Mid-Range Game 2: Servants of Honor

[+Quitecontrary she/her]

If we're being transparent about number of messages received, list me down for zero received, one message sent to Mallaw. Just because I wanted to express my rage for being killed quickly in the last game because of his general evilness let him know that at least I survived my first game so that kind of evens things up a bit for me. 

 

*clap clap* Good job to the Squire or WR who targeted Wurum! That most certainly worked out, and Jeno was a nice surprise.

[Binnut he/him]

Well, that was lucky! One random lynch being a henchman, and no deaths!

I'm actually not completely happy about that vote because of that he had reasons still. I had gone to bed when Maill presented it. At the time of the vote, I wanted to create a tie, because the vote on luckat was still there even after posting, and Jeno had been reading the topic.

Anyway, it did turn out for the best, but I feel a little guilty still.

About messages, I have recieved none and sent two this far.

Now, time to analyze thread...

Edit: Meta, how do you mean the attempt to get you lynched work? A reverse lashing would not remove your vote, and we do actually have one missing kill. The only way I can see it work is if we got one evil squire with full lashing, and the sky breakers gave up one kill for it. Not very probable I think, and hard to plan for. It could be a Windrunner who targeted you with a full lashing and the sky breakers did not use their kill for other reasons.

It is possible that you was hit with both an reverse and a full lashing.

Edited August 19, 2014 by Binnut

[Wyrmhero he/him]

"Sir, the people in the village are praising your miraculous survival. They say the Stormfather himself saved you."

 

Wurum snorted a little. "Miraculous nothing. The Windrunners are to thank for that." How ironic that he would be saved by those who loved the Highstorms more than anyone else.

 

He tried to sit up, but the pain was too much. He gave up and lay back down slowly. "It looks like we have underestimated the Windrunners who are holidaying with us. Or perhaps overestimated the Skybreakers. We killed one of their goons last night as well," he added. "All in all, I would say that I am pleased."

 

"Sir," his bodyguard grimaced a little at the look he got for interrupting, but continued on, "the boys are feeling that you should stop refering to those who serve the Skybreakers as goons. It gets very confusing with us, since that's in our job description."

 

Wurum thought about it, then nodded. "Very well, I suppose. But regardless, this is a surprisingly good result for us. Go and reassure them that my injuries will not stop me from calculating the Highstorms," he said, waving the man away and regretting it immediately. Oh, his wrist hurt when he tried that. It seemed as though the entire left-hand side of his body was in agony where the stone had struck him. It seemed as though he was just lucky to be alive. He should probably burn a prayer glyph at some point.

 

So, let's look at the three interesting things that happened:

 

We lynched a goon henchman, in the form of Jeno. This was surprising, but no-one came close to contesting it, so I don't know if we can get much on this. Basically, I think we can simply say that Tinnub is most likely innocent. I very much doubt this was a ploy, as while an inactive Henchman would be a very good option for a sacrificial soft-confirm, I feel this is negated by the fact that only one person was on it. I feel that if Tinnub was an Eliminator, then someone else would have been on that to 'confirm' their innocence as well.

 

I was attacked. Why would I be attacked? I did say I would die on Cycle 2, for RP reasons alone, so perhaps this was just a prophecy being fulfilled. I think that's unlikely, since I was also protected (unless the Windrunners are very good at second-guessing). So the question here is why would I be singled out instead of Meta, Aonar, Mailliw and Gamma? Perhaps I said something that they didn't like, or something that they did like, conversely.

 

I accused Jain, and defended QC on Cycle 1. It's also important to note that I got a message from Jain last night, in which he claimed to be good again. I got no other messages, if anyone tried to send one to me last night. If someone did, it'd be good for you to say so. Considering how Jain recently posted in LG7 about this fact as well, I'm starting to wonder if he doth protest too much. Would Jain have attacked me for voting for him? Quite possibly. But I am hesitant to say that this would be the reason.

 

Meta was not attacked. In fact, no-one else was attacked. Now, why might this be? It's possible that the Skybreakers wanted to protect someone or steal a message, but I'm not sure about that. Missing a kill this early on is a powerful thing to give up. Perhaps it might be used to teach us that just using a Full Lashing on a player is not enough to softconfirm a Skybreaker, but again, I am hesitant to say that this would be the reason. Meta, why did you expect to receive a message?

 

Meta was also hit by a Full Lashing. This could be done by either a Windrunner, a Squire or a Skybreaker, but he also claims to have been Reverse Lashed this Cycle. It'd be very unlikely that there are two more Henchmen who are both Squires, that a Skybreaker didn't just kill him instead of Lashing him, or that a Henchman and a Squire both used Lashings on him.

 

So the alternative is that Meta is other Skybreaker, and the Full Lashing he got hit with stopped him from using Division. The Reverse Lashing he claims to have been hit by could be misdirection. I would like to hear Metam's depiction of why things happened as they did.

Edited August 19, 2014 by Wyrmhero

[Binnut he/him]

I want to point out that the Skybreakers cannot use a Full lashing. This makes the whole thing even less likely to be a ploy by them. I will wait for an answer from Meta, but I will probably vote for him if things aren't explained.

[Wyrmhero he/him]

You're right. I'd missed that Skybreakers could only use a Reverse Lashing. Thanks for pointing that out.

 

So I guess I just want to know if Meta's reasonings for expecting a message are good, and whether someone claims to have actually Reversed him, though the latter would give away Squires, and Windrunners and Skybreakers certainly wouldn't come forward.

Edited August 19, 2014 by Wyrmhero

[Lightsworn Panda he/him]

I'd just like to pop in and say that only a WR could save Wyrm. Squire Recruiting goes after Lashings, so even if the Squire somehow pre-sent their requests to use their powers on the off chance they're recruited, it still wouldn't have occurred. 

 

Wyrm, only Malliw would know my kind of agony.   

 

Panda RP incoming. Well, once I find time and inspiration to do some.

[Wyrmhero he/him]

Actually, not quite true there, Panda. While Squires recruited on Cycle 2 couldn't have done anything, remember that some were recruited on Cycle 1. There is a 1/3 chance that they each received Basic as their Lashing, so its more than likely that one of them has it. Therefore, its possible that a Squire was able to save me, instead of a Windrunner.

[Binnut he/him]

Jain, you are missing that recruitment was possible the first cycle too, so by now, we have max 4 squires, 2 of them had the ability to use lashings last cycle.

[Gamma Fiend he/him]

The Famed Gamin strolled through the trash littered streets, yawning and stretching as he stomped through the puddles left behind from the previous night's random highstorm in his yellow boots. Most people liked to make the joke of him being able to sleep through a highstorm, and he grinned, knowing just how right they were.

When you lived on the streets for as long as he had, you picked up those kinds of skills.

Rubbing the crusties from his eyes, The Famed Gamin walked into the dim setting of the Eye of the Storm tavern, the savory smell of wonderfully home-cooked food wafting from the kitchen set his stomach rumbling. He frowned and looked down at his empty pockets, cursing the people who didn't have more money for him to steal.

I wonder where that soft-hearted serving lady is at? He wondered, putting on his best puppy-dog face. It was a tried and tested look that worked 80% of the time, 100% of the time. It wasn't his fault that the other 20% of people were impervious to cuteness.

Whistling a tune and filching a roll from the table of the distracted and injured stormwarden's plate, The Famed Gamin walked over to the hearth to warm himself by the fire. Just what exactly does a precocious scamp like me need to do to get some food around here?

[Ashiok]

Two things there Meta...

1. What reason would sky breakers have not to make the second kill?

2. Why would they Reverse lash YOU? you didn't get anything yesterday, and probably wouldn't have gotten anything today...

 

the easiest way to figure out what happened to the second sky breaker action is to have people say how many messages they received, and after that, how many were sent to that person.

[Metacognition he/him]

I believe that I should've received a message basically because I was told so.

 

I think our Windrunners are likely using some form of code and they got their signals crossed, because I was recruited by one Windrunner and hit by a Full Lashing from the other (it could have been the same one, but then those two actions don't make much sense). One of the other people that was recruited said that they sent me a message last cycle and I didn't receive it. So yeah, pretty sure I was supposed to have gotten one. 

 

By all means, go ahead and kill me, if it suits you. I'm probably dead for admitting to this anyway. Just remember, the Skybreakers only have to kill 3 people, not all of us, so my best guess is that they're searching for a way to find those three most likely.

[Wyrmhero he/him]

I believe that I should've received a message basically because I was told so.

 

I think our Windrunners are likely using some form of code and they got their signals crossed, because I was recruited by one Windrunner and hit by a Full Lashing from the other (it could have been the same one, but then those two actions don't make much sense). One of the other people that was recruited said that they sent me a message last cycle and I didn't receive it. So yeah, pretty sure I was supposed to have gotten one. 

 

By all means, go ahead and kill me, if it suits you. I'm probably dead for admitting to this anyway. Just remember, the Skybreakers only have to kill 3 people, not all of us, so my best guess is that they're searching for a way to find those three most likely.

 

You were Squired, Reverse Lashed AND Full Lashed in one Cycle? Interesting. That kind of suggests that in general, you're both trusted and not trusted. If someone Squired said that they sent you a message in the doc, then I am certainly inclined to believe that then. I am still hesitant to believe that the Skybreakers would Reverse Lash you instead of Divide you though. Why do you think they may not have used both kills, if the Full Lashing isn't to blame?

[Metacognition he/him]

If I were the Skybreakers, I probably wouldn't have used it either honestly. It'd just help us narrow down suspects unless they hit the Windrunners or the Truthwatcher. 

In a regular game, sure, not using their double kill would be suicidal, but I think they're hunting. The more of us there are alive, the better chance they have that we'll lynch one of our own, especially since they let Jeno just die without defending him. They're probably looking for something to help them identify the Windrunners instead of just trying to kill us all. At least that's the way I'd do it and since Gamma told people not to send him messages and I said that I hadn't received any, even I figured that I'd at least get one or two messages this last cycle. Seems they figured the same. 

[Binnut he/him]

This is hard!

I trust that someone would tell us if Meta isn't in a Squire, or that it haven’t come up about the message in the doc. Provided that this is true, Meta really must have been hit with both full lashing and recruitment. Regarding the message, we cannot ever verify if it arrived or not that is just trusting Meta’s word or not.

Let's say that all of this is true, there is also the possibility that a squire did the full/reverse lashing, so there is no requirement of the Windrunner's failing in communication even if that could be the case too.

Meta was probably targeted by all these because he is the most experienced in these games, and both threat if evil and beneficial if good.

All of this is a description of the situation, but all that really matters is: Do we believe that the SBs would use only one kill? or did the full lashing on Meta cancel it?

What we could do is to verify if Meta has got any new lashing. Sadly, this could only be done by the squires, and only for the full lashing. And only if there are no evil squire with a full lashing.

A lot of chance in this so it is probably not a good action either. And it might reveal other squires.

[Theorymaker he/him]

Tahrin looked at the two gems that he had gotten back from the gem cutter. Fortunately the gem cutter had had enough time to put the gems outside and get them both infused with Stormlight. Now that he had both gems and both of them infused he would have to find a way to attract the correct spren. Of course Tahrin didn't know what spren he was looking for but the fact that it was a ruby probably meant a firespren was needed because of the essence Spark. So Tahrin took the ruby's copy (the original being too valuable to risk) and went to the fire, only to stop short when he saw someone was already by the fire. Deciding to sit down at a table instead Tahrin hid the ruby inside his coat.

 

It could be that the SBs are alternating Division so there is always two kills since they can't use a lashing twice. Also their plan kind of failed if you only got one message. Though it was dangerous of you to mention it was from another Squire especially if there was a name in the message.

Edited August 19, 2014 by Theorymaker

[Gamma Fiend he/him]

It could be that the SBs are alternating Division so there is always two kills since they can't use a lashing twice. Also their plan kind of failed if you only got one message. Though it was dangerous of you to mention it was from another Squire especially if there was a name in the message.

I don't think Division has a cool down, and can be used every night. That's why we can expect up to 3 deaths per cycle (two kills, one lynch).

So we can either have Meta try and test his claim of becoming a Squire, and have him perform a Lashing that he would have received upson Squireship, but that will mean waiting until the next cycle to do anything, waiting for results.

The same speed type of solution would be to ask one of the Squires or WRs to hit Meta with a Full Lashing again, and see if we only get one kill performed again. This won't prove his Squireship (because I doubt any other Squires will want to come forward in-thread yet), but if we're missing another kill then there's probably a good chance he's a SoB. Although of course the SoBs will then be hip to this plan, and just won't make a second kill, so that sadly won't prove anything.

Then the third possible solution is to just lynch Meta. :/ Obviously the most direct/final approach to this mystery. If he is indeed a Squire, then this would really suck to lose his power he gained. But then again, if he is a SoB as well, then we'd be 2/2 on lynches.

We should obviously have a bit more discussion before we decide to go that route, though, and we should probably hear from a few more people to see what they think.

[Wyrmhero he/him]

"Storms!" The pain was getting worse, rather than better. Wurum's hand was almost permenantly to his side, and he felt as though that was all that was keeping his ribs in place right now. To make things even worse, that petty thief Gamad had stolen some of his food, and he wasn't able to do much about it. Well, not directly. A few of his associates would be along to rough Gamad up a little when he left later. But it was just so disappointing to have to do things like that. It lacked the personal touch, something he usually prided himself on.

 

At least his accusation of the doomsayer seemed to be provoking discussion, which was nice. It was just such a shame that there were some circles that neither he nor his informants were privy to. Though the world was a strange place if a doomsayer like Metam could be recruited like that, over the others here. Perhaps this village just had slim offerings when it came to Squire-material. Sighing, he washed down the remains of his food with some of the tavern's ale before getting out some paper to write on. Even injured as he was, he had a lot of work to do, and not all of it nefarious.

 

I'm not so sure that such a thing works there, Gamma. If we declared that we wanted a Windrunner to Full Lash Meta, then they'd just sacrifice a kill to get Meta killed for free and set us back by a day. At this point, I'm also doubtful that they would skip a kill so easily. While it ensures we have more targets to lynch instead of the real Eliminators, they're skipping over a lot of dangerous players at that small expense. Basically, why would they not kill Gamma or Meta or Aonar or Mailliw, if they had the opportunity?

 

An alternative possibility is if one of the Squires who was recruited on Cycle 1 can come forward and reveal that they Reverse Lashed Meta. That would at least tell us if he was telling the truth about that. Or at least, one of them could confirm in-doc, and Meta could relate this to us. They could easily call him out if he was lying about it not being said, after all, and that would most likely mean that Meta's an Eliminator. Meta is our Squire-spokesperson (Spokesquire? Squireperson?), and so anything that the Squires wish to add anonymously should come through him, since he can't Ruin what they say.

Edited August 19, 2014 by Wyrmhero

[twelfthrootoftwo]

I think it’s safe to assume Meta’s not lying about being a squire, since that would be too easy to call out. Also, some numbers for reference: I get ~45% chance of there being a squire with Full Lashing (FL from here on) (assuming 2 recruits first cycle, and accounting for Jeno and the three other Surgebinders), and 9% for a Henchman with FL (starting with 3 henchmen; it’s about half that for 2).

Scenarios for the FL on Meta, sorted by Meta’s role/alignment:

Skybreaker:
FL, by a WR or Squire, prevents them from using their kill. Here the message did go through, and Meta is lying to make the number of lashings consistent.

No powers/TW:
WR-WR miscommunication - the FL came from a WR. This could be misreading of a code, or simply one not being on between the change of plans and the cycle end. I expect the WR tried to form a broad plan for the first cycle or two while they had their doc, which means one of the two actions was a substantial deviation (I would lean towards this being the FL). None of Meta’s posts last cycle jump out at me as reason for a change of plan like that (anyone disagree?).
WR-Squire miscommunication – the FL was from one of the Squires. No need for a code or change of plan here, just a squire that suspected Meta.

Villager:
SB concern – a henchman squire with FL thought Meta may have been a Surgebinder. They may have had reason to think that, or they may not have had any suspicions and gone for a player where the power would be most dangerous. Or (unlikely) they were worried about the vote on Aladdin.
Setup – This one is contrived, but not as unlikely as, say, the SB Wurum gambit. A henchman, knowing the SB plan to use one RL, receives FL on becoming a squire. They target someone who voted, hoping to set them up as a SB and get them lynched.

 

-----

Something we can do this cycle to figure out what happened is try to find where the lashings went. We should expect a minimum of four and a maximum of six. So far, we have:

Division – Wurum
Basic – Wurum
Full – Metam
Reverse – Metam (claimed)

Picking Basic and Full lashings on most players won’t be possible, but we may be able to find Reverse lashings if we reveal messages sent/received – which some people have already done. I’ll add to this and say I was one of the many people who messaged Mallaw, and I received a message from Lyce (in response to the message I sent last cycle). If we decide to go this track, it would also be useful to know whether there actually were two squires last cycle, to give us a better idea of how many lashings to expect.

-----
 

Basically, why would they not kill Gamma or Meta or Aonar or Mailliw, if they had the opportunity?

I agree that this is strange. It may be that the SB want to leave more targets for the village to lynch, but at the same time they're making it harder for them to find the WR and TW. Collecting a single message is not that likely to identify someone's role. It would make more sense to me to thin out the search field and simultaneously remove known threats before starting to look for unique targets.

[Lightsworn Panda he/him]

The morning air was crisp and sharp, with the fragrant and exotic aromas of a waking town diffused through it. The gravelly sounds of the coals in the blacksmith's forge being stoked, interspersed by the curses of the blacksmith at his apprentices to put more effort into their work. The beautiful spicy aromas of the merchants setting out their various goods in preparation of another day of business. The merry whistling of the messenger boy as he made his rounds. The stirrings of a town waking up was indeed a pleasant scene to behold.

 

Jain groaned as he groggily rubbed his eyes, blearily trying to gather enough determination to sit up from his bed. He'd been trying to get up for the past 10 minutes, but the soft plushy bed that had somehow felt hard and unwelcoming the night before was simply too irresistible. In his years of travelling, Jain had never conquered his weakness of being unable to wake up in the morning. 

 

Something fuzzy and cold fell onto his face. Suddenly shocked awake, Jain thrashed about, clawing at the object that had ensnared his face in a relentless bear hug. Or panda hug. Finally managing to dislodge the toy panda, Jain - finally - sat up and glared at the panda that has somehow managed to fall off the shelf above his head. The panda smirked back at him, its wide grin somehow slightly larger than normal.

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Jain strolled among the hundreds of people thronging the streets. The recent gossip was quite interesting. A man - who was rumored to be a smuggler - by the name of Wurum had managed to incur the wrath of Skybreakers, and had been attacked, but miraculously saved by a figure in blue. The details were unclear - as gossip tended to be - but it appeared that the man had not come out unscathed. With nothing to do, Jain decided to pay the injured man a visit.

 

Jain found the injured smuggler inside the Inn, groaning in agony, half-delirious with pain. Seeing that any conversation would be fruitless, Jain simply left a note, bought a drink and left the Inn. 

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

In the moments of clarity that he occasionally achieved, Wurum found a note pinned above his head. Written in a flowing Shin script, it said:

 

Hey Wurum. Just popping in to say that if I die, I'd like you to have my toy panda.

 

Phew. Literally the longest Panda/Jain RP I've done.

 

So yeah, Wyrm, you have the honor of having the toy panda if I die.

 

EDIT: BLUE

Edited August 20, 2014 by Lightsworn Panda

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Aladdin gets my vote this cycle. His responses just seem very presumptuous and knowing and he feels off to me. Not that that is a guarantee of his Evilness, but it's the most likely in my opinion.

[Aonar he/him]

So what do we know for a fact a happened last cycle? (First rule of espionage; assume nothing. )

 

Known Information:

 

These votes were made:

Lyce (0): Metam Tahrin
Quismet (0): Wurum, Mallaw
Jain (1): Wurum
Jeno (2): Tunnib Tunnib
Serji (0): Gamin
Aladdin (1): Rulit Metam
Kaladen (1):Tunnib
Naihar (1): Mallaw

 

These Lashings were used:

Basic (Wurum)

Full (Metam)

 

These kills were made:

Wurum (Cancelled)

 

Miscellaneous unverifiable info:

 

Metam is a Squire. This would seem to be true, as no one has called him out on this, but remember, he had two votes on him when he revealed this, and no one else has even been suggested as a target. The Squires may simply have decided that they may as well let things roll and not reveal themselves, as it looks like Meta'll be lynched anyway.

 

Metam was Reverse Lashed. We have nothing to go on here. If he was Reverse Lashed, then he must be telling the truth, and probably, (but not definitely) is not a Skybreaker. However, we have nothing to go on here but his word.

 

 

Conclusions, Inferences and Possible Plans of Action: 

So, where do we go from here? 

 

It seems we have two viable plans of action. (I'm discounting the option where we let Meta live with no contingency plan for him being evil, because that's just plain silly.)

 

1: We lynch Meta. This is both rather risky, and debatably the safest course. If Meta is evil, we kill another evil player (and achieve half our win condition) the second lynch. If Meta isn't evil, we lose an experienced player and a Squire.

 

2: We Illuminate Meta. This option is a touch more complex. Here, we first petition the Truthwatcher to Illuminate Meta, and the Squires/Windrunners to Full Lash him, and Basic Lash Wurum. Then (the next cycle), we all message Wurum, and the Truthwatcher Messages him their results. This way, the Skybreakers have a minimal chance of intercepting with Reverse Lashings. I personally like this option the most, as it forces the Skybreakers to play reactively. And if they're reacting to what we're doing, then their actions can be predicted. The have to either not make their second kill to maintain the unintentional deception or clear Meta for us. And if Meta is evil, then they're still effectively down a Skybreaker, as Meta won't be able to preform any actions before he's killed.

 

Anyone have any other thoughts? 

Edited August 20, 2014 by AonarFaileas

[Ashiok]

Truth watcher wouldn't be able to get the results in time for the message. Your plan would take two more cycles...

Another thing that is a problem: I sent a message to Tulir cycle two... I never got my in thread response...

Also regarding what you said mail... Yes I sound presumptuous, it's like my natural state of being. It's really not a good thing and I'm trying to work on it, but it gets worse when I'm tired (which I currently am...

[Tulir he/him]

Apologies, here is your proof: !449539$.  Wasn't very subtle, but here it is.

[Ashiok]

Okay. Perfect. I was slightly worried that there was another Reverse Lashing floating around because that would mean that the squires were messing with stuff...

[Dellexe he/him]

Sorry I've been gone, guys. I just got back from vacation and the last couple days have been kinda hectic. I should be able to get on  more from now on, though.