LG 102: Day 2 - Lost in the Night

[Araris Valerian he/him]

56 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

@Araris Valerian Who are on inactivity death row? 

Currently there is no filter for this game, though I think everyone has posted recently.

[Aeoryi she/her]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

You never left the bleh space. All your posts felt like blatantly lukewarm things that an Elim would say. I saw zero interest in solving. The other issue is that if I assume at least one Elim voted D1, your vote is in the place for it, with Aet just coming across as more Village than you, and it matches your sidetrain patterns.

Tbh I've been recently enjoying being more of an endgame player (not on MU lol but still) and if you look at the past few games I haven't really... Lived for a while

Spoiler

MR74 - CoGM

LG101 - Died n1

MR73 - One Cycle length

QF71 - Died c2

I'd just thought I'd try to, you know, last more than 2 cycles here

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Cool, then we disagree about gamesolving approach. It's wonderful that SE allows for more approaches than just MU consensus!

I'm not just talking MU, I'm talking DM, HPM, MS, mts, etc. 9v2 is kinda considered a sort of standard ratio but I haven't really been knee-deep in SE for a while so I could be just site-metaing incorrectly

I mean, do you honestly think there's 3 Elims? I'll check the ruleset (I intend to do a full ruleset analysis for my own sake); but in generalities I think 2 Elims. You're welcome to disagree, of course, but I'd definitely like you to justify why you think 3 elims

Quote

I expect Elims to be less interested in scenario solving and more likely to forget because it just doesn't carry the same weight for them as it does for us.

- Kasimir

@Kasimir why so? I personally think it's the opposite seeing as solving scenarios is a great deterrent for solving the game (i.e, players/votes/NK)

But then again, I see what you mean by it's important to have a balance of both, but I don't think weighing them disproportionately is Elim like behavior. All it is indicative of is a player's interest in the respective parts of the game; if someone isn't interested in reading the syllabus, they're naturally not going to be invested in that part of the game. Obviously, I have some more thoughts on disproportionately weighing the solving players part of the game, but I'll save them so you can cook up your own thoughts.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Some new players do just push people D1. Thinking of Bookwyrm, Cinnamon, and a whole lot of people in that game. But comfort with that also precludes evidence talk.

What do you think is the difference between a new Elim/new villager? (Genuinely curious; new players are really a big blind spot for me)

[Aeoryi she/her]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

bluntly put, I did not sign up for a MU game and this is the third time I'm being told by players this isn't how it's done on the basis of MU meta

Also just one thing: This isn't an MU thing. This isn't MU meta. This is a standard balancing practice that's sort of followed everywhere.

I've seen this type of thing on the following sites (that play FM)

Spoiler

Discord Mafia

FlopTurnRiver

GGC

Game Circle (I think)

Hypixel

Mafiascum

Mafia the Syndicate 

Mafia universe

Wintreath

+ More I could probably name 

I mean I get it Kas, I hate MU too (I could explain in a PM to you later, in aftermath). I understand that MU and SE are not very connected. But that's not to say that something I learned relating to extremely general, universal mechanics is useless here, because that's not true. Yes, MU and SE operate VERY very differently, but there is some overlap.

I'll probably go like, reread LG92 or like Ashbringer's Honorblade LG (both of which are a big inspiration to me ftr) to get my mind back in tune with SE, but I still think that the 9v2 ratio is at least partially applicable here. 

But once again, I invite you to tell me what you think a potential distro that Araris would run that has 3 Elims in it; after all, you know him way better than I do. I'm also going to apologize for being so dismissive towards you earlier because I think I'm just treating you unfairly and it isn't helping anyone. Also, this 3 Elim thing has been dragged along way too long anyways, so I will understand if you don't respond. It's not too important anyways, it's just some arbitrary numbers that probably don't matter until later on.

Let's talk about something more relevant than trying to passive-aggressively disprove each other

how about:

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Unsure whether Aeo gets credit for just saying she CBF or not

Could you refresh me on what CBF stands for? 

Spoiler

I'm assuming it isn't Click-between-frames

 

 

1 hour ago, Aeternum said:

Unless you can explain to me why there would be 3 elims in a 10 player game, and how that is balanced, I don't think it's ideal to try to hunt for 3 elims.

Running numbers, 3 elims is 7 v 3 -> 5 v 3 immediately endgame on an incorrect vote and NK. Not balanced at all, barring perhaps some insanely strong town PRs and protection etc. It's just really not a viable possibility here, imo.

Aeo seems fine right now, it feels like you're sort of overreacting to her if I'm being honest. More concerned about how fast people followed me to an Elandera wagon.

This to me says that Aet is town. Going the extra distance to calculate MLs kinda seems natural here, and in the event that this is the 2-3 Elim scenario, this is a TMI-free response.

2 hours ago, Elandera said:

Exploration is almost solely so we can figure out the scenario, which in the case of S1 or S3, it benefits the elim(s) to have that information take longer to release.

How does one explore again? Just say "Explore ground floor" or similar? 

(That's what I was trying to figure out at the end of N1)

14 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Sart being killed in S1 feels like a textbook shot in some ways. In S3, I instinctively feel he picks a sideways shot, but I’m not the best at understanding how he thinks.

Tbh Sart could totally be the hopping Elim 

Do you think we can eliminate the S2 FFA from the list?

I haven't played (or even read) an FFA here at all so I'm wondering if you have any tips or tricks for figuring out if it's an FFA 

3 hours ago, Elandera said:

Well this is concerning. These two items are not found in the same scenario, so one of these two are lying. Bold move for D2.

EDIT:

Sorry, I reread the rules. There's a 33% chance that we can get a clue from the wrong scenario.

Still could be the first case, although I'm unsure if/how you would even find what to fake as your result in the first place (It's probably in the syllabus and I'm going to look like a fool but whatever)

1 hour ago, Coffeecat said:

Heyooo, I explored and found a gemstone filled with void light. I'm leaning 3rd scenario.

Does this mean we have to look for anyone who suddenly changes tactics? I really don't know how else to find a kandra who was a normal player for most of the game

Would this mean that sart is now living in a kandra doc? Hello sart!! 

I think the main indicator of body hopping is simply "An Elim suspect dies at the end of each night." In the other two scenarios (FFA, Multi-elims) the killers are always going to target the most powerful voices in the thread, so pay attention to that.

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I kind of feel it's weird to have Aeo submit a kill over Elan which goes back to my view they don't work super well as a team. Probably a third member scenario but also, Aet's call for a pivot came late enough I'm unable to feel it was super indicative. @Aeternum anyone else you remember was on besides TUN?

@Kasimir a big thing I found in Araris' MR (Epic reckoners marking game) was that sometimes there isn't enough coordination in the Elim doc for you to get the other Elim(s) to submit the kill, so you have to do it yourself. <insert Simpsons meme here>

It's totally possible depending on who is Elim but it's just a slight curve ball to think about.

Idk I'm not set on Elan lynch today, maybe worth looking into {Coffee/Spirit/Lego} and try to have one louder voice alive by tomorrow and the cycle after.

@Araris Valerian (since this post is long) fwiw:

Elandera

[Lego Mistborn he/him]

3 hours ago, Aeoryi said:

Did Alignments distribute on N0 or was everyone a villager

Couldn't have, they had to happen after everyone explored.

[Elandera she/her]

1 hour ago, Aeoryi said:

How does one explore again? Just say "Explore ground floor" or similar? 

You can just say you want to explore. You don't have to specify where anymore, but you can for flavor/RP. Otherwise we're just looking kind of everywhere for the clues.

[Lego Mistborn he/him]

Kinda sus that Aeo didn't have that down. It was explained by someone, or so I thought.

[Aeternum they/them]

Aeo might've just towntold by asking about when alignments were distributed, unless she picked up on me having asked that at some point.

Shrugs. Elandera is ok right now, as in my standards for town are really low and she's sort of clearing it.

Kas is just town.

Lord Spirit seems ok.

Just a Silvereye, Coffeecat, and Lego Mistborn looking real yeetable right now. If anyone's interested.

[Kasimir he/him]

Coffee

No time to catch up on anything but let's try this.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

To head off further discussion on this topic, since it wasn't really supposed to be a secret, any scenario 1 game with 8-10 players would have 2 elims, since that needs to be predetermined before I assign village roles for that scenario. I didn't specify that in the rules because in theory there could be more players, but that was always the intention with this ruleset. Apologies to anyone that not knowing this has affected.

[Kasimir he/him]

 Got ninjaed so c/ping and continuing. Priority focus read:

6 hours ago, Aeternum said:

Aeo might've just towntold by asking about when alignments were distributed, unless she picked up on me having asked that at some point.

Fair enough, I'm willing to accept this.

10 hours ago, Aeoryi said:

@Kasimir a big thing I found in Araris' MR (Epic reckoners marking game) was that sometimes there isn't enough coordination in the Elim doc for you to get the other Elim(s) to submit the kill, so you have to do it yourself. <insert Simpsons meme here>

Don't think it's relevant here since it was mostly my trying to work through the odds of a you-Elan team given I RBed Elan. On further thought, I like Aet's argument.

10 hours ago, Aeoryi said:

I think the main indicator of body hopping is simply "An Elim suspect dies at the end of each night." In the other two scenarios (FFA, Multi-elims) the killers are always going to target the most powerful voices in the thread, so pay attention to that.

Depends on the OG Kandra's strategy IMO. OG Kandra can afford to play risky but would likely aim to appear Village, knowing they would die and need to be explainable as a kill. It's cheap to do those things because they affect no one and need not deal with the consequences the next day, and it doesn't hurt them in a RB/protect world significantly. They are less likely to be roleblocked as well if they look Villagery af. D1 especially, a lone Kandra has zero teammates to protect and can afford to let the Village screw things up. It's generally easier to hide in a low tempo D1 anyway because if the Village isn't doing anything much, there's just zero pressure. That being said, I don't consider Sart's D1 to be really kandra consistent due to his attracting controversy deliberately. But that's a weak point.

10 hours ago, Aeoryi said:

Still could be the first case, although I'm unsure if/how you would even find what to fake as your result in the first place (It's probably in the syllabus and I'm going to look like a fool but whatever)

All potential results are listed. I felt a little concerned at the timing of Coffee's result, given Coffee has had minimal thread input or exe input.

10 hours ago, Aeoryi said:

Do you think we can eliminate the S2 FFA from the list?

I haven't played (or even read) an FFA here at all so I'm wondering if you have any tips or tricks for figuring out if it's an FFA 

I'm eliminating it if only because I don't personally care to play a FFA game and it doesn't matter to me if I lose in S2 therefore.

Our problem with FFA in a nutshell is that in S2, the last two or fewer players standing win. In a way, it's better for the Elims/Kandra if we regard S2 as live/pertinent because then we are motivated to prioritise personal survival over Elim hunting. On the assumption Sart didn't shoot himself, 2/8 players currently know we're in S2 in an S2 world, so give it one more cycle and we might hit 3/6, which more or less means those players might be PMing each other to make alliances or what. Ehhhh. I've not played FFAs and have no motivation for it.

19 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

To head off further discussion on this topic, since it wasn't really supposed to be a secret, any scenario 1 game with 8-10 players would have 2 elims, since that needs to be predetermined before I assign village roles for that scenario. I didn't specify that in the rules because in theory there could be more players, but that was always the intention with this ruleset. Apologies to anyone that not knowing this has affected.

Cool, thanks. I'm guessing 1 of each role then rather than more. Don't suppose you'd care to give us those counts too?

12 hours ago, Aeternum said:

More concerned about how fast people followed me to an Elandera wagon.

All the more reason I don't want to vote her today.

10 hours ago, Aeoryi said:

What do you think is the difference between a new Elim/new villager? (Genuinely curious; new players are really a big blind spot for me)

The new is the confounding factor here in general and I can't answer this because I struggle with reading new players which is the root of my troubles with Spirit. But I guess that's a good question because that's the meat of my Spirit problems here. I don't feel it's useful to answer in the abstract so I'll draw it back to Spirit and to a lesser extent, Lego. I'm trying to figure out if both of them are being more quiet because they are struggling to solve (new Villager; lacks a mental model of how to play the game, so kind of just vibing and lost), or because they don't really have an interest and haven't needed to blend (new Elim; potentially can't simulate solving + low thread tempo means no real incentive to.)

Anyway.

-Re-reading D1, my memory of Spirit is wrong:

The evidence bit comes later:

I'm sort of willing to blink and see V!Spirit I guess? Maybe? Spirit does water the vote down by saying it's not really guilt-making, but asking for advice or help feels a bit like something Spirit maybe wouldn't do if Evil or doing a FNG play.

-Lego goes onto TUN and then hops off:

Changing to a no vote in orange is weird. I guess it does depend on what Lego's last game was, but 'pass' is also just strange and kind of makes me feel like it's not the sort of thing that shows up with a doc. Acknowledge this is weak as some players are just not very doc present. However, Lego's jumping back today just doesn't seem to come from the same player:

Ah soddit I need sleep.

No: <Aet, Aeo, Elan, Spirit>

I Guess? <Lego, Coffee, Silvereye>

I still don't know what bugs me about Silvereye's post today wrt the sudden Sart rejoinder. I guess I'll probably finalvote either Coffee or Silvereye.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

13 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Cool, thanks. I'm guessing 1 of each role then rather than more. Don't suppose you'd care to give us those counts too?

There is an 80% chance of each role existing (max 1 copy per), unless we are in scenario 1 and an elim got the gift, in which case all roles exist, but one is elim (this is in the rules).

[Lego Mistborn he/him]

29 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Changing to a no vote in orange is weird. I guess it does depend on what Lego's last game was, but 'pass' is also just strange

I promise, that's just new player stuff and not being used to the lingo and style guide of SE. And if I did change it to orange, it's because I'm red green colorblind and actually thought it was green.

 

And an edit: again, voting tuo was rp motivated. Even when I voted I knew logically that a real elim was unlikely to rp that, but I didn't want to let the opportunity pass.

Edited 4 hours ago by Lego Mistborn

[Lord Spirit he/him]

@Kasimir could you define some of the terms you're using? I'm not sure what V! or E! means.

[Elandera she/her]

1 hour ago, Lord Spirit said:

@Kasimir could you define some of the terms you're using? I'm not sure what V! or E! means.

V! = Hypothetical village; E! = Hypothetical elim