LG 102: Day 1 - We Cannot Get Out

[Araris Valerian he/him]

The novelty of exploring the House was wearing off, and the various explorers wandered back through the winding hallways to the foyer. The first to return was Junior Junior, and he froze at the sight awaiting him. The unnamed butler lay on his back, a gaping hole revealing only emptiness where his heart had once been. Trails of blood led from the corpse to the walls, where they seemed to merge with the red-patterned wallpaper.

Junior Junior shook off the horror of the room as best he could, and dashed to the foyer's entrance. But instead of the grand doorway he'd come through at the start of the night, there was just another wall, built of the same sturdy wood and stone construction that formed the rest of the House. And hanging right in the center at eye level was a portrait of the butler as he'd appeared several hours ago.

The others trickled in over the next few minutes, until all nine stood around the body, muttering amongst themselves. Junior turned to face them.

"One of you killed him. You must have, while the rest of us were exploring. And..." He gestured at the portrait hanging where the door had once been.

"We cannot get out!"

---

Day 1 has begun, and will end at 11 PM Eastern Time on Monday September 16.

There will be an execution today!

Player List:

Spoiler

1. @The Unknown Order as Keisser, a tardy veteran
2. @Coffeecat as Coffee Cat, an insomniac feline
3. @Aeoryi as Aero Yee, a spook shooter
4. @Lego Mistborn as The Nameless Recluse
5. @Elandera as Leander, a paranormal investigator
6. @Lord Spirit as Kirc, a clueless drunk
7. @Sart as Father Rhinehardt, an ageless priest
8. @Kasimir as Kanem, who's tired
9. @Aeternum as Aven, who's quiet
10. @Just a Silvereye as Junior Junior, the local grump

 

[Kasimir he/him]

Sigh seriously? K not gonna RP because I'm short on time.

We need to know what map we're in on. As I RPed, I just RNGed for everything and called it a day because no time. I think in general regardless of which mapgen happened, it doesn't matter wrt Day 1 handling. Everyone, please remember to explore at Night, because we want to find clues and understand the mapgen. @Araris Valerian, what does an explore order look like? Must we pick a location?

Aeo

Have eye on Aet as well, but understand Aet busy so Aeo it is.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Just submit that you are exploring. You can add flavor to the order if you wish.

[Aeoryi she/her]

Kas, your choice of exploration is suspicious

(That's really all I have to say)

[The Unknown Order he/him]

When Keisser returned from the basement, he seemed to have aged ten years. A scraggly beard had sprouted. It was discolored by the same dried blood that flaked the rest of his body. He smiled, the teeth that weren't missing were stained yellow.

"Who would like to die today?"

[Elandera she/her]

Leander rubbed her eyes, clearing the sleep away. How had she fallen asleep? She looked around at her unfamiliar surroundings and realized she was on a four-poster bed. One she remembered seeing while exploring the upper floor. It had looked so inviting. Pristine compared to how she'd expected the old destroyed-yet-miraculously-returned mansion to be.

She brushed herself of and rushed to meet the others, frustrated that she'd missed an entire night of exploring because of a nap.

She'd been so excited, though. Vibrating with anticipation. She hadn't been even close to tired, yet she'd just... passed out?

The house was certainly playing tricks. 

When she found the others standing over the body of the butler, she gasped. Sure, most of it was surprise at finding the body, but there was a hint of something else. Intrigue. A real investigation along with her paranormal one. How exciting...

Right. Body. Actual dead person.

She looked around. Those others she'd arrived with were a strange bunch. One looked... older? Odd. Even more odd was the dried blood.

"Who would like to die today?"

"Uh, no one? I think?" She gestured to the flaking blood, taking a cautious step back. "That's some interesting... makeup? What... what happened?"

[Sart he/him]

1 hour ago, The Unknown Order said:

When Keisser returned from the basement, he seemed to have aged ten years. A scraggly beard had sprouted. It was discolored by the same dried blood that flaked the rest of his body. He smiled, the teeth that weren't missing were stained yellow.

"Who would like to die today?"

"Snap out of it man!" This was clearly the work of some forgotten devil. The Unknown Order "We must not devolve into savagery!"

[Lego Mistborn he/him]

The recluse muttered "it was keisser. Now leave me alone, I know what you want, stay away"

[Aeternum they/them, he/him]

I'm probably not going to RP much because I don't really have time to dedicate to this game. Fair warning that I skimmed the rules only once as well, and I'm confused on the whole people get picked from x place thing (did I read correctly that elims/+ are picked after n0?).

Kas having people to push already is weird and I don't understand where it's coming from. Why Aeo?

[Aeoryi she/her]

Kasimir

[The Unknown Order he/him]

Hey! I asked who wants to die, I didn't say I want to die.

And I'm tapped out for roleplay.

Not sure about the instant double up, but I'll forgive it cause Lego seems to be going low effort.

[Coffeecat she/her]

I'm gonna be honest I have no idea what is happening yet. 

I know voting someone out is a good idea but... How do we choose? 

I'm in agreement with Aet, why is Kas already pushing someone? Why those specifically.

 

TUO was just RPing, I don't see why Aeo and Lego immediately jumped on them together?? 

 

Anyways sorry I missed the first night ;-;

[The Unknown Order he/him]

3 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

I'm gonna be honest I have no idea what is happening yet. 

I know voting someone out is a good idea but... How do we choose? 

I'm in agreement with Aet, why is Kas already pushing someone? Why those specifically.

 

TUO was just RPing, I don't see why Aeo and Lego immediately jumped on them together?? 

 

Anyways sorry I missed the first night ;-;

If people truthfully claimed where they explored, there are some people who are more likely to be e! Than others. Namely those who explored the Basement. I don’t really expect people to be entirely truthful on this front (I'm certainly not), but it’s a reasonable method. 

[Aeoryi she/her]

I know what Kas did. You cannot hide. There is only one option.

[Aeternum they/them, he/him]

1 hour ago, Coffeecat said:

I'm gonna be honest I have no idea what is happening yet. 

I know voting someone out is a good idea but... How do we choose? 

I'm in agreement with Aet, why is Kas already pushing someone? Why those specifically.

 

TUO was just RPing, I don't see why Aeo and Lego immediately jumped on them together?? 

 

Anyways sorry I missed the first night ;-;

Whoohoo day 1 voting, let's CFD someone at EoD!

Kasimir

I explored ground level btw.

[Lego Mistborn he/him]

1 hour ago, The Unknown Order said:

If people truthfully claimed where they explored, there are some people who are more likely to be e! Than others. Namely those who explored the Basement. I don’t really expect people to be entirely truthful on this front (I'm certainly not), but it’s a reasonable method. 

Do we know what the haunt is already? I thought we had to find out with the clues. 

2 hours ago, The Unknown Order said:

Hey! I asked who wants to die, I didn't say I want to die.

And I'm tapped out for roleplay.

Not sure about the instant double up, but I'll forgive it cause Lego seems to be going low effort.

Yeah, I felt it necessary to vote someone and you're to made you an easy target. I think I'll change my vote to a pass no vote though.

"Leave me out of this" muttered the recluse, as he tried to push back further into the corner

P.S. can we get clarification on ties? It seems sometimes rulesets nobody dies and sometimes everyone dies, and I didn't notice anything explaining that.

Edited Monday at 03:20 AM by Lego Mistborn

[Araris Valerian he/him]

7 minutes ago, Lego Mistborn said:

I think I'll change my vote to a pass though.

This will count as no vote.

8 minutes ago, Lego Mistborn said:

P.S. can we get clarification on ties? It seems sometimes nobody dies and sometimes everyone dies, and I didn't notice anything explaining that.

Ties result in a random tied player getting executed.

[Lego Mistborn he/him]

11 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

This will count as no vote.

19 minutes ago, Lego Mistborn said:

Sorry, that is what I meant by pass.

11 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Ties result in a random tied player getting executed.

Thank you.

[Kasimir he/him]

3 hours ago, The Unknown Order said:

If people truthfully claimed where they explored, there are some people who are more likely to be e! Than others. Namely those who explored the Basement. I don’t really expect people to be entirely truthful on this front (I'm certainly not), but it’s a reasonable method. 

If we don't know the mapgen, how are you confident making this claim? Fishy.

3 hours ago, Coffeecat said:

I'm in agreement with Aet, why is Kas already pushing someone? Why those specifically.

I am busy with seven presentations and conferences, with one hitting me in a few hours. If I'm first in thread posting, something is wrong with the game tempo. I saw Aet and Aeo viewing earlier yesterday when the new cycle had gone up but had no time to type up a post then—I'm pushing them because I feel V!them should probably be more ready to get active and I distrust their lack of WiM. I think it's weird I beat them to the punch. I'm giving Aet some grace because he mentioned being busy enough to initially want to PH.

EDIT: Possible slip from TUN. Pretty sure Elim pool based on exploration depends on mapgen, e.g. gen3 pulls from upstairs players. Don't really believe we're in a world where we know what mapgen it is without exploration though massclaims could be nice. YMMV due to role distros.

Edited Monday at 04:57 AM by Kasimir

[The Unknown Order he/him]

5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

we don't know the mapgen, how are you confident making this claim? Fishy.

...

There is a ⅓ chance (give or take) that we're in a standard SE game. That standard SE game has the most elims. The elims in a standard SE game are weighted towards Basement explorers. Therefore, people who explored the basement are more likely to be Elim than anyone else.

By similar logic, people who explored the ground floor are least likely to be elims.

It's far from certain in all cases, but statistically relevant.

[Aeoryi she/her]

I normally operate when there is sufficient information in thread (very mysterious oooooo). 

TKN is right on some things: 

- People who explored the basement are more likely to be Elim than people who did not in the standard Elim game. This is not enough justification for executing someone, though.

- The standard Elim game has the highest number of elims.

From these two points, we can extrapolate to:

- The Elims have TMI about what type of game this is; if there are 2 Elims, they know it is a standard game. If there is one, they know it is a Kandra thingy game (I think?). Keep watching for that.

- It is unlikely that the game is exactly what we think it is. Knowing that TKN stayed ground floor, and at least more than a single person visited the basement, it would be unwise to assume only one Elim. However, the correct way to continue with this day is to go on as if the game is Standard Elim. This works 66% of the time. # statistic

 

Kinda curious where everyone went If you read this, please claim which area you explored. If you are village, you should have no problem claiming. Thanks in advance.

[Aeternum they/them, he/him]

My version of less active and busy is more like "really should be doing stuff but instead is spending 10 hours a day playing mafia anyway" tbf.

I've noticed I'm often one of the first people reading new topics posted because I lurk so much, but rarely the first person to post (I always think I'll do something wrong if I post first for some reason lol, so I usually look at thread and leave). Has applied to a couple games now.

I have been trying to slow myself down in SE games because I'm usually very active and hyper, but a lot of people play at a calmer pace here and I think I overwhelm people sometimes with the playstyle I've picked up on MU.

Would you expect this of other people in this game, or is it more specific to us two?

And fwiw, I don't think it is something you should read people off of at all, in terms of looking at when people are online. Feels really angleshoot-y.

Kasimir

(Good luck with your presentations btw!)

Probs not a slip from TUO, or at least a very good explanation cover.

Edit:

Like I said earlier, I explored ground floor.

Edited Monday at 07:08 AM by Aeternum

[Kasimir he/him]

8 hours ago, The Unknown Order said:

There is a ⅓ chance (give or take) that we're in a standard SE game. That standard SE game has the most elims. The elims in a standard SE game are weighted towards Basement explorers. Therefore, people who explored the basement are more likely to be Elim than anyone else.

With the base probability being 20%, the most extreme situation has a 60-20-20 split which is 3/5. Curious where your confidence of convergence or lack thereof emerges from. Using epistemic probability here is a model of our ignorance, not the situation, and is akin to knowing a die is loaded and insisting the probability the loaded die will give a particular number is 1/6 because our ignorance is the measure of the die.

Quote

After the scenario is selected, the elims/Kandra/Gun are handed out per the specific scenario. For each choice, a coin flip determines whether the player is selected from the Floor Exploration pool, or from the entire player pool. For example, if only Araris explores the Ground Floor during N0 and Scenario 2 is selected, there is a 50% chance Araris receives the Smoking Gun, and a 50% chance that anyone gets it (Araris could also get it from this roll).

It's also not a raw weightage - it's a conditional probability. You are dishonestly concealing the fact it's conditional on the original probability distribution which is not independent of the basement player pool, and that you're not baking in the 1/2 chance either. When you add up all the conditional probabilities, I'll be surprised if you get something substantive, but go off.

6 hours ago, Aeternum said:

Would you expect this of other people in this game, or is it more specific to us two?

It is specific to the two of you because Elan hasn't been active in her recent games, Sart (not highly active most games with the QF being a notable outlier) and TUN (more OTOT) are not that sort of player, and I don't have profiles of most of the others. If Drake or Aman were playing, I'd probably draw conclusions of them. I don't have a strong activity view of Coffee, and neither did I see any of the other players all mentioned in the thread at the same time as I was. 

6 hours ago, Aeternum said:

And fwiw, I don't think it is something you should read people off of at all, in terms of looking at when people are online. Feels really angleshoot-y.

I don't 'look at when people are online.' I read the thread and saw both of you there. I checked back subsequently when ready to give the game some mental energy, expecting to crunch posts and saw nothing, and then decided this was weird based off memory of your proactive Village styles. Calling this angleshooting IMO dilutes the notion of angleshooting because I did not go to each of your profiles and log your activity times. I take this to be substantively similar to someone who essentially goes 'huh, X has been lurking in the thread all day, why don't you say something' and votes. My mental path was more 'huh you lurked and vanished and normally I remember you both are keen to get into the thick of it, it shouldn't have come down to the guy with a single brain cell left from everything.' If meta votes are going to be considered angleshooting, then I'll just shrug and say it's more reason I don't play on MU.

Still not comfortable with Aeo's thread opener, and feel TUN is being disingenuous in a way that feels opportunistic. I have my eye on Sart as well - he's not doing a thing E!him tends to do, but it's early yet. I acknowledge that TUN and Sart probably aren't teamed because Sart doesn't do distancing that way but I'll work it out some other time when I have mental energy. 

Lego voting and backing off also interesting. @Lego Mistborn, what's your thought process here? Have you played these before? (I don't think I can get back in the morning before rollover so I'm just gonna say it did feel a bit opportunistic then a sudden "ah damn I shouldn't." I'd probably be less willing to squint at this in a player I have a baseline for.)

I'm /shrug on Aet, and think Aet's explanation is reasonable.

Anyone who has not shown up deserves the ghost of Araris's grouch shaking his fist at them on the porch of this piece of damned real estate.

6 hours ago, Aeternum said:

(Good luck with your presentations btw!)

Ty, one down, more suffering to come. Idgaf about votes on me because I have a two day conference coming up after tomorrow so don't expect to have mental energy for whatever that cycle will be.

[The Unknown Order he/him]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

With the base probability being 20%, the most extreme situation has a 60-20-20 split which is 3/5. Curious where your confidence of convergence or lack thereof emerges from. Using epistemic probability here is a model of our ignorance, not the situation, and is akin to knowing a die is loaded and insisting the probability the loaded die will give a particular number is 1/6 because our ignorance is the measure of the die.

It's also not a raw weightage - it's a conditional probability. You are dishonestly concealing the fact it's conditional on the original probability distribution which is not independent of the basement player pool, and that you're not baking in the 1/2 chance either. When you add up all the conditional probabilities, I'll be surprised if you get something substantive, but go off.

It is specific to the two of you because Elan hasn't been active in her recent games, Sart (not highly active most games with the QF being a notable outlier) and TUN (more OTOT) are not that sort of player, and I don't have profiles of most of the others. If Drake or Aman were playing, I'd probably draw conclusions of them. I don't have a strong activity view of Coffee, and neither did I see any of the other players all mentioned in the thread at the same time as I was. 

I don't 'look at when people are online.' I read the thread and saw both of you there. I checked back subsequently when ready to give the game some mental energy, expecting to crunch posts and saw nothing, and then decided this was weird based off memory of your proactive Village styles. Calling this angleshooting IMO dilutes the notion of angleshooting because I did not go to each of your profiles and log your activity times. I take this to be substantively similar to someone who essentially goes 'huh, X has been lurking in the thread all day, why don't you say something' and votes. My mental path was more 'huh you lurked and vanished and normally I remember you both are keen to get into the thick of it, it shouldn't have come down to the guy with a single brain cell left from everything.' If meta votes are going to be considered angleshooting, then I'll just shrug and say it's more reason I don't play on MU.

Still not comfortable with Aeo's thread opener, and feel TUN is being disingenuous in a way that feels opportunistic. I have my eye on Sart as well - he's not doing a thing E!him tends to do, but it's early yet. I acknowledge that TUN and Sart probably aren't teamed because Sart doesn't do distancing that way but I'll work it out some other time when I have mental energy. 

Lego voting and backing off also interesting. @Lego Mistborn, what's your thought process here? Have you played these before? (I don't think I can get back in the morning before rollover so I'm just gonna say it did feel a bit opportunistic then a sudden "ah damn I shouldn't." I'd probably be less willing to squint at this in a player I have a baseline for.)

I'm /shrug on Aet, and think Aet's explanation is reasonable.

Anyone who has not shown up deserves the ghost of Araris's grouch shaking his fist at them on the porch of this piece of damned real estate.

Ty, one down, more suffering to come. Idgaf about votes on me because I have a two day conference coming up after tomorrow so don't expect to have mental energy for whatever that cycle will be.

I think it's important to recall the context where I first mentioned this. I wasn't (and am not) extolling it. I put it forward as a method that certain people (I was referencing you cause I wasn't sure on your logic for voting Aeo, I figured it was along those lines) might use. I don’t know how it's supposed to be opportunistic when I'm not using the opportunities that viewpoint would give me.

[Lord Spirit he/him]

This is more complicated than I thought... (first time playing)

I explored upstairs and didn't find anything. 

I guess I'll vote Keissier, as asking who wants to die is weird, although it's also not really something a guilty person would say.

I'm open to advice or help.