Long Game 92: Process of Elimination

[Ashbringer he/him]

Araris confirmed Bookwyrm's scan on Orlok was not Trolled. (Or was Trolled... it was a while ago, the point is it backed up that it was a Village scan). Then Bookwyrm scanned Araris, but no backup there and we don't know if E!Fadran or another Troll interfered. So V!Araris implies V!Orlok (assuming V!Bookwyrm), but idk if V!Orlok says too much about Araris. Araris doesn't usually go for 1-for-1 risks like that.

Sart also scanned Araris as Village, although I don't know whether that helps or hinders.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I guess I was misremembering Orlok as the person that had scanned me as village, but that was Bookwyrm. So never mind about that.

[Amanuensis he/him]

6 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I guess I was misremembering Orlok as the person that had scanned me as village, but that was Bookwyrm. So never mind about that.

Mhm. And the reason that scan is tough is because you were the only other player who could authenticate the scan’s accuracy (I selfishly tried to kill Bip but was Roleblocked anyway), allowing theoretical e!you to get away with a green check.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

This might be the longest time frame this game has gone without a new post. That’s kind of impressive.

Anyway, I think we should do either Archer or Mat for the exe.

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

2 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

This might be the longest time frame this game has gone without a new post. That’s kind of impressive.

Anyway, I think we should do either Archer or Mat for the exe.

Been busy but I have a theory about how the PM Spider scans work :eyes:

[Ashbringer he/him]

Drake, Archer

For now.

[Random Bystander she/her]

10 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Reads are useful. Who do you think is evil?

I have no scudding clue. Though, Archer is a pretty safe bet.

9 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

hail bystander, those who are about to die salute you

*bows* 

[Mat he/him]

25 minutes ago, Random Bystander said:

I have no scudding clue. Though, Archer is a pretty safe bet.

Everyone else seems to think so too. Which raises its own questions. For the sake of the argument (and my pet v!Archer read) I’m staying off the train for now.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

5 hours ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

Been busy but I have a theory about how the PM Spider scans work :eyes:

Out of curiosity, about how much did Kas and Fifth tell you about how PM Spiders work and how much did the PAFO? Asking bc my ability really isn't complicated so I don't really know how vague they are being about other ones

More specifically, were you able to get the list of possible facts you can learn from the scan up-front?

More specifically, in your educated opinion, do you think JNV would have gotten enough clarifications at that point in the game to know that faking an alignment scan on Matrim was actually a thing that made sense according to the PM spider rules?

 

Edit (because apparently y'all decided to finally have a relatively calm cycle):

Tbh, the problem with this cycle is that for every living player, there's at least some reason to say they seem village:

• Ashbringer: Killed Sart.
• Wizard: Reported village by Fae.
• JNV: Idk seems to be acting villagery?
• Matrim: Reported village by JNV.
• Biplet: Framed by Sart.
• Araris: Pushed Steel.
• Aman: Elim kill target.
• Archer: Pushed Steel.
• Drake: Totally trustworthy
• Fae: Giving a new player who rolled villager an SE Buddy makes sense from a meta perspective.

Keeping that in mind, not all of these reasons to village read people are equally strong.

I think, at this point, the most environmentally friendly low tinfoil occam-approved theory is that the elims pretty quickly decided to cut their losses and bus Steel after he got scanned as an elim, and the surviving eliminator team therefore consists of Archer and/or Araris. In which case, executing Archer today and then nonviolently seeking Araris tonight should quickly restore peace, freedom, justice, and security to the galaxy.

But that is probably much too convenient for it to be true tbh.

If we slightly increase the tinfoil rations, the [JNV -> Matrim] and [Fae -> Wizard] pairs stick out as pretty reasonable candidates for elimmery.

On a purely statistical level, Matrim and Wizard are each somewhat less likely than the average player to be evil, and JNV and Fae are each somewhat more likely than the average player. On a purely statistical level, going after JNV and/or Fae is probably what we actually should be doing this cycle, prioritizing it above Archer or Araris. However, I think we are actually smarter than the sacred numbers in this specific case so I am ignoring them I wonder if I'll regret it.

If you have a high credence that the elims have a Confirmed Villager, and that it wasn't Fadran or some other random dead player, I'd probably highlight Matrim as a suspect of interest as well. The way Matrim's been going after JNV feels like a potential match for the behavior I'd expect from an elim Confirmed Villager in the same situation. (That is to say, outside of Confirmed Villager, the most likely way for there to be a green scan on somebody and for it to be wrong is if the scanner and the scanned are E/E. That being the case, Matrim voting for JNV feels ever so slightly showy, like a way for Matrim to assert that he is village by demonstrating he isn't E/E with JNV, but I digress). I do not have a particularly strong elim read of Matrim at this moment, but it bears mentioning.

Making an SE Buddy targeted to an elim Confirmed Villager from the start of the game feels cruel even by the standards of our GMs, so I do think e!Wizard absolutely requires e!Fae, no two ways about it. The converse is not true.

There is also the possibility of either Ashbringer or Biplet being on a team with Sart, and that part of Sart's play was distancing from one or both of those two. I do not believe this is likely, as Sart's play did not seem quite as calculated as that, but it is possible.

Last but not least there is the possibility that Aman is a Confirmed Villager on the elim team, which if nothing else would be quite amusing.

This has been tinfoil analysis with Drake. While aluminium is not regarded as an essential nutrient to most biological life forms in the way that potassium, iron, and other minerals are, studies have shown that the average SE Player does in fact require a daily amount of tinfoil intake in order to survive, and I am therefore doing my part to stave off the effects of paranoia withdrawal. You are welcome.

Edited February 15, 2023 by DrakeMarshall
moar post

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I'll point out that everyone should look at Orlok's Tie Guy results and make some kind of decision about who the two elims were. That, combined with Steel's Tie Guy claim and the knowledge that Steel is elim, is the reason that I'm voting Archer.

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

5 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Out of curiosity, about how much did Kas and Fifth tell you about how PM Spiders work and how much did the PAFO? Asking bc my ability really isn't complicated so I don't really know how vague they are being about other ones

More specifically, were you able to get the list of possible facts you can learn from the scan up-front?

More specifically, in your educated opinion, do you think JNV would have gotten enough clarifications at that point in the game to know that faking an alignment scan on Matrim was actually a thing that made sense according to the PM spider rules?

I did ask if it was game related and listed off four possible scan things, which were. Who they targetted, who targetted them, what they used, and allignment scanning. Kas did say yes to the list and he PAFO'd exactly what the lie would be. And later I specifically asked about allignment scanning and Kas has confirmed it. Personally I think it works like mistborn rolling metals, you keep going until you've used them all and then you start all over again.

I've been feeling like going Mat lately.

[Mat he/him]

6 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

On a purely statistical level, going after JNV and/or Fae is probably what we actually should be doing this cycle, prioritizing it above Archer or Araris. However, I think we are actually smarter than the sacred numbers in this specific case so I am ignoring them I wonder if I'll regret it.

Hey, if this backfires it’s not on me, alright? xD Y’all should cmon over to the statistical side, we have a higher chance of winning…

#MathIsAnElimTell

6 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

If you have a high credence that the elims have a Confirmed Villager, and that it wasn't Fadran or some other random dead player, I'd probably highlight Matrim as a suspect of interest as well. The way Matrim's been going after JNV feels like a potential match for the behavior I'd expect from an elim Confirmed Villager in the same situation. (That is to say, outside of Confirmed Villager, the most likely way for there to be a green scan on somebody and for it to be wrong is if the scanner and the scanned are E/E. That being the case, Matrim voting for JNV feels ever so slightly showy, like a way for Matrim to assert that he is village by demonstrating he isn't E/E with JNV, but I digress). I do not have a particularly strong elim read of Matrim at this moment, but it bears mentioning.

I guess, what do you want me to do? You realize that voting JNV is a technical better choice and then sus me for it. In a way it is me showing I’m not e/e with JNV but it’s obviously not in the way you’re implying.

Wiz voting me feels like it supports a Wiz/Fae team trying to get the JNV/Mat mix out of the way.

We don’t need to paranoid. We’re at the stage where statistically we win, so statistically we should make smart exes ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

17 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Hey, if this backfires it’s not on me, alright? xD Y’all should cmon over to the statistical side, we have a higher chance of winning…

#MathIsAnElimTell

I guess, what do you want me to do? You realize that voting JNV is a technical better choice and then sus me for it. In a way it is me showing I’m not e/e with JNV but it’s obviously not in the way you’re implying.

Wiz voting me feels like it supports a Wiz/Fae team trying to get the JNV/Mat mix out of the way.

We don’t need to paranoid. We’re at the stage where statistically we win, so statistically we should make smart exes ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

And I feel similar about you voting Fae for just posting a naked vote.

However it's probably supported by the fact that we have PMs with each other XD.

Meaning you have one with JNV and I have one with Fae. And I'm paranoid about the scan on you and you having the confirmed village role.

[Tea Leaf]

23 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Fae

Ah thanks. Archer  Mat

Edited February 15, 2023 by The last Fae in the Woods

[Kasimir he/him]

Your completely organic votecount:

Quote

Archer (5): Amanuensis, Araris Valerian, Ashbringer, DrakeMarshall, JNV
Matrim's Dice (2): The last Fae in the Woods, The Wandering Wizard
The last Fae in the Woods (1): Matrim's Dice

 

[Mat he/him]

1 hour ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

And I feel similar about you voting Fae for just posting a naked vote.

However it's probably supported by the fact that we have PMs with each other XD.

Meaning you have one with JNV and I have one with Fae. And I'm paranoid about the scan on you and you having the confirmed village role.

It’s not just that, it’s doing it twice (and now three times)

Like, where do those votes come from? I smell an out of thread influence. OMGUS isn’t a good look here.

And again, why is paranoia the best route here? Does it not make more sense to vote logically and self cannibalize later, since we have the time?

Taking my own advice: JNV

It is concerning to me that I am the only one who seems to notice that no one minds Archer’s exe.

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

OMGUS

OFFICE OF MILITARY GOVERNMENT, UNITED STATES??

[StrikerEZ he/him]

15 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

And again, why is paranoia the best route here? Does it not make more sense to vote logically and self cannibalize later, since we have the time?

There’s something latently suspicious about this statement. Yes avoiding “paranoia” is a good thing. I don’t really have an opinion on if voting Archer is paranoia or not (it feels reasonable to me). However, we have now idea if we actually have the time to wait on the vote. For all we know, it could be 5-4 right now. And this could be Exlo. I do think that’s unlikely, but we have literally no idea how close we are to Exlo. And acting like we have a bunch of time seems like a quick way to lose a game.

[Mat he/him]

10 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

There’s something latently suspicious about this statement. Yes avoiding “paranoia” is a good thing. I don’t really have an opinion on if voting Archer is paranoia or not (it feels reasonable to me). However, we have now idea if we actually have the time to wait on the vote. For all we know, it could be 5-4 right now. And this could be Exlo. I do think that’s unlikely, but we have literally no idea how close we are to Exlo. And acting like we have a bunch of time seems like a quick way to lose a game.

• Bunch of scans, most of which (if not all of which) are accurate
• Less elims alive than the amount of scans (this is always true)
• Less non scanned than scanned (ish)

Therefore, killing the non scanned first indisputably kills most, if not all, remaining elims. Because there are more scanned village people than any other group, (alright, fine, technically the groups are equal but it’s not like anyone is really wondering about killed-Sart Ash and saved-Aman Drake, not yet) so the elims can’t kill them all fast enough and we shouldn’t help them. Of course, Archer isn’t scanned and therefore one hundred percent fits with this philosophy, but this is a separate deal from that and doesn’t look favorable on Wiz/Fae. 

I’m not saying we should disregard the scanned entirely. I just think it’s hasty to disregard those scans when most of them are probably accurate and the larger number of elims is likely in the other pool.

Edit: Oh yeah and omgus just means voting for someone solely because they voted for you, and isn’t a good look any day of the week.

Edited February 15, 2023 by Matrim's Dice

[StrikerEZ he/him]

4 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

• Bunch of scans, most of which (if not all of which) are accurate
• Less elims alive than the amount of scans (this is always true)
• Less non scanned than scanned (ish)

Therefore, killing the non scanned first indisputably kills most, if not all, remaining elims. Because there are more scanned village people than any other group, (alright, fine, technically the groups are equal but it’s not like anyone is really wondering about killed-Sart Ash and saved-Aman Drake, not yet) so the elims can’t kill them all fast enough and we shouldn’t help them. Of course, Archer isn’t scanned and therefore one hundred percent fits with this philosophy, but this is a separate deal from that and doesn’t look favorable on Wiz/Fae. 

I’m not saying we should disregard the scanned entirely. I just think it’s hasty to disregard those scans when most of them are probably accurate and the larger number of elims is likely in the other pool.

Edit: Oh yeah and omgus just means voting for someone solely because they voted for you, and isn’t a good look any day of the week.

That’s a fair point. I just think you believe in the validity of all the scans far more than I do. The only scan I am certain of is my own, and even then there’s a possibility of it being messed up if Confirmed Villager is a real role. And you have an interest in assuming most of the scans are right, considering JNV has claimed to have scanned you. Caveat there being you’re also voting on JNV, which complicates things. 

[Biplet she/her]

mmmm i haven't been keeping up with the game well enough to remember why Archer is up, sorry guys. Tho it's nice to see Drake gain some happy time village points, tho granted the prospect of him being elim and shooting tani right away always felt a little weird to me.

Uhhh lack of opposition to Archer train feels hmmm. At least, except from Mat lol. Maybe it's my fondness for all of our Shenanigans of Olde in previous games but I gotta say I kinda agree with him? Feels weird.

JNV still on my radar. Possible low-activity elim team would point to low activity thread count yeah? Am I making any sense? I'm going back to lesson planning now (do y'all know how hard it is to arrange Finlandia for middle school band??)

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

40 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

It’s not just that, it’s doing it twice (and now three times)

Like, where do those votes come from? I smell an out of thread influence. OMGUS isn’t a good look here.

And again, why is paranoia the best route here? Does it not make more sense to vote logically and self cannibalize later, since we have the time?

Taking my own advice: JNV

It is concerning to me that I am the only one who seems to notice that no one minds Archer’s exe.

My brain, my brain goes to odd places.

Yes, I will stop Paranoiding right now, but I haven't really had time to think on much. Mat

Your post read weirdly to me the first time and I latched onto it. It doesn't feel weird now.

I don't particularly mind an Archer exe.

13 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

• Bunch of scans, most of which (if not all of which) are accurate
• Less elims alive than the amount of scans (this is always true)
• Less non scanned than scanned (ish)

Therefore, killing the non scanned first indisputably kills most, if not all, remaining elims. Because there are more scanned village people than any other group, (alright, fine, technically the groups are equal but it’s not like anyone is really wondering about killed-Sart Ash and saved-Aman Drake, not yet) so the elims can’t kill them all fast enough and we shouldn’t help them. Of course, Archer isn’t scanned and therefore one hundred percent fits with this philosophy, but this is a separate deal from that and doesn’t look favorable on Wiz/Fae. 

I’m not saying we should disregard the scanned entirely. I just think it’s hasty to disregard those scans when most of them are probably accurate and the larger number of elims is likely in the other pool.

Edit: Oh yeah and omgus just means voting for someone solely because they voted for you, and isn’t a good look any day of the week.

I mean, Fae is a new players and a lot of newer players tend to do it.

Hmmm, I guess I could get behind a JNV exe.

[Mat he/him]

51 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

That’s a fair point. I just think you believe in the validity of all the scans far more than I do. The only scan I am certain of is my own, and even then there’s a possibility of it being messed up if Confirmed Villager is a real role. And you have an interest in assuming most of the scans are right, considering JNV has claimed to have scanned you. Caveat there being you’re also voting on JNV, which complicates things. 

Maybe I do, but I don’t think it’s possible for the elims to have messed with more than one, maybe two scans. That’s my working assumption, at least.

33 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

I mean, Fae is a new players and a lot of newer players tend to do it.

Either that or they try to overly justify things, it depends. But I guess you’re right. I just don’t like writing off elimmy behavior as new playerness in the endgame.

[JNV]

Hi I had a minute and just wanted to say the Archer vote is mostly Orloks tie thing and cause we cant Coinshot them like the reasons to vote me are valid but as far as Im concerned Drakes killing me in the night so yeah 

[Archer he/him]

Checked the Shard. Had twenty notifications. Freaked out. 

Luckily it was because of Devo, not this game. But I do apologize, I've been pretty lazy here because I figured I'm going to die eventually anyway so might as well take the easy out and let you guys wrap things up. 

Orlok showed 2 elims among Ashbringer, Drake, TUN, Mat, Shining, Steeldancer, TJ, and me. 

Steeldancer+Shining is bad because we're shooting in a pool that's already been cleared. 

Steeldancer+Ashbringer is easily refutable with an exe of Ashbringer today. E!Ashbringer clears me, Mat, TJ, Drake. V!Ashbringer means we confirm his role/alignment, and then have more cleared villagers aka meat shields while we wittle down the suspect pool. I call that a win-win. 

Otherwise, I'm generally opposed to shooting within that pool. It makes more sense to target Biplet or Araris to hedge against e!Shining. 

Can someone confirm there's a reason e!Fae didn't just claim the Wiz scan-role-thing for cred? 

I'll note that it's weird that the PM Spider scans have started becoming about past actions instead of present ones. Best guess is still the GMs got bored and wanted to add variety. 

Ashbringer