DrakeMarshall he/him Posted February 22, 2023 Report Share Posted February 22, 2023 4 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said: Is there anything I can do to persuade you to not kill me? xD i accept gift cards (this is a joke) have some memes: this one was from LG88 but I think it works here: Spoiler 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashbringer he/him Posted February 22, 2023 Report Share Posted February 22, 2023 The one I've been looking for the actual template for: Spoiler 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis he/him Posted February 22, 2023 Report Share Posted February 22, 2023 (edited) RIP UPS + Striker's Only Vote Edited February 22, 2023 by Amanuensis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wandering Wizard he/him Posted February 22, 2023 Report Share Posted February 22, 2023 I feel like we all have to be banned before the game can truly continue >> 9 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said: Dang the game isn’t over Sucks to be me Have fun in D10 I’ll be around to help, but. Is there anything I can do to persuade you to not kill me? xD Maybe Drake should look at his sacred numbers again. I wanna use my TC Many emojis! Mat is evil! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis he/him Posted February 22, 2023 Report Share Posted February 22, 2023 (edited) 10 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said: Dang the game isn’t over Sucks to be me Have fun in D10 I’ll be around to help, but. Is there anything I can do to persuade you to not kill me? xD Maybe Drake should look at his sacred numbers again. I wanna use my TC I could protect you from Drake's kill theoretically. Means we go into D10 with 4 players instead of 3. If elims kill Drake tonight, that means N10 will have 3 and 1 NK, bringing us to a 1 v 1 D11. The team that has the most removed player votes left wins the exe, probably. If the elims kill me tonight, that means N10 will have 3 and 2 kills, determining the game. This of course probably means v!loss if e!Drake tho. Otherwise we go into D10 with 3. If Drake lives and he's village then the game will be a draw. If Drake lives and he's elim then I blame everyone who fought against my Beaglegate Conspiracy. If Drake dies and we somehow exe wrong D10, elims win. So yeah, lemme know what y'all are feeling Edited February 22, 2023 by Amanuensis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrikerEZ he/him Posted February 22, 2023 Report Share Posted February 22, 2023 4 hours ago, Ashbringer said: The one I've been looking for the actual template for: Hide contents So true. Also, @Amanuensis, I meant to get on and remove my vote last minute, just in case I’d need it later. Unfortunately, I did not account for having to do a 13 hour work day yesterday and only got home by the time rollover was happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat he/him Posted February 22, 2023 Report Share Posted February 22, 2023 Aman— obviously I prefer that idea, but if democracy rules me dead tonight, so be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wandering Wizard he/him Posted February 22, 2023 Report Share Posted February 22, 2023 8 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: Otherwise we go into D10 with 3. If Drake lives and he's village then the game will be a draw. If Drake lives and he's elim than I blame everyone who fought against my Beaglegate Conspiracy. If Drake dies and we somehow exe wrong D10, elims win. Hmm to run some numbers Scenario One: Drake and the elims always succesfully kill Spoiler N9: 5 - 2 = 3 D10: 3 - 1 = 2 N10: 2 loss if Drake isn't village or Drake is dead If we don't exe all the elims by D10 we lose Scenario Two a: Drake's kill is blocked/Elim kill is blocked on Night 9 only Spoiler N9: 5 - 1 = 4 D10: 4 - 1 = 3 N10: 3 - 2 = 1 We lose if Drake is evil Scenario Two b: Drake's kill is blocked/Elim kill is blocked Spoiler N9: 5 - 1 = 4 D10: 4 - 1 = 3 N10: 3 - 1 = 2 D11: 2 - 1 = 1 Which everside has more votes left wins. But this only works if Drake isn't evil Scenario Three: At least one kill is blocked every night Spoiler N9: 5 - 1 = 4 D10: 4 - 1 = 3 N10: 3 - 1 = 2 D11: 2 - 1 = 1 Which ever side has the most votes Hmm having a kill is actually slightly worse for us. Very interesting! But I'd recommend that all dead players save their votes but they are your votes. Do with them what you will. Or you know, come help our self cannibalizing along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis he/him Posted February 22, 2023 Report Share Posted February 22, 2023 So JNV red-scanned Biplet and Drake killed Biplet. Then yesterday Biplet used her remaining vote on JNV. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir he/him Posted February 22, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: So JNV red-scanned Biplet and Drake killed Biplet. Then yesterday Biplet used her remaining vote on JNV. Thoughts? I think I am very confused and don't know what to make of this and also don't want to backread :/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis he/him Posted February 22, 2023 Report Share Posted February 22, 2023 (edited) 1 minute ago, Kasimir said: I think I am very confused and don't know what to make of this and also don't want to backread :/ I hate backreading too =\ think you can make a bot that analyzes posts and returns suspicions for us? Edited February 22, 2023 by Amanuensis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir he/him Posted February 22, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, Amanuensis said: I hate backreading too =\ think you can make a bot that analyzes posts and returns suspicions for us? Suspicions probably not. Depends I guess. I think Stick and Drake and I have been talking about some possibilities there but it'd be very crude and not enough data to get robust results. Fetching posts/ISO bot is on my list of projects but we gotta fix Tallybot first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis he/him Posted February 22, 2023 Report Share Posted February 22, 2023 I am so, so, so dumb. The most important clue was right in front of us this whole time. DrakeMarshall. You don't have a TallyBot. You are one! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wandering Wizard he/him Posted February 22, 2023 Report Share Posted February 22, 2023 8 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: So JNV red-scanned Biplet and Drake killed Biplet. Then yesterday Biplet used her remaining vote on JNV. Thoughts? Either Biplet is indeed evil or Drake and JNV are teamed together. That is what I am pulling from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archer he/him Posted February 22, 2023 Report Share Posted February 22, 2023 25 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said: having a kill is actually slightly worse for us. Very interesting! But I'd recommend that all dead players save their votes but they are your votes. Do with them what you will. Or you know, come help our self cannibalizing along Having had this discussion previously, the challenge you run up against is v!Drake knows e!Drake isn't an issue, and e!Drake wants more death, so both will submit kills Also, the number of times I've accidentally clicked on the MR thread and gotten confused is getting ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir he/him Posted February 22, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Archer said: Also, the number of times I've accidentally clicked on the MR thread and gotten confused is getting ridiculous As Stick and I were both saying in Dead-Spec, we have been bloody terrified of posting in the wrong thread and also just not segmenting very carefully our knowledge of things going on beneath the surface in this investigation >> Pretty sure Fifth feels that way, or will if he shows up in Dead-Spec this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wandering Wizard he/him Posted February 22, 2023 Report Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, Archer said: Having had this discussion previously, the challenge you run up against is v!Drake knows e!Drake isn't an issue, and e!Drake wants more death, so both will submit kills Also, the number of times I've accidentally clicked on the MR thread and gotten confused is getting ridiculous Thus the Beaglegate right? I don't have that problem....yet It's the problem with any Village kill, either you kill them to assuage your suspicion or you let them live and trust them not to stab you in the back. Which is what they are certified to do. Just now, Kasimir said: As Stick and I were both saying in Dead-Spec, we have been bloody terrified of posting in the wrong thread and also just not segmenting very carefully our knowledge of things going on beneath the surface in this investigation >> Pretty sure Fifth feels that way, or will if he shows up in Dead-Spec this time. MR61/LG91 yeah? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir he/him Posted February 22, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2023 (edited) 3 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said: MR61/LG91 yeah? Exacerbated I think since basically the entire population of this game is either Alive or DeadAlive and so info hygiene is actually a problem. Edited February 22, 2023 by Kasimir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted February 22, 2023 Report Share Posted February 22, 2023 (edited) 4 hours ago, Kasimir said: Suspicions probably not. Depends I guess. I think Stick and Drake and I have been talking about some possibilities there but it'd be very crude and not enough data to get robust results. Fetching posts/ISO bot is on my list of projects but we gotta fix Tallybot first. I have some basic things but they don’t do analysis for you, it’s more like they do the busy work parts like fetching the number of times player A has voted for or mentioned player B. I think there is an example of that sort of thing in the Jedi doc where I made some pretty graphs, and subsequently concluded that they contained no useful information and were a waste of time Also, the ***sacred numberThis post has been reported for attempting to skirt the rules (praise be) are just fuzzy logic probabilistic reasoning on everyone’s claims in this game, which again is not even slightly a bot that does analysis for you, but it does seem to have interesting potential as an aid to human analysis. In really complicated games like this one actually doing the math can help keep a sense of perspective. I unfortunately proceeded to ignore what the math told me for like 3 cycles in a row which was a mistake Finally, I did at one point write a bot to fully play Werewolf, but only against other bots. Against humans I’m pretty sure all of the bots would come across as fairly stupid and unsophisticated. My bot was absurdly good at analyzing other bots though!! But really quite bad at convincing other bots to vote with it. 4 hours ago, Amanuensis said: I am so, so, so dumb. The most important clue was right in front of us this whole time. DrakeMarshall. You don't have a TallyBot. You are one! How dare you impugn my laziness sir i would never do all that work by hand as always your vote for who the coinshot should target tonight has been noted and will be considered carefully as part of my decision-making process edit: i just realized this entire game is just an elaborate meme about turing tests Edited February 22, 2023 by DrakeMarshall 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashbringer he/him Posted February 22, 2023 Report Share Posted February 22, 2023 ... I'll just say I'd probably E-read Drake if he doesn't shoot Mat tonight. Although I think E-Drake would still do that. Idk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat he/him Posted February 22, 2023 Report Share Posted February 22, 2023 Tbh if Drake doesn't shoot me I'm almost certain that means v!Drake There's literally no reason for e!Drake not to shoot me here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashbringer he/him Posted February 22, 2023 Report Share Posted February 22, 2023 (edited) Who does v!Drake shoot here, though? Aman? Wiz? The Elims should be gunning for those two. Can't shoot Araris. Hold a shot? Does that help us? Just leads us to a 3 person N10, then what do you do? e!Drake wins that 100%, v!Drake either 50/50s whoever's left (or loses to e!Araris) or holds a shot and we all scramble on D11. Maybe holding a shot is a play (edit: or testing Araris's role, but does it matter?), but if we'd all just exe Mat next turn anyway then there's not much point. Edited February 22, 2023 by Ashbringer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat he/him Posted February 22, 2023 Report Share Posted February 22, 2023 (edited) If I had a shot, I'd put it on Araris. There's always the chance he dies and the game ends, no? Or I guess that'd introduce weirdness with Wiz's scan. Chances that Wiz was trolled? Would probably require e!Troll!Bip or something like that but Bip/Araris e/e has been a theory floating around. I guess if Araris just dies but we still get a Day cycle we can exe Wiz. Holding a shot lets me use my TC ability. That way I can force a not-GM exe. Dunno how much of a worry that is though. There's also the play where we exe Drake as a precaution if he's still alive tomorrow but I don't really like that idea :P. Edited February 22, 2023 by Matrim's Dice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashbringer he/him Posted February 22, 2023 Report Share Posted February 22, 2023 Hmmm. We could maybe have Aman/Drake/Wiz do a coinflip between Aman guarding Wiz and Drake shooting Mat/Araris/holding, or doing the unKill Aman trick again. That might force the elims to kill Drake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted February 22, 2023 Report Share Posted February 22, 2023 actually, you know what i refuse to keep taking crem about how JNV took so long to die what was I doing with my action over the last 3 nights? well 2/3 of them were protecting Aman and i do think blocking the elim kill is useful dont you >:P and if you think i am responsible for the lynch well then i think you are completely kayana >:P i mean did i vote for JNV no but neither did most of you gosh darn it except Matrim and I'm like 95% Matrim is an elim and therefore doesn't count >:P so no i refuse to be guilted over this any further i wash my hands of the matter i am a tactical genius who has made no mistakes whatsoever and i will not hear a word of naysaying about this extremely obvious fact it is very easy not to hear a word of naysaying in a written medium, because unless i intentionally read your posts out loud i will not in fact hear them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts