Mid-Range Game 4: The Alethi War of Unification

[Mckeedee123 he/him]

Why? Is it because I am still bad at logic?

 

Nah, but reading through the conversations in the first few cycles, I got some vibes that you were in cahoots with Jain. 

[Renegade he/him]

Well, this is strange.  I haven't been able to access the site until now, since the server reset.  I'd assumed nobody could access it, but apparently it's only me.  Hopefully, assuming that it continues to work, I should be back to comment here later.  (I still can't access it on Google Chrome, though, so I can't change font colors, for some reason.)

Edited December 7, 2014 by Renegade

[Kasimir he/him]

I've gone back and gone over the Two-Officer Problem, or the Meta-Wilson-Odysa-Torwel problem, if you prefer a more lengthy way of talking about it. So at this point, we can count Vamah (1), Aladar (2), and Roion (3) as Spies, indicating that there are three Sabotage actions in operation at any given point in time. Once again, we need to assess how this measures up against the Scouts and the Lighteyes who chose to skip battle, and the the possibility of role-blocks and having hit Aladar Spies.

The upshot of this post, though, will be several things:

-Once again, I would urge/recommend all available Messengers to contact Luckat this Week. Getting coordinated is highly important, and more importantly, we need to start sieving through the Messengers to discover which of them are Spies. I find it hard to believe that in three Spy Teams, there are absolutely no Messengers at all..

If a Messenger refuses to contact Luckat, it'd seem somewhat suspicious. More relevantly, in the case of a dispute (say, if the Messenger claims to have been role-blocked), I think it would be useful to confirm with our current Officer about whether that charge is true.

-We find ourselves with more than one Officer in most of the cases. That the other Officer is unwilling to come forward is strange.

-In most of the scenarios I've tested out on the truth-table, the lynchpin is mostly with regard to whether Wilson has or hasn't been truthful. If Wilson is truthful, that pretty much necessitates that Odysa and Torwel are truthful (despite the skewed temporal order). The only possible scenario where Wilson is truthful and someone is lying is the one where Wilson is telling the truth and Torwel is lying. However, in those scenarios, there would be a possibly-good reason for Torwel to be lying without Torwel's being a Spy.

-So, a truth-table mapping out the possibilities where Wilson is lying consists in four rows. (This is a necessary fact, because the only variables we are assigning different truth-values would basically be Odysa and Torwel. However: consider that Wilson’s claim is essentially a conjunction: that she role-blocked Odysa on Week 1 [W1] and that she role-blocked Torwel on Week 2 [W2]. This essentially results in three possible ways Wilson’s claim could be false, inflating the scenarios we’re looking at to 10. (See: ¬ [W1] & [W2], [W1] & ¬ [W2], and ¬ [W1] & ¬ [W2].) By right, there should be 12 of them, but 2 of them are incoherent, as they are scenarios in which Wilson role-blocks Odysa but Odysa lies about being role-blocked.

-The upshot from these scenarios: 1. Torwel could be lying, but it could be for other valid reasons besides her being a Spy. However, of course, the possibility that Torwel is a Spy cannot be readily dismissed, strictly on the basis of the scenarios. 2. Communication is required in some of these scenarios; however, it is not necessitated, because of 1. and because Odysa posted first. 3. There are anywhere between 1-3 Officers, and if Wilson isn’t an Officer, she must be in contact with one, pointing towards a Lighteye-Heterochromic team, or a connection between two separate Spy teams (Wilson would not be likely to be on Team Vamah, as two Lighteyed Spies on the same team could easily sway the vote in catastrophic ways.)

I’ve appended the table to this post in case my reasoning has been deficient. I've chosen to append them in the form of images so as to deflect worries about my tampering with them: for me to alter the images would be to alter the post's contents. I did not spend overmuch time analysing the results; this is more a blow-by-blow of 'what it would take' for Wilson to be lying, and for Odysa and Torwel to be lying/telling the truth. As previously mentioned, I reiterate that the table where Wilson tells the truth is uninteresting because in most cases, Wilson's telling the truth necessitates that Odysa and Torwel are telling the truth, hence rendering the other scenarios incoherent, save the ones in which Torwel lies. And truthfulness and lying may be caused by being Spies or Loyal, but could easily be due to other reasons. Hence my primarily being interested in conditions, rather than whether it tells us these are Spies. Perhaps this might seem over-cautious to some. I do not deny this charge.

[Newan he/him]

Hi guys.  Sorry I wasn't active yesterday.  I went online because I was at the signing and I was posting in the thread about that, but I don't think I managed to make it over here and post.  

 

I'm debating quite a bit between Odysa, Mail, Newan, Macen and Kas. I'm fair convinced Kas is the Wit, however, so I think not voting for him would be prudent, for the time being. Maill and Odysa seem like a good pair of candidates for another Spy Team, but I can't be certain. (And both of them already have votes, so I'll let things slide for now.) Newan and Macen are both suspicious for very similar reasons. They've been around, they've posted, occasionally commented on the discussion, but really contributed very little. I think I'll vote Newan for now, seeing how he's online at the moment, and he's probably been the less helpful of the two of them. 

 

Are you saying that I am suspicious because Macen and I would be a good Spy Team?  I'm not sure what you're saying.  Or why you're saying it.  Have Macen and I been voting for the same people? I should probably go check for myself, but you're one accusing here.

 

 
"Mistress Odysa," said Kaddar, "You are entirely welcome to test the veracity of my claim. Or at least, I would say that if I wasn't wary of instigating a second Meller incident. The one has been quite excessive, wouldn't you say? You are welcome, therefore, to make what you will of it." He winked and strode off.

Newan. Can't deny that I'd like to hear more--especially considering you're sort of behaving as you did during LG7 and you were our House skaa then. You were more helpful during the first part of QF4, and it's not as if you'll be in danger of being converted, this time around.

I know a second vote may seem excessive--I'll definitely switch it out later, but I'm trying to get those Supreme Lynchmaster senses tingling, for the moment, as I work on something else.

 

Yeah, I have been acting kind of like that.  It's not because I'm guilty.  It's because both times I was having trouble finding the time to read everyone's analysis deeply.  I feel my senses a'tingling, though.  There's definitely a tingle back there.  

 

Retracting and replacing a vote would 'reset' your place in the vote order, as you have technically removed your vote and made a new one, even if they happened simultaneously.

Is that how I came to be?  That's confusing.  

 

 

And now for my vote.  Guys.  There are five spies.  That's not good.  

 

Some of the more intense players are really into complicated analysis of really small details, and that's good.  We need that.  But we also need somebody who can state the obvious sometimes.  Sherlock needs his Watson, ya know?  

 

Meta wasn't really that suspicious.  And I'm not really that suspicious.  But Odysa is really flipping suspicious.  Who agrees with me?  Well, according to the posts in this cycle, Mailliw, Wilson, Renegade, Aonar, and Mack all agree that Odysa has been acting suspicious.  So why is Mack the only one who has voted against her?  

 

Yes, there are going to be some really sneaky spies.  But with five of them, total, there are going to be some who are less discrete.  We shouldn't kill off our most experienced players based off of evidence as circumstantial as "He thought that a person was bad when the other players thought he could be bad or good."  I think it will take that kind of deduction to kill the last couple of spies, but we don't need to stoop that low yet.  

 

So, I am proposing that we kill Odysa instead of role blocking her, and then we use the results of the lynch to try and narrow down on whether Wilson has a cold, evil heart hidden beneath all that kindness.  (We all saw you lev your vote.  That was gorram suspicious).

 

 

PS. I also worry that two of the teams of eliminators might already be in contact.  After the battle where nobody was killed, it was probably because at least one eliminator targeted another eliminator, right?  And Kasimir thinks that at least one messenger is a spy.  I'm not saying it's likely.  I'm just saying that it's a possibility.  

 

Edit: color

Edited December 7, 2014 by Newan

[Kasimir he/him]

It's 5am in the morning, and so I can't really process that to a good extent, but thank you for your reply, Newan. I do appreciate it and I'll assess it at some time when my increasingly-strained mind is able to focus.

 

...I am dubious about the wisdom of this, but I'd like to put a vote on Eoldren. You made a few interesting posts throughout the cycles; what do you think, at this point?

 

In addition, I'd like to flag Jasnah (Damon Shan): in QF4, she explicitly used feigned inactivity as a strategy. Granted, she was Good in that game, but the problem is that inactivity can be both a strategy of a Loyal/Spy player. Also on the 'haven't heard much from them' list, I'd include Karlin, and Mek (if only because the 'vibes' are at the moment some amorphous and ill-defined entity), and to lesser extents, Alinel. Besides putting the first vote on Jain, Alinel's mostly been silent since. What gives?

 

Half a cycle's a-wastin', gentlemen. We ain't got much time on that clock. We gotta find ourselves some Spies, y'ken?

[Newan he/him]

Yes, we do, Kas. So, Newan. If I am good, does that mean Wilson is good or bad?

Edit:

You know the deal by now: COLOR

I'm not sure.  There are lots of possibilities (see Kasimir's post with charts) and your death would only narrow it down a little bit.  But I do think you're bad, and if your death will make it a little bit easier to get a read on Wilson, well that's a win-win.  

[Newan he/him]

Okay, if you really think I'm a spy, then my pending death will help you find out if Wilson is good or bad.

[Alvron he/him]

On 12/8/2014 at 0:30 AM, twelfthrootoftwo said:

I'd like to hear from Norlav, who saw (at least) the beginning of the Meta/Kas duel, but posted only to clarify the highstorm rules.

I posted to hopefully clear the air on the highstorm/actions conflict I saw happening.  At the time I was on the local golf course and didn't have access to my notes and didn't want to place a vote without checking my notes which were at home.

My sister and her partner also arrived to stay for a couple of days without informing me so I have had less time to keep up with the thread as I do the obligatory family activities.  Something that I try to avoid almost religiously.

However I have had some thoughts on the missing Officer problem. I am placing my vote on Ace.  My logic is as follows.

Meta claimed to be roleblocked and Wilson denies doing it.  Meta has been proven innocent so it is likely that he was telling the truth.
Wilson has claimed to be an Officer.  And has been basically proven by Twei backing up Wilsons claim of roleblocking. (Could be a lie.  Wilson and Twei could both be spies and are pulling our strings.)
Kas has almost been proven as Wit.  Something which doesn't surprise me given how much trolling he has been doing.
Luckat is proven to be good by winning a Shardblade.
I am the Heterochromic and am not the officer.
That leaves Joe or Ace as the remaining officer.
Joe voted for Jain, a known spy.  (Might be a spy that got one of his own killed.  Wouldn't be the first time he has pulled that trick.)
So that leaves Ace.  Nothing really points to him being a spy but nothing says he isn't either.
Even if we kill a loyal then we should still have control of the lighteyed vote unless there is a third spy among the lighteyes and Wilson is the second spy which I don't really see happening.

Edited June 19, 2016 by Alvron

[Newan he/him]

What's that supposed to mean?

It's supposed to mean yes.  Sorry.  I watched Inglourious Basterds last night, and that part makes me laugh every time.  

[Kasimir he/him]

When going through the scenarios, the thing I find with regard to Twei and Wilson both lying is that I can't see the purpose it's serving: Wilson just about dragged her Spy-mate into the spotlight, all for a reveal that she was an Officer. It's possible, but it's kind of strange, tactically. But this is Wilson, after all; just that as Maili earlier testified, Wilson prefers to avoid drawing unnecessary connections when evil, at least that was true of LG9. So maybe some of you guys familiar with Evil!Wilson can further clarify on this point; but yeah, I agree that I would put somewhat more credence on Wilson's claim to be an Officer.

 

This is actually rather useful; thank you, Alv. If you're being truthful, then the result is that (though we already knew it), the Lighteyed Officer-Spy in question is actually on either Aladar's team or Roion's team. If that's the case, then we likely have one Darkeyes-Darkeyes team, and the Vamah team seems to be a Lighteyed Swordsman-Darkeyed-Role team, probably for balance, since 14: 6 is still a bit on the big side, I'd say. So it'd have to be balanced out appropriately.

 

With regard to Macen, I had one or two additional qualms, but again: I'll add that later today after I've gotten some shut-eye. And last; with regard to the Odysa-Wilson problem, I would say that because Wilson called out Odysa early, by the same estimation of Eliminator style, it seems strange that they might be Spies together, but we can't eliminate (ha!) that possibility, I guess. So on one hand, Odysa's being a Spy doesn't exactly eliminate the possibility in which Wilson is also a Spy and Odysa's partner. To make things worse, because Wilson's claim to have role-blocked Odysa comes after Odysa claimed to have been role-blocked, there's really no way of sorting that out in a foolproof manner, since communication has already occurred. Then again, if the other Officer is a Spy, then it does highly increase the chances that Wilson is on the level, since in most of the cases, I've figured we'd end up with 2-3 Officers and Alv has claimed to not be one. Unless both Joe and Macen are Officers, it seems that if we can figure if Joe or Macen look more suspicious/likely to be a Spy than Wilson, then such a lynch might have potential to be informative. Perhaps. (I'll need to think this through with a clearer mind.)

 

Good night/morning, all.

[little wilson she/her]

Scenario 3: I'm the Wit and you got rid of your role. Of course, we're pretty sure we know who the Wit is, but it is a possibility.

That's actually pretty much an impossibility at this point. The only way you could be Wit is if you were heterochromic, and Alv already asked (Edit:stupid phone's swipe) admitted to being the heterochromic. I see no reason for him to say that if he's lying.

There been a lot that's happened in the past day, and while I've read it, I haven't had time to analyze it with my notes, so I'm going to wait until I'm able to get on my computer (I'm on my phone currently) to figure out which of Odysa, Newan, Ace, and Jost I'm most suspicious of (because I've had at least slight suspicions of all four for the last cycle).

[Renegade he/him]

Still having server connection issues.  If/until this gets fixed, catching up on the thread and posting will be difficult.  For one thing, I can't quote anything.

 

Newan: When did I ever say that I was suspicious of Odysa this cycle?  The closest that I said was that she isn't the least suspicious person here, but it seems to be a bit of a stretch to say that I declared suspicions of her.  While, sure, I could say she's "erratic," I haven't seen anything that has really incriminated her, and there's a difference between "erratic-ness" and suspiciousness.

 

Onto other matters: I haven't seen anyone discuss anything about protective precautions for the Spy kill this cycle. The issue we have here is that there's a considerable chance that the Spies have an Officer, who could potentially block someone protecting Luckat (who I'd assume we'd want to protect).  At the same time, we might not want all of our protective roles protecting Luckat, because that means that the Spies have a clear shot at any other player (including Kas, who appears to be our Wit).  Any thoughts on this?

 

I'm not sure what else to say at this point, but I again encourage everyone to post more often, and vote more aggressively.  Sure, we're all busy during this time of the year, but still, near-inactivity isn't going to help (I'm talking to you, Jasnah and/or Karlin).

[Newan he/him]

Newan: When did I ever say that I was suspicious of Odysa this cycle?  The closest that I said was that she isn't the least suspicious person here, but it seems to be a bit of a stretch to say that I declared suspicions of her.  While, sure, I could say she's "erratic," I haven't seen anything that has really incriminated her, and there's a difference between "erratic-ness" and suspiciousness.

I was just listing all of the people who said that they thought she was at least a little bit suspicious.  And since you said she wasn't the least suspicious person, I thought that you meant you found her a little bit suspicious, but you thought other targets were more important.  

 

Sorry if I misinterpreted you.

[Aonar he/him]

Interesting. If you're telling the truth, Vron (and that's not something I'm willing to take for granted), then Macen and Joe (voting for him just to be sure he takes notice of the accusations against him and Macen) are definitely good options. We can always roleblock/shardblade kill Newan/Odysa. 

 

As per custom, I'll wait for them to come around and defend themselves before putting a more permanent vote, (assuming they respond before I go to sleep this time) but lynching one of them is likely the best course of action this cycle.

 

Newan: What I meant was that you were suspicious for reasons similar enough I didn't want to bother writing them down twice, not that I believe you and Macen to be part of the same Spy Team. (Although we have no evidence for or against this so I suppose it could be possible.)

 

Odysa: (From a while ago) That comment was mainly based off of Maill's oddly strong defence of you from a few cycles back. My current bet is that if you are a Spy, you're either aligned with Vamah or on Maill's team. That's not certain, by any stretch of the imagination, but that seems most probable.

[Newan he/him]

Newan and Macen are both suspicious for very similar reasons. They've been around, they've posted, occasionally commented on the discussion, but really contributed very little.

These reasons?  Because I don't agree with these reasons.  Different people have different playstyles, and it's ok to try out a new one.  Charting my suspicious: didn't work for me.  Trying to become a center of communication during a conversion game: also didn't work out.  So I am still posting my suspicions and answering questions, just like I have always done, but give me a break from the attitude where if somebody doesn't play like Meta/Kasimir/Renegade/Aonar/Wilson, they must be hiding something.  Because that is the only thing that I have done "wrong" in this game.  I appreciate those who like doing complex analysis, but it doesn't work for everyone.

 

We can always roleblock/shardblade kill Newan/Odysa. 

To kill or block me would be a waste of an action.  I've got no powers and have had very little interaction with others.  It wouldn't stop the bad guys, and it wouldn't prove anything either.  In a game with multiple teams of eliminators, you can't even say "he argued with this person, that means they aren't aligned similarly".  

 

So what should you do about me?  Well, I'd say that you should trust me for now.  Hopefully my hunch will be correct, and Odysa will turn out to be an eliminator.  Then you will be a little bit closer to being able to trust me.  

[Eolhondras he/him]

Eoldren!

Trouble… Eoldren had been sarcastically marching through the street, minding his own business when he heard his name called from behind. Tone and volume suggested light eyes… Trouble… With a sudden burst of acceleration, sarcastic marching became sarcastic double-time and Eoldren did his best impression of Charlie Chaplin running to the Benny Hill Theme Song. (Who, what? Roshar? Eh..)

 

Perhaps it was ill fate or perhaps an excess of sarcasm was what caused him to trip and fall, but either way he found himself looking up at Kaddar, one of the more agreeable light eyes, but still, definitely not someone to be singled out by. Helping himself to his feet, (Kaddar wasn’t That agreeable), Eoldren though he caught a glimpse of indecision in those perfectly light eyes.

 

“What do you think about the situation with spies in the camp?”

 

Well now this could be an interesting conversation. Eoldren turned around to see who the question was addressed to.

 

“Eoldren, what do you think about the situation with spies in the camp?”

 

Fighting the urge to attempt sarcastically teleporting to another world, he turned back slowly. Perhaps he’d better answer the question.

 

…………

 

Firstly I would like to highlight that Dalinar’s vote was absent again and as such I would like to know where each light eyes placed their vote. Including Norlav, if I’m correct in assuming he has one as the heterochromic. In addition to that, I would like some pressure applied to those who have not been forthcoming with the target for their secret votes. Wilson has been good with this however she is really the only one. MAcen. If you don’t mind, I would like your previous targets as well as whom you plan to vote for this time round.

 

Following Norlav’s logic, where either Macen or Joe are the Spy Officer, it follows that the other, or perhaps Norlav is the surgeon. Begs the question do we risk attempting to eliminate an opposition officer and have the chance of killing our best protection. I am willing to focus on the dark eyes suspects for now IF there is more transparency with the light eyed vote. Otherwise that becomes a major issue.

 

Now. As to where my vote will stay for the duration of the evening, if the light eyes are forthcoming with the information which we decided early should be posted, and agreed upon on the forum, then I am inclined to agree with Newan and the vote for the obvious strategy. If not, it will stay on whichever light eyes I deem most suspicious. 

 

Edit: I'm curious as to the choice of words Kas, "Dubious about the wisdom"? Is it that you believe I am a spy? Or that you believe me not particularly helpful? 

Edited December 8, 2014 by Eolhondras

[A Joe in the Bush]

Sorry for not posting sooner guys, lots of RL stuff is getting in the way. I've tried to analyse and vote a bunch today, but keep getting called away. 

 

Anyway, I'm not the officer, Kas is the Wit, Wilson is an Officer, and Alvron says he's not, but revealed he's the heterochromic, which he wouldn't do unless he (Or his partner Spy) Were, so I'll vote Macen as the Officer Spy. I probably won't be able to get back on for a while, so don't expect me to.

Edited December 8, 2014 by The Only Joe

[Alvron he/him]

I'm debating quite a bit between Odysa, Mail, Newan, Macen and Kas. I'm fair convinced Kas is the Wit, however, so I think not voting for him would be prudent, for the time being. Maill and Odysa seem like a good pair of candidates for another Spy Team, but I can't be certain. (And both of them already have votes, so I'll let things slide for now.) Newan and Macen are both suspicious for very similar reasons. They've been around, they've posted, occasionally commented on the discussion, but really contributed very little. I think I'll vote Newan for now, seeing how he's online at the moment, and he's probably been the less helpful of the two of them. 

Interesting. If you're telling the truth, Vron (and that's not something I'm willing to take for granted), then Macen and Joe (voting for him just to be sure he takes notice of the accusations against him and Macen) are definitely good options. We can always roleblock/shardblade kill Newan/Odysa. 

Aonar, your vote on Joe won't be counted as your one on Newan is still active.  Also it hurts that you don't trust me.  As far as I can tell you are one of the few that I have never lied to.

Firstly I would like to highlight that Dalinar’s vote was absent again and as such I would like to know where each light eyes placed their vote. Including Norlav, if I’m correct in assuming he has one as the heterochromic.

•The Heterochromic does not get to take part in the Lighteyed vote.

Sadly the Almighty has denied me my right to the secret vote.

[little wilson she/her]

Okay. Finally on my laptop.
 
Odysa: I can't really say more about her than I've already said. I still think she's suspicious, but at the same time, I'm getting vibes that she's being straight with us too, so I'm ambivalent toward her. I wouldn't be surprised if she were a spy, but I wouldn't be surprised if she weren't.
 
Newan: His most recent post has me inclined to believe him, for now. That is subject to change in the future. Obviously.
 
Macen: He hasn't done anything particularly suspicious. As I've read through some of the main game thread (only certain parts though), I came across one of the posts Kas mentioned, where Macen agreed with me about the wording of Kas' post. It does seem a little suspicious, but at the same, he could've been telling the truth. Regardless, in this post, he implied that he was a swordsman:

 

As far as my comment on meta's plan - you're right. There aren't many (if any) flaws in it. I just don't like using my role as a "non-role". The first two games I was in, I was 100% vanilla and it was boring (still fun, but boring). So, my statement didn't really have anything to do with his plan, just me being stubborn. :/

 
As I reread that entire post just now (not just the part I've quoted), I got a vibe that he's not being entirely straight. Although that could just be because of the emoticon right at the end of the quoted section, since the sentence before it seems more like a tongue-in-cheek sentence, rather than a :/ sentence. But I don't know. It could be something beyond that too. (Note that I'm not saying his choice of emoticon is incriminating. I'm just getting a vibe from that post and I can't nail the feeling down to anything particular, but the emoticon did strike me as off, which is why I mentioned it. It's the only real thing I notice, but I know it's more than just the emoticon). Plus, there's the whole "Implied Swordsman" bit. If that's true, he's unlikely to be a spy, as I think there are only 2 lighteyed spies, and the other one has to be an Officer. However, he could easily be lying, as that's a very convenient solution to counter my suspicions toward him.
 
Jost: Again, there's nothing particularly suspicious about his behavior. He's been doing things mostly like he always does. The problem is that Joe has more experience with being evil than anyone else who plays, so I don't think using his behavior is a very good judge. Given the people who were on the chopping block when he voted in Cycle 2 (Jain, Aonar, Karlin, Maill, and Ace), and Joe's notes about them (although he forgot about Aonar and he missed Maill's vote-retraction for me), which he listed in this post here, his vote on Jain doesn't tell us anything. He would've placed that vote if he were good, but he also would've placed it if he were a spy. As Alvron already pointed out, Joe (like me) has a history of lynching teammates if it'll get him trusted (although I've only done it to Joe, so #justice). So...I don't know.
 
I'm inclined to go with my gut and say Macen, and I probably will, but he's already accrued a decent amount of votes, so I'm going to hold off for a bit to give him time to defend himself.

 

EDIT1: For color

 

EDIT2: So as not to double post.

 

My lighteyes vote is again going on Jasnah this cycle. I also just sent in my order on who's about to have a very personal experience with the latrines. I'll let you know who the lucky soul is after the rollover. 

Edited December 8, 2014 by little wilson

[Macen he/him]

Well, since I seem to be the top suspect on the list at the moment. I will go ahead and say what my role is. I'm a surgeon.

I targeted Meta the first day (he seems to get targeted first round a lot in previous games - and his ability to open up conversations is very helpful to have around. I also didn't really have many enough info to be able to target anyone else).

Cycle two, I targeted Mailliw, because we again were kind of just pointing out bad guys, and still didn't have any "confirmed" good guys.

Wilson: As far as my :/ emoticon, I use it to display a "meh - it's in the past" kind of emotion. I was talking about previous games and how they weren't as fun when I didn't have a role. Because of that, if I have any sort of action I like to take full use of the actions.

I realize that me being a surgeon is just as believable as others being any of their roles (with the exception of Wilson - I think she has fairly cemented that).

I will hopefully be able to defend myself more in the morning, but I need to get some sleep. Someone asked about the lighteyes votes, I have already stated who I voted for, but it was Meta (due to our plan) and Jain (he was already top votes anyways). I won't say who I'm targeting with my surgeon ability this time (so as not to give it away).

I'm under the opinion that Joe is the other officer, but I don't have time to compile proof (this whole weekend has been hectic, I've been keeping up on the posts on my phone, but haven't been able to take notes). I would like to point out that we have no confirmation that Kas is the wit. He has claimed to be nearly everything this game (which leads me to think he is the wit, it's not proof).

*EDIT* Color....

Edited December 8, 2014 by Macen

[Kasimir he/him]

Edit: I'm curious as to the choice of words Kas, "Dubious about the wisdom"? Is it that you believe I am a spy? Or that you believe me not particularly helpful? 

Thanks for posting, Eoldren. That was really a more general phrasing: I was dubious about the wisdom of running off my memory of players' post-frequencies, at a time when I was exhausted, to boot. I just felt that I didn't want to waste the time by going off to sleep without leaving a vote to prod someone into speaking. So I did that. And as previously mentioned, on Week 1, I used my secret vote on Meller. On Week 2, I went for Alinel, and for Week 3, I used it on myself. Anyway, Karlin. Where have you been?

With regard to the protection, Ren, I see the problem you're hinting at. I'd suggest one Surgeon on Luckat, the Surgeon and a Guardsman, if we want to absolutely be certain. That's the best we can do without knowing the protective roles--and we shouldn't. That's just the nature of the beast in games like these, I'm afraid. The other alternative is we can go House Urbain/MR1 and start listing down people we do want to protect. (I don't know if we want to expand these to other roles, since we've already been suggesting that the Messengers contact Luckat.) Possibly, to cover our bases, we could suggest who the Officers (both of them!) ought to role-block. We would then regard deviation as an indication that the Officer in question is a Spy. (To the second Officer, whoever you are: I understand you may have reasons for wanting to remain silent, but they don't look good at this point in time. If you aren't rooted out by this lynch, don't come forward, and certainly aren't cooperative, we'll have no other explanation for your actions than that you are a Spy.)

How to protect Luckat in battles is another issue--we'll cross that bridge when we come to it, since it looks like we need to schedule three layers of protection. If we can start to vet our Messenger network, then we may be able to better deploy protection. But at this stage, it's all just a thought--the only concrete suggestion I'd actually endorse would be to either task that Surgeon/Surgeon-Guardsman on Luckat, or to make up our wish-list of protection and let the protectors choose. The latter has the nice effect of making it so that the Eliminators, too, aren't sure who to role-block, and if they don't role-block the right person, then they waste their kill on Luckat. (This assumes all of them try to Sabotage Luckat.) We can't rule out the effect of random bad luck with the second possibility, though.

Next: are we going to designate a target for the Lighteyes secret vote this time?

And Joe: I'm not sure if you meant to colour that vote, but I thought I should inform you that it isn't coloured. Who did you use your Lighteyes vote on, so far?

Last, on the issue of lynching Macen. The main way I think Alv could gain from lying on this (I'm not saying he is) is that Macen's being innocent and a swordsman really doesn't implicate him. We'd have to look between Alv and Joe for our two Officers/Spies, and...well, there are, of course, the possibilities in which Wilson is an Officer and a Spy...I'm not sure what evidential weight Macen's innocence would lend to which belief, here. And that's not a major issue as I think (with some reservation) that tracing our other Officer seems to be a more promising route than immediately going for Odyssa. At the same time, it just seems to me that I'd like to be a bit clearer about what exactly we would gain if we discover Macen to be innocent, because if that leads us to another likely bloodbath, then already, the possibility that Alv is lying becomes especially pertinent.

 

Edit: My consistent response to people pointing out they have no real 'evidence' for my being Wit is that you're always welcome to lynch me and find out Help me fulfil my personal goal! Meta tried. Apparently, by the last thirty minutes before a lynch or so, it stops looking like a real great idea. But hey, if it helps, why not?

Edited December 8, 2014 by Kasimir

[Aonar he/him]

These reasons?  Because I don't agree with these reasons.  Different people have different playstyles, and it's ok to try out a new one.  Charting my suspicious: didn't work for me.  Trying to become a center of communication during a conversion game: also didn't work out.  So I am still posting my suspicions and answering questions, just like I have always done, but give me a break from the attitude where if somebody doesn't play like Meta/Kasimir/Renegade/Aonar/Wilson, they must be hiding something.  Because that is the only thing that I have done "wrong" in this game.  I appreciate those who like doing complex analysis, but it doesn't work for everyone.

 

Whoa there, Newan. If you think I'm suspicious of you just because you don't play the game the same as few of the other players, then I'm really sorry I came across like that, and that's not what I was going for at all. I get that you're a little behind on everything that's going on, and taking this game a little less seriously (although that appears to be changing). It's largely that at the time, I really had nothing to go off of, and I knew that you were liable to respond to accusations relatively quickly. That's not to say I trust you, but at the moment, I really don't trust anyone (except for Tal and [sort of] Kas, of course). 

 

 

Aonar, your vote on Joe won't be counted as your one on Newan is still active.  Also it hurts that you don't trust me.  As far as I can tell you are one of the few that I have never lied to.

 

Fixed. I saw what you did in QF4. No way I'm trusting you if I can help it. : P

 

I'm not sure who I want my vote to be on, at the moment. I don't know whether or not you're lying about being the Surgeon, Macen, but I'm not sure I want to kill you either. Then again, no that you've outed yourself, you're probably going to be dead in a couple cycles even if you are telling the truth... Eh. I don't know, and I'm too tired to spend much time trying to figure it out. I'd like to see Joe/Vron's responses, but I'm not going to be back on and capable of posting again until after rollover. I guess I'll leave things where they are. I'm trusting you guys not to screw up.

[Kasimir he/him]

I'm not sure who I want my vote to be on, at the moment. I don't know whether or not you're lying about being the Surgeon, Macen, but I'm not sure I want to kill you either. Then again, no that you've outed yourself, you're probably going to be dead in a couple cycles even if you are telling the truth... Eh. I don't know, and I'm too tired to spend much time trying to figure it out. I'd like to see Joe/Vron's responses, but I'm not going to be back on and capable of posting again until after rollover. I guess I'll leave things where they are. I'm trusting you guys not to screw up.

You say this right after the dogpile of last cycle? Really? I don't even...

[little wilson she/her]

Hm. This changes things. Especially since Macen just made himself the biggest target currently, assuming he's not lying.

 

 at the moment, I really don't trust anyone (except for Tal and [sort of] Kas, of course). 

 

...That hurts, Aonar. I thought you kind of trusted me too. Not even a little bit? No? Dang.

 

 

I have absolutely no idea what to do with my vote now. Aonar makes a good point about Alvron's skill. That makes me hesitant to believe his claim of not being the Officer, although I want to. I want to vote for Jost now. But at the same time, I kind of want to see how things play out and if Macen gets targeted today or tomorrow. Ah, heck. Why not? Jost.

[Kasimir he/him]

Wait. Are we seriously going with decimating the Lighteyes just to find who the Officer is? (I grant it's maybe not a big deal if we think about it, since we're not exactly using the Lighteyes vote, but throwing it elsewhere, but I'm starting to get very worried about the direction we're taking.)
 
Also, to all who keep saying "Well, I just thought I should point out you could *possibly* not be the Wit", I have only this to say unto thee:

L.A.F.O.