Mid-Range Game 67: 'Twas the Night Before SA5

[Kasimir he/him]

8 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

i promise if we miselim a villager then i will take the guilt from you. but if we eliminate an eliminator we shall ride towards victory!

You really won't. There's a reason Aman once wanted to see it from me and called it my V!tell before we decided 'watch Kas self-destruct because he MLed a Villager' was not a very healthy tell to have and I've been trying to suppress it since.

Can I ask where you stand on Araris v. Cash right now? I don't think my head's making very much progress. Ultimately they just both seem like candidates to me given my views on D1 EoD vote stability being likely indicative of Elim contentment, therefore little incentive to move.

Edited to add:

9 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Couldn’t agree with Stick more. She is a wise piece of woodland detritus.

WWSV

Edited to add 2:

Sorry @Elandera @Ookla the Destined I kind of need to do this because no one is posting.

Araris

Edited December 15, 2023 by Kasimir

[Amanuensis he/him]

On 12/13/2023 at 6:20 PM, Ookla the Raveness said:

That was not the flip I was hopping for >>

On 12/13/2023 at 7:30 PM, Ookla the Raveness said:

I had this wild theory near the end that Archer and Aeoryi were e/e and I wanted Archer dead over Aeo but I was wrong and shouldn't have listened to my crazy theory.

Although Wiz’s EoD was questionable, I don’t think it’s outside most player’s v!range (we’ve seen plenty of last minute villager hopping before), and his C2 open reads as pure to me, if only because I don’t think an elim would pull that and come in with a “crazy theory” defense unless it was to Protect a teammate (in this case, Aeo).

8 hours ago, Ookla the Raveness said:

Wait huh...that is weird, I've usually noticed when I'm keeping a VC which I wasn't this time. Weird, cuz I thought I was breaking the tie onto Archer, not making one.

5 hours ago, Ookla the Raveness said:

Well Archer switched back to me from Aeo, saying that he wouldn't be back to switch his vote which to me felt like an elim teammate pulling back before the wagon killed his teammate.

And how Cash avoided Araris completely felt like he's teamed with Araris...and it’s probably crazy but I also haven't had time to reread and revise. I hope I will later because I don’t want to do to Araris what I did to Archer. Idk how effective it will be but I hope it points me more solidily in one direction.

Also I haven't has time to read your whole post, just the question as I'm rather busy right now.

1 hour ago, Ookla the Raveness said:

Never have I once suspected Archer to be Brandon

 

Well he didn't even seem to realize that Araris was on the train too. 

 

Honestly...idk the evidence seems to point me after Cash before Araris because on rereading this cycle he sticks out more, but Araris disappears and hasn't reappeared too much. Flying under the radar again. 

The sacred coin and me passing messages helped

 

So I'm breaking the tie in favor of Cash Araris

 

Hopefully accurate VC:

Wiz (1): Cash

Araris (3): Niel, Aman, Coffe

Cash (5): Kas, Devo, Aeo, Araris, Wiz

These feel similarly pure to me but I might just be crazy

[neil the beguiled]

Just now, Kasimir said:

You really won't. There's a reason Aman once wanted to see it from me and called it my V!tell before we decided 'watch Kas self-destruct because he MLed a Villager' was not a very healthy tell to have and I've been trying to suppress it since.

Can I ask where you stand on Araris v. Cash right now? I don't think my head's making very much progress. Ultimately they just both seem like candidates to me given my views on D1 EoD vote stability being likely indicative of Elim contentment, therefore little incentive to move.

ah. we better not mss then. i think my vote is probably stance enough at the moment. i kind of think that csh promoting suspicion onto wiz right now is decent look (as opposed to just forcing a ararisvote...?) but that was... a while ago and then ive not seen much more from it. do you think an eliminator would try and gun for the opposing wagon or instead try and start a new one...? but then theres nota lot of... oomph for it right now...? i think if cash flips w i think id actually look at wiz next for a distancing ploy.

araris right now i think is a better bet. if nothing else, i like the wagon members more overall than cashes (sorry kas), but also thinking the wagon is pure doesnt bode well ever... i just think cash is a shruglunch over arasis at the moment

[Kasimir he/him]

6 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Although Wiz’s EoD was questionable, I don’t think it’s outside most player’s v!range (we’ve seen plenty of last minute villager hopping before), and his C2 open reads as pure to me, if only because I don’t think an elim would pull that and come in with a “crazy theory” defense unless it was to Protect a teammate (in this case, Aeo).

My issue is I've picked up a healthier respect for his E!range after he kind of did kayana crem in LG93. That being said, I'm actually willing to sheep you on Wiz for the short-term, on the belief he can be sorted later.

I think I'm unfortunately shifting to Araris between the two I guess. 

I don't know if this is the right call honestly. It feels like the sort of decision that's balanced on a knife's edge. If this is E!you...man, you're one scary bro, and it's happening now rather than at endgame.

The forcefulness of Araris's reply to Archer is the one thing that keeps sticking in my head I guess. And I feel it makes more sense with E!Araris than V.

Edited to add:

1 minute ago, neil the beguiled said:

do you think an eliminator would try and gun for the opposing wagon or instead try and start a new one...?

At this point? Probably gun. At the time Cash voted Wiz? Can't remember the numbers.

Edited December 15, 2023 by Kasimir

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Nobody needs to feel guilty about exeing me btw, I'm chilling with my family right now (which is also part of why my contributions are lower). Not gonna respond to anything else this cycle, I've got some things to take care of. See y'all either on the other side or in a doc .

[Amanuensis he/him]

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

My issue is I've picked up a healthier respect for his E!range after he kind of did kayana crem in LG93. That being said, I'm actually willing to sheep you on Wiz for the short-term, on the belief he can be sorted later.

I think I'm unfortunately shifting to Araris between the two I guess. 

I don't know if this is the right call honestly. It feels like the sort of decision that's balanced on a knife's edge. If this is E!you...man, you're one scary bro, and it's happening now rather than at endgame.

The forcefulness of Araris's reply to Archer is the one thing that keeps sticking in my head I guess. And I feel it makes more sense with E!Araris than V.

I don’t think I played LG93 so possibly I’m underestimating his crazy versus you overestimating his crazy, but fair enough. I could see an SK!Wiz world tbh.

Edited December 15, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, Winnie the Pookla said:

Nobody needs to feel guilty about exeing me btw

I appreciate this, Porch Bro. But look. You know this is a long term thing I work on. But emotions like guilt aren't rational. If it comes, it comes, and then I will just have to do my best to learn to cope, or to stop having it. Or quit forum mafia. Or something. Ich schaffe das, I suppose.

4 minutes ago, Winnie the Pookla said:

I'm chilling with my family right now (which is also part of why my contributions are lower). Not gonna respond to anything else this cycle, I've got some things to take care of. See y'all either on the other side or in a doc .

Enjoy! See you on the other side o7

[Amanuensis he/him]

19 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Brandon, Kas
Neil, Aeoyri
Wizard, Araris, TKN, Ash, Devo
JNV, Coffee, Cash, Alpha

Probably Village, Sorta Seems Village, The Danger Zone, Just Kinda Here I Guess.

My only sensible goals from here on are to:

1. Either strengthen or diminish my Neil and Aeo credences based on their content going forward and any potential findings. Not currently concerned.
2. Move players in the current danger zone either up or down based on future interactions and how they respond to pressure. These are my active concerns.
3. Encourage the JKHIGs to participate more so I can either place them in SSV or TDZ. These are my passive concerns.

IDK why I did this post like this but I had fun with it ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I should update this tonight in case the elims or the SK aim for my throat

19 hours ago, Ookla the Raveness said:

I might have to steal the idea as I like it too

Kinda just lurking and keeping up with the thread, don't have as much time tonight but I kinda wanna make a SE pyramid

Yo Wiz think you got time for one too

[Kasimir he/him]

Sorry to anyone who finds this distasteful, btw. Am aware, am trying. 

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

6 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

My issue is I've picked up a healthier respect for his E!range after he kind of did kayana crem in LG93. That being said, I'm actually willing to sheep you on Wiz for the short-term, on the belief he can be sorted later.

I think I'm unfortunately shifting to Araris between the two I guess. 

I don't know if this is the right call honestly. It feels like the sort of decision that's balanced on a knife's edge. If this is E!you...man, you're one scary bro, and it's happening now rather than at endgame.

The forcefulness of Araris's reply to Archer is the one thing that keeps sticking in my head I guess. And I feel it makes more sense with E!Araris than V.

Edited to add:

At this point? Probably gun. At the time Cash voted Wiz? Can't remember the numbers.

4 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I don’t think I played LG93 so possibly I’m underestimating his crazy versus you overestimating his crazy, but fair enough. I could see an SK!Wiz world tbh.

If only I was so lucky...

Kas is right about LG93 and I do tend to mess more at EoD especially with ties as evil, especially to implicate someone else, like Silho in MR63(?) I think it was

6 minutes ago, Winnie the Pookla said:

Nobody needs to feel guilty about exeing me btw, I'm chilling with my family right now (which is also part of why my contributions are lower). Not gonna respond to anything else this cycle, I've got some things to take care of. See y'all either on the other side or in a doc .

Have a great time with your family!!

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

I should update this tonight in case the elims or the SK aim for my throat

Yo Wiz think you got time for one too

Uh I think so

[Amanuensis he/him]

Aman
Brandon, Kas
Neil, Aeoyri, Wizard
Devo, TKN, Ash, Cash, Araris
Coffee, JNV, Alpha

Probably Village, Sorta Seems Village, The Danger Zone, Just Kinda Here I Guess.
 

Best I can manage, sadly.

Edited December 15, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Mat he/him]

VC, tallybot agrees so it's probably right lol:

• Araris Valerian/Pookla (5): neil the beguiled, Amanuensis, Coffeecat, Aeoryi/Resolute, Kasimir
• Cash67/Rich (3): Devotary of Spontaneity, Araris Valerian/Pookla, The Wandering Wizard/Raveness
• The Wandering Wizard/Raveness (1): Cash67/Rich

Twenty-three minutes!

[Amanuensis he/him]

Would anyone hate me if I last minute switched to Cash for a tie

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

Brandon, Kas
Neil, Aeoyri, Aman
Araris, TKN,  Coffee, Cash
JNV, Alpha, Devo, Ash

Probably Village, Sorta Seems Village, The Danger Zone, Just Kinda Here I Guess.

TKN is italicized because he's kinda in-between Danger and Kinda here. 

[Kasimir he/him]

18 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Although Wiz’s EoD was questionable, I don’t think it’s outside most player’s v!range (we’ve seen plenty of last minute villager hopping before), and his C2 open reads as pure to me, if only because I don’t think an elim would pull that and come in with a “crazy theory” defense unless it was to Protect a teammate (in this case, Aeo).

These feel similarly pure to me but I might just be crazy

I've read the posts - I'm willing to see the purity, just also LG93 paranoia. As you say, either you're undercompensating or I'm overcompensating. I think it's fairly plausible I'm overcompensating.

I'll say I feel a bit better to notice when reading that Wiz is being a bit more precise in his claims rather than making motherhood statements, which is how Stick started to notice and sus him in LG93 before he started to channel enough AG9 Cham to throw her off.

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Would anyone hate me if I last minute switched to Cash for a tie

I wouldn't mind.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Devo is here to break it if she wants so might as well tie it now Cash

Edited December 15, 2023 by Amanuensis

[neil the beguiled]

4 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Would anyone hate me if I last minute switched to Cash for a tie

maybe a little bit!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Kasimir he/him]

I'll say this. I did not plan to be up until 7AM.

But the sky is so beautiful right now it's almost worth it. Blue and pale sunfire against the clouds. And I can hear the koels calling.

[neil the beguiled]

[FONT=Comic Sans MS] why does this feel like a funeral and not an eod [/FONT]

 

edit

i feel deeply embarressed by this mistake >///>

Edited December 15, 2023 by neil the beguiled

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, neil the beguiled said:

[FONT=Comic Sans MS] why does this feel like a funeral and not an eod [/FONT]

 

edit

i feel deeply embarressed by this mistake >///>

It's a funeral for your comic sans attempt sir >:P 

[neil the beguiled]

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

It's a funeral for your comic sans attempt sir >:P 

war is a dark and lonely path, and yet i march on

[Coffeecat she/her]

Well there went my attempt to be more active at day end, had to go shopping. 

In response to kas from earlier, I do think wiz might be evil as well. Not as sure but definitely someone I want to watch out for. And wow this EOD was wild. Here's to hoping we learn a lot for the coin flip, and the alignment flip. 

 

Kas, I would say it's a funeral for your sleep schedule. Are you around oceania?

 

Edit: oh dear autocorrect does not like kas

Edited December 15, 2023 by Coffeecat

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Coffeecat said:

Kas, I would said it's a funeral for your sleep schedule. Are you around oceania?

Wow Coffee's a SK too. That was brutal

Yes, I am.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

9 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Devo is here to break it if she wants

I'm already voting so I could only guarantee Araris's death instead of 50-50%. I am not that convinced of Araris being elim.