Long Game 100 - Death is Lighter Than a Feather

[Aeternum they/them, he/him]

54 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Is there really a point?

With all due respect, I've just come off a game with V!Aet. This isn't his first rodeo and his analysis patterns and Aeo's link both indicate he has played extensively on MU. Extensively enough that:

A. He knows exactly what the stakes are for the Village right now,

B. Is therefore, with all due respect as I myself had 0 WiM early on, making a deliberate choice if Village to play like a Jester/Fool.

I think by this point asking him to make a good Village case isn't really the point. He knows the score and the situation as well as we do. 

The sense that this is a deliberate choice is what hardens my perspective of this exe because I'm perfectly sure we all know what's at stake. I can respect Aet's decision to go to soft openwoofing here. I just don't feel requesting him to try just a bit more for the Village is helpful at this point.

Edited to add:

In a subset of players, I could see having to remind them my vote is never locked until EoD and that moreover if they are Village, I am open to persuasion and that they should leave us with the best positioning to go forwards. I'm trying to phrase this carefully because as I said, I had 0 WiM early on and I hate being E in general and you remember me in Striker's MR. Utter disaster. 

With all of that, maybe more than anything else, I cannot believe an experienced player who is aware of the tightness of the numbers needs to be cajoled and begged into being Village if Village, or reminded of the need to help the Village after death if they have accepted the misexe as inevitable. Perhaps it really is negative WiM. But it's a bridge too far for me.

Dw Stick, I can try harder for the village:

Since Kas is basically giving me permission to openwolf, I'm gonna go make more memes for the elim doc

"Extensively" is a huge stretch considering that I have only 1 completed game on MU. I hope you're also not calling me an experienced player (I have 3 completed games total). The environment is also a lot different - I thought I'd play better in this game because I don't play well on MU but have been learning stuff that I want to apply to these games, but reading my role PM this game was slightly disheartening because I figured there was a very, very low chance of me making it past d2.

Confused on how my analysis patterns match me playing extensively on MU, though. I swear I've gotten worse since I started playing there lol.

Anyways, v!Aet is on strike so e!Aet tried his best.

And sorry RBM

[Aeoryi she/her]

48 minutes ago, Stick. said:

Nice try 

Thank you

[Stick. she/her]

Oh well. I was hoping you’d spew some players for us if you thought there was a chance you could talk us out of exeing you today  I also just like keeping a conversation going in these games  

36 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

I swear I've gotten worse since I started playing there lol.

Haven’t we all xD

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, Stick. said:

Oh well. I was hoping you’d spew some players for us if you thought there was a chance you could talk us out of exeing you today  I also just like keeping a conversation going in these games  

Haven’t we all xD

Sorry. I was just feeling increasingly frustrated and thinking aloud. 

EDIT: @Aeternum Your account has a three digit number of posts. I assumed it parlayed into multiple games. Long story can't say more for reasons but it wasn't me who brought it up. Essentially even disregarding MU, no one who tried the post reads in your D1 alone in Drake's game should be treated like a tyro is my view. If you can perform that sort of analysis, then you know enough about the game dynamics to know what the value play here is.

Edited May 30 by Kasimir

[Aeternum they/them, he/him]

7 minutes ago, Stick. said:

Oh well. I was hoping you’d spew some players for us if you thought there was a chance you could talk us out of exeing you today  I also just like keeping a conversation going in these games  

Haven’t we all xD

I've been trying not to

MU sometimes makes me question my sanity.

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Sorry. I was just feeling increasingly frustrated and thinking aloud. 

Interesting

EDIT

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Sorry. I was just feeling increasingly frustrated and thinking aloud. 

EDIT: @Aeternum Your account has a three digit number of posts. I assumed it parlayed into multiple games. Long story can't say more for reasons but it wasn't me who brought it up. Essentially even disregarding MU, no one who tried the post reads in your D1 alone in Drake's game should be treated like a tyro is my view. If you can perform that sort of analysis, then you know enough about the game dynamics to know what the value play here is.

I have that many posts because I just post a whole lot of nothing, generally. Idk how much I can say without breaking OGI, but I am in a bunch of current games as well, that's why I have a lot of posts.

Uh don't look at my games.

Edited May 30 by Aeternum

[Kasimir he/him]

1 hour ago, Aeoryi said:

I honestly do not see the Aeo/Aet e/e allegations here.

  Reveal hidden contents

The real question is if we're hunting for Aeternum's partner, who should we be looking for? 

I personally think another weaver makes sense to be teamed with Aeternum, which makes me more suspicious of stick. I do agree that Bee doesn't make sense as a partner if they are warders, but the idea of it is that Bee and Aeternum are faking being warders to be not paired. That does seem like a bit of a reach, so instead I'm just going to say that 4/9 weavers in a game this size is amendable, especially if the weavers on the townsided have higher stats, and the weavers on the Elim side have less than average stats- of course, that means they could've linked up on N1 and shot Cadcom with Fireball! And carried out the physical kill on araris but that means stick is a liar and therefore it has to be stick.

Understand?

To be honest if Aet was truthful, I'm slightly suspicious of Mat. It's an if yes but largely for reasons to do with the claimed Shield. Both Stick and Mat knew I was looking for partners to Heal CadCom. Shielding strikes me as just the sort of thing you do to try to block me from Healing CadCom, though I agree it is certainly possible the Elims just took the stab anyway. I think you would have to for instance. 

There's no point in linking btw. If you hypothesise a 2 Channeller world, then one of Stick/Aet must have busted stats. The only world in which they can link and Fireball CadCom is one in which one of them has 5 Fire. Anything less will objectively not allow the kill. A one stat increase also doesn't work because it affects your lowest stat which a 4 or 5 Fire will never be. Furthermore, linking only gets them to 40% success rate. 35% if one of them puts in the kill. If so why even link? Just concentrate and let the other guy stab. You still get 40%. But then this hypothesised scenario doesn't require Channeller #2 at all.

But I also don't really believe Stick and Aet are teamed. I'm looking at the N1 bit where Stick calls out Aet's read inconsistency on them—that's not an E/E interaction at all. If it were, they would make more hay of it D1.

[Aeternum they/them, he/him]

I don't think I should say anything game-related anymore so have fun everyone  

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Aeternum said:

I don't think I should say anything game-related anymore so have fun everyone  

You can always openwoof ig. Drake claims my opinion of being Elim will change when I openwoof for the first time I think his husky braincell strikes again.

[Aeternum they/them, he/him]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

You can always openwoof ig. Drake claims my opinion of being Elim will change when I openwoof for the first time I think his husky braincell strikes again.

Heheheh, that would be funny to see.

[Stick. she/her]

5 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

I don't think I should say anything game-related anymore so have fun everyone  

o7

EDIT

@Mat do u remember why u had aeo and aeternum as unpaired?

[Aeoryi she/her]

19 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

You can always openwoof ig. Drake claims my opinion of being Elim will change when I openwoof for the first time I think his husky braincell strikes again.

Open wolfing is shallow satisfaction IMO. The real best experience is to completely snow the other team and leave them feeling outplayed.

[Kasimir he/him]

46 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

To be honest if Aet was truthful, I'm slightly suspicious of Mat. It's an if yes but largely for reasons to do with the claimed Shield. Both Stick and Mat knew I was looking for partners to Heal CadCom. Shielding strikes me as just the sort of thing you do to try to block me from Healing CadCom, though I agree it is certainly possible the Elims just took the stab anyway. I think you would have to for instance. 

There's no point in linking btw. If you hypothesise a 2 Channeller world, then one of Stick/Aet must have busted stats. The only world in which they can link and Fireball CadCom is one in which one of them has 5 Fire. Anything less will objectively not allow the kill. A one stat increase also doesn't work because it affects your lowest stat which a 4 or 5 Fire will never be. Furthermore, linking only gets them to 40% success rate. 35% if one of them puts in the kill. If so why even link? Just concentrate and let the other guy stab. You still get 40%. But then this hypothesised scenario doesn't require Channeller #2 at all.

But I also don't really believe Stick and Aet are teamed. I'm looking at the N1 bit where Stick calls out Aet's read inconsistency on them—that's not an E/E interaction at all. If it were, they would make more hay of it D1.

Hold up.

There's a bigger problem here IMO. Why would they Fireball CadCom specifically? That hypothesis suggests they know Araris was Lord of Luck. There's nothing particularly gained by Fireballing CadCom in particular.

I'm willing to relook Stick with everyone else when considering potential partners but it just feels odd when Lord of Luck wasn't really on anyone's mind and Araris isn't the claim happy sort.

I'm also wondering about the basis on which we say there's a asymmetry in stats? Like...the rules state:

Quote

0-5 each Air, Fire, Water, and Earth. There will be one stat with the value zero or one, two with the value two or three, and one with the value four or five. Spirit is 1 through 5, but completely random comparatively to the rest of the stats.

On paper my stats look fine—they block me from weaves because my 1 is in Air, which means my Fire and Water stats are irrelevant, and I got unlucky and had a 4 in Earth instead of 5 which locks me out of Earthquake. With a 1 in Spirit, my isolation from the magic system is complete

I guess what I'm saying is cracked stats feels relative. Everyone has a megastat. Mine is unuseful and Aet, Stick, and CadCom all claim 5s in Spirit. We know CadCom's megastat was a Water 5. We don't have data on Wierdo. I think it's clear there aren't two Fire 5s to go around or we'd be seeing more fireballs IMO. I'm not sure therefore there's a strong distribution to be had.

EDIT: And honestly if TUA allowed Elims to have two Fire 5s, we need to speak to the manager >>

Edit 2: @Stick. Question for you. You said you were considering Healing or using Harden Air. When I asked you how you expected to do it with 1 Air, you said you expected to Link. How exactly did you expect to link when you claim to not have put in a PM order?

@Aeoryi fwiw if your 2 Channeller theory is correct though we are probably in a tight spot unless you can channel because if they can both use Compulsion, we are looking at a bigger vote swing. Compulsion also beats my votejack.

Edited May 30 by Kasimir

[RoyalBeeMage he/him]

8 hours ago, Stick. said:

Hmm yea, so then I’d ask @Mat and aeo to also claim what actions they took yesterday 

 

@RoyalBeeMage has aeternum been villagery in your PM? Same question to @Aeternum with regards to royalbee

IMO yes they have been

7 hours ago, Stick. said:

A Warder’s Aes Sedai sounds like a comfortable role for an elim to be, right? They are protected every other night, and in case they die they also take a villager down with them. 

Actually I completely agree with you on this. E!aet would be able to sit there comfortably 

7 hours ago, Stick. said:

Yeha im ngl royalbee’s posts have pinged me the most, like, socially. Mechanically they’ve got things going for them 

How do you mean? 
 

Anyone have a VC? 

57 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Hold up.

There's a bigger problem here IMO. Why would they Fireball CadCom specifically? That hypothesis suggests they know Araris was Lord of Luck. There's nothing particularly gained by Fireballing CadCom in particular.

I'm willing to relook Stick with everyone else when considering potential partners but it just feels odd when Lord of Luck wasn't really on anyone's mind and Araris isn't the claim happy sort.

I'm also wondering about the basis on which we say there's a asymmetry in stats? Like...the rules state:

On paper my stats look fine—they block me from weaves because my 1 is in Air, which means my Fire and Water stats are irrelevant, and I got unlucky and had a 4 in Earth instead of 5 which locks me out of Earthquake. With a 1 in Spirit, my isolation from the magic system is complete

I guess what I'm saying is cracked stats feels relative. Everyone has a megastat. Mine is unuseful and Aet, Stick, and CadCom all claim 5s in Spirit. We know CadCom's megastat was a Water 5. We don't have data on Wierdo. I think it's clear there aren't two Fire 5s to go around or we'd be seeing more fireballs IMO. I'm not sure therefore there's a strong distribution to be had.

EDIT: And honestly if TUA allowed Elims to have two Fire 5s, we need to speak to the manager >>

Edit 2: @Stick. Question for you. You said you were considering Healing or using Harden Air. When I asked you how you expected to do it with 1 Air, you said you expected to Link. How exactly did you expect to link when you claim to not have put in a PM order?

@Aeoryi fwiw if your 2 Channeller theory is correct though we are probably in a tight spot unless you can channel because if they can both use Compulsion, we are looking at a bigger vote swing. Compulsion also beats my votejack.

This is why I am grateful to not have to worry about weaving. To much math involved 

[Aeternum they/them, he/him]

Just now, RoyalBeeMage said:

Anyone have a VC? 

Many votes for me, uhhh yeah probably all the votes on me.

Spoiler

Aet not self voting is very funny, it's an e!Aet thing to not do so

 

[RoyalBeeMage he/him]

31 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

Many votes for me, uhhh yeah probably all the votes on me.

  Reveal hidden contents

Aet not self voting is very funny, it's an e!Aet thing to not do so

 

Oof what did you do?

[Aeternum they/them, he/him]

6 minutes ago, RoyalBeeMage said:

Oof what did you do?

I'm an elim

[RoyalBeeMage he/him]

2 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

I'm an elim

When/why did you announce that you are an elim aeternum? and to think that I was about to defend you. I don’t care if I die because of your death so long as the village outs one of the elims 

[Aeternum they/them, he/him]

1 minute ago, RoyalBeeMage said:

When/why did you announce that you are an elim aeternum? and to think that I was about to defend you. I don’t care if I die because of your death so long as the village outs one of the elims 

Like last page I think. It's not like it was that secret - I was basically outted already.

How on earth were you going to defend me

[RoyalBeeMage he/him]

1 minute ago, Aeternum said:

Like last page I think. It's not like it was that secret - I was basically outted already.

How on earth were you going to defend me

I have no clue but I was going to try!

[Aeoryi she/her]

3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

fwiw if your 2 Channeller theory is correct though we are probably in a tight spot unless you can channel because if they can both use Compulsion, we are looking at a bigger vote swing. Compulsion also beats my votejack.

If no one is lying, my role implies there is two channelers

[RoyalBeeMage he/him]

3 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

If no one is lying, my role implies there is two channelers

and your role is?

[The Unknown Order he/him]

Vote Tally

Aeternum (3): Kasimir, Mat, RoyalBeeMage

Aeoryi (1): Stick.

Courtesy of the glorious Tallybot. 

Don't forget to get your votes and actions in!

[Kasimir he/him]

6 hours ago, Aeoryi said:

If no one is lying, my role implies there is two channelers

How does it do so?

Edited to add:

Specifically I don't see any role except Araris's as pointing me towards a two-Channeller team. Illuminator is a double-block, and I don't feel there's a Village-leaning excuse for not physicalblocking last Night. You also cited reservations about Mat's role. Fundamentally if you want me to get on board with a distro argument here, you need to be specific because this feels fishy.

Edited to add 2:

8 hours ago, RoyalBeeMage said:

This is why I am grateful to not have to worry about weaving. To much math involved 

Be me. Have stats so cursed I can't actually channel any weave at all and yet somehow I'm still having to care about weave maths.

Edited to add 3:

2 hours ago, The Unknown Ajah said:

Vote Tally

Aeternum (3): Kasimir, Mat, RoyalBeeMage

Aeoryi (1): Stick.

Courtesy of the glorious Tallybot. 

Don't forget to get your votes and actions in!

I need to check the regex for Aeternum. It looks like Stick's vote doesn't count for some reason? I can't see her taking it back but it should be 4 on Aet AFAICT right now. 

No, it's 5 - Aeo's vote not reflected either. I think the regex doesn't accept Aeternum. I'll fix it in a bit.

@Aeoryi Second question I suppose. In your theorised two channeller world, how do you propose to stop them from Compulsion-jacking the vote and hammering to kill anyone not Aet? Keep in mind I can't actually make any weaves. In your Stick/Aet world, one thing I see happening:

Compulsion-hammer you -> 3/2 NK + Fireball, win.

Alternatively:

Compulsion-hammer you -> 3/2 NK (Fireball failed) -> 2/2 Compulsion-hammer Mat and Bee, win.

I would still like more to go on than "trust me, my role which I can't talk about suggests two channellers" but I think a two channeller world presents immediate tactical problems when I can't do any weave, and when Compulsion beats Amrylin votejack each time.

Edited to add X:

My point of bringing this up isn't to not vote Aet. I firmly believe we have to vote Aet. It's to point to two things: first, are there countermeasures we can take in a two channeller world? If so, we should discuss them, as well as the reasons for thinking two channeller (I'm not convinced when it's just a 'trust me my role says so.') If not, and the game doesn't end with this exe, doesn't that indicate there's prima facie reason to think the two channeller world doesn't hold? In most worlds, Stick and Aet likely have the stats for Compulsion, meaning that simpliciter we cannot stop a hammer. So what do you propose we do then?

If Aeo is a channeller, that's one thing. Mat and Bee have claimed non-channellers. If Stick is Village (my current line of thought), then obviously we have more room to block in a two-channeller world, e.g. / i.e. Stick Shielding Aet.

Edited to add X+1:

@The Unknown Ajah Tallybot is getting fixed, courtesy of Drake who is irrationally upset/wrathful and of the view that Aeo and Stick are E/E for murdering Tallybot in the exact same way  

This just in: the issue was that both Aeo and Stick had satanic votes that Tallybot thought was 'chocolate' rather than red. This raises all sorts of questions about Tallybot's culinary tastes but probably just means that Stick and Aeo have been corrupting poor innocent murderpuppy Tallybot with all sorts of vile blood-slathered candy.

Actually I quote Drake:

Spoiler

 

Edited May 31 by Kasimir

[Stick. she/her]

9 hours ago, Kasimir said:

When I asked you how you expected to do it with 1 Air, you said you expected to Link. How exactly did you expect to link when you claim to not have put in a PM order?

u already proposed wanting to link remember? 
 

putting in a shield weave targeting aeternum today then, to counter vote manip 

 

8 hours ago, RoyalBeeMage said:

How do you mean? 

i meant that u being a warder looks villagery for u

[Kasimir he/him]

53 minutes ago, Stick. said:

u already proposed wanting to link remember? 
 

putting in a shield weave targeting aeternum today then, to counter vote manip 

 

i meant that u being a warder looks villagery for u

What do you make of Aeo pushing you this Turn? Do you suppose she's trying to get a Shield on you for tonight?

Edit:

I'll add an Illuminator also makes sense on an Elim team. One channeller, one role that can shut down weaves and physical actions. I don't feel it's hard and fast here and I suspect Aeo is actually an Illuminator which explains why she doesn't distinguish between weaveblocking and physicalblocking.

Edited May 31 by Kasimir