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QF 72: The Rebellion - Now or Never


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5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

If you're not a Drunk then it only matters if Coffee is the actual HT no? Since TUO didn't claim to target you and I can't see my results making sense with external targeting on Drake's part.

If Coffee is the actual HT then your role and alignment depend on Stick's, with the usual caveats.

Edited to add:

Alternatively, welcome to ONW, it's wild :P

Isn't there some elim role that converts you

Maybe I am drunk 😔 (funny)

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12 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

Isn't there some elim role that converts you

Maybe I am drunk 😔 (funny)

Yes but it's the one I feel is most practicable to ignore unless the Seeker or Drunk saw the role on the discard pile because that's a risk for basically everyone in the game anyway. Village cannot treat that as reason to do nothing. 

If neither of them found anything useful then there's no point in borrowing trouble.

Edited to add:

False Seeker plays have more value here due to the 96-hour format so I feel that even a Seeker claim you scanned red could feel dubious depending on the context. I would not ignore it and having that info is better than not having it but I think people have to internalise that in this format, today is lylo.

Edited by Kasimir
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2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

 Why Stick and Aet

I wanted less high profile people, but not players who might be a bit more inactive. 

Also bias because last game I spent most of my time talking to TKO and Kas and Aeo, so I didn't want to focus on you guys again. Stick and Aet were just the leftovers that my eye landed on.

 

Honestly I was hoping stick and Aet would claim something, at which point I would reveal they were swapped, forcing more info for village. Still, would definitely urge those two to claim, considering they have been swapped they are claiming for the other person. 

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So if I’m understanding correctly I don’t have a clue what alignment I am right now. Um. Aeternum should be Kelsier right now if that’s the case LOL LMAO. 
 

it’s why I said I “randed” jester specifically 

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4 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

I wanted less high profile people, but not players who might be a bit more inactive. 

Also bias because last game I spent most of my time talking to TKO and Kas and Aeo, so I didn't want to focus on you guys again. Stick and Aet were just the leftovers that my eye landed on.

 

Honestly I was hoping stick and Aet would claim something, at which point I would reveal they were swapped, forcing more info for village. Still, would definitely urge those two to claim, considering they have been swapped they are claiming for the other person. 

I'm only claiming if you prove that you're for real with this because TUO did also claim :)

EDIT:

Stick is lying btw :)

Edited by Aeternum
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Just now, Stick. said:

It’s actually tragic that I can’t even case you rn guess I’ll just awkwardly stand here 

That makes two of us :) I'm gonna not play my cards yet :D

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Alright, so if stick really was kelsier, Aet is now kelsier. Not sure I believe stick but I'm not gonna vote for Aet just in case. 

9 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

I'm only claiming if you prove that you're for real with this because TUO did also claim :)

How exactly am I supposed to do that? But also I am the troublemaker, you and stick are definitely swapped from my pov. No this isn't a villager gambit, I'm not claiming to be something else to cause a reaction. I'm not evil either but the only thing that could prove I am HT is if someone read one of you guys and can confirm my action. 

 

I did claim HT before TKN, and I'm pretty sure they are doing it because they are some evil/neutral role, I need to read over the roles once more and see who is more likely to CC a villager just after they claim. I don't think a pure elim would do that as it is too risky.

Edited by Coffeecat
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Ok fine. If you swapped me and Stick, she is now Kelsier. I randed Kelsier. I am hardclaiming this, I dare you to try to cc me :ph34r:

Just don't vote in either of us tbh. I'll townside because I'm a VT at heart, 3p in reality :lol:

Would be funny if we were both 3ps and just swapped 3p roles tho.

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useful rules notes for people who didn't read the rules

useful rules note #1 - using default font is for suckers (it's in the rules, trust)

5 hours ago, Kasimir said:

This is ONW. Claiming is the point. It's like playing BotC and refusing to claim wtaf.

IMO Village should be maxxing our claims and consistency here because the win condition is a higher bar than your typical N0-into-D1.

Kicking off the ball: I don't know if someone hit me last Night but I got some weird results that I'll work out when I'm not screaming excitedly to Araris about hitting E4 at last and when it's not 3AM.

@DrakeMarshall Drakebro who'd you target?

night.png

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pg 1:

Spoiler

Stick - randed jester (probably a joke)

Aeo - 3p rand (probably a joke)

 

pg 2:

Spoiler

Kas - complicated something to do with getting spiked maybe

Lightringer - "basically a VT now. Since the night's over."

Kas claims for Drake - "Drake should also be Rebel Spiked"

pg 3:

Spoiler

Lightringer - "Rebel villager person"

Coffeecat - hemalurgic troublemaker

TUO - (CC's Coffeecat) hermalurgic troublemaker, swapped RBM & Lightringer (interesting choice)

Lightringer - Matchmaker, paired Aet & RBM (this is real btw)

Kas - Rebel Spiked

Coffeecat - swapped Stick & Aet (INTERESTING)

Kas - Spiked Drake

pg 4:

Spoiler

Kas about Drake - spiked each other or Drake didn't submit an action

Stick - claims she randed Kelsier, due to Coffeecat's swap claim, she claims Aet is Kelsier now

Aet - (CC's Stick ish) hardclaims Kelsier rand

updated, tada!

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Damn ok, so RBM and Aet are loverised, and TKN claims swapping Aet and Light, so Light and RBM are actually loverised

 

Coffee i don’t rly see motivation for e!TKN to CC when he could instead just claim one of the NPC roles using process of elimination given all these claims, like this is just bringing attention onto yourself and forcing a thunderdome for no good reason and I’d have expected him to be jester in this position but. Well. So ig I’m still Kelsier LOL but can’t hurt to village-side now 

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3 minutes ago, Stick. said:

Damn ok, so RBM and Aet are loverised, and TKN claims swapping Aet and Light, so Light and RBM are actually loverised

 

Coffee i don’t rly see motivation for e!TKN to CC when he could instead just claim one of the NPC roles using process of elimination given all these claims, like this is just bringing attention onto yourself and forcing a thunderdome for no good reason and I’d have expected him to be jester in this position but. Well. So ig I’m still Kelsier LOL but can’t hurt to village-side now 

I was told RBM and I are a two for one package deal.

Also how would we both be Kelsier tho, smh. This would be a great claim for an elim fwiw.

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Useful rules note #2 - spiked are actually friends not food in this game

I've just caught up

So let's see, I know people have already done this but sshhshshs lemme do it myself

Claims

Kasimir - Lerasium Spiked -> Spiked

Drake - Spiked -> Spiked

Coffeecat - Hemalurgic Troublemaker, Stick<->Aeternum (CONFLICTS TUO)

TUO - Hemalurgic Troublemaker, RBM<->Lightringer (CONFLICTS COFFEECAT)

Lightringer - Matchmaker, RBM<->Aeternum

Stick - Kelsier

Aeoryi - Hazekiller

Aeternum - ???

RBM - ???

Connectives

In the absence of even more people claiming to be the Hemalurgic Troublemaker, exactly 1 of <Coffeecat, TKN> is a rebel, and the other one is evil.

In the absence of anybody else claiming Matchmaker, Lightringer is confirmed to have started the game as a villager. If TUO is good, RBM is confirmed good. If TUO is evil, Lightringer is confirmed good.

Reads

Kas: confirmed village

Aeoryi: confirmed village

Lightringer: probably village? contingent on TUO/RBM shenanigans

RBM: ???

Aeternum: probably some flavor of evil?

Stick: Randed village 0%, randed evil who we must exe 50%, randed evil who we must not exe 50%, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I am pretty sure the recent Kelsier claim is actually indicative of what Stick started out as but I need to hash out what it means

TUO/Coffeecat: I kinda think the claim is bogus and TUO is evil, I kinda think Coffeecat's claim feels legit. I kinda think it's more likely TUO is the flavor of evil we want to execute compared to say whatever Stick started out as, also nobody's claimed to have swapped TUO so at least that's not something to worry over, TUO

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1 hour ago, Stick. said:

Damn ok, so RBM and Aet are loverised, and TKN claims swapping Aet and Light, so Light and RBM are actually loverised

 

Coffee i don’t rly see motivation for e!TKN to CC when he could instead just claim one of the NPC roles using process of elimination given all these claims, like this is just bringing attention onto yourself and forcing a thunderdome for no good reason and I’d have expected him to be jester in this position but. Well. So ig I’m still Kelsier LOL but can’t hurt to village-side now 

Pretty sure that's not how my role works. 

4 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

Well there is absolutely no way people believe TUO is HT, over, goodbye.

Great argument. 

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Option 1: Stick started out as Kelsier (Stick does not know the other evil roles)

- If Stick believes she's been swapped, it's in her best interests to claim truthfully, as it is a loss for her and everybody else if the new Kelsier gets executed. *However, Stick is vocally disbelieving in Coffeecat's claim to have swapped her with Aeternum, so this world is a weird one. However, "weird" doesn't disqualify it from being what happened.

- If Stick doesn't believe she's been swapped, it probably doesn't hurt that much to claim truthfully, as mindgames ensue about whether Stick is actually Kelsier or a Ministry member. *However, if Stick believes that other people can also figure out she wasn't swapped (which, she probably should believe that in this situation?), then pretending to believe she was swapped actually makes more sense, probably. Because then she can claim "ex" Ministry, and get executed when people figure out that Coffeecat is fake, and win.

Option 2: Stick started out as Kandra (Stick knows who the ministry members are, but the ministry members don't know Stick -- also, Stick probably just knows which of TUO/Coffeecat is real, bc the liar is either Kelsier, Ministry Member #1, or Ministry Member #2, and Stick knows 2/3 of those)

- If Stick swapped with Ministry!Aeternum, she would likely claim to be ex-Ministry, get Aeternum executed, and then Stick & Aeternum both win gg.

- If Stick swapped with non-ministry!Aeternum, well. Either Aeternum was village, in which case Stick is now village and Aeternum is now Kandra, so flagging Aeternum as a jester is pro-village and helps her win condition. Or Aeternum was Kelsier, in which case Stick is now Kelsier, and claiming to have started as Kelsier makes us more likely to believe that she now has a different role, which helps her win condition. Either way, I kinda feel it makes sense?

- If Stick doesn't believe she was swapped, see option 1

Option 3: Stick started out as Ministry (Stick and the other Ministry member know each other)

- If Stick swapped with Ministry!Aeternum, then claiming Kelsier makes a lot of sense from Stick. *Then again, by the same measure, it makes less sense that Aeternum would claim to have started as Kelsier in this situation. The point of this is for the 2 ministry members to keep each other alive, and that doesn't work as well if they're both huskying it out over who's the real jester. It works much better if only 1 of them is Kelsier.

- If Stick swapped with non-Ministry!Aeternum, then claiming to have started as Kelsier is somewhat confusing, because in a village!Aeternum world, Stick only needs to execute Aeternum to win. But well, Aeternum isn't exactly trustworthy. Maybe she assumes Aeternum is Kelsier/Kandra, and plays accordingly. This feels less intuitive to me, though.

- If Stick doesn't believes she was swapped, then claiming to have started as Kelsier while shading the person who purportedly swapped her is honestly loltastic, and a viable Ministry strategy for IKYK reasons. I'm not sure if it's the sort of thing Stick would gravitate towards, though, because there are definitely safer options for Ministry!Stick in this scenario.

Conclusions: I think what we're witnessing here is just the Kandra and Kelsier getting swapped :P

EDIT:

To be clear, I'm willing to be convinced that Coffeecat is the one who's lying and not TUO.

But I think looking in <Coffee, TUO> is probably a better shout right now than looking in <Stick, Aeternum>.

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