Long Game 92: Process of Elimination

[Tea Leaf]

9 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

We haven't seen any other SE Buddy roles

Maybe it was meant to cause this confusion?

[Mat he/him]

Just now, The last Fae in the Woods said:

Maybe it was meant to cause this confusion?

Like, maybe you claiming a role that doesn't exist was meant to cause our confusion on your and Wiz's alignments?

Or that Kas purposely only put in one of these relationships to make us think that it was an elim faking it? Because that's possible, but it's a weirdly specific defense for you to make on a point that wasn't super strong anyway.

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

25 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

And I do get e/e vibes off Wiz/Fae, I'm sorry. Wiz has been real quiet lately, when he was quite analytical in the earlier game. We haven't seen any other SE Buddy roles. Their votes don't sit well with me. But JNV first.

IRL life has been busy and I've been kind of not caring.

Though I do have to ask you this. Why don't I just point the kill somewhere other than Aman instead of helping coordinate it? Or even better lie about it to get Drake to shoot Aman and then just kill Drake? Really easy way to get the village to shoot itself in the foot.

[Mat he/him]

Just now, The Wandering Wizard said:

Though I do have to ask you this. Why don't I just point the kill somewhere other than Aman instead of helping coordinate it? Or even better lie about it to get Drake to shoot Aman and then just kill Drake? Really easy way to get the village to shoot itself in the foot.

Lying about it immediately gets you killed next Day turn when the dead-but-still-able-to-talk Aman and Drake explain what happened. You could have pointed it somewhere else, but in the case of e!you and e!Fae, you absolutely can't let either of you die, and you would have seen the increasing talk about you two being evil. If I had been elim in your position, I would have taken the chance to clear myself.

[Tea Leaf]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Like, maybe you claiming a role that doesn't exist was meant to cause our confusion on your and Wiz's alignments?

Or that Kas purposely only put in one of these relationships to make us think that it was an elim faking it? Because that's possible, but it's a weirdly specific defense for you to make on a point that wasn't super strong anyway.

I can't defend myself so I could be an elim, and I probably am, so... or the elim's mainly have it and are trying to get us to fight by not saying they have it.

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Lying about it immediately gets you killed next Day turn when the dead-but-still-able-to-talk Aman and Drake explain what happened. You could have pointed it somewhere else, but in the case of e!you and e!Fae, you absolutely can't let either of you die, and you would have seen the increasing talk about you two being evil. If I had been elim in your position, I would have taken the chance to clear myself.

Twice in a row though? Once would have been good enough for me, I would have targetted someone else the second time. Because you can burn a kill once, but doing it twice can really set you behind.

[Amanuensis he/him]

TBH the main reason I’m voting Mat is who or what he pushes. For example, the Fadran Confirmed Villager claim being an e!plot to make us doubt scans. If I believe in v!Fadran, which I do, that objectively looks like elim motivated FUD.

[Mat he/him]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

TBH the main reason I’m voting Mat is who or what he pushes. For example, the Fadran Confirmed Villager claim being an e!plot to make us doubt scans. If I believe in v!Fadran, which I do, that objectively looks like elim motivated FUD.

You can't base my actions on your reads, because my actions are based on my reads. I don't believe that everyone we've killed so far is village, whereas you basically still do. I totally think it's possible Fadran was evil-- it would explain a lot, really-- which I think adds to the Araris train, and the only reason I'm not voting there is because I'm adverse to voting the scanned before the non-scanned. It might look like e!motivated FUD from your perspective but you weren't the one who had that perspective-- I did. And I read it as potential e!Fadran.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Yeah but I voted Walin like really early on, before Orlok's reveal and before Steel had any votes. So it wasn't a conscious choice to pick Walin over Steel. I would have picked Walin over Steel, but I think your point was about the timing more than anything else so my likely bad reads shouldn't play a huge factor. Confirmed wrong =/= confirmed evil, yeah?  

I suspected Walin because his posts were focused specifically on making himself look better, and he was trying to hide it. There was a decent amount of gut in the read, but it stemmed off of bad feelings in that regard. I don't remember exactly, it was awhile ago, so there was probably something else too.

(I wrote this response last night, and apparently forgot to post it, sorry >>)

Is the Araris theory that Bookwyrm was trolled, I guess? Which works with e!Fadran and him not submitting an action on Randby's scan? Or something else. Trying to figure out the logistics of this since I like it less than JNV just because Araris is in our confirmed list. How paranoid is this read, I haven't been paying enough attention.

And I do get e/e vibes off Wiz/Fae, I'm sorry. Wiz has been real quiet lately, when he was quite analytical in the earlier game. We haven't seen any other SE Buddy roles. Their votes don't sit well with me. But JNV first.

Okay but whether you chose Walin and then decided to stick with that choice later or there was a vote between Walin and Steel and you picked Walin it's mostly the same. Yeah confirmed wrong != confirmed evil, but when you're looking at votes where an elim got put in danger, you have to agree that people voting in favor of the elim are more suspicious in that case

The Araris theory is that Bookwyrm was trolled, yes. For basically every other scan, we have some reason to believe that trolling is unlikely, either because the scan was done D1 and the scanner hadn't claimed, or because we had somebody trolling the scanner, or because Araris himself was checking to see if the scanner had been trolled. For this specific scan, there was no safeguards against trolling, and AFAIK the elims had reason to be aware that Bookwyrm was doing a scan and that there wouldn't be effective anti-troll measures in place.

Incidentally, I also do not think the elim troll is still alive, if one ever existed. If an elim troll is currently alive and even slightly active, I cannot imagine that they wouldn't troll Aman. This simple maneuver would have destroyed us both of the last two nights, and it didn't happen.

So either the elims never had a troll (which would mean v!Araris) or, more likely imo, the elims did have a troll and we killed them. The question at this point is when we killed them. Was it Fadran? Was it Steel or Sart? Was it actually Tani and the elims have been flying without a troll the whole time (again this implies v!Araris)?

My estimation says that the cases that would point to v!Araris are less likely (I mostly believe Tani's roleclaim and I think the elims would be given a troll), so I do think e!Araris is pretty possible.

This is an aspect of analysis I could try to tell the sacred numbers about. Maybe it will help.

2 hours ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

IRL life has been busy and I've been kind of not caring.

Though I do have to ask you this. Why don't I just point the kill somewhere other than Aman instead of helping coordinate it? Or even better lie about it to get Drake to shoot Aman and then just kill Drake? Really easy way to get the village to shoot itself in the foot.

Wizard you literally pointed out to me like three turns ago that you couldn't do this because if you lied and got me and/or Aman killed you would be up for the vote pronto So don't use it as a defense in the thread please it's not entirely being honest

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Lying about it immediately gets you killed next Day turn when the dead-but-still-able-to-talk Aman and Drake explain what happened. You could have pointed it somewhere else, but in the case of e!you and e!Fae, you absolutely can't let either of you die, and you would have seen the increasing talk about you two being evil. If I had been elim in your position, I would have taken the chance to clear myself.

Yep this.

Although I do find it unlikely that e!Wizard would feel the need to stage two blocked kills in a row. I feel like e!Wizard could probably just do it once and then kill me the next night and still be fairly trusted.

Mind you, if Wizard is the last surviving elim or something, then I could see this being a sound tactic. Because in that case getting trusted so that you don't die is honestly much more important than two nights worth of kills. If you're a lone eliminator then you have to be very firmly in the trusted category to stand a chance since you are extremely vulnerable to PoE otherwise.

But Wizard also actually can't be a lone elim, e!Wizard requires e!Fae.

28 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

TBH the main reason I’m voting Mat is who or what he pushes. For example, the Fadran Confirmed Villager claim being an e!plot to make us doubt scans. If I believe in v!Fadran, which I do, that objectively looks like elim motivated FUD.

What is an elim motivated FUD?

Is this an elim motivated FUD?

Spoiler

23 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

You can't base my actions on your reads, because my actions are based on my reads. I don't believe that everyone we've killed so far is village, whereas you basically still do. I totally think it's possible Fadran was evil-- it would explain a lot, really-- which I think adds to the Araris train, and the only reason I'm not voting there is because I'm adverse to voting the scanned before the non-scanned. It might look like e!motivated FUD from your perspective but you weren't the one who had that perspective-- I did. And I read it as potential e!Fadran.

Let's be fair, Aman does believe we've killed some elims AFAIK. I am pretty sure Aman has accepted that Tani, Steel, and Sart were probably all elims(?). Perhaps reluctantly at times, but still

As for Fadran I agree Fadran might have been evil, although personally I rate it at like a 1 in 3 chance.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Fae.

[Mat he/him]

17 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Okay but whether you chose Walin and then decided to stick with that choice later or there was a vote between Walin and Steel and you picked Walin it's mostly the same.

I mean, by the time I could have chosen Steel, Orlok had claimed, so I actually couldn’t have. But I suppose you’re right that I would have chosen Walin anyway, I admitted to that myself  

[Ashbringer he/him]

Hmm. @Channelknight Fadran, I know you're Removed and all, but can you clarify how Confirmed Villager works? The initial description seemed to say it just made Scans show up as Village always, but Tie Guy and Lynchbait aren't exactly Scans.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

In a baseline sense, JNV and Fae are both equally suspicious. Maybe JNV is slightly more so if you think JNV and Matrim are E/E, but otherwise JNV and Fae are on equal footing.

The sacred numbers say so in no uncertain terms, and the sacred numbers are always right!

Also a lot of more active players have more reasons they look at least somewhat village.

So why is it always JNV who gets voted and not Fae?

 

I looked through some of JNV's past games to validate whether it made sense to village read them.

Tonally, JNV in this game feels like a much closer match to MR61 (village!JNV) than LG89 (elim!JNV).

Now, people change their tones due to things other than alignment. So take that with a grain of salt.

But I do think this looks more like v!JNV than e!JNV, for what that's worth.

As an aside, I wish v!JNV would vote more often since I see that as being important to the village, but I aint gonna tell people how to play the game The point is to enjoy yourself after all. ...It just makes reading JNV harder in cases like these

 

On the other hand we have Fae.

Fae has been active on the shard but only shows up in the thread to respond quickly when somebody talks about killing them, which if anything feels like maybe a docmate prompted Fae to go defend themselves.

Fae has claimed a role but has generally not accounted for their actions as far as I can tell. This is pretty similar to what Steel was doing.

Fae has not really given reads AFAIK, and voted JNV seemingly out of nowhere in a way that mainly comes across as an act of self-preservation. While self-preservation is valid, it is not a great look to be more concerned with self-preservation than with solving the game for the village. Villagers are concerned with self-preservation but the difference is that for elims it's the top priority or close to it, and for villagers it almost always is not.

Fae is new to this, and I do think Fae deserves some benefit of the doubt. I think it is generally good to give people the benefit of the doubt about forgetting about things like submitting actions. And it's very easy to enter SE and do something that players will see as suspicious just because you don't know what they will see as suspicious. But at the same time, that only goes so far, and so long. It's day 8 and Fae still looks like an elim by many conventional standards. At this point, I can either vote for somebody else who I at least have some reasons to think is village, or I can vote for Fae. So I'm voting for Fae.

Edited February 17, 2023 by DrakeMarshall

[Amanuensis he/him]

2 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

In a baseline sense, JNV and Fae are both equally suspicious. Maybe JNV is slightly more so if you think JNV and Matrim are E/E, but otherwise JNV and Fae are on equal footing.

The sacred numbers say so in no uncertain terms, and the sacred numbers are always right!

Also a lot of more active players have more reasons they look at least somewhat village.

So why is it always JNV who gets voted and not Fae?

 

I looked through some of JNV's past games to validate whether it made sense to village read them.

Tonally, JNV in this game feels like a much closer match to MR61 (village!JNV) than LG89 (elim!JNV).

Now, people change their tones due to things other than alignment. So take that with a grain of salt.

But I do think this looks more like v!JNV than e!JNV, for what that's worth.

As an aside, I wish v!JNV would vote more often since I see that as being important to the village, but I aint gonna tell people how to play the game

 

On the other hand we have Fae.

Fae has been active on the shard but only shows up in the thread to respond quickly when somebody talks about killing them, which if anything feels like maybe a docmate prompted Fae to go defend themselves.

Fae has claimed a role but has generally not accounted for their actions as far as I can tell. This is pretty similar to what Steel was doing.

Fae has not really given reads AFAIK, and voted JNV seemingly out of nowhere in a way that mainly comes across as an act of self-preservation. While self-preservation is valid, it is not a great look to be more concerned with self-preservation than with solving the game for the village. Villagers are concerned with self-preservation but the difference is that for elims it's the top priority or close to it, and for villagers it almost always is not.

Fae is new to this, and I do think Fae deserves some benefit of the doubt. I think it is generally good to give people the benefit of the doubt about forgetting about things like submitting actions. And it's very easy to enter SE and do something that players will see as suspicious just because you don't know what they will see as suspicious. But at the same time, that only goes so far, and so long. It's day 8 and Fae still looks like an elim by many conventional standards. At this point, I can either vote for somebody else who I at least have some reasons to think is village, or I can vote for Fae. So I'm voting for Fae.

I might be convinced.

[JNV]

11 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

As an aside, I wish v!JNV would vote more often since I see that as being important to the village, but I aint gonna tell people how to play the game The point is to enjoy yourself after all. ...It just makes reading JNV harder in cases like these

Listen I also wish I would vote more the problem is all my suspicions are founded in tonality and connections and Ive been trying to move away from the sort of 'you feel weird so youre evil' mentality cause Im usually wrong the problem with that is I havent exactly found anything to replace it with also t he early days had lots of words the later days were prefunctory so yeah

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

12 minutes ago, JNV said:

Listen I also wish I would vote more the problem is all my suspicions are founded in tonality and connections and Ive been trying to move away from the sort of 'you feel weird so youre evil' mentality cause Im usually wrong the problem with that is I havent exactly found anything to replace it with also t he early days had lots of words the later days were prefunctory so yeah

Fair

Tbh I don't have and never have had any kind of unified theory of "how I do analysis" so don't feel bad if you don't have one either

I do appreciate it when people make an effort to vote even when they don't feel like they have a strong suspicions. Because tbh most of the time the only people that know who they want to vote for are the elims (edit: well, maybe not even then. it can be really hard to come up with a train you think you can justify as an elim, since you know all of the trains you would vote on aren't actually justified. so sometimes truly nobody knows who to vote for). Not knowing what's going on is a villager's lot in life, especially in this kayana game and even incorrect opinions are still things that others can engage with and form reads from

but don't mind me I'm more just complaining about the aforementioned not knowing what's going on than I am intentionally making any kind of meta commentary

I still don't really know if you're village or not >> and the sacred numbers are convinced that you're sus

But I found it weird that everyone was seemingly tacitly agreeing to vote on you and not Fae when you are in similar boats as having scanned one other player and not being cleared yourselves I mean that's a bit weird right?

Edited February 17, 2023 by DrakeMarshall

[JNV]

7 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

But I found it weird that everyone was seemingly tacitly agreeing to vote on you and not Fae when you are in similar boats as having scanned one other player and not being cleared yourselves I mean that's a bit weird right?

I think its a mix of giving the new player some slack and Faes general disconnectedness plus you have been promising to kill me for the past two nights now I think everyone me included is kind of primed to want to kill me

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

3 minutes ago, JNV said:

I think its a mix of giving the new player some slack and Faes general disconnectedness plus you have been promising to kill me for the past two nights now I think everyone me included is kind of primed to want to kill me

I guess they forgot I was a pacifist

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

1 hour ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Wizard you literally pointed out to me like three turns ago that you couldn't do this because if you lied and got me and/or Aman killed you would be up for the vote pronto So don't use it as a defense in the thread please it's not entirely being honest

Yeah I realized that after I posted

Still probably would have killed someone else the second night tbh. I'll look over Fae, I've had a blind spot for them and that needs to be rectified.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Vote Tally (According to Tallybot)
JNV (3): Araris Valerian, Matrim's Dice, The last Fae in the Woods
Araris Valerian (1): The Wandering Wizard
The last Fae in the Woods (1): DrakeMarshall
Matrim's Dice (1): Chop liver

Edited February 18, 2023 by DrakeMarshall
UPDATED VOTE TALLY COMPLETELY ACCURATE

[Amanuensis he/him]

24 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Vote Tally (According to Tallybot)
JNV (3): Araris Valerian, Matrim's Dice, The last Fae in the Woods
Araris Valerian (1): The Wandering Wizard
The last Fae in the Woods (1): DrakeMarshall

What am I? Chop liver?

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

18 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

What am I? Chop liver?

Tallybot works in mysterious ways

edit: I have fixed this particular error in the tally bot

Edited February 18, 2023 by DrakeMarshall

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

33 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

What am I? Chop liver?

Yes, apparently you are

Araris Fae he still hasn't answered my question.

[Kasimir he/him]

Current organic votecount:

Quote

JNV (3): Fae, Araris, Mat
Fae (2): Wiz, Drake
Mat (1): Chop Liver

 

[Amanuensis he/him]

Kind of incredible how even games where dead players can still talk grow quiet in the later cycles