Long Game 92: Process of Elimination

[Amanuensis he/him]

Woah. JNV/Archer is a fun theory I could get behind. But then my question would be if V!Steel told us the truth about the second tie scan having 2 elims, Biplet would have had to sneak in to replace Archer, right? Only Wiz and I are still alive among the New Voters

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

imma predict e!Steel but this is why Orlok's scan will be really great so that we can resolve that

assuming Orlok's village of course but it seems decently likely

[Amanuensis he/him]

Just now, DrakeMarshall said:

imma predict e!Steel but this is why Orlok's scan will be really great so that we can resolve that

assuming Orlok's village of course but it seems decently likely

I'd be very impressed if the elims used any NKs on themselves. Still think they've had two kills this entire game to balance out the kayana roles that exist and the fact that nearly everyone has 2 of them, so they could def afford to shoot one of their players--maybe n1 so they could put in kills for the rest of the game--but otherwise, this late in the game, they'd probably win sooner by targeting village power roles (i.e. RPers, Pinch Hitters, Discussion Leaders, and Wallposters)

[|TJ| he/him]

23 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

oops

if you are legit about this i suppose that implies ur probably village

well i knew it would probably be a crapshoot but

beans

you read your sacred numbers upside down, i was 999, not 666 :P. 

also all the removed villagers, beware the parity hammer this cycle and be ready to use your final vote if that happens at eod. 

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

6 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I'd be very impressed if the elims used any NKs on themselves.

That's a requirement for me being evil!

7 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Still think they've had two kills this entire game to balance out the kayana roles that exist and the fact that nearly everyone has 2 of them, so they could def afford to shoot one of their players--maybe n1 so they could put in kills for the rest of the game--but otherwise, this late in the game, they'd probably win sooner by targeting village power roles (i.e. RPers, Pinch Hitters, Discussion Leaders, and Wallposters)

I mean I don't disagree that it's sound strategy, but also, like, isn't that kinda ruthless?

like unless you have somebody who volunteers on D1 of being an elim to get shot, you are basically doing a way more extreme version of bussing

have i done something like that b4? well yes actually kind of, i had a special win con at the time to justify it it worked really well too but that is besides the point i wasn't part of this game on N1!!

[Amanuensis he/him]

10 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

That's a requirement for me being evil!

I mean I don't disagree that it's sound strategy, but also, like, isn't that kinda ruthless?

like unless you have somebody who volunteers on D1 of being an elim to get shot, you are basically doing a way more extreme version of bussing

have i done something like that b4? well yes actually kind of, i had a special win con at the time to justify it it worked really well too but that is besides the point i wasn't part of this game on N1!!

TBF I believe Stick would execute such a dastardly plan, given the opportunity, and that Tani would volunteer, assuming she had the roles on their team they could live the most without. I don't blame you for the transgressions of your previous incarnation, of course, though with Stick gone you shall eventually need to suffer the consequences of her actions

Edited February 11, 2023 by Amanuensis

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

The wisdom of the sacred numbers:

Spoiler

Tani (rip)
Sart (rip)
Steel (rip)
Silho (rip)
Biplet
Fae
JNV
Archer
Fadran
Xino (rip)
Ash
TJ (rip)
Wizard
Dannex (rip)
Walin (rip)
Matrim
Araris
Aman
TKN (rip)
Devo (rip)
Randby (rip)
Orlok (rip)
Striker (rip)
Book (rip)
Drake

Evidence:

Spoiler

 

[Archer he/him]

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

Why would e!Ash kill Sart? And also, why would e!Ash very helpfully provide lists of alignments, roleclaims, and other things that I haven’t bothered to keep track of myself?

Elims have to do that anyway, so might as well do it publicly for cred. You see that with VCs sometimes. 

The Sart thing is a very good question 

Ash

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

 

That said, I'm like 75% v!Ash myself. Tho I do admit the minus-1 vote thing is... hm. We've never seen another player with that role and that's odd to me. But I guess the same is true for Lynchbait and Stab Voter

Why would he need a minus vote thing if he can't be exed ever? 

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

It's more that I believe in V!Steel, which means I believe in the sanctity of the second tie having 2 elims from the first tie, which means I also believe in V!You and V!TJ. More so V!TJ than V!You tho unfortunately you couldn't get shot so idk. If I were Drake I'd probably have shot Mat to collapse the Mat/JNV link earlier rather than later or even shot Fadran just for the claim of being the only "Confirmed Villager"

 

 

 

The thing about confirmed villager is its such a good name. I feel like it's not made up. But it could easily be in the hands of an elim for obvious reasons and they claimed early for cred

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

Oh yeah, I’m way more confident in v!Ada now. There’s no way he could have known I’d scan Orlok, and no reason for e!him to have claimed honestly about that. I suppose he could have Trolled me. But that still requires a lucky guess of who I scan, all for what I consider to be little gain, given my vocal village read of him already.

I'll buy that 

57 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

TBH I kinda want to start my day voting Archer. Why?

- Surely one of the A names must be evil

- Surely one of the PM Spiders must be evil

- Surely his one-of-a-kind role-immunity role is elim sided

37 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

i think e!jnv accurately said mat is village. and jnv-archer fits well because archer is the only pmer who confirmed it was possible to get alignment scans. no one else did. 

My quotes got sandwiched. That's ok there's nothing to defend against anyway. 

Any PMer can ask the GM what the menu of options are, as I did once someone mentioned a narrow list in thread. 

5 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

That's a requirement for me being evil!

I mean I don't disagree that it's sound strategy, but also, like, isn't that kinda ruthless?

like unless you have somebody who volunteers on D1 of being an elim to get shot, you are basically doing a way more extreme version of bussing

have i done something like that b4? well yes actually kind of, i had a special win con at the time to justify it it worked really well too but that is besides the point i wasn't part of this game on N1!!

It sets up v!CS credences, reducing scrutiny. Thing is N1 I'm not sure they'd be confident that Tani would survive. It wasn't entirely clear that everyone would live, might have just been exe victims 

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

1 minute ago, Archer said:

It sets up v!CS credences, reducing scrutiny.

If so it obviously isn't working!! >:P

2 minutes ago, Archer said:

Thing is N1 I'm not sure they'd be confident that Tani would survive. It wasn't entirely clear that everyone would live, might have just been exe victims 

Not something that had occurred to me.

Torn between thinking this is indeed something that came up in the elim doc and sussing you for mentioning it, or not doing that.

[Ashbringer he/him]

ALIGNMENTS:

Spoiler

• Aman - Village - From Striker Lynchbait Scan, Sart N1 Scan
• Striker - Village - From Bookwyrm N1 Scan
• Wizard - Village - From Fae 'SE Buddy' role
• Orlok - Village - From Bookwyrm N2 Scan, backed up by Araris antitroll.
• Mat - Village - From UPS Scan
• Araris - Village - From Bookwyrm N3 Scan, Sart N2 Scan
• Biplet Elim - From Sart N3 Scan
• Steel - Elim - From RandBy N4 Scan
• Tani - Elim - Claimed
• Shining - Okay fine claim redacted
• 2 Elims in pool of Mat/Drake/Ash/Shining/TJ/Archer/Steel/TKN - from Orlok Tie Guy
• 2 Elims in pool of Mat/Drake/Ash/Shining/Biplet/Wizard/Amanuensis/Orlok - from Steel Tie Guy

ROLES:

Spoiler

• Ashbringer - Thread Master (Immune to Execution), Veteran (Removes one vote from self) 
  • (Status - Role 1 Proven, Role 2 Proven)
• Wizard - PM Spider (Creates a 1-on-1 PM on Odd Nights and learns a fact about a target on Even Nights (incorrect fact if Trolled) ) 
  • (Status - Role 1 Proven, Role 2 Unknown)
• Steeldancer - Pinch Hitter (Copy the Role of a Removed/DDoSed player (does something interesting if Trolled) ) 
  • (Status - Role 1 Proven, Role 2 Unknown)
• Fadran - Troll (may Troll players, gives a random player Troll Immunity next cycle if Trolled), Confirmed Villager (Always scans as Village) (Seems concerned about someone who's trying to incite a civil war, thus providing the necessary blood sacrifice to complete the nationwide transmutation circle in order to create a sufficiently powerful philosopher's stone and attain God)
  • (Status - Role 1 Proven via Troll Immunity generation, Role 2 Unproven)
• Striker - Lynchbait (Will place an Extra Vote on a random player who both had a vote on the Lynchbait at the 24 hour mark of the previous Day turn and is of the same alignment), Stab Voter (If your first vote is placed in the first 24 hours of a Day turn and does not change, it counts as double)
  • (Status - Role 1 Proven, Role 2 Unproven, Dead)
• xino - Multiquoter (Learn target's target (learn who targeted the target if Trolled) )
  • (Status - Role 1 Unproven, Role 2 Unknown)
• JNV - UPS Driver / PM Spider (Creates a 1-on-1 PM on Odd Nights and learns a fact about a target on Even Nights (incorrect fact if Trolled) ) 
  • (Status - Role 1 Proven, Role 2 Unknown)
• Matrim's Dice - Tunnel Constructor (Force execution to either kill you or a target player) 
  • (Status - Role 1 Unproven, Role 2 Unknown)
• Biplet - Meme Maker (Can see if a target gets Trolled (false info if Trolled) ) 
  • (Status - Role 1 Proven as Bip knew the role name, Role 2 Unknown)
• Araris - Meme Maker (Can see if a target gets Trolled (false info if Trolled) ), Porch-Sitter (Added vote to self, more powerful other effect) 
  • (Status - Role 1 Proven, Role 2 Proven but to unknown effect)
• Devotary - RPer (May copy one of target player's roles to use the next turn (temporarily grants the RPer role to the Troll (or the target?) if Trolled) )
  • (Status - Role 1 Proven, Role 2 Unknown)
• Amanuensis - Goalkeeper (Protect target other player (turned to a Kill if Trolled) ), Troll (may Troll players, gives a random player Troll Immunity next cycle if Trolled... I think) 
  • (Status - Role 1 Proven via initial claims, Role 2 Proven via initial claims)
• TKN - Goalkeeper (Protect target other player (turned to a Kill if Trolled) )
• The Bookwyrm - Analyst (Alignment Scan someone you voted for or who voted on you last turn (incorrect alignment if Trolled)
  • (Status - Role 1 Proven via RandBy, Role 2 Unknown)
• Tani - RPer (May copy one of target player's roles to use the next turn (temporarily grants the RPer role to the Troll (or the target?) if Trolled) )
  • (Status - Role 1 Unproven, Role 2 Unknown)
• Archer - PM Spider (Creates a 1-on-1 PM on Odd Nights and learns a fact about a target on Even Nights (incorrect fact if Trolled) ), Rules Ignorer (Ignores most Night Actions) 
  • (Status - Role 1 Proven, Role 2 Unproven even if it would explain a good amount)
• Walin - Troll (may Troll players, gives a random player Troll Immunity next cycle if Trolled... I think)
  • (Status - Role 1 Proven via Troll Immunity, Role 2 Unknown)
• TJ - Wallposter (Roleblock target player (Makes target immune to non-Troll Disruption if Trolled) ), Veteran (Removes one vote from self)
  • (Status - Role 1 PseudoProven, Role 2 PseudoProven but can confirm via a vote)
• Dannnnnex - Tie Guy (Learn alignments of players involved in a tie (need specifics, ??? If Trolled)
  • (Status - Role 1 Proven via Orlok and Steel, Role 2 Unknown)
• _Stick_/Drake - Terminal Seeker (NK a target (protects the target if Trolled) ) 
  • (Status - Role 1 Proven, Role 2 Unknown)
• Orlok - Pinch Hitter (Copy the Role of a Removed/DDoSed player (does something interesting if Trolled) ) 
  • (Status - Role 1 Proven, Role 2 Unknown)
• RandBy - RPer (May copy one of target player's roles to use the next turn (temporarily grants the RPer role to the Troll (or the target?) if Trolled) ), Tunnel Constructor (Force execution to either kill you or a target player) 
  • (Status - Role 1 Proven via initial claim, Role 2 Unproven)
• Sart - Analyst (Alignment Scan someone you voted for or who voted on you last turn (incorrect alignment if Trolled)
• Shining - Discussion Leader (Move a vote) 
  • (Status - Role 1 Proven, Role 2 Unproven)
• Fae - PM Spider (Creates a 1-on-1 PM on Odd Nights and learns a fact about a target on Even Nights (incorrect fact if Trolled) ), SE Buddy (Automatically know one Villager is Village at game start) 
  • (Status - Role 1 Proven, Role 2 Unproven)

We're missing an Elim Roleblocker.

 

I don't particularly trust Sart's scans, but they're there. Also makes 1 Elim in [Sart/Biplet] highly likely.

[Orlok Tsubodai he/him]

@Amanuensis, @Araris Valerian, the scan came back that Steel was an SE player.

[|TJ| he/him]

Ah, so v!steel - 

2e in Mat/Drake/Ash/Archer
2e in Mat/Drake/Ash/Biplet (+ Wiz/Aman)

meaning at least 1 e in Mat/Drake/Ash

edit - wait no opposite of se player is e!steel...

Edited February 11, 2023 by |TJ|

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

7 hours ago, Archer said:

Any PMer can ask the GM what the menu of options are, as I did once someone mentioned a narrow list in thread

I can try but last time I got PAFOd.

8 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Woah. JNV/Archer is a fun theory I could get behind. But then my question would be if V!Steel told us the truth about the second tie scan having 2 elims, Biplet would have had to sneak in to replace Archer, right? Only Wiz and I are still alive among the New Voters

What's up with everyone forgetting Orlok? Last I checked he wasn't dead.

Edit: Yes PM Spiders can scan alignment.

Edited February 11, 2023 by The Wandering Wizard

[Orlok Tsubodai he/him]

2 hours ago, |TJ| said:

Ah, so v!steel - 

2e in Mat/Drake/Ash/Archer
2e in Mat/Drake/Ash/Biplet (+ Wiz/Aman)

meaning at least 1 e in Mat/Drake/Ash

edit - wait no opposite of se player is e!steel...

Doesn’t it imply e!Steel, given we know I was trolled by Aman?

Edit: missed your own edit

[Amanuensis he/him]

37 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Doesn’t it imply e!Steel, given we know I was trolled by Aman?

Edit: missed your own edit

Not what I expected. Now D5 makes zero sense to me again

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

6 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

• Shining - Okay fine claim redacted

YESSSSSSSSSSSS

6 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Also makes 1 Elim in [Sart/Biplet] highly likely.

Forgot if I said this or not, but or the record, I'm leaning toward V!Bip based on tone

Edit:

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

Not what I expected. Now D5 makes zero sense to me again

This game made sense to you once??

Edited February 11, 2023 by Shining Silhouette

[Amanuensis he/him]

Why does e!Tani attempt to interfere with a tie where the results don't matter cause e!Steel can lie about them?

Yeah, wha?

Either Araris is lying or both Orlok and Araris are?

ED1T:

But Orlok was NK'd so... what?

E!Steel legitimately makes zero logical sense D5 and I am deeply unhappy and refuse to believe it until the aftermath

ED2T:

I also officially give up. Someone kill me ASAP thanks

ED3T:

Alright obviously I'm kidding about giving up but just wanted to clarify that for anyone who might think I'm serious

I am very very confused tho. e!Tani seemed intent on using her single remaining vote to interfere with the tie, but I discouraged it by getting Silho to move her vote and waste it, which I believed meant that the tie scan would be legit. But that was just wolf theater? I'm pretty sure when she voted it was when the exe was between Ash and Bip, too.

Edited February 11, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Araris Valerian he/him]

So we have either e!Steel or e!Orlok at this point, with the former seeming quite a bit more likely. That fits nicely with e!Sart, and of course we have e!Tani.

e!Steel’s claim of 2 elims from the Tie Guy seems to be set up so that we’d think 2 out of Mat/Drake/Ash/Shining would be elim, or at least one of them. Right? Which seems to incriminate Archer (if both Shining and TKN are village) and to look good for Bip, Wizard, and Ada.

Okay then. Fadran Archer.

Edited February 11, 2023 by Araris Valerian

[Amanuensis he/him]

29 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

So we have either e!Steel or e!Orlok at this point, with the former seeming quite a bit more likely. That fits nicely with e!Sart, and of course we have e!Tani.

e!Steel’s claim of 2 elims from the Tie Guy seems to be set up so that we’d think 2 out of Mat/Drake/Ash/Shining would be elim, or at least one of them. Right? Which seems to incriminate Archer (if both Shining and TKN are village) and to look good for Bip, Wizard, and Aman.

Okay then. Fadran Archer.

Oh right. The Fadran issue.

If he's Village then we know there's an elim who scans Village, right? Like, it'd be crazy for there not to be?

@Channelknight Fadran did you Troll last night?

Edited February 11, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Araris Valerian he/him]

21 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Oh right. The Fadran issue.

If he's Village then we know there's an elim who scans Village, right? Like, it'd be crazy for there not to be?

Yeah, and presumably one that has only claimed one role, or has an unverified second role. I also think e!Steel makes v!Fadran more likely, though not certain. Nobody has claimed the RB on him. I guess e!Fadran means that no RB ever happened, which is possible. Aside from Fadran, is there some other instance of an e!roleblock occurring that we need to account for?

[Amanuensis he/him]

6 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Yeah, and presumably one that has only claimed one role, or has an unverified second role. I also think e!Steel makes v!Fadran more likely, though not certain. Nobody has claimed the RB on him. I guess e!Fadran means that no RB ever happened, which is possible. Aside from Fadran, is there some other instance of an e!roleblock occurring that we need to account for?

Fadran claimed to be RB’d when RandBy scanned Steel elim N4 going into D5.

That was also the night TJ “attempted” to RB Sart and I “attempted” to Troll Sart, which TJ believed could have been because Sart was the e!Roleblocker and OOA stuff happened

In that world, e!Fadran and V!Fadran makes sense, but idk?

The question again on my mind is why the elims RB’d me on N2 when it was publicly known Book would be scanning Orlok. We got a free village scan and that seems ?

Edited February 11, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Araris Valerian he/him]

11 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

My PoE rn is something like {Mat, JNV} or {Drake, Archer} tbh

So {Drake, Archer} only works if one of them is a Confirmed Villager, right? Not saying that’s too implausible, since knowing what Tie Guy does could let them throw off the numbers, but it does seem risky to deliberately place yourself in a pool of people that are going to be getting exed without a ton of feedback.

[Mat he/him]

12 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

- Surely his one-of-a-kind role-immunity role is elim sided

Doesn't Sart have the same role though? Cause you and TJ both failed to target him on the same night. That I think makes Archer's role village sided since I'd only buy the elims have one of those.

Also, am I the only one weirded out how we've got like at least two free scans in this game

Like what is happening

Are the elims just too inactive to follow along well enough to stop it? >> It's either that or they just didn't care that Steel got scanned. Which in a weird way almost makes me think he was honest about his Tie Guy results but that's a tinfoil theory for later  

[Amanuensis he/him]

6 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Doesn't Sart have the same role though? Cause you and TJ both failed to target him on the same night. That I think makes Archer's role village sided since I'd only buy the elims have one of those.

Also, am I the only one weirded out how we've got like at least two free scans in this game

Like what is happening

Are the elims just too inactive to follow along well enough to stop it? >> It's either that or they just didn't care that Steel got scanned. Which in a weird way almost makes me think he was honest about his Tie Guy results but that's a tinfoil theory for later  

TJ said his action on Archer didn’t return the same “attempted” result, so Sart would need to have a unique second role, not the same as Archer’s

In last nights case, I think it’s likely either Steel or Sart was the e!Roleblocker. And I don’t think we’ve ever seen evidence of an e!Troll, barring e!Walin or e!Fadran. Possible their only anti-scan measures were a Roleblock, Sart’s weird immunity, a potential!Confirmed Villager (if V!Fadran) and/or maybe Archer’s immunity

Edited February 11, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Archer he/him]

I can't really defend my role, besides noting that the fact I can't be cleared or PMed makes it balanced. I have wondered if e!Drake makes sense now in part because a village going against two kills per night needs some kind of Thug. 

I'd also like credit for being right about e!Steel, who I've suspected and been voting for for at least three cycles now. 

We're in the point and shoot phase of the game, so I understand voting me off. I'd prefer Drake though. Aman can kill too, but Drake is the more likely elim of the two and leads to an expedited endgame if he keeps killing. We're better off with a slow pace with the amount of decent trusts we have. I think Drake dying gives us an extra exe down the road and closes off the possibility of the elims shooting two green scans on Night (probably at the cost of e!Drake, but the damage would be done). 

Roleblocker TJ dying does help Drake's push towards the end here.