Long Game 100 - Death is Lighter Than a Feather

[CadCom he/him]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

Is there a reason you care? Feels potentially sus to me. I claim the votejack. I don't see what that has to do with you as every Aes Sedai has a votejack and Amrylin Seat is not a saferole.

If there's a Forsaken, then where does the extra vote come from?

I did one votejack. There are no missing votes on any other train. Prima facie, if there is a Forsaken on the 4-train, there should only be 3 votes. The fact there is 4 implies that there was at least one votejack. If there is a Forsaken on a 1-train, then there should be some train with fewer votes. There isn't. In general, there are 9 players. Aet did not vote. Drops that to 8. It would be 7 because Wierdo didn't vote but I votejacked Wierdo. Back up to 8.

In a world where there is a Forsaken, we drop from 8 votes to 7. Ignore the separate trains. This is the raw votecount. Minus one for Aet, minus one for the Forsaken. 9-2=7. But we see 8 votes in total when we add them up. Therefore, for us to see 8, there is either:

A. No Forsaken (9-1 with 1 being Aet)
B. A Forsaken (9-2=7 but brought back up to 8 with an Aet votejack.)

You are welcome to show me other worlds I have not considered.

If I could PM you, I could, but I don't think anyone can PM, (My fault)
I ask, because I blocked all water actions. The amerlyn seat is the only role that could have vote jacked. To me this means we either don't have a forsaken, or someone that didn't vote is a forsaken. (Aet)

It also means anyone who has a protect action available, should probably put it towards Kas, assuming their vote jack was actually successful. 

[Kasimir he/him]

Edited to add 2:

Tbh anyway Forsaken-hunting is fine but also a distraction from Village work in that it shouldn't be done exclusively. Arguably I got overexcited because I thought it was indicative of something but the numbers to me just exclude Aet from being the Forsaken, which means it's back to work, one way or another.

To sharpen my point for CadCom - votejacking just transfers a vote from one player to another or activates a vote that was deactivated. This is why I think looking at vote totals bring clarity. It's indisputable we have a vote total of 8 unless I was so tired I couldn't even count properly. If you want to postulate someone else was votejacked, you can, but then you have to subtract Aet's vote, and then that doesn't match with the claim that I votejacked Wierdo and reactivated that vote. You can suggest I'm lying, but I was not roleblocked, and when I flip, it'll be clear I wasn't lying, so you just gotta deal with those numbers ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Edited to add 2:

4 minutes ago, CadCom said:

If I could PM you, I could, but I don't think anyone can PM, (My fault)

I can make a PM with you. There's a default PM action that doesn't involve weaves as I burned the action last Turn.

Quote

• PMing requires a physical action. If you use your action to PM, it will allow you to PM anyone freely next turn. You cannot use this to open group PMs, though they may be opened by other means. PMs made during this turn cannot be used in future turns, though if you take the PM action again you may use the same PM for convenience. 

This is why I can also confirm I was not roleblocked, and probably half the game with me. I used two physical actions - the fact I can make PMs indicates my Wierdo action also went through.

4 minutes ago, CadCom said:

I ask, because I blocked all water actions. The amerlyn seat is the only role that could have vote jacked. To me this means we either don't have a forsaken, or someone that didn't vote is a forsaken. (Aet)

1. Fair. Wrt water actions, is this across the game or a person? @The Unknown Ajah

2. Well, fair enough, and I agree it matters. I am the Amrylin Seat, yes, which is why I also intimated D1 I didn't mind dying as my death means any V!Keeper can auto murderise anyone else who scans as the Seat.

Edited May 28 by Kasimir

[The Unknown Order he/him]

9 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Fair. Wrt water actions, is this across the game or a person? @The Unknown Ajah

A Circle of Frost will roleblock all water based weaves that turn.

[Kasimir he/him]

Edited to add 3:

11 minutes ago, CadCom said:

It also means anyone who has a protect action available, should probably put it towards Kas, assuming their vote jack was actually successful. 

I would argue it's better on CadCom tbh - if Aet is going to flip Forsaken, which I refuse to think too hard on in my tired state rn, CadCom's the obvious shot tonight to deny a Village clear.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Since water actions got blocked, there was no Compulsion. That means that if a Forsaken exists, it would have to be Aeternum or CadCom, unless someone (or better, multiple someones) can confirm that water weaves did get blocked.

I think if there isn’t a Forsaken, the elims would want to bluff one, to throw us off. In that world, Kas looks good (could have soothed a vote), as does CadCom (stopped any elims from soothing).

[Mat he/him]

10 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Since water actions got blocked, there was no Compulsion. That means that if a Forsaken exists, it would have to be Aeternum or CadCom, unless someone (or better, multiple someones) can confirm that water weaves did get blocked.

Do we think the Forsaken's ability to make one of their weaves succeed trumps CadCom's weave? I kind of think it does, but I'll ping @The Unknown Ajah to weigh in: Specifically, TUA, I'm asking if the Circle of Frost stops the Forsaken from using Compulsion, if the Forsaken chooses Compulsion to automatically succeed.

If I'm right, there's possibility that Stick/RBM are the Forsaken as well, but it shouldn't be anyone outside that PoE + Aet/CadCom. And given CadCom was right about Kas and just the general nature of the claim, I'm inclined to trust him.

Gonna go through the end of D1 properly now.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

2 minutes ago, Mat said:

Do we think the Forsaken's ability to make one of their weaves succeed trumps CadCom's weave? I kind of think it does, but I'll ping @The Unknown Ajah to weigh in: Specifically, TUA, I'm asking if the Circle of Frost stops the Forsaken from using Compulsion, if the Forsaken chooses Compulsion to automatically succeed.

Oh, my interpretation was that the Forsaken would just pass the die rolls, but not roleblocks. Can see why someone would look at it differently though.

[Aeoryi she/her]

6 hours ago, Stick. said:

nice angleshooting 

but ok villagery post for the most part

Shush

Spoiler

I hosted a game on discord once and then lemon used me miscounting a VC to case a wolf, so I understand the pain

Spoiler

vote tallying sucks btw

Spoiler

That's why tallybot is cool

 

 

 

3 hours ago, The Unknown Ajah said:

Cadmium Compounder (1): Araris Valerian

What

[Mat he/him]

Just now, Araris Valerian said:

Oh, my interpretation was that the Forsaken would just pass the die rolls, but not roleblocks. Can see why someone would look at it differently though.

Yeah idk, I'm probably wrong given my track history with this ruleset, but worth asking I think.

Okay these are from last turn:

4 hours ago, RoyalBeeMage said:

if i get voted out simply because I did not bother to read through some of araris's posts. why do you guys post such big posts? 

i can already tell you that I am not a forsaken(isn't the forsaken a elim only role?). all I am is a warder. though to who I am not saying as I am not sure how comfortable they would be with me saying so... 

Funnily enough Araris is not even one of the people I'd say made big posts last turn  What made you think that you were being voted on because you didn't read Araris's posts?

Not sure how I feel about this claim, mostly because I think it's village leaning but want RBM to be elim for my own validation.

4 hours ago, RoyalBeeMage said:

mat! self pres and because you are not giving any good/solid reason as to why you are voting me. you don't need one but it is still a little sus...

I was offline. It was basically just a Stick sheep, as Stick was my most solid village read, and I agreed with her point about your potential Araris TMI. That, and I didn't like any of the other trains.

Can someone reconcile RBM's fixation on Weirdo the entire turn with their sudden switch off of me onto Weirdo because I cannot for the life of me understand why they did that lol

For the amount of effort they went into wondering where Weirdo was/trying to get them to post, delivering the killing blow over staying on someone they had an actual reason to vote is strange.

11 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

What

What?

---

Reads are at

CadCom
Stick, Aeoryi
Kas, RBM, Aet
Araris

I trust CadCom's claim and the tone of it seemed good. Still vibing with Stick. Aeo should be lower but that D1 post still gives me v!Aeo energy. Paranoiding Kas even though that never ends well, RBM's a big fat IDK, Aet's highest potential forsaken. Probably tunneling on Araris but I don't like how he basically ignored my comments on him from last turn.

[Stick. she/her]

do we want royalbee’s partner to out or nah

 

pros:

will shed some light on royal’s alignment 

 

cons:

suboptimal to out if they are v/v

EDIT

agree with the CadCom v reads, stopping all water weaves sounds like a + for the village and im not able to discern any obvious elim incentives to do that. obviously the claim itself is 100% real cuz it can easily be disproved so not worth lying about 

[Mat he/him]

I’d say nah for outing RBM’s partner— if they’re v/v, the elims can snipe the aes sedai in the hopes of a double NK.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

6 minutes ago, Mat said:

I’d say nah for outing RBM’s partner— if they’re v/v, the elims can snipe the aes sedai in the hopes of a double NK.

Well, sort of. Depends on which cycle the Aes Sedai is vulnerable. Not to mention the possibility of a blademaster. Not sure elims would want to risk a failed kill this early in the game.

[Kasimir he/him]

1 hour ago, Stick. said:

do we want royalbee’s partner to out or nah

 

pros:

will shed some light on royal’s alignment 

 

cons:

suboptimal to out if they are v/v

EDIT

agree with the CadCom v reads, stopping all water weaves sounds like a + for the village and im not able to discern any obvious elim incentives to do that. obviously the claim itself is 100% real cuz it can easily be disproved so not worth lying about 

I will say even without it I'd probably ascribe some credence to the claim just because I don't recall seeing Bee ever do that under pressure and Bee doesn't really seem the aggressive fakeclaim type? IDK tbh. If Warder, then I think odds of E!Bee drop a bit for reasons already discussed last cycle. I guess what I'm thinking aloud about is: do we need the claim? I almost feel like as a choice of fakeclaim, it's the sort that needs a teammate to prompt.

I've a similar line of thought on the veracity of CadCom's claim with regard to the potential for it to hit a wall with someone using a water weave.

BEDIT:

I guess where I'm at is I'd still prefer corroboration but feel like we can at least make some guesses based on the claims as they are.

[Aeoryi she/her]

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Bee doesn't really seem the aggressive fakeclaim type?

I could see it. A lot of people have underestimated bee before 

[RoyalBeeMage he/him]

4 hours ago, Stick. said:

do we want royalbee’s partner to out or nah

 

pros:

will shed some light on royal’s alignment 

 

cons:

suboptimal to out if they are v/v

EDIT

agree with the CadCom v reads, stopping all water weaves sounds like a + for the village and im not able to discern any obvious elim incentives to do that. obviously the claim itself is 100% real cuz it can easily be disproved so not worth lying about 

If my aes Sendai wants to reveal themselves it’s up to them as it would risk them for a potential double nk

3 hours ago, Mat said:

I’d say nah for outing RBM’s partner— if they’re v/v, the elims can snipe the aes sedai in the hopes of a double NK.

Yeah… I would prefer for there not to be a double nk that causes me to die 

12 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

I could see it. A lot of people have underestimated bee before 

Nonsense! Everyone is doing the right amount of estimating 

[The Unknown Order he/him]

8 hours ago, Mat said:

Do we think the Forsaken's ability to make one of their weaves succeed trumps CadCom's weave? I kind of think it does, but I'll ping @The Unknown Ajah to weigh in: Specifically, TUA, I'm asking if the Circle of Frost stops the Forsaken from using Compulsion, if the Forsaken chooses Compulsion to automatically succeed.

If I'm right, there's possibility that Stick/RBM are the Forsaken as well, but it shouldn't be anyone outside that PoE + Aet/CadCom. And given CadCom was right about Kas and just the general nature of the claim, I'm inclined to trust him.

Gonna go through the end of D1 properly now.

The Forsaken auto success only affects the RNG of a weave's success. It does not prevent the weave from being be blocked by outside interference such as roleblocks.

[Mat he/him]

One question answered, then. I’ll deep dive Aet tonight. As much as I can, anyway.

[Aeoryi she/her]

11 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Wierdo was supposed to be a 4-train but now it's not. I'm not referring to GM info here - I'm referring to the fact I votejacked Wierdo onto Wierdo because I didn't want Mat to die. (If I'd actually been thinking I'd probably have votejacked Aet onto Wierdo but it is what it is.)

 

[Kasimir he/him]

6 hours ago, Mat said:

One question answered, then. I’ll deep dive Aet tonight. As much as I can, anyway.

The night is 48 hours. There's no point in not trying. Edited to add: Basically we might as well discuss rather than waste the Night.

6 hours ago, Aeoryi said:

 

Do you think you could do me the courtesy of putting your image in a spoiler box so I don't have to deal with page loading issues on my slow mobile? 

Me: "I voted for Wierdo and would probably have moved Aet onto Wierdo instead of Wierdo onto Wierdo"
Aeo: 'iNTeNtIOnAlLy mIsLnYnChiNg tOwN'

I like that Aeo thinks committing to your vote is problematic and also expects me to know the alignment of people I'm voting for  

Spoiler

Edited to add 2:

If anyone has the stats to, I'd recommend linking up with willing partners to do an Earthquake. I don't have the Earth stat for this but have been trying to find people who might be on board because A. the Villager gets the advantage in a link so their alignment is not the worst thing in the world, and B. either blocking the kill or neatly removing half the game from PoE is a good outcome for us IMO.

Edited to add 3:

Specifically, it's 4/7 players who could not have made the kill. Throw in yourself and it's a 50% shot at the Elim who made the kill from your PoV. And if the kill doesn't go through, it might be withheld or that all Elims were physicalblocked, but it's nice to earn tempo anyway!

Edited May 29 by Kasimir

[Mat he/him]

Wait is the night 48 hours or am I stupid

Edit: Never mind I read posts sorry

Edited May 29 by Mat

[Aeoryi she/her]

8 hours ago, Kasimir said:

The night is 48 hours.

Cursed

8 hours ago, Kasimir said:

the courtesy of putting your image in a spoiler box

I forgot to, my bad. (I know it can be really laggy and/or long on mobile, so I'll make sure to do that next time.)

8 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I like that Aeo thinks committing to your vote is problematic and also expects me to know the alignment of people I'm voting for

Less people should vote tbh. Then we root out the forsaken faster. 

Assuming one exists and we aren't chasing a red herring imposed in the rule doc, of course.

I do expect you to at least predict the alignment of people you vote for. That's just a no-brainer.

8 hours ago, Kasimir said:

If anyone has the stats to, I'd recommend linking up with willing partners to do an Earthquake. I don't have the Earth stat for this but have been trying to find people who might be on board because A. the Villager gets the advantage in a link so their alignment is not the worst thing in the world, and B. either blocking the kill or neatly removing half the game from PoE is a good outcome for us IMO.

What does EQ do?

8 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Specifically, it's 4/7 players who could not have made the kill. Throw in yourself and it's a 50% shot at the Elim who made the kill from your PoV. And if the kill doesn't go through, it might be withheld or that all Elims were physicalblocked, but it's nice to earn tempo anyway!

IDK what physicalblocked is but if they were roleblocked there ain't going to be a kill.

[Kasimir he/him]

40 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

I do expect you to at least predict the alignment of people you vote for. That's just a no-brainer.

Sure, then let me tighten my phrasing - I didn't vote a Village read, which should be the bare minimum, and you claiming I should be prescient enough to correctly foresee Wierdo's alignment is a bad faith perspective. At this point, it is clear you are in a tunnel and determined to take the worst possible construal of what I say, so I'm not interested in further engagement.

40 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

IDK what physicalblocked is but if they were roleblocked there ain't going to be a kill.

There are two types of roleblocks in this game. The kill is a physical move - so it can only be physicalblocked. Weaveblocking does nothing to it. (There's a world in which the Elims have the statblock to Fireball but tbh if this is that world there's less we can do about it.)

40 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

What does EQ do?

It RBs four other players (I believe you choose.) Specifically it's a physicalblock, and the kill is physical. Aes Sedai using weave tracks, weaveblocks etc can still go through. It's only an issue if Perrin is in this game because Perrin is a 2x scan but that's a physical type move.

Edited to add:

Nope, Illuminator also gets to use a physicalblock + weaveblock but that's physical-classed. This game is freakin' Pokemon on stilts.

Edited to add 2:

Specifically:

Quote

Weaveblock means to roleblock/stop only weave actions, Physicalblock means to roleblock/stop only physical actions, and Roleblock means to roleblock/stop both physical and weave actions.

I don't see anything with a roleblock here but it's good to still keep in mind that there's two types of actions in this game and an action's type determines which slot it goes in, and what actions can stop it. There's a bit of an asymmetry between physical and weave actions because there are way more physicalblocks than weaveblocks. Lower level physicalblocks also explicitly don't stop the kill:

Quote

Physicalblock any player who takes a non-lethal action against a player of your choice. Including yourself○/●

Quote

Physical block four players other than yourself○/●

And this is specifically Earthquake which seems pretty value-for-money but likely needs a link to reduce complexity and someone with a high Earth statblock.

Edited May 29 by Kasimir

[Mat he/him]

Aeternum connection web-- aka things I noticed that could mean something but could mean nothing. Largely this post is made assuming e!Forsaken!Aeternum which, I know, is dangerous. (To be fair, the word "assuming" there is misleading-- but I think there's a good chance we have a Forsaken, distro-wise, and Aet is easily the best fit. It's hard to do an ISO of Aet that's entirely unbaised given that).

Does anyone have a reason Aeternum isn't the Forsaken? Other than "It's CadCom" or "We don't have a Forsaken".

Anyway.

• Generic support for Araris here early in the turn while he was under pressure. Not all that noteworthy, aside from the fact that it was the only substantial comment in Aet's first couple posts that otherwise were just "I'm here", "I need to reread the rules", etc. (Worth mentioning that Stick specifically called out this connection as not e/e)
   
• Here they question how Stick got a read on them already given their low posting levels, then proceed to make a read on basically every player in the game, including those with virtually no content (such as assigning Weirdo a 'meh'). Dunno if the inconsistency is relevant but in the case of e!Aet this list may be useful, depending on if we know how Aet represents their elim teammates (aka I should go read LG99).
   
• I would say Stick/Aet are not e/e with reasonable confidence.
   
• Aeoryi/Aet also don't feel e/e but I'm less sure about that one.
   
• Doubles down on Araris defense here (which I actually read as a + for Aet-- their previous Araris statement was weak enough to easily walk back, and even under Aeo's fire they didn't). Again, unsure if e!Aet is the type to defend, bus, or ignore teammates, or anything in between.
  • Interestingly, in that same post Aet asked Araris a question about the Forsaken. I feel like e!Forsaken!Aet wouldn't do that with e!Araris but idk :P.
     
• Also in that post, Aet makes a comment that is consistent with them forgetting when the day end was. I was preparing to make the case that perhaps e!Forsaken!Aet lied about missing EoD to cover themselves not voting, but that doesn't work quite as well anymore. (The comment in question basically was "Tomorrow I'll sit down and make more reads", when at the time rollover was quite early tomorrow morning. There's some ambiguity here as we obviously can make reads during the Night turn, but that's not really the vibe I got from it).

That's all from D1. I'm kinda conflicted; there are arguments such as the meta point Kas brought up, the Forsaken analysis, and potentially the minor inconstancies across their posting, but there are also things I like from them such as doubling down on their Araris read and showing signs of legitimately having forgotten when day end was. My overall thoughts are summed up by "would roleexe /shrug" which ik is awful but I don't lean a strong enough village to fully dissuade me from the Forsaken chance. Definitely not snapvoting Aet tomorrow by any means but I'd vote there.

• Not Aet teammates: Stick, Aeo, CadCom, (me)
  • CadCom because there's no way e!CadCom virtually outs e!Forsaken!Aet here.
• Potential Aet teammates: RBM, Araris, Kas(?)
  • ? on Kas because he was quick to single out Aet as the most likely Forsaken and probably could go in the above category.

[Aeternum they/them, he/him]

Kas/Aeo either very paired or very unpaired, and I can't decide.

Going back to RBM - I doubt he'd fakeclaim. Doesn't fit the profile, in my opinion.

Mat's probably town for that above post lol. I don't mind if we flip me for the assurance tbh.

(Quoting sucks on mobile so I'll quote stuff specifically when I'm on my laptop)

Spoiler

I lost my wim, tell me if you find it on the floor somewhere

And yeah, I did actually think rollover was 24 hours later - completely forgot it had already been a day before that. I also didn't know night is 48 hours lol

[Kasimir he/him]

13 minutes ago, Mat said:

Definitely not snapvoting Aet tomorrow by any means but I'd vote there.

I don't think we should go into a locked D2 by any means. It's a waste of tempo and will suck even more if, e.g. Bee's Aes Sedai gets hit tonight or something. We just shouldn't be wasting time.