Long Game 100 - Death is Lighter Than a Feather

[Mat he/him]

2 hours ago, Aeternum said:

I think I flip tomorrow regardless. My flip would clear the possible Forsaken world, because CadCom is probably not Forsaken, which leaves just me as the only other option. Insert a sad gif here

I meant, what do you think about the likelihood of a Forsaken being in the game, just on like a distro level 

56 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

I'm RBM's Aes Sedai. Might as well claim since everyone else is.

Did you take an action yesterday? Nice if we can double confirm CodCam’s claim.

Can’t decide how I feel about having literally the same reads list as Stick lol

[Aeternum they/them, he/him]

1 minute ago, Mat said:

I meant, what do you think about the likelihood of a Forsaken being in the game, just on like a distro level 

Did you take an action yesterday? Nice if we can double confirm CodCam’s claim.

Can’t decide how I feel about having literally the same reads list as Stick lol

Remember how I forgot about day end, yeah I didn't submit any actions.

I don't know what to say about the distro / have no particular opinion and don't feel like analyzing it. Assume worst case, hope for best case, etc.

Wow I look wolfy today.

[Stick. she/her]

7 hours ago, Mat said:

Can’t decide how I feel about having literally the same reads list as Stick lol

nice pocket 

[Kasimir he/him]

12 hours ago, CadCom said:

Cadcom, Kas, and RBM have claimed specific good guy roles or actions or been tentatively cleared as such.

I wanted to remind you though - Amrylin is not in fact a good guy role (it can be either alignment) and I'd argue the votejacking here is neutral, just consistent with my reads. (Edit: To precisify - I had Wierdo in nulls so was willing to switch off, but my main priority was not killing Bee, because Bee looked more likely Village to me after the claim, and not letting Mat die as Mat was the next CW and he seemed Village to me too. I did look at Aet but felt bad about D1ing a busy Aet, so followed onto Wierdo. Votejacking Wierdo was mostly to not create an unnecessary zero on a train and get people sussing that player unnecessarily since I hadn't planned to claim unless something was off. I'd've preferred Aet if I registered Aet wasn't voting because that might be more informative of whether Aet's vote exists or no.) TUA has considered E!Amrylin distros before, as the mastersheet of LG88 shows.

12 hours ago, Stick. said:

wait brainfart lol forsaken can have warders

Forsaken is basically an E!Aes Sedai + role IMO. It's hard to say whether it would exist (Araris leans no right now) but my claiming Amrylin has effectively meant Aes Sedai is the only Forsaken claim route left, due to CadCom (if we are all in collusion then you are thinking of a team of three.)

@Aeoryi According to the clarification from TUA, odds of a linked Earthquake or a concentration Earthquake are both 40%. While I would prefer at least 50% odds, it's not the worst.

Multi-Harden Air stack would be:

Harden1 = 85% - 10% = 75%
Harden2 = 60% - 10% = 50%

I've checked and Harden3 is a bit too risky, and decreases the odds of Harden1 and Harden2 as well.

Edited to add:

In general, my view is there's no utility from linking to Earthquake or any complexity 5 weave if you are village. I only ask because I personally cannot do that weave due to a cursed statblock. Linking gives you 40% success odds but you might as well just concentrate. You then aren't at the mercy of what your partner wants to do in a coin toss, even if the Villager has an edge.

Edited to add 2:

@Aeternum If you are an Aes Sedai, what are your plans for tonight? I hope you will still be sending in actions if you are Village.

Edited to add 3:

I think where I am at the moment:

V: CadCom, Bee
V-: Stick, Mat, Aeo
Null: Aet, Araris

I am not sure Aet is a hit, and I don't like everyone has the same tiers thereabouts, as that indicates potential groupthink. Aet is in my nulls largely because I read Aet's posts and think Village, largely because of how much Aet isn't trying right now but also think of the striking playstyle difference and think E. I can't decide if Aet's flatout no WiM is just Aet really hating an Elim rand, or you know - just what it says on the tin, and E!Aet would try harder to be placatory here.

Edited to add 4:

@Araris Valerian, @Stick. Why did you both 180 on the Forsaken issue, btw?

Edited May 30 by Kasimir

[The Unknown Order he/him]

Cycle ended.

[The Unknown Order he/him]

Day Two - Dead, and Missing, Forever

~

The mobs had dispersed throughout the night, but their dispersal had made them weak. Alone. Free for the Black Ajah to prey on. 

A novice was the one who discovered the body. Her scream woke up every Aes Sedai nearby. From then, the awakening spread like the plague throughout the tower. They swarmed the floor where CadCom’s body had been found. It had all the makings of a mob.

The Amyrlin forced her way through the crowd, her investigators flanking her. They forced them out of the victim's room. 

CadCom’s body lay mangled against the ground, his eyes wide in horror. The rest of the room was searched with only just enough evidence. 

Soon they left the room, and the Amyrlin announced that the victim was innocent. She and her retinue threw up protection. The mob whipped, searching for a new target for their collective anger.

Meanwhile, the Amyrlin asked her retinue.

“Where is Araris Valerian?”

~

She’s not a woman,… She’s an Aes Sedai. Don’t think of her as a woman.

~

CadCom has been killed! He was an Aes Sedai of the White Tower.

Araris Valerian has been killed! He was the Lord of Luck.

Some things to note:

• PMs are essentially closed. You may only use any Warder PMs you may have been sent, though you can send in your actions to be able to PM next turn. Previously opened PMs may continue to be used only if one member has used the action

• There is a two vote minimum, the top player must have two votes to die

• Ties of the vote will be resolved by a coinflip, make your sacrifices or, if you're not on good terms with the gods, I do take bribes

• This cycle will end at 7:30 AM Mountain Time on Saturday the 1st of June

• Try not to die intravenously, and have fun!

Rules doc for your convenience:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1RUs0JIvdKusLrELi6kEZs9LZUdpeXh-_GB8oW2c5ejA/edit?usp=drivesdk

Player List:

Spoiler

• @Aeoryi
• @Aeternum
• @RoyalBeeMage
• @Stick.
• @Mat
• CadCom Aes Sedai
• @Kasimir
• Wierdo Aes Sedai
• Araris Valerian Lord of Luck

Please message me if I've missed anything!

[Stick. she/her]

Whoops. That’s my bad araris lol

 

Aeternum

[Kasimir he/him]

Stick..... >>

That's like famous last words...

CadCom won the link unfortunately so my heal didn't go through. RNGesus having it out for me this game. Doubly annoying because he probably had results. 

[Stick. she/her]

@Aeoryi I need a poe of 3 players from you, thanks  

EDIT
…thoughts on a mass claim? 

[Kasimir he/him]

10 minutes ago, Stick. said:

…thoughts on a mass claim? 

I'm of the view we should do it as everyone's more or less claimed except Mat and Aeo. Also numbers are dire, and Araris IMO was an avoidable casualty given verifiability, and that's partly on me.

I'll admit here that my main reason for V!reading you is in part the fact you can kill, but that really depends on your views of how committed TUA is to going with RNGesus's statblock decisions.

My thoughts on our situation:

A. You know the element-sized problem with our statblock. If Aet is Village, we need Aet on board weaving because that might make up for our deficiency.

B. 4 v 2 right now means I have to say straightforwardly that we enter a losing position if you are Evil and we don't exe you today, given some parameters, largely to do with Elims having two NKs, and Village not actually in a position to block. 

C. All of these point to me that a massclaim might as well happen.

[Stick. she/her]

Hmm yea, so then I’d ask @Mat and aeo to also claim what actions they took yesterday 

 

@RoyalBeeMage has aeternum been villagery in your PM? Same question to @Aeternum with regards to royalbee

[Kasimir he/him]

I'm holding my vote pending a clarification from TUA.

Edited to add:

Tbh let me spell it out. TUA has stated Lord of Luck is immune to weaves. You killing Araris with a weave is then odd. I'm aware there could be extenuating circumstances so I am asking for a ruling. I don't see another kill role in this game, so if Lord of Luck is immune to all killing weaves, then I am voting for you.

There's a Chinese proverb-story for this:

Quote

The origin of the expression lies in a story transmitted to us by the philosopher Master Han Fei 韓非子 (d.233 BCE), though he may not have invented it. The story goes that a weapons dealer was drumming up business in the marketplace. Holding up one of his shields, he bragged that it was so sturdy no spear could pierce it. A short while later, he raised one of his spears and bragged that it was so sharp no shield could withstand it. An attentive bystander then asked him, ‘What would happen if you used your spear to pierce your shield?’ 以子之矛陷子之楯, 何如.¹ The weapons dealer had no way of responding and the expression maodun (or sometimes zixiang maodun 自相矛盾) has passed into the language, with the meaning of ‘self-contradictory’ or, eventually, ‘internally conflicted’.

 

Edited May 30 by Kasimir

[Stick. she/her]

Reread what balefire does… it’s an unstoppable kill  

i used ALL my power to get rid of our biggest threat: @Araris Valerian 

 

(soz once again lol) 

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Stick. said:

Reread what balefire does… it’s an unstoppable kill  

But it's still a weave. That's why I said it's like the proverb-story of the unstoppable spear and the impenetrable shield: which one wins? Lord of Luck specifically says no weave affects you.

Edited to add:

4 minutes ago, Stick. said:

i used ALL my power to get rid of our biggest threat: @Araris Valerian 

You were too powerful

But yeah honestly that's also what I'm hinting at. Essentially since you can Balefire, I think that essentially means one unstoppable Elim kill if you're Evil. Even worse in a V!Aet landscape because with some luck, you get a 2-for-1 shot there. I do feel it is weird to give the Elims this level of power and this makes me lean Village but it fundamentally depends on TUA's RNG doctrine which I'm not too sure about, but also...the balefire ruling. If he says balefire overrides foxhead, fine. If it doesn't, then to me the only way Araris dies is by NK and then it makes me wonder if you balefired CadCom instead. Balefire being unstoppable should mean that nothing else, including redirects, stops you.

I just feel it's not intuitive to me balefire should beat weave immunity because it's weave-classed. But I could see a ruling to either effect.

[Stick. she/her]

A Warder’s Aes Sedai sounds like a comfortable role for an elim to be, right? They are protected every other night, and in case they die they also take a villager down with them. 

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, Stick. said:

A Warder’s Aes Sedai sounds like a comfortable role for an elim to be, right? They are protected every other night, and in case they die they also take a villager down with them. 

Possible? It's a net zero, but would almost make me wonder if there's more tankiness built into this ruleset. Putting our cards on the table: CadCom could Heal but can't self-target. You and I both can't Heal, and if we link, this gets chancy. There's a chance we screwed ourselves over with the Wierdo pivot ig. I'm choosing to believe TUA might have annulled statblocks that were overly kayana so... ???

Like the Warder self-protects and protects an Elim so most of the time their protect is useless in this set-up. The Elim is never going to kill you because they hope their death will take you down with them.

[Stick. she/her]

Kinda think it’s gotta be aeo+mat if not aeternum 

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, Stick. said:

Kinda think it’s gotta be aeo+mat if not aeternum 

I'm getting QF64 flashbacks, whichever it was, the one we all spiderman point memed and it was TUA all along.

Which is to say I just don't feel comfortable with my view of the game right now. 

Edited to add:

Going to see if I can sub some of this back into D1 and see what comes out of it. I recall you or someone else sussed Bee for being a bit too quick to feel the case against Araris was vacuous. Gonna look at it especially since Araris took quite some flak.

Edited to add 2:

CadCom feels like the obvious doctrinal shot here IMO. Don't feel there's a lot to be gleaned off this NK - CadCom was lead Village read for everyone on the basis of the D1 Circle of Frost.

Edited May 30 by Kasimir

[Stick. she/her]

Yeha im ngl royalbee’s posts have pinged me the most, like, socially. Mechanically they’ve got things going for them 

[Kasimir he/him]

Something I've been mulling: do you feel there's a pragmatic case for resolving Aet near lylo? The thought being that if we are at lylo, then resolving Aet is no big deal anyway because even if V!Bee dies, lol we were screwed anyway. The issue I have is that I don't know I want to artificially bracket <Aet/Bee> for the moment.

1 minute ago, Stick. said:

Yeha im ngl royalbee’s posts have pinged me the most, like, socially. Mechanically they’ve got things going for them 

Sort of where I'm at but less so. Bee's all over the place for me but I leaned V on the basis of a few factors last cycle, but not overwhelmingly so, and it does involve the Warder claim. Aet just kind of replied and said 'Interesting' which is one of those times I'm like 'bro if you got a better read on Bee, help me out here.'

[Aeoryi she/her]

1 hour ago, Stick. said:

 I need a poe of 3 players from you, thanks

You/Aeternum/Bee

 

[Kasimir he/him]

Edited to add: 

Resisting the thought that a nice counterpoint to Amrylin votejacking would be Elim night dominance >> 

[Stick. she/her]

2 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

You/Aeternum/Bee

 

Fair, what actions did you take last night? I killed araris and kas attempted a heal on cadcom 

[Aeoryi she/her]

10 minutes ago, Stick. said:

Kinda think it’s gotta be aeo+mat if not aeternum 

Now that would be an epic Elim team. Too bad that's not the case.

1 hour ago, Stick. said:

Whoops. That’s my bad araris lol

Not a bad shot tbh.

Just now, Stick. said:

Fair, what actions did you take last night? I killed araris and kas attempted a heal on cadcom 

I did not take any actions.

 

[Stick. she/her]

5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Something I've been mulling: do you feel there's a pragmatic case for resolving Aet near lylo?

I think we are potentially near lylo rn

1 minute ago, Aeoryi said:

did not take any actions.

hmmyes spoken like a true Myrddraal