Mid-Range Game 3: When Chalklings Attack

[Wyrmhero he/him]

Can we have the votes for last Cycle please, Smart?

 

So it looks like I was wrong about Tulir, which is annoying at this stage in the game. Makes me wonder why he didn't say his Role though. Maybe he just thought he wouldn't believe him, I guess. We lost Gamma as well, but at least we've only lost one Rithmatist this Cycle - though small comfort that is. With our 'Sentry' (sorry, I'm still not able to 100% believe you, Joel. Call it healthy paranoia) still alive, we might be okay this Cycle. It is possible that we need to lynch the right guy or lose though, so we need people to actually contribute.

 

I think we can safely come to the conclusion that the Forgotten are taking out the more experienced players first. So the actual deaths themselves aren't too important, but the order could be.

• Meta was first. I've said that was unsurprising, as he's a good and dangerous player for either side to have. I don't think that tells us too much.
• Will made a plan for us to follow and was then bumped off. This does suggest that the Forgotten didn't want the village to have a plan, or someone in charge at the very least. There is the possibility that one of them wanted to take over planning, which would point towards Joel.
• Aonar posted about his new Rithmatic Lines and was then killed. I am doubtful that these two facts are anything more than a coincidence though, considering he posted it late in the Cycle, and he had to be hit by both a Line of Vigor and the kill at the same time. It could suggest that the Forgotten killed him while his logic pointed towards Ashiok being innocent, but that may be a bit too convoluted a plot to have happened.
• Gamma's death though doesn't make too much sense to me. He argued against a few plans and voted for inactives for the most part. I would have suspected someone who has interacted with him before, such as Kas, except his death was rather late in the game, and I think that would have happened much earlier on if Kas was an Eliminator.

For my part this Cycle, I want to collect as much information as possible, so we can figure things out. We're not quite in lynch-or-lose yet, but we will be next Cycle if things go badly for us. Last Cycle, we heard nothing from Ashiok or Araris, and considering how well things seem to be going for the Forgotten, it does make me wonder if they've decided to just be hidden in the shadows, letting us do their work for them. I will vote for Araris, for now, and see what he says.

Edited October 27, 2014 by Wyrmhero

[Kasimir he/him]

My timezone isn't a great one, and I'm currently working on a short paper on epistemic authority, so I'll try and keep this just as short and pop in tomorrow after class ends.

 

A few things: first, King: I'm not really sure losing a Non-Rithmatist is much comfort, as sure, we have slightly less reason to worry that the camp's defense will be compromised by one less Line of Warding, but all the same, it just makes things even trickier for us since all the Forgotten seem to be Rithmatists (if I've been understanding the rules correctly). Would've been much easier to adjudicate a role-claim of Non-Rithmatist, I believe :/

 

Second, I'm not too fond of drawing player-connections as a means of anything more than stimulating discussion, because when you have a sample size largely consisting of players who've played upwards of four or five games (Chase, and Dui being notable exceptions to this, although I suspect we could really extend this description to (potentially) Araris)--it's not really meaningful to talk about player-connections in anything short of the sense of actual, concrete friendships: we've been around and in enough games to have been on the same and different sides at various points. In short, I'm suggesting that we've been around enough to be promiscuous about our connections, so I'm not really sure it is meaningful or very helpful to us to be focusing on prior existing relationships between players with the exception of concrete, live friendships. And to clarify the useful sense of concrete friendships I'm talking about--I'm referring to friendships that could actually causally lead to a decision to kill another player: so for instance, Cessie's deciding to convert Wilson because they had a live friendship that would make in-person deception problematic.

 

Third, I'm wondering if we're reading a little too much into Aonar's death--he, too, could just as easily fit the category of being a "good and dangerous player for either side to have." I can't make sense of Gamma's death either, but he was pretty inactive this game. But I do have a hypothesis: don't forget that Artists and Non-Rithmatists would pose a certain amount of threat and difficulty to the Forgotten, simply in virtue of their roles. My suggestion/hypothesis is that the Forgotten were perhaps trying to hunt for either of these particular player roles, and were fishing blindly among the inactive players, under the operating assumption that someone with either role was trying to pass off as inactive. (Even though it seems they haven't at all been motivated to take out our Sentry, which does make you wonder about assumptions we've been making.) So Gamma's death would mark the approximate turning point from going after players considered dangerous to something else taking priority: finding dangerous roles in the inactives. I'll take a closer look once I'm properly done/back, though.

 

Edit: colour.

Edited October 27, 2014 by Kasimir

[Lightsworn Panda he/him]

I think I may have found what Aonar was warming up to.

 

On Cycle 3, Aonar said 

 

Actually, Ash, creating a Line of Warding/Forbiddance is a great idea for the Forgotten, if they don't think they can get away with forcing a wild chalkling kill. It prevents them from being discovered by rithmatists, like yourself, who are drawing chalklings. If fact, if I were the Forgotten, I would probably be alternating kills with Lines of Forbiddance, assuming that there are only two left (and the same player cannot make consecutive kills). This would still apply the first cycle, seeing how Dui had gone inactive.

 

Given that you are one of my top suspects at the moment, I find this rather weak defence more than a little suspect as well.

 

Perhaps the even better question, that I'm surprised no one has bothered asking, is this: why did you target Chase? You shouldn't have had anything return from your chalkling, whether she had been a Forgotten using Vigor/Killing, or a rithmatist using Making. That means you had absolutely no motivation for Seeking her, other than "finding her suspicious." When you apply this in context and realize that you wouldn't have learned anything from your action, this seems incredibly silly. In fact, an non-standard result would only seem to confirm Chase's innocence, seeing how LoW/F aren't useful to the Forgotten the first cycle. 

 

This leaves us with three options. Either, A) You're an Artist, B, you're a Forgotten, or C) you didn't read the rules for Lines of Making. Right at the moment, I'm guessing Forgotten. However, Chase has more votes, and if she's a Forgotten, you probably are, and vice versa, so that vote works for me. Rlint.

 

Right after that, Aonar was killed. Earlier on, he had expressed similar feelings of suspicion to Ashiok. I find that a tad suspicious.

 

However, right now, I'm more inclined to vote for Araris. He didn't pop in to post, even after I voted for him. Going inactive is a common Eliminator tactic. Also, I think it'd be a little unfair and unbalanced if the Eliminator team had a newbie and an erratic member, so Ashiok probably isn't on the Eliminator team.

 

Alvron and Twei are next on my list of suspicions. Twei, you've been also very under the radar recently.

[Ashiok]

@Jain: I do believe that the roles were RNG'd, and I happen to find that offensive. Oh yeah. Sad but true, but C was the reason for what Aonar said.

 

Wait... Does sentry get to do rithmatics? If so, I have to wonder why the eliminators didn't snap to kill Joel. Hmm... It would take out a rithmatist and a free LoW each night for one kill. Hmm.

 

Suspicion wise... The two easiest places to hide are complete inactivity and leading the pack. I don't mean to call Wyrm out right now, just some food for thought. If the question is between Araris, Twei, and Alv, I'd have to go with Alv. Just a gut feeling and the fact that Jain AND Wyrm have poke votes on Araris.

[Lightsworn Panda he/him]

@Jain: I do believe that the roles were RNG'd, and I happen to find that offensive. Oh yeah. Sad but true, but C was the reason for what Aonar said.

 

Wait... Does sentry get to do rithmatics? If so, I have to wonder why the eliminators didn't snap to kill Joel. Hmm... It would take out a rithmatist and a free LoW each night for one kill. Hmm.

 

Suspicion wise... The two easiest places to hide are complete inactivity and leading the pack. I don't mean to call Wyrm out right now, just some food for thought. If the question is between Araris, Twei, and Alv, I'd have to go with Alv. Just a gut feeling and the fact that Jain AND Wyrm have poke votes on Araris.

 

If you're trying to plant seeds of doubt, Ashiok, you're doing it wrong.

 

Also, please be a bit more direct with your opinion. Don't be vague and "food for thought"-ish. We're running out of time and players. Helpful and game-changing decisions are needed.

 

Our "poke votes" are attempts to bring Araris out, and so far he's unresponsive. 

 

Also, I voted for Tavi, not te other way round. Could you please change it in the write-up, Satrams?   

 

Edit: Grammar

Edited October 27, 2014 by Lightsworn Panda

[A Joe in the Bush]

Yeah, I just decided that Ashiok and Jain were innocent, but Ashiok, you just jumped all the way to practicly Confirmed Forgotten. You're also defending Araris, a Player I still Suspect. As such, I'm retracting my Vote of Alvron, and putting back on you, Ashiok If there's a possible Tie, or nobody else votes for you, I'll switch to Araris. (Not a vote). Since He's one of my three main Suspects.

 

Huh. My three main Suspects all have 'A' Names.

 

@Jain. Regardless of your Alignment. I'd like to Formally Congratulate, and thank you. You've been a much better player overall recently, acrtively helping the Town, instead of chulling around like you used to. Have an Upvote.

Edited October 29, 2014 by The Only Joe

[Ashiok]

Not defending Araris, just pointing out something that was pointed out against me a couple games ago under similar circumstances. I honestly have no idea what y'all want me to do. You want me to draw conclusions, then accuse me of "planting the seeds of doubt" when I do. As with all of the games so far, I have difficulty making up my mind, so I throw all the info/suspicions I have out there and see how they are used.

 

Also, if I was Forgotten, Semi-inactivity would be a pretty good cover for me. Just saying. Me coming out with suspicions as a forgotten would just be stupid. 

 

Remember MR2? When I had information, I used it to find the problem people. In other games, where I have less concrete information, I hedge around actually placing votes (unless told to do so.) If I was Forgotten, I wouldn't be hedging around. I would be certain about all the votes I made.

 

TL;DR: Not forgotten, Not defending Araris, Don't have any concrete info. That's all.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Hey everyone, I was crazy busy this weekend and popped on for just a minute but didn't notice that I got voted for or really have time to make a post. Unfortunately, I'm still fairly busy, but lets see what I can come up with. I did propose the first plan for dealing with the lines of warding and such, but that is behind us now. Also, I am beginning to doubt that there are 3 forgotten left, since they could fairly easily use lines of vigor to cause a chalkling kill, at least how I see it, and with us making bad guesses, another 3 villagers dead and the game is over. We could try and test for how many there are, but its a little late for that and it would be pretty risky. I just had a double take there, the writeup says I voted for Jain, but it should be the other way around. Anywho, I think that I agree with Jain that Ashiok was a bit suspicious, but I don't really have any suspicions of my own right now so I'll put a vote on Tory Farth, and pop back in after an hour or two to see what happens.

 

Ash, I saw you just posted there, and I agree, although I'm not sure how it really applies to defending (or not) me, but thanks anyway.

Edited October 29, 2014 by Araris Valerian

[Lightsworn Panda he/him]

Not defending Araris, just pointing out something that was pointed out against me a couple games ago under similar circumstances. I honestly have no idea what y'all want me to do. You want me to draw conclusions, then accuse me of "planting the seeds of doubt" when I do. As with all of the games so far, I have difficulty making up my mind, so I throw all the info/suspicions I have out there and see how they are used.

 

Also, if I was Forgotten, Semi-inactivity would be a pretty good cover for me. Just saying. Me coming out with suspicions as a forgotten would just be stupid. 

 

Remember MR2? When I had information, I used it to find the problem people. In other games, where I have less concrete information, I hedge around actually placing votes (unless told to do so.) If I was Forgotten, I wouldn't be hedging around. I would be certain about all the votes I made.

 

TL;DR: Not forgotten, Not defending Araris, Don't have any concrete info. That's all.

 

 

Wait... Does sentry get to do rithmatics? If so, I have to wonder why the eliminators didn't snap to kill Joel. Hmm... It would take out a rithmatist and a free LoW each night for one kill. Hmm.

 

An example of a seed of doubt. You don't make a conclusion, yet you seem to be trying to make ourselves doubt each other.

 

Ash, a good conclusion is a post that is backed up with some evidence, and a firm belief in what you are saying. Read through the past cycles extensively to find clues and such.

[Ashiok]

Oh. got it. So something like: I'm still suspicious of Joe because killing him would make it ten times easier for the forgotten to kill us, but they haven't killed him yet. But killing him wouldn't be productive right now because if he IS the sentry, then we're not in such good shape.

 

No matter how I crunch the numbers, the odds are that we get hit by a chalkling kill tonight. If, instead, we all used forbiddance (assuming three forgotten) one forgotten vigors their target, one kills the target, and one vigors somebody else. In a scenario where everybody but two people and the forgotten were protected, would one of those two people instantly get killed by the chalklings? Or could chalklings try to hit one of the protected people? Would that be shown in the write-up?

Did that scenario make any sense?

 

TL;DR: Chalklings are coming, maybe use forbiddance? Unless that just affords forgotten two targeted kills as opposed to one.

[Sart he/him]

Alright, there appears to be some confusion about the Wild Chalkling kill. Let me clear that up.

 

• If a wild chalkling attack happens, I will use a random number generator to determine the target of the attack. The Forgotten do not get to choose who is targeted for it.
• If the number that comes up is a Forgotten or the Sentry, the kill does not go through, and the camp will mysteriously survive the attack. However, if a normal player/Rithmatist is targeted, they will be killed, even if they put up a Line of Forbiddance.
• The Line of Forbiddance blocks all other kills, such as Forgotten kills, Lines of Revocation, and the lynch vote.

I hope that clears up any confusion about a Chalkling attack. Also, please note that all roles have access to Rithmatic lines, except for the non-Rithmatist. If you have any other questions, feel free to ask them in the thread.

[A Joe in the Bush]

If I die tonight, will my Passive Defensive Bonus still count towards the Camp's defense?

 

EDIT: '?' not '.'

Edited October 28, 2014 by The Only Joe

[Alvron he/him]

• The Line of Forbiddance blocks all other kills, such as Forgotten kills, Lines of Revocation, and the lynch vote.

​So if I understand it correctly, then anyone we try to lynch can protect themselves with a Line of Forbiddance and will survive.  I guess that means we will have to start hitting the lynchee with a Line of Vigor in order to ensure that any Forgotten we do manage to find is killed.

Edited October 28, 2014 by Alvron

[twelfthrootoftwo]

Jain, Aonar’s logic in that post was exclusive – either Ash and Chase were both Forgotten, or neither were. The fact that Chase was lynched, and proven innocent, would therefore (by that logic) mean Ash is also innocent. If Aonar did get killed for that post, it could indicate two things:  Ash is a Forgotten, and Aonar’s other reasons were enough to want him silenced, or Ash is not a Forgotten, and the real Forgotten wanted to frame him. But I would trend towards the argument that Aonar is just too dangerous as a Villager to leave alive for long.

 

So the chalking kill can target the Forgotten or Sentry, but nothing will happen. Taking 3 remaining Forgotten and Joe actually being a Sentry, there's only a 50% chance someone will actually die.

 

At the moment, I'm inclined to trust Ashiok, mostly because I don't see a reason for Line of Making Chase in the first cycle. (Chase did confirm using a Line of Warding, so we know Ashiok wasn’t bluffing there.) I’m most suspicious of Ronald – you’re right about the Line of Vigour on the lynch target, but is there anything else you have to add to the discussion?

[Lightsworn Panda he/him]

 

Jain, Aonar’s logic in that post was exclusive – either Ash and Chase were both Forgotten, or neither were. The fact that Chase was lynched, and proven innocent, would therefore (by that logic) mean Ash is also innocent. If Aonar did get killed for that post, it could indicate two things:  Ash is a Forgotten, and Aonar’s other reasons were enough to want him silenced, or Ash is not a Forgotten, and the real Forgotten wanted to frame him. But I would trend towards the argument that Aonar is just too dangerous as a Villager to leave alive for long.

 

 

I never said I was particularly suspicious of Ashiok. In my post, I said:

 

. Also, I think it'd be a little unfair and unbalanced if the Eliminator team had a newbie and an erratic member, so Ashiok probably isn't on the Eliminator team.

 

Am I the only person that thinks there's only 2 Eliminators left? We only have 15 players in this game, and 20% of that is 3. Plus, there aren't many kill actions available to the Villagers this game.

 

Joe, Thanks for the compliment.   

 

Edit: WHY COLOUR EDITOR WHY!?

Edited October 28, 2014 by Lightsworn Panda

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I agree with you Jain, at least to some extent. Once this is all over I will be interested to see what happened to all of the non-rithmatists, since we haven't had any kills yet outside the lynches and forgotten.

[Wyrmhero he/him]

Glad we had some proper discussion overnight, to draw people out. Ashiok is certainly looking a heck of a lot more suspicious now. I'm not sure how useful using a Line of Forbiddance is though, considering if everyone did that, we would definitely invite the Chalking kill. It could be worth taking that risk though. At the very least, it's probably worth everyone who isn't on Warding duty using it. Regardless though, it's a bit of a relief to know that the Wild Chalking kill has a decent chance of not actually getting through (but not one we can rely on).

 

However, if the person we lynch uses it, then it could just set us back another day, like it did with Kal in QF2. So I would agree with Alvron's suggestion to Line of Vigor that person. If they're a Forgotten, then we need the kill, either to reduce their numbers late in the game, or to get the information for the definitely difficult next day. Hopefully someone has Advanced Rithmatics and can help us prevent a sticky situation.

 

Having said that, we still need information today. We need to get as much as possible to make the lynch, so while it might certainly be Ashiok, that doesn't mean we should stop searching there. I would like to draw out some more discussion from Araris. Do you really not have any suspicions this late in the game? That does seem strange to me, and in fact only makes you more suspicious in my eyes.

[Kasimir he/him]

I'm back, and I'm mostly pointing out some assumptions that have caught my eye. First, this is something that occurred to me mid-day and I've been considering it up to the point I got home. We know the Forgotten obviously haven't been keen on playing the Line of Vigor game. Recall that according to the write-up, there seems to have been only one Line of Vigor in operation, and that was on Cycle Three, when Aonar was killed. No one else has come forward as being hit by a Line of Vigor--and I am presuming/hoping that means that there have been no Lines of Vigor used at all. (Which was, to me, a puzzle--why did we only see the unblockable kill for Aonar?)

But that's the point, isn't it? I suspect that means the Forgotten have been playing along with our roster. And I suspect that means that we now don't quite know if the camp is vulnerable. (Even though I think that two more Non-Rithmatists existing would be an extremely weird possibility.) Because if they've been buffing our Warding numbers all this while, then there could be a hole in our Wards we don't even know of. In which case we can't just factor in getting hit by a Line of Vigor, but the possibility that there are less people Warding on a given period than we even know of.

So a brief caution here is that the odds of a Wild Chalkling kill might be even higher than we think. Second, I would recommend that whoever casts the Line of Vigor come from the set of people who can't Ward tonight, in order to not cost us a defender. In addition, whoever who can Ward, please do so. We need this badly.

Second: I'm not sure I'm particularly convinced by suggestions that using a Line of Making is something an Eliminator wouldn't do. I do think that Gamma died because the Forgotten were hunting for Non-Rithmatists and Artists among the inactive players, thinking that they were trying to lie low. And using a Line of Making early on would be a rather useful way of seeing if someone could possibly be a Non-Rithmatist and therefore a target.

Third, I don't think our ideas of what makes a well-balanced Eliminator team have anything to do with how Sart allocated roles. Correct me if I'm wrong, but we generally use a random role generator to do so. As such, worries of internal team dynamics may be well and good as personal heuristics, but I don't think they have a place in argument.

So far, inactivity isn't really a main part of my grounds for suspicion. Mostly because if I were to do so, I'd have to really end up being suspicious of everyone who wasn't Joe, Jain, or King. (Of course, I would rule out myself--Sart's PM would be sufficient for me to rule myself out, but as I previously pointed out (although perhaps not well-phrased) to Joe's invoking this--it does not form accessible justificatory grounds for everyone else excluding me from such a list and this mention therefore has no place in my discussion here.) And then I'd have to rule people out from there, when inactivity itself means a paucity of evidence. Add the fact that paucity of evidence means that when inactivity is your sole grounds for suspicion, you're basically throwing dice, and that explains how I've been trying to approach things with the material we have. (Even if we're not at lynch or die yet, I'm rather keen on avoiding more mislynches. Our window of error is closing.)

I'm not quite sold on Alvron, if only because he was the first to pick up Dui. Sure, he could've done that and then nudged Dui in the Eliminator doc to get on, but that just doesn't ring right to me. I do think that Ash has not come out looking very clean by this point, but at the same time, I suppose I should press on a little further, and see if I can open up something by throwing out a suspicion that's come up for me: I'm not quite sure what to make of Araris--he ususally comes up with all sorts of weird plans, but then again, he's been busy lately, as he mentioned, and I can understand that. He's certainly left that vote on Tory to hang, which is a little strange, as one would expect a Rithmatist's 'poke-vote' to be responsive to evidence--or in the case of the poke-vote, the person pressed actually coming on, attempting to contribute and to talk about their suspicions. It's not as if Araris/Tavi said, "Sorry guys, I can't be on again later, so I'm going to leave this to stand.", having posted some time after. So that's certainly made me raise my eyebrow because it's a cheap way to get in a vote without having to elicit real suspicion. Useful for an Eliminator. What about Tory's response didn't you like, Araris?

[Sart he/him]

If I die tonight, will my Passive Defensive Bonus still count towards the Camp's defense?

 

EDIT: '?' not '.'

The Sentry's bonus occurs at the same time as Lines of Warding. Therefore, if the Sentry dies, his bonus will still apply the cycle that he dies.

[A Joe in the Bush]

Jain might be right, about there only being two Forgotten Left. 4 of 15 would be rather large. So Far the Main suspect is Araris. And we have 8 total Semi-Active players, that means it's 6 to 2. If we can can decide who the other Forgotten probably is, we can Line of Vigor them tonight, blocking their kills, That won't block their Lines of Vigor, but we can have the other four people put up lines of Warding, ensuring that there's no Wild Kill.  

[Wyrmhero he/him]

Jain might be right, about there only being two Forgotten Left. 4 of 15 would be rather large. So Far the Main suspect is Araris. And we have 8 total Semi-Active players, that means it's 6 to 2. If we can can decide who the other Forgotten probably is, we can Line of Vigor them tonight, blocking their kills, That won't block their Lines of Vigor, but we can have the other four people put up lines of Warding, ensuring that there's no Wild Kill.  

 

Well, if there are two, that would be absolutely great. It's a lot easier to find two people who are connected than three - in which case, my suspicions would definitely fall on Araris and Ashiok, considering Ashiok's defence and Araris' briefness as of late. If there are two, then we only need one person to Line of Warding this Cycle to be safe (even if Joel isn't the Sentry, we do have one). That would, presumably, remain the same regardless of whether or not we lynch one, since the Sentry counts for the camp's defence on the Cycle they die too. In this case, we need two defenders to be safe against Lines of Vigor, and either three or four Lines of Vigor to use (I would be surprised if we had just one Non-Rithmatist).

 

However, let's be a little pessimistic here. If there are indeed three, then we need at least two people to Line of Warding this Cycle - Perhaps three, just to be safe against Lines of Vigor. So in this scenario, three people defend, the Forgotten kill someone and possibly use Lines of Vigor on who they think are our defenders. This gives us just two people free, one of whom is probably a Non-Rithmatist, and so just one Line of Vigor.

 

So in the worst-case scenario (which we should definitely plan for, I think), I would suggest that we only have one Line of Vigor spare, unless we want to risk the Wild Chalkling kill. Best case, we overshoot a little, but that's not really a bad thing, considering. The Line of Vigor can't be blocked either, so we could take a guess at who the killer is and try to stop them. But at the same time, what if we were going to lynch an Eliminator, and they block it with a Line of Forbiddance, and we didn't Line of Vigor them? I think it's a gamble either way, to be honest, and I'm not sure which would be better, considering we could just accidentally take out our camp defences if we target the wrong person. What do other people think?

[Alvron he/him]

Vote count:

Ronald (3) Joel, Tory Farth, Roddy, Tavi

Tavi (3) Wyatt, Jain, Samuel Kessen

Roddy (1) Joel,

Tory Farth (0) Tavi

 

 

I’m most suspicious of Ronald – you’re right about the Line of Vigour on the lynch target, but is there anything else you have to add to the discussion?

Nope.  I wish I did have more to contribute but I don't.

 

However I do propose that we use Lines of Vigor on Ashiok, Araris and myself this cycle.  As the top three suspects it makes sense to try and cancel any kills they might make.  Seeing that it looks like Araris will be lynched then I also think that if we have someone with Advanced Rithmatics that they should target either myself or Ashiok with a kill attempt.

 

Just so everyone knows I will be sending a Line of Vigor at Ashiok as he is the only one I have any suspicions of at moment.  But I fully understand if another wants to send one as well.

 

Edit: Updated list

Edited October 29, 2014 by Alvron

[Ashiok]

Well I'd have to say... That plan looks nice in theory. But there are what, eight of us left? Worst case scenario, none of us on the chopping block are forgotten, and in the five others, there are two-three forgotten. I'll do my math with two because I know I'm not one (although it's useless for me to keep saying so because I can't copy-paste the Role-PM). 

 

S1: none of us are forgotten. Each LoV each other, leaving five others to ward (two or three of which are forgotten). We waste a night, somebody dies. This is bad. Almost as likely as S2.

 

S2: One of us is forgotten. That one won't make the night kill, same result. This is also bad. Most likely 

 

S3: Two of us are forgotten. Then it makes sense for the outsiders to LoV, not the inside people. This is unlikely, but would be nice.

 

I hope I'm making sense. Essentially, your plan calls for all the forgotten to be on the chopping block right now. If you're not a forgotten, this plan makes no sense. If you are, not all of your teammates are on the block. Makes more sense for you to be forgotten in this scenario.

 

In conclusion, Ronald, I'm pretty sure you're Forgotten.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Kas, I'm not quite sure what you mean by what don't I like about Tory's post. Unless I'm way more tired then I think I am, he hadn't shown up when I made that vote. I just now however realized that he has posted since I made that vote, which was its main purpose, so here: Tory Anyway, much of my suspicion was focused on Joe for a while because I was confused as to why he revealed his supposed status as the sentry. However, by now if we had someone else who was the real sentry then they probably would have said something to the rest of us. I currently trust Jain the most, after Joe, largely because he is the only person who brought up that there might be only two forgotten, and I don't know why the forgotten would point something out like that if they knew we were wrong all along. As far as who to lynch tonight, there are, as people have pointed out, 3 targets. I am going to vote for Ronald for the following reasons: Ash made an argument that had some intent to defend me, although it wasn't directed directly toward people who voted for me. Hopefully, that means Ash and I are on the same team, so I am not inclined to vote that direction. I also don't think that using advanced rithmatics at this point would be all that useful, since its really just a shot in the dark. Also, invluding yourslef in the list of people to be targeted doesn't make sense. Regardless of which team you are on, it is harmful to them for you to die, unless you are trying to cover something up, which I can only think of an eliminator doing anyway. So, we are 3 for me and 3 for Ronald, so somebody needs to break the tie that isn't one of us two.

[Ashiok]

Ok, Araris, what you're saying makes no sense. So if you read my recent post, you'll see why his plan benifits the eliminators unless they are all on the chopping block, which they clearly aren't. Also, reasons for pointing out that there might be two forgotten include: Complacency in Lines of Warding, being able to propose a plan hinging on having two forgotten, and finally gaining trust. But, seing as that is just one productive thing in a long list of things Jain has done that have been Pro-VIllage, we can assume he is clean for now.

 

Where was I going with this again? Oh yeah, right. Araris is being a bit off. More so than usual. However, the information gained from lynching Ronald is greater. I'm gonna want somebody like wyrm to double check, but if my math is right, killing Ronald (and finding out his alignment) would soft-clear me and Araris (if Ronald is a forgotten)

 

Of course, this could all be an elaborate ploy with miss-information between me, Jain and Ronald, but it's not. I'm not collaborative enough to think of that and enact it.