Long Game 7: The Annealing of Luthadel

[Lightsworn Panda he/him]

Yes, I'm back. And from the bad feedback and mockery my brother has given me, I will not take care of his account and let it dry out in the sun. In fact, I'm voting Jain.

[Kasimir he/him]

There are two issues I'd like to table for discussion:
 
1. I think it is quite likely that Coinshot activity is/was implicated in Sylinia's death. A skaa kill alone would not be sufficient, unless Sylinia was hit by a Blanket Soothe and was unable to burn Pewter. Moreover, if we assume that Sylinia had been injured by a Coinshot prior to this night, we must then ask if we think Sylinia had been burning pewter consistently (probably yes. And if Sylinia has been consistently burning pewter, then it is, perhaps, possible that an unreported injury has come about from attacking her.) Too many unknowns at this stage, but we have, perhaps, a very rough picture laid out. To add to the puzzle, Asyr and Ash, our two public Coinshots have both claimed they did not hit Sylinia. That being said, it could, of course, be the action of a Mistborn. But I think there's another problem with this.
 
2. Soother activity. I assume Aonar had no reason to Soothe Racine as she was his Housemate, but I would like to hear from Aonar himself that he wasn't responsible for the Day One Soothe. (I apologise if you have indeed done so, Aonar--I may have missed it out while going over the thread.) We know, as well, that Racine is no Rioter. Tonul has claimed that while he Rioted Jain on Day One to save Ash, his Housemate, and that he did not Riot anyone on Day Two. I think we have prima facie reason to believe him, as the lynch has proven him to be a noble. Jae, our other publicly-advertised Rioter, has not voted until Day Three, which means he couldn't have been responsible for Emotional Allomancy, assuming we believe him to be truthful about being a Rioter. (I see no immediate reason to believe this is not the case.) There have been no more vote shenanigans from Day Three onward. So how do we make sense of this? Either we have another Soother--other than Aonar--playing with the votes, or we postulate a Mistborn having received Zinc/Brass on both Day One and Day Two. A slight alternative is that we postulate a second Mistborn, who received Zinc/Brass on at least one day. Neither of these are impossible. But this, then, threatens to complexify any solution to the Coinshot puzzle.
 
One element in favour of the One/Two Mistborn Theory, is that it doesn't require us to explain why the Soother should suddenly go dormant after Day One and Two. They simply did not receive the correct metals. But at the same time, I've gotten somewhat interesting information from the Informant.
 
I apologise, Wandrin. All the same, I'd like to know what you make of this. More importantly, I'd like to know what you've been doing over the past nights.
 
Current state of the votes:

Jae (1): Ren
Wandrin (3): Hadrian, Mesist, Kas
Jain (2): Asyr, Jain
Ash (1): Fien

[Ashiok]

If it is two Mistborn, odds are that either a coinshot or a Mistborn is skaa... And that is BAD!

Let's assume two of each metal role, two Mistborn, three coinshots and 2X an extra ______. Also, four or five Skaa.

I dunno how this would work out, or if it's even true, but by the law of averages, if this is the case, the skaa have a coinshot or Mistborn, and nobody has openly come out as Mistborn...

The only other way She could have died is a blanket soothe, which would imply that a house lord is skaa, and that's bad too...

[Araris Valerian he/him]

My house power is still intact.

[Ashiok]

Can we discuss stuff? I have nobody to talk to except the GM, and he can't discuss strategy or anything game related that isn't a rules question...

[Kasimir he/him]

Pardon, this is the current Running Tally I have:

Jae (1): Ren
Wandrin (3): Hadrian, Mesist, Kas
Jain (3): Asyr, Jain, TelZaan
Ash (1): Fien
 
A quick explanation of the updated tally: if we take Gamma's word that his House does not have a kandra, and we know that Elariel has only three people (QC, Araris, Luckat), then the natural conclusion if we are to assume that TelZaan isn't in a Lesser House would be that he is with either House Tuy or Seeris. In either case, therefore, someone is bringing a +1 to the vote on Jain.
 
Make of it what you will.

[Ashiok]

Somebody remind me: what's up with Leftinch?

Is he still gonna play?

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Finch Fain. This is to prompt him to show up and post. If he has a reason to be inactive, fine. For now though, we need everyone we can get.

My other suspicions are Ashette and Jae. Neither is contributing enough to actually help. I'm still trying to decide on my suspicions from everything I caught up on.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Well, I'm not gonna be able to make any more posts in this cycle, but it seems that Wandrin isn't really leaning towards contributing, so my vote is going to be my final decision for today. In the rare event that I can post more this cycle, Wandrin, you should at least contribute something while you are on to say that you are here. We need all the help we can get, so convince me to vote otherwise.

[Lightsworn Panda he/him]

I don't understand how Telzaan got a vote on me. Fine. I'm going to change my vote to Wandrin.

 

Edit: Change of vote and maybe a bit rude. (To my brother)

Edited August 4, 2014 by Lightsworn Panda

[Dellexe he/him]

I'm holding off on voting for now, I may later if I see a need to, but Jae has voting manipulation powers, according to Hoid the informant. Watch for shenanigans.

[Left he/him]

Hey guys, sorry, been busy and it's easier to make a quick meme than to keep up with what's going on and make a long elimination post. I'll try and pop in again during either this day or tonight to talk more.

[Ashiok]

Question: does the kandra count amount the members of the house?

[Aonar he/him]

Egads. Umm... Egads. Something feels very wrong here, but I'm still unable to spend the time figuring out exactly what. 

 

Newan is either A; so inactive the Skaa just don't care, or B; not actually Skaa.

 

Ash isn't totally free of suspicion in my mind, but he's been asking a lot of random questions that his doc-mates could answer easily enough if he had any (by the way, yes kandra are shown in House totals) so I won't be voting for him.

 

Kalden... that comment there made me a touch suspicious of you. Everyone who's been paying attention (and apparently a few who haven't ) know that Jae's a Rioter, and have known since Day Two (if I remember correctly), so you're not adding anything new to the conversation, other than subtly advocating a bandwagon (which is never a good idea).

 

Jain... Gah. I don't know. However... I did get suspicious of you rather early on, and Twei came to your defence more than once in the doc.... Circumstantial, at best, but still noteworthy, I think.

 

Cat is not fully cleared, despite giving away her House powers. It may be that the Skaa decided that they were not a threat, and not worth the suspicion of keeping.

 

Just as a little thing here, if you're a House Lord and used Improved Weaponry last night, I'd be taking a close look at your House-mates, assuming a Mistborn/fourth coinshot didn't hit Nath previously. (Unless you're Jain, in which case, well...). If the Skaa had their own Coinshot, I'd imagine we'd know by now. Either we'd have had another death, or the House Lords would be getting hit like crazy to keep their powers from being used.

 

Another little thing: Would people mind going through their docs and checking to see if anyone reported the same info as Twei did on the second day? We know she didn't go to the informant, so she had to have gotten her info from somewhere (unless Kas/Gamma are Skaa).

 

And that's my (admittedly rather long) two cents. I feel like I'm missing something big here, but I won't have time to figure out what. I should be more active by the next day turn though, (assuming I'm not dead by then).

Edited August 5, 2014 by AonarFaileas

[Dellexe he/him]

Really? *looks back through posts* Oh. I feel foolish. And I don't see how I was trying to start a bandwagon, I didn't even vote for him. I just said what information I got. Oh well.

[luckat she/her]

The evidence I've seen against Wandrin is pretty compelling. I think we need to lynch him to find out his alliance. It will be useful information even if he turns out to not be skaa. But I will be very surprised if he is not skaa.

Regarding the lack of soothing during the last day, maybe they tried to soothe a smoker. Or they're just trying to confuse us.

Kas, if you're going to assume that no lesser houses have kandra, you would also have to assume that Tuy doesn't have one because that is a lesser house plus Asyr and Asyr was the only change in houses. I don't think that is a good assumption because Wyrm already said a lesser house could have one. However, I do suspect that Seeris has the kandra, partly because why else would Jain be house lord when he's been away so much?

Alden, I don't think it's true that we'd know by now if the skaa had a coinshot given steel was poisoned one night and there's only been three nights so far. I think Sylinia dying must mean that they either had access to steel at least one night or used a house power. I wonder why they would leave Meta alone though if they had access to steel. He said he was injured on day two, and he should be healed after last night, so they missed their opportunity there. Maybe they thought Sylinia was a bigger threat for some reason and knew that she was a Thug, or they thought a lurcher was more likely to be on Meta. Otherwise it must have been a case of a house power. Of course, if it was Blanket Soothing, it might have just been bad luck on the part of a noble house lord. I think I'm rambling now....

Also, did Racine ever tell you what the second piece of informant information she had was? I don't think you ever told us. If you know what it was, then that could be a good thing to check against our docs too.

Vote tally:

Jae (1): Ren

Jain (1): Asyr, Jain

Wandrin (5): Hadrian, Mesist, Kassel, Jain, Cat

Ashette (1): Fien

Finch (1): Mailu

Note: Jain didn't actually use green to retract his vote for himself. Also, there might be a Kandra with his vote.

[Kasimir he/him]

Good point, Luckat. I'd forgotten about that. Most likely with Seeris, then, as was my initial assumption.

 

Alright, folks, time to put all my cards on the table as I'd prefer to give people enough time to assess the information as compared to my initial hope of catching Wandrin in a trap. The Informant told me Wandrin is a Soother. This is why I'd appreciate Aonar mentioning if he was actually behind the Day One Soothe, as it would seem rather disingenuous if Wandrin had time to mess with the votes but not to catch up with the goings-on in-thread.

 

More importantly, I have been contacted--through a Tineye I will name Spook--by someone who claims to have access to Genealogy. This person, the Genealogist (Genie, for short) has scanned Wandrin last night and says that Wandrin is skaa.

 

Now, I'm going to lay out these things to consider:

1. I stand by what I earlier said. I am curious to know if Wandrin has been using his Soothing despite inactivity.

 

2. I know the identities of Spook and the Genie. If the lynch reveals that Wandrin is innocent, I will surrender myself, Spook, and the Genie for lynching. In fact, a Housemate has already separately deduced who Spook is, so this is further insurance against my potential skaa-ness.

 

3. Wandrin is also my Housemate. (Not the above-mentioned one.) Therefore, for anyone who is still thinking about it in terms of House, I'm basically turning on a Housemate and pushing him forward for the lynch. That's very much not in my House's interests, but it's in the nobles' interests.

 

4. I think that a Bartbug the Seeker is better pulled off in clearing people who are actually skaa, rather than declaring a noble skaa as that is easily discovered the next day. Nonetheless, it is possible, perhaps, that the skaa have decided to go for a 2-for-1 offer, although I don't see the point in doing so, as they pretty much started the game with a person down on Day Two, thanks to Ren.

[Lightsworn Panda he/him]

Wait what? Kas, are you that Tineye? I'm confused, especially with the Kandra situation. OOOOOHHHH. Yeah! I retract the vote on Jain, me, and stack the double-vote (I think) on Wandrin. I was thinking about Kas for a second.

[Gamma Fiend he/him]

Fien stood off by himself in one of the decorative tents that had been set up by the Host for the night, Lord Ren Gardre, a relatively minor noble in the scheme of politics, but Fien did remember how the young lord's Information had been helpful in finding a skaa just a few nights prior. Maybe he's not as incompetent and timid as he wants us all to think, Fien wondered as he swirled his cup, swishing the wine within it around before taking a sip. After last night's embarrassing spectacle of him falling in the river, he was making sure he didn't get too drunk tonight, even if there was no danger of falling off barges here. 

Lord Ruler, rust that man! Fien raged to himself, still cursing Mesist from the night before. He looked around the open garden, peering through the thin veil of mists, trying to find the horse-peddler, and after a moment he shook his head and chastised himself. I should really know better than trying to look for him, he laughed as he thrust his nose out into the air and started taking large, exaggerated sniffs. Everybody knows that you can smell Lord A'lees before you can see him.

 

And sure enough, after a moment, Fien found Mesist, who was standing in the centre of a large crowd and waving his arms around throwing accusations at the still absent Lord Wandrin. At first Fien found himself speaking up to defend the man, asking people why they haven't given him at least one more chance to defend himself, but then another small lord stepped forward, Kassel Erikell, and he claimed that somebody claimed an informant had declared Wandrin to be a skaa.

Fien groaned. A Skaa, in my own House?! He thought, stupefied. He watched as a few more votes quickly piled against the still silent alleged skaa, and Fien realized his earlier defenses of the man would not look good at all if this turned out wrong.

 

He looked around for a glass of wine, starting to reconsider his position on not getting drunk this evening....

Ah, yes, Wandrin is a memeber of House Urbain, as this lynch looks already pretty confirmed so that will be eventually revealed anyway. Note that earlier, my calling out of Meta for placing a second vote on Wandrin wasn't just defending my team member, he has been rather inactive in there as well, it was just that I would call anybody out for placing a second vote on an inactive just for being inactive at that point. With Kas revealing he's in the same house as Wandrin will also allow people to place his house, if they didn't know already, but basically if Wandrin is a skaa then they already know anyway, and the rest of the nobles knowing is no big deal, I don't think. Of course, if this lynch does come back with Wandrin not being a skaa, then we will need to definitely look at Kas, and this alleged "spook" and "genie". I might as well throw my vote on here just to make sure there's no vote-manipulation shenanigans, but I'm pretty sure the lynch is secured at this point, and there is no reason to withhold a vote or try and get any discussion going on anyone else at the moment

 

Edit: it was Red, I promise you.

Edited August 5, 2014 by Gamma Fiend

[Ashiok]

Also, we've been over this. I don't have any more storming housemates!!! I'm a member of house venture, and Tonul, my lord, already died...

[Left he/him]

I've followed all the reasoning here and it makes sense to me and I don't see any obvious flaws. I'll vote Wandrin as well.

[Metacognition he/him]

Huh, well I was going with the fact that I had already found out that he was a Soother and Alden has admitted to being the other. I say the other, because I highly doubt that there are more than two. Due to this, I'm almost positive that it was him who did the voting manipulation on day 1 and I still don't see any reason for that manipulation other than being Skaa. 

 

But hey, actual confirmation works for me too! My vote will stay where it is. 

[Ashiok]

I don't want to look like I'm bandwagoning, especially if this all goes poorly, but the evedince against red! Wandrin seems pretty compelling...

[Sart he/him]

Huh. That didn't turn out the way I expected. I was going to warn us about not bandwagoning, but there is now overwhelming evidence to support this. So, Wandrin, any last words?

 

Also, Jain, I'm still suspicious of you, but that can wait.

Edited August 5, 2014 by a smart guy

[Ashiok]

Time in round?