Long Game 95: The Fire of Ado's Light

[JNV]

Hi hello Im Ruin hahaha evil laughter I destroyed Braize I need to destroy one more non Scadrial planet and Scadrial itself Im taking recommendations for what planet to destroy I think Nalthis Threnody Taldain are overall the least useful but Im down to hear arguments for against things so yeah also willing to take recommendations on murder but I do need at least four cycles of booked Shardic for my wincon so thats kind of important

[Kasimir he/him]

13 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I actually feel I drove the Alpha and xino trains over to some extent, for what it’s worth, though it could just be a difference in perspective.

Traveling today and limited to mobile only.

It felt like you were hopping on already-established trains, rather than opening or defending your own choices for trains: your rationale for Alpha was more or less:

I did feel the Xino observation was good in that it felt natural:

It did, however, also come from a player infamous for self-preservation regardless of alignment.

I'll agree you did open/follow-up on Xino though, so possibly I'm being too wary here:

In retrospect, feel ? about the Elan +1 - but also still feel more suspicion in the Araris-Archer vicinity.

Question for you, why's Szeth your strongest V read? Apologies if you've answered this at some point, I'm partway through backreading.

Edited to add:

7 minutes ago, JNV said:

Hi hello Im Ruin hahaha evil laughter I destroyed Braize I need to destroy one more non Scadrial planet and Scadrial itself Im taking recommendations for what planet to destroy I think Nalthis Threnody Taldain are overall the least useful but Im down to hear arguments for against things so yeah also willing to take recommendations on murder but I do need at least four cycles of booked Shardic for my wincon so thats kind of important

Can confirm this.

Edited June 16, 2023 by Kasimir

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

I too can confirm that the Ruin claim is genuine

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, DrakeMarshall said:

I too can confirm that the Ruin claim is genuine

Tfw you want to make a comment but cannot.

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

I can confirm as well unless anyone else was on Braize.

[DeTess she/her]

3 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

I can confirm as well unless anyone else was on Braize.

So you're saying you were on Braize at the time? May I ask why?

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

3 minutes ago, DeTess said:

So you're saying you were on Braize at the time? May I ask why?

No. I'm not on Braize. Otherwise why would I be asking if anyone else was on Braize?

[DeTess she/her]

1 minute ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

No. I'm not on Braize. Otherwise why would I be asking if anyone else was on Braize?

Well, I thought you were since you said you could confirm that JNV spoke the truth. Then may I ask how you knew?

[Szeth_Pancakes he/him]

Hello there my good chaps!

I’m moderately okay with either Archer or TBB. Archer for the reasons already stated, plus the fact that out of the PoE of D3 votes on me he reads the least villagery. (yay rhymes.) TBB is also in that pile, but we’re on Roshar together and his doc presence has read very v to me, despite his in-thread shadiness.

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

1 minute ago, DeTess said:

Well, I thought you were since you said you could confirm that JNV spoke the truth. Then may I ask how you knew?

They were randomly world hopped to my world.

[DeTess she/her]

1 minute ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

They were randomly world hopped to my world.

Ah, right, that explains it.

[The Unknown Order he/him]

3 hours ago, Archer said:

They almost certainly were village then, since the elim teams can't afford to lose a player to neutrality. 

If I was seriously advocating for no exe, I'd have framed it as less of a hypothetical. 

Voting TBB purely for using the trigger word 'accountability'. At this stage, I don't believe it's a thought that a villager solidly sizes upon. Source: e!me cares a lot more about that stuff than V!me

Trigger word? There are so many things wrong with this. Why would the village worry less about accountability 'at this stage?' 'At this stage' is when accountability matters most. And you're the one that's making it a trigger word, I mentioned it in passing and you've decided to make it a 'thought that a villager solidly seizes upon.' And you definitely can't judge me by your  meta. You can't judge anyone by someone else's meta, Rust and Ruin (hi JNV), you can't even judge me by my own meta sometimes. In conclusion, it appears I am joining the steadily growing train of Archer voters.

35 minutes ago, JNV said:

Hi hello Im Ruin hahaha evil laughter I destroyed Braize I need to destroy one more non Scadrial planet and Scadrial itself Im taking recommendations for what planet to destroy I think Nalthis Threnody Taldain are overall the least useful but Im down to hear arguments for against things so yeah also willing to take recommendations on murder but I do need at least four cycles of booked Shardic for my wincon so thats kind of important

Would it be possible to do one tap on Taldain before you do Scadrial, so we have that one in reserve and is therefore less valuable to the elims?

Edit: It is also quite literally almost impossible for the Village to win in less than four cycles. We could barely squeeze the sudden death in that time.

Edited June 16, 2023 by The Bald Brandon

[Mat he/him]

29 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Question for you, why's Szeth your strongest V read? Apologies if you've answered this at some point, I'm partway through backreading.

I don’t think e!Szeth pesters you like he did D2. Otherwise it’s just a gut read.

[Kasimir he/him]

7 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I don’t think e!Szeth pesters you like he did D2. Otherwise it’s just a gut read.

I agree with that, the strongest part is what I found a bit surprising.

[Archer he/him]

Y

3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Yes to both. Scadrial must also be destroyed. Continue to believe R on level. Likely can negotiate with R what worlds to sacrifice.

Thoughts on Archer?

Edited to add:

Unsure. Felt the pressure on Drake was very classic V!Fifth but could be wrong - V!Fifth radiates smugness when he thinks he has someone down to rights. Came through in the very heavyhanded "not interested in the kill but in the survival." Could be that Khriss faction felt that way because they thought they had found a V!Shard, but unsure.

Based off my profile, he could be Autonomy, but I don't feel his in-thread attitude fits.

I actually felt rather uncomfortable with N3 Archer, hence my asking again, and feel that today's TBB push more or less flagrantly runs in the face of exactly what Archer ostensibly agreed with last Night - that peripheral shots waste time. You could make a potayto/potahto argument that TBB isn't really definable as peripheral, but you yourself noted D3 that TBB hasn't said all that much despite thread presence, so it feels just as peripheral, especially when the basis of the vote is the term 'accountability.'

It's more reflexive of the formalist reasoning E!Archer likes to use, by seizing on tells that players use in previous games and using them in an entirely different context as though they translate wholesale.

I think Archer's in-thread hostility to Autonomy is wholly compatible as well with an Elim carrot-and-stick approach to Autonomy: harden Village attitudes to Autonomy by shifting the discourse window, and then approach Autonomy tacitly from the perspective of "well, look, the Village wants to eradicate you/milk every bit of advantage they can from you and you can win with us, so why not win with us?"

(This bit isn't a direct response, more of a comment to the concerns raised by @DeTess and @|TJ|

My approach to Dormamu - sorry I mean Autonomy - so far has been...well, the Roshar doc knows. I'd request them not to say too much, as in the event Roshar is uncompromised (doubtful, but who knows?) this should get the Elims in a bit of a tizzy  But as a general rule it's not too much different from my approach to Ruin. I do regret we don't share the same alignment and in Autonomy's case, can't win together, but I believe the numbers demonstrate we have short-term shared interests. (Longer in the term of Ruin.) I don't think anyone on Roshar, Autonomy included, is of the opinion we are anything other than gadara. The view is merely that treating Independents (Ruin) or Autonomy with reflexive hostility/wariness, especially if they've shown some preliminary willingness to negotiate, is fundamentally damaging to any form of decent cooperation. Or, I suppose, if you try to winmax another player, expect them to winmax you. If you approach them in good faith, hopefully you'll see that returned to some extent.

What I suppose I'm saying is that I believe Ruin can be negotiated with, and I don't really think the formality of having changed wincon makes that much of a difference. We can't do much against Elim blackmail/extortion of Ruin, but control of that issue left my hands anyway after Ruin was spotted on Braize, and I generally would argue (hi Ruin!) that I've at least argued/maneuevred for some protection of Ruin's own interests in balance, so that's something we have to offer that the Elims might not necessarily give.

Bracketing all that talk about negotiating with Autonomy, I still maintain that by way of numbers, Autonomy is not the major worry at this point. It is true this might be a more cursed issue in long term, but if the Village doesn't improve our short-term position, I don't see a point in talking about the long term.

FWIW, my read on TBB improved somewhat upon learning that TBB roleblocked VOCALS on D2. I knew VOCALS was roleblocked, as VOCALS hadn't shown on up Scadrial. (I had thought this was done by Turtle.) I do feel this is similar to DeTess claiming the Odium Charge shot - it feels like an unnecessary antagonisation of Autonomy. Elims don't have to work with Autonomy - as you point out, I grant this. But choosing to spend Charges early on doing so does feel like an unnecessary move for an Elim where resources probably matter just that tad more than against the Village.

Tbf, TBB absolutely could have been converted post D2. But this is my current thought anyway. Need to catch up properly.

I have a final set of thoughts:

Suppose we keep working with Ruin. Braize is now destroyed. Odium hasn't Intent Converted at this point. This does seem to entail that control of the kills isn't in Elim hands, which means vote superiority/the thread is going to be where a lot of the scrapping occurs. 

Can someone ID if there's some sort of mistake with this line of thought?

Lot to unpack here. First of all, you've got to reapply pressure every day because of the conversion mechanic. Best people to do that to are likely conversion targets, which are low profile/not under pressure yet still active enough to submit actions folk. So I'm continually reassessing people, prioritizing recent comments. 

With TBB it's not just the accountability line. It's also them outing the Roshar info and blowing me off about the request to determine Auto's identity. Where's your villager curiosity? I'll admit it's also self serving because, since no one in their right mind would ever convert me, if we can eliminate the possibility of me starting as Auto, I can only reasonably be evil as the two other named baddies. Which would be nice to establish in case they flip. 

It's frustrating that you call TBB low activity because this reductive definition of high activity you have seems intent on implicating only me. Idk if you're factoring in doc talking and that's throwing your perception off, but going by thread activity, I trust the higher profile folk. You, DeTess seem good. Actually might asterisk Drake. 

Where we're disagreeing is you're arbitrarily discounting the bloc of TBB, Elandera, TJ, Mat, Szeth. Maybe Araris. They're all kind of in the muddy middle. I'd argue it's actually notable that some of them have taken a step back this game - you mention people being present but feeling peripheral. Voting people like that is like SE 101. Point is, you're accusing me of not voting among a group where the most reasonable person to vote on is me. What am I supposed to do differently? 

(I miscleared Drake by not understanding that mechanic correctly. Need to reevaluate, but I'm not going to vote him just to fit in a grouping I disagree with the composition of) 

Speaking of roleblockers, 

1 hour ago, Elandera said:

I also tried to siphon Mercy last night to steal it from elims, but got RB'd. Makes me wonder if the elims have had more trouble converting than assumed. Otherwise there's no way they shouldn't have broken out a shard last night.

This was me. Idk what I was expecting. This is a very tidy response. 

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Noting that this is wrong. Elim Team 1 + Elim Team 2 + Autonomous (non-Bavadin) all choose who to win with:

 

Good to know

23 minutes ago, JNV said:

Hi hello Im Ruin hahaha evil laughter I destroyed Braize I need to destroy one more non Scadrial planet and Scadrial itself Im taking recommendations for what planet to destroy I think Nalthis Threnody Taldain are overall the least useful but Im down to hear arguments for against things so yeah also willing to take recommendations on murder but I do need at least four cycles of booked Shardic for my wincon so thats kind of important

Were you village? 

[Kasimir he/him]

16 minutes ago, The Bald Brandon said:

Would it be possible to do one tap on Taldain before you do Scadrial, so we have that one in reserve and is therefore less valuable to the elims?

I suppose what this really means one way or another is that what we're requesting is:

Do Scadrial last? Braize counts anyway, so JNV just needs to get one more world done, then Scadrial.

@JNV - Need some anti-roleblock Charges? 

[JNV]

1 minute ago, Archer said:

Were you village? 

Yeah but you know regardless of the baseline alignment pre Intent Conversion I would say that so its not the most useful question

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

@JNV - Need some anti-roleblock Charges? 

Yeah thatd be nice yeah 

[Kasimir he/him]

14 minutes ago, Archer said:

Where we're disagreeing is you're arbitrarily discounting the bloc of TBB, Elandera, TJ, Mat, Szeth. Maybe Araris

I'm not, actually. I just find you more suspicious than all of them. Elan's on my watchlist, I'm no longer willing to V!read Araris, and I've explicated suspicion of Mat in this thread directly before your post, so this is a weird take. I've also made it clear at no point do I V!read Drake, so he's in my null box.

14 minutes ago, Archer said:

Lot to unpack here. First of all, you've got to reapply pressure every day because of the conversion mechanic. Best people to do that to are likely conversion targets, which are low profile/not under pressure yet still active enough to submit actions folk. So I'm continually reassessing people, prioritizing recent comments. 

Perhaps, but this is also a very good excuse to make pretty opportunistic votes on side-trains without having to deal with much resistance or discussions. I think the way I'd put it, as I did on Roshar, is as follows: 

1. I don't buy that there are that many Elims hiding in the Flatline 7. That set formally excludes TBB, Elan, TJ, Mat, Szeth, and Araris, so you are already strawmanning my argument. 

2. I absolutely refuse to buy that in a landscape with <Archer, Araris, DeTess, Fifth, TJ, me, Mat, TBB, Elan, Drake>, that the Elims absolutely refused to convert anyone at all within this set. I absolutely do not buy that and it beggars belief. Buying this in fact commits us to the claim that they're largely in the Flatline Seven, and I don't think that's remotely reasonable. You're suspicious because you keep insisting on picking on the players who are the most quiet of this set, and therefore the least likely to put up a serious fight. That feels like fairly opportunistic voting to me, in combination with your preference for formalistic reasoning when Evil.

Let me point to the set of players you have voted on or seriously pushed using this line of reasoning: <Walin, Elan, Turtle, Szeth, TBB>, and that's just off the top of my head. You don't get to claim this is because no one is immune to conversion. This is strictly speaking true but let's be real - Fae is so inactive it's a real gamble to convert her. For that reason, she's not been on the top of my list. You're casing them as prospective conversion candidates without caring about the context, and I find that pretty sus. It reads more like busywork and finding soft targets to me. I don't feel your stance really emerges from a Village mindset.

Drake is provably Odium. Unlikely he'd execute a teammate just for Village cred (any other likely killer can counterclaim), so if he's Evil, he had to be converted pre-N1 or be Autonomy, I guess. Enough for me to sort of earmark him but drop him for now. Fifth was converted. 

14 minutes ago, Archer said:

It's frustrating that you call TBB low activity because this reductive definition of high activity you have seems intent on implicating only me. Idk if you're factoring in doc talking and that's throwing your perception off, but going by thread activity, I trust the higher profile folk. You, DeTess seem good. Actually might asterisk Drake. 

Define reductive.

I don't think it's reductive because he has decent thread activity but isn't saying much as a result of them or in terms of reads. I absolutely think that it beggars belief that no Elim team has at all a single thread controller. Perhaps this reflects my inherent bias towards thread-strong Elim teams, but in a landscape where the teams lack kills (on paper, anyway?) That's a really weird game landscape to postulate.

14 minutes ago, Archer said:

This was me. Idk what I was expecting. This is a very tidy response. 

Hmm, interesting.

Edited to add:

I guess I'd put it this way:

TBB has decent activity but he's primarily defensive. If anything, he's not going to be able to stop flak when it's shooting at the team or set thread agenda. And that's fine, we all have our favoured play niches as a player. It certainly doesn't prevent him from being Evil, and while I give him V!credit for the D2 RB of VOCALS, I'm not going to overdo it either.

But I do think that the fact you fit the profile of a thread controller (just look at the Fifth conversion) and your choice of targets over the course of this game (I leave blank when you might have been converted as I don't have a solid theory on this) doesn't seem quite right to me.

Edited June 16, 2023 by Kasimir

[Archer he/him]

7 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

 I absolutely think that it beggars belief that no Elim team has at all a single thread controller. 

I'm pretty sure this is the crux of why I'm being exed and I can't really defend against it. 

You've come around to Mat today, but the last time this came up you told me Mat and Szeth didn't fit the profile. And if they didn't, few people do. So you'll forgive me for being skeptical that you bringing them back in is anything other than a backup plan. 

My instinct is to dig in my heels on TBB because I don't like them being dismissed so casually, but I do have other people on the side burner. But I was also hoping to get some TBB interaction of it. Eh I'm just gonna call it a day for now

[Kasimir he/him]

13 minutes ago, Archer said:

You've come around to Mat today, but the last time this came up you told me Mat and Szeth didn't fit the profile. And if they didn't, few people do. So you'll forgive me for being skeptical that you bringing them back in is anything other than a backup plan. 

I said they didn't fit the H/K/B profile. Now we're talking about converts. With Szeth specifically, it's a statement that it doesn't make sense to convert a player under fire because you then have to expend a lot of thread energy defending your investment. You'll forgive me for being sceptical that you're arguing in good faith as you don't particularly seem interested in engaging with arguments but are preferring to strawman them.

I've also made it clear since my first post of the Day that I continue to V!read Szeth, so you'll forgive me for wondering if you're actually engaging at all, in the first place. Szeth's inclusion is insofar as we're looking at what isn't in the Flatline Seven.

13 minutes ago, Archer said:

I'm pretty sure this is the crux of why I'm being exed and I can't really defend against it. 

Given I've just said your voting patterns are pretty opportunistic, this seems a tendentious read.

I'm open to changing my vote until EoD. I just don't see reason to for the moment.

Edited June 16, 2023 by Kasimir
spelling

[Elandera she/her]

Archer has a good point. He's a terrible conversion target, and I don't really see the evidence of him being elim at the beginning. We're focusing in the wrong places. I'd like to vote Szeth for the N0/D1 reasons I mentioned last cycle, but I can see there isn't likely to be a ton of support there. So instead I turn to potential conversions. Low profile but active enough.

Wizard.

[Szeth_Pancakes he/him]

I already put this in the world doc, but I think it bears repeating in-thread:

Figured out why I don’t like Archer. It seems like about half of his arguments are deliberate misunderstandings of why people are doing something. Case in point: the “accountability” thing. He took TBB’s language completely out of context and then just… rolled with it. He took Kas’s point that high activity players should be looked at and interpreted it as a personal attack. This feels like pure elim paranoia and motivated reasoning.

[Kasimir he/him]

18 minutes ago, Elandera said:

Archer has a good point. He's a terrible conversion target, and I don't really see the evidence of him being elim at the beginning. We're focusing in the wrong places. I'd like to vote Szeth for the N0/D1 reasons I mentioned last cycle, but I can see there isn't likely to be a ton of support there. So instead I turn to potential conversions. Low profile but active enough.

Wizard.

Spoiler

 

[Elandera she/her]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

  Hide contents

 

Yes, I acknowledge I also fit within this category, but I am trying to do better.

Spoiler

 

[Archer he/him]

9 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I said they didn't fit the H/K/B profile. Now we're talking about converts. With Szeth specifically, it's a statement that it doesn't make sense to convert a player under fire because you then have to expend a lot of thread energy defending your investment. You'll forgive me for being sceptical that you're arguing in good faith as you don't particularly seem interested in engaging with arguments but are preferring to strawman them.

I've also made it clear since my first post of the Day that I continue to V!read Szeth, so you'll forgive me for wondering if you're actually engaging at all, in the first place. Szeth's inclusion is insofar as we're looking at what isn't in the Flatline Seven.

Given I've just said your voting patterns are pretty opportunistic, this seems a tendentious read.

I'm open to changing my vote until EoD. I just don't see reason to for the moment.

Quote

I'll note FUD tend to be an E!Mat tell/tactic, as is Mat's willingness to be proactive in engaging the direction of the lynch. I'd watch for Mat doing reads erosion into mid-game. Also perspective slips depending on how the game is going. Potentially dampened by the fact Mat is lower activity than usual but I think the good comparator for busy!V!Mat is LG91, since that was pretty much the case there.

Quote

Sorry bro, I kind of think Szeth is LHF and that's where your vote went.

It was bugging me so I went back to find what you'd said about them. 

I just realized LHF means low hanging fruit and isn't an acronym for... well I was reading it as low activity something something and that they weren't a good choice because of that. I also don't know what FUD means but the context is Mat is being quieter but that's okay. Which the distro wouldn't account for and it's actually a point of difference to be sussed. 

12 minutes ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

I already put this in the world doc, but I think it bears repeating in-thread:

Figured out why I don’t like Archer. It seems like about half of his arguments are deliberate misunderstandings of why people are doing something. Case in point: the “accountability” thing. He took TBB’s language completely out of context and then just… rolled with it. He took Kas’s point that high activity players should be looked at and interpreted it as a personal attack. This feels like pure elim paranoia and motivated reasoning.

I wouldn't say personal attack. Just a little frustrated about the meta argument that the elims would be given a thread controller. True in a normal game, not in a game where only 3/20 players start as evil and there's a high risk D1 for them. I thought I'd inoculated against it earlier but I evidently didnt do enough.

The accountability point comes from self analysis. E!me wants control over unknowns. E!me is less careful with secrets. I see a lot of that in TBB. 

 

As for the voting patterns. Eh. I've suspected everyone I've voted for. I'm willing to go all in without much to back it up because it's a conversion game and frankly everyone has been incredibly unremarkable. I do regret not pushing Araris harder on the day xino died but actually I've given a blanket clear to everyone who offered to be killed so it should have been been szeth. Speaking of,