The War and Running out the Clock

[Master Silver]

So there is a three pronged attack that is going to take place. The enemy (Odium) may have meant for these to be surprise attacks, but the cat is out of the bag. Especially, if the plan was to sack Azir first and then use the reinforcements to go to Thaylen city and the shattered plans to quickly overwhelm the defenders, this is no longer going to occur. The siege of Kholinar took time. The battle of Thaylen fields also took time (although less time). If we are on day 2 and Odium's forces are still moving. It will likely be at least another two days before they can begin their attack. After arriving they will have to array their forces set up camp, etc. So, they will have less than a week to take some of the largest cities in the world. And they are all fortress cities that will have Radiants. Sending Stonewards, Elsecallers, and Edgedancers to each location further fortifies the cities. Even if you can't win any of the battles, you just have to hold for 5 days. I am just thinking of how long the sieges in 15th and 16th centuries sometimes took. 

Finally, there are also two wild card armies. Ishar's and the Listeners who seem to have dozens of Chasimfiends. 

 

How would you all defend against these attacks?

 

[alder24]

56 minutes ago, Master Silver said:

So there is a three pronged attack that is going to take place. The enemy (Odium) may have meant for these to be surprise attacks, but the cat is out of the bag. Especially, if the plan was to sack Azir first and then use the reinforcements to go to Thaylen city and the shattered plans to quickly overwhelm the defenders, this is no longer going to occur. The siege of Kholinar took time. The battle of Thaylen fields also took time (although less time). If we are on day 2 and Odium's forces are still moving. It will likely be at least another two days before they can begin their attack. After arriving they will have to array their forces set up camp, etc. So, they will have less than a week to take some of the largest cities in the world. And they are all fortress cities that will have Radiants. Sending Stonewards, Elsecallers, and Edgedancers to each location further fortifies the cities. Even if you can't win any of the battles, you just have to hold for 5 days. I am just thinking of how long the sieges in 15th and 16th centuries sometimes took. 

Finally, there are also two wild card armies. Ishar's and the Listeners who seem to have dozens of Chasimfiends. 

 

How would you all defend against these attacks?

Yeah, that's a really tough nut for Dalinar to crack. Odium created an excellent dilemma for the coalition and I don't see any good option for them to choose. I think it will be really hard for them to successfully defend on all three fronts, especially considering that one invasion force is made entirely out of 1000 Fused and 1 Thunderclast. Dalinar's main army is still in Emul, they might be able to get back on time to aid the defense of Azir, but this might be too tight. It's way more problematic to defend other fronts. No army on the Shattered Plain can defend against that many Fused and Dalinar don't even have that many Radiants to match their numbers and there are even more Fused in the other two armies. Dalinar has to spread his Radiants across 3 different fronts, which would put them in huge disadvantage. It’s possible  Dalinar might be forced to abandon one position, or at the very least he might run out of man to send. 

I think the easiest way to defend the Shattered Plains is to use the Listeners' tactic - evacuate to the Narak, fortify it, break bridges and fight for every plateau. Even 1000 Fused will struggle to get past such a defense in a few days, maybe it will be enough to prevent them from reaching the Oathgate if there are enough troops there. But this means abandoning the 10 camps around the plains - there is still a lot of free space in the Tower, but that’s a huge existential threat to the Alethi nation.

The Azish gate will be less problematic, thankfully the gate's platform was turned into a maze which would be much easier to defend. It will be a massive choke point. They just need to hold for long enough for the main coalition force to arrive from the won offensive in Emul. However we don't know how many troops are already present in the city, or in Urithiru. I don't think there are enough of them to mount a strong defense. It will be a desperate struggle for sure, but a relief army is already marching towards Azimir.

Thaylen City will probably be the hardest to defend. Their navy was defeated, but they need it again. They need to send a force of Windrunners escorting another navy to meet their enemy at the sea, far away from the island as that’s the only way to stop the siege from starting and thus relieve all those troops from this position and send them to the other two. If that's impossible, then the city will be under siege - again. This time it might be much harder to defend against it, considering that Dalinar's forces are spread out thin. But on the other hand Dalinar already defended the city with the total of 7 Radiants plus Adolin alone, so maybe it won't be that hard? 

Ishar is a wild card, but I don't think he can do anything about any army - his army is too far away and he himself is unlikely to join Dalinar. Listeners can and it's possible they might join to fight for their freedom, because if Alethi fall on the Shattered Plains, I highly doubt Odium will leave them alone. Who knows, maybe Leshwi will manage to convince more Fused to join them? 

But there is another wild cart you haven't mentioned - Honorspren naval power. Right now it's sadly anchored and collecting dust, but Notum wants to reactivate the fleet and fight for Shadesmar. It may be possible, if Odium forces will be slowed down while passing through the Oathgate, for Notum to arrive just on time to destroy the part of Odium's army that wasn't able to pass through, effectively winning this battle.

Navani needs to start working on creating anti-Odium tone metal plates and anti-Voidlight - good thing she doesn’t need to sleep now. They have a few Raysium daggers, at least one, so they can't rely on them too much, but RoW showed us that just playing anti-Odium tone can paralyze Fused. That's a weapon to be used. But Odium can do the same and he has much more Raysium to spare and give to his troops. Radiants and Spren will die. However it's hard to say if any of this army even has a capability of creating anti-Stormlight. The Shadesmar army was sent before this discovery was even made so they might not have the equipment needed for this and would have to rely on air deliveries. The Fused and naval army were sent already so it's also hard to say if they have anti-Stormlight or means to create it. I doubt the Fused army has the equipment with them (because they rely on speed, they probably won't be resting too much to arrive on time), they probably have a limited amount of anti-Stormlight. So this all might mean that while all armies might have Raysium, they might also have a very limited amount of anti-light, or none at all. We shall see.

This will be hard. And even worse, Dalinar CAN'T be at all three places at once and Navani can't provide Towerlight for Radiants. This means all Radiants will be running out of fuel and they will struggle. Until now, they could always count on Dalinar and his perpendicularity, but now they are on their own. It's not even sure if Dalinar even goes to one of those places personally as he has to prepare himself for the Contest of Champions and protect himself from being targeted - just in case. Radiants might be running on fumes, while Fused and Regals will be full of Voidlight. 

[CognitiveShadow he/him]

8 minutes ago, alder24 said:

Yeah, that's a really tough nut for Dalinar to crack. Odium created an excellent dilemma for the coalition and I don't see any good option for them to choose. I think it will be really hard for them to successfully defend on all three fronts, especially considering that one invasion force is made entirely out of 1000 Fused and 1 Thunderclast. Dalinar's main army is still in Emul, they might be able to get back on time to aid the defense of Azir, but this might be too tight. It's way more problematic to defend other fronts. No army on the Shattered Plain can defend against that many Fused and Dalinar don't even have that many Radiants to match their numbers and there are even more Fused in the other two armies. Dalinar has to spread his Radiants across 3 different fronts, which would put them in huge disadvantage. It’s possible  Dalinar might be forced to abandon one position, or at the very least he might run out of man to send. 

I think the easiest way to defend the Shattered Plains is to use the Listeners' tactic - evacuate to the Narak, fortify it, break bridges and fight for every plateau. Even 1000 Fused will struggle to get past such a defense in a few days, maybe it will be enough to prevent them from reaching the Oathgate if there are enough troops there. But this means abandoning the 10 camps around the plains - there is still a lot of free space in the Tower, but that’s a huge existential threat to the Alethi nation.

The Azish gate will be less problematic, thankfully the gate's platform was turned into a maze which would be much easier to defend. It will be a massive choke point. They just need to hold for long enough for the main coalition force to arrive from the won offensive in Emul. However we don't know how many troops are already present in the city, or in Urithiru. I don't think there are enough of them to mount a strong defense. It will be a desperate struggle for sure, but a relief army is already marching towards Azimir.

Thaylen City will probably be the hardest to defend. Their navy was defeated, but they need it again. They need to send a force of Windrunners escorting another navy to meet their enemy at the sea, far away from the island as that’s the only way to stop the siege from starting and thus relieve all those troops from this position and send them to the other two. If that's impossible, then the city will be under siege - again. This time it might be much harder to defend against it, considering that Dalinar's forces are spread out thin. But on the other hand Dalinar already defended the city with the total of 7 Radiants plus Adolin alone, so maybe it won't be that hard? 

Ishar is a wild card, but I don't think he can do anything about any army - his army is too far away and he himself is unlikely to join Dalinar. Listeners can and it's possible they might join to fight for their freedom, because if Alethi fall on the Shattered Plains, I highly doubt Odium will leave them alone. Who knows, maybe Leshwi will manage to convince more Fused to join them? 

But there is another wild cart you haven't mentioned - Honorspren naval power. Right now it's sadly anchored and collecting dust, but Notum wants to reactivate the fleet and fight for Shadesmar. It may be possible, if Odium forces will be slowed down while passing through the Oathgate, for Notum to arrive just on time to destroy the part of Odium's army that wasn't able to pass through, effectively winning this battle.

Navani needs to start working on creating anti-Odium tone metal plates and anti-Voidlight - good thing she doesn’t need to sleep now. They have a few Raysium daggers, at least one, so they can't rely on them too much, but RoW showed us that just playing anti-Odium tone can paralyze Fused. That's a weapon to be used. But Odium can do the same and he has much more Raysium to spare and give to his troops. Radiants and Spren will die. However it's hard to say if any of this army even has a capability of creating anti-Stormlight. The Shadesmar army was sent before this discovery was even made so they might not have the equipment needed for this and would have to rely on air deliveries. The Fused and naval army were sent already so it's also hard to say if they have anti-Stormlight or means to create it. I doubt the Fused army has the equipment with them (because they rely on speed, they probably won't be resting too much to arrive on time), they probably have a limited amount of anti-Stormlight. So this all might mean that while all armies might have Raysium, they might also have a very limited amount of anti-light, or none at all. We shall see.

This will be hard. And even worse, Dalinar CAN'T be at all three places at once and Navani can't provide Towerlight for Radiants. This means all Radiants will be running out of fuel and they will struggle. Until now, they could always count on Dalinar and his perpendicularity, but now they are on their own. It's not even sure if Dalinar even goes to one of those places personally as he has to prepare himself for the Contest of Champions and protect himself from being targeted - just in case. Radiants might be running on fumes, while Fused and Regals will be full of Voidlight. 

Given all of this, did Odium even need to make a deal? Couldn't Rayse have just proceeded with this plan and avoided a contest of champions? tOdium has dalinar and team on their heels, and their only hope is to try and survive long enough for the contest of champions to happen. Seems to me like Odium could have just kept to the plan and hit them with these attacks even after losing the tower?

[alder24]

14 minutes ago, CognitiveShadow said:

Given all of this, did Odium even need to make a deal? Couldn't Rayse have just proceeded with this plan and avoided a contest of champions? tOdium has dalinar and team on their heels, and their only hope is to try and survive long enough for the contest of champions to happen. Seems to me like Odium could have just kept to the plan and hit them with these attacks even after losing the tower?

Yes, Rayse needed to do this. He feared he might lose, he feared Dalinar learned something from Ishar, he was afraid of him. He needed to end this before Dalinar learned more, he needed to win decisively or end the war for good. And the more he waits, the more Radiants will be made. Waiting doesn't serve him, in the end there will be enough Radiants to launch a successful counter offensive and retake all three places if they were to fall. The status quo of the last 7000 years would be upheld, Desolations would be raging on forever, endless war, endless casualties, endless prison - Rayse needed to break the cycle. Even his Shard, the power he held, was in conflict with him over this. RoW ch 112:

Quote

“I would prefer,” Odium said, “to make an agreement.”
Why so eager? Dalinar thought. It’s the power, isn’t it? It’s ripping you apart for delaying. It wants out.

Without the deadline, Dalinar would be able to relax, plan a layered defense and even withdraw from some of those attacked positions, reorganize and counterattack, retaking them. Capturing one city, deeply surrounded by the enemy territory is not a good strategy if you need to defend it in the long run. Sure, Oathgates are a huge help, but even they wouldn't be enough. Dalinar would have enough manpower to mobilize, enough territory to retreat towards and enough time to fight for those cities.

[Master Silver]

28 minutes ago, CognitiveShadow said:

Given all of this, did Odium even need to make a deal? Couldn't Rayse have just proceeded with this plan and avoided a contest of champions? tOdium has dalinar and team on their heels, and their only hope is to try and survive long enough for the contest of champions to happen. Seems to me like Odium could have just kept to the plan and hit them with these attacks even after losing the tower?

So I think perhaps that was Rayse plan. Dalinar mentions that Odium likely waited too long, and that is why the power was tearing him apart. This is why he was forced to set terms even though it wasn't what he wanted. But of course he knew what he was planning, so perhaps the contest is a way to keep both bondsmiths off the field of battle.