Long Game 101: The Edge of Empire

[The Unknown Order he/him]

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

regularly-scheduled murder party

 

Edited July 31 by The Unknown Order
If I'm going to go out, it's going to be in a blaze of memes

[Ashbringer he/him]

5 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

@Ashbringer

I didn't stab you in the back bro

Coffee was the one who fired a shot.

I didn't even know for sure if Coffee was a coinshot, or would be shooting that night.

And I'm quite sure coinshot!Coffee would be shooting at me. It had nothing to do with you, and everything to do with self-defense.

...is what I would say, if Kas hadn't point-blank told us with GM knowledge that Coffee had actually been trying to shoot Xino.

I'm still thrown by that fact, honestly. I really did think Coffee would always shoot me there. And I really did try my best to make you win.

If I screwed you over, I screwed myself over equally as much that night, so saying I stabbed you in the back is sort of just fake news.

Not trying to convince you of anything, just. Saying my piece.

I mean, yeah. Kind of the playing-to-wincon game. Putting an Elim and a Village Coinshot was rarely ever going to turn out well for me, especially if we didn't connect through PMs first off. Besides, Coffee was going to shoot you any...

... wait huh

... okay then

... well, you did lie to me when I asked you if you did that  but I was Village then so understandable.

5 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

• When I accused Xino of being the Fourth Bridge, Ash was like "well yeah, obviously, I knew that." If you don't trust my maybe biased take then add Ashbringer's to that.

To be clear, I didn't know know.

I just assumed that if Lieutenant was in, and the Village was otherwise really high power roles (Intelligence Officer, Radio Officer, Security Officer, Research Officer), then 4B would be in. Plus Xino was playing incredibly far under the radar, like TUO was - which was part of the reason I couldn't really determine whether it was E!you or E!RBM, because it would either be E!Drake and E!TUO with 4B!Xino helping for the tie, or E!RBM and E!Xino with 4B!TUO helping with either the tie or getting an Elim out. (Another reason I was more suspicious of Security Officer Coffee, or otherwise considered that you might have been suspicious of it.)

But yeah. Plus there is (or was) a chance of him not being 4B, but if he wasn't, then no one else was going to be.

[CadCom he/him]

Ok. Sorry guys, I know I've flip flopped a lot this cycle. I want to be clear, this isn't because of my inability to make decisions or perform proper analysis. A reminder I had Drake and TUO pegged D3 (I'm a good detective, just not good at deciding between 2 well-deserving teams)

Realistically, I should look for any way to win. It's not going to happen. We all know it. If I had noted at the beginning of the cycle that there was a possibility of moving the kingmaker position from The village to the elims, it would have been a possibility. But I noticed too late. 

I'm still proud of the game all the teams played, and think it all unfolded only during this cycle. I'm going to change my vote one last time to Ashbringer. (The previous Elim vote) @DrakeMarshall may want to move yours. 

I know I don't really need to pay attention in the night cycle if I did let the game go on. But for my sanity, I think I need to end the game now.

Xino did excellent at pushing the game as far as they could, but Drake and TUO just outplayed everyone. I will be dropping off now, until the end of the cycle likely.  

[xinoehp512 he/him]

Cadcom.

@CadCom.

I am begging you to read Drake's post again.

And think to yourself will I regret my decisions if Drake tells me that he deliberately manipulated me? 

Because he did. 100%.

@CadCom I am begging you please respond to me it's past 1 here and I can't go to bed until this is resolved

[CadCom he/him]

1 minute ago, xinoehp512 said:

Cadcom.

@CadCom.

I am begging you to read Drake's post again.

And think to yourself will I regret my decisions if Drake tells me that he deliberately manipulated me? 

Because he did. 100%.

You got me before I signed off. If you confirm you're village right now, and not also deliberately manipulating me, I'll consider changing my vote. But I am turning off my phone immediately after hitting post. I'll wake up about 2 hours before rollover. 

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

5 minutes ago, CadCom said:

@DrakeMarshall may want to move yours.

aaaaa I have pretty mixed feelings about doing this, though

I kinda don't wanna

as much as I felt the need to say it, it kinda doesn't feel right if my most recent post persuaded anyone to side with the elims

oh I'll figure it out later

maybe when TUO is around

happy murderpartying

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

23 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

Cadcom.

@CadCom.

I am begging you to read Drake's post again.

And think to yourself will I regret my decisions if Drake tells me that he deliberately manipulated me? 

Because he did. 100%.

well, we did slightly mislead the village in that TUO and I have both said we'd definitely not kill ourselves if the game went to N4, but meanwhile in our doc we sat down and actually deliberated over what our decision would be

it's kinda moot, though, because our current decision does not feature a village victory in it, so what we said from the beginning was basically true

and I'd say that's kind of a fair decision for us to make with all due respect to the village because we only arrive at that inflection point if the village first decides to doom our win con

If you're implying that I'm manipulating people into believing you're the Fourth Bridge, I'm clearly not doing that, though. It's a bit strange to assert that I'd lie about my action failing, since for most of the cycle I didn't even know that my action "failing" (instead of just not doing what it was supposed to) meant you were the Fourth Bridge.

well, idk, imma peace out for reals this time

[xinoehp512 he/him]

45 minutes ago, CadCom said:

You got me before I signed off. If you confirm you're village right now, and not also deliberately manipulating me, I'll consider changing my vote. But I am turning off my phone immediately after hitting post. I'll wake up about 2 hours before rollover. 

I'm the Fourth Bridge. I haven't been trying to hide that fact this cycle, not since you mentioned the fact that the elims could shoot themselves to give the village the win.

Granted, I haven't straight up stated it either. That's on me. I'm sorry. I could, and probably should, have been more explicit.

I'm going to try to convince you not to let the elims have the win. Technically speaking, that's intentional manipulation, so...

0/2. A terrible start. :P. I can hear the death knells already. 

I'm going to write two more long posts, or as long as I can manage at any rate. 

If you take nothing else away from these posts, know that I still truly believe you have a chance to win. I won't lie and say that I wouldn't be happy to win myself, but I would also be quite happy if you won.

I don't know what the elims are going to do. I do know that they have a strong incentive to say that they will choose to screw over the village if given the choice, regardless of what their actual convictions are. 

I'm starting to ramble. I'd better move on to the actual arguments.

@Ashbringer I dunno if you want to put in a good word for me, or flame me, or whatever. Either way, you are the only one left that shares Cadcom's alignment, which makes you the only person he can 100% trust. 

Edited July 31 by xinoehp512

[Ashbringer he/him]

47 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

@Ashbringer I dunno if you want to put in a good word for me, or flame me, or whatever. Either way, you are the only one left that shares Cadcom's alignment, which makes you the only person he can 100% trust. 

I mean, technically speaking I don’t share his alignment 

I win with the Village, I’m not a registered member. I think.

[xinoehp512 he/him]

1 minute ago, Ashbringer said:

I mean, technically speaking I don’t share his alignment 

I win with the Village, I’m not a registered member. I think.

Technically true. But you do still win with him, which means he can 100% trust that you aren't trying to manipulate him in order to win instead of him, which is not true of anyone else in this game.

A primary goal of mine at this point is to help CadCom avoid making a decision he regrets. If you back him up on whatever decision he makes, that would go a long way.

[Ashbringer he/him]

Tbh sounds like CadCom’s made up his mind. And I’ve kinda run out of… something’s run out, at least. Not sure what. Had a (minor) cold the last few days so a lot of batteries are low.

[xinoehp512 he/him]

30 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Tbh sounds like CadCom’s made up his mind. And I’ve kinda run out of… something’s run out, at least. Not sure what. Had a (minor) cold the last few days so a lot of batteries are low.

Yes, but I think CadCom's only made up his mind because of what Drake said, and I don't think that Drake is being genuine here. It doesn't sit right with me.

And to be honest, I'm not ready to give up. I won't be, not until the Aftermath goes up.

But I get the "something running out". I'm glad there's not a game starting right after this one because I definitely would not be able to play it.

I just finished the post I've been working on for the past 2-3 hours... looks like it merged.

Drake's Post 

I'm assuming the reason you (@CadCom) changed your mind is because of Drake's post. If not, I'm about to look pretty stupid. :P.

My goal is to enumerate the various ways in which Drake's post manipulates the reader. Some of this manipulation may have been unintentional; I suspect much of it was intentional. Some of this manipulation may be benign; I suspect parts of it are malicious. My opinion is that the more you understand about the techniques used, the more sure you will be about whatever decision you end up making.

As a final note before I get into the post; Drake is still playing the game. He still wants to win, and thinks that his post will make it more likely he does. Would he post it otherwise?

9 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Okay, I have things to say.

@xinoehp512

Do I think it's fair game to trick me into not using all of my mechanical powers on the pretext of a fair duel, and then use a roleblock to guarantee a win? Fundamentally, 100% yes. This is a game significantly about lying, and you lied to gain an advantage. I don't dispute the process or the outcome, well played, you should probably win this if I can't convince the village to side with me over you.

With this, Drake is saying that he will choose to let me win if given the chance.

9 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Do I think that going out of my way to have a duel was a pretty fun thing to do last night? Yes.

Do I think I'd ever do it again, given how it turned out? Pretty unlikely.

Reconcile that however you like.

Somehow, it matters to me that you aren't village, and didn't just win fair-and-square. If that happened, well, I assumed that risk in accepting a duel when I thought the cards were on the table and I had the upper hand. If that's what happened, I wouldn't regret doing it, I don't think. But if the moral of the story here is that it was a misplay to go out of my way to be sporting when I have the upper hand, because others generally won't do the same, I think I can learn that lesson. I know this is partly a playstyle thing, but different playstyles have different tradeoffs, and I'd put it to you that your tradeoff here is getting a win today versus living in a world where duels like that can happen.

With this, Drake is throwing shade on my character.

Put together with the point above, Drake has opened his post with the following two arguments:

1. The village has no hope of winning.

2. I (the FB) do not deserve to win.

If Drake can convince one villager that the above two statements are true, he wins. Because of this, I am confident in saying that this section was not actually directed towards me, despite me being tagged. 

9 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

...I admit that part of why I agreed to do a duel was because Kas kept insisting that yes, he'd totally keep the game running even if there was nothing to actually do, and I just didn't think there could be a Fourth Bridge as that would mean 4 non-villagers in a 9-player game. I don't do very well when I'm left to my own devices

This section is meant to engender sympathy for Drake.

9 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

@Ashbringer

I didn't stab you in the back bro

Coffee was the one who fired a shot.

I didn't even know for sure if Coffee was a coinshot, or would be shooting that night.

And I'm quite sure coinshot!Coffee would be shooting at me. It had nothing to do with you, and everything to do with self-defense.

...is what I would say, if Kas hadn't point-blank told us with GM knowledge that Coffee had actually been trying to shoot Xino.

Here Drake brings up knowledge that he received from Kas. This serves a dual purpose: first of all, to support the point he is trying to make at the moment (that he didn't betray Ash) and to introduce the idea of GM information. This will be important later.

It's also possible that this statement serves a third purpose: setting himself up as having saved me, (potentially as a way to paint himself more worthy than me?) It's even possible that he fabricated this piece of evidence entirely. (I might be totally off the rails with this, but it wouldn't surprise me, either.)

9 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

I'm still thrown by that fact, honestly. I really did think Coffee would always shoot me there. And I really did try my best to make you win.

If I screwed you over, I screwed myself over equally as much that night, so saying I stabbed you in the back is sort of just fake news.

With this, Drake is downplaying his involvement in the Lieutenant situation in an attempt to convince Ashbringer to side with him.

9 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Not trying to convince you of anything, just. Saying my piece.

-Never mind. I suppose I must have been wrong about that; clearly Drake isn't trying to convince Ash of anything.-

...Turns out you can't strikethrough on mobile. Oh well.

On a more serious note, the purpose of saying this is to attempt to subconsciously influence the reader to consider the writer trustworthy/genuine.

 

9 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

@CadCom

Xino is definitely the fourth bridge.

There's what I already said:

But there's also a bunch of new reasons that came up this cycle:

• When I accused Xino of being the Fourth Bridge, Ash was like "well yeah, obviously, I knew that." If you don't trust my maybe biased take then add Ashbringer's to that.
• Xino posted after that and was just fully going along with Ashbringer without denying it. If that's not a tacit admission to Ash that he's the 4B, I don't what is.
• Xino only started even trying to pretend to be village after you posted and sided against him. I think a villager would definitely argue that they're village before that point, for it's own sake, because it was true, and that's a sufficient reason. This is not that. This is calculated and reactive lobbying.

This is not true. I was not trying to pretend to be a villager at any point after you voted for Ashbringer the first time.

9 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

• At the same time, Xino was like "well, I convinced Drake not to win, that counts for something right?" This is an individual argument of Xino's merit and why he deserves to win. That would be entirely irrelevant if Xino were a villager. Village!Xino shouldn't be trying to convince anyone why he, specifically, deserves to win, because he doesn't win as an individual. If he's village, then your own victory is on the line too, and the correct path to victory is convincing people he's village, not convincing people he's worthy of winning. An argument like this only matters for the Fourth Bridge to make.
• Apparently, there's mechanical proof that Xino roleblocked me, because my action "failed" and that doesn't happen from a protect. I didn't even know this was a thing. Anyways, villagers don't have roleblocking powers. Only the 4B can do that.
• Apparently, none of the above matters, because Kas just outright told us in his GM soapbox that Xino is the Fourth Bridge.

Again, Drake brings up Kas. Again, this will be important later.

The main purpose of this whole section is to present Drake as someone who is being helpful to the village.

9 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

@CadCom (2, electric boogaloo)

Why would the elims kill themselves though?

Let's do some numbers.

There are 5 players alive right now: 2 elims, 2 villagers, 1 fourth bridge.

The elims win at parity:

This means that if 1 non-elim dies, there are as many elims as there are other kinds of player. The game is over and we win.

Drake is emphasizing how close the elims are to victory.

9 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

This will happen if we vote out any non-elim today. It will also happen if we don't vote out anyone today, because then there's a night turn, and we still have a poisoning and an unblockable kill.

Drake brings up the poisoning to further emphasize the power of the elims. It is of note that the poisoning is irrelevant to the game state going forwards.

9 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

On the other hand, the Fourth Bridge wins at the beginning of D5.

The reason I'm suggesting that the village play kingmaker, giving up on winning and deciding whether you want the Fourth Bridge or the Elims to win, is because as far as I can see it, that's the situation you're in. If everyone plays the game at face value and doesn't deliberately self-sabotage, the village can't win. The elims can. We are not the same.jpg  Honestly, the option for the elims to suicide just to spite the 4B didn't occur to me.

Drake is downplaying the possibility of the elims self-shooting in two ways here: first, by implying that it is not "playing the game at face value", and second, implying that he wouldn't have thought of it. -Whether or not this is true is left as an exercise to the reader.-

Refer back to the first part of the post for a reminder of why Drake needs the village to believe this.

In addition, Drake is making the argument here that the elims shooting themself is not "face value gameplay" while the village *not* voting out a confirmed elim *is*. He is very careful not to phrase it like that, however, as that would make it more likely for the reader to see it as a contradiction.

9 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

I do see what you're suggesting now. Mostly because Kas explained it in detail Thanks, Kas

Once again, bringing up Kas. We're almost there.

9 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

If you want to doom the elims and make us technically kingmakers, we'll cross that bridge when we get to it, but I'd contend that's not where we're at right now. You have to make a choice first in order for that to happen. You're the kingmakers as of right now. And if it were the elims, I find it highly questionable how you think we'd ever side with you right after you went out of your way to side against us, no offense.

-Dang, and I was feeling so offended, too.-

Finally, he says it right out. By not leading with this, however, he has conditioned the reader to accept the statement as fact. 

Furthermore, by emphasizing that the village are the kingmakers and that choosing to vote out an elim makes the elims kingmakers, Drake paints this course of action as "giving up power."

9 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

I'm not trying to shade the village, but I think it says something that the only path to victory for you here involves another faction not just giving up on winning but actually using their own mechanical powers to speedrun their losscon and kill themselves. I guess it's somewhat subjective, I guess there is a choice on some level, but I do think the village is mechanically worse off than the other two factions in a way that's meaningful, and that your PtV is a harder sell.

Here Drake is trying to convince the village that they deserve to lose.

9 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

And because it's subjective, my subjective opinion about it as one of the players happens to matter. You're assuming we would burn ourselves to the ground just to give you a win on a silver platter, and I think TUO and I are in accord in saying this isn't something the elims particularly have appetite for.

Drake once again affirming that he will not give the village the win.

Again, see point 1 on why Drake is incentivized to have the village believe this.

9 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

@Kasimir

There's a common thread throughout all of the above mentions.

All roads lead back to Kas.

At last, we are here!

I would like to preface this section with the disclaimer that I am not going to comment on Kas's decision to make the post, and will not really consider Drake's objections as legitimate. To the extent that they are, there is a time and place to deal with them; that time is not now.

9 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Kas is the mastermind who's been orchestrating the conflict between Scadrial and Roshar.

Kas was plotting to take over.

Kas is the illuminati conspiracy.

By starting with this, Drake provides a counterbalance to his negative thoughts later. He wants the lower the reader's guard so that they will sympathize with him.

9 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Okay, but seriously, I'm actually a little bit miffed right now.

Only a little. It's still been a fun game, and honestly CadCom saying I played well is all the validation I need <3. You know me, I'm not really one to stay angry.

Once again, Drake engenders sympathy. Then, by claiming he does not often get angry, he lends more weight to the anger he goes on to express.

9 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

But on multiple counts you've slipped GM knowledge that we shouldn't know about, and I think credibly some of it might've mattered.

What's more, you made a big analysis post for the village, and in it you're literally saying things like this:

Bro I'm sorry, but I protest, I don't think it's remotely appropriate for GMs to be coming down from on high and saying crem like that.

Whether it's true or not is besides the point. If I'm supposed to try to play the game normally and try to win, then I have a reasonable expectation that the GM isn't going to call out from the sidelines and essentially say "Drake is manipulating you don't listen to him it's not in your best interest."

Either it's false and you shouldn't be saying it, or it's true and I'm playing to win, and people buying my spin and potentially being mislead is an acceptable outcome of the game, not something you need to step in and course correct.

Drake is naturally cagey about whether or not he is trying to mislead people, for what should be obvious reasons.

9 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

(The truth is a little in both columns, inasmuch as I genuinely believed the village was unambiguously a kingmaker that couldn't win and wasn't intentionally misleading anyone over that, but I was trying to argue as best as I could and win people over to my side... which is something I should have every right to do, if we're still trying to play out the game organically.)

This parenthetical serves to reinforce the idea that the village cannot win. It also serves to support the claim that Drake is acting in good faith/genuinely... and not "intentionally misleading" anyone.

9 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Sure, maybe you just want to make sure everyone understands the gamestate, but. Did you spell it out for me the times I was getting it wrong, like when I didn't realize the "your action failed" message meant I must've been roleblocked and there was definitely a Fourth Bridge? I'm not saying I think you should've, but I am highlighting that 1) once you start doing things like this, it isn't clear where to draw the line and 2) that's a relatively low-impact thing that you could've done that would've conceivably helped the elims a little bit, and here you're doing a generally higher-impact thing on behalf of the village, which makes it difficult to see your activity as overall impartial, even if we ignore that part where you point-blank state that "listening to Drake isn't in line with the outcome you want."

By arguing this, Drake paints himself as the victim of the situation, engendering sympathy for himself and discrediting all other's claims on winning.

9 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

It feelsbad because I'm sure you were trying to fix the course of the game, as you saw it. I'm sure you were doing what you thought was pragmatically the best thing for the game and everybody's fun. But I don't agree with the praxis.

I think the game was okay before, I think we might've figured out some of the stuff you said on our own, or if we didn't I think that wouldn't have invalidated the game.

I think your commentary did not succeed at being unbiased, and you knowingly prefaced your comments as violating GM impartiality.

I'm not sure that even if your commentary had succeeded at unbiased, you stepping in and laying down the facts of the gamestate on us ignorant masses of players would have actually increased my willingness to engage and play through that gamestate properly.

Logically, I think a participant of this game is an eligible person to vote for, and to the extent that you're stepping down off your GM perch to yell at us, I deem you an eligible person to vote for.  This is a bit tongue-in-cheek, but I don't really have anything else to do with my vote rn, seeing as everyone's voting TUO, so. Kasimir.

Drake might also have been trying to discredit Kas's post fundamentally but I won't speak on that out of respect to Araris's post.

 

My thesis: Drake tried to appear innocuous and friendly (as though he wasn't trying to win) while trying very hard to manipulate the village into letting him win.

@Ashbringer, what do you think? Am I onto something?

 

Edited July 31 by xinoehp512

[xinoehp512 he/him]

Notes on Drake's posts post the large-post:

3 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

aaaaa I have pretty mixed feelings about doing this, though

I kinda don't wanna

as much as I felt the need to say it, it kinda doesn't feel right if my most recent post persuaded anyone to side with the elims

oh I'll figure it out later

maybe when TUO is around

happy murderpartying

This post serves to support the idea that the large post was genuine (i.e. not intentionally/deceptively manipulative)

2 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

well, we did slightly mislead the village in that TUO and I have both said we'd definitely not kill ourselves if the game went to N4, but meanwhile in our doc we sat down and actually deliberated over what our decision would be

it's kinda moot, though, because our current decision does not feature a village victory in it, so what we said from the beginning was basically true

and I'd say that's kind of a fair decision for us to make with all due respect to the village because we only arrive at that inflection point if the village first decides to doom our win con

The crux of the issue is that the village simply cannot trust any statement of the elims that they will side with the FB in this scenario... since the elims saying anything else would be directly against their win-con.

2 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

If you're implying that I'm manipulating people into believing you're the Fourth Bridge, I'm clearly not doing that, though. It's a bit strange to assert that I'd lie about my action failing, since for most of the cycle I didn't even know that my action "failing" (instead of just not doing what it was supposed to) meant you were the Fourth Bridge.

well, idk, imma peace out for reals this time

Here Drake creates a straw man argument, i.e. putting an argument in my mouth. It is late, though, so I suppose I'll have to forgive this logical fallacy. Undoubtedly I've made one or two myself

I had a big RP segment planned but I have to wake up in three hours so... I don't think that's happening.  

[xinoehp512 he/him]

@CadCom TL;DR

I am the Fourth Bridge. If that means you don't trust me, so be it.

I think that Drake deliberately wanted to convince you of a few things when he made that post:

1a. The village has no chance of winning

2a. I don't deserve to win

3a. You don't deserve to win/it would be 'wrong' for you to try to win.

4a. The elims deserve to win.

I've tried to convince you of a few things myself:

1b. Drake had incentive to get you to believe all of those things, regardless of whether or not he believed them

2b. Drake's post was designed to convince you of those things without you realizing it.

3b. You still have a chance to win. (I do think you deserve it, for what it's worth. You were the only one to vote Drake, after all.)

4b. I deserve to win (more than the elims)

#1b I hope should be self-evident if you believe Drake is trying to win; #2b is what the big post was all about. #3b I can't provide any evidence for, since I'm not an elim, so you'll have to decide whether or not that is true on your own. #4b I'm obviously biased on  so you'll have to decide that one on your own too.

All I can ask is that you don't take the eliminators' comments at face value without seriously considering them. If you really do come to conclusions 1-4a on your own and are certain you haven't been unduly influenced by the elims, I think I can be happy with that.

As a final note, if you're wondering if and how any particular statement I've made was meant to influence you, just ask. I'll tell you (if I wake up in time XP) I want you to make your decision as face-up as possible.

Edited July 31 by xinoehp512

[xinoehp512 he/him]

Hello @CadCom

I see you

[The Unknown Order he/him]

3 hours ago, xinoehp512 said:

All I can ask is that you don't take the eliminators' comments at face value without seriously considering them. If you really do come to conclusions 1-4a on your own and are certain you haven't been unduly influenced by the elims, I think I can be happy with that.

As a final note, if you're wondering if and how any particular statement I've made was meant to influence you, just ask. I'll tell you (if I wake up in time XP) I want you to make your decision as face-up as possible.

I could do my own point by point analysis, but I'm not really interested. I think CadCom’s smart enough to realize the inherent contradiction that this entire analysis is. For my part I'll add some context on a part or two.

Starting with the ending cause I've already got it quoted. I don't think you can honestly say any part of that wasn’t intended to influence. You didn't just happen to decide to make three mega posts right after your win was no longer guaranteed. 

The thing about where we're at right now is that we're both trying to convince the village. That's what we should be doing first and foremost. It doesn’t matter how genuine any post is, because it can be genuine and trying to influence at the same time, without becoming less genuine. 

This post right now, is trying to convince the village. I'm actually hoping it will convince you as well, Xino. I don't expect you to throwaway a decently likely victory, but as I'm going to say in a bit,  I don’t think Drake was being disingenuous. I hope I can convince you of that and maybe to be a bit less cynical.

To start, Drake hasn't outright told me in our doc if his posts have been genuine, but I personally think they were. At the beginning of this cycle, Drake wrote a single sentence, then disappeared until he posted his mega post. He then expressed dissatisfaction at the game state and we talked about other things. My impression of his tone lined up with what he said. I think, while he was trying to convince (like everyone is), I think his tone, words, and dissatisfaction were real.

5 hours ago, xinoehp512 said:

The crux of the issue is that the village simply cannot trust any statement of the elims that they will side with the FB in this scenario... since the elims saying anything else would be directly against their win-con.

This is the only other major point I want to deal with. Sure sure you can't believe us, but I think CadCom and Ash both know that this is perfectly in character for us.

If I end up dying, me and Drake have decided to do our actions towards the best writeup possible. We also find our targets ti be amusing. A side effect of choosing this path is the 4b winning. We're not upset with that actually for reasons we discussed in the doc, and it's going to create the funniest scenario in our opinion.

That will be all, I'll be around but I'd kinda prefer not to make another megapost.

[CadCom he/him]

Hi, yes I'm here. So Here's where I'm at. I am looking at what I would do if I were an elim, and someone else were me. This has nothing to do with Kas's post, and only very little to do with Drake's post. 

This cycle, I have Voted Drake, then Ash, Then TUO, all within the first 25 hours, then back to Ash. I've seemed fickle, uncertain, and a bit whimsical. I've been pushed around by the whims of those who have a chance to win, unlike Ash who has remained firm in his choice.

If I were an elim, looking at someone else in the same position, I would feel like of the 5 people left, That person is least deserving of a win. Everyone here is more deserving of a win than I am. 

I have considered your point, about being manipulated by drake. I don't feel as if I was any more influenced by drake than I was by you. 

IIRC, the vote count now is 
 

TUO (2): Xino, Ash
Ash (2): CadCom, TUO
Kas (1): Drake

Drake, your post did not influence me that much to switch. I'd already been considering switching all afternoon in the back of my mind.

Right now, with a tie, the win most likely goes to the Elims, unless they decide to dual again. 

I have made up my mind regarding the final resting place of my vote, 

[xinoehp512 he/him]

2 minutes ago, CadCom said:

Drake

Drake, your post did not influence me that much to switch. I'd already been considering switching all afternoon in the back of my mind.

Well, that does make me feel better. 

Do you at least agree with my analysis? Or was I being driven crazy by sleep deprivation?

3 minutes ago, CadCom said:

unless they decide to dual again. 

Nope. No more duels. I'm done with this game ;-;

10 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

Starting with the ending cause I've already got it quoted. I don't think you can honestly say any part of that wasn’t intended to influence. You didn't just happen to decide to make three mega posts right after your win was no longer guaranteed. 

Yep. Almost like I stated that part at the beginning. 

11 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

The thing about where we're at right now is that we're both trying to convince the village. That's what we should be doing first and foremost. It doesn’t matter how genuine any post is, because it can be genuine and trying to influence at the same time, without becoming less genuine. 

 

11 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

This post right now, is trying to convince the village. I'm actually hoping it will convince you as well, Xino. I don't expect you to throwaway a decently likely victory, but as I'm going to say in a bit,  I don’t think Drake was being disingenuous. I hope I can convince you of that and maybe to be a bit less cynical.

I feel like attempting to belittle the village for trying to win is problematic. I don't like it. That's all.

[Kasimir he/him]

Apologies, but I've just gotten off work with back-to-back meetings all day. I'm not going to be able to do rollover tonight and will need to do it in the morning. I will regard the thread as closed at the proper time, and would request people respect closure. Any other catch-up is simply going to have to wait.

[The Unknown Order he/him]

12 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

I feel like attempting to belittle the village for trying to win is problematic. I don't like it. That's all.

Belittle the village?

[xinoehp512 he/him]

14 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

Belittle the village?

You know what, never mind. That was out of line. :P.

Whether or not Drake intended the manipulations to be genuine, I don't know. It wouldn't change me writing the post though. I wanted CadCom to understand ways in which his thoughts might have been influenced without him realizing it. At that point, if he voted against me... Well tough beats for me. Guess I should've lied.

Edit: Oh, and if you want me to believe your genuineness, talk to me after the game. I don't trust elims on a fundamental level.

Edited July 31 by xinoehp512

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

c'mon how can I properly angst about the game if my team is winning lemme have my angst

also cadcom please stop being so hard on yourself

like you were the only one voting against the D3 RBM bandwagon that's pretty cool right

[CadCom he/him]

46 minutes ago, CadCom said:

I have made up my mind regarding the final resting place of my vote, 

Quote

I never said what that final resting place would be.

Caddor was Scadrian by blood. But his family had been travelled much before Settling in Roshar, before Caddor could even crawl. The only planet he had ever known was Roshar. 
Wonderful Roshar, with its predictable storm patterns. The Wonderful Purelake in his backyard. Caddors memories of running across the knee-deep waters growing up were the reason his loyalties lied with Roshar. 

Now he was the station captain of the Rosharan fleet's most prized vessel, the Fourth Bridge. Caddor knew the Bridge was almost Sentient. He felt the presence of it's intelligence since long before he was captain, when he first saw the ship on the day it left on its maiden voyage. It was the premier research and espionage vessel of any Rosharan nation. Likely because it was built through treaty from nearly every nation. A true reflection of the unity of Roshar and its  influence from Cultivation and Honor against all other planets and shards. 

Caddor had a duty to this ship and its crew. And he had already let down the crew. Most of the senior officers had already been killed because of Caddor's lack of candor. Only him and the Lieutenant were left. 

And Caddor knew he would not be able to overpower the infiltrators from his homeworld. Caddor had to do what he could for his ship. That is why he couldn't voice his opinions as often about who he thought was the infiltrators. It was part of his duty to keep the ship running, and manage the crew. 

Caddor took to organizing the captains chambers, and finishing out his captains logs.

"Captain's Log         17th day of Betab. 

I have failed to secure the ship. Despite having located the infiltrators, I was unable to dissuade my crew from rioting and sending crew members they deemed suspicious out the airlock. 

It seems our greatest weakness was exploited. The Scadrians knew our crew lacked basic communication and trust. Even as I was able to determine that Drake and The Unknown Order were the infiltrators, those Scadrians were able to convince that our own research officer was actually the Scadrian. 

Our mission is too critical to fall into the wrong hands, so I will be destroying all the research we've done on the asteroid field, as well as on... other elements critical to planetary security, as I would not want that information to fall into scadrian hands. 

In doing so, I am missing my final opportunity to negotiate the terms of our surrender. But this ship is too majestic to destroy, while the information too valuable to let fall into the wrong hands. While I have a duty to my remaining Lieutenant, Ash, my duty to the ship weighs more heavily on my heart. I can only hope that Ash, on my behalf, is able to find a method in saving our ship and remaining crew. 

I fear I will soon be captured, and this may be my last entry. I know not my fate. 

-Caddor, Station Captain, Fourth Bridge, 
Signing off."

 And with that, Caddor set fire to a pile of papers, computers, and other archives in the archives room, and walked out the door, accepting his fate, whatever that may be. 
-----
I am not going to be active at all next cycle. So I accept my fate, whatever that may be. I've decided the best thing I can do for myself, and my team this game, is to go out with a bit of flavor, that matches my role in the game, as the station captain. 

Not kidding, but this decision comes because I had a dream last night that I made this decision, and it opened a hidden mechanic that revived the crew. I realize that's obviously not going to happen. But it's obviously what my subconscious wanted to do, so I gotta go with it. 

Can't wait to get on in a few days to offer thoughts on gameplay in general. Love you all. 
We've got about 15 minutes until approximate Rollover time, from my calculations. 

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

...ah soddit I can't just let my docbro die

Ashbringer

if there was a way to crash this kingmaker Mexican standoff clowncar with no winners I'd have probably tried to convince everyone on that but it was not in the cards so let's just cross the finish line

I don't think I can remember a game with as many unexpected reversals as this tbh

[Kasimir he/him]

It's so late and there are more deadlines but I thank everyone for respecting closure.