Mid-Range Game 67: 'Twas the Night Before SA5

[Aeoryi she/her]

Just now, Kasimir said:

Yes Mr Sanderson sir, okay

slep well ThreadPMBro

Oh Neil you asked. It's uh, a meme thing that emerged from I think LG91 and MR56 as a combination. PMs were generally locked in LG91 so players used spoiler boxes to send each other PMs and pretended they were extremely private. And it just caught on as a meme. MR56 was blackout and flipless and also no PMs so Aman and I went kayana and turned the thread into our personal PM space and bounced thoughts off each other. So yeah.

That was silho right? In LG91?

[Cash67 Where’s/Perry]

3 hours ago, Winnie the Pookla said:

I don't think I ever got a response about your comment about Ash last cycle, would still like to hear from you about that.

*proceeds to fly under the radar*

I CANT READ DANG IT. 

And yeah I’ve been lurking. Time to eat and go to sleep. Will do reads tomorrow. 

[neil the beguiled]

8 hours ago, Ookla the Raveness said:

That was not the flip I was hopping for >>

where are you looking now?

7 hours ago, Ookla the Rich said:

Well shoot. 
 

*proceeds to poke vote The Wandering Wizard as they are the only one left alive who voted for the village execution*
 

 

smh my head you forgot one-

7 hours ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

Araris

I'll get to why later 

-seems youre not the only one to notice though? microreading not e/e with each other but meh

5 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Kas: "tbh I'll go sleep."
Kas: "I've been working all night."
Kas: "Besides, how bad can it get—"
Kas:

  Reveal hidden contents

1. Coffeecat while I process whatever happened.

2. Sorry Neil, reply later - I'm running off less than two hours of sleep for RL reasons. Want to get back when I'm in better shape.

3. @Ashbringer - you're my NKA guy. What do you have for us?

hahhhhhhh. no worries i may also take a while^^, i think im also gonna take a look both over vote stuff and NKA in the morning (*cracks knuckles* i love NKA <333)

5 hours ago, Winnie the Pookla said:

I don't think I ever got a response about your comment about Ash last cycle, would still like to hear from you about that.

*proceeds to fly under the radar*

Winnie the Pookla 

so that you dont fall under my radar : P

 

 

5 hours ago, Coffeecat said:

Shoot this is bad, four innocents fine already. Something has to be done about this... If I only knew what.

For now I'm gonna put a vote on the wandering wizard for now, I'm probably 99% likely gonna change later, but for now I'm putting my vote there for now because they did vote for archer, although that is understandable.

four? also why not pressure (pookla and) aman and I for voting a villager too (even if not the final wagon)

5 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Both non-Wizard!Ravens dying C1 is a thing that happened. Don't know what to make of it tbh

do you think theres a connection there or what? whats the point of this?

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Do you believe the kill orders took a potentially-chaotic EoD into account?

Specifically I'm curious whether you hypothesise there was a hasty switch off Archer from someone as EoD went into flux.

seeing as the person i was voting ended up being a kill at night i think that leands a bit of credence to aman tbh- i kinda wonder if the reason nobody swaapped onto them there was bc of a sent kill and the elims didnt wanna vote their kill target? esp as there were quite a few ppl then who could have plausibly seen my request to switch but didnt? id need to look over eod but not the greatest look for raveness/ash/devo

4 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Didn't want Archer dead +  didn't like your voting for JNV just because Kas did.

Landed did say he wouldn't be shocked if he was killed. Jedi is a stranger kill since people were voting for them. More likely the SK kill.

eh actually idm this- aeoryi's sheeping wrt kas (in a blinder sense) pinging me as well, tho... idk i dunno what to think exactly with those kills. and... maybe? i dunno. i think id need to actually get to NKA but atm i think its more likely the elim kill

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

  Aman calls himself the King of Fake Roleclaims for a reason. I'd add a PhD in Reaction Tests to his qualifications and am sitting here, sipping my tea and smiling at the thought of potential Elim consternation about who @Amanuensis is going to protect each cycle while they can't push him out in the exe.

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Yeah. This is where I really need to re-read to get a baseline of Ravenclaw again, because, suffice to say, I struggle with where to pitch Ravenclaw tbh. They are actually fairly new here, and while they have made good plays on occasion, I think it's necessary to control for their inexperience. Which, okay, yes, I've said I should do the re-read last cycle, just had some time/energy issues. I'll try to get down to it by tomorrow.

I do it on occasion to diversify. My main problem tbh is that I'm a vote analyst by inclination - I'm actively bad with post reads/analysis, which is why I struggle with Aeo in ways you aren't. I use meta as a crutch and have been trying to learn to get better with post reads, tone/vibe reads etc because otherwise I can't really engage with the game until C2 and that's not really ideal for Village.

I don't disagree about manipulated wagonomics FWIW but for me it's just about self-correcting over time and with info to correct false assumptions/projections about the votestate.

I implied this but to say it explicitly: part of the 'welcome new to the forum players' schtick is that there's a powerful social convention against killing new and returning players, to let them get back into the community and have fun. So you were never in danger N1 at least.

That's it from me quotewall-wise - I want to do vote analysis and I'm kind of low on energy today due to sleep deprivation so I'm hoping to do less wallposts and more contemporary engagement. Sorry about my wet sock energy. We all have RL  

ah icic. i kinda dig that tbh, it kinda forces elims to either risk it and kill you as a VT or play the wifom game.

well good thing you now dont need to reread raven as a vote candidate! bad thing is you need to reread raven as a kill  target. lol. also no worries, youre not the only one with energy/time problems ;_;

its definitly something to nkeep in mind and have as a skill, but its also nebulous and ive seen. a very amusing 6 person pure wagon on town. i think my main wheelhouse is a mix reaction testing and #for science, and kill analysis. i dabble into vote analysis a bit but its not smth im too familiar with (its. rlly hard on chat mafia to analyse tbh). def get that though, sounds like youre a much better late game player then

also xD that quote out of context jumpscared me i was so confused seeing it bc im enjoying my time here ^^^ but thats nice to know : D (maybe the fr mafia people are just mean, hmph (silly))

 

 

4 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

11/16 votes total. Kind of a meh D1, but that’s partly my fault. Not sure what the mindset for the SK kill was for either Raven, and same for the elims and the other, beyond a low-info shot. Aeo wagon didn’t form to save e!Archer, but maybe could have to save e!Ash, I haven’t looked at the timing and hope someone else will cause I’m lazy  Am slightly tinfoiling Neil since Ravenclaw died. Could see the SK or an elim killing the same person they vote to self-distance. It’s a fun play

low info shot? do you mean to kill for... being unstanced? considering aeoryi self voted to save ash im not rlly sure what to think of either wagon atm. VCA is for nerds (im a nerd, just a tired one.) and sure, talk to me about it. i can give you self meta you can ignore if you want. "its a fun play" said by someone who also voted raven doesnt inspire much confidence though.

why did you end up joining me on raven anyways?

 

3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Yes Mr Sanderson sir, okay

slep well ThreadPMBro

Oh Neil you asked. It's uh, a meme thing that emerged from I think LG91 and MR56 as a combination. PMs were generally locked in LG91 so players used spoiler boxes to send each other PMs and pretended they were extremely private. And it just caught on as a meme. MR56 was blackout and flipless and also no PMs so Aman and I went kayana and turned the thread into our personal PM space and bounced thoughts off each other. So yeah.

oh i see.  idt ive ever played a game that allowed PMs out of game ^^ are others like. actually not allowed to open them? or is that meming ?

 

i think my plans for later are

1 nka my beloved

2 vca my beloathed

3 collect my thoughts on the players i dont have very big opinions on, and work through devo

4 secret fourth thing

 

if anybodys here for some real time maybe i have a bit of sleepy brain acc ^^

 

  EDIT:
actually, kasmir, question, why is coffee cat your immediate c2 vote there?

 

ALSO IM a fool.

5 dont let winnie the poohkla slip under my radar.

 

EDIT2:

im ngl i may have realized in my sleepy tiredness i may have confused one raven for another in here but idk which :wowee:. im so tired.

Edited December 14, 2023 by neil the beguiled

[Kasimir he/him]

23 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

oh i see.  idt ive ever played a game that allowed PMs out of game ^^ are others like. actually not allowed to open them? or is that meming ?

It's memeing. You absolutely should not put anything in there you aren't prepared for people to open

23 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

if anybodys here for some real time maybe i have a bit of sleepy brain acc ^^

I'm down for that. Working on the vote analysis but I've saved it in my GM PM to avoid last cycle's disaster so we're good.

23 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

well good thing you now dont need to reread raven as a vote candidate! bad thing is you need to reread raven as a kill  target. lol. also no worries, youre not the only one with energy/time problems ;_;

....I need more sleep >> Okay, yeah, I'll...take it.

23 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

low info shot? do you mean to kill for... being unstanced?

Yeah. Okay, some context. NKA is done very rarely here. Ash is the best at it, which is why I @ him. I trust him at it over me, and he and I both converged on Devo as a suspect in the last MR. (I'm sure Aeo or Mat are just dying to say again that Aeo made the kill choice, which is true, but Ash's analysis still found Devo and Mat. I only found Devo via NKA.)

The two main kill typologies you'll see are what I call noise/control kills (e.g. taking out me or Archer) and low info kills (i.e. taking out players who've said or interacted little so that there's not much you can work on for their death.) There's a third one which appears but more rarely, e.g. fear/threat kill. Which is what it says on the tin. It's more rare now because there's a bit of an understanding in the community that we try to avoid doing too many fear/threat kills - Aman used to keep dying so early he couldn't really get into a game. (I'm bracketing other issues Aman faced - they're not relevant, I just want to acknowledge I'm aware the meta hasn't always been kind to Aman.)

23 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

its definitly something to nkeep in mind and have as a skill, but its also nebulous and ive seen. a very amusing 6 person pure wagon on town. i think my main wheelhouse is a mix reaction testing and #for science, and kill analysis. i dabble into vote analysis a bit but its not smth im too familiar with (its. rlly hard on chat mafia to analyse tbh). def get that though, sounds like youre a much better late game player then

Okay, to be honest, that's a fascinating set of skills to have  I'd like to be better at those things, but unfortunately I get the best results from vote analysis, so I guess that's what I'm stuck with.

Yeah - I think I've said this before in a couple of out-of-game settings, but the thing players forget is that I'm not the person to go to for god reads. It's just that if I'm Village and you don't kill me by lategame, I'll probably correct for my mistakes by then. I'm not in it to get it right from D1, I'm just in it to revise my beliefs appropriately where possible. (Feel free to ignore it, I'd say less self meta, more just acknowledgement of my weaknesses as a player.)

---

"Sia lah, it's not a game," Kasim said, grimly. The other SE players in a circle didn't really seem to care. "It's your life and mine."

And yet he was here, for all the good it would do. What did it make him? A fool, Kasim thought, bitterly. A fool who apparently thought all he needed was words to convince the others. Convince them to what? Get out. Get help. Try to recce, or link up with one of the groups trying to break their way out and get help.

They needed police. They needed actual professionals, not the pretense that some game they'd played a few times over the years on the Internet was going to help them. You thought you knew the others, maybe. But faces were a lot harder than words on a screen. Names on a screen. He'd never known Elandera, but she was apparently one of them and dead.

Maybe that was where it came from, he thought. You had to step up, if no one else did. The note on Elandera...

He didn't recognise the print. Didn't think anyone did. Whoever it was, it was planned. Coordinated.

How the hell did a bunch of bloody Internet mafia nerds stymie a whole con? His mind whirled.

Edited to add:

23 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

actually, kasmir, question, why is coffee cat your immediate c2 vote there?

Several factors. No time/bandwidth to process/do EoD results. For context, < 2 hours of sleep so brain was screaming NOPE at any attempt to process anything new so I ran off last cycle thoughts, mostly. Could I just revote JNV? Sure. Would that be constructive? No. I was already rethinking Devo. And I remembered that a lot of the time I was reading the thread, I saw Coffee/Silber was there as well, and I remembered how fast Silber responded to the last few pings, indicating again they are there and actively watching. All of that seemed like a player who was just lurking but not wanting to get involved and it feels like a good under-the-radar place to pressure.

Edited December 14, 2023 by Kasimir

[neil the beguiled]

(im not quoting that 2 respond bc im trying to pick up posts from the NKs LOL)

okok swag swag. ill make sure to peer at all yalls secrets then >:3

ah yeah, that sort of thing makes sense. i think looking at raven (uhm the one with a raven as the icon atm) the maijn thing  is that they mentioned having less time c1 and more c2 which makes me feel like it could be some sort of "potential kill" (as opposed to a kinetic kill???? lol [silly mode]). which is making me feel like my analysis may not be that helpful bc i dont know ppl here who would be more afraid of that. whcih leans more of a threat kill (side note i think with that id call aman a SPK [strong player kill] rather than a threat kill but im kinda bouncing along thoughts of how n0kills in chat games i play tend to be killing off people who *would* find the mafia if they were alive, even if they arent otherwise a strong player)

chat mafia is quick paced xso uh,m its a lot of reactions xD. i mean i def struggle at later game so idt the way you play is like. bad at all, we're both just. wildly different skillsets. late game feels more like a chore to me past d2 ;_;

forgive any typoes here i... cant be bothered. also i asked in ediot of prior post abt why cookie vote immediately, onions?

 

EDIT:
ninja'd xD. ill look that over once i finish compiling quotes 1 sec

 

Edited December 14, 2023 by neil the beguiled

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, neil the beguiled said:

forgive any typoes here i... cant be bothered. also i asked in ediot of prior post abt why cookie vote immediately, onions?

Just saw the edit, edited into my post unfortunately

I'll recopy for ease of reference:

Quote

Several factors. No time/bandwidth to process/do EoD results. For context, < 2 hours of sleep so brain was screaming NOPE at any attempt to process anything new so I ran off last cycle thoughts, mostly. Could I just revote JNV? Sure. Would that be constructive? No. I was already rethinking Devo. And I remembered that a lot of the time I was reading the thread, I saw Coffee/Silber was there as well, and I remembered how fast Silber responded to the last few pings, indicating again they are there and actively watching. All of that seemed like a player who was just lurking but not wanting to get involved and it feels like a good under-the-radar place to pressure.

2 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

chat mafia is quick paced xso uh,m its a lot of reactions xD. i mean i def struggle at later game so idt the way you play is like. bad at all, we're both just. wildly different skillsets. late game feels more like a chore to me past d2 ;_;

Well, that's the point of having a Village with varied skillsets, right? We cover each others' weaknesses. I think I'd die in chat mafia, one minute mafia with Aman and Stick and a bunch of others already killed me because my brain just goes ???? and empties out

3 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

ah yeah, that sort of thing makes sense. i think looking at raven (uhm the one with a raven as the icon atm) the maijn thing  is that they mentioned having less time c1 and more c2 which makes me feel like it could be some sort of "potential kill" (as opposed to a kinetic kill???? lol [silly mode]). which is making me feel like my analysis may not be that helpful bc i dont know ppl here who would be more afraid of that. whcih leans more of a threat kill (side note i think with that id call aman a SPK [strong player kill] rather than a threat kill but im kinda bouncing along thoughts of how n0kills in chat games i play tend to be killing off people who *would* find the mafia if they were alive, even if they arent otherwise a strong player)

Raven's really new and really unlucky actually. They keep getting N1ed in direct violation of new player protection. To me, it's definitely a low info kill for Raven, and I think unlikely Raven would die soon, so it's low info + safe I suppose (i.e. if you had to park a kill and go), but Ravenclaw interests me because Ravenclaw was on the lam for part of the cycle, which is a headspace I'm trying to get into - why make that shot? And maf or SK?

I am trying to be diplomatic here: Raven's getting used to the idea that voting off the bat isn't itself sus. It's fine, we all start somewhere, but I actually kind of don't feel that fits the profile of even a potential kill, as phrased.

[neil the beguiled]

 

oh ive cursed myself. (new message to respond to. posts for analysis here.) i think my main thing to glean here was 1, suspicion thrown on devo, but also 2 a sort of frame of mind of being "a wild card" which to me reads more like my sort of stated potential kill as opposed to a direct kill for a concrete reasoning. hm. ill go compile ravenclaws quotes after. if we think this is a low info kill then im not sure id know who'd make those sorts of kills (ig thats the point hmph), if not theres a fos on devo. 

Spoiler

9 hours ago, Ookla of Ravens said:

Archer

9 hours ago, Ookla of Ravens said:

point taken, im just not gonna vote.

13 hours ago, Ookla of Ravens said:

if im killed within the next few cycles, i wouldnt be shocked.  i also wouldnt be shocked if i was kill this cycle. get the wildcard out of the way.

14 hours ago, Ookla of Ravens said:

Ive got finals coming up. i would be more engaged if i could.

14 hours ago, Ookla of Ravens said:

I think i would need this cycle and the next to start getting something.

On 12/12/2023 at 11:00 AM, Ookla of Ravens said:

is that typically how e!devo would play? man, this is killing me.

On 12/12/2023 at 9:24 AM, Ookla of Ravens said:

why would pursuing a convention game goal be suspicious? if anything, i would call it a rather conventional strategy.

On 12/12/2023 at 9:14 AM, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Elims can have teammates run cover for them to win their game without being noticed by their opponent and have a better chance of being able to guess other groups, but they'll be less willing to risk suspicion being thrown on them by pursuing a convention goal, whereas villagers like I was guessing you were (claiming x3 for a convention game) would be more willing to risk themselves to win a prize since it's less harmful for them to die, even Brandon is more likely to sacrifice themselves than an elim.

 

 

 

edit:

are you proud of me i found the spoiler button : D

EDIT:2

IAM? (or is that lam?) wdym?

edit3:

please respond soon i wanna respond to ur last post ;_;

 

 

Edited December 14, 2023 by neil the beguiled

[Kasimir he/him]

15 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

IAM? (or is that lam?) wdym?

On the lam - technically slang for 'running from the law' but I'm using it here in the context of 'was an exe candidate.' I'm still compiling the votes but my glance at EoD suggested Ravenclaw was in solid contention for a bit. I'm trying to check/quantify how much because if so, this might tell us about the timeband Ravenclaw's killer had to be around in.

But even without that, just being a sus candidate...yeah.

15 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

devo.

I can categorically state here that unless there's something odd with that team, a Raven kill is not going to be in Devo's wheelhouse FWIW. Can't say about Ravenclaw, but unless Devo is metabreaking or has teammates who strongly overrule this (my experience in a MR being E with her), Devo always wants to avoid killing players who have been killed quite a few times before, new players, and returning players. She's one of the few who has the strongest restrictions on her kill MO, but is absolutely into early low info kills.

Raven's relatively early death in LG98 (admittedly not in the QF), but also relative newness IMO (first game in LG98s) is likely to influence Devo against a Raven kill solo.

15 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

2 a sort of frame of mind of being "a wild card"

Yeah...but Raven's also still largely in the sheeping phase and learning to form suspicions phase. I would actually say I'd consider TKN more of a wildcard than Raven. Like as a maf, I'd totally want this guy around in my final few? (SORRY RAVEN LOOK I'M TIRED I'M TRYING DIPLOMACY BUT ALSO. I'M STILL TIRED.)

15 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

are you proud of me i found the spoiler button : D

Spoiler

Edited to add:

@neil the beguiled - This might be a stronger statement to commit to, and I don't feel as confident of it as the Devo statement, but I'm struggling to see any world in which any regular (i.e. 'has played often/recently') player here is willing to sign off on a Raven kill. There's a reason Raven getting N1ed was so striking in LG98b - it's a strong taboo that was broken. LG98 was rerun, which is why there's a LG98a and a LG98b, and Raven also played Archer's QF69. This makes it 2-3 games Raven played, one which ended on C1, one which he was N1ed in, and one which he actually got to play. I'm genuinely struggling here to see any regular consider this an acceptable kill when there are many other targets. Maybe, just barely. But in light of Raven also having been N1ed on his technical first game? Oof.

Edited December 14, 2023 by Kasimir

[neil the beguiled]

45 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Just saw the edit, edited into my post unfortunately

I'll recopy for ease of reference:

Well, that's the point of having a Village with varied skillsets, right? We cover each others' weaknesses. I think I'd die in chat mafia, one minute mafia with Aman and Stick and a bunch of others already killed me because my brain just goes ???? and empties out

Raven's really new and really unlucky actually. They keep getting N1ed in direct violation of new player protection. To me, it's definitely a low info kill for Raven, and I think unlikely Raven would die soon, so it's low info + safe I suppose (i.e. if you had to park a kill and go), but Ravenclaw interests me because Ravenclaw was on the lam for part of the cycle, which is a headspace I'm trying to get into - why make that shot? And maf or SK?

I am trying to be diplomatic here: Raven's getting used to the idea that voting off the bat isn't itself sus. It's fine, we all start somewhere, but I actually kind of don't feel that fits the profile of even a potential kill, as phrased.

ive decided to keep this in the post editor so i can post it immediately after you respond to my last post nyehehehhe (inb4 i fall asleep first w/e)

ah okay okay, i think that makes sense. tbh id like to get a better grasp on the lurkers, seeing as two wagons flipped t, im kinda reluctant to think the others may as well...? ie an utr maf team thats not getting focus and content to sit back? which would be kinda annoying to see if we're all just... eating each other alive here (sorry archer ;_;).

seeing raven as also a new player getting killed just feels like a huge head tilt then. i guess low info whatever, but its just... weird too? i unno.

 

28 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

On the lam - technically slang for 'running from the law' but I'm using it here in the context of 'was an exe candidate.' I'm still compiling the votes but my glance at EoD suggested Ravenclaw was in solid contention for a bit. I'm trying to check/quantify how much because if so, this might tell us about the timeband Ravenclaw's killer had to be around in.

But even without that, just being a sus candidate...yeah.

I can categorically state here that unless there's something odd with that team, a Raven kill is not going to be in Devo's wheelhouse FWIW. Can't say about Ravenclaw, but unless Devo is metabreaking or has teammates who strongly overrule this (my experience in a MR being E with her), Devo always wants to avoid killing players who have been killed quite a few times before, new players, and returning players. She's one of the few who has the strongest restrictions on her kill MO, but is absolutely into early low info kills.

Raven's relatively early death in LG98 (admittedly not in the QF), but also relative newness IMO (first game in LG98s) is likely to influence Devo against a Raven kill solo.

Yeah...but Raven's also still largely in the sheeping phase and learning to form suspicions phase. I would actually say I'd consider TKN more of a wildcard than Raven. Like as a maf, I'd totally want this guy around in my final few? (SORRY RAVEN LOOK I'M TIRED I'M TRYING DIPLOMACY BUT ALSO. I'M STILL TIRED.)

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ah okok. that does make it a weird kill for either killing party then acc- do you think this points to an UTR killer then?  im not exactly used to nightless games like this, do you think my vague analysis in one of my prior posts (i think the first of this cycle) is valid?

ah hm, okay. do you think devo would... be the type to get easily overturned by teammates though? though i dont think a teammate would purposefully want to kill someone who had a fos on her anyways hmmm. i think this probably is more generally indicative of a not-e!devo world then

alright hm.

:catblush: ^w^

(also noted edit even if not quoted here): yeah that'd be BM if it was a regular. who played in those games who also is a player here? maybe that'd help narrow down a pool? you sound genuinely frustrated at this.

mmm i think in light of this im gonna move devo off my vote pile for today and look a bit further then; can i get your opinions on winnie the poohkla ? theyre someone i remembered getting gutpinged at earlier in c1 and theyve kinda flown utr for me otherwise

edit:

ravenclaw also very low profile ??? i dunno what to think there

edit2:

im so tired i think ill go 2 bed now. o/ also i think ive decided oohkla season is a plague to note you ahd poohkla in ur squint list. headinhands. weh. i should maybe habve a bit more time itt tmrw but the day after i have a final due so errrrm rlly shouldnt see much from me (and if u do, tell me off plz)

 

 

Edited December 14, 2023 by neil the beguiled

[Kasimir he/him]

42 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

ah okok. that does make it a weird kill for either killing party then acc- do you think this points to an UTR killer then?  im not exactly used to nightless games like this, do you think my vague analysis in one of my prior posts (i think the first of this cycle) is valid?

I'm working through it. Genuinely not sure, need time. Do not want to commit prior to finalising vote analysis because I think timing and apparent wagon viability matters here wrt hypothesising. Will promise to get back by Rollovet (24 hour mark) if my exhaustion is unkind, as soon as possible/earlier if I can? Am working on it I promise. And yes, by which I mean I do want to try my own NKA though I'd prefer Ash's over mine, but I need the vote progression analysis done first for timing reasons.

42 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

ah okay okay, i think that makes sense. tbh id like to get a better grasp on the lurkers, seeing as two wagons flipped t, im kinda reluctant to think the others may as well...? ie an utr maf team thats not getting focus and content to sit back? which would be kinda annoying to see if we're all just... eating each other alive here (sorry archer ;_;).

Can I ask what this means? (Highlighted and bolded.)

42 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

ah hm, okay. do you think devo would... be the type to get easily overturned by teammates though? though i dont think a teammate would purposefully want to kill someone who had a fos on her anyways hmmm. i think this probably is more generally indicative of a not-e!devo world then

Devo would bring it up as an objection, and the teammate would need to probably have a stronger view about it. IDK, it wouldn't be hostile or violent - when I say I recall this from being E with Devo, I think it was back in a MR she, Fifth, and I were Elims together. We wanted to NK Mat, or considered a returning player (IDR the full context, can pull it up later as I think speed more relevant now in your exhausted state), Devo pointed out that wasn't cool, I said, "Yes, but half the game is returning players or new players so our choices are limited." And Fifth and I outvoted her. I think. Maybe Devo remembers. I'll check later.

I think to me this is more indicative Raven is likely a solo SK kill. I struggle to see an Elim team not have at least one regular who would point out the issues with going Raven. Like is that impossible? No - it just requires a convoluted situation where a non-regular swapped the kill late before the regular could object and so on, but yeaaaaah.

42 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

yeah that'd be BM if it was a regular. who played in those games who also is a player here? maybe that'd help narrow down a pool? you sound genuinely frustrated at this.

There's a reason it became an unspoken taboo, and that's to do with how welcoming the community was. I know, I know it's a complicated conversation and there are many other factors to what's offputting and what's not, but I do think it's harsh even as we suffer from playerbase renewal to be killing new players early if there's no urgent tactical need for it and all that.

I don't know I'm frustrated, just exasperated because that was a needless N1 back in LG98. But yeah. There's definitely a potential pool, I'll draw it up when doing NKA.

42 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

mmm i think in light of this im gonna move devo off my vote pile for today and look a bit further then; can i get your opinions on winnie the poohkla ? theyre someone i remembered getting gutpinged at earlier in c1 and theyve kinda flown utr for me otherwise

Ha. Hahahahahhahaa.

I need to introduce you, my good sir, to a meme from Stick

 

I kind of think Araris is just being Araris. But I tend to project the alignment I want Araris to be (Village bro please ) rather than look at what is there. So I really do not/would not trust my judgement on Araris even though I try.

I will say I hesitate on whether E!Araris would've just voted Archer like that. It's a lot bolder than I would expect from him. A Ravenclaw kill would be entirely within his targeting MO though - he opens with low info kills (I'm presuming this for the moment, as opposed to aggressive control/threat kills.)

Edited to add:

42 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

im so tired i think ill go 2 bed now. o/ also i think ive decided oohkla season is a plague to note you ahd poohkla in ur squint list. headinhands. weh. i should maybe habve a bit more time itt tmrw but the day after i have a final due so errrrm rlly shouldnt see much from me (and if u do, tell me off plz)

Yes, please rest well! Will do. I've some OOG stuff as well that will be preoccupying me so will attempt to pareto principle my thread presence where possible. With regard to Araris - nulls are my default tier. He was stuck there because I had no reason to V read him but also felt what I saw was...normal for him. I went back and forth about whether I thought E!Araris would be as aggressive on Archer (kind of doubt it) but at the same time, recalled he noted once that E!him has a tendency to be more annoyed on issues of play than V!him, which stood out to me a bit in the sharp tone of his response to Archer. So I shrugged and nulled him.

Edited to add 2:

Neil, maybe let me be candid here. I think - and this is me committing prior to completing vote re-analysis on rest - that I generally disagree with your and Aman's approaches on a broad level, largely because I feel and IDK if it's weird I feel that way wrt Aman because I feel both of you are - overexpecting from some players. It felt true of Ravenclaw, and I'm going to quietly admit it feels to me to be the case with Wiz too. 

Now, the thing I will admit is that I sometimes cut too much slack to players being weird when the simple answer is that they're just Evil. This was the crux of the clashes between me and Stick in our last QF because she asked too many questions (sorry, meme for Stick's amusement) because she felt I was essentially doing a purity read and I felt she was hyperfixating on low/casual/moderately experienced players just being inexperienced/susceptible/human/fallible in a way that made me think she was trying to LHF.

Maybe both of you are right, and I'm fine giving both of you the room to work and re-evaluating as things go on, which is why I'm not intervening.

This is sort of in the back of my head as well in terms of yesterday's trains and so on. 

Edited December 14, 2023 by Kasimir

[Amanuensis he/him]

4 hours ago, neil the beguiled said:

low info shot? do you mean to kill for... being unstanced? considering aeoryi self voted to save ash im not rlly sure what to think of either wagon atm. VCA is for nerds (im a nerd, just a tired one.) and sure, talk to me about it. i can give you self meta you can ignore if you want. "its a fun play" said by someone who also voted raven doesnt inspire much confidence though.

why did you end up joining me on raven anyways?

Yeah, in a Theoretical SK!Aman world, I might have considered voting Ravenclaw and killing him, assuming I had the idea prior to the flip. I also did complain about all the Ravens confusing me  as for E!Aman, I usually defer to my teammates or go for Kas early to save us both the heartbreak

I am generally very open to last minute Fire Drills on new wagons or wagons that have less traction due to wagonomics. Didn't love the Archer surge, didn't want to D1 Aeo, and wanted to give Ash at least one more cycle just in case they're Village. You asking for Ravenclaw votes was the only tangible alternative I could vote while I was at work

[Kasimir he/him]

9 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Yeah, in a Theoretical SK!Aman world, I might have considered voting Ravenclaw and killing him, assuming I had the idea prior to the flip. I also did complain about all the Ravens confusing me  as for E!Aman, I usually defer to my teammates or go for Kas early to save us both the heartbreak

"Thanks abang

Love you too, having to wrangle E!you in that Roshar warcamps duel broke my heart <3"

!RemindMe for F5 when Aman tries to get me to ML Araris for the challenge. Truly the one where all our hearts were broken :sob: 

[Coffeecat she/her]

I just want to remind people that my vote on wizard was just a really low pressure vote which I'm probably gonna change unless wiz gives me reason not to.

As for the lurking ;-; I don't get as much time to analyze stuff as all of you do, neither am I good at it, so I just read my way through posts as I can in batches of one or two. 

I honestly have no idea what else to say I'm kind of lost as of now, either everyone is evil or everyone is good, neither of which make sense.

 

Edit, this is the time I'm usually more active

Edited December 14, 2023 by Coffeecat

[Amanuensis he/him]

15 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

"Thanks abang

Love you too, having to wrangle E!you in that Roshar warcamps duel broke my heart <3"

!RemindMe for F5 when Aman tries to get me to ML Araris for the challenge. Truly the one where all our hearts were broken

Fortunately this is another example of low time/energy V!Aman, so no heartbreak required I'm obviously very serious about my Brandon claim

[Kasimir he/him]

15 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

I just want to remind people that my vote on wizard was just a really low pressure vote which I'm probably gonna change unless wiz gives me reason not to.

As for the lurking ;-; I don't get as much time to analyze stuff as all of you do, neither am I good at it, so I just read my way through posts as I can in batches of one or two. 

I honestly have no idea what else to say I'm kind of lost as of now, either everyone is evil or everyone is good, neither of which make sense.

 

Edit, this is the time I'm usually more active

Is there something we can do to help you get a better grasp on the cycle? Could you maybe name just one trust and one sus?

3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Fortunately this is another example of low time/energy V!Aman, so no heartbreak required I'm obviously very serious about my Brandon claim

I think u mean u...

Randed Sanderson

serious talk do me a favour if I'm sussing you overly and ask me to just ask you about what's bothering me.

i realise i do that less often with you and orlok especially and it causes all three of us grief e.g. mr66 and i think changing that or making a habit of stopping and just asking right there or talking about it might help cut down the curse of bro on bro violence

[Amanuensis he/him]

13 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Is there something we can do to help you get a better grasp on the cycle? Could you maybe name just one trust and one sus?

I think u mean u...

Randed Sanderson

serious talk do me a favour if I'm sussing you overly and ask me to just ask you about what's bothering me.

i realise i do that less often with you and orlok especially and it causes all three of us grief e.g. mr66 and i think changing that or making a habit of stopping and just asking right there or talking about it might help cut down the curse of bro on bro violence

You can freely voice your concerns without concern about my reaction. I think after the last C1 ML I've gotten free of my Trauma sorry that I've not been more readable tho, hoping that when I have proper time off I can fix that, but if I die before then, so be it /shrug

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

You can freely voice your concerns without concern about my reaction. I think after the last C1 ML I've gotten free of my Trauma sorry that I've not been more readable tho, hoping that when I have proper time off I can fix that, but if I die before then, so be it /shrug

Tbh it's not concern about your reaction. I didn’t realise I was doing this until I talked to TJ the other week about how he used to keep sussing me extra hard. He could have asked me and eased his concerns but he didn't want to because he was quietly worried talking to me would make him go easier on me because bros. I had that issue with Drake as well and then realised that it's the TJ problem and I need to break that habit.

I think MR66 drove it home because just directly asking you instead of building huge paranoid theories could have avoided problems. 

I also don't think it's that you're not readable. I personally feel as though I'm struggling especially hard this game to have reads that feel right and I don't understand why. It's like night and day with my comparator.

So yeah basically not you it's me. Just trying to remember to ask as it's not natural for me apparently >>

[Coffeecat she/her]

 

I'm kind of suspicious of amanuensis, possibly enough to vote them later on. Let me break down the possibilities:

Amanuensis is villager:

Very very few villagers ever claim protect role out of the blue, to draw attention from the real PR... But I don't really know amanuensis so this might be possible

 

Amanuensis is PR: just why would they claim? Especially with two killing fractions that want them gone, they need to protect themselves all cycles just in case, making themselves useless beyond kill mitigation. Doesn't seem likely to me, but I don't have as much experience with this.

Which brings me to amanuensis is evil, whether E or SK, trying to draw out the real PR or just trying to seem less suspicious and possibly getting the real PR dead. 

SK amanuensis seems slightly more likely to me since it is a bit of a wilder play, and they could even make the Elim team think they are the PR role due to their kill immunity.

 

This are just my thoughts for suspicion on amanuensis, please correct any misinformation or fallacies.

 

I also kinda trust araris due to the wagon that is forming on them for no reason, kinda feels like Es trying to 'accidentally' get rid of a strong lategame player

Edited December 14, 2023 by Coffeecat

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

7 hours ago, neil the beguiled said:

where are you looking now?

Red

6 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Raven's really new and really unlucky actually. They keep getting N1ed in direct violation of new player protection. To me, it's definitely a low info kill for Raven, and I think unlikely Raven would die soon, so it's low info + safe I suppose (i.e. if you had to park a kill and go), but Ravenclaw interests me because Ravenclaw was on the lam for part of the cycle, which is a headspace I'm trying to get into - why make that shot? And maf or SK?

It mostly likely was the SK as I doubt the elims would want to flip more people on a village train for us...huh but then BOTH kills were on the Archer train. Stinks of something to me but not quite certain, it seems to point me to Araris.

30 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

Very very few villagers ever claim protect role out of the blue, to draw attention from the real PR... But I don't really know amanuensis so this might be possible

Aman is the king of claiming so I'd argue that it's actually NAI

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon he/him]

My apologies everyone, but life comes before the Shard. I’ll be more active this cycle, and try to read through last cycle in my free time. Sorry again, and I’ll talk to you soon

[Coffeecat she/her]

23 minutes ago, Ookla the Raveness said:

Aman is the king of claiming so I'd argue that it's actually NAI

They could still be claiming as an Elim, I'm still suspicious but I want possibly a response from aman before I vote them

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

29 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

They could still be claiming as an Elim, I'm still suspicious but I want possibly a response from aman before I vote them

Well my point is, Aman would do this if he was village, the SK, or Elim just cuz it’s what he would do if village so he's not necessarily evil because of it nor village because of it.

[Kasimir he/him]

10 minutes ago, Ookla the Raveness said:

Well my point is, Aman would do this if he was village, the SK, or Elim just cuz it’s what he would do if village so he's not necessarily evil because of it nor village because of it.

I could see E!Aman not doing it at all. It's a very aggressive opening for E!him, and I've had that vibes off some of his posts. V!Aman has FAFO energy in a way E!Aman doesn't IMO. I'm not saying E!him wouldn't, but I've also played E!him playing it straight and I feel he ramps up to that kind of thing when E rather than guns it.

1 hour ago, Ookla the Raveness said:

It mostly likely was the SK as I doubt the elims would want to flip more people on a village train for us...huh but then BOTH kills were on the Archer train. Stinks of something to me but not quite certain, it seems to point me to Araris.

I'm interested in how you're so confident of this.

I've noted Coffee's argument with interest but I want to see what Aman says before I say anything.

Edited to add:

Tbh I like it. Coffee. Cash.

Edited December 14, 2023 by Kasimir

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

I could see E!Aman not doing it at all. It's a very aggressive opening for E!him, and I've had that vibes off some of his posts. V!Aman has FAFO energy in a way E!Aman doesn't IMO. I'm not saying E!him wouldn't, but I've also played E!him playing it straight and I feel he ramps up to that kind of thing when E rather than guns it.

Yeah you're right, I was kinda using LG92 from memory where he came out very fast with the whole soccer themed roles that didn't exist.

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

I'm interested in how you're so confident of this.

I've noted Coffee's argument with interest but I want to see what Aman says before I say anything.

Well actually I'm not so confident anymore as I realized both were on that train so honestly it could have gone either way. But my first guess was Ravenclaw was SK and Raven was the elim.

[Kasimir he/him]

14 minutes ago, Ookla the Raveness said:

But my first guess was Ravenclaw was SK and Raven was the elim.

You would!