Stone shamans always watching

[hoser he/him]

@Ooklalhoo'Elin: I like to try to figure out how the world behind the story works.  When we read the annotations in a decade or three, we will absolutely know things.  Until then, I like to speculate based on sparse clues.  Some of the techniques I use are Occam's Razor and generalizing based on limited examples.  I understand (and I hope most readers do also) that my speculations are not proven and may be invalidated by new information.  I also err by stating my assumptions as fact on occasion.  I often make mistakes and even miss information which would invalidate my speculation. 

 

I can understand that you might find it upsetting.  I am sorry if it bothers you. 

 

Here is something that bothers me.  I don't like it when people ascribe positions to me that I don't hold.  Twice, I see you ascribing a level of certainty to my speculations that I don't claim.  This seems like a straw man argument.  When you argue against my certainty and claim of absolute knowledge, you are not arguing with me, but rather with your own straw man. 

 

Please consider the following:

I wrote:

It is also relevant that we know that Renarin has not visited the Nightwatcher.  The only magical event we know is his relationship w/his spren.  Occam's Razor and a logical connection does not seem like an "incredibly flimsy justification".

 

You attributed:

The assumption seems to be: Visions and "seeing things" are similar, and we know literally every possible source of arcane phenomena

While it was an assumption that Renarin had not visited the Nightwatcher and I did state it as knowledge (mea culpa), my hope was that it was clear that I was using Occam's Razor to associate Renarin's visions with his budding Radiance.  While I appreciate having my assumption about Renarin not visiting the Nightwatcher challenged (by the way, do you really think he did?), the essence of Occam's Razor is to discount things we know nothing about.   I do not, nor do I claim to know literally every possible source of arcane phenomena.  When you attribute that to me and argue against it, I get distracted from the interesting substantive discussion I would rather have with you. 

 

I wrote:

Yes, it is not absolutely proven.  If we learn of another magical intervention affecting Renarin, we will have to consider whether the visions come from that.

You attributed:

until we are expressly told that there's a second influence, we are compelled to assume there is only one, and everything arcane about Renarin must therefore come from this one source.

 

That is not what I said.  I cannot compel you.  I don't want to compel you.  You are free to consider whatever you want.  In fact, I should not have said "we," as all readers are free to not consider whether the visions come from the hypothetical second magical intervention. 

 

I assumed that a prince (4th in the line of succession, I believe) and a frail youth would not have disappeared for at least the month that I believe it would have taken to visit the Nightwatcher without people knowing about it.  Renarin has clearly researched the Nightwatcher, however, and his father and brother could have been training or fighting at the Shattered Plains while he was in Kholinar.  Until you explain your logical chain, I can't understand where it diverged from mine. 

Misquoting me, and arguing against your misquotation, is just confusing to me. 

 

They're not open...
Kay... I've made my point twice now as plainly as I can, and you seem to be arguing against a somewhat different point which is not the one I'm making. I'm gonna try saying this again, and I ask you to read it with an open mind, and accept that my previous posts might have given you a mistaken impression. Pretend you never read them, and take this at face value, without trying to reconcile it with what you think I was saying before.

Right now, we only know of one arcane influence on Renarin. We have at least two other instances of Surgebinders also having a second arcane influence. Making the assumption that Renarin cannot possibly have a second influence we don't yet know about is premature. It's possible, though I've provided my evidence claiming I think it's unlikely. What I'm contending against, however, is the assumption you just stated, which is that until we are expressly told that there's a second influence, we are compelled to assume there is only one, and everything arcane about Renarin must therefore come from this one source.

Given that I feel his visions are unlikely to be from Surgebinding, and given that we know there are several as-yet unexplained phenomena all throughout Roshar, the most logical (but not by any means a definitive) conclusion is that his visions are the result of a second source, just like his Father's, just like Lift's capacity to metabolize food into Stormlight.

Incidentally... how do you know Renarin never went to the Nightwatcher? He does have a neurological condition. Just sayin'.

[Oudeis he/him]

Hoser

 

I have to run out. Full response forthcoming, but this cannot wait.

 

Sorry, I was referencing a broader trend I see, which is that many many people (yourself excluded) simply state as though it's been proven true that Renarin's visions are typical Truthwatcher powers, ignoring my objections and evidence. I wasn't careful enough to distinguish in my post that I was talking about the broader trend, rather than what you specifically were saying.

I, too, have a pet peeve against people who ascribe motivations to people. I grimace most severely to myself as I realize I've done to you a thing I hate when it happens to me. The fact that it was unintentional is irrelevant; I still did it. You have my sincere and true apologies, and I will make ever more stringent efforts to ensure I don't make this mistake again. Please accept an upvote.

[Scriptorian he/him]

Upvotes for all the civil responses!

[Oudeis he/him]

Tonight, on a very special 17th Shard...
 
EDIT: The long-anticipated response.
 

You're welcome to argue Dalinar isn't receiving Radiant visions, and I can't prove he is, but based on the evidence I'm guessing he probably he is.

This is basically about 95% of what I'm trying to get at with you. We keep going further and further down the rabbit hole. Every time we examine a piece of your evidence, I show you that it's a guess or supposition on your part, and you support it... with further guesses and supposition. How far back are we from the main point you were trying to make, now? And we've uncovered yet another layer of guesswork.

 

Before I address the issues you bring up here, let me point out that this cycle is pretty much the point of my argument. You state your case. I point out your case is based on guesswork. You support your guesses. I point out your support is more guesses. You support the support of the... and it goes on.

 

You asked me once what I meant by "building a castle on shifting sand." This is what I'm talking about. It's all sand. Look at my Tien post that you commented on. Yes, my primary argument is somewhat speculative. But every single piece of evidence I propose is unassailable. It's not based on "what I would do if I were Dalinar in this situation." It's not based on, "Well it seems obvious, doesn't it?" It's not based on, "Shallan's powers will remain a secret, despite the fact that the entire Alethi nobility is calling her Brightness Radiant and everyone knows she and Kaladin are the only two people who can operate the Oathgate." It's based on concrete words. Tien carved a photorealistic horse. There is no wiggle room there, no one can deny that he performed this feat. Whether or not my conclusion is a logical deduction from this fact is a separate issue, the point is, my one single "probably but not definitely true" conclusion is based on rockhard, solid evidence. There's no chance you're going to dispute that he carved the horse, forcing me to shore up my support with more support. That's the difference between trying to build a castle on bedrock, and trying to build it on sand.

 

And again. I'm not saying don't speculate. I'm just asking you to be careful. Don't state that something is true, or that it's "90% likely," or assume it as the premise of a question or argument, if you know it's just a guess on your part, founded on speculation. Or, if you do, realize that there are people who see you as an authority, and they will take you at your word.

 

Lastly, let me restate, because this bears repeating. I'm not saying I think you're definitely wrong. That's never what I was setting out to prove. Your position was, "This has to be (or is almost certainly) right because there's no other plausible alternative." So I'm not trying to utterly disprove your position, or prove that my proposed alternative is absolutely, 100% the thing that happened. What I am saying is, you cannot say "this is almost definitely the case" when it's just one of many options.

 

Kaladin takes control of his highstorm dream after he knows he's a Radiant and that it's real and not just a dream. Renarin is not in the same position. Claiming that Renarin is special because he can't control his visions before he learned he was a Surgebinder is unreasonable.

...Renarin is inhaling Stormlight to heal his eyes. He's talking to Glys. He hears screams when he touches Shardblades. Upon what, exactly, are you basing your assumption that Renarin has no idea he's a Surgebinder? Does he think eyesight just magically heals for everyone and screaming Shardblades are just something no one talks about like the Thrill?

 

This is the crux of what I'm talking about. You state, flat-out, that Renarin absolutely does not know he's a Surgebinder. You say that like it's a foregone conclusion. This is the part where you have to back it up. If you really mean it, back it up, absolutely. Don't give me a plausible scenario where he knows something's wrong but doesn't know what it is, you now have to prove it. This is the bar you have set for yourself by the way you phrased it. You could instead have said, "It's possible Renarin wasn't yet aware that he was a Surgebinder," but that's not what you said. Your statement rests on the premise that it is absolute fact that Renarin could not possibly have had the faintest inkling that he's a Surgebinder. If you can't prove that, then please don't state it so firmly in the first place. Don't tell me it's possible, or likely, or it's your personal guess or how you read the text. I'm not the one who has said, "Renarin definitely does know he's a Surgebinder" or "Renarin definitely does not," you are. The burden of proof is not on me. You're supporting your main argument with this fact, not me. I'm the champion of our ignorance; I set a much lower bar for myself, which is that we simply don't know, so all I have to prove is that at least two options are plausible. You're the one who said it as though it's unassailable fact, so back it up.

 

Or, admit that you tend to say things as though they're unassailable fact when they're really just your speculation.

As for Lift and Ym... you're the champion of Bayesian evidence. The fact that neither of them mention visions is weak Bayesian evidence, and is exactly as strong as some of the evidence you're claiming supports you. I'm only playing by the rules you established.
 

He only learned the name of his order, the Truthwatchers, when talking to the other three Radiants and Glys presumably remembered at that point.

...Wait, what? Exactly what leads you to believe that Renarin walked into the meeting of the Radiants, told everyone, "Hi guys, I'm a Radiant and I'm called a Truthwatcher," and you think he literally didn't know what he was or the name of the Order until he was halfway through that sentence? That he chalked up his ability to breath money and magically heal and his screaming Shardblade as "oh well, that's prolly nothing."? Can you give me any evidence at all to support your guess that he was unaware of his Surgebinding status until that moment?

And keep in mind, you just told me, "It's not evidence that Lift never saw visions just because she doesn't mention it," so you're not allowed to say, "Well Renarin never mentions being a Radiant, so that's evidence that he didn't know." Fair's fair.
 

 

If the Stone Shamans see Kaladin flying while holding Szeth's Honorblade, I get the feeling they'd make a (wrong) logical leap from that.

 

I've brought this up three times now. There's no reason Kaladin will fly around with Szeth's Blade. Anyone who's seen him with his Blade will go on to see him with Syl. At that point it will be incredibly unlikely that they'd think, "Sure, he's got a Blade that shapeshifts, but I bet he also has a different one and that it's an Honorblade."

And this is sorta what I'm coming down to. You're assuming the Shamans will have perfect knowledge, that they'll hear every rumor in the world and somehow they have some magic ability to know which ones are accurate and which ones are exaggerations, mistakes, brags or flat-out lies. You think they'll hear every story told across Roshar, which at this point prolly includes several dozen people at least manifesting Surgebinding powers, and that without fail they will be able to pick out, "Oh, hey, based on these conflicting reports, we can deduce for a fact that this Kaladin fellow has an Honorblade, but we'll also choose to be entirely wrong about the fact that he's a Surgebinder himself." This isn't Final Fantasy where everything any NPC says is not only relevant to the hero's quest, but color-coded and bolded so you can skim and only pay attention to the red words. That's not how actual rumor works.
 

You mean that Dalinar, leader of a group that is widely distrusted and carries major cultural baggage with it, wouldn't leverage the fact that a Radiant stopped The Assassin in White, who has been terrorizing the world at large for quite some time in order to help public opinion with the Radiants? Forgive my skepticism on this point.

Again. You're trying to support your other arguments by saying that there is one-and-only-one possible way things can happen. I'm trying to tell you that your argument is flawed, because there's at least one other possibility. You're basically telling me now that because I cannot prove that Dalinar will choose the tactical advantage of keeping Kaladin a secret over the public relations of good press for the Radiants, I have to accept that your guess is correct. I was never trying to prove that your guess was absolutely wrong, I'm showing that it's one of a number of possible outcomes, meaning the premise upon which you're basing your central argument is weak, and your central argument is thereby weak by extension.
 

If by "almost no one" you mean half of Bridge Four who he explicitly told that he got the Blade from Szeth and who got a good long look at it, and Navani + Dalinar + Shallan + co., and that's just on-screen post-battle.

So, the most loyal people of the inner circle, the ones with the most to lose if this information got out, are the only ones who know it. And you see no possibility other than that they will blab.
 

And, as noted, people are big on their Shardblade history. I don't know if it happened, but I wouldn't be surprised if someone took a sketch of the Honorblade. The days following the battle are incredibly poorly fleshed out in the book. We know next to nothing about them. Something something Brandon thought it would help the pacing. /grumble

Again... this is helping my point, not yours. I'm not trying to prove any one specific thing, I'm trying to say that you are expressing certainty about guesses. By admitting that we know next to nothing about what happens, you admit that your speculation is based on guesswork and supposition.

Also, as you pointed out, the only two people who could possibly have drawn it are Navani and Shallan. I don't think either would have. As to your assertion that people are big on Shardblade history... Amaram's Blade, with no provenance, is noted with vague interest, not fanatical scholarly obsession as you imply. Yes, people sorta care about Shardblades. No, this does not mean that any time anyone sees any Shardblade, they are immediately filled with a compulsion to draw it. This was a plot point earlier in the book. Shallan started sketching Blades specifically because so few people care about keeping an accurate record that even with most of the Blades of Alethkar stuck in one big city, being displayed in Duels and Chasmfiend Hunts, absolutely no one cared enough to bother drawing them until Shallan showed up.
 

Dalinar? Has never done anything with his Surges on-screen and may be too busy to learn how to appropriately for a few weeks. The only time he inhales Stormlight is in private with the other Radiants.

So, on the one hand, you assert the point that we have to accept as irrefutable fact that Dalinar will broadcast to the world, "This guy, Kaladin, killed the Assassin in White and now owns his Honorblade" so that it will look good for the Radiants.

Then, in the same post, you say that Dalinar will not only forgo learning how to use his awesome new powers, despite how incredibly useful they will be, and will in fact keep his identity a deliberate secret, a feat he was a total failure at accomplishing when he was trying to hide his visions, despite how much good press it would give him to be seen as a Radiant now, having been the person to fulfill the Vengeance Pact and lead Alethkar to the fabled home of their Gods.

This is what I'm talking about when I say that you cherry-pick. You hold facts up to one principle when that will support your guesses, then up to a contradictory one to support the same exact guess, and you can't understand why I have trouble believing that both irreconcilable facts are true.

@Hoser.

Occam's Razor: That's a fallacy in real life, and even more so in a book. In a book, it would basically lead to no character ever misunderstanding something, and "a character misunderstands something" is like 98% of literature. Also, I see no past evidence to support the theory that Mr. Sanderson will always choose to have the simplest, most obvious explanation be true.

Renarin and the Nightwatcher: I honestly don't know. It seems unlikely to me, for reasons you've already brought up. Please don't think I'm dismissing them by not addressing them; quite the opposite. I fully agree with you and I admit they're entirely valid. This is why the whole scenario fascinates me. We know very little, and it seems to conflict.

 

For my own points; recall we know almost nothing about Dalinar's wife, and her part of their history would perforce have been when Renarin was little. He does, as I said, possess a neurological defect, which is something people who went to the Nightwatcher have. Specious evidence, I admit, but I point it out in this case to say, if that is his Curse, he's had it most of his life, meaning he'd've had to ask his Boon when he was very, very young. Since that's the part of his life we know nothing about... We know his mom is non-Alethi, since he's got yellow hair. Maybe her family was closer to The Valley? Maybe as a young child he was taken to her family's estate? Maybe his mother went to see her, maybe Renarin tagged along, maybe as a child he unthinkingly asked her for a toy and was given a box to play with in exchange for asperger's and epilepsy. Kaladin himself notes that Renarin gets cagey when you ask him about it.

In short, this all seems extremely unlikely. However, I'm going to keep an open mind as I go forward, and hunt for more clues. Perhaps even ask Mr. Sanderson if the Firefight tour comes near me. As I say, there's a ton about Renarin we do not know. Maybe more information will shed some light on the situation.

As for your quote... you say, basically, that if we learn of a second influence, we'll have to consider if the phenomenon came from that source. What I'm saying is, phrasing it like that implies that until we have confirmation of a second source, we should not speculate that there might be one, no matter how unlikely Renarin's visions seem to be related to Surgebinding. That's the point I was trying to get at. I see no reason we have to wait until confirmation is given before we speculate, given cause. I've seen a lot of people who know he's a Surgebinder, know this one phenomenon happens to him, and assumes there's no option but that the two are related. I respectfully disagree with this assumption, while your quote makes it sound like you support it. That's all I was trying to say.

Edited December 14, 2014 by Ooklalhoo'Elin

[hoser he/him]

Tonight, on a very special 17th Shard...

...

@Hoser.

Occam's Razor: That's a fallacy in real life, and even more so in a book. In a book, it would basically lead to no character ever misunderstanding something, and "a character misunderstands something" is like 98% of literature. Also, I see no past evidence to support the theory that Mr. Sanderson will always choose to have the simplest, most obvious explanation be true.

Renarin and the Nightwatcher: I honestly don't know. It seems unlikely to me, for reasons you've already brought up. Please don't think I'm dismissing them by not addressing them; quite the opposite. I fully agree with you and I admit they're entirely valid. This is why the whole scenario fascinates me. We know very little, and it seems to conflict.

 

For my own points; recall we know almost nothing about Dalinar's wife, and her part of their history would perforce have been when Renarin was little. He does, as I said, possess a neurological defect, which is something people who went to the Nightwatcher have. Specious evidence, I admit, but I point it out in this case to say, if that is his Curse, he's had it most of his life, meaning he'd've had to ask his Boon when he was very, very young. Since that's the part of his life we know nothing about... We know his mom is non-Alethi, since he's got yellow hair. Maybe her family was closer to The Valley? Maybe as a young child he was taken to her family's estate? Maybe his mother went to see her, maybe Renarin tagged along, maybe as a child he unthinkingly asked her for a toy and was given a box to play with in exchange for asperger's and epilepsy. Kaladin himself notes that Renarin gets cagey when you ask him about it.

In short, this all seems extremely unlikely. However, I'm going to keep an open mind as I go forward, and hunt for more clues. Perhaps even ask Mr. Sanderson if the Firefight tour comes near me. As I say, there's a ton about Renarin we do not know. Maybe more information will shed some light on the situation.

As for your quote... you say, basically, that if we learn of a second influence, we'll have to consider if the phenomenon came from that source. What I'm saying is, phrasing it like that implies that until we have confirmation of a second source, we should not speculate that there might be one, no matter how unlikely Renarin's visions seem to be related to Surgebinding. That's the point I was trying to get at. I see no reason we have to wait until confirmation is given before we speculate, given cause. I've seen a lot of people who know he's a Surgebinder, know this one phenomenon happens to him, and assumes there's no option but that the two are related. I respectfully disagree with this assumption, while your quote makes it sound like you support it. That's all I was trying to say.

First, the mea culpas:

• I said that we know that Renarin hasn't been to the Nightwatcher.  That was wrong.  I appreciate you calling me out on it.  Thank you.  
• I used "we" when referring to the consequence of learning about a hypothetical second magical influence on Renarin.  I can't speak for anyone but myself.  The use of "we" implies grouping and exclusion and all sorts of bad things.  That was wrong.  I appreciate you calling me out on it.  Thank you.

On Occam's Razor:

• Do you really mean "fallacy?"
• I don't think of it as erroneous, as much as an imperfect algorithm.  When the evidence is ambiguous, contradictory or unclear, I can just stop and say "I don't know for sure" or I can speculate.  I have no problem w/using Occam's Razor as one of my methods when I choose to speculate.  What I need to be better at is identifying my methodology for reaching conclusions and not stating them as fact (see mea culpas above) or considering them to have been proven.  TBH, I wouldn't use Occam's Razor to speculate if I had a better method.  Do you have a perfect method?
• As for the rest of the paragraph past the word fallacy:  I don't get it.  Did I ever say that "Mr. Sanderson will always choose to have the simplest, most obvious explanation be true?"  It looks to me like you are trying to "reductio ad absurdum," which is a reasonable technique unless one misrepresents the argument one is intending to refute.  Misrepresenting the opposing side seems to me to turn reductio ad absurdum into straw man argumentation.  Navani even uses Occam's Razor in WoR.  As an imperfect method, it should lead to some amount of correct and incorrect conclusions in both fiction and real life. 

On Renarin visiting the Nightwatcher (or his seizures being a consequence of Dalinar visiting the Nightwatcher):

• I know nothing.  None of what I speculate here is factual. 
• I don't believe the Nightwatcher would curse Renarin as a consequence of Dalinar or anyone else's visit.
• He seems to have missed nearly all military training, suggesting that he had the seizures from a young age (before 8 or so).
• I doubt most mothers would bring a young child to be blessed/cursed by the Nightwatcher. 
• It's not that I didn't think about it, it's that I just dismissed it as absurd.  It still seems unlikely, but now that I know that at least one intelligent person considers it reasonable, I am happy to consider it a possibility going forward.

On using the word "we" and implications:

• Please call me out when my phrasing is loose and seems to discount your point of view.  I appreciate that. 
• Literally "phrasing it like that implies that until we have confirmation of a second source, we should not speculate that there might be one" is a fallacy.   Logically A->B does not imply ~A->~B. 
• At a less rigorous level, you are absolutely right.  My error was in dismissing the possibility that Renarin had visited the Nightwatcher.  That assumption led to me phrasing that problematically.  You are right and I apologize. 
• If I make a similar error in the future, I would prefer to have my assumptions called out directly, as in "Is it a known fact that Renarin hasn't visited the Nightwatcher?" " Can you direct me to where in the text it states that Ranarin hasn't seen the Nightwatcher" or "Even without any evidence of a second magical intervention in Renarin's life, I think that his visions are the result of something else.  Are you saying that I'm wrong to do so?"  Drawing unsupported implications from my statements and showing them to be absurd makes it harder for me to see where my incorrect assumptions or unsupported deductive leaps have occurred. 

Thanks for caring enough to discuss. 

[Oudeis he/him]

On Occam's Razor:

• Do you really mean "fallacy?"

From what I understand of Occam's Razor, it is indeed a fallacy, just like your A then ~B doesn't automatically mean ~B then A. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the Razor is, "Assume the simplest, most obvious explanation is true." Basically, of all the options, find the one most likely, even if it's only 30% likely, and assume it's true. People use it, and people can be right a lot using it, but it remains faulty logic which leads people to be sure of something that's not logically sound. It is my understanding that there's a fundamental difference between applying Occam's Razor and thinking, "Okay, this thing has a 95% chance of being right, so until we confirm it, let's just keep our eye on it and continue speculating." I now get the sense that when you say you're using Occam's Razor, you're not using the fallacy as I know it, you're doing the second thing.

• I don't think of it as erroneous, as much as an imperfect algorithm.  When the evidence is ambiguous, contradictory or unclear, I can just stop and say "I don't know for sure" or I can speculate ...  Do you have a perfect method?

I didn't mean to imply that no one should ever speculate without perfect knowledge. Sorry, you sorta caught me in the middle of a broader debate with Moogle about this. Speculation is amazing and I heartily encourage it, and you are in fact being far more rigorous in your speculation than I have so far given you credit for, and for that I apologize (and it's very kind of you to apologize in turn and recognize that you could be even more rigorous. It's just plain nice to talk to someone who sees rigor as a worthy goal.)

On Renarin visiting the Nightwatcher (or his seizures being a consequence of Dalinar visiting the Nightwatcher):

Tangent because I'm slightly confused. In the back of my mind, I've speculated that Dalinar's visit might have inflicted a Curse upon Renarin. Did I actually say this, and you're referencing that? Or did I not say this, and you independently speculate the same thing?

I more-or-less agree with you. I find it unlikely that the Nightwatcher would curse Dalinar's son for Dalinar's Boon. That said... I do wonder if it's possible. It would be cruel, and more to the point we're not sure if she can Curse someone who isn't present. I also state that if Renarin was Cursed, it must've been when he was very young. I agree with you that it would take a pretty quirky scenario to get Renarin close enough ask for a Boon... but it could happen. What if Renarin was born sicker even than now? Maybe he was born with seizures so bad they'd kill him. Maybe his mom took him to the Nightwatcher, asked to save his life, and for the same reasoning you just brought up, she gave both the Boon and the Curse to the same person; she reduced Renarin's fits to mild, infrequent seizures, and put him on the autistic scale.

OR. And I'm flying high on the speculation broomstick now. Dalinar always loved Navani. Maybe I'm going sorta Lifetime movie here, but I could see the case being made for her realizing that, but no one notices how it hurts her. She loves Dalinar, and all she wants is to find a way to earn his love in return. What if she hatches a desperate plan? What if she gets it into her head that giving Dalinar the perfect son will finally win his love? Maybe she goes to the Nightwatcher, and that's the Boon she wants. (This also sorta ties in to Nightwatcher-is-Cultivation, since it feels very Cultivation to do.) Shshshsh gives birth to Adolin, her handsome, strong, perfect Alethi prince son (this genetic modification also explains why he has almost no black hair, something that's bothered me if you're supposed to have hair proportional to your heritage and Dalinar is 100% alethi... either Shshshsh is about 600% non-Alethi, which would mean she's got 12 grandfathers, or the variance is ~49%, in which case why even have a standard at all, OR something hinky is going on). Then her Curse is to bear a second son, one who is NOT the perfect Alethi ideal, one who will be weak and sick and autistic, smart and built for the ardentia but eternally yearning to be a warrior.

...In my defense, you DID ask. Like I said, I've got nothing against rampant speculation, as long as it's admitted as such.

I guess, what it boils down to... we know practically nothing about Renarin, his circumstances, or his history. This, to me, makes him different from someone like Kaladin. We know a great deal about Kaladin. If someone wanted to start speculating on him, I'd be less comfortable, because there's not a ton of room. But for someone like Renarin? Yes. What little we know about him makes it unlikely he's been to the Nightwatcher, or that he's the result of the Old Magic. Yet... there's still SO MUCH MORE to learn about him. It's well within the bounds of possibility that something we learn will overturn all that we think we know.

In conclusion, I promise again to police myself better and not accuse you of things you didn't say or do. Also in conclusion, pondering about Renarin amuses me for now. So little is known about him, almost everything has to be speculation. As more information is revealed, I will be fascinated to see what which of my guesses will be close and which will be so far off the mark I'm at a different archery range.

[hoser he/him]

On Occam's shaving methodology:my understanding is similar to what I read on Wikipedia. It is a principle to be used in the absence of certainty. So,no,I don't consider it a fallacy. Do you have any support for your definition, particularly the part about the conclusions being regarded as true?

On Renarin's being cursed as the result of someone else's interaction with the Night watcher: there is a long-dead thread about Dalinar's boon and curse. In that thread,it was speculated that Renarin could have been affected.

I appreciate your passion for our little obsession. I still think that Renarin's visions are the result of his Radiance, as I think the prohibition on future sight will turn out to be nuanced. Thanks to you I will consider the alternatives and try to write more inclusively and carefully.

[Oudeis he/him]

And I'm not trying to say that I think it's impossible that we'll eventually learn that all Truthwatchers get prophetic sight during Highstorms. I just see an encompassing sense across the forums that this is the presumptive case, when I see a number of glaring inconsistencies which leads me to believe that another scenario is at least as, if not more, likely. None of it means that I don't think it's possible.

[Moogle]

I accidentally hit the downvote button on Outis' post here when I was trying to hit quote. If someone could correct it with an upvote, I'd appreciate it.

 

Also, and I don't mean to cause offense here, I'll be ducking out of this thread after this. I don't find this sort of discussion interesting, and ultimately it boils down to "hey you should word things to make it clear you're more uncertain and be aware that there's (unlikely) alternatives", which I don't think anyone here disagrees with in strict terms. I further think that even when people in general do accidentally state theories "like they're fact", most of the time we don't actually believe it's fact and that if asked we would say that and could correct this and edit our posts. We don't need to have our (literally read) statements disproven via presented unlikely alternatives, because people in general are rarely 100% certain on just about everything.

 

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And again. I'm not saying don't speculate. I'm just asking you to be careful. Don't state that something is true, or that it's "90% likely," or assume it as the premise of a question or argument, if you know it's just a guess on your part, founded on speculation. Or, if you do, realize that there are people who see you as an authority, and they will take you at your word.
 
Lastly, let me restate, because this bears repeating. I'm not saying I think you're definitely wrong. That's never what I was setting out to prove. Your position was, "This has to be (or is almost certainly) right because there's no other plausible alternative." So I'm not trying to utterly disprove your position, or prove that my proposed alternative is absolutely, 100% the thing that happened. What I am saying is, you cannot say "this is almost definitely the case" when it's just one of many options.

 
I'm not sure where my position in this thread is what you're claiming here ("Your position was, "This has to be (or is almost certainly) right because there's no other plausible alternative."). I have, I think, generally tried to be more careful about this in recent times.
 
You said the following:

Let me say this one last time in case it gets lost in the shuffle. It's still entirely possible. I cannot say with certainty that it's not the case; I think it goes against a lot of what we know. No other Surgebinder seems to have powers that come upon them uncontrollably after sixty days of experiencing them. Ym doesn't seem to see the future during Highstorms (though I'll grant maybe he just didn't mention his tendency to wake up after Highstorms having carved things on the walls).

 
"No other Surgebinder" is what you said. I provided examples via Kaladin and Dalinar, and argued against the idea that we would know if Ym did (which we most likely would not have). You responded that no, Dalinar's visions aren't related to his Bondsmithery, I responded with why I think they were, and provided further evidence that even if the highstorm dreams were not related to his Radiantness, he is most likely having other sorts of visions which are.
 
You're welcome to preach the values of keeping to unassailable evidence, rather than building speculation off of speculation. I agree that it makes it stronger arguments, and when I can I try to stick to doing that.
 
However, I cannot in every case stick to unassailable evidence. I have to work off of speculation based on speculation based on speculation in uncertain matters when the text is not kind enough to provide direct facts I can use. Speculation is useful! If I can use speculation to further speculate, that's nice. Theories are meant to be useful. The problem is when I claim they are unassailable fact, which, as far as I can tell, I have avoided doing so in this thread.
 
In this particular case, I find the objections/"glaring inconsistencies" you raise with regards to Renarin to be very very very weak, and very unfortunately the text has not been kind enough to say "Renarin's visions are 100% completely due to his sprenbond" so I can't make the same argument as you make with Tien. However, I still have major issues with the objections you raise regarding Renarin's visions, and I have some pretty good speculation that I can use to refute your points... so of course I'm going to use that.
 
In regards to the 90% likely thing (which has to do with another thread, and so I am spoilering for off-topicness):

I took my personal interpretations of the evidence, I looked at things, I decided I was incredibly sure of it. You presented various alternatives, none of which I found compelling, then started talking about how should I be more uncertain than I am. Which, uh, is pretty hard when the reason I find your alternatives to be so unlikely as to not be worth considering is a section in SA3 readings and you won't read my spoilers on that topic. We are working on different information, so naturally we're going to share different confidence levels on various theories.
 
I've said I'm not sure on that particular topic, but I'm not going to pretend I'm not confident in a theory when I feel it's that strong. When I say a theory is 90% likely, what I am saying is that if you were to gather all the other theories I've said are 90% likely (unfortunately I have done very few), I would expect to be wrong 1 time in 10 (expect as in the expected value of a distribution in statistics). There's also a nice corollary in that I would accept 9:1 odds (with some wiggle room for the human tendency to be risk-averse) bets on that particular topic, so if there's some sort of major flaw with my thinking processes and how I assign probabilities to propositions, someone could milk me of my cash.

 

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...Renarin is inhaling Stormlight to heal his eyes. He's talking to Glys. He hears screams when he touches Shardblades. Upon what, exactly, are you basing your assumption that Renarin has no idea he's a Surgebinder? Does he think eyesight just magically heals for everyone and screaming Shardblades are just something no one talks about like the Thrill?
 
This is the crux of what I'm talking about. You state, flat-out, that Renarin absolutely does not know he's a Surgebinder.

 
Uh, Renarin very clearly knows he's a Surgebinder as of the end of WoR. I think this is supported in the text when he literally shows up at a meeting of three Radiants and proclaims he's the fourth.
 
I was responding specifically to your point on Renarin having uncontrollable visions when Kaladin seems capable of controlling his later. Kaladin, after learning that the whole magic thing is real and he's got cool magic powers and no he's not cursed (which he has long discussions with Syl on), can totally control his visions. Great. You're claiming that because Renarin's are uncontrollable, this supports the idea that maybe they're not because he's a Radiant... but what I'm saying is that Renarin doesn't even know he's a Surgebinder for most of WoR (which is basically confirmed by the evidence, see next paragraph) and Kaladin had similar issues with uncontrollable visions before he was aware of the same thing. There is no evidence Renarin is aware what he can do is not just him going crazy and it's inside his head or he's cursed until after the final battle of WoR... and during that final battle, when he's uncontrollably scratching numbers into the wall, he's sort of freaked out beyond belief and shaking in his boots and is not in a good mental state where it might be he could control himself. So... I find your objection that most of the Radiants have "controlled" visions to be incredibly weak.
 
(On the Renarin thing: Dalinar asks in reference to why Renarin never brought up the fact he was a Surgebinder, "Why? Why didn’t you say anything?” and Renarin responds, “I thought it was me,” Renarin whispered. “My mind. But Glys, he says . . .”)
 

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As for Lift and Ym... you're the champion of Bayesian evidence. The fact that neither of them mention visions is weak Bayesian evidence, and is exactly as strong as some of the evidence you're claiming supports you. I'm only playing by the rules you established.
And keep in mind, you just told me, "It's not evidence that Lift never saw visions just because she doesn't mention it," so you're not allowed to say, "Well Renarin never mentions being a Radiant, so that's evidence that he didn't know." Fair's fair.

 
Sure, both are weak Bayesian evidence. But I didn't rest my entire argument on one piece of evidence that was weak, I had what I considered to be mounds of this sort of evidence. Also: just because two things are weak Bayesian evidence does not mean we should be equally moved to believe a theory due to them. I have avoided giving exact numbers for these things in the past, and I really really don't want to do it in the future. Suffice it to say that I think this evidence of yours is particularly weak.
 
The fact remains that we should not have, a priori, expected to hear about visions from Ym and Lift in one PoV in which there was no highstorm. You call this a "glaring inconsistency" (I think?), and I object strongly on this point.
 

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I've brought this up three times now. There's no reason Kaladin will fly around with Szeth's Blade. Anyone who's seen him with his Blade will go on to see him with Syl. At that point it will be incredibly unlikely that they'd think, "Sure, he's got a Blade that shapeshifts, but I bet he also has a different one and that it's an Honorblade."

And this is sorta what I'm coming down to. You're assuming the Shamans will have perfect knowledge, that they'll hear every rumor in the world and somehow they have some magic ability to know which ones are accurate and which ones are exaggerations, mistakes, brags or flat-out lies. You think they'll hear every story told across Roshar, which at this point prolly includes several dozen people at least manifesting Surgebinding powers, and that without fail they will be able to pick out, "Oh, hey, based on these conflicting reports, we can deduce for a fact that this Kaladin fellow has an Honorblade, but we'll also choose to be entirely wrong about the fact that he's a Surgebinder himself." This isn't Final Fantasy where everything any NPC says is not only relevant to the hero's quest, but color-coded and bolded so you can skim and only pay attention to the red words. That's not how actual rumor works.

 
Kaladin has already flown around while holding the Honorblade in full sight of an army. Sure, he probably won't do that forever, so future sightings will be Syl, but then he also plans on leaving Urithiru ASAP so it's not like anyone's going to see much more of him anyways. Bridge Four knows the Blade came from Szeth; do you think literally none of them might bring up while drunk and telling some of their wild stories to people in a bar? "Yeah, my commander killed the Assassin in White and took his Blade!" seems like the sort of story I'd expect to hear from a member of Bridge Four.
 
The Shamanate won't have perfect knowledge, I agree. I could be entirely wrong. We'll have to wait and see.
 

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So, on the one hand, you assert the point that we have to accept as irrefutable fact that Dalinar will broadcast to the world, "This guy, Kaladin, killed the Assassin in White and now owns his Honorblade" so that it will look good for the Radiants.

 
Please do not ascribe to me positions I do not hold. Here is what I said:

I don't believe it's been confirmed, but I find the idea that Dalinar hasn't told the entire world that the Assassin in White is dead and killed by Kaladin to be... questionable. It's a morale thing, if nothing else, and Dalinar really has no reason to hide that information.

 
You responded with the alternative that Dalinar would keep it quiet to preserve some sort of "tactical advantage" (which you never really expanded on and which would certainly be eroded by the fact that they're also telling the world Kaladin is a Radiant). Okay. Maybe. I still find that questionable and quite unlikely. I worded the part where I said "Dalinar really has no reason to hide that information" too strongly (though this is realllly the point where charitably reading other people's messages comes into play and reading this as "Dalinar really has no super strong important reason to hide that information" would be appreciated), but I did not say that I thought it was unassailable fact that Dalinar broadcast the fact that Kaladin killed Szeth to the world.
 

Also, as you pointed out, the only two people who could possibly have drawn it are Navani and Shallan. I don't think either would have. As to your assertion that people are big on Shardblade history... Amaram's Blade, with no provenance, is noted with vague interest, not fanatical scholarly obsession as you imply. Yes, people sorta care about Shardblades. No, this does not mean that any time anyone sees any Shardblade, they are immediately filled with a compulsion to draw it. This was a plot point earlier in the book. Shallan started sketching Blades specifically because so few people care about keeping an accurate record that even with most of the Blades of Alethkar stuck in one big city, being displayed in Duels and Chasmfiend Hunts, absolutely no one cared enough to bother drawing them until Shallan showed up.

 
I said no such thing and pointed out no such thing. In fact, I say the eact opposite. I said that on-screen, Navani and Shallan see the Blade, and then I add that we don't know what happened for days at Urithiru while Kaladin was there, during which time people other than Shallan and Navani could have asked to see and sketched the Blade.
 
As to the rest: okay it's not super insanely likely that someone drew it, though I do note that you're wrong that no one cared enough to bother drawing them. Lots of Shards did have sketches (maybe even all of them?), they just weren't super detailed and up to Shallan's exacting standards:
“. . . visual records of these suits are pathetic, Sister Nall,” Shallan was saying, handing Nall a bound leather portfolio. “We need new sketches. Though much of my time will be spent clerking for Brightlord Sebarial, I would like a few projects of my own during my time at the Shattered Plains. With your blessing, I wish to proceed.

...

“You’re letting her stay?” Adolin asked Nall.

“She wishes to update the royal record of Shardplate and Shardblades in the warcamps with new sketches,” Nall said. “This seems wise. The king’s current accounting of the Shards includes many rough sketches, but few detailed drawings.”

Even a rough sketch could catch that the Blade was abnormally short and lacking in decoration. (Maybe? I'm not an artist.)
 

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Then, in the same post, you say that Dalinar will not only forgo learning how to use his awesome new powers, despite how incredibly useful they will be, and will in fact keep his identity a deliberate secret, a feat he was a total failure at accomplishing when he was trying to hide his visions, despite how much good press it would give him to be seen as a Radiant now, having been the person to fulfill the Vengeance Pact and lead Alethkar to the fabled home of their Gods.

This is what I'm talking about when I say that you cherry-pick. You hold facts up to one principle when that will support your guesses, then up to a contradictory one to support the same exact guess, and you can't understand why I have trouble believing that both irreconcilable facts are true.

 

Again: please do not ascribe positions to me that I do not hold. I said:

Dalinar? Has never done anything with his Surges on-screen and may be too busy to learn how to appropriately for a few weeks. The only time he inhales Stormlight is in private with the other Radiants.

 

In the context of "hey the reports the Stone Shamans are going to get (if they get any at all) seem like they really could make them think Kaladin has the Honorblade".

 

I did not say, "Dalinar will forgo learning Surgebinding." That is a position you've made up, which is of course a weak position to hold.

 

Certainly Dalinar learning how to Surgebind and showing up is nice for public opinion. He may even glow a few times. However, he just found Urithiru, has to explore it, has a devastated army to care for, has to deal with the Everstorm, has to deal with a civil uprising in Alethkar against the queen (and by extension Elhokar), has to deal with the fallout from the murder of Sadeas, and ultimately is going to be busy. This, to me, makes it sort of unlikely that he'll be able to figure out his powers and will be showing them off in public in the few days it takes for a report to get to the Stone Shamans. Kaladin and Shallan show that learning how to actually Surgebind and do more than glow prettily is not immediately easy.

Edited December 15, 2014 by Ookla the Infinite

[Oudeis he/him]

It saddens me that you're completely missing my point.

 

You still refuse to see that all the things you state with such confidence aren't very likely. Even here, the most you're willing to concede is that you're still probably correct, and every other scenario I propose is "unlikely."

 

You're saying the Shamans will hear that Kaladin can Surgebind, and will assume this means he has the Honorblade, because every other Radiant will keep their powers hidden.

 

The entire Alethi nobility calls Shallan "Brightness Radiant." It is not, as you put it, an "unlikely scenario" that these rumors will state that she is a Radiant.

 

And this is my point. You just said that any scenario other than "The Shamans will come to the incorrect conclusion that Kaladin is a normal guy who killed Szeth and took his Honorblade, and that's why he has Windrunner powers" is an "unlikely scenario," but it's only even possible based on a premise that's more or less impossible.

 

You've stated that, as far as you're concerned, I'm asking you to put disclaimers on everything, even when you are 90% correct. That is not, nor has it ever been, what I've said. What I've said is, you're saying things like "90% correct" or "any other scenario is unlikely" or even just assuming it as the premise of a statement when it's an argument that is almost certainly wrong. I have said this, this clearly, a dozen times now, and you still claim I'm just nitpicking because you're 90% right instead of 100% right.