The Alternate Timelines of Stormlight Archive

[Collecter128]

I have been re-reading Rythm of War and realized something. Spoilers for all of the Stormlight archive so far, I have a theory of some sort. It's sort of half a theory and half an observation.

The Theory: Some people have seen the future, but then the future changed. Ishar saw a future before it changed and is acting on that assumption. Maybe one could use this information to piece together what the original timeline was before it changed. what the other timelines would be like or what Ishar saw. Maybe this will explain Ishar's actions a little bit?

Timelines: 

Original Timeline: A timeline where no-one has seen the future and tried to change it yet. It is unknown what this future would have been like, as Odium has changed a lot of things with his future vision. It really depends on what Odium has used his future vision to do, and we only know about some of his plan in Rhythm of war. I'm going to assume that he might have used this against Honor at some point.

1st Timeline: Odium saw the future and used it bring about his victory. Dalinar becomes his champion and Uritheru falls. Taravangian and Renarin probably die. Not sure what Ishar would be up to in this timeline. Since this is one where he has not seen the future, I don't know if he would still become Tezim. He would still probably be crazy though.

2nd Timeline: Ishar sees the future and acts on it? It is uncertain how much of his actions are based on what he saw, but from what he says many of the things from Timeline 1 are still the same. I assume in this timeline, Ishar succeeds on stealing the Stormfather and then makes to take over Urithiru.

3rd Timeline: Taravanian Writes the Diagram. Taravangian Manages to save a small portion of Roshar from Odium, Kharbranth, but I doubt Odium will keep it that way despite his oath. 

4th Timeline: Renarin sees the Future. This is the timeline from the books where things change enough that many of the things from Timeline 1 are different now. Renarin does not die, and Taravangian sees the things that let him do the things he did in Rhythm of War.

So, I wonder. What else do you think existed in the other timelines besides the one we see in the books? What other things have been changed by future vision I have missed?

[The Sibling she/her]

I'm pretty sure that Renarin saw Jasnah killing him but that didn't happen. I wonder how the books would have changed if Renarin had died there. He hasn't had a huge effect on events so far, but I assume he will be of great importance in the back half, so things probably would have gone pretty badly if he died. 

[alder24]

Future in Cosmere isn't set in stone. There is no "original timeline", only infinite possibilities. The Decisions of every person can change the future, not only those who can see it, but also those who can't - everyone can do something that even Shards didn't predict. Not only Odium sees the future, but also Cultivation and Honor as well, they all can act on what they see and set up plans thousands of years in advance, and others would have trouble spotting that, as they only see an infinite pool of possible futures, splitting more and more because other Shards look at those as well - which all can be wrong. At this point it's a guessing game. Just like Renarin obstructs Odium's future vision, Cultivation does that as well, and Honor did this as well. 

Cultivation set up her own plans against Odium - she met and helped Dalinar, Taravangian and Lift. If Cultivation hadn't helped Dalinar, he would have fallen into Odium's hands in OB. 

1 hour ago, Collecter128 said:

Ishar saw a future before it changed and is acting on that assumption.

What? How? When? Why? Where did this come from? I am asking generously. I haven't seen any hint about Ishar looking into the future.

[Collecter128]

Ah I hadn't thought of all that. 

Well, the reason why I thought he saw the future is that him calling Daninar "Odium's Champion" was kind of weird. When I reread the page I start to think that he might not have. It was just a weird idea I got i my head when I re-read it for the first time. I probably jumped to conclusions.

[Treamayne]

1 hour ago, Collecter128 said:

Ah I hadn't thought of all that. 

Well, the reason why I thought he saw the future is that him calling Daninar "Odium's Champion" was kind of weird. When I reread the page I start to think that he might not have. It was just a weird idea I got i my head when I re-read it for the first time. I probably jumped to conclusions.

Are you referencing the Oathbringer conversation, or the Rhythm of War conversation? Because, in Oathbringer, the only conversation I found from Tezim (Ishar) was (Ch 24):

Spoiler

Navani returned with a single sheet of paper. Dalinar couldn’t read the script on it, but the lines seemed sweeping and grand—imperious.

“ ‘A warning,’ ” Navani read, “ ‘from Tezim the Great, last and first man, Herald of Heralds and bearer of the Oathpact. His grandness, immortality, and power be praised. Lift up your heads and hear, men of the east, of your God’s proclamation.

“ ‘None are Radiant but him. His fury is ignited by your pitiful claims, and your unlawful capture of his holy city is an act of rebellion, depravity, and wickedness. Open your gates, men of the east, to his righteous soldiers and deliver unto him your spoils.

“ ‘Renounce your foolish claims and swear yourselves to him. The judgment of the final storm has come to destroy all men, and only his path will lead to deliverance. He deigns to send you this single mandate, and will not speak it again. Even this is far above what your carnal natures deserve.’ ”

She lowered the paper.

“Wow,” Adrotagia said. “Well, at least it’s clear.”

And there is no reference to being a Champion in there. However, in RoW, we have this (Ch 111):

Spoiler

He walked toward Ishar, Szeth shadowing him on one side, Sigzil on the other. Dalinar had not expected the old Herald to look so strong. Dalinar was used to the frailty of men like Taravangian, but the person before him was a warrior. Though he was outfitted in robes and wearing an ardent’s beard, his forearms and stance clearly indicated he was accustomed to holding a weapon.

“Champion of Odium,” Ishar said in a loud, deep voice, speaking Azish. “It has been a long wait.”

“I am not Odium’s champion,” Dalinar said. “I wish to be your ally in facing him, however.”

“Your lies cannot fool me. I am Tezim, first man, aspect of the Almighty. I alone prepare for the end of the worlds. I should not have ignored your previous messages to me; I see now what you are. What you must be. Only a servant of my enemy could have captured Urithiru, my holy seat.”

“Ishar,” Dalinar said softly. “I know what you are.”

“I am that man no longer,” Ishar said. “I am Herald of Heralds, sole bearer of the Oathpact. I am more than I once was and I will become yet more. I shall absorb your power, Odium, and become a god among gods, Adonalsium reborn.”

Dalinar took a tentative step forward, waving for the others to stay back. “I spoke to Ash,” Dalinar said calmly. “She said to tell you that Taln has returned. He’s hurt, and she pleads for your help in restoring him.”

“Taln…” Ishar said. He adopted a far-off look. “Our sin. Bearer of our agonies…”

“Jezrien is dead, Ishar,” Dalinar said.

So, keep in mind:

1. Ishar is mad as a hatter, even this snippet shows how far he has fallen
2. Ishar (though we don't see it until later in the chapter) already has his Honorblade, and therefore has access to seeing Connections - and Dalinar does have a Connection with Odium (which Odium tried to use to make him his Champion in Oathbringer).
   • It's not a leap to see how Ishar could sense that Connection, and make a delusional leap to the conclusion that best fits his psychosis
3. Ishar is further strained by having been so very wrong in all he tried to do before the coming of the Everstorm, and doing anything he can to avoid that reality
   • Convincing Nale that killing proto-Radiants could somehow avert the True Desolation
   • Guilt over abandoning Taln (seen above - momentarily)
   • Failing in his experiments (whatever they are trying to accomplish - likely similar to Kalak's goals)
   • Ignoring his duty since the Everstorm in preparing Humanity to fight Odium
   • etc.

I can see why you drew the conclusion(s) you did, but it really comes down to Ishar recovering his Honorblade to have access to his Bondsmith powers; then realizing how much they messed up at Aharietiam, and his mental state forcing him to construct a false reality that absolves his guilt and inflates his ego.

 

[Yaganim he/him]

12 hours ago, The Sibling said:

I'm pretty sure that Renarin saw Jasnah killing him but that didn't happen. I wonder how the books would have changed if Renarin had died there. He hasn't had a huge effect on events so far, but I assume he will be of great importance in the back half, so things probably would have gone pretty badly if he died. 

Renarin's death could have prevented Taravangian ascencion because his plan to kill Odium require:

- Odium being unaware of it due to Renarin influence

-Corrupted windspren given to him by Renarin to attract Odium.

So there is at least a positive consequence to Renarin's death. However who know what Rayse could have done if he was still able to efficiently see the future in Row.

 

[alder24]

12 hours ago, Collecter128 said:

Ah I hadn't thought of all that. 

Well, the reason why I thought he saw the future is that him calling Daninar "Odium's Champion" was kind of weird. When I reread the page I start to think that he might not have. It was just a weird idea I got i my head when I re-read it for the first time. I probably jumped to conclusions.

Ishar is mad, but he is also a Bondsmith - just like Dalinar, he can see Connections of other people, and he might have seen Dalinar's Connection to Odium, which is really strong for several reasons (one of them is that Dalinar was meant to be Odium's champion). But more importantly his insane reasoning made him believe that only Odium's champion could reclaim Urithiru, a place Ishar believes belongs to him. Mad Ishar can't be trusted. 

RoW ch 111:

Quote

“Champion of Odium,” Ishar said in a loud, deep voice, speaking Azish. “It has been a long wait.”
“I am not Odium’s champion,” Dalinar said. “I wish to be your ally in facing him, however.”
“Your lies cannot fool me. I am Tezim, first man, aspect of the Almighty. I alone prepare for the end of the worlds. I should not have ignored your previous messages to me; I see now what you are. What you must be. Only a servant of my enemy could have captured Urithiru, my holy seat.”
[...]
“I prepared myself for your lies, champion of Odium,” Ishar said. “I had not realized they would be so … reasonable. Yet you have already done too much to prove who you are. Taking my holy city. Summoning your evil storm. Sending your minions to torment my people. You have corrupted the spren to your side, so you can have false Radiants, but I have discovered your secrets.”
[...]
Ishar touched his hand to his own chest, creating a line of light between him and Dalinar. “I will take this bond to the Stormfather. I will bear it myself. I sense … something odd in you. A Connection to Odium. He sees you as … as the one who will fight against him. This cannot be right. I will take that Connection as well.”

RoW ch 112:

Quote

“Our Connection grows, Dalinar,” Odium said. “Stronger by the day. I can reach you now as if you were one of my own. You should be.”

 

Edit:

9 hours ago, Treamayne said:

• Failing in his experiments (whatever they are trying to accomplish - likely similar to Kalak's goals)

I think the Stormfather might be right about Ishar in OB ch 64:

Quote

Only one, he said with a rumble. I … have seen Ishar. He curses me at night, even as he names himself a god. He seeks death. His own. Perhaps that of every man

 

Edited November 7, 2023 by alder24

[Treamayne]

12 minutes ago, alder24 said:

RoW ch 111:

Spoiler

 I see now what you are. What you must be. Only a servant of my enemy could have captured Urithiru, my holy seat.

 

Also note, it's possible that Ishi was aware that at least one Unmade had made a home in Urithiru. That might have led him to the reasoning that only a servant of Odium could have occupied the tower. 

14 minutes ago, alder24 said:

I think the Stormfather might be right about Ishar in OB ch 64:

Quote

Only one, he said with a rumble. I … have seen Ishar. He curses me at night, even as he names himself a god. He seeks death. His own. Perhaps that of every man

Possible. In light of the experiments of which we saw the aftermath, I took that as a metaphor for him ending his existence as a Herald (or even Cognitive Shadow) and trying to find a way back to a normal body and existence. His madness didn't feel very suicidal to me; but if Stormfather sensed a desire to end his current existence, he might not have realized the true goal. 

Guess we RAFO (hopefully in SA5). 

[Collecter128]

Wow, I can't believe I forgot so much about Ishar. It really does explain the Odium's champion thing well.

[bmcclure7]

On 11/7/2023 at 2:13 PM, Collecter128 said:

Wow, I can't believe I forgot so much about Ishar. It really does explain the Odium's champion thing well.

How?

[NH2316]

On 11/6/2023 at 1:34 PM, Collecter128 said:

Some people have seen the future, but then the future changed. Ishar saw a future before it changed and is acting on that assumption. Maybe one could use this information to piece together what the original timeline was before it changed. what the other timelines would be like or what Ishar saw. Maybe this will explain Ishar's actions a little bit?

 

On 11/6/2023 at 9:46 PM, Treamayne said:

Ishar (though we don't see it until later in the chapter) already has his Honorblade, and therefore has access to seeing Connections - and Dalinar does have a Connection with Odium (which Odium tried to use to make him his Champion in Oathbringer).

• It's not a leap to see how Ishar could sense that Connection, and make a delusional leap to the conclusion that best fits his psychosis

 

This certainly seems more likely than Ishar having seen/visited/gotten confused by alternate timelines.  But... don't bondsmiths (or at least Dalinar) need to establish physical touch to see another persons' full web of Connections (RoW ch.66)? So I don't know if he could see Dalinar's connections here.  That may just be Dalinar, and bondsmith powers are decidedly the most varied between individuals of the order, and Ishar being powered by the Honorblade instead of the Stormfather's bond could mean the difference.

Regardless, I wonder if it's' even simpler than that. The way I read that passage is that Ishar's seemingly boundless paranoia and insanity doesn't require much more than "this dude is living in my house" to jump to  "he must be serving Odium, and he must be his Champion.... because the only way someone could have become a Bondsmith post-Recreance MUST be a pact with the devil, because anyone who isn't me is the devil <insert maniacal crazy laugh>."

As you said, he's mad as a hatter.

On 11/6/2023 at 3:06 PM, alder24 said:

There is no "original timeline", only infinite possibilities. The Decisions of every person can change the future, not only those who can see it, but also those who can't - everyone can do something that even Shards didn't predict. Not only Odium sees the future, but also Cultivation and Honor as well, they all can act on what they see and set up plans thousands of years in advance, and others would have trouble spotting that, as they only see an infinite pool of possible futures, splitting more and more because other Shards look at those as well - which all can be wrong. At this point it's a guessing game. Just like Renarin obstructs Odium's future vision, Cultivation does that as well, and Honor did this as well. 

This got me thinking - How does two Shards both divining the future affect the outcome of the future, especially since...

1. ...some are canonically better at future-scrying than others....

2. ....all are REALLY powerful at it compared to mortals....

3. ....there's only 16 Shards....

...?

To most beings it certainly will seem chaotic....and even to some Shards...but what happens for the Shard who truly is the best at telling futures? When two atium users fight, their abilities to see futures *mostly* cancel one another out because both parties see a positive feedback loop of reactions to possible actions, and reactions to those reactions, etc.  This is because, presumably, both atium users are pretty balanced in investiture, and (again, *mostly*) have similarly-limited processing powers of the mind to interpret and react (and equal and opposite Intent - i.e. survive and kill the other person).  We know the Shards are literally omnipotent (i.e. their Investiture is a fraction of infinity, which is to say, still infinity), but not truly omniscient.  To know a certain future, the Shards have to have Intent to see that part of the otherwise infinite possibilities just like humans do.  The "processing power" component for a Shard is orders of magnitudes greater than baseline humans, so much so that by comparison to a human it's like they are "functionally" omniscient, but its' nevertheless still true that they need to "try"/"want" to know a particular part of the infinitely branching timelines before they *actually* know it and therefore can act to achieve the future they desire.  Moreover, we know some Shards (Cultivation) are simply better at telling the future than others (I've assumed this is due to their variable "processing powers" and inherent Intents, among probably other factors like the Vessel).   So - you have up to 16 entities actively trying to achieve their ideal future, by obtaining predictions of "The" future obtained in parallel, doing it by a process where through their Intent they choose to "mine" finite parts of the theoretically infinite future, having differential power between one another in how comprehensive their finite grasp of the infinite is at any given time, and then all of them reacting to these finite "slices" of infinite future (and reacting, and future telling, and reacting, ad infinitum).  By the atium example, where a balance between parties makes everything even out mostly net-neutral, you could expect the converse should be true here since future seeing power is unbalanced - i.e. whichever being (e.g. Cultivation) can combine infinite Investiture with the largest parallel-processing power to mine possible futures at the fastest/most comprehensive rate possible *should* inevitably always "win".  Specifically, "win" here means that among all the beings reading and acting (and reacting...) on their future-telling to produce their desired future, the best Shard at future telling will by definition collapse all possible futures into ironically just one inevitable "True" future - i.e.  the one they want, which they WILL get, since they're just better at predicting and acting then reacting than everyone else.  Effectively, that single Shard best at telling the future is the only entity for whom the process ISNT chaotic and ISNT wrong, and conversely EVERY vision of the others will ultimately turn out wrong (because they get left several steps behind in the future-telling - acting -  future telling - acting cycle from the GOAT future teller at the top).  

Except.....we don't see evidence yet that things actually work that way. If the best future telling Shard is destined to collapse all futures into their desired one, it should make future-telling fail for all lesser beings, and fail literally every time except for when their desired short or medium term outcomes align with the "Ultimate future-teller's" desired future.  Since that's one option out of infinity, the odds of a future-teller getting ANY prediction right would be infinitesimal. Moreover, it should make that strongest future-telling shard to be invisible to all the other shards in the future, which would be an ironic "tell" that one Shard simply is destined to "Win" (as defined above) - i.e. the other shards would be expected to changes their actions to give up future-telling since they realize its' pointless (they can't keep up with the GOAT).  Maybe we just haven't seen from that "top future-teller" character's point of view (or even met that character...though references to Cultivation being a strong future teller are abundant), and so to us the readers like all the other characters it just looks like chaos.   Or, as would be ironic, maybe the character with the greatest "future-telling" ability in the Cosmere lacks the will to act on that ability (since the inevitability of their "win" depends on an assumption that they are actively using their "scrying" to the fullest extent to guide their actions to a desired future, and moreover doing it constantly until the end of time).  The latter would seem to me like it would just cede "inevitability of the Win" to the next strongest Future-telling Shard who WAS actively trying to steer events to a desired future...possibly again and again until you get to Odium (since we KNOW he's trying to do this)....

Basically, does the above imply Odium "Wins" unless a Shard stronger than he at future telling (e.g. Cultivation?) wants to win?  I don't know my head has started to hurt.

Edited December 13, 2023 by NickH

[alder24]

45 minutes ago, NickH said:

Basically, does the above imply Odium "Wins" unless a Shard stronger than he at future telling (e.g. Cultivation?) wants to win?  I don't know my head has started to hurt.

I'm not gonna pretend that I've followed even half of what you wrote, so let's just say this - Shards see possible futures, but they don't see hearts of men. They don't know what those people truly desire. It's not like Shard A vs Shard B, and Shard B is better so Shard B will always win - Shard B has only some advantage but still might not achieve the desired outcome. Any future sight will cloud the future sight of another Shard - a "weak," human Renarin clouded Odium's future sight enough to make him totally unaware of Szeth&Nightblood's location.

How the future sight works was explained the best by Cultivation - she pushed 3 or 4 people just a little bit, hoping that what she did will make them better people and this will lead to her ultimate goal, but she had no idea if her influence over those people will bear fruits or turn against her. She had only hope.

RoW ch 114:

Quote

“They showed you this possibility, I assume,” Taravangian said, looking at infinity. “But this isn’t nearly as … certain as I imagined it. It shows you things that can happen, but not the hearts of those who act. How did you dare try something like this? How did you know I’d be up to the challenge?”
“I didn’t,” she said. “I couldn’t. You were heading this direction—all I could do was hope that if you succeeded, my gift would work. That I had changed you into someone who could bear this power with honor.”
[...]
Oh, you wonderful creature, he thought. You have no idea what you have done.
He was finally free of the frailties of body and position that had always controlled and defined him. He finally had the freedom to do what he’d desired.
And now, Taravangian was going to save them all.

And here I think Cultivation miscalculated - her gift allowed Taravangian to Ascend to Odium, but changed his heart in the opposite way (or failed to change at all), against her goals - he won't be an "honorable" bearer of Odium. She didn't "win". 

[NH2316]

47 minutes ago, alder24 said:

but they don't see hearts of men

Hmmmm yeah I forgot about this part.  You're right - the point of this exposition by Cultivation clearly seems to be establishing that the unknowable "heart" of man is another key limitation of the way future-sight works (and maybe the biggest limitation)

I guess that just leaves me with more questions though, and a bit of frustration at how vague "heart" is here.  You could read "heart" as meaning the persons' Intent, except that can't be right because even lesser beings burning atium clearly see the other persons' Intent. You could read it too as meaning what a persons' Identity is, since Identity will influence their future actions in a probabilistic way.....yet this too doesn't make sense because if future-sight isn't able to draw inferences about a person's future actions from their identity then it seemingly shouldn't work at all (Identity directly informs a persons' choices under any set of circumstances, and choice is the literal difference between any possible futures, making it seems pretty implicit that future sight has to draw inferences about causality between the two).  With those two possibilities out of the way, I don't know what "hearts of men" would literally mean in this worlds' established rules, at least in any way that makes sense to me for allowing the prediction of possible futures.... the term just feels like vague hand-waving to avoid the problem of giving an omnipotent entity the ability to see the future (i.e. it makes them overpowered).

How overpowered the future sight for a Shard seems like it *should be* bothered me in RoW, because it seems to me there should be no reasonable way a being as powerful as Rayse-Odium could get outplayed by Renarin. Odium's consciousness is otherwise presented as insanely far-reaching (as are most of the shards), being able to see and act in multiple places across space and with a multi-tasking power orders of magnitude greater than any person.  No matter how powerful Renarin is, at the end of the day he's still got the brain of a human, which can only focus on a couple of things at a time and can only act through direct effects on the world (unlike Rayse-Odium, who can act through the singers, spren, and other much more far reaching vectors, and seemingly focus Intent on a large though not limitless number of tasks at once).  

That said, it probably just relates to mechanisms we don't know enough about yet, and the unknowability of the "heart of man" will take on more specific meaning in later books.  There's a WoB out there about the fact that we really haven't been made privy to any character yet through whom we can glean the mechanics of Fortune, and that this is on purpose....so presumably there's more here. 

 

54 minutes ago, alder24 said:

And here I think Cultivation miscalculated - her gift allowed Taravangian to Ascend to Odium, but changed his heart in the opposite way (or failed to change at all), against her goals - he won't be an "honorable" bearer of Odium. She didn't "win". 

Here I agree it seems like she miscalculated, outside the possibility that she's actually playing a much longer game and for some reason Taravangian instead of Rayse as Odium was somehow preferable to her long-term goals (seems highly unlikely based on what we know about Taravangian, and the fact that RoW sets him up as seeing opportunities Rayse did not).  Or maybe it's just due to her Shards' Intent - she cultivates, which implicitly means letting fostering growth into something new and possibly unexpected.

All that said,  I actually seriously question whether Cultivation is *truly* the most powerful Shard at future seeing.  She's been identified, along with Preservation, as one of the strongest....but to my knowledge it's not explicitly been established that she is THE strongest being at future-sight.  Since we also know very little about a lot of different Shards who we either haven't met yet or have only met in limited circumstances....I've generally suspected there's another Shard out there who is stronger than Cultivation in this regard (or, possibly, a non-Shard being like Hoid carrying one of the Dawnshards...since we don't know what all of them do yet and how that interacts with Fortune and the future/futures) .

 

[alder24]

13 hours ago, NickH said:

I guess that just leaves me with more questions though, and a bit of frustration at how vague "heart" is here.  You could read "heart" as meaning the persons' Intent, except that can't be right because even lesser beings burning atium clearly see the other persons' Intent. You could read it too as meaning what a persons' Identity is, since Identity will influence their future actions in a probabilistic way.....yet this too doesn't make sense because if future-sight isn't able to draw inferences about a person's future actions from their identity then it seemingly shouldn't work at all (Identity directly informs a persons' choices under any set of circumstances, and choice is the literal difference between any possible futures, making it seems pretty implicit that future sight has to draw inferences about causality between the two).  With those two possibilities out of the way, I don't know what "hearts of men" would literally mean in this worlds' established rules, at least in any way that makes sense to me for allowing the prediction of possible futures.... the term just feels like vague hand-waving to avoid the problem of giving an omnipotent entity the ability to see the future (i.e. it makes them overpowered).

I think it's their personality, their motivations, who they are inside. Cultivation saw that Taravangina might Ascend to Odium, she pushed him  a little bit, helping him along, hoping that her intervention will change Taravangian into a better man. This failed. She saw choices Taravangian will face, but she didn't see which one he will choose, because she didn't know who he really is.

14 hours ago, NickH said:

How overpowered the future sight for a Shard seems like it *should be* bothered me in RoW, because it seems to me there should be no reasonable way a being as powerful as Rayse-Odium could get outplayed by Renarin.

No Shard, no reading of the future, will show you a clear and certain future. On the close scale, it might, because there are not many variables that need to be accounted for. But the further you reach, the more uncertainty there is, the more the future splits into more futures. Shards probably need to also know what they're looking for, intent matters everywhere. This means a Shard can see thousands of different possible futures, but has no idea which one will come true, because there is so much interference from other factors. Anyone who can see the future as well, will create ripples in their future vision, splitting it even more and making predicting the future even harder. To add even more, a Vessel's mind isn't infinite, they can't comprehend the full scope of their possibly infinite future vision. They will miss some possibilities because their mind simply can't grasp that much at once. 

Therefore no, Odium should not know what's coming for him. He saw there is a chance of getting Dalinar as his champion, he acted on this chance, trying to push him in the correct direction, but he couldn't see what Dalinar is feeling and thinking, that he will become a better man thanks to Cultivation's intervention (or that he always was a better man, which Odium couldn't know - they can't see hearts of the man). The future he saw was very uncertain and his mind probably missed or skipped possibilities of Dalinar refusing to join Odium - the closer it was to the OB battle, the more Odium saw "it's following the path I've seen which will end with Dalinar on my side," the more focused he was on that outcome, missing others. Plus there was a huge interference from Cultivation's future vision, who also acted and pushed Dalinar in another direction, plus Renarin also added a little bit, being always close to Dalinar, clouding Odium's vision and splitting the soon-to-be future even more. Taravangian's Diagram probably also added to this uncertainty. Either way, it means Odium was constantly seeing a tangled web of possible futures, he was focused on one end of one thread, but because it was so tangled, he couldn't see what would happen with certainty, and he might have missed other ends - other outcomes.

Of course, this is all speculation on my part. We don't really know how it looks.

14 hours ago, NickH said:

Odium's consciousness is otherwise presented as insanely far-reaching (as are most of the shards), being able to see and act in multiple places across space and with a multi-tasking power orders of magnitude greater than any person.  

This has little to do with Shard's ability to see the future, this is the result of Shardic power being all over the world. Some Shards are better at reading the future than others, their intent plays a big role in it. Vessel's minds are very expanded, they can reach further and wider, but this also means the future they see will be even more clouded and uncertain. Compared to someone like Renarin, who can see either the really close future, or soon-to-be future, in much narrow scope - so narrow that it mostly shows one possibility, missing everything else.

14 hours ago, NickH said:

All that said,  I actually seriously question whether Cultivation is *truly* the most powerful Shard at future seeing.  She's been identified, along with Preservation, as one of the strongest....but to my knowledge it's not explicitly been established that she is THE strongest being at future-sight.

Mistborn spoilers:

Spoiler

In my opinion Preservation is better than Cultivation. He saw, predicted and planned the entire future thousands of years in advance, and basically removed himself from the chessboards by giving up his mind. Everything fell right as it should have, right as he hoped. Just like Cultivation he didn't see a clear future, only one distant possibility and provide tools for humanity to guide them to this correct outcome, hoping this will be enough for people to do as they should. It worked. At it was all while Ruin corrupted his "gifts" and changed prophecies, influencing Preservation's chosen ones, but it still worked. 

We don't know if Preservation is the best at the future sight, but he's certainly one of the best.

Spoiler

Chaos

How were the Terris Prophecies created in the first place? Every other magic related thing is quite logically explained in terms of Ruin and Preservation, except that one.

Brandon Sanderson

The Terris prophecies were created by Preservation before he attempted his imprisonment. He knew that he wouldn't be able to do much for the world after he did what he did, and he foresaw a LOT of what was to come.

Hero of Ages Q&A - Time Waster's Guide (Oct. 15, 2008)

 

Spoiler

defiantburrito

The Hero of Ages prophecy: For a while it seemed to me that the prophecy was entirely bogus (invented by Ruin as a lure), but it ended up coming true! So my question is, where did the prophecy actually come from? Was it Atium in some form, or something else entirely?

Brandon Sanderson

The religions of Scadrial had a lot of ups and downs. First, you have Ruin and Preservation working together as two gods. Then you have the schism between them, and Preservation betraying Ruin, with Preservation adapting the religion to his own needs and trying to hide in it practices that will keep Ruin imprisoned as long as possible, and then give a chance to defeat him when he escapes. (As Preservation assumes he'll be dead by then.) Finally, you have Ruin corrupting the religions with his influence, trying to figure out what he can twist to his own needs--while missing the hidden layers that Preservation left.

Phantine

Were there a lot of Hero of Ages who ascended beyond the ones we directly saw in the books?

Brandon Sanderson

I wouldn't say so.

/r/books AMA 2015 (July 6, 2015)

 

[NH2316]

On 12/14/2023 at 9:19 AM, alder24 said:

Cultivation saw that Taravangina might Ascend to Odium, she pushed him  a little bit, helping him along, hoping that her intervention will change Taravangian into a better man. This failed. She saw choices Taravangian will face, but she didn't see which one he will choose, because she didn't know who he really is.

On 12/14/2023 at 9:19 AM, alder24 said:

No Shard, no reading of the future, will show you a clear and certain future. On the close scale, it might, because there are not many variables that need to be accounted for. But the further you reach, the more uncertainty there is, the more the future splits into more futures. Shards probably need to also know what they're looking for, intent matters everywhere.

I think you've convinced me.  The (seemingly incorrect) way I've been thinking about the future sight is that its' not just presenting the user with a "Menu" of equally-probable possibilities, it also has to have a second component that helps the user understand the likelihood of each possibility beyond their base-level judgement. i.e. - I'd felt the future sight had to give powerful future-seers the ability to not just know not only the the options but also infer which future was most likely. Like I said above, that would imply the future sight gives a window into peoples' Intents and Identities (or "heart"), since you need to know Intent/Identity to estimate the likelihood of a person making any given choice....  But...

Spoiler

I think my impression of that second possible component (ranking the likelihood of events on the "menu", by gaining supernatural insight into the likelihood of peoples choice) was based on a misunderstanding of how exact Preservation was in orchestrating the events of Mistborn Era 1. Thanks for sharing those WoB explanations. I'd long viewed Preservation's actions as a careful event-by-event manipulation over a 1000+ years to get from Schism to Harmony in a methodically linear manner using his future sight.  As you point out, though, that's not really what Preservation did. It was a lot more just stacking the deck in his favor and hoping for the best....which ended up working out because eventually the right people in the right set of circumstances came around to resolve the schism between Ruin and he, based on the Terris properties and more direct things like the coded-messages in the people who fell "sick" to the mists.

 

Which totally makes sense.  In mistborn, it's' only through hemalurgy that Ruin can get "inside" a persons' mind, and even then it's not perfect.....the inability to know Intent is in fact what allows his downfall.

So....future-sight really is just a "menu" of (from the seer's perspective) equally-possible futures....and the seer has to make their best guesses regarding the choices people will make from nothing more than external observation and conjecture (i.e. as opposed to knowing anything about Intent/Identity/"Heart").  Therefore, the seer has to use decidedly human levels of conjecture from prior observed events to guess at probability of outcomes on that menu:

1. You can with nearly 100% confidence rule out the absurd futures (e.g. Taravangian spontaneously turns into a potted plant), because though *theoretically* possible they are absurd

2. You can with extremely high confidence rule out the highly implausible (e.g. Navani and Lirin collaborate to invent the world's first antipsychotic/mood-stabilizing medications which, along Kaladin achieving breakthroughs in cognitive behavior therapy, allow Ishar to manage his psychosis and thereafter lead a happy and productive life that doesn't involve vivisecting/defiilng corpses and spren....he also takes up yoga).

3. You have to guess for all the rest (the plausible futures) what choices people will make and what futures are likely based on nothing more than your external observation of past actions (Taravangian building hospitals and presenting himself as champion of the sick, Renarin as a seemingly minor player seemingly overshadowed by the rest of his family). You filter those through your own internal biases, and then get extremely imperfect judgements on how to act on your future sight (Cultivation: "This taravangian guy is a really kind grandfatherly soul....he'd be a much better Odium than Rayse", or Odium: "Renarin who? Only the Blackthorn is a threat to me from that family because I only value rage and strength and a capacity for violence").

 

To put a cap on it all, a framework to understanding why future sight is so fallible could be that, while basically every seer will agree on the massive gap in probability between  categories #1 and #2, some seers (by virtue of imperfect knowledge and implicit biases) may disagree on what scenarios fall in #2 vs. #3. Jokes aside about a mental-health revolution on Roshar and Ishar opening a yoga studio, Rayse may see the "Renarin gets the best of me" scenario as equally implausible just because of who Rayse is and what he values (strength through violence, blood lust, hate, defeating ones enemies through overtly masculine notions of strength)....whereas others would correctly conclude that Renarin was arguably the most dangerous Kholin for Rayse, especially if underestimated.

Edited December 15, 2023 by NickH

[Treamayne]

22 hours ago, NickH said:

I think you've convinced me.

11 minutes ago, NickH said:

To put a cap on it all

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Hope that helps.