Long Game 92: Process of Elimination

[Ashbringer he/him]

2 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

If I'm elim then you pretty much also have to believe that Wiz is elim, or that there is a living elim Troll currently, who didn't attempt to interfere with Ada/Drake the last two cycles.

Or you're Confirmed Villager and just have been claiming Meme Maker via E!Bip. Or you're a Bus Driver and can do who knows what.

Feels like that makes more sense than one of Ada/Drake/Wiz, and dead Ash doesn't really have the energy to go into those categories.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

10 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Or you're Confirmed Villager and just have been claiming Meme Maker via E!Bip. Or you're a Bus Driver and can do who knows what.

We can cook up something with Ada tonight to prove my Meme-maker. Or at least give some extra confidence that it’s real. Though I’m not sure why e!me and e!Bip would decide to call a fake role meme-maker. That doesn’t really have anything to do with Trolling at face value. And again this comes back to my lack of a scan on Randby, which doesn’t make sense from e!notMeme!me.

[Ashbringer he/him]

2 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

We can cook up something with Ada tonight to prove my Meme-maker. Or at least give some extra confidence that it’s real. Though I’m not sure why e!me and e!Bip would decide to call a fake role meme-maker. That doesn’t really have anything to do with Trolling at face value. And again this comes back to my lack of a scan on Randby, which doesn’t make sense from e!notMeme!me.

I meant more e!Bip was a Meme Maker and you claimed to also have the role. And we could try and prove it, but that stops Ada from proving Goalkeeper which is a similar issue.

 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

16 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

I meant more e!Bip was a Meme Maker and you claimed to also have the role. And we could try and prove it, but that stops Ada from proving Goalkeeper which is a similar issue.

I mean, Ada hasn't 100% proven Troll either, since e!Bip could have been a Troll. And verifying my role requires there to be some ambiguity about who is Trolled/whether a Troll happens regardless, so the two aren't necessarily mutually exclusive.

[Amanuensis he/him]

VC?

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

4 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I could see that minus me, which I guess we’ll see later tonight

Well, technically I said "name any elim team other than this that works" and you are right, the one I said but minus you actually works.

Credit where it is due, I didn't think anybody could name a different elim team and technically you did.

If JNV is the last elim though the current course of voting up JNV is going to figure that out pretty well

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 But honestly I don’t see how e!Araris requires more tinfoil than e!me/JNV, both require subversion of scans, but at this point you can just hit Araris D10 if needs be and that’s fine, my death won’t mean a loss. Probably. Obviously I prefer you test Araris/exe me D10 since e!Araris might be legitimately NKable, but it likely won’t make a difference.

See, but this is only if you consider players in a vacuum.

My challenge is can you think of a team that has Araris which makes sense.

And that's the part I think where it breaks down. Araris could be evil, but then it requires more other people to be evil than there is space in the elim team. Or it requires something unlikely like that we construct a theory where a specific person is a Confirmed Villager. And at that point, we can construct such theories about almost anyone to decide they are an elim, but it will still be less likely than an explanation that doesn't require it imo. I mean, I don't even know if there's an elim Confirmed Villager in the game, so basing my analysis on that feels sketchy. And even if you assume that there is an elim Confirmed Villager somewhere in the game, just the pure numbers of it means it's not that likely that the Confirmed Villager even got scanned by anyone. I think it's much more plausible that somebody lied than that a specific scan is wrong due to the Confirmed Villager role.

Unless I'm wrong. Unless you can think of a team with Araris on it, that accounts for everything we've observed and doesn't require any major tinfoil.

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Though it is still unbelievable to me how you did not yet answer my question

mistakes were made >>

I village read JNV even when it was not actually very logical to.

4 hours ago, |TJ| said:

I STILL don't know why y'all killed Fae omg.

mistakes were made >>

3 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

^This is me with Archer, Bip as well

mistakes were made!!

the fog of war is real ok

the fog of war is known by the state of california to cause overthinking

I have, since the deaths of both Archer and Bip, found reasons why both of them probably aren't elims, which I hypothetically could have figured out before they died but didn't realize

but look tbf if you turn out to be an elim then you do not get to criticize us sad poor confused villagery types you don't know what it's like ok

if you turn out to be a villager then by all means carry on

if you are village and JNV is the only elim left well then you have had this game solved better than most for the past few cycles I think

2 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

VC?

Vote Tally
JNV (6): Amanuensis, Araris Valerian, DrakeMarshall, JNV, StrikerEZ, The Wandering Wizard
Araris Valerian (1): Matrim's Dice
DrakeMarshall (1): Shining Silhouette

Edited February 21, 2023 by DrakeMarshall

[Mat he/him]

I guess I am considering players in a vaccum because the PoE is small enough to allow that and I'm trying to cover every possible solution, not just the most likely ones.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

I guess I am considering players in a vaccum because the PoE is small enough to allow that and I'm trying to cover every possible solution, not just the most likely ones.

That is fair, because the most likely ones do happen to include you pretty often

Well look unless Aman's evil worst-case scenario I am pretty sure I can force a mutual loss The elims really should have killed me sooner bc without an ace in the hole of some kind I can probably do this: D9 Wiz JNV Matrim Araris Aman Drake N9 Wiz Matrim Araris Aman Drake D10 Wiz Araris Drake N10 Wiz Drake D11 everybody's dead dave

But I don't believe things will progress to that point.

[Amanuensis he/him]

@Shining Silhouette you might not want to waste your one vote today

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

Drake

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Aman be planning for if you guys need to vote me later huh

im ok with that

[Amanuensis he/him]

9 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Aman be planning for if you guys need to vote me later huh

im ok with that

Nah just countering the elim hammer if it comes to that.

[Biplet she/her]

In a concert. Can’t read. Worried about end of game. Uh uh uh

JNV

[Amanuensis he/him]

Just now, Biplet said:

In a concert. Can’t read. Worried about end of game. Uh uh uh

JNV

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

τετέλεσται

(the cycle at least)

[Kasimir he/him]

LG92: Night Nine - Quokka You Doing?

Spoiler

 

>>>

 

JNV was removed! They were a Quokka Wrangler! 

(j/k there are no flips this is just something I made up on the spot.)

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JNV (7): Amanuensis, Araris Valerian, Biplet, DrakeMarshall, JNV, StrikerEZ, The Wandering Wizard
Araris Valerian (2): Matrim's Dice

The Night has begun and will end on Thursday, 23th February 2022 at 1100hrs SGT (GMT+8)!

[Kasimir he/him]

Rule Clarifications:

Spoiler

• Kas and Fifth are only valid vote targets at parity.
• The wincons are complete. 
• Flipless implies no roles and no alignments.
• Survivals, if any, will be written up in the standard way.

Player List:

Spoiler

1. @Ashbringer as Ash the Amateur, a RPing college student
2. @The Wandering Wizard as Emma, twin of Wiz, corruptor of all, avatar of the Kaos.
3. @Steeldancer as Steel
4. @Channelknight Fadran as Fadran the Guy From the Fellowship of the Thing Who Has Never Done This Before.
5. @StrikerEZ as Kjell, an overworked, stressed out man who really needs a break
6. @xinoehp512 as xinoehp513, a newbie to the forum that is very puzzled that his name was already taken.
7. @JNV as JNV
8. @Matrim's Dice as Matrim's Dice
9. @Biplet as Biplet
10. @Araris Valerian as Metalcognition, definitely not an imposter of the founder of SE.
11. @Devotary of Spontaneity as Cecelia, Devona, and Saponin
12. @Amanuensis as Adavantos
13. @The Known Novel as TKN (The Known (and Totally Kool) Novel)
14. @The Bookwyrm as Bookwyrm, the SE deprived Sharder who's doing this even though it might be a bad idea.
15. @Tani as Mehelin, a random bystander who isn't Randby.
16. @Archer as Archer, a player that's hellbent on PM spidering.
17. @Walin as Walin, the consistently befuddled and absent SE-er
18. @|TJ| as mad watcher
19. @dannnnnex as Danex
20. @DrakeMarshall as Drake
21. @Orlok Tsubodai as Orlok (he's Orlok right? I think?)
22. @Random Bystander as Random Bystander
23. @Sart as Sart
24. @Shining Silhouette as Silho, bootleg King's Wit
25. @The last Fae in the Woods as The last Fae in the Woods

[Biplet she/her]

Free me from this never ending hellscape

Edited February 22, 2023 by Biplet
tonal indicator: this is a joke

[StrikerEZ he/him]

5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

JNV was removed! They were a Quokka Wrangler!

I got so excited. I was like “OH MY GOSH FLIPS!”

Alas, my hopes were immediately dashed.

3 minutes ago, Biplet said:

Free me from this never ending hellscape

Mood

[Kasimir he/him]

3 minutes ago, Biplet said:

Free me from this never ending hellscape

It's okay Fifth and I feel you too and this is not a joke  

(*No actually it is.)

[Ashbringer he/him]

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH

 

(Also (mostly) a joke)

[The Unknown Order he/him]

[JNV]

Plot twist I was a totally different alignment all along no just a GM joke sorry also the cat video is really spooky like Frankensteins monster sort of cat turning on its creator because it could never be accepted for what it was and it never asked to be made its actually pretty cool dying might have been worth it also kill Matrim please thanks

[Mat he/him]

Dang the game isn’t over

Sucks to be me 

Have fun in D10  I’ll be around to help, but. Is there anything I can do to persuade you to not kill me? xD Maybe Drake should look at his sacred numbers again. I wanna use my TC 

[Archer he/him]

Intriguing!