votes that kicked off the Steel train are probably cast by elims. I am arbitrarily going to decide that my cutoff for this is the first 5 votes. The first 5 votes on Steel were:

1. Me
2. Wizard
3. Araris
4. Matrim
5. Fadran

Some of these people ought to be evil.

Role Analysis

Araris, Biplet, Fadran, and Randby were all potentially involved in guaranteeing the legitimacy of the scan. If the elims framed Steel, then for each of those players, there most likely ought to be a reason they were unable to guarantee the legitimacy of the scan. Either because they are evil, or because the elims took an action against them.

• Randby: Village, due to being the NK target (NKing an elim to line up a single ML is a bad trade). Therefore, required an action from the elims to troll.
• Fadran: Either evil and trolled Randby while claiming to be blocked, or village and required an action from the elims to block.
• Biplet: Highly suspicious. Biplet claims to have taken a successful action last night. If village!Biplet, her Meme Maker scan could ruin the entire elim plan to frame Steel, so why didn't they interfere with her action??? Difficult to explain this if Biplet is village.
• Araris: Araris could be evil and lying about not submitting an action, or he could be village and unaware that the elims targeted him.

Again, some of these people ought to be evil. I do not believe past cycles have given us very much evidence that the elims could field a whopping 4 roleblock+troll actions (if they were capable of this, I strongly doubt Bookwyrm would have gotten as many scans done before dying). So the simplest explanation is some of them are evil.

Conclusions

[Biplet, Fadran, Araris] are all suspicious. Entirely plausible that multiple elims exist within this pool.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

37 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Araris: Araris could be evil and lying about not submitting an action, or he could be village and unaware that the elims targeted him.

I will point out that in a v!Steel, e!me world I would have just claimed to have scanned Randby as not having been Trolled. Or as having been Trolled, if my team had been unable to account for Biplet, though in that case it would have made sense for me to wait for Biplet's claim, since that would potentially let me lie about the Troll if I'd known she scanned Wiz. 

Edited February 9, 2023 by Araris Valerian

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

3 hours ago, Biplet said:

Wiz, who wasn't trolled

Edit: meant to add, sorry for my extended absence, I had a concert last night!! (not opera). It went very well

Always good to have a good concert!

Guess I owe you a PM

[Ashbringer he/him]

5 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I will point out that in a v!Steel, e!me world I would have just claimed to have scanned Randby as not having been Trolled. Or as having been Trolled, if my team had been unable to account for Biplet, though in that case it would have made sense for me to wait for Biplet's claim, since that would potentially let me lie about the Troll if I'd known she scanned Wiz. 

I mean, there are worlds where E!You doesn’t want to do that. Not knowing whether Biplet actually scanned RandBy or not, and not knowing if V!Steel has any surprises like a second Thread Master.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

...halfway there...

...I admit I'm at least a little paranoid by the sheer number of votes on Steel...

[Mat he/him]

Fadran

Let’s see what happens! 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Just now, Ashbringer said:

I mean, there are worlds where E!You doesn’t want to do that. Not knowing whether Biplet actually scanned RandBy or not, and not knowing if V!Steel has any surprises like a second Thread Master.

Well, I'd say if I was playing it safe I'd just say Randby was Trolled then. That does bring us back to Ada's point, why would my team burn a roleblock and a Troll if I wasn't willing to risk a bit more to get Steel exed?

I'll also say that Drake's line of reasoning is worth following in the case where Steel is elim as well. In that world there are 2 cases; the elims either think they disrupted the scans enough to stop Steel from getting exed (and thus would probably be overrepresented in the Sart voters: Ada, Archer, Ash, and TJ), or they realized quickly that they hadn't/didn't really try, in which case the mid-late Steel voters would be more suspicious.

[|TJ| he/him]

ah screw it sart

steel

@DrakeMarshall, my case against sart isn't just the last minute vote shenanigans (though the motive for that seems to be either to break the tie or to not be involved in one as they unvoted bip as soon as you voted for her) or the fact the he hasn't claimed. its because it's all of the above plus I think hes the e!roleblocker evidenced by the fact that both me and amans action on him was just an attempt. 

Edited February 9, 2023 by |TJ|

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, |TJ| said:

ah screw it sart

b]steel[/b]

@DrakeMarshall, my case against sart isn't just the last minute vote shenanigans (though the motive for that seems to be either to break the tie or to not be involved in one as they unvoted bip as soon as you voted for her) or the fact the he hasn't claimed. its because it's all of the above plus I think hes the e!roleblocker evidenced by the fact that both me and amans action on him was just an attempt. 

I’m not sure how effective arguing that towards Drake will be since his reason for reading Sart village is the same as yours to read him elim  

And I mean why would Aman and your actions both failing be a reason for him to be the RBer? RBers can hit one person at a time, last I checked.

[|TJ| he/him]

5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

And I mean why would Aman and your actions both failing be a reason for him to be the RBer? RBers can hit one person at a time, last I checked.

our actions didn't fail, we attempted to do our actions. my theory is that we both lost coin tosses against his rb. 

[Mat he/him]

3 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

our actions didn't fail, we attempted to do our actions. my theory is that we both lost coin tosses against his rb. 

That’s what I mean though

Like you thought that Sart RBd you, and you RBd Sart, and he won the toss, yeah? Which makes sense, sure. But that has nothing to do with Aman’s action.

[Amanuensis he/him]

7 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

our actions didn't fail, we attempted to do our actions. my theory is that we both lost coin tosses against his rb. 

I think my Troll would always succeed on you, even if you were roleblocking me, right? I feel like Sart probably has a passive night action immunity role, similar to Archer's (if not the same).

Edited February 9, 2023 by Amanuensis

[|TJ| he/him]

7 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Like you thought that Sart RBd you, and you RBd Sart, and he won the toss, yeah? Which makes sense, sure. But that has nothing to do with Aman’s action.

ah no, i rbd sart, sart rbd someone else (like now it could be fadran). sart won the toss. 

5 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I feel like my Troll would always succeed on you, even if you were roleblocking me, right? I feel like Sart probably has a passive night action immunity role, similar to Archer's (if not the same).

not quite. troll and rb are on same ooa. so if I win the toss, i block your troll. if you win... well you basically enable your troll to go through xD

edit: I'm confused let me clarify 

Edited February 9, 2023 by |TJ|

[Araris Valerian he/him]

We don't really need Sart to account for an extra RB or anything though, do we? Plenty of folks could have extra roles or simply be lying about the roles they claim to have. There's no stated upper limit on the number of roles for a player, is there? (note, I think 2 is max, but we can't 100% assume that)

Is there a world where both Sart and Steel are elim? Sart being a RB would help elims have enough disruption for messing with the scan. I suppose this implies minimal activity/thread control from the elims, since that would mean all the discussion today has been on elims, and there hasn't been a strong push toward anyone else.

[Amanuensis he/him]

I would like @Steeldancer's thoughts about all this

[Ashbringer he/him]

Steel's waiting on a pinchhitter, I... don't think repeated tagging is going to be much help.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

1 hour ago, |TJ| said:

ah screw it sart

steel

@DrakeMarshall, my case against sart isn't just the last minute vote shenanigans (though the motive for that seems to be either to break the tie or to not be involved in one as they unvoted bip as soon as you voted for her) or the fact the he hasn't claimed. its because it's all of the above plus I think hes the e!roleblocker evidenced by the fact that both me and amans action on him was just an attempt. 

Isn't the possibility that he's an e!roleblocker, like, basically because he hasn't claimed?

Don't get me wrong, I agree with you. Any kind of PoE-based roles analysis does not favor Sart.

Think the elims have a roleblocker? Sart could be a roleblocker.

Think the elims have a troll? Sart could be a troll.

Think the elims have a PM spider? Sart could be a PM spider.

If you are focusing mainly on that type of analysis, then yeah, Sart for sure comes in last place.

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

I think my Troll would always succeed on you, even if you were roleblocking me, right? I feel like Sart probably has a passive night action immunity role, similar to Archer's (if not the same).

I have it on good authority that the message you get from targeting Archer unequivocally states that your action fails. Not that I would know from firsthand experience or anything ;).

Whereas it sounds like targeting Sart resulted in a message like "you attempted to do X to Sart."

I don't know what this means, but I do know the effect surrounding Sart doesn't seem to be the exact same thing as Archer's power. Although it does seem very similar.

46 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

We don't really need Sart to account for an extra RB or anything though, do we? Plenty of folks could have extra roles or simply be lying about the roles they claim to have. There's no stated upper limit on the number of roles for a player, is there? (note, I think 2 is max, but we can't 100% assume that)

Is there a world where both Sart and Steel are elim? Sart being a RB would help elims have enough disruption for messing with the scan. I suppose this implies minimal activity/thread control from the elims, since that would mean all the discussion today has been on elims, and there hasn't been a strong push toward anyone else.

I agree with all of this.

22 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Steel's waiting on a pinchhitter, I... don't think repeated tagging is going to be much help.

Hm. Well that's a bit awkward.

So rn we're voting between one player who hasn't shown up in the cycle yet and another player who hasn't shown up in the cycle yet.

Feels kinda bad, even if the reasons are there

In a shocking turn of events, people who aren't there don't do a very good job of defending themselves

...The discussion has been surprisingly vital though, all things considered

[Ashbringer he/him]

I'd imagine that the elims lack thread control. Who's in thread control? Because it's essentially just been Aman. Maybe arguments for Bookwyrm, Drake, Ash, and Mat. But Bookwyrm's our seeker and now dead, Drake's our Coinshot and getting tinfoiled, I'm roleclear of at least being an interferer and clear of being Elim if I'm telling the truth, and Mat was greenscanned.

Like, maybe Drake is elim thread control? Who else would it even be? (Could be me, but I'm in the I'm-asserting-I'm-Village portion of the game.)

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

I might be tunneling but I am a strong proponent of E!Drake

[Kasimir he/him]

10 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

...halfway there...

...I admit I'm at least a little paranoid by the sheer number of votes on Steel...

Ftfy, though people who don't Reddit in German probably won't get this

Spoiler

Quote

Vote Tally
Steeldancer (7): Araris Valerian, Archer, Channelknight Fadran, JNV, The Wandering Wizard, The last Fae in the Woods, DrakeMarshall
Sart (3): Amanuensis, Ashbringer, TJ
Channelknight Fadran (1): Matrim's Dice

@DrakeMarshall, of all people, Tallybot got you wrong as well due to that bit of Tani colour-coding :eyes:

[Archer he/him]

Hi I'm counting on y'all to figure out the action interactions so someone tell me when that's sorted out, please and thanks. Do we know why they didn't just RB Randby, would that have done anything? 

I don't see e!Sart and e!Steel together since the elims benefit from the tie if they can make up the results. Similar situation with e!Silh. Which now that I think about it implies v!Steel, redscan aside. 

7 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

I'd imagine that the elims lack thread control. Who's in thread control? Because it's essentially just been Aman. Maybe arguments for Bookwyrm, Drake, Ash, and Mat. But Bookwyrm's our seeker and now dead, Drake's our Coinshot and getting tinfoiled, I'm roleclear of at least being an interferer and clear of being Elim if I'm telling the truth, and Mat was greenscanned.

Like, maybe Drake is elim thread control? Who else would it even be? (Could be me, but I'm in the I'm-asserting-I'm-Village portion of the game.)

Interesting consequence of this game is they're bound to gun entirely for role based kills. Discussion Leader (the role) is a more manageable threat via murder than Discussion Leader (the characteristic). It's rather refreshing. 

2 hours ago, Shining Silhouette said:

I might be tunneling but I am a strong proponent of E!Drake

Hey what's he ever done to you :P. 

32 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Ftfy, though people who don't Reddit in German probably won't get this

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@DrakeMarshall, of all people, Tallybot got you wrong as well due to that bit of Tani colour-coding :eyes:

Everytime I open Reddit it asks if I want to translate the site from German. I think because Reddit looks like a German word