Mid-Range Game 4: The Alethi War of Unification

[Newan he/him]

Congrats to Newan for winning a Shardblade. You are now of the fourth dahn and outrank most of the lighteyes in camp. Scary thought to have the Lynchmaster given so much power over life and death.

​I have reason to believe that Jasnah is good, however I could be wrong as it is based on several things that I could easily have mis-interpreted..

It's just like what Uncle Ben said: with great power comes great opportunity to kill bad guys.

Are these reasons that you can tell us, or do they have to remain secret?

Edited December 10, 2014 by Newan

[Alvron he/him]

Some of the information I am basing my conclusions on is from a mistake of Wyrms, so am unable to share as normally I wouldn't have it.  I however do think that everyone should know that I have my reasons for not suspecting Jasnah, I just can't share.

[Mckeedee123 he/him]

Our three spies are likely to be hidden among these six:

Damon Shan

Reihmer

Odysa

Aonaran

Alinel

Torwel

With a lynch and two shardblades, we have the ability to kill three people this cycle. I say we go for it.

I don't know what to make of Torwel, Alinel, or Damon. I'll have to go back and read Torwel's posts again when I have time, and Wilson's post explaining why she voted for Alinel. I remember somebody saying that Jasnah has feigned inactivity before, so that's not a good sign. This is why I'm voting for Damon Shan.

 

Yeah. I couldn't agree more. Jasnah hasn't been doing much of anything at all this game, and that seems like a decent strategy for an eliminator. I'll second that vote. Damon Shan.

 

I'll try to hold myself back from voting for Odysa this round (As is my wont)   

 

Edit: Alvron. Who did you use your ability on? (Just curious)

Edited December 11, 2014 by mckeedee123

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Well, Jasnah already has 2 votes, so maybe she will come on and say something at least. What I picked up the most on was that last cycle Kaddar pointed out three people he was suspicious of for the same reason; posting vague rather than concrete suggestions. these people were Odysa, Aonar and Ren. Of these, Odysa has received a bit of attention, and I saw that she and Newan were at each other a little bit. Now that Newan is comfirmed to be clean, I'm going to vote for Odysa since Newan's arguments weren't biased towards killing innocents.

[Renegade he/him]

You know what?  Everyone accusing me is right; I haven’t done much analysis lately.  I’ve been wrapped in a lot of stressful stuff recently, and I haven’t really been all that focused on this game.  However, what I have been disappointed in is that the points I have made so far seem to have only been addressed against me as incriminating evidence, rather than what I intend it to be: a point of discussion.  Anyway, here's a metric ton of info, and some other analysis to go along with it.  Hopefully, I will continue my crusade for research tomorrow.  (Hopefully, I got all this info correct.)

 

Absolutely, 100% Proven True Facts:

 

This is the sixth cycle of the game (hey, we have to start with the basics)!
There are 13 players remaining; 7 have died
Wok (Ashiok) was a loyal Messenger, killed by the Spies
Jain was a Swordsman Spy, loyal to Vamah, lynched by Alinel and Jost
Meller was a loyal Watchman, lynched by Kaddar, Kenara, Jost, Aonaran, and Marand.
Karlin was a Spy Guardsman, loyal to Vamah, executed (for inactivity)
Marand was a loyal Messenger, lynched by Kenara, Newan, Ace, and Eoldren.
Ace was an Officer Spy, loyal to Aladar, Shardbladed by Tal.
Kenara was a loyal Officer.
Tal is a formerly-darkeyed Shardbearer
Newan is a formerly-darkeyed Shardbearer
Kaddar, and Jost are lighteyes.
There is 1 Wit and 1 Heterochromic.
The Wit is on the loyal team.
Each team of Spies has 2 players (i.e. there are an even number of Spies).
There are at least 3 Spy teams: Vamah, Aladar, and Roion.
3 Guardsmen have used up their abilities.
There is a Skirmish with Prince Roion today.
Newan still has his lighteyes battle skip left.
Aonaran and Jasnah did not post last cycle (I think)
There were no Spy kills in the Week 2 Battle
There were at least 2 Spy kills in the Week 5 Battle

 

Pretty-much Accepted Facts:

 

There are only 3 Spy teams.
Wyrm is a troll.
Kaddar is the King’s Wit.
Norlav is a loyal Heterochromic Surgeon.
Reihmer loves poetry far too much.
Mek is a loyal Watchman.
Eoldren is a loyal Guardsman, who protected Kaddar on Week 4.
Jost is a loyal Swordsman.
There is a Spy team of two darkeyes.
Meller was sent to the latrines Week 1 by Ace.
Kenara sent Twei to the latrines Week 2.
Kenara sent Aonaran to the latrines Week 4.
Newan is a Spearman.
Kas had a Spanreed with Karlin.
There is 1 Squadleader.

 

Mostly/Somewhat Accepted Facts:

 

There is still a Spy Messenger, Scout, and Spearman remaining.  (I’d be hesitant to use this as solid evidence, though.)
Odysa was sent to the latrines Week 1 (I think it was 1?).
Odysa and Twei are Spearmen.
Twei was contacted by a Messenger on Week 2.
3 players out of: Damon Shan, Aonaran, Reihmer, Odysa, Torwel, and Alinel are likely Spies.
Tal and Kaddar skipped Week 5’s Battle(?)

 

Reihmer’s Info (obviously, you won't take this as truth, but here it is anyway):

 

Reihmer is a loyal Spearman.
Reihmer has not received any PMs.
Reihmer has not been sent to clean any latrines (hooray!)

 

 

What could this all mean?

 

We still have two Spy teams left: Roion with two players, and Aladar with one.

 

We have narrowed down our list of likely suspects to 6 people.  We have two Shardblades, and the lynch.  If necessary, we can just wipe out all of the darkeyes in 2 turns.  Probably not a good idea, but if people are willing to go for it, one of you lighteyes can stab me as a target, to show that I’m not trying to trick you with this plan.  Of course, in reality, this should probably be used as a last-ditch Shardnuke scenario.

 

Jasnah has some sort of evidence in favor of her, so as much as I’d like to pin her down for inactivity, I’d like to see the others first.  Considering the lack of vote manipulation so far, I think Jasnah may be the Squadleader.

 

Alinel is not likely to be Jain’s partner, because of the Week 2 vote.  It’s possible, but not likely.  I’m guessing that he has a role (other than Spearman), maybe the Guardsman, Messenger, or Squadleader.  I could see him as a viable member of the Roion Spy team, trying to look inactive and not up-to-date, while still getting info from a teammate.

 

Odysa has been awfully quiet since just before Ace’s death.  Whether the two events are connected remains to be seen.  She’s claimed Spearman, and was blocked by Kenara the first cycle.

 

Aonaran has not revealed his role, and did not cast a vote at the end of Week 2 (but did on Week 4), which may imply that he is a Scout.  (Week 4 was a Skirmish, and with the number of confirmed players by then, he may not have considered himself a likely target from other Spy teams).  If we do think that he’s a Spy, we should definitely lynch him, rather than use a
Shardblade.  He’s also been quiet lately, but has checked the thread.

 

Torwel was blocked Week 2, and has tried to alleviate suspicion on Odysa multiple times.  The last post Torwel made said that Newan or Marand would’ve been more likely to write the Spanreed message than Odysa.  While Karlin was the actual Spanreed wielder, if Torwel and Odysa are spies, she would know that Odysa wouldn’t have had the Spanreed, and defended her accordingly.  (Not sure why Odysa didn’t just come up herself…)  Also, has claimed to be a Spearman.

 

(I think I’m starting to get back into the swing of things.  Chaos fixed the server issue, so I should be able to post more easily.  Also, I will resume my role as poetic mortician tomorrow.)

 

Edit: Changed my vote.  My guesses for the remaining Spies are Aonaran (Aladar Scout), Torwel (Roion Spearman/Messenger), and Odysa (Roion Spearman/Messenger).

Edited December 11, 2014 by Renegade

[Kasimir he/him]

Alv: I suspected it was a bluff. I just asked you to send in orders just in case, hoping to force Macen to make a choice between Mek and you. Since Mek isn't role-blocked, I hope he saw something but is just biding his time to talk about it. I didn't press the issue because I didn't want to make you reveal your plan.
 
Ren: I don't understand why you're talking about Jain's partner. I think you mean Macen's partner, as Ser Wolf has died from inactivity. In addition, you seem to be getting your facts wrong--in Week 4, Wilson sent Araris to the latrines. In Week 5, Wilson sent Aonar to the latrines. We know that didn't stop the Roion kill. I'm rather puzzled because your suspicions of Torwel at this point seem conditional on your suspicions of Odysa. What is your case then for Odysa's being a Spy? Wouldn't it then make more sense to lynch Torwel first?
 
Agreed about Aonar.
 
I think it's unlikely but not impossible that Joe could be a Spy (the reason I don't buy it is his confirming Jain's lynch, as given what he told Wilson about his selling out Eliminators who were doomed, his actions in Macen's lynch may or may not be consistent with his loyalty.) Still, Joe, you said you'd be back in the thread after catching up. I hope you'll actually appear sometime in this half of the cycle without me needing to vote you.
 
(On an aside) There may or may not be three or four Guardsmen, but it is indeed a fact that three have used their abilities. Karlin claimed to not have used his abilities--this was sent to me after Macen's lynch. He might have been lying, but if that is the case, then we have two Guardsmen left unaccounted for. However, if there are four Guardsmen, then I suspect only three Messengers, given the numbers.
 
Maili claimed to have contacted Twei on Week Two. He contacted me on Week One. As Maili is Dalinar-loyal, we don't need to take Twei's word for it. We can take Maili's.
 
Araris: ...the Odysa part in my last post was a typo. I'd meant to focus on Aonar and Ren. I can't decide about you. On one hand, you did start the Jain vote. On the other hand, voting for Odysa since Newan is clean is hardly the best way to make a decision. Newan could be clean and still mistaken. (After all, we're all fallible, here.) What exactly is your game?

[A Joe in the Bush]

I have caught up. I've just been rereading old games.

 

On the Subject of Jasnah possibly being the squad leader, In the conversions game, she maintained Inactivity, but used her power every cycle. If Jasnah's following the game, then she's not the squad leader.

 

As for actual suspects,  I'm thinking Alinel is a Spy, He's generally more active than this, and more helpful. I know people have pointed that out before now. I suspected Renegade until he posted the Information list, since he was finally playing as he usually does. I'm on the fence about Aonar and 12^th Root. They could be on either team. Jasnah's too inactive to really judge, and Winter Cloud has seemed on the Level this whole Game.

 

And Luckat asked about my LE Votes:

C1: Meta

C2: Kas (I believe I lied about this, saying I had voted for Wilson. Too lazy to check though)

C3: Meta

C4: Macen

C5: Witheld

C6: Alinel (As of right now.)

[Kasimir he/him]

Crude strategic suggestion:

 

1. Get Mek to watch Alv (or another likely target.)

2. Have Alv protect Mek (or another likely target.)

3. Get Luckat/Newan to do fancy things with their battle skips.

 

I missed Ren's shift. This is the second time in two cycles you've quickly retracted from Torwel. Why, exactly...?

[Newan he/him]

Alv, I'm willing to give Jasnah the benefit of the doubt because of your reasons, for now.  

 

Seeing that other people think Aonar's actions seem off makes me feel better.  I thought so.  Aonar!  What is your role?  There are enough large targets now that I doubt it's worth keeping it a secret anymore.  What do you think we should do now?  This is kind of a poke vote, but also kind of a gut feeling vote.  I will change it if you convince me that my gut is a darkfriend.  

[Kasimir he/him]

Alv, if this is information you can share with me: in which cycle did the Messenger in question contact you? In addition, Luckat--would you be able to confirm if you saved Alv, or if this is completely off?

 

Thanks.

 

Once more, repeating the call for the Guardsman who saved Alv, and the person who Macen role-blocked in Cycle Two to please come forward. Particularly the first person--you really don't want us accidentally lynching or Shardblading you as we attempt to figure out who, among those who haven't been accounted for, is our Spy.

Edit: I hate the colour editor.

Edit 2: Note that we now have four people claiming Spearman, and just one of them has been confirmed. I'm starting to think that there's something fishy in there. I'm also going to extend Newan's questions to Araris, but won't change my vote to target him because Joe already slapped down a vote on him. What do you think we should do now, Araris? Do you have anything to say besides hopping on the standing Shardwagon for Odysa? What is your role?

I will, however, swap my vote (but not my suspicions, for my paranoia is infinite) from Aonar to Torwel, whom we haven't yet heard from. Who are your suspicions, Torwel?

Edited December 11, 2014 by Kasimir

[luckat she/her]

1. I was the guardsman who saved Alv.

2. Vote discrepancies: According to my notes, Odysa had a vote on Ace and Marand had a vote on Alinel. I don’t know if this was due to scouts, squad leaders, or simply a mistake.

3. Is there any reason Ace says he’s Roion’s man at the beginning of the writeup, while he’s listed as loyal to Aladar at the end of the writeup?

4. My lighteye vote was on Aonaran. I guess Ace’s was on Karlin then?

5. I don’t know whether the messenger I’m in contact with is a spy. I’m considering using my shardblade on them if I can’t be convinced of their innocence. How likely is it that we started with three messengers loyal to Dalinar? I suppose if there is a fourth messenger, the one I’m in contact with might not be a spy. If anyone other than Alv has been contacted by any messenger other than Marand, please step forward.

6. Current votes:
Damon (2): Newan, Odysa, Mek
Aonaran (2): Kaddar, Reihmer, Newan
Odysa (1): Alinel
Torwel (1): Reihmer, Kaddar
Alinel (1): Jost

7. It’s really late and I’m way too tired to analyze any players right now.

[Kasimir he/him]

1. I was the guardsman who saved Alv.

5. I don’t know whether the messenger I’m in contact with is a spy. I’m considering using my shardblade on them if I can’t be convinced of their innocence. How likely is it that we started with three messengers loyal to Dalinar? I suppose if there is a fourth messenger, the one I’m in contact with might not be a spy. If anyone other than Alv has been contacted by any messenger other than Marand, please step forward.

Thank you. And to me, I think the main question would be if there is a chance that one of the Messengers chose not to contact anyone until someone guilty had been found. (One possibility, again assuming that Karlin was truthful in telling me that he hadn't used his abilities at all--is that the Roion team is a Guardsman-Messenger pair. So the Messenger chose to wait until the Guardsman had saved Macen, established contact that same Week, and found out the name of Macen's partner so they can collaborate at length or by code the next week. I'm not sure how likely I find that--it's just a thought.)

More pertinent, I think, is if your Messenger contacted anyone during Week Two, and who they now plan on contacting. But all that aside, it would probably come down to you and Alv. Just let us know if you plan on Shardblading them, so we don't try to lynch the same person. That would be a waste, I reckon.

Wilson voted Karlin, you voted Aonar, I voted Ren, Joe apparently didn't vote. Unless Joe's lying, then yes, it seems that Macen voted Karlin. Amusingly.

I'm currently trying to trace the Spies in terms of group-connections rather than in terms of concrete suspicions. I'll post my findings before I go to bed tonight.

Edit: I especially mention Torwel because given your mention of code phrases, I found "Not sure what's happening up north, but where I live, looks like it's going to be a wet summer." to be an interesting non-sequitur. Given that Marand is dead, could I ask if Torwel was checking in there? (I don't need to know her codephrase; I just need to be able to rule out the possibility that she was confirming contact with someone else.)

Edited December 11, 2014 by Kasimir

[Wyrmhero he/him]

2. Vote discrepancies: According to my notes, Odysa had a vote on Ace and Marand had a vote on Alinel. I don’t know if this was due to scouts, squad leaders, or simply a mistake.

3. Is there any reason Ace says he’s Roion’s man at the beginning of the writeup, while he’s listed as loyal to Aladar at the end of the writeup?

 

With regards to the vote discrepancies, it's very hard to get things absolutely right. Marand's vote is missing, so I shall add it. However, it's for Eolhondras, not Alinel, as it was never retracted. Odysa's vote was missing too, so added it. I did not count the change due to it not being coloured in. While that may seem a little cruel, I have to be consistent with the previous time this happened.

 

And that's an error, which will now be fixed.

[Kasimir he/him]

With regards to the vote discrepancies, it's very hard to get things absolutely right. Marand's vote is missing, so I shall add it. However, it's for Eolhondras, not Alinel, as it was never retracted. Odysa's vote was missing too, so added it. I did not count the change due to it not being coloured in. While that may seem a little cruel, I have to be consistent with the previous time this happened.

 

And that's an error, which will now be fixed.

Well, there go the jokes on Macen's Highprince promiscuity...

Edited December 11, 2014 by Kasimir

[twelfthrootoftwo]

Who do I suspect? Well, l think Newan's suspicion list is reasonable; they're the players that have no substantial evidence either way on their allegiance.

 

Jasnah - has been just active enough to avoid being executed. She's done this before, as a villager, meaning she could get away with hiding as a spy. Alv claims to have evidence that she's innocent, though. (Alv, if it was information you got from Wyrm that you weren't meant to have, why share its results?)

 

Reihmer - has claimed IRL issues for being less active. Promotion of 'discussion points' might have been intended to broaden the scope of discussion. Having claimed spearman, he's now involved in the role distribution argument.

 

Odysa - seems a lot quieter recently, though I might be wrong. I'm still not inclined to suspect her (yes Ren), though having claimed spearman she's now involved in the role distribution argument.

 

Aonar - is saying a lot less than usual. Most of what he's said previously is interesting in that it deviates from the line of discussion occurring. Given Macen roleblocked Meta in cycle 1, he seems a possible candidate for cycle 2.

 

Araris - is also quiet, and a lot of what he says contains misconceptions. I'm wondering if that might be a facade...

 

I think my two biggest suspicions are Aonar and Araris. I'll vote the latter, since there's three votes on Aonar at the moment.

 

 

"Not sure what's happening up north, but where I live, looks like it's going to be a wet summer."

That was my incredibly awkward attempt at my code from Luckat, received from Maill.

[Renegade he/him]

I thought I'd explained why I retracted my Torwel vote last cycle.  I wasn't going to be able to get on until the cycle was over, so I didn't want to have an extra, unnecessary vote on someone if things got hectic at the end of the cycle and I couldn't change my vote.  If you notice the timestamp for the edit this cycle, I changed it before anyone else said anything (it was more of an afterthought, that I should probably heed my own words and lynch Aonar, if indeed he is a Scout).

 

Right now, the Spy teams as I have them seem to make the most sense.  I'll double-check the facts later today, and try and come up with a timeline of actions, but if things aren't the way I have them lined up, there are an awful lot of coincidences going on.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

My role is the fourth guardsman, and I have not used my power successfully yet. The only time my order actually got through was last cycle, and I protected Luckat, since people were suspecting that she would be targeted by the spies. I have not received any PMs from anybody. The thing about misconceptions is more or less just me being careless; if you look back at previous games I've played I made similar mistakes.

 

Regardless of all that, I didn't use my role early on because I didn't want to accidentally protect a spy. I also figured that I would have a lesser chance of being sabotaged if I stayed in the background for a while.

[Kasimir he/him]

My role is the fourth guardsman, and I have not used my power successfully yet. The only time my order actually got through was last cycle, and I protected Luckat, since people were suspecting that she would be targeted by the spies. I have not received any PMs from anybody. The thing about misconceptions is more or less just me being careless; if you look back at previous games I've played I made similar mistakes.

 

Regardless of all that, I didn't use my role early on because I didn't want to accidentally protect a spy. I also figured that I would have a lesser chance of being sabotaged if I stayed in the background for a while.

Thank you. I have to say though, the number of mistakes, compared to misconceptions you've had in previous games is startlingly different. Also, the type of them. It might be because we were working up many, many pages of posts and it's not always easy to catch up with.

Still, I would like to know what you mean by "The only time my order actually got through." Are you claiming to have been role-blocked during Cycle One and Two and Four?

In addition, by this point, as you can tell, your staying in the background is not as helpful. However, given we already have a slate of suspects, and I don't think we have the same evidence against you that we did for Macen, I suggest we put you to the side for this cycle and consider other suspects. So I'm inclined to offer you the same plan we offered Macen (or a modification of the current plan for this cycle.) You protect Alv this cycle. If this is unsatisfactory, you pick someone from the set <Alv, Newan, and Luckat> to protect and you tell us who you've decided on before Wyrm gives the '10 hours to cycle end' call. If that person dies, we lynch you the next cycle, as it's clear you're not who you claim to be.

-

Mek: By this point, one half of the cycle has transpired. I'd like to ask who you targeted, and if you got a null result.

-

Ren: I was more curious about why you'd suddenly voted and retracted Torwel for this round. And I'd appreciate an explanation of why the Spy teams as you've drawn them out "make the most sense," as you've put it.

-

I'm still working on the group analysis, myself. Hopefully, I'll have it up in a while more. There's definitely something weird with things as they currently stand, though. Let's look at our current standing Darkeyes:

1 Surgeon = Alv

3 Messengers = Ash, Maili, + ?

4 Spearmen = Odysa, Newan, Torwel, Ren

4 Guardsmen = Karlin, Araris, Eoldren, and Luckat

2 Watchmen = Meta, Mek

Total = 13

There are Squadleaders and Scouts, and apparently, our current unknowns are Aonar and Jasnah. Either of whom could be a Squadleader, a Scout, or a Messenger. By this point, I'm tempted to think the Squadleader doesn't exist--Wyrm clarified from the beginning that not all roles are in the game, but I must admit that the number of people claiming Guardsman and Spearmen leaves me a bit uneasy. I'll have to look more at the distribution when drawing up my group distributions.

 

Edit: Scratch Four--sorry Araris, I myself forgot that Wilson role-blocked you during Cycle Four. Are you then claiming to have been role-blocked during Cycles One and Two?

Edited December 11, 2014 by Kasimir

[Alvron he/him]

Alv, if this is information you can share with me: in which cycle did the Messenger in question contact you?

I was contacted in the first cycle.

 

1. I was the guardsman who saved Alv.

5. I don’t know whether the messenger I’m in contact with is a spy. I’m considering using my shardblade on them if I can’t be convinced of their innocence. How likely is it that we started with three messengers loyal to Dalinar? I suppose if there is a fourth messenger, the one I’m in contact with might not be a spy. If anyone other than Alv has been contacted by any messenger other than Marand, please step forward.

Many thanks.

 

There is nothing to say that any messenger is disloyal.  It wouldn't be the first time that happened.  If you think they are a spy though then you might as well kill them.

 

Jasnah - has been just active enough to avoid being executed. She's done this before, as a villager, meaning she could get away with hiding as a spy. Alv claims to have evidence that she's innocent, though. (Alv, if it was information you got from Wyrm that you weren't meant to have, why share its results?)

I didn't claim to have evidence of innocence.  Just that with the information I have it looks that they are.  I am suspected of being good but not confirmed so any spies could use me not voting for Jasnah and not giving a reason why as a tool to deflect suspicion onto me if the others got to close.  By giving what information I could I have removed that threat.  It is a combination of what Wyrm did and my own observations of Jasnah that led me to my conclusion.  I can't share one without showing the other to give the full picture. 

 

Jasnah has played two games prior to this and in both they were borderline inactive.  Unfortunately Jasnah has played both an innocent and an eliminator without changing style so there is little to compare playstyles with.

[Mckeedee123 he/him]

Alv: I suspected it was a bluff. I just asked you to send in orders just in case, hoping to force Macen to make a choice between Mek and you. Since Mek isn't role-blocked, I hope he saw something but is just biding his time to talk about it. I didn't press the issue because I didn't want to make you reveal your plan.

 

Nope. No "special plans" here. 

 

Last cycle, I figured Kasimir was a likely target, and wouldn't be guarded, so I used my power on him. I got a negative. I've waited to share this because Alvron might have implied earlier in this cycle that he used his ability on Kaddar, and I wanted to have that confirmed by him, in which case he would be lying.

 

But other than that, the info is useless.

 

EDIT: Color

 

EDIT 2: Removed random comma that was, bugging me

Edited December 12, 2014 by mckeedee123

[Kasimir he/him]

Nope. No "special plans" here. 

 

Last cycle, I figured Kasimir, was a likely target, and wouldn't be guarded, so I used my power on him. I got a negative. I've waited to share this because Alvron might have implied earlier in this cycle that he used his ability on Kaddar, and I wanted to have that confirmed by him, in which case he would be lying.

 

But other than that, the info is useless.

 

EDIT: Color

Thanks. Apologies for foiling that, but I think Alvron was more likely to have protected you, Luckat, or Wilson, given you guys basically are more strategic targets for protection than myself. In any case, Macen seems to have role-blocked him, in which case, I believe you would have received a null result, even if he had targeted me.

[Alvron he/him]

My apologies Mek.  I missed the post where you asked who I targeted.  You were my target.  I figured that if Ace fell for my bluff and I was able to save someone then you would be best as Wilson and Luckat were going to battle skip and Kas' role is of little help in finding the spies so you were our best bet in rooting them out.

[Kasimir he/him]

Last thoughts before I'm heading off for the night: (as I said, I've mostly been examining the conditions of possibility for each person's being a Spy. In other words, I'm not saying that our suspects are Spies. I'm examining what it would take for them to be Spies/what that would imply. If we can match these scenarios up to things we know for sure/our data, then we can rule out possibilities that are incoherent. Here's what I have so far.)

 

1. Aonar. Wilson theorised that Macen was likely to have role-blocked Aonar (which is an assumption that puts Aonar on Team Roion), and that this might explain one of our missing kills. I find that a bit strange: if Aonar could've figured he was a natural candidate for a role-block, then him submitting the orders for the battle sabotage just doesn't make sense when he could delegate it to a partner. In addition, if, as Ren has suggested, Aonar was a Scout who tried to miss the Week 2 Battle (although note that this suggestion places Aonar on Team Aladar), then Aonar would never have sent in a sabotage action in the first place. His partner would have.

 

So what would it take for this to work? Well, in the first case, Aonar's partner would have to be someone who draws their own share of the attention/is just as likely to get hit by a role-block. And Aonar would have to not be a Scout/using his Scouting ability. So something like a Squadleader. In addition, this first case suggests that Aonar's partner can't be a Lighteyes, because that would be a neat way around the role-block problem and they had absolutely no reason to not take it. This, for me, suggests that if we are working on the assumption that Aonar was the one who was role-blocked and refusing to come forward, then we need to look towards a particular set of potential partners to explain the missing kill: people like Ren or Alv or possibly, Araris. (Alv is, of course, ruled out by this point.) 

 

In the second (Ren's) case, Aonar would not have been the one carrying out the Sabotage order. I do suggest this implies his partner could be either a Lighteyes (in which case the main possibilities are Joe, who I mention for the sake of completeness, but would tentatively put somewhat less weight on), or more likely, Macen. Another possible partner is a Darkeyes less likely to draw flak, hence being the one sending in the orders. Again, for the sake of completeness: Odysa, Torwel, Araris, Jasnah, Mek, Eoldren. (We obviously have reason to rule out Eoldren and Mek, I believe. Furthermore, Wilson doesn't put so much stock on the idea of Odysa partnering up with Aonar, if only because he would likely have encouraged a different playing style. I'm ambivalent about whether Torwel is a realistic possibility, though.)

 

2. Araris. As Luckat previously pointed out, Araris was role-blocked by Wilson during Week 4. The Week 4 Battle was pretty much when Macen was saved by a Guardsman. So, whether Araris is telling the truth about being a Guardsman is one thing. (After all, our only evidence for that will be if/when he makes a successful save, unless we want to L.A.F.O.) But if Araris is a Guardsman, then he cannot have saved Macen. In fact, unless Wyrm gave the Eliminators three out of five Guardsmen (Araris, Karlin, plus Macen's rescuer), I'd say it looks like Araris would then be on our side. So, whoever saved Macen, whether a Spy (Karlin or someone else, perhaps, five Guardsmen still seems too many, so the most parsimonious answer seems to be that Karlin did), or someone on our team who made a mistake, it can't be Araris. Period.

 

But this puts us in a slightly awkward position, because we have three Guardsmen. Which is by no means impossible, but something to keep in mind. But let's think a little more about things: the kill from Team Aladar and Team Roion seems to have gone through. Macen most likely made the kill, just to be safe and to prevent his partner from accidental exposure. So if Araris is a Spy, there are two possibilities for him--Team Aladar, or Team Roion. If he's on Team Roion, then we know he did not send in the kill orders last cycle. That's a bit interesting, considering that it seems the whole point of Araris lying low ("flying under the radar", as he puts it) is to avoid aggro. Who would have sent in the orders then? The partner less in the spotlight--or at least, less on Wilson's radar. Possibilities range from Joe (again, sorry, it had to be mentioned), to (I believe), Torwel, Odysa, and Jasnah. (Mek and Eoldren being ruled out for basically the same reasons; Ren and Aonar have been left out because they are somewhat on the radar, relatively speaking.)

 

I'm working through possibilities for Torwel, Odysa, Joe, Ren, and pretty much everyone whose innocence we don't have Word of Wyrm for, or at least compelling reasons to accept. Unfortunately, I'm just a bit paranoid like that >> In the case of Joe, I do think he isn't as likely to be a Spy, but then again, if I'm considering Araris, who was the first to latch onto Jain, then it seems that Joe deserves at least a second look.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

@Kas: I didn't send in any orders at all during cycles 1 and 2 because I didn't want to waste my power saving a spy, which I thought was a risk large enough to try and avoid. If you want, I'll send in my order to protect Alv, but I'm not too sure how that is going to help, since the spies wouldn't target that person if they knew that's who I was blocking. My suggestion is that you guys give me the freedom to pick one in the group of Alv, Luckat and Newan, but right now my power is set on Alv.

 

If the shardbearers don't die, then it is pretty much impossible for us to lose this game. Just between the people that have been confirmed good, we have enough votes to tie the lynch with the spies. I suspect then that I won't be a target tonight, unless the spies want to ensure that their next kill attempt goes through.

 

I'll come back on in an hour or so and see if you guys are cool with me taking a little more freedom in who I protect.

[A Joe in the Bush]

<> (in which case the main possibilities are Joe, who I mention for the sake of completeness, but would tentatively put somewhat less weight on), <>

 

<>The partner less in the spotlight--or at least, less on Wilson's radar. Possibilities range from Joe (again, sorry, it had to be mentioned), <>

 

<>Unfortunately, I'm just a bit paranoid like that >> In the case of Joe, I do think he isn't as likely to be a Spy, but then again<>

 

These Comments make me Happy.

 

I'm going to take my Vote off Araris, since you'r evidence points away from him, Though he is acting a tad suspicious. But assuming he's innocent, that would make him a good lynch target, since we're suspicious of him. So I'm going to vote for 12^th Root, who voted for Araris after I had.