Long Game 92: Process of Elimination

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

3 minutes ago, Biplet said:

sorry

the sacred numbers said it was you or JNV and while I know JNV not dying is becoming a meme I still don't particularly elim read JNV

that said, seeing as the game is still happening, I will either vote JNV or Araris today, probably

pending what our PM spiders have dug up

speaking of which Bip would you happen to know if Wizard was trolled?

you may have noticed I don't entirely trust you and would therefore prefer to know what you found before we all find out what Wizard's result was

Just now, JNV said:

My scan came back with evil Biplet so good job Drake

Oh sick

I'm still sorry for killing you Bip but it sounds like maybe it was the right move

I still need to think about whether I believe this claim tho bc I don't trust JNV entirely but tentatively this sounds like splendid news

[Ashbringer he/him]

ALIGNMENTS:

Spoiler

• Aman - Village - From Striker Lynchbait Scan, Sart N1 Scan*
• Striker - Village - From Bookwyrm N1 Scan
• Wizard - Village - From Fae 'SE Buddy' role
• Orlok - Village - From Bookwyrm N2 Scan, backed up by Araris antitroll.
• Mat - Village - From UPS N2 Scan
• Araris - Village - From Bookwyrm N3 Scan, Sart N2 Scan*
• Biplet Elim - From Sart N3 Scan*
• Steel - Elim - From RandBy N4 Scan, Orlok N5 Scan
• Biplet - Elim - JNV N8 Scan
• Tani - Elim - Claimed
• Shining - Okay fine claim redacted
• 2 Elims in pool of Mat/Drake/Ash/Shining/TJ/Archer/Steel/TKN - from Orlok Tie Guy
• 2 Elims in pool of Mat/Drake/Ash/Shining/Biplet/Wizard/Amanuensis/Orlok - from Steel Tie Guy*

* Sart and Steel are relatively likely Elims.

ROLES:

Spoiler

• Ashbringer - Thread Master (Immune to Execution), Veteran (Removes one vote from self) 
  • (Status - Role 1 Proven, Role 2 Proven)
• Wizard - PM Spider (Creates a 1-on-1 PM on Odd Nights and learns a fact about a target on Even Nights (incorrect fact if Trolled) ) 
  • (Status - Role 1 Proven, Role 2 Unknown)
• Steeldancer - Pinch Hitter (Copy the Role of a Removed/DDoSed player (does something interesting if Trolled) ) 
  • (Status - Role 1 Proven, Role 2 Unknown)
• Fadran - Troll (may Troll players, gives a random player Troll Immunity next cycle if Trolled), Confirmed Villager (Always scans as Village) (Seems concerned about someone who's trying to incite a civil war, thus providing the necessary blood sacrifice to complete the nationwide transmutation circle in order to create a sufficiently powerful philosopher's stone and attain God)
  • (Status - Role 1 Proven via Troll Immunity generation, Role 2 Unproven)
• Striker - Lynchbait (Will place an Extra Vote on a random player who both had a vote on the Lynchbait at the 24 hour mark of the previous Day turn and is of the same alignment), Stab Voter (If your first vote is placed in the first 24 hours of a Day turn and does not change, it counts as double)
  • (Status - Role 1 Proven, Role 2 Unproven, Dead)
• xino - Multiquoter (Learn target's target (learn who targeted the target if Trolled) )
  • (Status - Role 1 Unproven, Role 2 Unknown)
• JNV - UPS Driver / PM Spider (Creates a 1-on-1 PM on Odd Nights and learns a fact about a target on Even Nights (incorrect fact if Trolled) ) 
  • (Status - Role 1 Proven, Role 2 Unknown)
• Matrim's Dice - Tunnel Constructor (Force execution to either kill you or a target player, if triggered before Rollovet) 
  • (Status - Role 1 Unproven, Role 2 Unknown)
• Biplet - Meme Maker (Can see if a target gets Trolled (false info if Trolled) ) 
  • (Status - Role 1 Proven as Bip knew the role name, Role 2 Unknown)
• Araris - Meme Maker (Can see if a target gets Trolled (false info if Trolled) ), Porch-Sitter (Added vote to self if voted on but immune to NKs) 
  • (Status - Role 1 Proven, Role 2 Proven to exist but NK immunity unproven)
• Devotary - RPer (May copy one of target player's roles to use the next turn (temporarily grants the RPer role to the Troll (or the target?) if Trolled) )
  • (Status - Role 1 Proven, Role 2 Unknown)
• Amanuensis - Goalkeeper (Protect target other player (turned to a Kill if Trolled) ), Troll (may Troll players, gives a random player Troll Immunity next cycle if Trolled... I think) 
  • (Status - Role 1 Proven via initial claims, Role 2 Proven)
• TKN - Goalkeeper (Protect target other player (turned to a Kill if Trolled) )
• The Bookwyrm - Analyst (Alignment Scan someone you voted for or who voted on you last turn (incorrect alignment if Trolled)
  • (Status - Role 1 Proven via RandBy, Role 2 Unknown)
• Tani - RPer (May copy one of target player's roles to use the next turn (temporarily grants the RPer role to the Troll (or the target?) if Trolled) )
  • (Status - Role 1 Unproven, Role 2 Unknown)
• Archer - PM Spider (Creates a 1-on-1 PM on Odd Nights and learns a fact about a target on Even Nights (incorrect fact if Trolled) ), Rules Ignorer (Ignores most Night Actions) 
  • (Status - Role 1 Proven, Role 2 Unproven even if it would explain a good amount)
• Walin - Troll (may Troll players, gives a random player Troll Immunity next cycle if Trolled... I think)
  • (Status - Role 1 Proven via Troll Immunity, Role 2 Unknown)
• TJ - Wallposter (Roleblock target player (Makes target immune to non-Troll Disruption if Trolled) ), Veteran (Removes one vote from self)
  • (Status - Role 1 PseudoProven, Role 2 PseudoProven but can confirm via a vote)
• Dannnnnex - Tie Guy (Learn alignments of players involved in a tie (need specifics, ??? If Trolled)
  • (Status - Role 1 Proven via Orlok and Steel, Role 2 Unknown)
• _Stick_/Drake - Terminal Seeker (NK a target (protects the target if Trolled) ) 
  • (Status - Role 1 Proven, Role 2 Unknown)
• Orlok - Pinch Hitter (Copy the Role of a Removed/DDoSed player (does something interesting if Trolled) ) 
  • (Status - Role 1 Proven, Role 2 Unknown)
• RandBy - RPer (May copy one of target player's roles to use the next turn (temporarily grants the RPer role to the Troll (or the target?) if Trolled) ), Tunnel Constructor (Force execution to either kill you or a target player, if triggered before Rollovet) 
  • (Status - Role 1 Proven via initial claim, Role 2 Unproven)
• Sart - Analyst (Alignment Scan someone you voted for or who voted on you last turn (incorrect alignment if Trolled), potentially a role similar to Archer's
• Shining - Discussion Leader (Move a vote) 
  • (Status - Role 1 Proven, Role 2 Unknown)
• Fae - PM Spider (Creates a 1-on-1 PM on Odd Nights and learns a fact about a target on Even Nights (incorrect fact if Trolled) ), SE Buddy (Automatically know one Villager is Village at game start) 
  • (Status - Role 1 Proven, Role 2 Unproven)

We're missing an Elim Roleblocker.

VOTE COUNTS:

Spoiler

D1:

StrikerEZ (6): Araris Valerian, Ashbringer, Devotary of Spontaneity, Shining Silhouette, Stick, The Bookwyrm
The Bookwyrm (3): StrikerEZ, The Wandering Wizard, xinoehp512
Walin (3): Channelknight Fadran, Matrim's Dice, Archer
Amanuensis (2): Sart, Steeldancer
Shining Silhouette (2): Amanuensis, TJ
Channelknight Fadran (1): The Known Novel
Stick (1): Orlok Tsubodai
The Wandering Wizard (1): Tani

 

D2:

Danex (6): Amanuensis, Ashbringer, Matrim's Dice, Stick, The Wandering Wizard, xinoehp512
Araris Valerian (2): Sart
Ashbringer (0): Shining Silhouette
JNV (1): TJ
Matrim's Dice (1): Danex
Orlok Tsubodai (1): The Bookwyrm
Aman (1):
Stick (1): Araris Valerian
Walin (1): Archer

 

D3:

Steeldancer (4): Archer, Ashbringer, DrakeMarshall, The Known Novel
Walin (4): Matrim's Dice, Shining Silhouette, Steeldancer, TJ
Biplet (2): Sart, The Wandering Wizard
Araris Valerian (2): The Bookwyrm
Sart (1): Araris Valerian

 

D4:

  Quote

Ashbringer (3): Ashbringer, Biplet, Matrim's Dice, The Wandering Wizard, Orlok Tsubodai
Biplet (3): Amanuensis, DrakeMarshall, Shining Silhouette
Steeldancer (1): Random Bystander
Sart (1):

 

D5:

  Quote

Steeldancer (7): Archer, Channelknight Fadran, JNV, Matrim's Dice, Orlok Tsubodai, The last Fae in the Woods, The Wandering Wizard
Sart (4): Amanuensis, Ashbringer, DrakeMarshall, TJ
Channelknight Fadran (3): Araris Valerian, Biplet, Steeldancer
Biplet (1): Sart

 

D6:

Channelknight Fadran (5): Archer, Ashbringer, Biplet, Matrim's Dice, The Wandering Wizard
Archer (4): Amanuensis, Araris Valerian, DrakeMarshall, JNV

 

D7:

Archer (5): Amanuensis, Araris Valerian, Ashbringer, DrakeMarshall, JNV
JNV (2): Matrim's Dice, The Wandering Wizard
Matrim's Dice (1): The last Fae in the Woods

 

D8:

The last Fae in the Woods (5): Amanuensis, Ashbringer, DrakeMarshall, JNV, The Wandering Wizard
JNV (2): Araris Valerian, Matrim's Dice

 

 

VOTE COUNTS (NOW WITH TECHNICOLOR):

Spoiler

D1:

StrikerEZ (6): Araris Valerian, Ashbringer, Devotary of Spontaneity, Shining Silhouette, Stick, The Bookwyrm
The Bookwyrm (3): StrikerEZ, The Wandering Wizard, xinoehp512
Walin (3): Channelknight Fadran, Matrim's Dice, Archer
Amanuensis (2): Sart, Steeldancer
Shining Silhouette (2): Amanuensis, TJ
Channelknight Fadran (1): The Known Novel
Stick (1): Orlok Tsubodai
The Wandering Wizard (1): Tani

 

D2:

Danex (6): Amanuensis, Ashbringer, Matrim's Dice, Stick, The Wandering Wizard, xinoehp512
Araris Valerian (2): Sart
Ashbringer (0): Shining Silhouette
JNV (1): TJ
Matrim's Dice (1): Danex
Orlok Tsubodai (1): The Bookwyrm
Amanuensis (1):
Stick (1): Araris Valerian
Walin (1): Archer

 

D3:

Steeldancer (4): Archer, Ashbringer, DrakeMarshall, The Known Novel
Walin (4): Matrim's Dice, Shining Silhouette, Steeldancer, TJ
Biplet (2): Sart, The Wandering Wizard
Araris Valerian (2): The Bookwyrm
Sart (1): Araris Valerian

 

D4:

Ashbringer (3): Ashbringer, Biplet, Matrim's Dice, The Wandering Wizard, Orlok Tsubodai
Biplet (3): Amanuensis, DrakeMarshall, Shining Silhouette
Steeldancer (1): Random Bystander
Sart (1):

 

D5:

Steeldancer (7): Archer, Channelknight Fadran, JNV, Matrim's Dice, Orlok Tsubodai, The last Fae in the Woods, The Wandering Wizard
Sart (4): Amanuensis, Ashbringer, DrakeMarshall, TJ
Channelknight Fadran (3): Araris Valerian, Biplet, Steeldancer
Biplet (1): Sart

 

D6:

Channelknight Fadran (5): Archer, Ashbringer, Biplet, Matrim's Dice, The Wandering Wizard
Archer (4): Amanuensis, Araris Valerian, DrakeMarshall, JNV

 

D7:

 

Archer (5): Amanuensis, Araris Valerian, Ashbringer, DrakeMarshall, JNV
JNV (2): Matrim's Dice, The Wandering Wizard
Matrim's Dice (1): The last Fae in the Woods

 

 

D8:

 

The last Fae in the Woods (5): Amanuensis, Ashbringer, DrakeMarshall, JNV, The Wandering Wizard
JNV (2): Araris Valerian, Matrim's Dice

 

 

A GLIMPSE OF THE FUTURE:

Spoiler

• D9: Aman/Drake/Wizard/Araris/Matrim/JNV
• N9: Aman/Drake/Wizard/Araris/Matrim
• D10: Drake/Wizard/Araris

 

TBH, E!Bip makes more sense than E!JNV. But taking out JNV here might still be a decent idea. Depends how much the Aman/Drake/Wizard core feels like eating itself. 

 

[StrikerEZ he/him]

I already didn’t trust JNV and trust Bip, so I don’t like that claim. Especially with the Sart claim that basically had to be fake. I’m voting JNV. 

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Okay so correct me if I'm wrong but I'm pretty sure we can just vote Araris and then if the game doesn't end I can pacifistically seek JNV

And one way or another this will result in peace, freedom, justice, and security being restored to the galaxy (Possibly after another cycle of killing Matrim as well but... details. The point is that I am pretty sure we will be able to pull it off unless the elims have something up their sleeve more than the obvious.)

13 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Also I made a thing

Square gang represent!!!!!!

Edited February 20, 2023 by DrakeMarshall

[Ashbringer he/him]

3 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Okay so correct me if I'm wrong but I'm pretty sure we can just vote Araris and then if the game doesn't end I can pacifistically seek JNV

Counterpoint: Mat 

But yeah. This is kinda what I meant, me dying doesn't matter much.

(Edit - yeah, just ordering)

3 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Square gang represent!!!!!!

Some of you are immune to my "Set Transparent Color" powers 

Edited February 20, 2023 by Ashbringer

[The Unknown Order he/him]

Should the dead people be voting today? Or do we want to wait just in case?

15 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Also I made a thing

  Hide contents

or two

  Hide contents

 

Hey, I'm still here a little. 

[Ashbringer he/him]

1 minute ago, The Known Novel said:

Hey, I'm still here a little. 

You're in the first one, but you died before the second. If I make a Portals one when all the Dead Villager votes come in you'll still be there 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I got the result that JNV was not Trolled. So if we have v!JNV, then we have e!Bip. Which now makes the cycle where Steel died quite a bit more confusing.

[Biplet she/her]

Wiz wasn't trolled

[StrikerEZ he/him]

So…JNV/Araris sleeper elims?

[Ashbringer he/him]

If Sart actually was Village, then Araris should be as well. But I think E!Sart trying to split suspicion and then draw the NK while immune via Rules Ignorer still makes more sense.

Annoyingly if we're split between Araris and JNV we can't really use Tunnel Constructor. I wanted to see that go off.

[Mat he/him]

5 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

If Sart actually was Village, then Araris should be as well. But I think E!Sart trying to split suspicion and then draw the NK while immune via Rules Ignorer still makes more sense.

Annoyingly if we're split between Araris and JNV we can't really use Tunnel Constructor. I wanted to see that go off.

I can flip a coin between the two if you want  

Edited February 20, 2023 by Matrim's Dice

[JNV]

Ok so theoretical evils left are Araris me or Matrim with the confirmed villager role and listen I know it sounds bad coming from me but if Araris  cant be NKd the option that looks best is voting them off now then killing me or Matrim probably me then if it comes down to it Matrim the day after so um yeah Araris and listen I find my continued survival as suspicious as you do if not more

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

The sacred numbers don't really believe JNV's scan.

However, I think I might.

There was resistance to voting up Biplet in the early game.

The elims blocked a kill targeting Biplet, that they knew or strongly suspected would be targeting Biplet.

I low-key elim read Biplet's response to when Aman was pushing Biplet, and mainly decided not to focus on it because other people I suspected more were alive.

The main point for village Biplet is that Sart accused Biplet. But this is not a simple thing. Claiming to have a red scan on an elim teammate is a conceivable strategy. Yes, it makes it highly likely that one of you will die, but it also makes it pretty likely that one of you will live, and that's important. D5 was a day where the vote was largely split between 2 elims, they were probably already going to lose at least 1 person no matter what, so such a desperate but effective strategy isn't totally unreasonable.

Also yes as JNV points out I can't terminally seek Araris on the other hand I can hit JNV.

Because if JNV is telling the truth about everything then the game probably ought to end after killing Araris, and if it doesn't well then we know who to kill.

It just seems like for e!JNV to be pulling this with the expectation of winning at the end of it, they would need to at least have an ability to either interfere with my action or get in an extra kill somewhere, but if the elims had access to either of those I feel they'd probably have used it already at some point during the last 3 nights when it would have allowed them to actually take out the most problematic and trusted villagers.

Or Wizard's secretly evil

Or Aman's secretly evil

Or I'm secretly evil

Or all 3 of us are secretly the elim team

Or JNV is village but Matrim is an elim Confirmed Villager but in this case I still think the village still wins most likely.

Idk

I don't usually focus so much on mechanics when solving and it feels weird

But weird games call for weird solutions >:P

[Araris Valerian he/him]

So we have e!JNV or e!Bip (or both), e!Sart (probably), e!Tani, e!Steel, e!someone in the first Tie Guy, and I guess 1 more. Honestly at this point Ada is the person I'd most consider as being a Confirmed Villager. The only thing that kept me from voting for him earlier was Striker's scan, which presumably gets foiled by CV. He was adamant about Steel being village. He also resisted my own push against Biplet on the basis of her role not fitting an elim team. We have an unaccounted for elim Troll (this could have been Bip). 

It might be better to exe me sooner rather than later, because of the +1 vote thing. Not sure there are enough elims left for that to matter though. My personal preference is JNV -> Mat, then I'd push for Ada the next day, but expect to get exed meyself then.

If Ada is elim, then he probably isn't a Troll (judging by the 2 role max we've seen so far, though no confirmation that is a hard rule), and Bip was instead. So we can test that by having him Troll someone during the night and I can scan. e!me would of course say that there was no Troll, but if I do report a Troll, then that would clear him in my mind for good.

[Mat he/him]

I guess the exe Araris/kill JNV idea makes the most logical sense. Basically every fiber of me prefers JNV though :P.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

12 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

If Ada is elim, then he probably isn't a Troll (judging by the 2 role max we've seen so far, though no confirmation that is a hard rule), and Bip was instead. So we can test that by having him Troll someone during the night and I can scan. e!me would of course say that there was no Troll, but if I do report a Troll, then that would clear him in my mind for good.

Why would e!Ada be in violation of the 2 role max? Is "elim" a role?

This check sounds vaguely reasonable but it also is angling to take a protect off the board on a cycle where it could quite possibly make the difference

The only thing that sticks in my brain as weird about all this is that it implies both of our meme makers are evil, which is just weird from a role analysis perspective, though not impossible. Who was it again that confirmed meme maker was a legit role? And how?

[Araris Valerian he/him]

7 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Why would e!Ada be in violation of the 2 role max? Is "elim" a role?

 

Ash’s list has him as both a Goalkeeper and a Troll. Which honestly seems like a pretty useful combination for the elims to have. But if he’s also a Confirmed Villager, which would be required to dodge the Striker scan (which I don’t think could be Trolled?), then that’s 3 roles.

I’m not sure any of my scans have been relevant to this game so far, so I suppose Bip and I both being elim and fake-claiming the same role works. In addition to what I said during the night, I’m not sure why e!me claims my NK immunity (while actually being NK immune). My +1 vote is confirmed (and my clarifying that was useful in clearing Ada), so any e!me explanation needs to account for some role that is strong enough to need a downside.

[xinoehp512 he/him]

1 hour ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Okay so correct me if I'm wrong but I'm pretty sure we can just vote Araris and then if the game doesn't end I can pacifistically seek JNV

You know, I know you aren't technically Stick, but that reminds me a lot of the play Stick pulled in LG89... 

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

21 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

so any e!me explanation needs to account for some role that is strong enough to need a downside

not to put too fine a point on it but I'm pretty sure exing you does account for it

14 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

You know, I know you aren't technically Stick, but that reminds me a lot of the play Stick pulled in LG89... 

I guess I should read LG89

[danex he/him]

hi i haven’t read a single word of this game since i was zombified are we winning 

[Ashbringer he/him]

1 minute ago, dannnnnex said:

hi i haven’t read a single word of this game since i was zombified are we winning 

Probably? Would be very weird if one of Aman/Drake were Elim rn. Wiz probably too. That leaves Araris, Mat, and JNV.

Orlok copied your Tie Guy role, which was helpful. Then Steel copied it and was probably Elim which means it's not as helpful.

[danex he/him]

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

That leaves Araris, Mat, and JNV.

if mat is ever alive this late into a game he’s definitely elim

thats my 2 cents

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

11 hours ago, Biplet said:

Wiz wasn't trolled

ALRIGHT STOP THAT ARARIS TRAIN RIGHT NOW!

BECAUSE THE HOLY GMs, PRAISE BE TO THEIR NAMES :P, HAVE TOLD ME THAT HE IS VILLAGE!

Or well I scanned him as an SE player so Mat/JNV is my PoE for now. I think we still outnumber but if there are two elims left or dead elims decide to use their votes, we will need you dead players.

Mat

Edited February 20, 2023 by The Wandering Wizard
Grammer

[StrikerEZ he/him]

1 hour ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

ALRIGHT STOP THAT ARARIS TRAIN RIGHT NOW!

BECAUSE THE HOLY GMs, PRAISE BE TO THEIR NAMES :P, HAVE TOLD ME THAT HE IS VILLAGE!

Or we'll I scanned him as an SE player so Mat/JNV is my PoE for now. I think we still outnumber but if there are two elims left or dead elims decide to use their votes, we will need you dead players.

Mat

Why Mat over JNV?