Long Game 95: The Fire of Ado's Light

[Mat he/him]

I know that’s what you’re saying, and it’s true. My point was a different one entirely, though. e!me follows consensus even though he doesn’t know why  v!me continues to obliviously be wrong

(but honestly, given how archer treated wiz, I still think he’s a reasonable option for a teammate. Meta aside)

[DeTess she/her]

27 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Is there some reason you're prioritising Mat over Elan? Not sure I have a particular read strength difference, though I do E!read both of them in general to approximately interchangeable degrees given the choice of CW, and the general opportunism synch.

To be honest, thinking about it all a little more objectively, I agree it's closer to a proper toss-up between who to execute first. I just really wanted my righteous revenge on e!mat, which made me indicate my preference there.

[Szeth_Pancakes he/him]

Interesting instrument choice.

Spoiler

[Kasimir he/him]

33 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I know that’s what you’re saying, and it’s true. My point was a different one entirely, though. e!me follows consensus even though he doesn’t know why  v!me continues to obliviously be wrong

(but honestly, given how archer treated wiz, I still think he’s a reasonable option for a teammate. Meta aside)

You ninjaed me so I just stuck it here  

Edited to add 2: @Matrim's Dice I guess let me put it this way. Obviously I'm not ruling out the worlds where you and Elan are Villagers with V motives in pushing that train. I just fundamentally don't fully buy that the E teams are majority LPLA at this juncture. I am, in fact, somewhat suspicious of players who push that line. Perhaps the Night's events will change my mind. But suppose I reject the LPLA hypothesis (which I think Archer and Fifth offer us at least preliminary reasons to do so.) Let's furthermore include TBB and Szeth in the ~(LPLA) set, just to be complete. 

I point out again that one dimension I kept emphasising that kept getting ignored yesterday, whether because inconvenient or otherwise: if you believe JNV was Village pre-conversion or that JNV is dedicated to their wincon, and if you believe Drake is Village (as you claim to), then the conclusion you are forced to draw is that at the end of N1, the Elims realised they had zero KP. They must surely consider that the subsequent destruction of Braize was a possibility, and I think we can now project that Fifth hurrying to Braize N2 was perhaps both a reaction to his Near Death Experience on D2 (and Death having a Near Fifth Experience) and potentially conditioned by the fear that Braize was going to get blown to bits by V!Ruin. (Or at least a Ruin they didn't control.)

Even if you believe that the Evil players somehow had zero concerns about their lack of access to kills, you must also surely believe that Fifth's team at least, i.e. Team Khriss, must have taken one look at the fact JNV was on Braize and drawn a very obvious conclusion there.

In other words, I think that if you are committed to a certain set of claims about Drake and JNV that seem to be pretty shared by a decent chunk of the gamne, then you're also committed to asking: what did the Elims do about it?

The reason I don't like the LPLA hypothesis is that it supposes that as of D2, or latest, N2 (and keep in mind Fifth would have reported in then, so Team Khriss's conversion could already have been affected by this) - the Elims knew they had zero KP, one Elim team realised they were not even going to get to keep Braize, the entire thread was going on about LPLA and H/K/B, and...the Elims seriously did not even consider reacting either to their lack of KP (indicating a need to weaponise the exe) or the fact that everyone was flooding searchlights at the LPLA bracket?

That kind of takes a very special sort of Elim team, to be so set in their ways. I don't find that really plausible.

Or let's phrase it more bluntly: if, in this landscape, you are still predicting a majority LPLA team, then you're saying the Elims decided they were ok with no KP and that their main strategy would be to tank everything out even if they couldn't do anything about the lynch or the kills. (Perhaps they were trying for Dominion?) That feels like a very tendentious take to cling to LPLA.

So let's pretend, for the moment, that I've motivated ~(LPLA), at least a little.

Then the question is, who in our remaining set is sus?

<Wiz (borderline case), Mat, Elan, DeTess, Kas, Szeth, TBB, Drake, TJ, Araris.>

We've removed Fifth and Archer and found that they are with Khriss and Hoid respectively.

Szeth was your top V read. If that hasn't changed, I don't think you object to removing Szeth. I certainly don't.

<Wiz, Mat, Elan, DeTess, Kas, TBB, Drake, TJ, Araris.>

We have to asterisk Drake - Fifth shot him, and he killed Fifth. Unless Drake claims Survival sometime soon, and arguably even if he did, it's just barely (because we know they are kayana gambit madlads) possible to believe that Drake and Fifth are teamed. Too much wasted effort for pointless distancing that resulted in the death of Fifth. 

<Wiz, Mat, Elan, DeTess, Kas, TBB, Drake*, TJ, Araris.>

I'm not going to bother justifying the decision to remove myself. I'm just going to do it

<Wiz, Mat, Elan, DeTess, TBB, Drake*, TJ, Araris.>

TJ could be a Khriss Elim but I agree with DeTess's assessment: second voter on Archer seems pretty solid. You could argue in a H!TJ world he/DeTess got locked on and couldn't back off, and he has a known appetite for extreme distancing, so maybe asterisk him. But he has at least been consistent in flagging Archer - I distinctly recall him asking me for my views on Archer the previous Turn. (In fact, one of the reasons I suspect him of being a Khriss teammate is precisely because I usually remember him being more concerned about E!Fifth and was surprised he didn't sound out about that this time.) Similar concerns for DeTess.

I'll give TBB some V credit both for willingness to kill Aut Avatars (partial because claims =/= actions) and RBing of VOCALS on D2. It's unnecessarily antagonising Autonomy for not necessarily much gain. Elims should be harder up on resources. I will say I have a slightly positive tonal/vibe read on him, but acknowledge world docs aren't visible at this point, so I can't really offer much convincing on that front except that he felt different from LG81 (?) - Steel's game, when he infiltrated my faction's doc as an Elim.

I can't say much for Araris except that he fits on both a Fifth team and an Archer team, in my book, and he more or less was willing to offer a light V read of Archer using the exact same reasons as Elan. He had some small interactions with both Fifth and Archer that feel they could be potential distancing.

I've made my views on Wiz clear. You can disagree with meta and certainly Wiz can change his meta, but I think patterns of behaviour/habits are strong, and he didn't even remotely react to a PM asking him about his views on the fact he was now a CW. If we're entertaining E!Wiz worlds, I'd note he fits on an E!Fifth team slightly better actually.

Then, there's you and Elan. You can make a TWTBAW type argument about both of you voting on an Archer CW, but I think ultimately the question is: does Team Hoid not even remotely try, even a little? They can't win with Team Khriss, so losing one player puts them at a relative disadvantage against two teams. Even more so if Archer was their Face. I can certainly buy they didn't do anything, or a late bus /shrug

With regard to Elan in particular, there's an interaction with Archer I want to chase back down, similar for you. I remember Archer pushing you to vote him, and I remember Archer pushing Elan for a while but I don't think anything came out of it. It might have a distancing vibe, it might not, so it's worth re-reading.

As a reminder, if you believe this set is wrong, then the Elims have to be in: <STINK, Walin, Fadran, Fae, Turtle.>

I don't rule out E!Walin - I find that last post fairly performative and a departure from his last stints pinch-hitting FWIW. Fae feels like a very rough bet given her history of brutal inactivity. Theoretically that should slow people down for Turtle but you never know. I slightly vibe read STINK Village but acknowledge it could go either way. I'm curious about your Fadran read.

JNV left out for pretty obvious reasons.

Edited to add 3 I suppose:

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

Even if you believe that the Evil players somehow had zero concerns about their lack of access to kills, you must also surely believe that Fifth's team at least, i.e. Team Khriss, must have taken one look at the fact JNV was on Braize and drawn a very obvious conclusion there.

Even if you would like to argue this is not a given, I will state that JNV told me that Fifth knew they were Ruin by the time they left. It may be possible to ask for a clearer timeline, but I won't remotely believe that Fifth didn't even suspect that JNV was going to blow Braize up as a possibility when he saw JNV on that world.

Edited June 18, 2023 by Kasimir

[The Unknown Order he/him]

When I came up with the Meme Code, I failed to realize I wouldn't be able to decipher their origins.

Are we in consensus?

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

sir believe whatever u want >:P

49 minutes ago, The Bald Brandon said:

Are we in consensus?

Spoiler

I'm a firm proponent of prequel memes but the issue is more with my location

also, I seem to be short a certain PM that I was expecting

anyways I'm like a solid 85% sure that the fact that nobody has called out the painfully obvious secret plotting business is heavily indicative of Something

Spoiler

good evening

 

[The Unknown Order he/him]

19 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

but the issue is more with my location

Um. Drake. Where are you?

Edit: And when were you planning on telling the rest of the class that you had been converted?

Edited June 19, 2023 by The Bald Brandon

[Mat he/him]

28 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

the painfully obvious secret plotting business is heavily indicative of Something

Look at this point I just figure that it’s equally obvious Kas was more or less lying about nothing going on at Roshar that wasn’t also in the thread (or at least it’s no longer true at all) so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I’ve accepted that and won’t try to force myself into it as that would result in much third wheeling etc and I’d rather just go with my vibe reads till I inevitably get exed

16 minutes ago, The Bald Brandon said:

Um. Drake. Where are you?

Edit: And when were you planning on telling the rest of the class that you had been converted?

I’m actually like 60% sure he’s Autonomy but idk man

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

30 minutes ago, The Bald Brandon said:

Um. Drake. Where are you?

Edit: And when were you planning on telling the rest of the class that you had been converted?

Roshar.

why would I ever share something like that with the class smh

17 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Look at this point I just figure that it’s equally obvious Kas was more or less lying about nothing going on at Roshar that wasn’t also in the thread (or at least it’s no longer true at all) so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I’ve accepted that and won’t try to force myself into it as that would result in much third wheeling etc and I’d rather just go with my vibe reads till I inevitably get exed

not that it's really any of my business, but

I figure a villager who doesn't have any fun doc action would feel a bit more miffed about all this wangjangling

whereas if you're an elim and you're alreading scheming it up in your own "sus ppl only VILLAGE KEEP OUT" club house then you're probably more just like "ok fair enough"

19 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I’m actually like 60% sure he’s Autonomy but idk man

[Mat he/him]

Just now, DrakeMarshall said:

I figure a villager who doesn't have any fun doc action would feel a bit more miffed about all this wangjangling

Riddle me this

Why is public annoyance useful? What would it gain me I mean. Maybe I’m wrong but imo the answer is absolutely nothing (if not suspicion for being vocally and/or overly loud about it)

And also like rn I don’t have the energy/time to keep up with something like that so in theory, yes I’d love to and yes, I’m annoyed there’s this whole thing going on in the doc that I’m lowkey sometimes being sussed for not picking up on but it’s not really possible or even desirable in my current state to do so or attempt to do so I don’t see any reason to complain about it or worry about it etc

So yeah there you go

Continue rosharing or being autonomous or whatever, I’ll be picking up charges to stave off the sd wincon and hopefully get a cool shard power or two, and keep on doing my uninformed vibes reads cause I’m honestly fine with that 

[The Unknown Order he/him]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Look at this point I just figure that it’s equally obvious Kas was more or less lying about nothing going on at Roshar that wasn’t also in the thread (or at least it’s no longer true at all) so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I’ve accepted that and won’t try to force myself into it as that would result in much third wheeling etc and I’d rather just go with my vibe reads till I inevitably get exed

I’m actually like 60% sure he’s Autonomy but idk man

Yeah, that's the other possibility. Not that there's anything I can do about it.

41 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Roshar.

why would I ever share something like that with the class smh

not that it's really any of my business, but

I figure a villager who doesn't have any fun doc action would feel a bit more miffed about all this wangjangling

whereas if you're an elim and you're alreading scheming it up in your own "sus ppl only VILLAGE KEEP OUT" club house then you're probably more just like "ok fair enough"

...did you not see the doc? *checks* You should at least have been able to put in the order. This is... disappointing.

Kas, can you confirm/deny? Are you willing to? (Edit: @Kasimir)

32 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Riddle me this

Why is public annoyance useful? What would it gain me I mean. Maybe I’m wrong but imo the answer is absolutely nothing (if not suspicion for being vocally and/or overly loud about it)

And also like rn I don’t have the energy/time to keep up with something like that so in theory, yes I’d love to and yes, I’m annoyed there’s this whole thing going on in the doc that I’m lowkey sometimes being sussed for not picking up on but it’s not really possible or even desirable in my current state to do so or attempt to do so I don’t see any reason to complain about it or worry about it etc

So yeah there you go

Continue rosharing or being autonomous or whatever, I’ll be picking up charges to stave off the sd wincon and hopefully get a cool shard power or two, and keep on doing my uninformed vibes reads cause I’m honestly fine with that 

How would you like to join the scheming? Apparently we need a new fourth member, and I surprisingly trust you.

Edited June 19, 2023 by The Bald Brandon

[Mat he/him]

Smh plan in the doc you don’t need to rub it in xD

I mean I could just worldhop to the doc :P. What do you mean ‘apparently’? 

It doesn’t have to be a surprise >.>

[The Unknown Order he/him]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Smh plan in the doc you don’t need to rub it in xD

I mean I could just worldhop to the doc :P. What do you mean ‘apparently’? 

It doesn’t have to be a surprise >.>

Will you be on at rollover?

@Kasimir, @Szeth_Pancakes, due to Drake’s apparent betrayal (or at least vacation from the plan), do you have any qualms with bringing Mat into the fold? I know this would be telling the whole thread but at least it would get done.

[Mat he/him]

Erm

I could be

I’m currently in Mountain time so it’s at a whole eleven pm which is saddening but I could manage that I guess

Why does that matter though

[The Unknown Order he/him]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

I’m currently in Mountain time so it’s at a whole eleven pm which is saddening but I could manage that I guess

Same. It's hard for me.

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Why does that matter though

Well, obvious the Roshar four were going to pull off a v!hammer on a night turn.

[Mat he/him]

Hence my confusion :P.

edit: this is a reaction test isn’t it

Edited June 19, 2023 by Matrim's Dice

[The Unknown Order he/him]

5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Hence my confusion :P.

edit: this is a reaction test isn’t it

Nah, you think I'm smart enough for that?

[Mat he/him]

I think Kas is :P.

Edited June 19, 2023 by Matrim's Dice

[The Unknown Order he/him]

5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I think Kas is :P.

What makes you think Kas is the one leading this particular possé? 

[Kasimir he/him]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Look at this point I just figure that it’s equally obvious Kas was more or less lying about nothing going on at Roshar that wasn’t also in the thread (or at least it’s no longer true at all) so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I’ve accepted that and won’t try to force myself into it as that would result in much third wheeling etc and I’d rather just go with my vibe reads till I inevitably get exed

It was true at least of the time of writing. May have gotten caught up in something else after that.

31 minutes ago, The Bald Brandon said:

@Kasimir, @Szeth_Pancakes, due to Drake’s apparent betrayal (or at least vacation from the plan), do you have any qualms with bringing Mat into the fold? I know this would be telling the whole thread but at least it would get done.

I did highlight that getting Szeth and Drake on board would be A Problem  With Drake specifying he was on Vacation.

IMO what it is is pretty obvious, and if you bring Mat into it, you might as well just tell the thread and do a mass v!hammer. The downside is this substantively opens the Night for Elim action, which has problems of its own. I considered asking Araris which is ironic but I at least have a PM with Araris ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

2 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

also, I seem to be short a certain PM that I was expecting

We both agreed something was Definitely Not True, I'm not sure how you expected that to happen with actions economy. I suppose I could've warned you all but I sort of just figured you were all fine with it  

It's funny when it's not my problem yeah

I'll note that if something is Definitely Not True, something else we actually really want to happen is also Definitely Not Happening, but also, Taldain? You still down for more rave? :eyes:

49 minutes ago, The Bald Brandon said:

Kas, can you confirm/deny? Are you willing to? (Edit: @Kasimir)

Confirm or deny what specifically? You know my policy on Autonomy guesses. I cannot fairly help the Village on that front. 

Edited to add:

3 minutes ago, The Bald Brandon said:

What makes you think Kas is the one leading this particular possé? 

I can confirm this whole operation was Szeth's idea  I'm just joyriding for the lulz.

Edited June 19, 2023 by Kasimir

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

@Szeth_Pancakes why no PM?

not to put too fine a point on it, but um

following through on this is sort of important, if you want me to continue killing elims and not Intent Convert

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

edit: this is a reaction test isn’t it

based but no

we were plotting to steal a Shard

well, a second one in my case, but u can never have too many!

i uh

didn't get around to putting in a worldhopping order

last i was online we were still discussing options so im not sure why y'all were so certain i would do this but whatevs

1 minute ago, The Bald Brandon said:

What makes you think Kas is the one leading this particular possé? 

I mean, he definitely is

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, DrakeMarshall said:

I mean, he definitely is

My official policy is I V!read Szeth and he doesn't me, and I'm on Vacation too, so I'm letting him make the calls, I just offer strategic advice and peace out anytime someone says Autonomy  

[Mat he/him]

6 minutes ago, The Bald Brandon said:

What makes you think Kas is the one leading this particular possé? 

Yeah I was like

have you met Kas? xD

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Yeah I was like

have you met Kas? xD

Sir I'm on vacation!

[The Unknown Order he/him]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Yeah I was like

have you met Kas? xD

Have you met me? Kas is an SE colossus, but I don't subordinate very well. And Kas is being laid back, kinda.

8 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Confirm or deny what specifically? You know my policy on Autonomy guesses. I cannot fairly help the Village on that front. 

Yeah, that's fine. Just checking.

10 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

last i was online we were still discussing options so im not sure why y'all were so certain i would do this but whatevs

Last time you were online, at least last time you edited the doc, we had agreed to go to Silverlight at minimum. 

Alright, so we tell the thread/Mat at Rollover - 30 minutes?