Long Game 100 - Death is Lighter Than a Feather

[Kasimir he/him]

Draaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaake

1 minute ago, The Unknown Ajah said:

Wierdo (4): Kasimir, RoyalBeeMage, Stick.

RoyalBeeMage (1): Mat

Araris Valerian (1): Aeoryi

Cadmium Compounder (1): Araris Valerian

Mat (1): CadCom

I'm now considering the odds there's no Forsaken in this game, but Aet didn't vote, and therein lies our problem.

Edited to add:

I wouldn't clear Bee or Stick here depending as there's enough time for them to theoretically have sent in a covering order IMO.

[Stick. she/her]

also Cadcom just to air my thoughts

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Stick. said:

also Cadcom just to air my thoughts

?

[The Unknown Order he/him]

There was a minor problem with the votecount. It has been fixed.

[Kasimir he/him]

Stick

[Stick. she/her]

night voting based

[Kasimir he/him]

Primary suspect atm is Stick.

Secondary in Mat, Aeo, Araris, CadCom.

Considering worlds in which E!Stick chooses not to do this and it feels a bit odd. 

Honestly would consider E!RBM as well but E!Warder??? (Guess RBM could be lying but this is why I considered whether we wanna ask for corroboration or not.)

Edited to add:

28 minutes ago, The Unknown Ajah said:

Vote Count:

Wierdo (3): Kasimir, RoyalBeeMage, Stick.

RoyalBeeMage (1): Mat

Araris Valerian (1): Aeoryi

Cadmium Compounder (1): Araris Valerian

Mat (1): CadCom

Spoiler

This is why I am now sussing Stick: Wierdo was supposed to be a 4-train but now it's not. I'm not referring to GM info here - I'm referring to the fact I votejacked Wierdo onto Wierdo because I didn't want Mat to die. (If I'd actually been thinking I'd probably have votejacked Aet onto Wierdo but it is what it is.)

This is also why I say I consider that Stick and Bee potentially could've made the vote save in time - I managed to switch from getting Wierdo to vote on Bee to Wierdo to vote on Wierdo.

There are probably worlds in which this is one of the 1-trains screwing around or Aet Soothing someone in <Stick, Bee> - off the top of my head, I'm not sure, but I figured I should share with the class as there is a missing vote.

Edited May 28 by Kasimir

[Mat he/him]

I see always missing rollover may turn out to be a problem :P.

Not really mad about that cause it resolves the concern of inactive Weirdo later in the game, but I did lightly null+ read them so idk

I do need to read eod though lol

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Mat said:

Not really mad about that cause it resolves the concern of inactive Weirdo later in the game, but I did lightly null+ read them so idk

I feel like you should be not really mad about that because it was Wierdo or you bro >>

@Stick. Not fully sold on E!you tbf just based off the missing vote, but the way I see it there are three levels here:

Obvious level: one of you/Bee are Forsaken and did not votejack (??? why not??? did you also move Wierdo by any chance?)
Less obvious level: It's Aet. Added Aet point: 

I don't see how you say:

12 hours ago, Aeternum said:

I agree that we should have a PoE set up tomorrow based on the missing vote.

And also not vote, not even a holding vote.

Even less obvious level: It's someone in Araris/CadCom/Aeo/Mat who votejacked off you/Bee and onto their train to look Village and sus you/Bee with an Aet bonus.

[Stick. she/her]

5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I don't see how you say:

12 hours ago, Aeternum said:

I agree that we should have a PoE set up tomorrow based on the missing vote.

And also not vote, not even a holding vote.

that's kinda villagery ngl LOOOOOOOOL

 

cuz if a forsaken says that they are 100% planning on rioting a vote onto the wagon that they themself are voting on to look good

cant rly do that if u arent voting. most u can do is make someone else look bad, not necessarily make urself look good and if ur gonna do all that why would (edit: wouldnt*) u just vote as well

Edited May 28 by Stick.

[Kasimir he/him]

5 minutes ago, Stick. said:

cant rly do that if u arent voting. most u can do is make someone else look bad, not necessarily make urself look good and if ur gonna do all that why would u just vote as well

Ok, I'm willing to buy that line of reasoning but I'm interested: do you really see that as not being viable at all? Because I kind of feel like you specialise in running Elims wouldn't do this! plays and that feels to me like the kind of level I'm wondering if Aet is playing on. We've specifically talked about putting negative attention on whoever who has a missing vote.

Edited to add:

For what it's worth, I do not believe I was blocked.

Edited May 28 by Kasimir

[Stick. she/her]

i could see it if they were anticipating being weave-blocked. would be silly to out urself that way

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Stick. said:

i could see it if they were anticipating being weave-blocked. would be silly to out urself that way

Fair.

Then it's 1 or 3 to me. I'll go with the Aet read for now but I still want to hear from Aet - the night is still young.

[The Unknown Order he/him]

Shoot, now the vc is accurate. I'm a mess.

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, The Unknown Ajah said:

Shoot, now the vc is accurate. I'm a mess.

I'm not going to work this out, I'm calling it a night

[Aeternum they/them, he/him]

WELL I SCREWED UP, I genuinely thought day end was in 24 hours. It seems I've now messed up everything :'D

I'll be back later after work - fun surprise opening the Shard and discovering I'm bad at counting days.

[Aeoryi she/her]

Sleepy time 

[Kasimir he/him]

Deep breath.

H'okay. 

1 hour ago, The Unknown Ajah said:

Wierdo (4): Kasimir, RoyalBeeMage, Stick.

RoyalBeeMage (1): Mat

Araris Valerian (1): Aeoryi

Cadmium Compounder (1): Araris Valerian

Mat (1): CadCom

Someone correct me if I'm wrong - this looks to me like the only place you get four votes is if someone votejacks Aet, because otherwise you get a difference somewhere. They can't have won me in a votejack 1v1 for Wierdo because if there's a Wierdo war, then we have 3 votes on this train, not 4. They can't have votejacked Mat, RBM, Araris, or CadCom, because if they did, where's the extra vote come from?

Off the top of my head:

1. Is there even a Forsaken at all?

It's an assumption we were working with because mech is beautiful but let's look at the numbers:

We have one extra vote on Wierdo, and no missing votes on RBM, Araris, CadCom, and Mat. In addition, Aet didn't vote. I votejacked Wierdo to Wierdo, so expected to see 4.

In any world where one of RBM or Stick is the Forsaken, they basically have to votejack from Aet onto Wierdo.

Here's why: mathematics. If they votejack from Wierdo, presumably either nothing happens (in which case there are 3 votes on that train) or we get into a weird votejacking war, which still means there should not be 4 votes. If they votejack from <Mat, Aeo, Araris, CadCom>, the result is we should see a 0 train. But there is no 0-train. Therefore clearly the missing vote (barring further votejack shenanigans) should not have come from any 1-train voter.

Essentially:

-RBM, if truthful, cannot votejack. Warders cannot use weaves.
-Stick might be able to votejack. Cannot be discarded as a candidate here.
-Forsaken in <Mat, Aeo, Araris, CadCom> does not explain extra vote - where does it come from? Whose vote got hijacked such that they still have a single vote on them?

To me this points to several likely conclusions:

-Extra vote had to come from Aet. Basically no other way about it I think. Someone lmk if you find a place the extra vote can come from.
-Aet can't be Forsaken, simpliciter. Can still be Evil but no Riot involving Aet should've gotten off the ground in Forsaken!Aet world.
-Unless one of <Bee/Stick> votejacked, I'm obviously not the Forsaken either.
-Extra votejack onto Wierdo is a bit weird tbh - if the player was offline and didn't see the last minute Wierdo pivot, then why specifically votejack to Wierdo? This doesn't really make sense to me as a move.
-This could suggest there's no Forsaken in the game but some of the oddities accrue around Stick, I think. (Basically unless someone else claimed to have votejacked onto Wierdo (who, why?) - it really looks more E to me. Like...suppose the E didn't come on near EoD pivot. Wierdo is a side one-train, why Riot to Wierdo specifically? Doesn't do much and feels like weird flex because Wierdo's not the guy you pin on. But I need sleep.)

[Mat he/him]

53 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I feel like you should be not really mad about that because it was Wierdo or you bro >>

Just caught up and saw that, yeah >> 

13 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

WELL I SCREWED UP, I genuinely thought day end was in 24 hours. It seems I've now messed up everything :'D

I'll be back later after work - fun surprise opening the Shard and discovering I'm bad at counting days.

Explain to me why this is such a bad result? I understand that a misexe isn't optimal but I'm surprised by the strength of your reaction.

But the Aet conversation that Stick and Kas just had I think is sort of resolved by Aet not knowing when EoD was, no? At least, forsaken!Aet not voting makes more sense.

I'll make a big post going over stuff from last turn but I'm in a class rn so that's not happening for a bit lol

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Mat said:

But the Aet conversation that Stick and Kas just had I think is sort of resolved by Aet not knowing when EoD was, no? At least, forsaken!Aet not voting makes more sense.

I've concluded Aet can't be the Forsaken because there's an extra vote on the train we don't have the numbers to account for. In a game with the Forsaken, we expect 8 votes in total. With Aet not voting, unless Aet is the Forsaken, we expect 7 votes. (If we take my claim to have votejacked Wierdo on face value, Wierdo flipped Aes Sedai, therefore Wierdo's vote absolutely counted.)

There are 8 votes in total, which means someone's vote didn't count. My problem is that if we postulate anyone on the 1-trains (you, Aeo, Araris, CadCom) votejacked, it doesn't explain where the extra vote on the 4-train comes from - there should be a 0-train in this landscape but there isn't. And in a world where Stick is a Village Aes Sedai or an Evil Aes Sedai and votejacks Aet, we should see five votes on the train, not 4. The pivot from RBM to Wierdo also happened late.

I feel like this points me to something being wrong with someone in <Stick, RBM.> With RBM making a Warder claim that can theoretically be substantiated, I'm looking more at Stick. I think the only way we get a 4 train in this world without insane votejacking mathematics requires a Forsaken in Stick/RBM to votejack.

(E.g. Say you are the Forsaken. You votejack Aet onto you. Ok so why do we have a 4-train on Wierdo? If no Forsaken, why do we have only 8 votes total? If you postulate anyone votejacked, we should be looking at 9 votes because Aet switches from no voting to voting Wierdo, and I made Wierdo self-vote (sorry.) The only world I guess is something like Aet is an E!Aes Sedai and riots himself onto Wierdo...but for what purpose? How would Aet know the Wierdo pivot was taking off? Aet was just flexing??? And again, in the E!Aes Sedai Aet world, there should be 9 votes. There are not 9 votes. )

Correct me if I'm wrong. Also @Araris Valerian as the maths guy.

Edited to add:

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Ok so why do we have a 4-train on Wierdo?

Screw me ok I'm tired we actually do get this in the world F!you votejack onto you I think??? Three for each of us and the extra votejack ffs.

I am washing my hands of vote mathematics and going to sleep for real this can be someone else's problem I am this done with it.

[Aeternum they/them, he/him]

3 minutes ago, Mat said:

Explain to me why this is such a bad result? I understand that a misexe isn't optimal but I'm surprised by the strength of your reaction.

I was supposed to vote so that we'd have a PoE now to catch the Forsaken, assuming there is one. So I didn't have a vote because I thought I had more time, and thus now the PoE is screwed.

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Aeternum said:

I was supposed to vote so that we'd have a PoE now to catch the Forsaken, assuming there is one. So I didn't have a vote because I thought I had more time, and thus now the PoE is screwed.

Don't think your vote or lack thereof changes it too much. Pretty sure it looks like you got votejacked. I recognise I have made ten (10) dubious statements over the past hour but I stand by this one. (Until I realise I screwed myself and really should go sleep and leave this mess to someone else to parse.) I don't think we have a way of making sense of the votes as they stand unless we assume your vote was hijacked, which means you can't be the Forsaken.

Currently trying to pre-sleep parse just one last time to confuse people less (sorry):

-Aet probably votejacked. Hard to make sense of no delta without it. Any other player being votejacked should leave a clear deficit with a 0-vote train appearing.
-Aet being votejackable implies Aet not Forsaken so it doesn't matter. 
-We cannot ascertain on the basis of the trains where Aet's vote went. It could easily be used to cover up a Forsaken on a solo train or by a Forsaken in <Stick, RBM.>
-Aet, in the world you vote, we probably see a zero-vote on your train which isn't very helpful either since we now know you are not the Forsaken (though potentially still Evil.)

[CadCom he/him]

@Kasimir Are you claiming to be amerlyn seat or claiming to have used compulsion?  I see evidence of a single vote manip, which you've claimed. Where are you getting that aet was also possibly vote jacked?

Edit: And to clarify, there's not a vote tonight, right? Those were just people throwing out votes before realizing it was a night cycle?

Edited May 28 by CadCom

[Mat he/him]

12 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I feel like this points me to something being wrong with someone in <Stick, RBM.> With RBM making a Warder claim that can theoretically be substantiated, I'm looking more at Stick. I think the only way we get a 4 train in this world without insane votejacking mathematics requires a Forsaken in Stick/RBM to votejack.

Ah right I follow now. I was going to also put you in that PoE for the rest of us but I don't think that works actually, at least not in this specific case :p.

9 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

I was supposed to vote so that we'd have a PoE now to catch the Forsaken, assuming there is one. So I didn't have a vote because I thought I had more time, and thus now the PoE is screwed.

Yeah sorry I'm slow

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

-We cannot ascertain on the basis of the trains where Aet's vote went. It could easily be used to cover up a Forsaken on a solo train or by a Forsaken in <Stick, RBM.>

So the Stick/RBM PoE isn't actually that good? :p.

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, CadCom said:

Are you claiming to be amerlyn seat or claiming to have used compulsion?

Is there a reason you care? Feels potentially sus to me. I claim the votejack. I don't see what that has to do with you as every Aes Sedai has a votejack and Amrylin Seat is not a saferole.

2 minutes ago, CadCom said:

Where are you getting that aet was also possibly vote jacked?

If there's a Forsaken, then where does the extra vote come from?

I did one votejack. There are no missing votes on any other train. Prima facie, if there is a Forsaken on the 4-train, there should only be 3 votes. The fact there is 4 implies that there was at least one votejack. If there is a Forsaken on a 1-train, then there should be some train with fewer votes. There isn't. In general, there are 9 players. Aet did not vote. Drops that to 8. It would be 7 because Wierdo didn't vote but I votejacked Wierdo. Back up to 8.

In a world where there is a Forsaken, we drop from 8 votes to 7. Ignore the separate trains. This is the raw votecount. Minus one for Aet, minus one for the Forsaken. 9-2=7. But we see 8 votes in total when we add them up. Therefore, for us to see 8, there is either:

A. No Forsaken (9-1 with 1 being Aet)
B. A Forsaken (9-2=7 but brought back up to 8 with an Aet votejack.)

You are welcome to show me other worlds I have not considered.

Edited to add:

4 minutes ago, Mat said:

So the Stick/RBM PoE isn't actually that good? :p.

I don't believe so, no. Aet's vote just neatly covers up for a Forsaken in any world that the Forsaken votes. I think I've done the maths right at last (and I think the benefit to the maths is I don't have to break my brain over the trains as I think the specifics were causing me confusion when tired) - the vote totals mean that we are either in a no Forsaken world, or a world where Aet was specifically votejacked to cover the Forsaken. Anything else is just weird numerically. But given I have multiple posts swearing it's right this time, I welcome people who can show something I've missed.