Long Game 100 - Death is Lighter Than a Feather

[Stick. she/her]

yea it's possible. she's also pushing a 2 channeler theory so that checks out

 

her push on me was bc she needs to push a channeler as per her theory and her only options are u or me. nice try like i said because idt she believes it

 

in any case my poe after aet dies is just aeo/mat anyway and neither of them claim to be channelers sooooo

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Stick. said:

yea it's possible. she's also pushing a 2 channeler theory so that checks out

 

her push on me was bc she needs to push a channeler as per her theory and her only options are u or me. nice try like i said because idt she believes it

 

in any case my poe after aet dies is just aeo/mat anyway and neither of them claim to be channelers sooooo

Fair. Btw did you know balefire auto kills a Myderaal but not a Blademaster? 

I'm considering Aeo over Mat very slightly for the moment but this has to do with thoughts about the sort of team that would have Aet in this kind of position because I don't fully think Aet was actually screwed and I struggle to see Mat okay with this.

[Stick. she/her]

yea i was thinking along those lines but didnt wanna bring it up as a point,,, too meta game-y

[Kasimir he/him]

5 minutes ago, Stick. said:

yea i was thinking along those lines but didnt wanna bring it up as a point,,, too meta game-y

MU versus SE  

Well, add the level of FUD as well. Mat voted Aet before it was that foregone, whereas Aeo aggressively brawled you. IMO the movement here feels more like Aeo resisting the Aet exe than Mat because of that. But I'm waiting for TUA to reply as I may have a theory.

Really I'm V!reading you on a few grounds, having re-read, and Bee blatantly wanting to save Aet doesn't feel staged imo.

[Stick. she/her]

17 hours ago, Aeoryi said:

Stick I do need your reasons for why you'd shoot Araris and not, say... Aeternum, who you had a chronic suspicion of for seemingly all of n1?

this also feels like tmi on aet being an elim - not sure why she'd push the point before knowing aet's alignment for certain

[Kasimir he/him]

47 minutes ago, Stick. said:

this also feels like tmi on aet being an elim - not sure why she'd push the point before knowing aet's alignment for certain

Agreed. Well, my objections to the Araris shot weren't the ones she raised. So yeah I could see that. 

Fundamentally I agree with the <Aeo, Mat> PoE here IMO. I think disqualifying Bee is something everyone else generally agrees on but the last interaction here alone doesn't look E/E. Tbh the main thing I have is it sometimes feels like Mat's just vibing but that's not a bad place to be when Aet was under pressure for two back-to-back Turns: in that sense, Aeo feels more like she has an agenda to push and I'm considering if her pushing you is less two channeller theory and more an attempt to get rid of balefire before it comes back on the table tonight since it can't be roleblocked.

It's awkward when I'm more willing to read Mat positively because he's not trying to sell me anything, but it is what it is, I suppose  

Edited to add:

Mat's Aet megapost here. 

Stuff I'm noticing:

On 5/30/2024 at 1:14 AM, Mat said:

Doubles down on Araris defense here (which I actually read as a + for Aet-- their previous Araris statement was weak enough to easily walk back, and even under Aeo's fire they didn't). Again, unsure if e!Aet is the type to defend, bus, or ignore teammates, or anything in between.

Notable since we now know E!Aet - this suggests high confidence but also little perceived threat from Aeo. I re-read Mat's link but don't actually see what he's referring to btw - @Mat, can you sort of walk me through your thinking? Also why you just went on Aet first thing today, please.

What I'm seeing are non-interactions with surprisingly little contact IMO - in general, Aet backs down and Aet and Aeo seldom clash.

On 5/27/2024 at 2:58 PM, Aeternum said:

I like Araris's thinking there but it is very late and I can't think properly enough to give a coherent actual response.

Aet says this but still has Araris in nulls which is ? (not an Araris defense!)

On 5/28/2024 at 2:35 AM, Aeternum said:

Mat's posting is ok, CadCom's is mehh but I will look again when I'm on my laptop later. No opinion on Kas yet. Araris is hard to read for me. Stick seems mostly cool for now. Aeo is... Aeo. RBM's ok for now. Weirdo is meh for now.

As a side comment, Aet has managed to avoid giving any negative reads at this juncture. My sense at this point is that Aet is more likely to avoid offering too quick a Village read of a teammate, especially given the high volume of more or less null/wash reads. This points me towards E!Aeo more than E!Mat or E!Stick as options.

Aeo softballs Aet in her longpost IMO. I kind of feel like I'd expect E!Mat to point this out?

This is all Aet gets:

On 5/28/2024 at 7:25 AM, Aeoryi said:

Again, banter about the rules is NAI at best and it has been seen multiple times before. - NAI

Non-comment.

On 5/28/2024 at 7:25 AM, Aeoryi said:

If Kas doesn't flip e, this will. + Elim

Keep in mind at this point Aeo is working with a theory of an Araris/me team. This means that she's got Aet as an extremely deprioritised E in phrasing: Araris/me > Aet.

This really isn't much contact with Aet IMO. And on Aet's part, this is his response:

Immediate response: joke.

Consistent with LG99.

Longer-term response:

And...it's a non-response. For someone who likes Araris's reasoning, Aet isn't very interested in pushing back against Aeo's claim that this makes him E/E with Araris! So much of Aet's responses here are queries, or just backpedalling.

On 5/28/2024 at 10:03 AM, Aeternum said:

Are not matching up for me.

Oh but later down you do have more elim points for Araris, it just does NOT match up nicely to me and I dislike that

There's this but it doesn't really go anywhere.

On 5/28/2024 at 10:03 AM, Aeternum said:

I like this post from Mat and you go into the town bin for now! (I'm not quoting all that)

Recap: at this point, Aet has put Stick as mildly Village and washed that read a little. Aet has also V!read Mat here for this post.

@Stick. In your view, is this E/E? I have my thoughts on this but am bracketing for the moment.

Recap: Mat mentions D1 interactions between Aet and Aeo but IMO they actually read more E/E-plausible than Mat thinks in my view. I think E!Aet tends to be less assertive and to play more defensively; he has ascribed explicit V reads to Stick and Mat, but sort of wishy-washy refrained from making an Aeo comment and softballed poked back at her Araris stance. I think N1!Mat's thought here was that E!Aet would do wolf theatre but I actually think that's the wrong take - I don't see E!Aet as the sort of E!player who is psychologically confident enough to go out (mentioned as well in Drake's QF when V!Aet admitted he has confidence issues in playing a dynamic driver role as an Elim and feels intimidated), and that's why we have that sort of half-hearted swipe from Aet while Aeo has him as a washed-down E read.

And...this carries into N1.

Aet's reaction to Mat's longpost is to say this:

On 5/30/2024 at 1:23 AM, Aeternum said:

Kas/Aeo either very paired or very unpaired, and I can't decide.

Going back to RBM - I doubt he'd fakeclaim. Doesn't fit the profile, in my opinion.

Mat's probably town for that above post lol. I don't mind if we flip me for the assurance tbh.

V!reading Mat again (when he already had Mat as Village anyway?) suggests a lack of caution around ascribing reads to Mat, particularly when Aet is thinking about being flipped, and as we know, of the view that he is likely to be flipped soon. In that world, I struggle to see E!Aet just throwing a V!read to E!Mat and rolling the dice.

Current state of thoughts.

Edited May 31 by Kasimir

[Stick. she/her]

42 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

@Stick. In your view, is this E/E? I have my thoughts on this but am bracketing for the moment.

that can easily be anything imo. it's easy to throw a v read towards a multiquote wallpost regardless of who wrote it

 

43 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

 

On 5/28/2024 at 6:03 AM, Aeternum said:

Are not matching up for me.

Oh but later down you do have more elim points for Araris, it just does NOT match up nicely to me and I dislike that

There's this but it doesn't really go anywhere.

and yea i brought that up yesterday cuz it pinged me for reasons i couldnt exactly put my finger on. could see that as e/e cuz it's essentially saying 'here's a defense for v!araris, i find ur process weird, but also there's nothing objectively wrong with ur process since u do have elim points for araris in ur post' which is just a roundabout way of saying nothing while trying to look good post-araris flip

[Kasimir he/him]

22 minutes ago, Stick. said:

that can easily be anything imo. it's easy to throw a v read towards a multiquote wallpost regardless of who wrote it

Fair. I'm hinging quite a bit on psych profile read tbh. 

22 minutes ago, Stick. said:

could see that as e/e cuz it's essentially saying 'here's a defense for v!araris, i find ur process weird, but also there's nothing objectively wrong with ur process since u do have elim points for araris in ur post' which is just a roundabout way of saying nothing while trying to look good post-araris flip

Why so?

Sis, have a question for you. This is in terms of how to proceed. I've entertained Aeo a bit on how I don't feel we can do very much in an E!you/E!Aet world. That being said, I want to entertain an E!Aeo world for the moment. If we take Mat at his word as BM, he can't interfere with this cycle. 

Here's my view of E!Aeo's PtV:

This Day: we exe Aet. Aet shields you and Aeo RBs you. You auto-lose the war with Aet and are Shielded. This takes your balefire off the table. Aeo would obviously justify RBing you as fear of a two-channeller votejack play IMO, to still appear Village. Ideally for Aet/Aeo, Bee dies. We go 3/1 into the Night.

N2: Aeo kills me and RBs me. You are Shielded so you would not be able to use balefire since your first chance to break free is that Night. Tbf I don't think RBing me does anything because balefire beats the RB so I'd have to go and use balefire in a link with you, hope to get the 50% coinflip, and shoot correctly (Aeo, not Mat.) On the assumption the balefire fails (50% coinflip and then 15% success rate for me), I die. 2/1 into the Day.

Aeo aims to get Mat to exe you at lylo and then win. It's a bit more complicated if Bee doesn't die, so we hope for that.

I don't know if it is worth us linking today. That's what I'm heading towards, as a hedge against E!Aeo. Part of it depends on TUA's ruling on Seal, but in general as a rule, weave beats physical action. The idea is:

We link, and we both cast the following weaves:

1. Seal Against People = 85% - 10% = 75% - you cast it on yourself, I cast it on myself. We alter our action accordingly. This prevents Aeo from RBing us (I think) as Seal physicalblocks a player who targets you with non-lethal physical actions. It is also top on OoA.

2. Shield Aet = 60% - 10% = 50%. We both cast this on Aet.

I'm not sure if stating this as a suggestion allows a hammer from them which is my one worry. (If Aet is Forsaken, Aet likely tries to votejack me because as Amrylin, I break the tie, so the vote splits 2/2 and they hammer you IMO since I can't do anything. If Aet isn't Forsaken, then they both shift their votes for 3/2. I could votejack Aet or Aeo to prevent this, but this reduces the efficacy of Seal and Shield by 5%.)

...I am willing to accept I am too paranoid  But I feel Aeo's posts still sound tempo-driven which makes me wonder about agenda.

Edited to add 2:

I'm not as paranoid about E!Mat because if E!Mat, V!Aeo, she can sit on him. In any world you have Balefire at Night, you are Village, so it doesn't matter, and in an E!you world, any weave short of Balefire, Harden Air, and Seal, she can sit on.

Edited May 31 by Kasimir

[Stick. she/her]

i wonder if i can use balefire during the day. it doesnt have a black circle next to it, which means it's not night-only?

 

it is unstoppable,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

 

EDIT

32 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Aet shields you and Aeo RBs you. You auto-lose the war with Aet and are Shielded.

also, why? the shield weave is listed before the rb in the OoA, so if i use shield on aet, aeo's rb shouldnt matter right?

 

what happens when 2 people successfully use shield on each other tho

[Kasimir he/him]

1 hour ago, Stick. said:

i wonder if i can use balefire during the day. it doesnt have a black circle next to it, which means it's not night-only?

@The Unknown Ajah? (It just has no circle...)

I see the OoA lists it as a Night Kill though: 

Quote

Night Kills: Balefire/Fireball/Form Maelstrom Kill

1 hour ago, Stick. said:

also, why? the shield weave is listed before the rb in the OoA, so if i use shield on aet, aeo's rb shouldnt matter right?

It's same OoA tier actually, but I think you may be right that weave beats RB? Let me recheck the rules.

Quote

When moves occur at the same time, the higher complexity weave wins, weave always beats physical at the same time, and if two weaves of the same complexity at the same time interfere with each other, whoever has the higher combined stat total wins. If all of these conditions are equal, it will be a coin toss to who goes first.

So this is the same priority order:

Aeo RBs you, you beat her to Shielding Aet. So yeah that bit is not a worry. You and Aet hit each other with weaves of the same complexity, so whichever of you has the higher combined statblock wins. IMO you stand a decent chance of beating Aet or going into a coinflip, based off what I know of your stats. If not, yeah it's a coinflip as to who goes first.

1 hour ago, Stick. said:

what happens when 2 people successfully use shield on each other tho

@The Unknown Ajah

My personal read was that Shield should prevent one of you from Shielding the other based on whoever wins the Shield duel but it's possible that TUA just rules it's a mutual block, I guess, in which case both of you are Shielded. You do prevent Aet from using Compulsion in that world so it's not a wash. Basically you and I have to link at Night and I have to roll the dice with your Balefire and hope to win a 50% then 15% roll. 

I don't think it's the worst because if you break free during the Night, you should have the stats to use Compulsion to force Aeo to self-vote. Aeo might try to RB you - you don't have priority on that one, so if it's lylo, I'd suggest going Seal Against People and Compulsion as dual weaves to try to force her to fail but also get Mat onside. (Again, less complicated world IMO if either you or Mat are Evil since Aeo can sit on that so not interested in spending more time on it.) If Bee doesn't die, that's another good thing.

Edited to add:

@Stick. - One other possibility. We both link and we both Shield Aet. This reduces it to a complexity 2 weave, at 60%. This is A. if you want to take a chance your shield goes through, and B. guarantee overpowering Aet if TUA confirms that a Shield duel ends up with only one player shielded. ( @The Unknown Ajah?)

It guarantees overpowering because we'll have a combined statblock of 5 Spirit 5 Fire 4 Earth. Ignoring all other stats, it's unlikely Aet beats this. Our combined Air stat increases to 2, which will beat Aet's lowest stat as well. But you offload the risk here to the risk the shield doesn't work.

What I can say for how to assess chances:

Quote

0-5 each Air, Fire, Water, and Earth. There will be one stat with the value zero or one, two with the value two or three, and one with the value four or five. Spirit is 1 through 5, but completely random comparatively to the rest of the stats.

E.g. in my case.

Lowest stat: I have an Air stat of 1 so that's the maximum in the lowest stat category. Aet can only equal me there, which would mean coinflip.

Stat [2-3]: I have Fire and Water at 3/2, meaning the only way Aet beats this is by having 3/3 in his two [2-3] stats.

Highest stat: I have Earth at 4, so easily beaten if Aet has 5 for highest stat.

Spirit: 1. Pretty much anything from Aet beats or equals this.

AFAICT, you have maxed out three stat categories, so odds are probably decent you can beat Aet. You can probably work out your odds here, even if I think you shouldn't say it aloud. My stats are cursed af and I can't channel so I don't particularly care  

Edited May 31 by Kasimir

[Kasimir he/him]

Posting separately to everyone is aware:

Tallybot has been fixed! Chocolate is now considered blood-red!

The tally:

Quote

Aet (5): Kas, Stick, Mat, Aeo, Bee

@The Unknown Ajah

[Stick. she/her]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

One other possibility. We both link and we both Shield Aet.

Yeah should do this I think 

[The Unknown Order he/him]

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

@The Unknown Ajah? (It just has no circle...)

I see the OoA lists it as a Night Kill though: 

It's same OoA tier actually, but I think you may be right that weave beats RB? Let me recheck the rules.

So this is the same priority order:

Aeo RBs you, you beat her to Shielding Aet. So yeah that bit is not a worry. You and Aet hit each other with weaves of the same complexity, so whichever of you has the higher combined statblock wins. IMO you stand a decent chance of beating Aet or going into a coinflip, based off what I know of your stats. If not, yeah it's a coinflip as to who goes first.

@The Unknown Ajah

My personal read was that Shield should prevent one of you from Shielding the other based on whoever wins the Shield duel but it's possible that TUA just rules it's a mutual block, I guess, in which case both of you are Shielded. You do prevent Aet from using Compulsion in that world so it's not a wash. Basically you and I have to link at Night and I have to roll the dice with your Balefire and hope to win a 50% then 15% roll. 

I don't think it's the worst because if you break free during the Night, you should have the stats to use Compulsion to force Aeo to self-vote. Aeo might try to RB you - you don't have priority on that one, so if it's lylo, I'd suggest going Seal Against People and Compulsion as dual weaves to try to force her to fail but also get Mat onside. (Again, less complicated world IMO if either you or Mat are Evil since Aeo can sit on that so not interested in spending more time on it.) If Bee doesn't die, that's another good thing.

Edited to add:

@Stick. - One other possibility. We both link and we both Shield Aet. This reduces it to a complexity 2 weave, at 60%. This is A. if you want to take a chance your shield goes through, and B. guarantee overpowering Aet if TUA confirms that a Shield duel ends up with only one player shielded. ( @The Unknown Ajah?)

It guarantees overpowering because we'll have a combined statblock of 5 Spirit 5 Fire 4 Earth. Ignoring all other stats, it's unlikely Aet beats this. Our combined Air stat increases to 2, which will beat Aet's lowest stat as well. But you offload the risk here to the risk the shield doesn't work.

What I can say for how to assess chances:

E.g. in my case.

Lowest stat: I have an Air stat of 1 so that's the maximum in the lowest stat category. Aet can only equal me there, which would mean coinflip.

Stat [2-3]: I have Fire and Water at 3/2, meaning the only way Aet beats this is by having 3/3 in his two [2-3] stats.

Highest stat: I have Earth at 4, so easily beaten if Aet has 5 for highest stat.

Spirit: 1. Pretty much anything from Aet beats or equals this.

AFAICT, you have maxed out three stat categories, so odds are probably decent you can beat Aet. You can probably work out your odds here, even if I think you shouldn't say it aloud. My stats are cursed af and I can't channel so I don't particularly care  

Shield duels will never result in two people shielded. Unless you've somehow got a three person chain going on. Winner will be decided by all the OoA tiebreaker rules, then roleblock the other person before they can do their own shield.

[Stick. she/her]

hello am i able to use balefire during the day

[Aeternum they/them, he/him]

This is why majority should exist so I could've self-hammered.

[Aeternum they/them, he/him]

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

2. Shield Aet = 60% - 10% = 50%. We both cast this on Aet.

What if I Shield you first

5 hours ago, Kasimir said:

This really isn't much contact with Aet IMO. And on Aet's part, this is his response:

Immediate response: joke.

I was and am a very sleepy elim.

[Stick. she/her]

the timing of submission doesnt matter lol, i have cracked stats so ill win it either way but if im able to use balefire ill just do that instead honestly and exe aeo instead 

[Aeoryi she/her]

I have opinion on this game

[The Unknown Order he/him]

51 minutes ago, Stick. said:

hello am i able to use balefire during the day

No. Day and night is denoted with ●/○. I just forgot to add it to those last couple super weaves.

[Mat he/him]

18 hours ago, Stick. said:

@Mat do u remember why u had aeo and aeternum as unpaired?

Vibes based on their interactions, the strongest being this post. It wasn’t as confident a read as my you/Aet unpaired read and at this point I’m fine ignoring it.

5 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Notable since we now know E!Aet - this suggests high confidence but also little perceived threat from Aeo. I re-read Mat's link but don't actually see what he's referring to btw - @Mat, can you sort of walk me through your thinking? Also why you just went on Aet first thing today, please.

Sure— earlier in the turn Aet made an offhand comment about village reading Araris (I think I mentioned this in that Aet post). Later after Aeo ripped into Araris, Aet specifically called them out for it, which I only noted because Aet was already sorta going against consensus regarding Araris and I liked that they stuck to their guns. If Aet/Aeo are e/e that interaction changes and as Aet is e this is kind of a moot point but there you go.

A mix of e!Aes Sedai making sense in the distro plus them being most likely forsaken plus the state of the thread and the discussion happening when I logged on to read it yesterday

Edit: (I know that's a lame response-- don't have time for anything better.  But basically just a continuation from the night turn and then Aet's play early this turn looked bad to me)

Edited May 31 by Mat

[Stick. she/her]

hmm alright aet and aeo are both outed @Kasimir just to be clear we are linking to use a shield weave on aet and also exeing aet

 

during the night i will balefire aeo and hopefully that's game

[Mat he/him]

I'll just wave my sword around ig

[Aeternum they/them, he/him]

5 minutes ago, Mat said:

I'll just wave my sword around ig

Come sit peacefully in the corner with me while Stick burns the world 

[Aeoryi she/her]

19 minutes ago, Stick. said:

hmm alright aet and aeo are both outed @Kasimir just to be clear we are linking to use a shield weave on aet and also exeing aet

 

during the night i will balefire aeo and hopefully that's game

Shoot me in the day at the very least

[Stick. she/her]

i cant apparently, sadge