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Why Idris is doomed with Austrism as its state religion


Nightstar The Bright

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Austrism in its current form teaches against awakening and giving away your breath and while in a medieval setting this isn’t the biggest problem, as Nalthis become more and more modern this will quickly become more and more problematic. 

This is due to how modernisation on Nalthis will go hand in hand with innovation in awakening, fairly quickly awakening will be used in everyone’s life, if indirectly such as through the production of electricity or the purification of water. Idris will not only lack these technologies, but due to there being easy ways using breath, the technologies which we use for these same things will be severely underdeveloped. Due to their refusal to using breath they might also get behind on the markets of the world, as awakening will provide cheaper and faster ways of making products then regular machines. This would result in Idris having no chance to compete outside its own markets, and either a full economic collapse or a self functioning, but expensive, market (assuming they don’t import more then truly necessary).

This all means that at the very least Idris will become technologically inferior, and people will seek out the other nations in the area as life there is much better. This would lead to the population of Idris becoming smaller every year. Another more serious consequence is that of another nation invading. Awakening is already being used in warfare by the time of the manywar, and as awakening improves this role will only become larger, think of self flying aircraft or tanks that can drive and shoot autonomously etc, Idris will be horribly outmatched against a nation with these technologies and more. 

The only future where Idris survives is one without Austrism, or at least the current version of it. Fortunately it is likely that as technology advances Idris will have to change its views on awakening, as ignoring it is simply not viable. 
 

What do you guys think?

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28 minutes ago, Treamayne said:

think Amish still exist in the real world, and similarities abound. 

More later when I have a bit more time to respond.

Now I’m certainly not an expert on the Amish, so please correct me if I say something wrong, but I’m fairly sure that they never held land that was very important, unlike the Idrians who live in a mountain range full of minerals, these mountains also contain the only copper mines in the known world (during the Pahn Kahl rebellion).

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1 hour ago, Nightstar The Bright said:

Austrism in its current form teaches against awakening and giving away your breath and while in a medieval setting this isn’t the biggest problem, as Nalthis become more and more modern this will quickly become more and more problematic. 

This is due to how modernisation on Nalthis will go hand in hand with innovation in awakening, fairly quickly awakening will be used in everyone’s life, if indirectly such as through the production of electricity or the purification of water. Idris will not only lack these technologies, but due to there being easy ways using breath, the technologies which we use for these same things will be severely underdeveloped. Due to their refusal to using breath they might also get behind on the markets of the world, as awakening will provide cheaper and faster ways of making products then regular machines. This would result in Idris having no chance to compete outside its own markets, and either a full economic collapse or a self functioning, but expensive, market (assuming they don’t import more then truly necessary).

This all means that at the very least Idris will become technologically inferior, and people will seek out the other nations in the area as life there is much better. This would lead to the population of Idris becoming smaller every year. Another more serious consequence is that of another nation invading. Awakening is already being used in warfare by the time of the manywar, and as awakening improves this role will only become larger, think of self flying aircraft or tanks that can drive and shoot autonomously etc, Idris will be horribly outmatched against a nation with these technologies and more. 

The only future where Idris survives is one without Austrism, or at least the current version of it. Fortunately it is likely that as technology advances Idris will have to change its views on awakening, as ignoring it is simply not viable. 
 

What do you guys think?

Austre or the Five Visions don't really prohibit the use of Breaths, It's Idrians who believe that Breaths souls of people thus using them should be forbidden. But this version emerged after Manywar.

But overall yes, you are right. Mostly. Idrians are already at disadvantage, with no big population centers, no cities, no access to navigational rivers or seas (likely) and with a small poulation - they won't be able to compete on their own either way in this state. They can compete if they make proper alliances and through them they could acquire new technologies. They are in the best spot for it - Idris is in the middle of everyone, on the trade routes between Hallandren and nations behind mountains. And because Siri is now the wife of Susebron and at some point they both wanted to visit Idris, I speculate that the relations between Idris and Hallandren will soon drastically improve and they might start looking at Breaths in a bit warmer light. But the change is needed in the long term, Idris is too important and they might eventually get dominated, if not militarily, then economically.

However they do have a point in refusing to give up their Breaths - being a Drab worsen your physical and mental health, it can lead to depression and it's generally not a nice thing.

Spoiler

Brandon Sanderson

Vivenna's Thoughts on Being a Drab

A lot of what happened to Vivenna—how she saw the world and how she acted—was influenced by being a Drab. As I've said before, the Hallandren aren't right when they say losing your Breath does nothing to you. Most Drabs struggle with depression, and the fact that they're almost always sick doesn't help either.

And so, Vivenna's time on the streets was artificially made more dreary and terrible than it truly was. Being a Drab, being sick, the shock of being betrayed—these things combined to give you the person you saw in the previous two chapters. It's a way to cut a corner. I wanted Vivenna to feel like she'd been on the streets for months, but for it only to have been a few weeks.

She is able to make her hair change colors again. This is a representation of the fact that she has started to pull out of the nightmare. She's slightly in control of her world again, and the roughest time for her has passed. There's also a clue in that hair, one that Vasher mentions. Because of it, and her heritage, and something very mysterious in the past, every member of the royal line has a fraction of a divine Returned Breath in them. That makes it much easier for them to learn to Awaken than a normal person.

Warbreaker Annotations (Feb. 22, 2011)

 

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1 hour ago, Nightstar The Bright said:
2 hours ago, Treamayne said:

I think Amish still exist in the real world, and similarities abound. 

More later when I have a bit more time to respond.

Now I’m certainly not an expert on the Amish, so please correct me if I say something wrong, but I’m fairly sure that they never held land that was very important, unlike the Idrians who live in a mountain range full of minerals, these mountains also contain the only copper mines in the known world (during the Pahn Kahl rebellion).

Yeah, I knew my thought would take more explanation, but I had food on the stove - hence the discussion prompt about the direction of my thoughts. 

3 hours ago, Nightstar The Bright said:

The only future where Idris survives is one without Austrism, or at least the current version of it. Fortunately it is likely that as technology advances Idris will have to change its views on awakening, as ignoring it is simply not viable. 

Idris, as a separate nation, possibly. Idrians and Austrism, doubtful. As of the end of Warbreaker, we know that:

  • Modern Austrism is a change from their original beliefs
    • Original dogma allowed awakening, but did not revere the Returned (it also did not seem to revile them though)
  • Siri has already discovered how incorrect Idrian Myth is about Awakening
    • Vivenna has too, but she isn't returning to her home
  • Siri and Susebron are possibly establishing a new government (or at least leadership style) for Hallendren
    • After all, the whole point of secrecy around Peacegiver's Treasure has now been fulfilled when Peacegiver (Vasher) came back and bequeathed the treasure and their Commands to Susebron

All of this leads me to beleive that the future of Nalthis may include a reunification for Idris and Hallendren. I would also expect Austrism to splinter - (possibly like Catholic/Protestant - but hopefully not that violent) with some returning to belIefs closer to their original incarnation - while some will remain with their current version of the faith (and that was why I mentioned the Amish - I fully expect religious exclaves to persist in technologically advancing Nalthis even if it causes those communities to remain technologically stagnant). 

Edited by Treamayne
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41 minutes ago, Treamayne said:

Idris, as a separate nation, possibly. Idrians and Austrism, doubtful. As of the end of Warbreaker

It must be said that my point was that without any change in Austrism and the Idrian opinion of awakening the kingdom of Idris would cease to exist. I do agree with your opinion that Austrism is very unlikely to disappear completely, but it will need to change. After 300 years of independence and especially striving to change from the Hallandren the Idrian culture is deeply rooted into these people, and so is insanely unlikely to disappear. No conquest can change this. I do want to say that the Idrians will have to change their opinions about the trading of breaths and awakening.

I also doubt Siri will be able to change much, the hatred of anything Hallandren and awakening is rooted to deep to change in s single lifetime, the process would likely take many years.

53 minutes ago, alder24 said:

They can compete if they make proper alliances and through them they could acquire new technologies. They are in the best spot for it - Idris is in the middle of everyone, on the trade routes between Hallandren and nations behind mountains

In modern times nations don’t really acquire new technologies through alliances, except maybe classified technology (military stuff). Proper alliances would indeed protect them from full scale invasions, though this doesn’t prevent economic collapse/not being able to compete. (Land) Trade routes also matter far less in modern times, though this would still give them some power.

48 minutes ago, alder24 said:

Austre or the Five Visions don't really prohibit the use of Breaths, It's Idrians who believe that Breaths souls of people thus using them should be forbidden.

The coppermind has the following to say about Austrism:

Austrism, as practiced by Idrians, considers Breaths to be intimately linked to human souls. For that reason followers of Austre consider holding the Breaths of others to be a sin, and using them to Awaken to be an even greater sin.

Please let me know if there’s a wob somewhere out there that says the opposite/ if it’s somewhere in the book, or if you simply misunderstood/had something else in your mind.

41 minutes ago, Treamayne said:

All of this leads me to beleive that the future of Nalthis may include a reunification for Idris and Hallendren. I would also expect Austrism to splinter - (possibly like Catholic/Protestant - but hopefully not that violent) with some returning to belIefs closer to their original incarnation - while some will remain with their current version of the faith (and that was why I mentioned the Amish - I fully expect religious exclaves to persist in technologically advancing Nalthis even if it causes those communities to remain technologically stagnant). 

I don’t think it very likely that Hallandren and Idris reunify, they are simply to different, one doesn’t just remove 300 years of hatred and misinformation.

It is likely that Austrism will return to some of its former beliefs, but this will likely take a long time as the hatred for awakening is deeply rooted in Idrian culture. I do also think it likely some religious groups will form worshipping the current form of Austrism.

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24 minutes ago, Nightstar The Bright said:

I also doubt Siri will be able to change much, the hatred of anything Hallandren and awakening is rooted to deep to change in s single lifetime, the process would likely take many years.

I disagree. Susebron is a very nice person, the total opposite of what Idrians believe to be the truth. It would take just a single visit for Idrians to realize how biased and wrongly fearful they are of Hallandren, and they would see that something is wrong with their perception of Hallandren. That's a start. Then add to it the knowledge that Siri is basically the second  most important person in Hallandren and would drive the change of their mind. It would still take many years but the initial spark would be shocking "they aren't that bad as we feared".

And if they heard about Vivenna the Awakener, the hero who saved both Idris and Hallandren from another Manywar. Well, they will have reasons to reconsider their opinion about Awakening.

16 minutes ago, Nightstar The Bright said:

In modern times nations don’t really acquire new technologies through alliances, except maybe classified technology (military stuff). Proper alliances would indeed protect them from full scale invasions, though this doesn’t prevent economic collapse/not being able to compete. (Land) Trade routes also matter far less in modern times, though this would still give them some power.

The exchange of technology still happens but through economics rather than alliances (yes, military stuff is alliances). It takes just one look at North Korea to see the example of extreme economic isolationism. But this won't happen to Idris, they are too valuable and rich in resources, other nations would do everything to develop good relations with them, and they might even protect them by sheer threat of getting involved if someone was thinking of attacking them, like it would have happened if Bluefingers' plot had succeeded:

Spoiler

Brandon Sanderson

Lightsong Thinks about How Hallandren Wouldn't Fall

He's wrong here. If he hadn't intervened and taken responsibility, the God King would have died, and another Manywar would have begun. It would have ended with Hallandren in flames, destroyed by the advancing Idrian coalition, who by then would have gained the secret to creating swords like Nightblood from Yesteel, who is hiding in one of the kingdoms across the mountains and who secretly knows what Vasher did to create the sword. He would have brought his kingdom into the conflict. And the world would have burned.

Warbreaker Annotations (March 21, 2011)

 

Spoiler

Brandon Sanderson

Bluefingers Explains That He Has to Execute Siri

Bluefingers is right when he says that there's a good chance Idris will do better in the war than everyone assumes. Of course, the main reason they'll do better is because of how the Lifeless were launched without support or planning.

If this war were allowed to progress, Idris would be able to draw allies from across the mountains (as I mentioned earlier), and Yesteel's ability to create swords like Nightblood would end with T'Telir falling and then the entire world being cast into chaos and destruction.

Warbreaker Annotations (June 22, 2011)

 

16 minutes ago, Nightstar The Bright said:

The coppermind has the following to say about Austrism:

Quote

Austrism, as practiced by Idrians, considers Breaths to be intimately linked to human souls. For that reason followers of Austre consider holding the Breaths of others to be a sin, and using them to Awaken to be an even greater sin.

Please let me know if there’s a wob somewhere out there that says the opposite/ if it’s somewhere in the book, or if you simply misunderstood/had something else in your mind.

That's why I said Austre, not Austrism practiced by Idrians - I meant that Idrians believe that this is the case but  the Five Visions do not prohibit the use of Awakening and Breaths. Coppermind:

Quote

 

Vivenna later realized that many followers of Austrism took the idea of humility from the five Visions too far, causing them to wrongly condemn Awakening.[4][12]

 

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3 hours ago, Nightstar The Bright said:

It must be said that my point was that without any change in Austrism and the Idrian opinion of awakening the kingdom of Idris would cease to exist.

Understood - that's why I partially agreed in what you quoted (though I am far less definitive than you - since Brandon has many avenues to pursue the story he wants to tell, and there are pathways to Idris remaining as-is while still making sense in context - nothing is definitive).

3 hours ago, Nightstar The Bright said:

After 300 years of independence and especially striving to change from the Hallandren the Idrian culture is deeply rooted into these people, and so is insanely unlikely to disappear.

The coppermind has the following to say about Austrism:

Quote

Austrism, as practiced by Idrians, considers Breaths to be intimately linked to human souls. For that reason followers of Austre consider holding the Breaths of others to be a sin, and using them to Awaken to be an even greater sin.

It is likely that Austrism will return to some of its former beliefs, but this will likely take a long time as the hatred for awakening is deeply rooted in Idrian culture. I do also think it likely some religious groups will form worshipping the current form of Austrism.

I think you (and whoever wrote up that Coppermind page) are severely over-estimating Austrism's influence in Idris. Let's analyze evidence - indications of Austrism:

  • Mab - The cook who ran off to Hallendren, became a courtesan, got suckered into giving away her breath, ran a brothel until finally saving up enough to return to Idris with a chip on her shoulder. Possibly biased
  • Vivenna - Brainwashed 21 year old with a superiority complex that finds her Austrism morals are not as deep as she expected.
  • Parlin - And idrian every-man who seems to have an alternate interpretation of the five visions
    • Most obviously early in Ch 9 when he first dons the green hat - implied to be because the Five Visions teach to not stand out and he interpreted "dress like a Hallendren" to be blending in while some others believe the garish colors are "standing out"
  • Siri - Brainwashed naive youngest sister, who quickly adapts passed her religious morals
  • Fafen - possibly the only truely religious Idrian in the entire book
  • Thame - When life collided with the Visions, he had no problem with travelling down to Hallendren for work, and living amongst "the garish city" 

I think religion is fairly similar all over - and every nation that identifies strongly with a single religion will have a bell curve of adherents - some on the "atheist" end and some on the "fanatic extremist" end, but most are in the middle.

I would also find it hard to beleive there have not been multiple interpretations of the Five Visions over the centuries (Parlin indicates as much) which means there would no universal reaction to Siri's discoveries. I do not think the hatred is nearly as universal as you imply. Mostly it's myth and superstition and misunderstanding about what Awakening is and does. WoB:

Spoiler
Quote

Brandon Sanderson

Idris's Drabness

One thing to realize is that the Idrians' attempts to make their city colorless are more superstition than they are effective. It's much harder to get colors away from an Awakener than the Idrians think. For instance, black is one of the most powerful colors to use for fueling Awakening—but the Idrians don't even consider it a color. Their browns and tans would also work for Awakening.

However, a lot of times, the traditions of a culture don't have much to do with factual reality. The determination to avoid colors grew out of a desire to contrast with Hallandren and their devilish Awakeners. It got taken to the extreme, however, and as the centuries passed, the Idrians grew confused about just what Awakening is and what it can do. Of course, there are some who know—Hallandren isn't that far away. But there's also a lot of rumor and misinformation.

Warbreaker Annotations (July 20, 2010)

Quote

Brandon Sanderson

Vasher casually mentions that the Idrians used to be Awakeners. That's true. Before they left, they were as big into Awakening as anyone else—of course, what he doesn't mention is that Awakening back then was much more new than it is now. It was fresh then, and the Idrians had some very bad experiences with it turning against them. (And what we call Idrians were just one noble house, the Idrian line, those related to the king and his servants.)

Warbreaker Annotations (June 24, 2010)

Quote

Brandon Sanderson

Mab the Cook

If it sounds to you like Mab knows a lot about Awakening and Hallandren, then you've picked up on something. Mab actually used to live in T'Telir. (She was born in Idris, but ran away during her teens.) During her twenties, she was a courtesan of some repute in the city. She had some fairly high-profile clients—so she was more than just a poor, street-corner prostitute. She fell in love with one of the men, however, and he convinced her to give him her Breath. Then he left her.

As a Drab, she had much more trouble finding work. She'd lost a bit of her sparkle, and whatever she'd used to capture the hearts of men, she'd lost that too. She ended up as a madam, running a much poorer whorehouse, using her old contacts and reputation to get clients.

As soon as she made enough, she bought another Breath and returned to Idris, where she got a job in the king's kitchens. To this day, she bears a lot of ill will toward the Hallandren upper crust, and Awakeners in particular.

 

 

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13 hours ago, alder24 said:

I disagree. Susebron is a very nice person, the total opposite of what Idrians believe to be the truth. It would take just a single visit for Idrians to realize how biased and wrongly fearful they are of Hallandren, and they would see that something is wrong with their perception of Hallandren. That's a start. Then add to it the knowledge that Siri is basically the second  most important person in Hallandren and would drive the change of their mind. It would still take many years but the initial spark would be shocking "they aren't that bad as we feared".

Yes, my bad Susebron is a fairly nice person, however I doubt many Idrians, even if they go to Hallandren, get to see him, and they certain wouldn’t get to talk with him, actually seeing what he’s like. So the God King will remain mysterious, though this doesn’t necessarily hinder the Idrians changing their opinions. It does help that Siri is the Queen, though for the far away Idrians this could also  be something bad ‘Hallandren took our princess and corrupted her.’ I also agree with your statement that it would still take years, but that relations will start to improve, helped in part by a common ‘enemy’ (Pahn Kahl). 

 

13 hours ago, alder24 said:

The exchange of technology still happens but through economics rather than alliances (yes, military stuff is alliances). It takes just one look at North Korea to see the example of extreme economic isolationism. But this won't happen to Idris, they are too valuable and rich in resources, other nations would do everything to develop good relations with them, and they might even protect them by sheer threat of getting involved if someone was thinking of attacking them

My bad, technologies are still exchanged via economics, but I don’t think this will help them with their situation (assuming they still condemn awakening). Other nations will seek to improve relations with Idris, but the nation can still be shattered/a civil war can erupt. A lot of real world examples show us that nations that rely upon military aid to survive (I’m talking about issues like civil war etc, not full scale invasions) don’t tend to do very well, and usually collapse after a period of time.

 

13 hours ago, alder24 said:

That's why I said Austre, not Austrism practiced by Idrians - I meant that Idrians believe that this is the case but  the Five Visions do not prohibit the use of Awakening and Breaths.

Yes fair, still though, the Idrians aren’t going to change because someone realises that the five visions don’t actually forbid it, they’re probably going to change because they either have to or because they see that what they belief is simply wrong (a lot of the superstition).

 

11 hours ago, Treamayne said:

Brandon has many avenues to pursue the story he wants to tell, and there are pathways to Idris remaining as-is while still making sense in context - nothing is definitive).

He certainly does, though I disagree that it’s perfectly logical that a super (resource) rich country like Idris just ignores awakening and still does great

 

11 hours ago, Treamayne said:

I think you (and whoever wrote up that Coppermind page) are severely over-estimating Austrism's influence in Idris. Let's analyze evidence

Fair point, though the constant reactions of fear and hatred when talking about Hallandren ( at least early in the book) do enhance this feeling. It’s very possible that we over estimate it however, as we only really have 5 ‘fearful’ chapters like this. 

 

11 hours ago, Treamayne said:

I think religion is fairly similar all over - and every nation that identifies strongly with a single religion will have a bell curve of adherents - some on the "atheist" end and some on the "fanatic extremist" end, but most are in the middle.

I would also find it hard to beleive there have not been multiple interpretations of the Five Visions over the centuries (Parlin indicates as much) which means there would no universal reaction to Siri's discoveries. I do not think the hatred is nearly as universal as you imply. Mostly it's myth and superstition and misunderstanding about what Awakening is and does.

Yeah, I agree, religions do tend to have a wide range of adherents. 
 

there probably have been multiple interpretations and the hatred might very well not be as deep as I think, as said above we really only have a couple chapters of Idris.

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59 minutes ago, Nightstar The Bright said:

Yes, my bad Susebron is a fairly nice person, however I doubt many Idrians, even if they go to Hallandren, get to see him, and they certain wouldn’t get to talk with him, actually seeing what he’s like. So the God King will remain mysterious, though this doesn’t necessarily hinder the Idrians changing their opinions. It does help that Siri is the Queen, though for the far away Idrians this could also  be something bad ‘Hallandren took our princess and corrupted her.’ I also agree with your statement that it would still take years, but that relations will start to improve, helped in part by a common ‘enemy’ (Pahn Kahl). 

Susebron already walked through the city to Awaken Kalad's Phantoms, Susebron might want to become a more visible and active ruler as he doesn't like being locked inside. Plus this isn't what I'm talking about. Susebron is fascinated by mountains and wants to visit Idris to see Siri's home. I find it very likely that one day they will both travel to Idris, maybe very soon to discuss the recent rebellion, and that will be the time for Idrian to see and meet the God-King, to realize he isn't that bad. 

 

 

I thought more about this topic and now I think that Idris will be fine in the future even if they remain strongly attached to their religion and culture. Why? Because of their natural resources - Idris has the only known copper mines in the world, and copper is the backbone of modern technology. Another reason is that trade passages through Idris are the only reliable way to trade with the northern countries - which strongly excludes that in the future this won't be important or they would find another way to trade with them, like by the sea (as if that was a possibility they would do that already). 

In Warbreaker Idris already had friendly relations with northern countries, they were willing to defend them against Hallandren's aggression. That's one side of their border being already secured. Now Susebron and Siri rule over Hallandren, the plot to start another Manywar was foiled, and even before this, the idea of war with Idris was very unpopular in Hallandren - because trading with northern countries provides enormous income to Hallandren and cutting this off could lead to full economic collapse. Moreover Hallandren got what they wanted - the legitimacy of their monarchy is confirmed and secured because of Siri. This grants Idris the security from every side - Idris borders are secure for now. 

Because of Siri and Susebron, the relations between Idris and Hallandren will get warmer, maybe not outright friendly, but definitely warmer and better. This means that Idris can establish beneficial trade deals with their neighbors which would further improve their economic status and security. If in the future, one of the neighboring countries decided to be more aggressive, then Idris would have an easy time to get military support from their trade partners as they would risk losing their valuable trading agreements and their access to goods like copper or other minerals. Just like when Hallandren wanted to attack and others stood in Idris' defense, the same would happen in the future with any potential aggression. Hallandren would definitely stand with Idris because they are so dependent on those trade routes through mountains.

Idris can thus use their trading routes and resources as the bargaining chip not only to stay alive, but to prosper, grow and make friends even with heretics of T'Telir without changing their religious beliefs or their opinion about Awakening. They can invent new technologies on their own or just trade them - even if Awakened technology would be prohibited. Once electricity is invented, Idris can become the richest country in the whole world, because of their copper mines.

Moreover, let's not underestimate the defensive value of mountains. Idris can easily turn their entire nation into one, giant superfortress, that would just scare off any potential aggression for good. 

I think right now Idris has everything they need to secure their position for a very long time. Because they are the only known place on Nalthis where copper could be mined, once electricity is invented, they could become economical power as everybody on Nalthis will be dependent on Idris.

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4 hours ago, alder24 said:

Susebron already walked through the city to Awaken Kalad's Phantoms, Susebron might want to become a more visible and active ruler as he doesn't like being locked inside. Plus this isn't what I'm talking about. Susebron is fascinated by mountains and wants to visit Idris to see Siri's home. I find it very likely that one day they will both travel to Idris, maybe very soon to discuss the recent rebellion, and that will be the time for Idrian to see and meet the God-King, to realize he isn't that bad

Yes he likely will be more visible, but he won’t just stop to talk to random people (except maybe on very rare occasions), he’s still a king and has his duties. You are right that he’ll likely travel to Idris soon, and the people will see him, but the common people probably wouldn’t talk to him super much.

 

4 hours ago, alder24 said:

I thought more about this topic and now I think that Idris will be fine in the future even if they remain strongly attached to their religion and culture. Why? Because of their natural resources - Idris has the only known copper mines in the world, and copper is the backbone of modern technology. Another reason is that trade passages through Idris are the only reliable way to trade with the northern countries - which strongly excludes that in the future this won't be important or they would find another way to trade with them, like by the sea (as if that was a possibility they would do that already

I think you’ve convinced me, although I do still think it’s a possibility that Idris falls, and Idris will never reach truly great heights without awakening, it’s a real possibility that Idris survives, and even thrives. 
 

I must say however that Idris contains the only known copper mines, so Nalthis likely won’t be completely dependent upon them. Nice discussion though, you made me see a few things more clearly, thanks for that.

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