Mat he/him Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 Just now, DrakeMarshall said: That is irrelevant, because the only e!JNV situation also has e!Mat As a villager, I don't think it does? Cause like it's totally reasonable to me that e!JNV 'scanned' me for pocketing and credit, with the plan either to ML Bip today with a fake scan (which you would have already taken care of) or honestly is just e/e with you because I legitimately don't understand why you didn't kill JNV last night even if Bip was a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrikerEZ he/him Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 4 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said: That is irrelevant, because the only e!JNV situation also has e!Mat I don't understand why that makes my point irrelevant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat he/him Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 Just now, StrikerEZ said: I don't understand why that makes my point irrelevant? Because in that scenario, I'm evil too And if you don't think JNV is evil without me being evil, but think that e!me exists in a v!JNV world, then I should be the preference over JNV. Personally, from my entirely un-baised perspective (which I joke, but it's true, this is me looking in it from your PoV) I think there are worlds with e/v me and JNV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrikerEZ he/him Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: Because in that scenario, I'm evil too And if you don't think JNV is evil without me being evil, but think that e!me exists in a v!JNV world, then I should be the preference over JNV. Personally, from my entirely un-baised perspective (which I joke, but it's true, this is me looking in it from your PoV) I think there are worlds with e/v me and JNV. I think I'm finally understanding this. I have to rethink things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat he/him Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 Just now, StrikerEZ said: I think I'm finally understanding this. I have to rethink things. In other words, 'thanks for helping me decide to vote you' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 8 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: As a villager, I don't think it does? I don't think it necessarily does either, but I do think it necessarily follows from Striker's stated assumptions, and this whole dealio is pinging my "motivated reasoning" alarm bells somewhat tbh Regardless I do think it helps to reason these things out in the open, and to be on the same page about which things follow as a consequence of what we know or assume. We have a lot of (alignment of one player) implies (alignment of another player) relations we have to juggle!! As a general rule of thumb, if X implies Y then that doesn't tell us a single thing about X, it can only possibly make Y more likely. If e!Fifth implies e!Kas then Kas is eviller than Fifth. If v!Fifth implies e!Kas then Kas is eviller than Fifth. If e!Fifth implies v!Kas then Fifth is eviller than Kas. If v!Fifth implies v!Kas then Fifth is eviller than Kas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JNV Posted February 21, 2023 Report Share Posted February 21, 2023 10 hours ago, The Wandering Wizard said: ALRIGHT STOP THAT ARARIS TRAIN RIGHT NOW! BECAUSE THE HOLY GMs, PRAISE BE TO THEIR NAMES :P, HAVE TOLD ME THAT HE IS VILLAGE! Or well I scanned him as an SE player so Mat/JNV is my PoE for now. I think we still outnumber but if there are two elims left or dead elims decide to use their votes, we will need you dead players. Mat Ok Araris so the question is now what Im discarding the PM trio cause like if dead people can actually submit the kill then that whole shebang wouldnt have worked they would have just hit Drake so because of that Im kinda forced to trust Wizards scan cause like even ifI dont trust Biplet the only living Troll is part of the PM trio so um confirmed villager Matrim I guess this doesnt feel good but oh well and like if you want to vote me out first go ahead honestly this is the longest Ive been alive like ever so yeah please do then kill Matrim and vote Araris I guess and then the PM trio can eat itself alive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir he/him Posted February 21, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2023 (edited) 9 hours ago, The Wandering Wizard said: Assumption. Wait no, we are told a random GM fact so yeah random. Completely random. It's not rocket science... It's just RNGed for across a list of fact baskets... >> 2 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said: We have a lot of (alignment of one player) implies (alignment of another player) relations we have to juggle!! Edited February 21, 2023 by Kasimir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Araris Valerian he/him Posted February 21, 2023 Report Share Posted February 21, 2023 2 hours ago, JNV said: Ok Araris so the question is now what Im discarding the PM trio cause like if dead people can actually submit the kill then that whole shebang wouldnt have worked they would have just hit Drake so because of that Im kinda forced to trust Wizards scan cause like even ifI dont trust Biplet the only living Troll is part of the PM trio so um confirmed villager Matrim I guess this doesnt feel good but oh well and like if you want to vote me out first go ahead honestly this is the longest Ive been alive like ever so yeah please do then kill Matrim and vote Araris I guess and then the PM trio can eat itself alive I'm definitely going to push to exe Ada the next day if you and Mat both go down without the game ending. It's hard to say what all has gone wrong for the elims this game, but my take is that they quickly would have realized that they need to put one of their players (ideally a Confirmed Villager) in a position where said player would not get hit by a NK, would not be suspicious for the elims avoiding them, and also to have public support in the thread. Otherwise there isn't really any chance for them to win. Ada seems to fit that profile. Drake honestly does as well, but I've found Ada's actions in thread to be a lot more suspicious than Drake's. I can see a world in which Tani doesn't have a super useful role, or becomes busy IRL and volunteers to get killed to earn Stick/Drake some trust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis he/him Posted February 21, 2023 Report Share Posted February 21, 2023 If me surviving two nights in a row still doesn't clear me, then I could prove my Goalkeeper role by blocking a Drake kill. Though obviously I'd rather not go that route if we don't have to Otherwise, I'm assuming y'all would need to believe: a, I have three roles (Troll, Goalkeeper, Confirmed Villager); b, that Confirmed Villager counts for Lynchbait (which there was only one of in the game; feels silly to let that be influenced imo); and c, I'm more conniving than I am. I'm not sure what this says about Araris' alignment tho. Setting up an F3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat he/him Posted February 21, 2023 Report Share Posted February 21, 2023 Tbh I’m at the position where I can’t feel good about moving off Araris right now. We’re too close to the end, with too many questions regarding clears, and those scans were too convenient. Let’s just stick to the plan, yeah? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashbringer he/him Posted February 21, 2023 Report Share Posted February 21, 2023 Gonna go a little meta here for a moment: Is there a world where Kas gives E!Aman the Confirmed Villager role? It's possible someone else was a Goalkeeper and Aman ran with it. Especially since - and Araris, you might want to go back and look at this - Aman seemed to think he had the power to Troll his own Protect into a Kill. But meta-wise, and especially on the heels (ish) of LG91, I feel like a Confirmed Villager Aman will win the game, and there's little we can do about it besides go maybe the Elims are actually avoiding killing Aman and don't just want us to knock out a giant chunk of the (real) confirmed villagers for them. Aman was ready to go taking over before he ostensibly knew what was even happening. I'd say stick with the plan, which is exe JNV here. But I'm not burning my vote just yet. Just know the Elims might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted February 21, 2023 Report Share Posted February 21, 2023 Possible Eliminator Teams For the time being, I am looking at possible elim teams that don't require any of the following: A specific player to be a Confirmed Villager. The elims getting lucky and trolling a specific player they had no reason to believe at the time was a scanner. The elims using the NK on one of their own people to confuse us. While these all could happen, I believe any explanation that doesn't require any of these things is better than one that does. 1. Tani, Sart, Steel, (optional +1 dead player), JNV, Matrim Explanation: JNV lied about both of their scan results, because JNV is evil. Steel and Matrim are the 2 elims in Orlok's Tie Guy scan. One of Sart, Steel, or (optional +1 dead player) was the elim roleblocker who blocked Aman. JNV and Matrim are expressing suspicion of each other because they understand good distancing practice. 2. Tani, Sart, Steel, (1 of Shining/TJ/Archer), Wizard, Araris Explanation: Wizard lied about village scanning Araris, because Wizard is evil. Wizard is a troll, and poisoned both the Biplet scan and the Araris scan. The elims agreed to sacrifice 2 NKs to make Wizard more trusted. Steel and (1 of Shining/TJ/Archer) are the 2 elims in Orlok's Tie Guy scan. One of Sart, Steel, or (Shining/TJ/Archer) was the elim roleblocker who blocked Aman. 3. Tani, Sart, Steel, (1 of Shining/TJ/Archer), (optional +1 dead player), JNV Explanation: JNV is evil but has nonetheless been truthful about Matrim being a villager, and may optionally also have been truthful about Biplet being an elim. Steel and (1 of Shining/TJ/Archer) are the 2 elims in Orlok's Tie Guy Scan. The elim roleblocker who blocked Aman is one of the dead elims. 4. Tani, Sart, Steel, (1 of Shining/TJ/Archer), Biplet, Wizard Explanation: Wizard is evil but has nonetheless been truthful about Araris being a villager. The elims have no living trolls or roleblockers, and JNV's elim scan of Biplet is correct. Steel and (1 of Shining/TJ/Archer) are the 2 elims in Orlok's Tie Guy Scan. Me and the sacred numbers are in agreement that JNV is significantly more suspicious than Wizard. The question now is what the best order is to kill these people in I have an idea of what it might be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat he/him Posted February 21, 2023 Report Share Posted February 21, 2023 6 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: I'd say stick with the plan, which is exe JNV here Wasn’t the plan to exe Araris/kill JNV, because Araris supposedly can’t be NKd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashbringer he/him Posted February 21, 2023 Report Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said: Wasn’t the plan to exe Araris/kill JNV, because Araris supposedly can’t be NKd? I thought the plan was to exe JNV then kill Mat Idk. Me dying kinda threw me for a loop in terms of PoE. Which was probably the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat he/him Posted February 21, 2023 Report Share Posted February 21, 2023 15 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: I thought the plan was to exe JNV then kill Mat Idk. Me dying kinda threw me for a loop in terms of PoE. Which was probably the point. I don’t like that plan though It has a 100% chance of failure if the first step isn’t a success Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Araris Valerian he/him Posted February 21, 2023 Report Share Posted February 21, 2023 38 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: I'm more conniving than I am. It is not possible! I honestly don't expect the game to still be going at that point. But I give e!you a lot of credit, and you'll never convince me you don't deserve it . Figured I might as well lay down my cards now so it doesn't come as a surprise if we get there. In a situation where it is me, you, Wiz, and Drake, I think you're the most plausible elim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted February 21, 2023 Report Share Posted February 21, 2023 So my envisioned future, which may or may not have involved inciting a civil war thus providing the necessary blood sacrifice to complete the nationwide transmutation circle, has unfortunately been rendered impractical by a clarification by our eternally wise and benevolent GMs But changing the subject a little at this point I'm very sure the elim team is JNV/Matrim Unless somebody has a really amazingly logical explanation for why Matrim has been making a show of suspecting JNV for a while now, but has suddenly started advocating an Araris lynch instead now that JNV is actually in danger of getting voted up Araris has not suddenly become more suspicious, on the contrary, Araris has been scanned as village. There is no perfect way to hedge our bets against all possible elim teams but imma propose, propound, and proffer the plan where we throw the dice on JNV/Matrim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis he/him Posted February 21, 2023 Report Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 minute ago, DrakeMarshall said: So my envisioned future, which may or may not have involved inciting a civil war thus providing the necessary blood sacrifice to complete the nationwide transmutation circle, has unfortunately been rendered impractical by a clarification by our eternally wise and benevolent GMs But changing the subject a little at this point I'm very sure the elim team is JNV/Matrim Unless somebody has a really amazingly logical explanation for why Matrim has been making a show of suspecting JNV for a while now, but has suddenly started advocating an Araris lynch instead now that JNV is actually in danger of getting voted up Araris has not suddenly become more suspicious, on the contrary, Araris has been scanned as village. There is no perfect way to hedge our bets against all possible elim teams but imma propose, propound, and proffer the plan where we throw the dice on JNV/Matrim So JNV voting Mat is distancing, or? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat he/him Posted February 21, 2023 Report Share Posted February 21, 2023 (edited) 3 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said: Unless somebody has a really amazingly logical explanation for why Matrim has been making a show of suspecting JNV for a while now, but has suddenly started advocating an Araris lynch instead now that JNV is actually in danger of getting voted up Araris has not suddenly become more suspicious, on the contrary, Araris has been scanned as village. Maybe the part where I've been advocating for JNV's death for multiple days has something to do with it. I still wish you'd answer why you didn't kill them last night. As far as I'm concerned, JNV should already be dead three or four times over. For some reason, you've refused to do that. I'm voting Araris over JNV because Araris allegedly can't be NKd and therefore is the better exe option-- which I remind you was your logic initially, not mine. The beginning of the turn I mentioned that I prefer a JNV vote based on vibes but was submitting to that reasoning, and I still hold to that. I personally am not swayed by Wiz's overly convenient scan and am sticking to the PoE. Nothing has changed for me, reads wise, which has been true for days at this point. (Also JNV's vote, yeah ) Edited February 21, 2023 by Matrim's Dice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted February 21, 2023 Report Share Posted February 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: So JNV voting Mat is distancing, or? Vote Tally JNV (4): Araris Valerian, DrakeMarshall, StrikerEZ, The Wandering Wizard Araris Valerian (1): Matrim's Dice Matrim's_Dice (1): JNV Yea that seems the most likely at least to me I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Araris Valerian he/him Posted February 21, 2023 Report Share Posted February 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: I'm voting Araris over JNV because Araris allegedly can't be NKd and therefore is the better exe option-- which I remind you was your logic initially, not mine. But unless the game is ending this cycle, that doesn't matter. We have 3 people to kill (if we ungenerously include myself), and 2 exes plus a NK in the next cycle and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashbringer he/him Posted February 21, 2023 Report Share Posted February 21, 2023 (Also, Araris is 1 vote easier for us to exe if it comes to D10) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat he/him Posted February 21, 2023 Report Share Posted February 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said: But unless the game is ending this cycle, that doesn't matter. We have 3 people to kill (if we ungenerously include myself), and 2 exes plus a NK in the next cycle and a half. Well yeah, there's the difference, of those three I'm only including the people that have a chance at being elim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JNV Posted February 21, 2023 Report Share Posted February 21, 2023 You know what lets make this easier JNV Im curious about that cursed cat video its clear the Matrim vote isnt going anywhere and the rest of you seem to have this well in hand now for some actual last words do not stand at my grave and weep I am not there I do not sleep I am a quokka in a tree forever young forever free Spoiler 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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