Long Game 7: The Annealing of Luthadel

[Renegade he/him]

Alright, that’s a lot of Informant shenanigans going around.  Let me see if I can make any sense out of them.

 

Racine has three pieces of information that we’ve learned: She’s a Tineye, skaa, and used her metal on QuiteLeftInch.  There are a couple explanations I see for this.  First is that she is a skaa who didn’t say anything about herself to the Informant, and we received three different facts from the GM.  Don't know how likely that is.  It is possible she didn't go to the Informant to receive information about Kassel, but instead received that information from one of her doc-mates.

 

On the other hand, I feel that she was set up by the skaa yesterday.  Her vote was Soothed (more about this below), probably to attract attention and get people to use Informant actions on her.  But in that case, assuming none of us are lying about our Information, it would mean that Racine used a Truth action (she's a Tineye), and two other players lied about her (she's a skaa, and she used an ability on QuiteLeftInch).  I really have no idea what to make of that.  Some discussion from different players could help us find the truth (and Lies) here.

 

Jain: What I think happened here is that he put a Truth into the Informant: “I cannot kill.”  Since that’s not useful to the Informant, the action was discarded and nothing happened.  (It'd be nice if he confirmed whether or not he got any information.)

 

Okay, I’ve been holding on to the other Informant info I received, because I wanted to see how the first one went over.  Seeing how the events have transpired, I refer you to this:

 

Rust. Alright, here's what I know (since Racine already knows all of this):

 

Yesterday, Jain was Rioted. As there is (apparently) no Kandra in House Urbain, he must be a Smoker. Now, what was our only missing vote last cycle? Twei's vote for Gamma. This means that Twei must have been a Rioter who tried to force a lynching. Now with a bit of planning, it would be possible for this to have been set up by Jain and his Skaa cohorts. However, the simplest solution is usually the best, so Twei is most likely a Skaa Rioter. I don't know if it's worth pushing for a lynching, but Twei or Jain must be Skaa.

 

The second fact I got from the Informant is that Aonar is a Soother.  Make of that what you will.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

In response to Tulir's comment, which I think is fully justified, my plan of lynching a Lord/Lady was based on a faulty assumption that the new lord would not be revealed to the public, so all the members in the house would still be secret from the skaa.

About Racine, we have a couple possibilities:

1) Somebody lied about the result of the informant action, which means only 1 skaa lie action needed to be used

2) Racine is a skaa, and used a kill action last night

3) 2 or more lies were fed to the informant and everyone has reported their results truthfully

I think options 1 and 2 are the most likely, since option 3 has a 1/9 chance of all the informant actions giving different results. Option 2 is slightly more likely than 3 because there would be 4 pieces of info available; her metal, house, skaa and metal target. This doesn't apply if all 3-4 skaa that didn't kill someone put different lies in about Racine. I suspect that someone in the thread lied about the informant action, and only one of those isn't verifiable by anyone else. I am still going to withhold my vote, but Ren is my highest suspicion right now. If anyone has a possibility that I missed or different probabilities then feel free to correct me.

[Wyrmhero he/him]

Just twenty-four hours left in Day 2! I will be unreachable for a large chunk of it, I'm afraid, but hopefully that shouldn't matter too much.

Edited July 27, 2014 by Wyrmhero

[Aonar he/him]

Alden stood. He'd engaged in some of the early discussions, but had fallen back as soon as he realized he was growing too involved. Sometimes, the patterns were easier to see from the outside. Clearing his throat, he looked towards the front of the room, where the main discussion was taking place.

 

"Someone here is lying to us, I'm afraid. We know that Racine claims to have spoken to the informants this past night, which is supported by her knowledge regarding Lords Erikell and Urbain." Raising a finger, Alden continued. "However, three separate pieces of info were given about her from others; all different. This suggests that she did not in fact visit the informants.

 

"Now, we find ourselves with a conundrum. We have evidence that implicates Racine, and her defence cannot be proven. On the other hand, it seems very coincidental that not one, not two, but five people should act on Racine in the space of a day. She was Soothed, Coinshot, and ratted on by three separate informants. Why? What made her such an important target?"

 

Alden began to pace, trying to keep his thoughts straight. "The only one of you who has even attempted to prove that you truly have information on Racine is Ren, and, given that I am a Soother, I am inclined to believe him. So I ask you, Lady Cat Elariel, why should we believe that you received your information through legitimate means? Why should we believe that you received information about Racine at all?"

 

So yes, I am a Soother (and this is what I provided the Informant with). I did not Soothe Racine the first day. I assume that that would've been the Skaa Soother, if there is one.

 

I'm not sure where things are going, and Jain and Twei are most certainly not cleared, but I'd like people to consider all their options here, instead of jumping on a weakly supported accusation (I know people have not done so yet, but the sooner we can explore our options, the more use we can get out of the day turn).  

Edited July 27, 2014 by AonarFaileas

[Sart he/him]

Someone has to be lying about the informant here. Let's look at the options.

1. Twei is lying. (I am a Tineye): That's definitely a possibility, but there are some other options.
2. Rengar is lying (Twei is a Skaa): Why the heck would he lie about something like this? If Twei is innocent, it would immediately blow up in his face. Unlikely.
3. Tulir is lying. (Twei is a Tineye): Well, Twei has claimed that he is a Tineye, so that makes Tulir's story more convincing. However, Tulir could have learned about that (if he's evil) from another Skaa.
4. Luckat is lying (Twei targeted QuiteLeftinch): This seems the most suspicious. We'll need Quite to confirm her story. There's three possibilities. Either Twei is a Skaa, Quite told Luckat about the message and Luckat is skaa, or Quite and Luckat are both Skaa)

One of these 4 is a Skaa. Here's what we need to figure out. First, why did three different people decide to ask the informant about Twei? What was the reason you guys did so? Second, Aonar, how do you know that Racine was coinshot? No one has mentioned that in the thread. We need to get to the bottom of this.

[Theorymaker he/him]

Sylinia sat at her table watching the nobles on the Dias accusing each other over one thing or another. It was actually quite boring, but the possibility that a fight might break out (it is the Fighting Dias) kept her watching. Sylinia had stopped listening to the nobles a while back and was instead listening to the music. It was very nice music but everyone was too focused on the arguing to want to go dancing, so Sylinia kept on sitting at her table, bored.

 

Vote Tally:

Tonul (0): Fien, Mailu

Racine (1): Fien, Kassel

Hadrian (1): Tonul

Cat (2): Aonar, Mailu

Ren (1): Hadrian

(I didn't put in all the retracted votes but if you think they're important tell me or include them in your list).

Edited July 28, 2014 by Theorymaker

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Well, if 11-15 of us used the informant action (20-4/5 skaa and 1-4 house powers) then there are decent chances that at least one person got pulled up 3 times. Especially if they are in the same house and trying to verify allegiances. Unfortunately, we now have so many people involved in this discussion that the chances of guessing right are now 1:6 which is worse than a completely random guess. The worst scenario for us is that 3 or 4 skaa all told lies about Racine, which would lea to us lynching everyone involved without finding any skaa. The math says that this is fairly low, but if we can confirm that Lucat is telling the truth then we can't deny the possibility.

I think red: Ren is the most suspicious right now because his claim has no way to be verified.

Edited July 27, 2014 by Araris Valerian

[Metacognition he/him]

Mesist found the Raisaal Keep to be, like its owners, arrogant, and brutal. Seriously? A raised dais for duels? How primitive. He preferred to outwit his opponents instead of using force to coerce them into action. It was part of what had made his House as prosperous as it was. Some said that he could sell a nag to the Lord Ruler himself and make him think he was getting a thoroughbred. 

 

He couldn't think of anywhere else he rather not be. ...Well, maybe not the Urbain Keep. That might be worse. Still, if this is where the rest of the Nobility were going to be, then this is where he'd be. He still had to secure some contracts for his House and now, with the new Lord Heron's witch hunt, wouldn't be a good time to be absent anyways. 

 

Mesist found himself a table near the wall and watched and listened. It seemed that tonight was actually going to be even more interesting that the last! The Nobles seemed primed for killing one of their own on the idea that they were Skaa. Evidently they had all taken Lord Heron's threat the other night seriously. 

 

They weren't the only ones. Mesist figured that if he could help root the Skaa out of some of the other Houses, that would be a little icing on the cake when it came time to get back to business. 

 

"Seems to me," he said as he pushed off against the wall and strode towards the group of Nobles arguing whether or not their information was enough to condemn Racine. "That we have two good options for the day. Both Racine and Tonul are looking mighty suspicious to me. Racine can't have done what she says she has, based on all the information and Tonul is not only helping her build an alibi, but I heard that he went against our plans on the first day.

"I'd say we should send 'em both to the Inquisitors if we could do that."

 

-----------------

Well, at least I got a little RP in!

Okay, so here's why I think those two are the most suspicious. 

Racine could not have gone to the Informants last night and given them good information. This is obvious just by the amount of different claims we have. I have asked Wyrm and if there is one piece of information about someone, then everyone would get that same piece of information about that person rather than a GM fact*. If there is not a piece of information available, then people will get a GM fact and which one they get is randomized. So, in conclusion, Racine could not have gone to the informants last night with good information about herself for us to have so many different informant claims. 

That alone is suspect unless she had something else to do at night, like use a House Power. Thing is, Racine has already claimed to have gone to the Informants, so we know that she's lying to us in some right or another. 

For it to be any other way, we'd have to assume that the Skaa basically put all of their lies on one person. Now, that would still be helpful information. If we lynch Racine and she's innocent, then we know that the Skaa put most of their lies on her and we can, with relative reliability, trust any information about other people. 

 

*Also, based on the answers Wyrm gave me, there is no way to tell whether a piece of information is a GM fact or a supplied one, so Aonar, how do you supposedly know that your information on Jain was a GM fact?

 

I also suspect Tonul since, as Cat pointed out, he basically gave Racine the information rather than seeing if we could catch her in a lie about her Metal. Whether intentional or not, he was effectively assisting Racine in trying to clear her name.

Add to this the fact that he used Zinc on Day 1 when we had specifically said that Noble Allomancers shouldn't use their powers so we could catch any Skaa Allomancers messing with the vote. And remember, I was one of the ones on the chopping block and I'd have rather died if it would give us a better chance of catching the Skaa. If he really wants to allay my suspicion, he'll have to come up with a good reason why he went rogue and tried to get someone killed. 

 

So those are my thoughts. My vote will likely go to one of those two, as I think those are our best options at this point. 

Edited July 27, 2014 by Metacognition

[Lightsworn Panda he/him]

I will not cast my vote yet, but I will make a 'it' RP post.  

 

It lay in the city well, staring up into the sky. The man finally found a good place to throw him. Here, he felt even more paranoia and distrust than in a ball. Apparently the Skaa  the even lowlier beings had heard that the nobles the other lowly beings had accused that some of the even lowlier beings were in their Houses.

 

What distrust. Such paranoia. Suddenly, it was lurched upwards and the even lowlier beings started shouting to each other suddenly he was shoved into a warm cavern, not unlike the one the day before, except it had holes in it. And they were heading to home. To his good friend Jain, and his insufferable brother.

 

Edit: Changing vote

Edited July 27, 2014 by Lightsworn Panda

[Mailliw73 he/him]

So, before I leave tomorrow, I want to make sure I get at least this one post here before the cycle ends. I definitely won't be able to post tomorrow before the cycle ends.

 

Cat, Tonul, and Racine are my biggest suspects right now. Cat is actually less suspicious than Tonul in my mind, but being in House Elariel, she stood to gain a lot of power from Quitania's death. Whether or not she knew if she was the heir, she was, at least, aware that she had a 50/50 chance of becoming the Head of the House. So that's where my final vote of today goes. Racine just seems too perfectly suspicious to be actually suspicious. There is condemning evidence, but there is just the fact that so many people targeted her and it just feels too be aligning too perfectly to me. Aonar is most likely my fourth suspicion, he keeps giving little hints of information that aren't public knowledge. Either Twei used her Tineye power, if it exists, on him and they've been talking or they're in the same house. There's just too much information that Aonar has about Racine. Ren is probably my fifth suspicion, but he feels honest to me. 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

One thing that we haven't addressed it the effect that a lynch could have on the house powers. If we lynch someone that we don't know the house of, they could be either the last unidentified person in house Elariel or a noble from house Asyr, both of which would help the skaa a lot. Right now it seems as if we are deciding between Cat and Racine. Killing Cat right now would make it certain that her house power is destroyed, since the skaa kill would happen next. I think we should only do that if we are certain she lied about her informant action.

[Aonar he/him]

Meta: Jain had no way of knowing that Tonul Rioted him, unless they are collaborating, in which case he would not have Rioted him, knowing that he was a Smoker. Ergo, the fact I received about Jain must have come from Wyrm. I'm rather surprised you didn't figure that out yourself, Meta. Either that, or It somehow serves Jain and Tonul's agenda as Skaa for us to believe that he is a Smoker.

 

Sart: I already mentioned that Twei knew what my Informant results were. However, I am not utterly certain that Lukat is lying. Put two and two together and you get...? 

 

The way I see it, Occam's Razor says there are two most likely solutions. A: Twei is Skaa, and all information we recieved was correct. B: Lukat and Finch are Skaa, Ren's info was a Lie, and the Skaa intend to set up Twei. I'd be slightly more happy with lynching Lukat than Twei (although not really for any game relevant reasons), but I'd be fine with either. One of them has to be Skaa.

 

Maill: I have to get some fun out of this without being killed unduly.  

 

Something I'd like to add (though it's not incredibly important): Kalden said he forgot to put in a night action. This is all well and good, but anyone who did not visit the informant and gain info is suspicious in my mind.

[Ashiok]

Sorry for coming late to the party. I was too busy to post anything this weekend till now.

Everybody gets free information!

I am in a minor house with Tonul, so he rioted to save me. Would a skaa riot away from somebody whose role was known to them that they could probably control for now (me) in favor of an unknown?

Question for Twei:

What did you do last night/what happened to you?

[twelfthrootoftwo]

Racine slid her glasses off her nose. No need to pretend she needed them any more. She looked slowly around the gathering of nobles. The accusations against her had been flying wildly, and now it seemed the nobles were divided. Some called for her to be cast to the Canton; others were adamant that she had been falsely accused, and spoke up in her defence. And there seemed to be a sizeable group who were simply staring at her, waiting for a response. Burning Tin, she could see her son, Terin, deep in conversation with another man she didn't recognise. He kept glancing her way and frowning. Naturally, the accusations against her had cast him into doubt as well. It would be a shame to see her family ruined because of this mess.

She smiled. She always smiled.

One of her loudest detractors was not too far away. His navy suit was rumpled, and above the smells of perfume and food she could make out his characteristic horse odour. It seemed he believed himself above the whims of fashion, but she knew better. The louder one announced they were not playing a game, the deeper they sank into it.

"There is one thing I don't quite understand, Master A'Lees. It is all well and good to think that Tonul and myself are your enemies, and to call for our deaths is - if perhaps a little extreme - understandable. I note, though, that you have not truly committed yourself to this cause. Why hesitate? Are you not sure which way the crowd will go?"

It's tricky to distinguish between what Meta said and an actual vote, in RP at least. In case it's not clear: Meta, if Tonul and I are 99% certain to be Skaa, why not vote for either of us?


Ashiok, to answer your question to the best of my knowledge:

I went to the Informant and put in that I was a Tineye.
I received information in return, one of which was Kas' target.

I did not open a PM with anyone.
I was hit by a Coinshot.
 

[luckat she/her]

I don't have much time now, but a few things:
 

Alden began to pace, trying to keep his thoughts straight. "The only one of you who has even attempted to prove that you truly have information on Racine is Ren, and, given that I am a Soother, I am inclined to believe him. So I ask you, Lady Cat Elariel, why should we believe that you received your information through legitimate means? Why should we believe that you received information about Racine at all?" 

 
For what it's worth, the other person I asked about was Joe, and I learned his Metal. I don't want to reveal what it is without his permission though. The information that I put in was my house, which you all know now anyways. If anyone asked about me, then I assume that is what the would have learned about me. I don't have any proof beyond that. I suppose if you all lynch me, then you'll at least know I'm telling the truth.
 

One of these 4 is a Skaa. Here's what we need to figure out. First, why did three different people decide to ask the informant about Twei? What was the reason you guys did so? Second, Aonar, how do you know that Racine was coinshot? No one has mentioned that in the thread. We need to get to the bottom of this.

 
I don't know why the others asked about Racine. For me, it was more or less a random choice of someone I thought wasn't much in the public eye. I guess I was wrong about putting her in that list.

 

 

I still want to hear from QuiteLeftInch whether a PM conversation was started between him and Racine. QuiteLeftInch, please clarify this. I know that the information I got was actually from the Informants, but I am not disregarding the possibility that it was a lie, and that is why I'm not voting for Racine now.

[Ashiok]

Ok, we know that Racine can be killed at will, I was just double checking a hunch... Wait. Does a coinshot kill reveal allegiance?

[Kasimir he/him]

Ash, a Coinshot kill doesn't reveal allegiance. Neither does a skaa kill. (To be precise, a skaa kill will always reveal House and role but never allegiance, i.e. skaa-ness.)
 
The only kill in this game that reveals allegiance is the lynch.
 
Also, Araris, lynches do not destroy House powers unless the House powers go to a lynching skaa. The powers go to one of the random lynchees.
 
In any case: I am not entirely certain what to make of this puzzle, and I have to head out for most of today, so to avoid any untoward accidents: Racine.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

RP wise, it wouldn't, since the death info comes from Inquisitor torture. So I doubt it.

@Kas But if we lynch Cat then the skaa can kill the new lord/lady for certain and destroy the power.

Edited July 28, 2014 by Araris Valerian

[Kasimir he/him]

Araris: So, tell me, how do you come by the knowledge that there are only two people in House Elariel?

[Ashiok]

I'm confused. Was that ever in question? Didn't we always know that Elariel was semi-great?

[Theorymaker he/him]

Okay, now that I know for certain that Racine was shot I have a question. Asyr (a smart guy), who did you target last night? (I know you're a Coinshot).

 

Sylinia eventually couldn't hear the music over all the arguing back and forth. So she asked Asyr a simple question. For she knew once the question was asked silence would fall.

Edited July 28, 2014 by Theorymaker

[Ashiok]

Asyr? Who is that?

[Ashiok]

Ok... How do you know that?

Does the write-up show the difference between skaa kill and coinshot/ pewter/atiium ones?

[Gamma Fiend he/him]

So, bleh. Sorry haven't been able to get on all day yet, storms and tornado warnings, and an unreliable internet connection do not add up well together. >.<

Glad to see there's been a lot of discussion, though! Though I would still like to hear from Jaelre, Cadri, Newan, Fain, Kaldin, and Hyrun. Their insight into this could really help, the more people we have analyzing things the better, because we can also then potentially catch people in lies.

 

The vote discussion has been interesting though. I am still not really sure what to make of everything. the fact that there's been so much information, particularly about one person (Raccine) has been surprising. It's making it look more and more like this was a set-up from the Skaa (Soothing her vote so all people then look into her, while the skaa flood information about her).

 

With the contradictions of information being thrown around, it really is hard to imagine 4-5 skaa being able to flood that many lies in one night (Save of course they have a House Lord with the Terrisman power). And I really hope that this vote doesn't get worked into another tie that can be messed with from vote-manipulation. (Especially if we can't count on non-Skaa Emotional Allomancers not messing with the results....)

 

I'm of course not saying that we should all bandwagon on a vote, just make sure that before the cycle ends, we all at least have a comfortable lead with the votes so it can't be messed with. We need the information from the lynch

 

As for who I actually think we should lynch, I still am really not sure, I'll admit. That's why I'm going to keep my vote where it is right now until I can actually get some actual assessment going. I just wanted to mostly try and use this post to call out the people who haven't taken the time to post in the thread and participate with the vote/discussion so far.

Edited July 28, 2014 by Gamma Fiend

[Shivertongue he/him]

"What are the chances," Cadri mused, "the 'lords' Urbain and whats-his-face A'lees will be trampled by horses before they arrive?"

 

"Quite unlikely, my lady," Ranvi replied.

 

"Knocked into a canal by a troupe of dancing koloss?"

 

"Even less so. Koloss do not dance."

 

"Not yet..." She muttered, pulling on a pair of dark red gloves and examining herself in the mirror. Shaking her head, she pulled them off and tossed them aside. The whites gloves were better. She made a small twirl, smiling at the way the fabric fluttered. "Shame what happened to Quitty. It would have been lovely to see her again." Elariel had always maintained good relations with Raisaal. Why Quitty had not taken some of the Raisaal hazekillers her house had on staff, she didn't know.

 

There was a soft tapping at the door; Ranvi opened it, speaking quietly with a skaa servant on the other side. "My lady," he said a moment later. "Most of the guests have arrived, and the Combat Dais is fully occupied."

 

"Performace or guests?"

 

"Guests, my lady."

 

She cocked an eyebrow, turning toward the Terrisman. "Are they killing each other? That would be far more entertaining. Ooo, let's see if we can get Fein up there tonight. He doesn't even have to fight, someone can just push him off." She frowned, then shook her head. "No... then we'd have a mess to clean up. The Urbain stench never comes out completely..."

 

"They appear to be arguing," Ranvi said. "No weapons have been drawn, and the House Seekers report no allomancy. Accusations have been thrown, however, primarily against Ladies Racine and Lekal."

 

Cadri stared at him for a moment before sniffing. "Well, that's boring." She brushed past him, returning the salute of the two Raisaal guards on the other side. Ranvi followed at her heels as she walked through the corridors, going over in her mind the information she had been given the previous night.

 

Naturally, it had been Urbain's fault. She was pretty sure of that.

 

She stopped just outside the ballroom, turning toward her steward. "One moment... Ladies Racine and Lekal? Cat Lekal, who was just made the head of Elariel? Accusations against the new Head of House just after the previous was murdered in the night?"

 

"Yes."

 

"Does that seem a mite suspicious to you?" Cadri tapped the end of her fan against her cheek, puzzling through the matter. "Kill the Lady, and the heir takes her place. Put suspicion on the heir the next day... seems to me as though someone is trying to eliminate Elariel..." She wished she'd thought to ask her informants about either of the ladies last night, but she'd had her mind focused on others. For all the good that had done her.

 

These thoughts on her mind, she stepped back as Ranvi pushed open the doors, then followed the eunuch inside.

 

The ballroom was full when she arrived - or at least, half of it was. Nobles and servants mingled about the dining half, with another half dozen on the dais, but the dancing half was sadly unoccupied. The band she had hired to perform were sitting, talking amongst themselves, completely ignoring the rest of the room. She frowned, glaring at them for a moment before striding down the red carpet and up the dais. A sharp look form Ranvi sent the others running down the opposite steps. Putting on her best smile, she turned to the guests, bowing graciously. 

 

"I would like to thank you all for coming, and I would like to say how lovely it is to see all of you," she said. "But then I noticed Lords Urbain and A'lees, and realized I would be lying. Shunning the obvious exceptions, Raisaal Keep welcomes you." She paused, considering, then flashed the crowd a bright grin. "And if you bloodthirsty lot decide that someone here tonight needs to die, rest assured, a single death will be a new record for an event hosted by Raisaal."

 

She giggled into her hand, then began to descend the steps to the lower level. Halfway down, she paused again, and added. "Just don't get anything on the carpet. It dates back to the Ascension, you know."

 

 

----

 

Been a busy weekend for me as well; I've been able to find the time to read the posts, but none to actually post until now. I have no votes as of yet, but the arguments against Racine have been fairly compelling...