Long Game 7: The Annealing of Luthadel

[Kasimir he/him]

Aonar: I have no idea what you're driving at, I'm sorry >> This is what I can reveal: Ren contacted people on only two nights out of four. The first, he referred to as Spook II and then as the Contact. He was going to reveal the identity of his mysterious Contact but then died. The second I do know of, because this was the result of a slightly more open discussion in the doc. He contacted Jain, on the night of his death (i.e. Night 4.)

 

I am not sure what to make of Asyr, and I'm not particularly able to make sense of how he ends up implicated in Ren's death.

 

Edit: Just to clarify the timeline a bit more explicitly, Ren did not contact anyone on Night 1 or on Night 2. He contacted his Contact on Night 3, and Jain on Night 4.

Edited August 8, 2014 by Kasimir

[Lightsworn Panda he/him]

Jain groaned as he tossed and turned in his bed. Recently, he had fallen sick due to some disease with an almost unpronounceable name. It had forced him to stay bedridden until it was over. Which was sad, really, since apparently quite a lot of interesting events had occurred in his absence. And that blasted toy panda was watching him as he suffered from his illness, positively smiling in glee.

 

Huh. So much has happened in my absence. 

[Ashiok]

"Oi! You! Fien! Come with me." Ashette dragged Fien to the top balcony, and said:

"Fien. Thank you very much for the gift. Here's the half that's better suited for you."

She passed over a box with a chunk of limelight (the part that said 'a storming idiot')

"And my gift to you? Why, some house venture Atium coated lead, a bracer made of poisoned steel, and some garish purple and orange striped stained glass for your keep."

She passed him the gifts.

"Well? Whaddya think?"

[Aonar he/him]

After waking up and going over things with a clearer head, some of my conjecture from last night is completely wrong, so I'll probably be holding off from voting Asyr, for now.

 

As a quick question, who all knew that Ren was a Tineye, aside from people in his doc? (And could his other Contact please come forward?) The basic premise behind my theory still works, but it will need to be modified somewhat. 

Edited August 8, 2014 by AonarFaileas

[Sart he/him]

Well, I have to admit it is a little strange that no one in my house has been killed. However, there's an obvious reason for this: both of my housemates are fairly inactive. I assume the Skaa are focusing on major threats, which would explain why my house hasn't been killed yet. Since they haven't figured out who my teammates are yet, I assume that my house is clean. Of course, I could be wrong, but I doubt it for other reasons.

 

I also assume that they killed Rengar because he was a Tineye. However, this is complicated by the fact that he submitted this information to the informant. I received that information last night, and his death verifies it. So, who asked about Rengar, and do we know when he submitted this information?

[Kasimir he/him]

See, Asyr, here's the problem: last I checked, Sylinia was pretty inactive in-thread too. (It might be different in-doc, perhaps.) And while this doesn't say anything one way or another, I do note that up to the point we removed Newan, your House and mine were the two (s)GHs enjoying our unscathed status. I do not believe this to be an accident; I recognise, however, that this is mere conjecture. Indeed, Urbain was long overdue to get hit, in any case.
 
More relevantly to the issue at hand, I believe I can be of a little more assistance in clarifying the timeline. Please note that this is what I have obtained from our discussions in our doc; it may be the case that some of this has been somewhat off due to fog-of-war.
 
Night One: Ren contacted no one. The truth he submitted to the Informant was that he was a member of House Urbain.
Night Two: Ren contacted no one. The truth he submitted to the Informant was his metal.
Night Three: Ren contacted the Contact. [Note that he spun this as having been approached rather than approaching someone, until Newan was removed from our doc.] I do not know what truth he submitted to the Informant (I may have to recheck the doc) and it isn't relevant to the discussion anyway, so I can leave a gap there for now.
Night Four: Ren contacted Jain. Again, I do not know what truth he submitted to the Informant.
Ren dies. (You will be avenged, Tinawesome.)
 
Your period of interest, Asyr, would start from Night Two onwards. There were two different opportunities for Newan [=Wandrin] to have become cognisant of Ren being a Tineye and to have conveyed that information to the other skaa. As for everyone else, I can't rightly gauge this.
 
My current problem is that Ren's death doesn't entirely fit with your picture of the skaa killing the biggest threats. I'd say that Coinshots are probably bigger threats than Tineyes. So are Lurchers. In the same way, I imagine they'd probably like to take down Mistborn.

Edited August 8, 2014 by Kasimir

[Aonar he/him]

I don't really have time for anything fancy here but there are three pieces of information I would like everyone to search for within their docs. Anyone who has gone to the informant and reported receiving this information (especially on particular days) should be considered suspicious.

 

-The fact that Gamma used his metal action on Sylinia. (Day 2 onwards, with emphasis on Day 2)
-The fact that Kas used his metal action on Gamma. (Day 2 onwards, with emphasis on Day 2)
-The fact that Ren is a Tineye. (Day 3 onwards, with emphasis on Day 3)

 

Of course, we cannot know with any sort of surety what information is in a doc where there is only one survivor, so Jain should be automatically a tad suspicious, for the sake of convenience. (Ash shot Racine which makes him unlikely, unless they wanted her to be lynched, but we've already concluded this to be improbable.) 

 

As Wyrm has helpfully marked the beginning of each turn, it shouldn't be too hard to find this stuff. And anyone who claims not to have used their informant action should also be suspicious, as Skaa kills replace the informant action.

 

On that note, would Kas or Fien like to provide Newan's Informant reports so we can search for those, as well?

[Kasimir he/him]

Aonar: My first question is if you've factored in the fact that people could've received the information that Ren is a Tineye on Night Two. In the rules, King specifically states that, "All information is added to the pool at the same time and then information is drawn out afterwards for all players at the same time." Which essentially means that Ren's being a Tineye was information anyone who happened to be looking at Ren on Night Two could've accessed. Of course, since Informant reports get back on Day Three, you were probably cognisant of that, but I thought a clarification might nonetheless be in order.
 
Second, Newan had no Informant reports that I know of. He was extremely inactive within our doc; he would occasionally pop in (perhaps once every two full cycles or so) to say something and then head out again. The most we'd had from him was a conversation lasting approximately five sentences. (This, however, does not preclude him entering the doc while we were offline and reading what was going on.) So I cannot say if he had or hadn't gone to the Informant. A perhaps somewhat unconnected incident on Day Four had been noted by Ren as I was in a different tab: someone anonymous (presumably Newan) had come in and accused him (Ren) of being skaa in an unused colour, and then swiftly deleted the message again.
 
On an unrelated note, Hyrun hasn't really weighed in for a while now, and I believe he's mentioned that he's gotten back. I'd like to hear from him, and I believe I've seen him checking this page earlier.

[Lightsworn Panda he/him]

In his message to me, Ren revealed that he knew an interesting amount about my house via an unnamed contact (including knowledge about my House Power). Sadly, however, he was wrong on a few counts. This is quite suspicious, as I don't think any of my deceased and live House members revealed such delicate information to the Informant. I will quote his message, if it's legal. Is it?

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I'm pretty sure that you can edit the text in a quote, so yeah, it should be legal. If not, Lord Heron will send Ironeyes after you.

[Aonar he/him]

You generally aren't supposed to copy paste from PMs, (I don't believe this rule is set in stone however; it's more up to the GM's discretion) but you can paraphrase as much as you want. And, if my count is right, you don't have any living PC House Members. Of course, that only makes your statement more true.

 

Is there anyone you can think of who may have been able to give Ren the info he had? The only thing I can think of is a House Lord with the Terrisman power. 

 

And for a current vote count:

Asyr (1): Hadrian, Alden

Mailu (1): Mesist

Finch (1): Fien

Hyrun (1): Kassel

Edited August 9, 2014 by AonarFaileas

[Lightsworn Panda he/him]

You had a House members count list? Is that a previous post or an in-House discussion?

[Aonar he/him]

Neither. I don't have a House, remember? You killed my only other House member with the first lynching. My count is all in my personal Lists and on my diagram (well, I've shared most of it with Wyrm, but as the GM, he really isn't the greatest sounding board). I know everyone's House, and a couple of the House Powers (including Genealogy), from a few lucky Informant actions and logical deduction. Of course, I can't be certain of anything that I've deduced, but most of it seems fairly likely.

 

Anyway, can you tell us what Ren told you? If we know what he knew, what he had wrong and how he possibly could have learned it, we could learn some very interesting things about who might have killed Ren. Of course, this is assuming that there is nothing that you wouldn't mind the Skaa knowing.

[Lightsworn Panda he/him]

Well, I couldn't quote the message (since it was deleted), but here's the message:

 

Hello, I am a Tineye from another House. I'd prefer that you keep my identity a secret. Anyhow, I'm fairly certain that you are in a House of one right now, along with a kandra. I have also been informed by a housemate of your House Power (Weaponry). I'd prefer that you not use it.

 

(why does everyone think we have the kandra!?)

[Gamma Fiend he/him]

Because of how most of the information has come out and the assumptions of where the rest of the people belong. But that's all they are is assumptions. But I know in my doc we've been running off of the assumption that you have a kandra. Honestly, I do hope that you don't have the kandra, because with how inconsistent you and your brother's gameplay has been, I'm not too sure how effectively the kandra power has been being used, if it's in your hands.

Either way, at this point in the game, there's been two skaa so far with bones to be fed off of, so whoever has the kandra should hopefully start netting some good information soon that we can really use.

I'd like to call some attention to Jae real quick, though. I haven't seen him posting or active lately, and of course that's not out of the norm for this but, but I have seen him called out a few times but haven't seen him make too many responses from what I can remember.

Also I've been working off of the "Theory of Three", as I'm calling it. We've had 3 Tineyes, one of them being a skaa, so that's a possible starting point for a trend. I want to take a look at our last and third Rioter, I think, if not to at least test the idea if there aren't any better targets right now.
If not the Third Rioter, then if we did have all 3 of them, then I highly doubt we'd have 3 coinshots as well. At least that's where I want to look next, without any other immediate suspects to go after, for now.

[Ashiok]

I'm running on little to no sleep right now

I have my sisters camp visiting day tomorrow...

I won't be on the rest of the cycle, and probably not most of next night cycle either. Please don't kill me...

[Lightsworn Panda he/him]

Well, it's more my brother who has does the erratic playstyle.   

 

Considering how that the kandra could easily net us some information from the dead, and that only the House Lord can use it, that means that a House Lord is Skaa, and is restricting its use. Considering how the other House members would protest against it, I believe the owner of the kandra has to in a Lesser House that has only one member. Namely, House Moraine and Venture (they're lesser houses, right?).

 

Ash, you claimed to be in a House with Tulir, who died. That makes you a House Lord (I think?). Do you have the Kandra?

[Kasimir he/him]

The rules say that a kandra cannot devour the bones of someone lynched/gone to the Inquisitors. This is why we don't have access to the bones of Racine or Newan. It has nothing to do with the thesis that the kandra's owner might or might not be skaa. For all we know, they could be, but this line of reasoning won't get us there.

 

Ash can't have the kandra as he's in a Lesser House with Tulir. Lesser Houses have only two members.

Edited August 9, 2014 by Kasimir

[Gamma Fiend he/him]

Oops, apologies on my misreading (again) the Kandra's rules. I obviously haven't paid much attention to what it can do, as it's irrelevant for me, but I am still almost positive that the Kandra has to belong to House Tuy or Seeris. Unless the player list we have in our doc is completely wrong, which I don't think is that likely. I don't want to say too much and reveal who actually may all belong to what Lesser Houses (in case the skaa still don't know for some reason. but if everyone does say they're okay with it, I will share what the list we have so far is).

But we House Elarial doesn't have the Kandra from how they've rotated their members, because we've seen all Three as House Lords. House Urbain doesn't have one, obviously. And with the two Lesser Houses missing a player each, it can't be either of those, and then like I said, from the rest of the info we have we were able to mostly figure out the lesser houses. 

So it has to be either the last member of House Seeris (the 4th after Jain), or someone in House Tuy.

It would really be helpful if there is someone in the House Seeris Doc who could step forward (if there is one), to help get this figured out. But the fact that nobody has really mentioned that at all yet, makes it a little bit more suspicious. So now the question is if we think Jain is suspicious enough to lynch, and as I believe Hadrian has been so adamant about the entire game, is making sure we kill him off via lynch and trying to prevent the House Power from falling in the skaa hands (if it isn't already), seeing if that's a move that's worth it or not.

I'm still not entirely sure, but it seems like either Asyr or Jain are lying, so we need to figure out who. Like I said though, the list in my Doc could be somewhat inaccurate, but I don't want to share and spill anyone's alleged House list (and roles we have figured out and guessed at) without their permission, of course.

[Aonar he/him]

You should keep better Lists, Jain.
 
To copy-paste my reasoning from the my docs (Word, not Google; don't get too excited. ):
 
We have two situations here, I believe.
 
Asyr has the Kandra, and Jae has been Rioting his votes so that things look normal. Possible.

-Day 2, Asyr voted Finch. I can’t remember if Jae was online, but he could easily have Rioted Asyr, as he doesn’t have to Vote to Riot.

-Day 3, Asyr voted Tonul. Here’s where things get a little weird. Assuming that Asyr is not a Skaa, and wasn’t Soothed by Wandrin, I don’t see how Jae could have Rioted him. If Jae had Rioted, Asyr, we should have been down two votes. If Jae Rioted at random just to cancel his vote, we should have seen something. The only way this could work is if Jae can cancel his own vote. I've already asked Wyrm for a clarification of this matter.
 
Jain has the Kandra, and is lying through his teeth. Probable.

-While there are two scenarios where Asyr could have the Kandra, this still feels more likely to me. Especially in light of a couple key quotes from Jain's brother:
 

I don't understand how Telzaan got a vote on me. Fine. I'm going to change my vote to Wandrin.

Edit: Change of vote and maybe a bit rude. (To my brother)

 

Wait what? Kas, are you that Tineye? I'm confused, especially with the Kandra situation. OOOOOHHHH. Yeah! I retract the vote on Jain, me, and stack the double-vote (I think) on Wandrin. I was thinking about Kas for a second.

 

I still harbour some suspicions towards Asyr, and if Jain is innocent things aren't going to be looking very good for him, but I'd like to see what Jain thinks of this. (If he even gets online in time. Sheesh people. Three hours left and right now we're headed for a no-lynch.)

Edited August 9, 2014 by AonarFaileas

[Wyrmhero he/him]

Just under two hours left today.

[jaelre he/him]

I haven't Rioted anyone yet.

Sorry for the brevity, on my phone right now.

[luckat she/her]

I've been busy, but I should be less busy starting now. My notes are in a rather poor state though, so I'm not sure what to do this cycle. I'll start with a vote tally:

Edit: I put an updated tally below.

There's less than an hour left, and this looks like early in the day. It seems like no one has strong suspicions, and I'm not sure what to make of anything either. If it's true that Jain has the Kandra, then this is basically letting Ash get killed based on his whims, especially if he actually is a smoker and so can't be soothed. At this point, the emotional allomancers (and possibly Mistborn) have all of the power, but I don't think either of the emotional allomancers we know about is skaa, so leaving things like this won't give us much good information. But I don't think I'm in the best position to change things.

Edited August 9, 2014 by luckat

[Kasimir he/him]

Even so, the votes on Day Four are very illuminating. I agree with Gamma that from analysis of the Day Four votes (ten; TelZaan participated), it is clear that the kandra has (with a high degree of certitude but not infallibly) to belong to House Tuy or House Seeris, because most of the people participating in that vote frankly could not (by the rules set out by King) have a kandra.
 
Next point: House powers cannot fall into skaa hands by a night kill. Only a noble night kill transfers powers from the last member of a House to the House of the killer. For lynches, the power is assigned randomly.
 
It looks like Hyrun won't be pulled out of trying to avoid attention by a single vote right now. I'm going to swap my vote to Jain. As the player who has apparently become the spokesperson of 'the Chain' stretching from the Genie to myself, I have been asked to air this strategic suggestion: Jain. The idea is this: Seeris has Improved Weaponry. There's no point in concealing it now, as Jain has kindly pasted the PM from Ren. With Improved Weaponry, a skaa kill can kill a Thug and crunch through a Lurcher's defense. As such, making sure that we retain control of Improved Weaponry--insuring that it is not buffing a skaa--is pretty important.
 
With this mess about who TelZaan belongs to, this becomes an even more muddied issue. In addition, I have three other considerations: I believe we cannot afford a no-lynch at this point in the game, and I think Gamma has a point with his Three Roles Theory. The current roles we know there exist three of are: 1. Coinshots, 2. Tineyes, 3. Rioters, 4. Smokers. (Relevant to this situation as Jain is a Smoker, due to Tonul's testimony of having tried to Riot Jain on Day One.) There is a suggestion for what to do about the Coinshots, and I'll air it by the Night Turn--there's just too little time at the moment. Last, I just hope this will clear up the mud surrounding TelZaan.

[luckat she/her]

The current roles we know there exist three of are: 1. Coinshots, 2. Tineyes, 3. Rioters, 4. Smokers. (Relevant to this situation as Jain is a Smoker, due to Tonul's testimony of having tried to Riot Jain on Day One.)

If that is the only evidence that Jain is a Smoker, then it is also possible that he is a Mistborn who used Copper the first day, but that makes less sense. I agree that no lynch is a bad idea at this point, and Jain is one of the people I trust less this game, and I don't want him to use Weaponry, so I'll vote for him.

Updated tally:

Asyr (1): Hadrian, Alden

Mailu (1): Mesist

Finch (0): Fien

Hyrun (0): Kassel

Jae (1): Fien

Ashette (2): Jain, (TelZaan)

Jain (3): Alden, Kassel, Cat

Edited August 9, 2014 by luckat