Long Game 101: The Edge of Empire

[Coffeecat she/her]

well if drake poisoned bee, wouldnt that make bee read drake as evil?

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

If Bee is telling the truth, then afaik the only mechanical way it's possible for Bee to produces a guilty result with his scan is if Bee himself evaluates as evil under an alignment scan, because the Steward ability points his action back at himself.

Except that's fairly nonsensical  e!RBM knows my alignment already, and has no real need of scanning anybody, so e!RBM probably just lies about having scanned a certain result, even if he has the role. Or if he did actually go through the motions of scanning me, he'd have known something was wrong after unexpectedly getting a guilty result, and probably wouldn't be doing this.

...I'll caveat that it's possible that there's a framer who framed village!RBM last night and therefore village!RBM redirected into scanning himself got an evil result. But since this requires both 1) a framer to exist and 2) the framer to have targeted RBM specifically, I don't think it's as likely as RBM not telling the truth.

[CadCom he/him]

Alright, so RBM claims research officer PMd them, having scanned drake as evil. 

Drake counter claims saying they're steward, and poisoned RBM, so if RBM actually did the scan in their own, then that wouldn't be good either. 

RBM claims that they actually are research officer. 

---

Should have asked a few clarifying questions earlier since now I might not get answers. but @Kasimir can a role listed as black and bold technically be either alignment?

And the more important clarifying question(not really): what are the NAs that need to get to sleep tonight? (Or potentially last night)(I just didn't recognize the abbreviation)

---

Back to my thoughts: none of the definite evil roles have scan ability, and likely wouldn't need an alignment scan, makes me lean, and seems like an odd claim for an elim to make what laying low is probably a better strat.  I'm inclined to village read RBM. 

Drakes counter claim seems valid too, because they shared that they had targeted RBM before RBM revealed they were Research Officer. 

So to me the only logical explanation is the one Drake believed to be least likely, that the infiltrator also targeted RBM, to make them scan as evil. 

I'm going to soft clear RBM and Drake for now, but with Drake, I'm adding in the caveat that if black roles could be good or bad, it's possible that he is a saboteur steward. 

At this time, I think I'll actually retract my No Exe since there is more info now, it would be more unwise to use it. I don't know who I will vote for quite yet though. 

It won't be RBM or Drake most likely though. Stay tuned. 

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

6 hours ago, CadCom said:

Alright, so RBM claims research officer PMd them, having scanned drake as evil. 

Drake counter claims saying they're steward, and poisoned RBM, so if RBM actually did the scan in their own, then that wouldn't be good either. 

RBM claims that they actually are research officer. 

---

Should have asked a few clarifying questions earlier since now I might not get answers. but @Kasimir can a role listed as black and bold technically be either alignment?

And the more important clarifying question(not really): what are the NAs that need to get to sleep tonight? (Or potentially last night)(I just didn't recognize the abbreviation)

---

Back to my thoughts: none of the definite evil roles have scan ability, and likely wouldn't need an alignment scan, makes me lean, and seems like an odd claim for an elim to make what laying low is probably a better strat.  I'm inclined to village read RBM. 

Drakes counter claim seems valid too, because they shared that they had targeted RBM before RBM revealed they were Research Officer. 

So to me the only logical explanation is the one Drake believed to be least likely, that the infiltrator also targeted RBM, to make them scan as evil. 

I'm going to soft clear RBM and Drake for now, but with Drake, I'm adding in the caveat that if black roles could be good or bad, it's possible that he is a saboteur steward. 

At this time, I think I'll actually retract my No Exe since there is more info now, it would be more unwise to use it. I don't know who I will vote for quite yet though. 

It won't be RBM or Drake most likely though. Stay tuned. 

Kas can correct me on this if I'm wrong, but I'm like 90% sure that roles listed in black can belong to any alignment. If they were confirmed to have an alignment, they would be listed in the color of that alignment.

The part I think you're missing here is that we might just be at LyLo. Supposing there's a Lieutenant, and the elims are aware of that, either through being in the doc or establishing PM contact or just blind guessing the distro. In that case, our split today is potentially 4/2/1 between villagers, elims, and lieutenant. (Unlikely to be a Fourth Bridge or other neutral in this world, I guess.) If the Lieutenant wins they exit the game, so this scenario is functionally a 4/2 split. An incorrect lynch puts us at 3/2 and an elim kill puts us at 2/2.

It makes quite a bit of sense for the elims not to lay low in this situation, because all they need is one mislynch. A villager claiming a guilty scan today would have to have actually scanned an elim, which only happens some of the time. But an elim claims a guilty scan 100% of the time today, if they think it'll give them a relatively easy misyeet.

I stand by the most likely explanation here being that RBM is lying. It's trying to shoehorn a specific bandwagon at what might well be LyLo, it's timing in the day looks like an attempt to disrupt existing bandwagons that the elims didn't like, and RBM initially tried to make it look like some other secret person was actually on the hook for the scan's truthfulness and not him. I don't think it's a very credible claim, and every post RBM makes where he isn't saying it's a reaction test is making it less likely that I'd believe him if he suddenly pulled a 180 and said it was one.

If there's a framer, I'm sorry.

(merge edit?) ...Actually wait no, I have an idea. I think there's a way we can go about resolving this with less risks:

If there's a framer, then they don't have any good role that they can safely claim. 

@everyone - It might be time to do a mass claim tbh.

In the framer world, this will probably help us a lot with catching them. I think that's well worth it. It would likely save us 2 misyeets and place a lot of pressure on the elims, which is probably the difference between losing and having a real fighting chance.

And in the non-framer world, it's probably LyLo already, and you can't take your secrets with you beyond the grave >:P Might as well work with as much information as possible today instead of just sitting on our hands.

Either way, seems like maybe it's in our best interests to just get it over with. I aint gonna force anyone though, obviously.

[Kasimir he/him]

7 hours ago, CadCom said:

Should have asked a few clarifying questions earlier since now I might not get answers. but @Kasimir can a role listed as black and bold technically be either alignment?

And the more important clarifying question(not really): what are the NAs that need to get to sleep tonight? (Or potentially last night)(I just didn't recognize the abbreviation)

1. Black and bold is any non-neutral alignment. Basically either V/E.

2. NAs—North Americans. I'm aware of where my timezone intersects theirs so basically it was "if y'all don't do it now you probably won't get a chance because my being able to check will be rare/odd intervals like rn."

[CadCom he/him]

1 hour ago, DrakeMarshall said:

The part I think you're missing here is that we might just be at LyLo. Supposing there's a Lieutenant, and the elims are aware of that, either through being in the doc or establishing PM contact or just blind guessing the distro. In that case, our split today is potentially 4/2/1 between villagers, elims, and lieutenant. (Unlikely to be a Fourth Bridge or other neutral in this world, I guess.) If the Lieutenant wins they exit the game, so this scenario is functionally a 4/2 split. An incorrect lynch puts us at 3/2 and an elim kill puts us at 2/2.

I agree we may be at Lylo. I'm hoping that the distro doesn't put us there but it most certainly could. 

I'm not opposed to a mass claim. Depending on how others feel, I may claim later this cycle. For now I'm gonna hike. (IRL

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Vote Tally
RoyalBeeMage (2): Ashbringer, DrakeMarshall
No Exe (1): Coffeecat
DrakeMarshall (1): RoyalBeeMage
Coffeecat (1): xinoehp512

...Just a reminder, if it is LyLo, then splitting the vote or declining to vote is likely not a great idea.

Vote however your conscience leads you but do so with all of the facts ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

(@The Unknown Order pinging you bc you haven't voted yet)

[RoyalBeeMage he/him]

1 minute ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Vote Tally
RoyalBeeMage (2): Ashbringer, DrakeMarshall
No Exe (1): Coffeecat
DrakeMarshall (1): RoyalBeeMage
Coffeecat (1): xinoehp512

...Just a reminder, if it is LyLo, then splitting the vote or declining to vote is likely not a great idea.

Vote however your conscience leads you but do so with all of the facts ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

(@The Unknown Order pinging you bc you haven't voted yet)

Sorry but what is lylo?

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Just now, RoyalBeeMage said:

Sorry but what is lylo?

It's when the village only barely still has majority, and needs to vote correctly or lose. It seems at least a real possibility that it's the situation we're in.

...I flatly refuse to derpclear you over a question like this given your claim, it's falsity, and it's timing, but if it's a legit question then hopefully that helps.

[The Unknown Order he/him]

15 minutes ago, RoyalBeeMage said:

Sorry but what is lylo?

C'mon now. I zero believe this. 

RoyalBeeMage

[Coffeecat she/her]

awh dont be so hard on the bee, haven't they asked for clarifications on certain acronyms before? either way it doesn't gain them anything.

I am currently thinking about something. I will update in a while, i do plan to vote soon

[RoyalBeeMage he/him]

10 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

It's when the village only barely still has majority, and needs to vote correctly or lose. It seems at least a real possibility that it's the situation we're in.

...I flatly refuse to derpclear you over a question like this given your claim, it's falsity, and it's timing, but if it's a legit question then hopefully that helps.

 

5 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

C'mon now. I zero believe this. 

RoyalBeeMage

What’s wrong with me just asking a question?

[The Unknown Order he/him]

1 minute ago, Coffeecat said:

awh dont be so hard on the bee, haven't they asked for clarifications on certain acronyms before? either way it doesn't gain them anything.

I am currently thinking about something. I will update in a while, i do plan to vote soon

 

1 minute ago, RoyalBeeMage said:

 

What’s wrong with me just asking a question?

How many games is Bee at now? Lylo is a really common term, I would think RBM has asked this in the several games they've played already, if not seeing me myself reference it pretty clearly in the several elim games we've played together.

[RoyalBeeMage he/him]

8 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

 

How many games is Bee at now? Lylo is a really common term, I would think RBM has asked this in the several games they've played already, if not seeing me myself reference it pretty clearly in the several elim games we've played together.

Never before now has lylo actually been close to applying to me. I’m fairly sure that this is my second village game. Not counting the rekoners one

[Ashbringer he/him]

Probably doesn’t help that half of us call it Exelo (or maybe that’s just me).

[RoyalBeeMage he/him]

2 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Probably doesn’t help that half of us call it Exelo (or maybe that’s just me).

You all really should compile all of your acronyms and phrases for convenience 

[Ashbringer he/him]

4 minutes ago, RoyalBeeMage said:

You all really should compile all of your acronyms and phrases for convenience 

This... actually doesn't have lylo/exelo on there but it does have most other ones used!

[CadCom he/him]

I want it known that I disagree firmly with the lynch in RBM. Unfortunately I don't have an alternate suggestion right now. I'm going to reread it all now see where I feel peoples alignments truly are. 

 

 

[Coffeecat she/her]

Well i'm going to come out and say it. I am in a lieutenant group with drake. I think its late enough that the evil can't do much with this info. While Drake's general vibe up to this moment made me read them as villager, their trying to figure out the distro and other things, this is not really Faction indicative. Also I have suspected Drake of being evil because no one in this liutenant doc has been targeted by anyone except for xino or TUO, which makes me see them in a more villagery way. Xino is aggressive but not necessarily evil. this seems to me like the evil team keeping us alive to get the lieutenant out of the game.

Now Bee's claim and drake's almost over-reaction to it makes me a bit more suspicious.

So i see it this way. We are going to exe someone today. If we exe bee, we also loose the liutenant. while if we kill Drake we are keeping the lieutenant as a confirmed good role. I think i want drake to confirm who the lieutenant is with the rest of you, if you are a villager this is convenient to you i believe. Either way we will only be loosing one person today, not only that but we get some really important info from their flip. if they are good it would cast RBM in a negative light, etc.

So, Drake, what do you say to this? why do you want the Lieutenant to win so much? they have even said this in the doc. as villagers, we do not want the lieutenant to win!

[CadCom he/him]

9 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

I am in a lieutenant group with drake.

You don't have to share who, but do y'all know which one is the lieutenant? Of course you don't have to share that either but a yes or no would be nice. 

[Coffeecat she/her]

We do know, not 100% certain of course but they have claimed and I have seen no reason to doubt them. 

Also I do think it's better if I say who they are, but I'm not sure? If Drake is evil then not saying anything is just keeping info from the village. And even if Drake is good, there isn't much the evil team can do, except try to not get me or Drake killed today

[Kasimir he/him]

Current vote update courtesy of Tallybot:

Quote

RoyalBeeMage (3): Ashbringer, DrakeMarshall, The Unknown Order
DrakeMarshall (2): Coffeecat, RoyalBeeMage
Coffeecat (1): xinoehp512

 

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

2 hours ago, Coffeecat said:

Well i'm going to come out and say it. I am in a lieutenant group with drake. I think its late enough that the evil can't do much with this info. While Drake's general vibe up to this moment made me read them as villager, their trying to figure out the distro and other things, this is not really Faction indicative. Also I have suspected Drake of being evil because no one in this liutenant doc has been targeted by anyone except for xino or TUO, which makes me see them in a more villagery way. Xino is aggressive but not necessarily evil. this seems to me like the evil team keeping us alive to get the lieutenant out of the game.

yes, I can confirm that this is true, we are both part of the Lieutenant's doc

why are all the members of the Lieutenant's doc still alive? well, there's 3 options here that I can figure:

1. A member of the Lieutenant doc is an elim.

2. The elims got in contact with the Lieutenant via PMs.

3. The elims just... Didn't hit one of us. I'd argue that this is in fact the most intuitive option - they've only made 1 kill so far, and most players aren't in the doc.

2 hours ago, Coffeecat said:

Now Bee's claim and drake's almost over-reaction to it makes me a bit more suspicious.

I don't see how it's an overreaction though? It feels like too many people are underreacting we have a lot more to go on right now, and the votes haven't been that much more lively than they were yesterday.

RBM has made a pretty clear-cut fake claim and is gunning for a mislynch at what might be LyLo. I think pushing and voting for RBM is an eminently suitable reaction to that >:P

You can posit framer shenanigans, but those are just inherently a lot less likely than other explanations. We don't even know if there's a framer (...if we got more claims we could resolve this, but I'm suspecting it may be too late to do it today), and if there was they still only have a 1/7 chance of hitting RBM coincident with RBM getting redirected into scanning himself. Idk, I just don't think it makes sense to place your faith in those worlds more than the simpler worlds where RBM is just evil.

2 hours ago, Coffeecat said:

So i see it this way. We are going to exe someone today. If we exe bee, we also loose the liutenant. while if we kill Drake we are keeping the lieutenant as a confirmed good role.

That's true enough... but I don't believe it's actually the most important consideration here.

If we lynch a villager in the Lieutenant doc, the Lieutenant converts to village, so it's a break-even situation... but then there's a night turn, and the elims get a free kill. We are still wasting tempo and losing a villager, and in a game of this size that still matters a lot. This likely shouldn't be treated as a good or acceptable outcome.

On the other hand, if we lynch an elim, we actually gain on the elims and get closer to winning. We should obviously be aiming to do that

If you're sincere in thinking I'm an elim, then sure, but. you started this post talking about how I seemed village and then did a bunch of mechanical analysis about the lieutenant doc for why you should kill me anyway. And the mechanical analysis simply doesn't outweigh any very substantial credences for who is good and who is evil.

2 hours ago, Coffeecat said:

I think i want drake to confirm who the lieutenant is with the rest of you, if you are a villager this is convenient to you i believe.

Why though tbh? What does this actually accomplish for the village, or what will anyone do with the information? What good does it do for me to out the Lieutenant as opposed to you?

I don't get it.

I don't think I'm going to out the Lieutenant unless there's a reason to. The Lieutenant prefers to remain hidden. I know what it's like to play as a third party, and going out of my way to screw one over doesn't sit right with me.

Presumably, if the Lieutenant was leading in the votes, they could claim and we'd get all of the benefit. Claiming before that just paints a target on their back, which removes much of the advantage of having a confirmed villager or at least confirmed not-evil.

I really just don't get it.

3 hours ago, Coffeecat said:

So, Drake, what do you say to this?

Honestly, it's somewhat difficult for me to read all of the above as genuine reasoning in good faith.

• I don't think it's pro-village to reveal the Lieutenant doc members in the first place. If you're village, I still think our best-case scenario was always baiting the elims to kill one of us, not trying to lynch in the doc. One of those things has a much better mechanical outcome than the other.
• You're assuming that #1 is the only possibility here, which feels maybe informed, because I don't particularly think that #1 here is the most obvious explanation.
• You're voting alongside RBM who has a suspicious redscan claim at LyLo, but making an effort to distance yourself from RBM's reasoning. Circumstantially Not Great. Especially since your sudden 180 on reading me coincides pretty well with RBM leading in the votes.
• Tbh feels pretty gaslighty to tell me I'm over-reacting to the RBM claim.

I don't want to oversample off of only a single post, but it's hard not to a little. I'm not usually one to sus people who sus me but it really feels like the elim team is cooperating to get me out, and they planned to target a member of the Lieutenant doc so that Coffee could make a mech argument for it.

It seems like Coffee is a strong possibilty for RBM's teammate, although I think it could also maybe be Xino due to how the voting looked before RBM's claim. Regardless, RBM is almost certainly fake and is higher priority, so my vote stays put.

That's all.

[Coffeecat she/her]

 

1 hour ago, DrakeMarshall said:

I don't see how it's an overreaction though

I think overreaction is a bit strong, but the whole "HAHA, you dont fool me by asking what lylo is" was strange. although i cant understand it.

 

1 hour ago, DrakeMarshall said:

RBM has made a pretty clear-cut fake claim and is gunning for a mislynch at what might be LyLo.

Here is the thing, why would anyone but you be convinced about this claim being fake?

RBM claimed, and although the circumstances around the claim are weird, it doesn't mean that they can still be the research officer, who actually read you as evil. There was no reason either to try and get you lynched, they could have chosen xino or me, who are a bit more suspicious.

Like i said i dont think we can just entirely ignore RBM's claim here just because it had some weird framing.

2 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

On the other hand, if we lynch an elim, we actually gain on the elims and get closer to winning. We should obviously be aiming to do that

Which is why I want you lynched, at this point i am more leaning on you being evil than RBM.

 

2 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

If you're sincere in thinking I'm an elim, then sure, but. you started this post talking about how I seemed village and then did a bunch of mechanical analysis about the lieutenant doc for why you should kill me anyway. And the mechanical analysis simply doesn't outweigh any very substantial credences for who is good and who is evil.

I do think you are evil, all I said is that at the beginning i was gut reading you as village because of your reads, which isn't at the end of the day faction indicative.

2 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Why though tbh? What does this actually accomplish for the village, or what will anyone do with the information? What good does it do for me to out the Lieutenant as opposed to you?

Mostly so that people don't think that I am lying about the lieutenant if you die. Not really essential, which is why i am also ok with just not saying the name until tomorrow.

 

2 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

I don't think it's pro-village to reveal the Lieutenant doc members in the first place. If you're village, I still think our best-case scenario was always baiting the elims to kill one of us, not trying to lynch in the doc.

It is impossible at this point to get a an elim to kill us before the Lieutenant wincon, so this is not true.

2 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

You're assuming that #1 is the only possibility here

Nope, I am just suspicious of you, #1 just happens to be a bit of further justification for it.

2 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

You're voting alongside RBM who has a suspicious redscan claim at LyLo, but making an effort to distance yourself from RBM's reasoning. Circumstantially Not Great. Especially since your sudden 180 on reading me coincides pretty well with RBM leading in the votes.

I know this has not much credence, but how does this help me as an elim? if i was in a team with RBM i would have told them not to target *you.* If i am evil i want you alive. it would have been much easier to get RBM to claim to have seen xino as evil, then tada, I get rid of the Lieutenant and xino.

Again, maybe it was just a mistake on me and RBM's part, but I do think you should consider that this isn't really helpful for me if I am evil.

 

Also sorry I said you were overreacting, Im not trying to gaslight you(or am I?) I just thought your response of "bee can not be correct mechanically there is no world in which they saw me as evil, unless we think of weird coincidences" was not correct. 

[RoyalBeeMage he/him]

7 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

This... actually doesn't have lylo/exelo on there but it does have most other ones used!

Thank you for that. I had seen it before but many of the acronyms were missing